Management of solitary 1 cm to 2 cm liver nodules in patients with compensated cirrhosis: a decision analysis

Cost-Effectiveness of a Serum Biomarker Test for Risk-Stratified Liver Ultrasound Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Risk-stratified ultrasound screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), informed by a serum biomarker test, enables resources to be targeted to patients at the highest risk of developing cancer. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening for HCC in the Australian healthcare system.

METHODS

A Markov cohort model was constructed to test 3 scenarios for patients with compensated cirrhosis: (1) risk-stratified screening for high-risk patients, (2) all-inclusive screening, and (3) no formal screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to determine the impact of uncertainty. Scenario analyses were used to assess cost-effectiveness in Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and to determine the impact of including productivity-related costs of mortality.

RESULTS

Both risk-stratified screening and all-inclusive screening programs were cost-effective compared with no formal screening, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of A$39 045 and A$23 090 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), respectively. All-inclusive screening had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$4453 compared with risk-stratified screening and had the highest probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of A$50 000 per QALY. Risk-stratified screening had the highest likelihood of cost-effectiveness when the WTP was between A$25 000 and A$35 000 per QALY. Cost-effectiveness results were further strengthened when applied to an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cohort and when productivity costs were included.

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhosis population-wide screening for HCC is likely to be cost-effective in Australia. Risk-stratified screening using a serum biomarker test may be cost-effective at lower WTP thresholds.

Cost Effectiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance After a Sustained Virologic Response to Therapy in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Advanced Fibrosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis increases the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). After a sustained virologic response (SVR) to anti-HCV therapy, the risk of HCC is reduced but not eliminated. Recent developments in antiviral therapy have increased rates of SVR markedly. Guidelines recommend indefinite biannual ultrasound surveillance after SVR for patients with advanced fibrosis before treatment. Surveillance for HCC is cost effective before anti-HCV treatment; we investigated whether it remains so after SVR.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model to evaluate the cost effectiveness of biannual or annual HCC ultrasound surveillance vs no surveillance in 50-year-old patients with advanced fibrosis after an SVR to anti-HCV therapy. Parameter values were obtained from publications and expert opinions. Primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

With a constant 0.5% annual incidence of HCC, biannual and annual surveillance resulted in ICERs of $106,792 and $72,105 per QALY, respectively, with high false-positive rates. When surveillance was limited to patients with cirrhosis, but not F3 fibrosis, biannual surveillance likely was cost effective, with ICERs of $48,729 and $43,229 per QALY after treatment with interferon and direct-acting antiviral agents, respectively. In patients with F3 fibrosis, the incidence of HCC was 0.3% to 0.4% per year, leading to an ICER of $188,157 per QALY for biannual surveillance. If HCC incidence increases with age, surveillance becomes more cost effective but remains below willingness-to-pay thresholds only for patients with cirrhosis or with pretreatment aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index greater than 2.0 or FIB-4 measurements greater than 3.25. Sensitivity analyses identified HCC incidence and transition rate to symptomatic disease without surveillance as factors that affect cost effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

In a Markov model, we found HCC surveillance after an SVR to HCV treatment to be cost effective for patients with cirrhosis, but not for patients with F3 fibrosis.

Cost-effectiveness of antiviral treatment after resection in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients with compensated cirrhosis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) imposes a heavy disease burden on China due to its high morbidity and mortality. China accounts for about 50% of the total new cases and deaths worldwide. Most cases are related to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and are associated with cirrhosis at diagnosis. Antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) after resection in HBV-related HCC can reduce recurrence and improve survival. Such treatment is in fact recommended by Chinese guidelines. However, cost-effectiveness studies regarding this treatment are rare. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of NA treatment after resection in HBV-related HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis. A Markov model was constructed to simulate HBV-related HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis and detectable HBV DNA, with or without NA treatment after resection, followed up over their lifetime. Costs, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated for each strategy from the societal perspective. The parameters of the model were derived from published studies, government documents, and our surveys. Sensitivity analyses were used to explore the impact of parameters on the uncertainty of the results. NA treatment produced 4.22 QALYs, costing $39,898, while non-NA treatment achieved 2.80 QALYs, costing $16,048. The ICER of NA treatment versus non-NA treatment was $16,848/QALY, which was between 2 and 3 times gross domestic product per capita and was therefore deemed cost-effective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed that NA treatment was cost-effective, with a probability of 0.852.

CONCLUSION

NA treatment after liver resection was likely cost-effective in HBV-related HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2018).

Serum exosomal microRNAs combined with alpha-fetoprotein as diagnostic markers of hepatocellular carcinoma

Exosomal microRNAs have recently been studied as the potential diagnostic marker for various malignancies, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to investigate serum exosomal microRNA profiles as HCC diagnostic marker. Transmission electron microscopy and Western blot were used to identify serum exosomes. Deep sequencing was performed to screen differentially expressed microRNAs between HCC (n = 5) and liver cirrhosis (LC, n = 5) groups. Three upregulated and two downregulated microRNAs were selected for qPCR analysis. The levels of selected microRNAs were normalized to Caenorhabditis elegans miR-39 microRNA mimics. Serum exosomal level of miR-122, miR-148a, and miR-1246 was further analyzed and significantly higher in HCC than LC and normal control (NC) groups (P < 0.001), but not different from chronic hepatitis group (P > 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance of candidate microRNAs. Area under the curve (AUC) of miR-148a was 0.891 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.809-0.947] in discriminating HCC from LC, remarkably higher than alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (AUC: 0.712, 95% CI: 0.607-0.803). Binary logistic regression was adopted to establish the diagnostic model for discriminating HCC from LC. And the combination of miR-122, miR-148a, and AFP increased the AUC to 0.931 (95% CI, 0.857-0.973), which can also be applied for distinguishing early HCC from LC. miR-122 was the best for differentiating HCC from NC (AUC: 0.990, 95% CI, 0.945-1.000). These data suggest that serum exosomal microRNAs signature or their combination with traditional biomarker may be used as a suitable peripheral screening tool for HCC.

Modeling the benefits and harms of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma: Information to support informed choices

Surveillance by ultrasonography for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for individuals with cirrhosis is recommended. There is debate regarding the effectiveness of surveillance in reducing mortality, and there is little information on the harms available to patients considering surveillance. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of both the benefit and harms of surveillance. A Markov model was built to simulate outcomes of individuals aged 50 years with well-compensated cirrhosis entering surveillance. Following identification of a focal lesion by ultrasound surveillance, further investigations were defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer recall policy. Benefit and harm outcomes are expressed per 1,000 patients over 5 years. For every 1,000 patients in surveillance over 5 years, there are 13 fewer deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 12-14) compared with no surveillance, equating to a number needed to screen to prevent one death from HCC of 77. In comparison, many more individuals experienced harm through surveillance. For every 1,000 patients, 150 (95% CI, 146-154) had one or more false-positive tests equating to a number needed to harm from surveillance of 7. As a consequence of a false-positive test, 65 individuals required at least one additional unnecessary computed tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging and 39 required an unnecessary liver biopsy according to the recall policy. Surveillance benefits were sensitive to the incidence of HCC and the mortality benefit achieved by treatment. Harms were sensitive to the rates of false-positive testing and the frequency of liver biopsy.

CONCLUSION

There is a balance between the small absolute mortality benefit to surveillance for HCC and the numerically more frequent harms resulting from false-positive testing. Implementation of the recently revised American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommendations is predicted to reduce harms from unnecessary liver biopsy. (Hepatology 2017;66:1546-1555).

Ongoing challenges in the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

In 2001, the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) endorsed the possibility of achieving a non-invasive diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) for the first time. Since then, various refinements of the criteria and techniques capable of achieving this diagnosis and the role of plasma and tissue oncomarkers have been reported in the literature and have been accepted to different extents in various geographical areas. Such tools can also potentially imply prognostic significance. The present article critically discusses some of the most relevant and debated challenges which have emerged in this field, including the role of contrast-enhanced ultrasound, and of hepatocyte-specific magnetic resonance contrast agents, the pitfall of transient hepatic attenuation differences, the reliability of biopsy and the status of biomarkers.

Screening and detection of hepatocellular carcinoma

The increasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has led to the need to identify patients at risk for HCC so that a program of screening can be undertaken. Screening for HCC has led to earlier diagnosis of tumors and thus has aided in initiating optimal medical treatment earlier in the disease course. Advances in radiological techniques and the identification of more accurate serum tests to diagnose HCC continue to be important areas of study and exploration. In particular, there have been efforts to develop new tumor markers to aid in the diagnosis of HCC and guide therapy of tumors.

An overview of effective therapies and recent advances in biomarkers for chronic liver diseases and associated liver cancer

Chronic liver diseases (CLDs) such as hepatitis, alcoholic liver disease, nonalcoholic fatty liver, and their downstream effect cancer affect more than a billion of people around the world both symptomatically and asymptomatically. The major limitation for early detection and suitable medical management of CLDs and liver cancer is either the absent of symptoms or their similar manifestations as other diseases. This detection impediment has led to a steady increase in the number of people suffering from CLDs with an ultimate outcome of liver failure and undergoing transplantation. A better understanding of CLD pathogenesis has helped us to develop novel therapies for patients who are at greatest risk for CLD progression to the most serious disease cancer. With the discovery of aberrant molecular pathways in CLDs, it is now possible to delineate a road map for selecting targeted therapies for CLDs. Technological advances in imaging as well as the availability of several stable, sensitive, early, noninvasive biomarkers for distinguishing different stages of CLDs and cancer have greatly facilitated both drug target identification and real-time monitoring of response to therapy. Biomarkers are the most useful in clinical practice for liver diseases like hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which is associated with secretion of various tumor-related proteins or nucleotides in peripheral circulation. The need for the identification of CLD biomarkers remains high. This article reviews the etiologies of CLDs, the results of recent clinical trials of treatments for CLDs, and development of noninvasive methodologies for detecting CLDs and monitoring their progression toward HCC.

Evaluating the validity of model for end-stage liver disease exception points for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with multiple nodules <2 cm

Liver transplant allocation policy does not give model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) exception points for patients with a single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) <2 cm in size, but does give points to patients with multiple small nodules. Because standard-of-care imaging for HCC struggles to differentiate HCC from other nodules, it is possible that a subset of patients receiving liver transplant for multiple nodules <2 cm in size does not have HCC. We evaluate risk of post-transplant HCC recurrence and wait-list dropout for patients with multiple small nodules using competing risks regression based on the Fine and Gray model. We identified 5002 adult HCC patients in the OPTN/UNOS dataset diagnosed and transplanted between January 2006 and September 2010. Compared to patients with >1 tumor <2 cm, risk of developing recurrence was significantly higher in patients with one or more tumors with only one tumor ≥2 cm (SHR 1.63, p = 0.009), as well as in patients with 2-3 tumors ≥2 cm (SHR 1.84, p = 0.02). Dropout risk was not significantly different among size categories. HCC recurrence risk was significantly lower in patients with multiple nodules <2 cm in size than in those with larger tumors, supporting the possibility that some patients received unnecessary transplants. The priority given to these patients must be re-examined.

Hepatocellular carcinoma and other malignancies in autoimmune hepatitis

Hepatocellular carcinoma and extrahepatic malignancies can complicate the course of autoimmune hepatitis, and these occurrences may increase in frequency as the survival of patients with cirrhosis is extended and the prospect of new nonstandard immune-modifying intervention is realized. The frequency of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with autoimmune hepatitis and cirrhosis is 1-9 %, and annual occurrence in patients with cirrhosis is 1.1-1.9 %. The standardized incidence ratio for hepatocellular carcinoma in autoimmune hepatitis is 23.3 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 7.5-54.3) in Sweden, and the standardized mortality ratio for hepatobiliary cancer is 42.3 (95 % CI 20.3-77.9) in New Zealand. The principal risk factor is long-standing cirrhosis, and patients at risk are characterized mainly by cirrhosis for ≥ 10 years, manifestations of portal hypertension, persistent liver inflammation, and immunosuppressive therapy for ≥ 3 years. Multiple molecular disturbances, including the accumulation of senescent hepatocytes because of telomere shortening, step-wise accumulation of chromosomal injuries, and aberrations in transcription factors and genes, may contribute to the risk. Extraheptic malignancies of diverse cell types occur in 5 % in an unpredictable fashion. The standardized incidence ratio is 2.7 (95 % CI 1.8-3.9) in New Zealand, and non-melanoma skin cancers are most common. Outcomes are related to the nature and stage of the tumor at diagnosis. Surveillance recommendations have not been promulgated, but hepatic ultrasonography every six months in patients with cirrhosis is a consideration. Routine health screening measures for other malignancies should be applied diligently.

Detection of hepatocellular carcinoma at advanced stages among patients in the HALT-C trial: where did surveillance fail?

OBJECTIVES

Only 40% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are diagnosed at an early stage, suggesting breakdowns in the surveillance process. The aim of our study was to assess the reasons behind surveillance process failures among patients in the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-Term Treatment against Cirrhosis Trial (HALT-C), which prospectively collected HCC surveillance data on a large cohort of patients.

METHODS

Binary regression analysis was used to identify predictors of consistent surveillance, which was defined as having an ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein every 12 months. Surveillance failures among patients who developed HCC were classified into one of three categories: absence of screening, absence of follow-up, or absence of detection.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up of 6.1 years, 692 (68.9%) of 1,005 patients had consistent surveillance. Study site was the strongest predictor of consistent surveillance (P<0.001). After adjusting for study site, patient-level predictors of consistent surveillance included platelet count >150,000/mm(3) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.28; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-1.56) and complete clinic visit adherence (HR 1.72, 95% CI: 1.11-2.63). Of 83 patients with HCC, 23 (27.7%) were detected beyond Milan criteria. Three (13%) had late-stage HCC due to the absence of screening, 4 (17%) due to the absence of follow-up, and 16 (70%) due to the absence of detection.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance process failures, including absence of screening or follow-up, are common and potentially contribute to late-stage tumors in one-third of cases. However, the most common reason for finding HCC at a late stage was an absence of detection, suggesting better surveillance strategies are needed.

Should a radiological diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma be routinely confirmed by a biopsy? No

Modern multiphase diagnostic imaging allows diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma with high specificity in a large proportion of cases. Additional aspects of tumor biology also can be evaluated noninvasively through observation of tumor behavior (growth rate, satellites, vascular invasion) and other indicators of tumor biology (avid uptake of fluorodeoxyglucose, high circulating levels of tumor markers such as alphafetoprotein). Routinely requiring biopsy confirmation for diagnosis of HCC exposes many patients to unnecessary risk, may delay diagnosis, and in some cases leads to withholding of potentially beneficial treatment. Biopsy for assessment of tumor molecular markers is promising but remains investigational. When diagnosis of HCC is clinically evident by imaging criteria, tumor biopsy should not be required prior to initiating treatment.

The optimal contrast media policy in CT of the liver. Part II: Clinical protocols

The advent of multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) revolutionized abdominal imaging. In particular, the definitive assessment of CT injection protocols, for the evaluation of the liver parenchyma, is still a critical issue for radiologists. Over the last years, this feature encouraged several authors to address their efforts to find the most accurate delay between the contrast medium injection and the effective scan-start, for the identification and characterization of liver lesions. Technological developments of the present century such as number of slices, submillimetric collimation, and the use of multiple dynamic post-contrast phases per single examination, may all contribute to increase the radiation exposure of single patients. The aim of this review is to propose liver imaging protocols, taking into consideration different clinical needs such as patients with chronic liver disease, healthy patients with focal liver lesion, and oncological patients to minimize radiation exposure. Finally, two recent innovations in MDCT which illustrate the potential application of multi-energy computed tomography (MECT) and perfusion computed tomography (CTp) when evaluating liver parenchyma will be discussed in a short closing paragraph.

Survival and cost-effectiveness analysis of competing strategies in the management of small hepatocellular carcinoma

The aim of the present study is to compare the survival rates and cost-effectiveness of different treatment strategies for small (<2 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Markov chains are developed to model different management strategies for patients with compensated cirrhosis and small HCC. Probabilities of progression and survival and the likelihood of orthotopic liver transplantation are taken from the literature and incorporated into the models. As a starting population, 1000 patients are followed over a period of 10 years. Patients treated immediately with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) live as long as or longer than patients who are monitored expectantly with the intention of liver transplantation once the HCC has grown larger than 2 cm and a higher transplant priority score becomes available. With TACE, immediate treatment results in an average survival time of 4.269 years versus 4.324 years with the monitoring strategy. With RFA, immediate treatment results in an average survival time of 5.273 years versus 5.236 years with the monitoring strategy. In addition, the cost analysis shows that immediate treatment with either TACE or RFA is less expensive than monitoring. The better cost-effectiveness of immediate therapy versus the monitoring strategy remains robust and unaffected by variations of the assumptions built into the model. In conclusion, in patients with compensated cirrhosis and small HCC, a strategy of immediate treatment with either TACE or RFA prevails over a strategy of expectant monitoring with the intention of transplantation.