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Ali A, Hamou AA, Islam S, Muhammad T, Khan A. A memory effect model to predict COVID-19: analysis and simulation. Comput Methods Biomech Biomed Engin 2023; 26:612-628. [PMID: 35678237 DOI: 10.1080/10255842.2022.2081503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2021] [Revised: 05/16/2022] [Accepted: 05/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
On 19 September 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that asymptomatic individuals, those who have close contact with infected person, be tested. Also, American society for biological clinical comments on testing of asymptomatic individuals. So, we proposed a new mathematical model for evaluating the population-level impact of contact rates (social-distancing) and the rate at which asymptomatic people are hospitalized (isolated) following testing due to close contact with documented infected people. The model is a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations that is fitted and parameterized by least square curve fitting using COVID-19 pandemic data of Pakistan from 1 October 2020 to 30 April 2021. The fractional derivative is used to understand the biological process with crossover behavior and memory effect. The reproduction number and conditions for asymptotic stability are derived diligently. The most common non-integer Caputo derivative is used for deeper analysis and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection. The fractional-order Adams-Bashforth method is used for the solution of the model. In light of the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in terms of social distancing and isolation are being investigated. The reduction in the baseline value of contact rates and enhancement in hospitalization rate of symptomatic can lead the elimination of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aatif Ali
- Department of Mathematics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - Abdelouahed Alla Hamou
- Laboratory of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, Faculty of Sciences Dhar Al Mahraz, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Fez, Morocco
| | - Saeed Islam
- Department of Mathematics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - Taseer Muhammad
- Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences, King Khalid University, Abha, Saudi Arabia
| | - Alamzeb Khan
- Department of Pediatrics, Yale School of Medicine Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
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Khan A, Ikram R, Saeed A, Zahri M, Gul T, Humphries UW. Extinction and persistence of a stochastic delayed Covid-19 epidemic model. Comput Methods Biomech Biomed Engin 2023; 26:424-437. [PMID: 35499952 DOI: 10.1080/10255842.2022.2065631] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
We formulated a Coronavirus (COVID-19) delay epidemic model with random perturbations, consisting of three different classes, namely the susceptible population, the infectious population, and the quarantine population. We studied the proposed problem to derive at least one unique solution in the positive feasweible region of the non-local solution. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the proposed model are established. Our results show that the influence of Brownian motion and noise on the transmission of the epidemic is very large. We use the first-order stochastic Milstein scheme, taking into account the required delay of infected individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amir Khan
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology, Thonburi (KMUTT), Thrung Khru, Bangkok, Thailand.,Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Swat, Swat, KPK, Pakistan
| | - Rukhsar Ikram
- Department of Mathematics, Qurtuba University of Science and Information Technology, Hayatabad, Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - Anwar Saeed
- Department of Mathematics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Mardan, KP, Pakistan
| | - Mostafa Zahri
- Department of Mathematics, Research Groups MASEP & Bioinformatics FG, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Taza Gul
- Mathematics Department, City University of Science and Information Technology, Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - Usa Wannasingha Humphries
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology, Thonburi (KMUTT), Thrung Khru, Bangkok, Thailand
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Paul S, Mahata A, Mukherjee S, Roy B, Salimi M, Ahmadian A. Study of Fractional Order SEIR Epidemic Model and Effect of Vaccination on the Spread of COVID-19. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED AND COMPUTATIONAL MATHEMATICS 2022; 8:237. [PMID: 36043055 PMCID: PMC9412815 DOI: 10.1007/s40819-022-01411-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
In this manuscript, a fractional order SEIR model with vaccination has been proposed. The positivity and boundedness of the solutions have been verified. The stability analysis of the model shows that the system is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable at disease-free equilibrium point E 0 when R 0 < 1 and at epidemic equilibrium E 1 whenR 0 > 1 . It has been found that introduction of the vaccination parameter η reduces the reproduction number R 0 . The parameters are identified using real-time data from COVID-19 cases in India. To numerically solve the SEIR model with vaccination, the Adam-Bashforth-Moulton technique is used. We employed MATLAB Software (Version 2018a) for graphical presentations and numerical simulations.. It has been observed that the SEIR model with fractional order derivatives of the dynamical variables is much more effective in studying the effect of vaccination than the integral model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Subrata Paul
- Department of Mathematics, Arambagh Government Polytechnic, Arambagh, West Bengal India
| | - Animesh Mahata
- Mahadevnagar High School, Maheshtala, Kolkata, West Bengal 700141 India
| | - Supriya Mukherjee
- Department of Mathematics, Gurudas College, Kolkata, West Bengal 700054 India
| | - Banamali Roy
- Department of Mathematics, Bangabasi Evening College, Kolkata, West Bengal 700009 India
| | - Mehdi Salimi
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS Canada
| | - Ali Ahmadian
- Department of Law, Economics and Human Sciences, Mediterranea University of Reggio Calabria, 89125 Reggio Calabria, Italy
- Department of Mathematics, Near East University, Nicosia, Mersin, TRNC Turkey
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Khan A, Ikram R, Din A, Humphries UW, Akgul A. Stochastic COVID-19 SEIQ epidemic model with time-delay. RESULTS IN PHYSICS 2021; 30:104775. [PMID: 34580624 PMCID: PMC8457913 DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2021] [Revised: 08/21/2021] [Accepted: 08/28/2021] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
In this work, we consider an epidemic model for corona-virus (COVID-19) with random perturbations as well as time delay, composed of four different classes of susceptible population, the exposed population, the infectious population and the quarantine population. We investigate the proposed problem for the derivation of at least one and unique solution in the positive feasible region of non-local solution. For one stationary ergodic distribution, the necessary result of existence is developed by applying the Lyapunov function in the sense of delay-stochastic approach and the condition for the extinction of the disease is also established. Our obtained results show that the effect of Brownian motion and noise terms on the transmission of the epidemic is very high. If the noise is large the infection may decrease or vanish. For validation of our obtained scheme, the results for all the classes of the problem have been numerically simulated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amir Khan
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology, Thonburi (KMUTT), 126 Pracha Uthit Road, Bang Mod, Thrung Khru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Swat, kpk, Pakistan
| | - Rukhsar Ikram
- Department of Mathematics, Qurtuba University of Science and Information Technology, Hayatabad Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - Anwarud Din
- Department of Mathematics, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China
| | - Usa Wannasingha Humphries
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology, Thonburi (KMUTT), 126 Pracha Uthit Road, Bang Mod, Thrung Khru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
| | - Ali Akgul
- Siirt University, Art and Science Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics, TR-56100 Siirt, Turkey
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Gao DP, Huang NJ, Kang SM, Zhang C. Global stability analysis of an SVEIR epidemic model with general incidence rate. BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEMS 2018; 2018:42. [PMID: 34171003 PMCID: PMC7149115 DOI: 10.1186/s13661-018-0961-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2018] [Accepted: 03/16/2018] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, a susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infectious-recovered (SVEIR) epidemic model for an infectious disease that spreads in the host population through horizontal transmission is investigated, assuming that the horizontal transmission is governed by an unspecified function f ( S , I ) . The role that temporary immunity (vaccinated-induced) and treatment of infected people play in the spread of disease, is incorporated in the model. The basic reproduction number R 0 is found, under certain conditions on the incidence rate and treatment function. It is shown that the model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, it is observed that the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium depends on R 0 as well as on the treatment rate. If R 0 > 1 , then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable with the help of the Li and Muldowney geometric approach applied to four dimensional systems. Numerical simulations are also presented to illustrate our main results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Da-peng Gao
- School of Mathematics and Information, China West Normal University, Nanchong, P.R. China
| | - Nan-jing Huang
- Department of Mathematics, Sichuan University, Chengdu, P.R. China
| | - Shin Min Kang
- Department of Mathematics and the RINS, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Korea
| | - Cong Zhang
- School of Management, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Zigong, P.R. China
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Safarishahrbijari A, Teyhouee A, Waldner C, Liu J, Osgood ND. Predictive accuracy of particle filtering in dynamic models supporting outbreak projections. BMC Infect Dis 2017; 17:648. [PMID: 28950831 PMCID: PMC5615804 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2726-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2017] [Accepted: 09/12/2017] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND While a new generation of computational statistics algorithms and availability of data streams raises the potential for recurrently regrounding dynamic models with incoming observations, the effectiveness of such arrangements can be highly subject to specifics of the configuration (e.g., frequency of sampling and representation of behaviour change), and there has been little attempt to identify effective configurations. METHODS Combining dynamic models with particle filtering, we explored a solution focusing on creating quickly formulated models regrounded automatically and recurrently as new data becomes available. Given a latent underlying case count, we assumed that observed incident case counts followed a negative binomial distribution. In accordance with the condensation algorithm, each such observation led to updating of particle weights. We evaluated the effectiveness of various particle filtering configurations against each other and against an approach without particle filtering according to the accuracy of the model in predicting future prevalence, given data to a certain point and a norm-based discrepancy metric. We examined the effectiveness of particle filtering under varying times between observations, negative binomial dispersion parameters, and rates with which the contact rate could evolve. RESULTS We observed that more frequent observations of empirical data yielded super-linearly improved accuracy in model predictions. We further found that for the data studied here, the most favourable assumptions to make regarding the parameters associated with the negative binomial distribution and changes in contact rate were robust across observation frequency and the observation point in the outbreak. CONCLUSION Combining dynamic models with particle filtering can perform well in projecting future evolution of an outbreak. Most importantly, the remarkable improvements in predictive accuracy resulting from more frequent sampling suggest that investments to achieve efficient reporting mechanisms may be more than paid back by improved planning capacity. The robustness of the results on particle filter configuration in this case study suggests that it may be possible to formulate effective standard guidelines and regularized approaches for such techniques in particular epidemiological contexts. Most importantly, the work tentatively suggests potential for health decision makers to secure strong guidance when anticipating outbreak evolution for emerging infectious diseases by combining even very rough models with particle filtering method.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anahita Safarishahrbijari
- Department of Computer Science, University of Saskatchewan, 176 Thorvaldson Building, 110 Science Place, Saskatoon, SK - S7N5C9, Canada.
| | - Aydin Teyhouee
- Department of Computer Science, University of Saskatchewan, 176 Thorvaldson Building, 110 Science Place, Saskatoon, SK - S7N5C9, Canada
| | - Cheryl Waldner
- Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Campus Drive, Saskatoon, Canada
| | - Juxin Liu
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Saskatchewan, College Drive, Saskatoon, Canada
| | - Nathaniel D Osgood
- Department of Computer Science, University of Saskatchewan, 176 Thorvaldson Building, 110 Science Place, Saskatoon, SK - S7N5C9, Canada
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Raja Sekhara Rao P, Naresh Kumar M. A dynamic model for infectious diseases: The role of vaccination and treatment. CHAOS, SOLITONS, AND FRACTALS 2015; 75:34-49. [PMID: 32288363 PMCID: PMC7126230 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2015.02.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2014] [Accepted: 02/02/2015] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In this paper we propose a new model for infectious diseases spread having susceptible, infected, and recovered populations and study its dynamics in presence of incubation delays and relapse of the disease. The influence of treatment and vaccination efforts on the spread of infection in presence of time delays are studied. Sufficient conditions for local stability of the equilibria and change of stability are derived in various cases. The problem of global stability is studied for an important special case of the model. Simulations carried out in this study brought out the importance of treatment rate in controlling the disease spread. It is observed that incubation delays have influence on the system even under enhanced vaccination. The present study has clearly brought out the fact that treatment rate even in presence of time delays would contain the disease as compared to popular belief that eradication can only be done through vaccination.
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Affiliation(s)
- P. Raja Sekhara Rao
- Department of Mathematics, Government Polytechnic, Addanki, A.P. 523 201, India
| | - M. Naresh Kumar
- Software Group, National Remote Sensing Center (ISRO), Hyderabad, Telangana 500 037, India
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