Predictive Role of QTc Prolongation in Carbon Monoxide Poisoning-Related Delayed Neuropsychiatric Sequelae

Predicting delayed neurological sequelae in patients with carbon monoxide poisoning using machine learning models

INTRODUCTION

Delayed neurological sequelae is a common complication following carbon monoxide poisoning, which significantly affects the quality of life of patients with the condition. We aimed to develop a machine learning-based prediction model to predict the frequency of delayed neurological sequelae in patients with carbon monoxide poisoning.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective analysis was conducted in an emergency department from January 01, 2018, to December 31, 2023. We analyzed data from patients with carbon monoxide poisoning, which were divided into training and test sets. We developed and evaluated sixteen machine learning models, using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and other relevant metrics. Threshold adjustments were performed to determine the most accurate model for predicting patients with carbon monoxide poisoning at risk of delayed neurological sequelae.

RESULTS

A total of 360 patients with carbon monoxide poisoning were investigated in the present study, of whom 103 (28.6%) were diagnosed with delayed neurological sequelae, and two (0.6%) died. After threshold adjustment, the synthetic minority oversampling technique-random forest model demonstrated superior performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 and an accuracy of 0.83. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.9 and 0.8, respectively.

DISCUSSION

The study developed a machine learning-based synthetic minority oversampling technique-random forest model to predict delayed neurological sequelae in patients with carbon monoxide poisoning, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89. This technique was used to handle class imbalance, and shapley additive explanations analysis helped explain the model predictions, highlighting important factors such as the Glasgow Coma Scale, hyperbaric oxygen therapy, kidney function, immune response, liver function, and blood clotting.

CONCLUSIONS

The machine learning-based synthetic minority oversampling technique-random forest model developed in this study effectively identifies patients with carbon monoxide poisoning at high risk for delayed neurological sequelae.

Development of a risk prediction nomogram for delayed neuropsychiatric sequelae in patients with acute carbon monoxide poisoning

OBJECTIVES

Delayed neuropsychiatric sequelae (DNS) are critical complications following acute carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning that can substantially affect the patient's life. Identifying high-risk patients for developing DNS may improve the quality of follow-up care. To date, the predictive DNS determinants are still controversial. Consequently, this study aimed to construct a practical nomogram for predicting DNS in acute CO-poisoned patients.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted on patients with acute CO poisoning admitted to the Tanta University Poison Control Center (TUPCC) from December 2018 to December 2022. Demographic, toxicological, and initial clinical characteristics data, as well as laboratory investigation results, were recorded for the included patients. After acute recovery, patients were followed up for six months and categorized into patients with and without DNS.

RESULTS

Out of 174 enrolled patients, 38 (21.8%) developed DNS. The initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) level, CO exposure duration, oxygen saturation, PaCO2, and pulse rate were significantly associated with DNS development by univariate analysis. However, the constructed nomogram based on the multivariable regression analysis included three parameters: duration of CO exposure, COHb level, and GCS with adjusted odd ratios of 1.453 (95% CI: 1.116-1.892), 1.262 (95% CI: 1.126-1.415), and 0.619 (95% CI: 0.486-0.787), respectively. The internal validation of the nomogram exhibited excellent discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.962), good calibration, and satisfactory decision curve analysis for predicting the DNS probability.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram could be considered a simple, precise, and applicable tool to predict DNS development in acute CO-poisoned patients.

Demographics and clinical characteristics of carbon monoxide poisoning for patients attending in the emergency department at a tertiary hospital in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Carbon Monoxide (CO) is one of the most common environmental causes of acute intoxication globally. It can lead to the development of Delayed Neuropsychiatric Sequelae (DNS) which may develop in 2-40 days after remission of acute CO poisoning. DNS is defined by recurrent-transient neurological, cognitive, or psychological manifestations. This study was intended to describe the demographics and characteristics of CO poisoning patients attending at the Emergency Department (ED) and assess the association between CO intoxication and the development of DNS in a tertiary hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

A retrospective descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in subjects who were diagnosed with CO poisoning and attended to the ED at King Abdulaziz Medical City (KAMC) and King Abdullah Specialist Children's Hospital (KASCH) in Riyadh during the period from January 2016 to December 2021. Patient demographics, vitals, diagnostic tests, and oxygen therapy at initial presentation were documented. Patient medical records were reviewed at 2-40 days following CO poisoning for development of DNS. Ethical approval was obtained from King Abdullah International Medical Research Center (KAIMRC).

RESULTS

A total of 85 patients were diagnosed with CO poisoning and met the study inclusion criteria. Of those, 76% were adults with an average age of 32.36 (SD ± 15.20) and 51% were male adults. Five (6%) of the 85 patients developed DNS. Common symptoms included dizziness, nausea, and decreased visual acuity in 40% of the cases. The development of DNS manifestations was most likely (80%) to occur at 2 to 10 days after the initial incident. Inferential statistics showed that BMI (p-value = 0.021) and age group (p-value = 0.029) were significantly associated with COHb level, which was not the case for gender and the presence of clinical manifestation. Furthermore, Gender was significantly associated with the development of DNS (20% male vs. 80% female, p = 0.050).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study are consistent with previous published studies showing low proportions of patients who were exposed to CO poisoning at risk of developing DNS. Further larger-scale multicenter studies are needed to assess the factors associated with the development of DNS for patients with CO poisoning.

Incidence, timing, location, risk factors, and nomogram of lower extremity deep venous thrombosis after acute carbon monoxide poisoning

INTRODUCTION

Data on lower extremity deep venous thrombosis (DVT) following acute carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning are lacking. This study aimed to identify the incidence rate, timing, locations, risk factors, and nomogram of lower extremity DVT after acute CO poisoning.

METHODS

A total of 203 patients with acute CO poisoning from October 2019 to April 2021 were included in this retrospective study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors associated with lower extremity DVT. Nomogram was drawn and area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to predict lower extremity DVT.

RESULTS

Overall, 14.3% (29/203) had lower extremity DVT, with incidence rates of 2.5% (5/203) for proximal DVT and 11.8% (24/203) for distal DVT. The lower extremity DVTs involved intermuscular vein in 28 patients, popliteal vein in 5 patients, and posterior tibial vein in 3 patients. The mean time from end of exposure to diagnosis of lower extremity DVT was 1.24 days. Among 29 lower extremity DVT cases, 6 (23.1%) DVT cases had thrombolysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that long coma duration (P < 0.001) and high D-dimer levels (P < 0.001) were significantly associated with lower extremity DVT. The discrimination of nomogram was good with AUC of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.89-0.98).

CONCLUSION

Clinicians should be aware of and concerned with lower extremity DVT after acute CO poisoning, especially in patients with long coma duration and high D-dimer levels.

[Carbon monoxide intoxication-New aspects and current guideline-based recommendations]

Carbon monoxide poisoning is a common and potentially life-threatening intoxication, showing an interindividual variety of unspecific symptoms as well as late neurological and other sequelae. Two new German guidelines (S2k guidelines diagnosis and treatment of carbon monoxide poisoning as well as S3 guidelines oxygen therapy in the acute care of adult patients) focus on current evidence-based information on diagnostics as well as therapeutic options with considerable uncertainty remaining. This review summarizes current information and presents a flow scheme for daily practical use.

Validation of Diagnostic Codes to Identify Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Taiwan’s Claims Data

Purpose: Previous studies identified the study cohort or outcome of carbon monoxide poisoning (COP) by using the relevant disease diagnosis codes in secondary databases, but the validity of diagnosis codes of COP is unclear in such secondary databases. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of case definitions for COP using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) and Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) diagnosis codes in Taiwan’s health insurance claims data.

Methods: We selected a 10% simple random sample from an original cohort of patients newly undergoing carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) testing under any clinical diagnosis at four Chang Gung Memorial Hospitals in Taiwan during 2011–2020. Two clinical doctors independently ascertained the COP diagnosis by reviewing the medical records as the reference standard. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of various case definitions (e.g., ICD-9-CM code, ICD-10-CM code and the uses of hyperbaric oxygen therapy) in the claims data.

Results: We randomly selected 557 cases from the original cohort of 5,571 cases newly receiving COHb test in the study hospitals. We found 90, 35, and 9 cases were true-positive, false-positive, and false-negative episodes of COP, respectively, among 278 cases with an ICD-9-CM code of 986. A further 111, 34, and 6 cases were true-positive, false-positive, and false-negative episodes of COP, respectively, among 279 cases with an ICD-10-CM code of T58. Using ICD-9-CM codes, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for COP were 90.9, 80.4, 72, and 94.1%, respectively. Using ICD-10-CM codes they were 94.9, 79, 76.6, and 95.5%, respectively. PPV typically increased when COP was the primary diagnosis and could reach 100% if patients with ICD-CM code 986 or T58 also received hyperbaric oxygen therapy during hospitalization.

Conclusion: The COP-related ICD-CM codes alone did not accurately identify COP patients, but accuracy improved after including oxygen therapy data with the ICD-CM codes in Taiwan’s claims data.

Derivation and Validation of a Score for Predicting Poor Neurocognitive Outcomes in Acute Carbon Monoxide Poisoning

IMPORTANCE

Preventing neurocognitive sequelae is a major goal of treating acute carbon monoxide (co) poisoning. There is a lack of reliable score systems exist for assessing the probability of these sequelae.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a novel clinical scoring system for predicting poor neurocognitive outcomes after acute co poisoning.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prognostic study included derivation and validation cohorts based on consecutive patient data prospectively collected at university hospitals from January 2006 to July 2021 in Wonju, Republic of Korea, and from August 2016 to June 2020 in Incheon, Republic of Korea. Participants included individuals aged 16 years or older admitted with co poisoning. Data were analyzed from October 2021 to January 2022.

EXPOSURES

Clinical and laboratory variables.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The outcome of interest was neurocognitive sequelae at 4 weeks after co poisoning. Logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of poor neurocognitive outcomes in the derivation cohort. Outcomes were assessed using the Global Deterioration Scale [GDS] at 1-month after co exposure and classified as good (1-3 points) or poor (4-7 points).

RESULTS

A total of 1282 patients (median [IQR] age, 47.0 [35.0-59.0] years; 810 [63.2%] men) were assessed, including 1016 patients in the derivation cohort and 266 patients in the validation cohort. The derivation cohort included 126 patients (12.4%) with poor GDS scores. Among 879 patients in the derivation cohort with 1-year follow-up data, 757 (86.1%) had unchanged GDS scores, 102 (11.6%) had improved GDS scores, and 20 (2.3%) had worsened GDS scores. In the final prediction model, age older than 50 years (1 point), Glasgow Coma Scale score of 12 or less (1 point), shock (1 point), serum creatine kinase level greater than 320 U/L at emergency department presentation (1 point), and no use of hyperbaric oxygen therapy (1 point) remained factors significantly associated with worse outcome; therefore, this scoring system was called COGAS (creatine kinase, hyperbaric oxygen therapy, Glasgow Coma Scale, age, shock). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for COGAS score was 0.862 (95% CI, 0.828-0.895) for the derivation cohort and 0.870 (95% CI, 0.779-0.961) for the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that assessing the COGAS score during the early phase of co poisoning may help identify patients at risk of poor neurocognitive sequelae.

Association between Glasgow Coma Scale in Early Carbon Monoxide Poisoning and Development of Delayed Neurological Sequelae: A Meta-Analysis

A significant number of people experience delayed neurologic sequelae after acute carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) can be used to predict delayed neurologic sequelae occurrence efficiently and without any restrictions. Here, we investigated the association between a low GCS score observed in cases of early CO poisoning and delayed neurologic sequelae development through a meta-analysis. We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for studies on GCS as a predictor of delayed neurologic sequelae occurrence in patients with CO poisoning in June 2021. Two reviewers independently extracted study characteristics and pooled data. We also conducted subgroup analyses for the cutoff point for GCS. To assess the risk of bias of each included study, we used the quality in prognosis studies tool. We included 2328 patients from 10 studies. With regard to patients with acute CO poisoning, in the overall pooled odds ratio (OR) of delayed neurologic sequelae development, those with a low GCS score showed a significantly higher value and moderate heterogeneity (OR 2.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.10−4.23, I2 = 33%). Additionally, in subgroup analyses according to the cutoff point of GCS, the development of delayed neurologic sequelae was still significantly higher in the GCS < 9 group (OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.91−4.12, I2 = 34%) than in the GCS < 10 or GCS < 11 groups (OR 4.24, 95% CI 1.55−11.56, I2 = 48%). An initial low GCS score in patients with early CO poisoning was associated with the occurrence of delayed neurologic sequelae. Additionally, GCS was quickly, easily, and accurately assessed. It is therefore possible to predict delayed neurologic sequelae and establish an active treatment strategy, such as hyperbaric oxygen therapy, to minimize neurological sequelae using GCS.

Early neuroimaging and delayed neurological sequelae in carbon monoxide poisoning: a systematic review and meta-analysis

We aimed to assess the evidence regarding the usefulness of brain imaging as a diagnostic tool for delayed neurological sequelae (DNS) in patients with acute carbon monoxide poisoning (COP). Observational studies that included adult patients with COP and DNS were retrieved from Embase, MEDLINE, and Cochrane Library databases in December 2020 and pooled using a random-effects model. Seventeen studies were systematically reviewed. Eight and seven studies on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT), respectively, underwent meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of MRI for diagnosis of DNS were 70.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 64.8–76.3%, I² = 0%) and 84.2% (95% CI 80.1–87.6%, I² = 63%), respectively. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of CT were 72.9% (95% CI 62.5–81.3%, I² = 8%) and 78.2% (95% CI 74.4–87.1%, I² = 91%), respectively. The areas under the curve for MRI and CT were 0.81 (standard error, 0.08; Q* = 0.74) and 0.80 (standard error, 0.05, Q* = 0.74), respectively. The results indicate that detecting abnormal brain lesions using MRI or CT may assist in diagnosing DNS in acute COP patients.

Real-world effectiveness of hyperbaric oxygen therapy for delayed neuropsychiatric sequelae after carbon monoxide poisoning

To assess real-world effectiveness of hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT) on delayed neuropsychiatric sequelae (DNS) after carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning we conducted a retrospective review of patients with CO poisoning admitted to Linkou Chang-Gung Memorial Hospital, Taiwan's largest medical center, during 2009-2015. We included patients developing DNS after CO poisoning and compared improvements in neuropsychiatric function, with and without HBOT, after 12 months post-DNS to understand differences in recovery rates. DNS improvement-associated factors were also evaluated. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to assess the role of time elapsed between DNS diagnosis and HBOT initiation in predicting DNS improvement. A total of 62 patients developed DNS, of whom 11 recovered while the rest did not. Possible factors predicting DNS improvement included receiving HBOT post-DNS (72.7% vs 25.5%; P = 0.006), and treatment with more than three HBOT sessions during acute stage CO poisoning (81.8% vs 27.5%; P = 0.003). The relevant area under the ROC curve was 0.789 (95% CI 0.603-0.974), and the best cut-off point was 3 days post-DNS diagnosis, with 87.5% sensitivity and 61.5% specificity. Early HBOT in patients who developed DNS after CO poisoning significantly improved their DNS symptoms, with treatment effects sustained for 1 year after DNS diagnosis.

Incidence patterns of nervous system diseases after carbon monoxide poisoning: a retrospective longitudinal study in South Korea from 2012 to 2018

Objective

To analyze the incidence patterns of nervous system diseases in survivors of carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning using nationwide claims data from South Korea.

Methods

A national cohort was abstracted from a database that includes patients diagnosed with CO poisoning between January 2012 and December 2018. For all nervous system diseases, we investigated the frequency, pattern of incidence, effect of intensive care unit admission, and the standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) to estimate the risk of nervous system disease after CO poisoning.

Results

Of 26,778 patients, 18,720 (69.9%) were diagnosed with nervous system diseases after CO poisoning. The most common disease was disorders of sleep initiation and maintenance (n=701, 3.74%), followed by tension-type headache (n=477, 2.55%) and anoxic brain injury (n=406, 2.17%). Over half of the nervous system diseases occurred within the first year after CO poisoning. The cumulative hazard ratio for nervous system diseases in patients admitted to the intensive care unit was 2.25 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.07–2.44). Among the frequent nervous system diseases after CO poisoning, patients had a higher risk of disorders of initiating and maintaining sleep (SIR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.52–1.71), tension-type headache (SIR, 2.41; 95% CI, 2.23–2.61), anoxic brain injury (SIR, 58.76; 95% CI, 53.95–63.88), and post-zoster neuralgia (SIR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.70–2.20).

Conclusion

Patients who experience CO poisoning are at higher risk for several nervous system diseases. Therefore, monitoring for specific nervous system diseases is important after CO poisoning within the first year.

Neurocognitive sequelae after carbon monoxide poisoning and hyperbaric oxygen therapy

Carbon monoxide (CO) has been the leading cause of poisoning mortality in many countries and hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) is a widely accepted treatment for CO poisoning. However, some patients with CO poisoning will still develop neurocognitive sequelae regardless of HBO therapy, which can persist since CO poisoning or be present days to weeks after a recovery from CO poisoning. HBO has been used in the prevention and treatment of neurocognitive sequelae after CO poisoning, and some mechanisms are also proposed for the potential neuroprotective effects of HBO on the neurocognitive impairment after CO poisoning, but there is still controversy on the effectiveness of HBO on neurocognitive sequelae after CO poisoning. In this paper, we briefly introduce the neurocognitive sequelae after CO poisoning, summarize the potential predictive factors of neurocognitive sequelae, and discuss the use of HBO in the treatment and prevention of neurocognitive sequelae after CO poisoning.

Development of delayed neurologic sequelae in acute carbon monoxide poisoning cases caused by briquette-based kotatsu: A case-control study

Briquette-based kotatsu, a traditional Japanese heating system, is still used in rural areas and has been linked to the development of acute carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of delayed neurologic sequelae (DNS) in patients with acute CO poisoning caused by briquette-based kotatsu.This retrospective study included 17 patients treated for acute CO poisoning due to briquette-based kotatsu, between April 2017 and March 2020. Patients were divided into either a sequelae group (3 patients) or a non-sequelae group (14 patients) based on the presence or absence, respectively, of DNS. Demographic data, kotatsu characteristics, clinical findings, and therapies were compared between the 2 groups.Significant differences were noted in patient posture during their initial discovery. Specifically, all non-sequelae patients only had their legs under the kotatsu quilt and all sequelae patients had their entire bodies under the kotatsu quilt (P = .001). There were no statistically significant differences in carbon monoxide levels in hemoglobin (CO-Hb) or the creatine-kinase myocardial band (CK-MB), between the 2 groups; however, troponin-I levels were significantly higher in the sequelae group (P = .026). Abnormal head imaging findings were noted in 2 sequelae-group patients, with a significant difference between the groups (P = .025).We speculate that acute CO poisoning, caused by briquette-based kotatsu, may lead to DNS more frequently in patients in who cover their entire body with the kotatsu quilt and are found in this position. Patients should be warned about the dangers of acute CO poisoning when using briquette-based kotatsu.

Risk factors for delayed encephalopathy following carbon monoxide poisoning: Importance of the period of inability to walk in the acute stage

OBJECTIVE

Delayed neurological sequelae (DNS) is a serious complication that occurs after acute carbon monoxide (CO) intoxication. The study identified factors for predicting DNS development for the purpose of improving CO intoxication treatment strategies.

METHODS

The medical records of 65 patients admitted to Shizuoka Saiseikai General Hospital between 2004 and 2020 due to CO poisoning were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed, using a range of evaluated items as explanatory variables and the development of DNS as the response variable.

RESULTS

Patients who developed DNS were found to have higher peak creatine kinase (CK) (odds ratio, 1.0003; 95% CI, 1.0001-1.0005; P<0.001), and experienced a greater number of days during which walking was impossible in the acute stage following intoxication (odds ratio, 1.011; 95% CI, 1.005-1.018; P<0.001) according to the univariate analysis. Multivariate analyses indicated that DNS development was related to the score, peak CK (U/L) + 40 × the number of days in which walking was impossible. The model demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.91-1.00), and DNS was predicted with 100% sensitivity and 82% specificity.

CONCLUSION

An indicator that incorporates the number of days that walking is impossible for a patient could be useful in planning therapeutic strategies.

Blood carboxyhemoglobin elimination curve, half-lifetime, and arterial-venous differences in acute phase of carbon monoxide poisoning in ovine smoke inhalation injury model

Smoke inhalation injury (SII) affects more than 50,000 people annually causing carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. Although the increased blood level of carboxyhemoglobin (CO-Hb) is frequently used to confirm the diagnosis of SII, knowledge of its elimination in the acute phase is still limited. The aim of this study is to determine CO-Hb elimination rates and their differences in arterial (aCO-Hb) and mixed-venous (vCO-Hb) blood following severe SII in a clinically relevant ovine model. Forty-three chronically instrumented female sheep were subjected to SII (12 breaths, 4 sets) through tracheostomy tube under anesthesia and analgesia. After the SII, sheep were awakened and placed on a mechanical ventilator (FiO₂ = 1.0, tidal volume 12 mL/kg, and PEEP = 5cmH₂O) and monitored. Arterial and mixed-venous blood samples were withdrawn simultaneously for blood gas analysis at various time points to determine CO-HB half-lifetime and an elimination curve. The mean of highest aCO-Hb level during SII was 70.8 ± 13.9%. The aCO-Hb elimination curve showed an approximated exponential decay during the first 60 min. Per mixed linear regression model analysis, aCO-Hb significantly (p < 0.001) declined (4.3%/minute) with a decay constant lambda of 0.044. With this lambda, mean lifetime and half-lifetime of aCO-Hb were 22.7 and 15.7 min, respectively. The aCO-Hb was significantly lower compared to vCO-Hb at all-time points (0-180 min). To our knowledge, this is the first report describing CO-Hb elimination curve in the acute phase after severe SII in the clinically relevant ovine model. Our data shows that CO-Hb is decreasing in linear manner with supportive mechanical ventilation (0-60 min). The results may help to understand CO-Hb elimination curve in the acute phase and improvement of pre-hospital and initial clinical care in patients with CO poisoning.