Risk Factors for Prolonged Length of Stay of Older Patients in an Academic Emergency Department: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Optimizing older patient care in emergency departments: a comprehensive survey of current practices and challenges in Northern Italy

BACKGROUND

The progressive aging of the population and the increasing complexity of health issues contribute to a growing number of older individuals seeking emergency care. This study aims to assess the state of the art of care provided to older people in the Emergency Departments of Lombardy, the most populous region in Italy, counting over 2 million people aged 65 years and older.

METHODS

An online cross-sectional survey was developed and disseminated among emergency medicine physicians and physicians affiliated to the Lombardy section of the Italian Society of Geriatrics and Gerontology (SIGG), during June and July 2023. The questionnaire covered hospital profiles, geriatric consultation practices, risk assessment tools, discharge processes and perspectives on geriatric emergency care.

RESULTS

In this mixed method research, 219 structured interviews were collected. The majority of physicians were employed in hospitals, with 54.7% being geriatricians. Critical gaps in older patient's care were identified, including the absence of dedicated care pathways, insufficient awareness of screening tools, and a need for enhanced professional training.

CONCLUSIONS

Tailored protocols and geriatric educational programs are crucial for improving the quality of emergency care provided to older individuals. These measures might also help relieve the burden on the Emergency Departments, thereby potentially enhancing overall efficiency and ensuring better outcomes.

Machine learning-based prediction of hospital prolonged length of stay admission at emergency department: a Gradient Boosting algorithm analysis

Objective

This study aims to develop and compare different models to predict the Length of Stay (LoS) and the Prolonged Length of Stay (PLoS) of inpatients admitted through the emergency department (ED) in general patient settings. This aim is not only to promote any specific model but rather to suggest a decision-supporting tool (i.e., a prediction framework).

Methods

We analyzed a dataset of patients admitted through the ED to the "Sant"Orsola Malpighi University Hospital of Bologna, Italy, between January 1 and October 26, 2022. PLoS was defined as any hospitalization with LoS longer than 6 days. We deployed six classification algorithms for predicting PLoS: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Gradient Boosting (GB), AdaBoost, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and logistic regression (LoR). We evaluated the performance of these models with the Brier score, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity (recall), specificity, precision, and F1-score. We further developed eight regression models for LoS prediction: Linear Regression (LR), including the penalized linear models Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Ridge and Elastic-net regression, Support vector regression, RF regression, KNN, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression. The model performances were measured by their mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean relative error. The dataset was randomly split into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%).

Results

A total of 12,858 eligible patients were included in our study, of whom 60.88% had a PloS. The GB classifier best predicted PloS (accuracy 75%, AUC 75.4%, Brier score 0.181), followed by LoR classifier (accuracy 75%, AUC 75.2%, Brier score 0.182). These models also showed to be adequately calibrated. Ridge and XGBoost regressions best predicted LoS, with the smallest total prediction error. The overall prediction error is between 6 and 7 days, meaning there is a 6-7 day mean difference between actual and predicted LoS.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate the potential of machine learning-based methods to predict LoS and provide valuable insights into the risks behind prolonged hospitalizations. In addition to physicians' clinical expertise, the results of these models can be utilized as input to make informed decisions, such as predicting hospitalizations and enhancing the overall performance of a public healthcare system.

Flow through the Emergency Department for Patients Presenting with Substance Use Disorder in Alberta, Canada

INTRODUCTION

Since 2016 the province of Alberta, Canada, has seen a significant increase in substance use disorder (SUD) presentations to the emergency department (ED) with a large surge during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this retrospective study we deconstruct the total length of stay (LOS) in the ED into stages for patients presenting with SUD and estimate the effects of covariates on the time to transition between stages.

METHODS

Using the Canadian Coding Standards for International Classification of Diseases, 10^th Modification, codes F10.0-F19.9 and T36.0-T50.9, we extracted data from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System between April 1, 2019-March 31, 2020 on all ED presentations for SUD by Alberta residents. We used a multistate model to deconstruct the EDLOS into eight mutually exclusive states and determine which factors affected the time spent in each state.

RESULTS

We analyzed 66,880 presentations (37,530 patients). The mean age was 37.2 years, and 61% were male. The median total LOS in the ED was 6 hours 13 minutes. Patients presenting with methamphetamines (METH) intoxication and patients from low-income neighborhoods had significantly increased transition times between all states. Opposite this, opiate use was associated with faster transition times between almost all states. Metro EDs experienced slower transitions when attempting to discharge or admit patients when compared to urban or rural EDs. Emergency department crowding also had a dramatic effect on physician initial assessment times, while discharge and admission times in patients presenting with SUD were also significantly affected.

CONCLUSION

Patients with SUD experience a variety of delays during their ED stay. Those with METH intoxication and those from the lowest income neighborhoods were most likely to experience slower transitions from state to state in the ED and may benefit from a focused approach to improve ED flow.

Epidemiology of geriatric patients presenting to emergency departments in Europe: EGERS study

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE

Patients aged 65 and above constitute a large and growing part of emergency department (ED) visits in western countries.

OBJECTIVE

The primary aim of this European prospective study was to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of elderly patients presenting to EDs across Europe. Our secondary objective was to determine the hospitalization rate, characteristics, and in-hospital mortality rates of geriatric patients presenting to EDs.

DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

An observational prospective cohort study over seven consecutive days between 19 October and 30 November 2020, in 36 EDs from nine European countries. Patients aged 65 years and older presenting to EDs with any complaint during a period of seven consecutive days were included.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Data were collected on demographics, the major presenting complaint, the presenting vital signs, comorbidities, usual medication, and outcomes after the ED, including disposition, in-hospital outcome, and the final hospital diagnosis. The patients were stratified into three groups: old (65-74 years), older (75-84 years), and oldest age (>85 years).

MAIN RESULTS

A total of 5767 patients were included in the study. The median age of the patients was 77 (interquartile range: 71-84) years. The majority presented with a non-traumatic complaint (81%) and about 90% of the patients had at least one comorbid disease and were on chronic medication. An ED visit resulted in subsequent hospital admission in 51% of cases, with 9% of patients admitted to an intensive care unit. Overall in-hospital mortality was 8%, and ED mortality was 1%. Older age was associated with a higher female proportion, comorbidities, need for home care service, history of previous falls, admission rates, length of ED, and hospital stay.

CONCLUSION

The characteristics of ED elderly patients and their subsequent hospital stay are reported in this prospective study.

Operations Factors Associated with Emergency Department Length of Stay: Analysis of a National Operations Database

Introduction: Prolonged emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS) has been shown to adversely affect patient care. We sought to determine factors associated with ED LOS via analysis of a large, national, ED operations database. Methods: We performed retrospective, multivariable, linear regression modeling using the 2019 Emergency Department Benchmarking Alliance survey results to identify associated factors of ED LOS for admitted and discharged patients. Results: A total of 1,052 general and adult-only EDs responded to the survey. Median annual volume was 40,946. The median admit and discharge LOS were 289 minutes and 147 minutes, respectively. R-squared values for the admit and discharge models were 0.63 and 0.56 with out-of-sample R-squared values of 0.54 and 0.59, respectively. Both admit and discharge LOS were associated with academic designation, trauma level designation, annual volume, proportion of ED arrivals occurring via emergency medical services, median boarding, and use of a fast track. Additionally, admit LOS was associated with transfer-out percentage, and discharge LOS was associated with percentage of high Current Procedural Terminology, percentage of patients <18 years old, use of radiographs and computed tomography, and use of an intake physician. Conclusion: Models derived from a large, nationally representative cohort identified diverse associated factors of ED length of stay, several of which were not previously reported. Dominant within the LOS modeling were patient population characteristics and other factors extrinsic to ED operations, including boarding of admitted patients, which was associated with both admitted and discharged LOS. The results of the modeling have significant implications for ED process improvement and appropriate benchmarking.

Length of stay and its associated factors among adult patients who visit Emergency Department of University Hospital, Eastern Ethiopia

Objectives

This study was aimed to assess the length of stay and its associated factors among adult patients who visited Emergency Department of Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital, Eastern Ethiopia.

Method

A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 400 adult patients who visit the Emergency Department. Systematic random sampling technique and an interviewer-administered data collection method was used. Data analyses were done using STATA version 16. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to control the potential confounders. The analysis outputs were presented using an odds ratio with a corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Independent variables were defined as statistically significant at p-values <0.05 in the final model.

Result

A total of 169 [42.25% (95% CI: 37.5%-47.0%)] patients stayed longer than 24 h in the Emergency Department. We identified factors significantly associated with length of stay in ED include: patients treated at orange triage type (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.267; 95% CI: 0.13-0.53), laboratory request (AOR: 3.05; 95% CI: 1.49-6.23), radiological requests (AOR: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.05-3.07), and diagnosed with medical condition (AOR: 2.27; 95% CI: 1.21-4.26).

Conclusion

A significant number of patients stay longer in the Emergency Department. Evaluation of the clinical diagnosis, diagnostic investigations, and organizational factors is essential to reduce the length of stay in the Emergency Department.

Dutch emergency physicians insufficiently educated in geriatric emergency medicine: results of a nationwide survey

Background

Emergency physicians (EPs) provide care to older adults with complex health problems. Treating these patients is challenging for many EPs, which might originate from modest geriatric education.

Objective

Our aim was to assess EPs’ self-perceived needs regarding geriatric emergency medicine (GEM) education, factors determining these needs and the utilization of this education. Our secondary aim was to assess emergency department (ED) managers’ view and support for GEM education.

Methods

All EPs and ED managers in the Netherlands received a survey by e-mail. The questionnaires focused on EPs’ needs in GEM education, EPs’ utilization of GEM education and managerial support for GEM education. We used descriptive statistics to analyse needs, utilization of- and support for GEM education. Regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with EPs’ need for GEM education.

Results

EPs reported to need better training in diagnosing, treating and communicating with older adults. Seventy percent of EPs reported no GEM education program in their hospital, and 83% reported no utilization of GEM education outside their hospital. EPs working in EDs with a possibility for geriatric consultation, and EPs aware of actual GEM education programs, had lower educational needs. Of responding managers, 86.2% reported the care for older adults as an important topic; lack of finances and time were obstacles to provide GEM education for EPs.

Conclusion

EPs in the Netherlands feel insufficiently educated to treat older adults. ED managers largely recognize this educational challenge. This nationwide survey underlines the need to prioritize GEM education for EPs.

Variations in length of stay of inpatients with COVID-19: A nationwide test of the new model of care under vision 2030 in Saudi Arabia

Objective

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has impacted the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) as it has other nations. However, length of stay (LOS), as a healthcare quality indicator, has not been examined across the healthcare regions in the KSA. Therefore, this study aimed to examine factors associated with LOS to better understand the Saudi Health System's performance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the newly suggested five Saudi regional business units (BUs).

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted using Ministry of Health (MOH) data on hospital LOS during the period from March to mid-July 2020. Participants were adult inpatients (18 years or older) with confirmed COVID-19 (n = 1743 patients). The 13 regions of the KSA were united into the defined five regional BUs during the reorganization of the health system. Covariates included demographics such as age and sex, comorbidities, and complications of COVID-19. A multiple linear regression with stepwise forward selection was used to model LOS for other explanatory variables associated with LOS, including demographic, comorbidities, and complications.

Results

The mean LOS was 11.85 days which differed significantly across the BUs, ranging from 9.3 days to 13.3 days (p value < 0.001). BUs differed significantly in LOS for transferred patients but not for patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) or those who died in-hospital. The multiple regression analysis revealed that the LOS for inpatients admitted in the Eastern and Southern BUs was significantly shorter than for those in the Central BU. (p value < 0.001). Admission to the ICU was associated with lengthier stays (p value < 0.0001). Factors significantly associated with shorter stays (compared to the reference), were being Saudi, death during admission, and patients referred to another hospital (p value < 0.05).

Conclusion

The LOS for patients with COVID-19 differed across the proposed regional healthcare BUs, suggesting regional differences in quality of care under the reorganization of the national health system. Since patient and disease characteristics did not explain these findings, differences in staffing and other resources need to be examined to develop interventions.

NLR and CRP to albumin ratio as a predictor of in-hospital mortality in the geriatric ED patients

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to investigate the role of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the C-Reactive Protein/Albumin Ratio (CAR), which are obtained from the first laboratory values of the elderly patients at admission to the emergency department (ED), in predicting in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study includes the patients aged 65 and above who applied to the emergency department for two months. The patients' neutrophil, lymphocyte, C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, NLR and CAR values were recorded. Statistical analysis of NLR and CAR values was performed according to in-hospital mortality and ED outcome.

RESULTS

784 patients were included in the statistical analysis of the study. Increased NLR (8.82 (4.16-16.63), 4.76 (2.62-8.56), p˂0.001) and increased CAR (21.39 (6.02-55.07), 4.82 (1.17-17.03), p < 0.001) values were found to be statistically significant in the group with mortality compared to the group without mortality. Increased NLR (AUC: 0.642) and increased CAR (AUC: 0.723) were a predictor of in-hospital mortality. It was found that in-hospital mortality risk in patients with concurrent high NLR and CAR values (CAR˃12.3, NLR˃7.1) was 9.87 times more than the patients with concurrent low NLR and CAR values (CAR<12.3, NLR < 7.1). NLR and CAR values of the patients hospitalized in intensive care and service (NLR 7.21 (4.07-13.36), 5.77 (3.45-11.22); CAR 12.65 (2.79-36.8), 9.56 (1.74-33.97)) were found to be statistically significantly higher than those who were discharged (NLR 3.64 (2.26-7.02); CAR 2.88 (0.9-10.59)).

CONCLUSION

According to our results, the concurrent high levels of NLR and CAR values were found to be more effective in predicting in-hospital mortality compared to a separate evaluation.

Length of Stay in the Emergency Department and Its Associated Factors at Jimma Medical Center, Southwest Ethiopia

Background

Prolonged emergency department stays can adversely affect patient outcomes leading to an increased length of hospital admission and higher mortality. Despite this fact, there are few data describing emergency department length of stay and associated factors in Ethiopia.

Objective

To assess length of stay in the emergency department and its associated factors among patients visited adult emergency department of Jimma Medical Center, Jimma town, southwest of Ethiopia.

Methods

Institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from April 9, 2018 to May 11, 2018. Overall, 422 patients presented during study period were sequentially included in the study. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect data through interview, observation and medical record review. The collected data were cleaned, entered to Epi-data 3.1 and exported to SPSS version 21 for binary and multivariable logistic regression analysis. To identify factors associated with outcome variable, candidate variables were fitted to multivariable analysis, and those with P-values <0.05 were considered as significantly associated.

Results

More than one-third, 162 (38.4%), experienced prolonged length of stay in the emergency department. The odds of prolonged stay were higher among rural area residency (AOR, 3.0; CI, 1.279–7.042), evening presentation (AOR, 4.25; CI, 1.742–10.417), and night-time presentation (AOR, 14.93; CI, 4.22–52.63), and having at least one diagnostic investigation (AOR, 4.48; CI, 1.69–11.88). However, participants who did not experience shift changes of nurses during their stay (AOR, 0.003; CI, 0.001–0.010) had a less prolonged stay.

Conclusion

A significant proportion of patients experienced a prolonged stay at the emergency department. Age, rural residency, evening and night-time presentation, shift change and having a diagnostic investigation were predictors of prolonged stay. Thus, establishing time-targeted service for patients can reduce the length of stay.

Blood sampling during nurse triage reduces patient length of stay in the emergency department: A propensity score-weighted, population-based study

BACKGROUND

Increases in patients' length of stay (LOS) in the emergency department (ED) have led to overcrowding.

OBJECTIVES

In this study, the implementation of blood sampling during triage in lower priority level patients was assessed as a possible means to reduce LOS.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed from January 2018 to January 2019. Lower priority level patients who required blood sampling for further diagnosis were considered. Patients who underwent blood sampling during triage evaluation were compared with those who underwent blood sampling after a physician's initial evaluation.

RESULTS

During the study period, 15,596 patients were enrolled. LOS was shorter in patients who underwent triage blood sampling, presenting a median value of 154 min in comparison with the 172 min recorded in the control group (p < 0.001). Using a propensity score-matching to control the two groups' differences, LOS remained lower in the triage-sampling group (151 vs. 175 min; p < 0.001). In the adjusted multivariate model, triage blood sampling was found to be an independent factor for a decrease in the LOS, with standardized coefficient β = 0.857 (0.822-0.894; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Performing blood sampling during nurse triage can decrease LOS in ED and also reduce ED permanence after a physician's initial evaluation.