Evaluation of the COVID-19 Pandemic Intervention Strategies with Hesitant F-AHP

The Early Warning Mechanism of Public Health Emergencies Through Whistleblowing: A Perspective Based on Considering the Uncertainty of Risk Perception

Purpose

During the early warning period of public health emergencies, the information released by whistleblowers on the risk posed by the given event can reduce uncertainty in the public's risk perception and help governments take timely actions to contain the large-scale dissemination of risk. The purpose of this study is to give full play to whistleblowers and draw attention to the risk events, forming a pluralistic model of the risk governance during the early warning period of public health emergencies.

Methods

We construct an evolutionary game model of the early warning of public health emergencies through whistleblowing that involves the government, whistleblowers, and the public, discussing the mechanism of interaction between these subjects under the uncertainty of risk perception. Furthermore, we use numerical simulations to analyze the influence of changes in the relevant parameters on the evolutionary trajectory of the subjects' behaviors.

Results

The results of the research are obtained by numerical simulation of the evolutionary game model. The results show that the public's cooperation with the government encourages the latter to take a positive guidance strategy. Increasing the reward for whistleblowers within an acceptable cost, strengthening the propaganda of the mechanism and the higher level of risk perception of the government and whistleblowers will promote whistleblowers' vocalization actively. When the government's reward for whistleblowers is lower, the whistleblowers choose negative vocalization with the improvement of the public's risk perception. If there is no mandatory guidance from the government at this point, the public is prone to passively cooperating with the government owing to a lack of risk-related information.

Conclusion

Establishing an early warning mechanism through whistleblowing is important for containing risk in the early warning period of public health emergencies. Building the whistleblowing mechanism in daily work can improve the effectiveness of the mechanism and enhance the public's risk perception better when the public health emergencies arise.

Are psychological status and trust in information related to vaccine hesitancy during COVID-19 pandemic? A latent class and mediation analyses in Italy

Despite the recognized benefits of the COVID-19 vaccination, vaccine hesitancy (VH) remains one of the biggest challenges of the mass vaccination campaign. Most studies investigating VH determinants focused on socio-demographics and direct relationships. In this study, we aimed at: 1) identifying subgroups of people differently affected by the pandemic, in terms of psychological status; 2) investigating the role of psychological status and trust in information as possible mediators of the relationship between individual characteristics and VH. To this purpose, a latent class analysis (LCA) followed by a mediation analysis were carried out on data from a survey conducted in January 2021 on 1011 Italian citizens. LCA identified four different subgroups characterized by a differential psychological impact of the pandemic: the extremely affected (21.1%), the highly affected (49.1%), the moderately affected (21.8%) and the slightly affected (8%). We found that VH decreased with the increase of psychological impact (from 59.3% to 23.9%). In the mediation analysis, past vaccination refusal, age 45-54 years and lower-than-average income, were all indirectly related to higher VH through mistrust in COVID-19 information. Differently, the psychological impact counteracted the greater VH in females, the negative effect of social media among youngest (<35 years) and the negative effect of mistrust in the lower-than-average-income subgroup. Knowledge of psychological profile of hesitant individuals, their level of trust and the sources of information they access, together with their sociodemographic characteristics provides a more comprehensive picture of VH determinants that can be used by public health stakeholders to effectively design and adapt communication campaigns.

Evaluation of Gas-Fired Combi Boilers with HF-AHP-MULTIMOORA

There are many alternative gas-fired combi boilers that can be used to heat residential homes. Evaluation and selection of gas-fired combi boilers for buildings is an intricate multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem involving perhaps contradictory quantifiable and qualitative criteria. In this research, as the MCDM approach, hesitant fuzzy linguistic analytic hierarchy process (HF-AHP) and hesitant fuzzy linguistic “multiple objective optimization based on ratio analysis plus full multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA)” (HF-MULTIMOORA) are integrated to assess and rank combi boiler alternatives for buildings. First, with HF-AHP, fuzzy criteria weights are determined and then with HF-MULTIMOORA, boiler alternatives are ranked from best to worst. In this integrated HF-AHP-MULTIMOORA method, evaluations of decision-makers are combined with fuzzy envelope approach and then triangular fuzzy numbers are utilized. For comparison analysis, HF-AHP-TOPSIS method is also applied to the same problem. A case study in Turkey is presented where ten combi boiler alternatives are assessed based on fifteen criteria by five decision-makers. We have used various selection criteria for boilers ranging from maximum temperature, heating capacity up to environmental effects and decided on the best combi boiler for heating residential buildings in Turkey.

Modeling a decision support system for Covid-19 using systems dynamics and fuzzy inference

Covid-19 has impacted the lives of people across the world with deaths and unprecedented economic damage. Countries have employed various restrictions and lockdowns to slow down the rate of its spread with varying degrees of success. This research aims to propose an optimal strategy for dealing with a pandemic taking the deaths and economy into account. A complete lockdown until vaccination is not suitable as it can destroy the economy, whereas having no restrictions would result in more Covid-19 cases. Therefore, there is a need for a dynamic model which can propose a suitable strategy depending on the economic and health situation. This paper discusses an approach involving a systems dynamics model for evaluating deaths and hospitals and a fuzzy inference system for deciding the strategy for the next time period based on pre-defined rules. We estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a sum of government spending, investment, consumption, and spending. The resulting hybrid framework aims to attain a balance between health and economy during a pandemic. The results from a 30-week simulation indicate that the model has 2.9 million $ in GDP higher than complete lockdown and 21 fewer deaths compared to a scenario with no restrictions. The model can be used for the decision-making of restriction policies by configuring the fuzzy rules and membership functions. The paper also discusses the possibility of introducing virus variants in the model.

Rise of multiattribute decision-making in combating COVID-19: A systematic review of the state-of-the-art literature

Considering the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the government and health sectors are incapable of making fast and reliable decisions, particularly given the various effects of decisions on different contexts or countries across multiple sectors. Therefore, leaders often seek decision support approaches to assist them in such scenarios. The most common decision support approach used in this regard is multiattribute decision-making (MADM). MADM can assist in enforcing the most ideal decision in the best way possible when fed with the appropriate evaluation criteria and aspects. MADM also has been of great aid to practitioners during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, MADM shows resilience in mitigating consequences in health sectors and other fields. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the rise of MADM techniques in combating COVID-19 by presenting a systematic literature review of the state-of-the-art COVID-19 applications. Articles on related topics were searched in four major databases, namely, Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, ScienceDirect, and Scopus, from the beginning of the pandemic in 2019 to April 2021. Articles were selected on the basis of the inclusion and exclusion criteria for the identified systematic review protocol, and a total of 51 articles were obtained after screening and filtering. All these articles were formed into a coherent taxonomy to describe the corresponding current standpoints in the literature. This taxonomy was drawn on the basis of four major categories, namely, medical (n = 30), social (n = 4), economic (n = 13) and technological (n = 4). Deep analysis for each category was performed in terms of several aspects, including issues and challenges encountered, contributions, data set, evaluation criteria, MADM techniques, evaluation and validation and bibliography analysis. This study emphasised the current standpoint and opportunities for MADM in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and promoted additional efforts towards understanding and providing new potential future directions to fulfil the needs of this study field.

Ten GIS-Based Solutions for Managing and Controlling COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused disastrous results in most countries of the world. It has rapidly spread across the globe with over 156 million cumulative confirmed cases and 3.264 million deaths to date, according to World Health Organization (WHO) Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. With these huge amounts of causalities in the world, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as a computer-based analyzer could help governments, experts, medical staff, and citizens to prevent and respond to the incidence. On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic involves many unknown parameters where most of them have a spatial dimension. Thus, spatial analysis and GIS could provide appropriate decision-making tools, predictive models, statistical methods, and new technologies for COVID-19 outbreak control, also help the people for avoiding direct contact and preserving social distance. This article aims to review the most promising categories of GIS-based solutions in this domain. We divided the solutions into ten classes including spatio-temporal analysis, SDSS approaches, geo-business, context-aware recommendation systems, participatory GIS and volunteered geographic information (VGI), internet of things (IoT), location-based service (LBS), web mapping, satellite imagery-based analysis, and waste management. The main contribution of this paper is proposing different geospatial guidelines that could provide reliable and useful protocols for COVID-19 outbreak control to minimize causalities, restrict incidence, establish effective urban communication, provide new approaches for business in lockdown situations, telehealth treatment, patient monitoring, adaptive decision making, and visualize trend analysis.

A Novel Multi-Criteria Assessment Approach for Post-COVID-19 Production Strategies in Vietnam Manufacturing Industry: OPA–Fuzzy EDAS Model

The global manufacturing supply chain has been disrupted by the negative impacts of the pandemic. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s manufacturing industry is one of the most strongly integrated with global and regional supply chains. The production strategies in the “new normal” are the key solution to the survival and sustainable development of manufacturers. This study aims to develop a two-stage framework to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 and the post-COVID-19 production strategies for Vietnam’s manufacturing industry. As a theoretical contribution, this study proposes a novel and robust integration approach, which combines the Ordinal Priority Approach (OPA) and Fuzzy Evaluation Based on Distance from Average Solution (Fuzzy EDAS), for the first time. The negative impacts of the pandemic were identified and weighted by the OPA method. Then, production strategies were comprehensively evaluated using the Fuzzy EDAS method. Findings indicate that digitization and on-site renewable energy are the most essential recovery strategies for manufacturing in Vietnam. These findings are validated by comparisons with the results of recent multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Furthermore, weight sensitivity analysis reveals different suitability of strategies for short-term and long-term negative impacts. As a managerial implication, the multi-scenario ranking results help managers to make resource-allocation decisions for the implementation of post-COVID-19 production strategies.

Multi-criteria decision-making for coronavirus disease 2019 applications: a theoretical analysis review

The influence of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that is being felt in all spheres of our lives and has a remarkable effect on global health care delivery occurs amongst the ongoing global health crisis of patients and the required services. From the time of the first detection of infection amongst the public, researchers investigated various applications in the fight against the COVID-19 outbreak and outlined the crucial roles of different research areas in this unprecedented battle. In the context of existing studies in the literature surrounding COVID-19, related to medical treatment decisions, the dimensions of context addressed in previous multidisciplinary studies reveal the lack of appropriate decision mechanisms during the COVID-19 outbreak. Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) has been applied widely in our daily lives in various ways with numerous successful stories to help analyse complex decisions and provide an accurate decision process. The rise of MCDM in combating COVID-19 from a theoretical perspective view needs further investigation to meet the important characteristic points that match integrating MCDM and COVID-19. To this end, a comprehensive review and an analysis of these multidisciplinary fields, carried out by different MCDM theories concerning COVID19 in complex case studies, are provided. Research directions on exploring the potentials of MCDM and enhancing its capabilities and power through two directions (i.e. development and evaluation) in COVID-19 are thoroughly discussed. In addition, Bibliometrics has been analysed, visualization and interpretation based on the evaluation and development category using R-tool involves; annual scientific production, country scientific production, Wordcloud, factor analysis in bibliographic, and country collaboration map. Furthermore, 8 characteristic points that go through the analysis based on new tables of information are highlighted and discussed to cover several important facts and percentages associated with standardising the evaluation criteria, MCDM theory in ranking alternatives and weighting criteria, operators used with the MCDM methods, normalisation types for the data used, MCDM theory contexts, selected experts ways, validation scheme for effective MCDM theory and the challenges of MCDM theory used in COVID-19 studies. Accordingly, a recommended MCDM theory solution is presented through three distinct phases as a future direction in COVID19 studies. Key phases of this methodology include the Fuzzy Delphi method for unifying criteria and establishing importance level, Fuzzy weighted Zero Inconsistency for weighting to mitigate the shortcomings of the previous weighting techniques and the MCDM approach by the name Fuzzy Decision by Opinion Score method for prioritising alternatives and providing a unique ranking solution. This study will provide MCDM researchers and the wider community an overview of the current status of MCDM evaluation and development methods and motivate researchers in harnessing MCDM potentials in tackling an accurate decision for different fields against COVID-19.

Ranking the health precautions for the 'new normal' after the COVID-19 outbreak in production environments

Objectives. With the outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) about a year ago and its quick spread all around the world, some serious decisions had to be made like halting production temporarily. The world now tries to take back its normal pace thanks to some medical improvements. However, the 'new normal' is unlikely to follow the old habits in which COVID-19 never appeared. In production environments, a number of new precautions should be defined to prevent a spread of COVID-19 disease among employees in the new normal period. The aim of this study is to propose an analytical approach to define these new precautions and prioritize them. Methods. To determine the precautions, open archive publications of the Turkish Health Ministry and the World Health Organization, and the opinions of occupational physicians and academicians were considered. Twenty-five precautions were specified under three main headings. The Pythagorean fuzzy analytical hierarchy process was employed to gain the rank of precautions. Results. The most critical precautions and sub-precautions were determined as organizational precautions and developing an appropriate working model to ensure social distance. Conclusion. Using the determined order of measures, the managers are able to apply them, starting from the most effective ones.

Fermatean fuzzy set extensions of SAW, ARAS, and VIKOR with applications in COVID-19 testing laboratory selection problem

The multiple attribute decision-making models are empowered with the support of fuzzy sets such as intuitionistic, q-rung orthopair, Pythagorean, and picture fuzzy sets, and also neutrosophic sets, etc. These concepts generate varying representation opportunities for the decision-maker's preferences and expertise. Pythagorean and Fermatean fuzzy sets are special cases of q-rung orthopair fuzzy set when q = 2 and q = 3, respectively. From a geometric perspective, the latter provides a broader representation domain than the former does. In this study, the emerging concept of Fermatean fuzzy set is studied in detail and three well-known multi-attribute evaluation methods, namely SAW, ARAS, and VIKOR are extended under Fermatean fuzzy environment. In this manner, the decision-makers will have more freedom in specifying their preferences, thoughts, and expertise, and the abovementioned decision approaches will be able to handle this new type of data. The applicability of the propositions is shown in determining the best Covid-19 testing laboratory which is an important topic of the ongoing global health crisis. To validate the proposed methods, a benchmark analysis covering the results of the existing Fermatean fuzzy set-based decision methods, namely TOPSIS, WPM, and Yager aggregation operators is presented.

Long-Time Analysis of a Time-Dependent SUC Epidemic Model for the COVID-19 Pandemic

In this study, we propose a time-dependent susceptible-unidentified infected-confirmed (tSUC) epidemic mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic, which has a time-dependent transmission parameter. Using the tSUC model with real confirmed data, we can estimate the number of unidentified infected cases. We can perform a long-time epidemic analysis from the beginning to the current pandemic of COVID-19 using the time-dependent parameter. To verify the performance of the proposed model, we present several numerical experiments. The computational test results confirm the usefulness of the proposed model in the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Hybrid Spherical Fuzzy MCDM Approach to Prioritize Governmental Intervention Strategies against the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study from Vietnam

The unprecedented coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is fluctuating worldwide. Since the COVID-19 epidemic has a negative impact on all countries and has become a significant threat, it is necessary to determine the most effective strategy for governments by considering a variety of criteria; however, few studies in the literature can assist governments in this topic. Selective governmental intervention during the COVID-19 outbreak is considered a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem under a vague and uncertain environment when governments and medical communities adjust their priorities in response to rising issues and the efficacy of interventions applied in various nations. In this study, a novel hybrid Spherical Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (SF-AHP) and Fuzzy Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS-F) model is proposed to help stakeholders such as governors and policymakers to prioritize governmental interventions for dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak. The SF-AHP is implemented to measure the significance of the criteria, while the WASPAS-F approach is deployed to rank intervention alternatives. An empirical case study is conducted in Vietnam. From the SF-AHP findings, the criteria of “effectiveness in preventing the spread of COVID-19”, “ease of implementation”, and “high acceptability to citizens” were recognized as the most important criteria. As for the ranking of strategies, “vaccinations”, “enhanced control of the country’s health resources”, “common health testing”, “formation of an emergency response team”, and “quarantining patients and those suspected of infection” are the top five strategies. Aside from that, the robustness of the approach was tested by performing a comparative analysis. The results illustrate that the applied methods reach the general best strategy rankings. The applied methodology and its analysis will provide insight to authorities for fighting against the severe pandemic in the long run. It may aid in solving many complicated challenges in government strategy selection and assessment. It is also a flexible design model for considering the evaluation criteria. Finally, this research provides valuable guidance for policymakers in other nations.

A Novel Vaccine Selection Decision-Making Model (VSDMM) for COVID-19

Selecting a vaccine for fighting a pandemic is one of the serious issues in healthcare. Novel decision models for vaccine selection need to be developed. In this study, a novel vaccine selection decision-making model (VSDMM) was proposed and developed, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, which assesses many alternatives (vaccines) using multi-criteria to support decision making. To feed data to the VSDMM, six coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) vaccines were selected in a case study to highlight the applicability of the proposed model. Each vaccine was compared to the others with respect to six criteria and all criteria were compared to calculate the relative weights. The proposed criteria include (1) vaccine availability; (2) vaccine formula; (3) vaccine efficacy; (4) vaccine-related side effects; (5) cost savings, and (6) host-related factors. Using the selected criteria, experts responded to questions and currently available COVID-19 vaccines were ranked according to their weight in the model. A sensitivity analysis was introduced to assess the model robustness and the impacts of changing criteria weights on the results. The VSDMM is flexible in terms of its ability to accept more vaccine alternatives and/or more criteria. It could also be applied to other current or future pandemics/epidemics in the world. In conclusion, this is the first report to propose a VSDMM for selecting the most suitable vaccines in pandemic/epidemic situations or any other situations in which vaccine selection and usage may be deemed necessary.

Assessing the Robustness of a Factory Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Fuzzy Collaborative Intelligence Approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the operations of factories worldwide. However, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different factories is not the same. In other words, the robustness of factories to the COVID-19 pandemic varies. To explore this topic, this study proposes a fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach to assess the robustness of a factory to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the proposed methodology, first, a number of experts apply a fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach to jointly evaluate the relative priorities of factors that affect the robustness of a factory to the COVID-19 pandemic. Subsequently, based on the evaluated relative priorities, a fuzzy weighted average method is applied to assess the robustness of a factory to the COVID-19 pandemic. The assessment result can be compared with that of another factory using a fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution. The proposed methodology has been applied to assess the robustness of a wafer fabrication factory in Taiwan to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Comparing Built-in Power Banks for a Smart Backpack Design Using an Auto-Weighting Fuzzy-Weighted-Intersection FAHP Approach

Smart backpacks are a prevalent application of smart technologies, with functions such as motion recording, navigation, and energy harvesting and provision. Selecting a suitable built-in power bank is a critical task for a smart backpack design, which has rarely been investigated in the past. To fulfill this task, an auto-weighting fuzzy-weighted-intersection fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) approach is proposed in this study. When decision makers lack an overall consensus, the auto-weighting fuzzy-weighted-intersection FAHP approach specifies decision makers’ authority levels according to the consistency ratios of their judgments. In this way, the consensus among all decision makers can be sought. The auto-weighting fuzzy-weighted-intersection FAHP approach has been applied to compare six mobile power banks for a smart backpack design.

Assessing and Comparing COVID-19 Intervention Strategies Using a Varying Partial Consensus Fuzzy Collaborative Intelligence Approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted our daily lives. For tackling the COVID-19 pandemic, various intervention strategies have been adopted by country (or city) governments around the world. However, whether an intervention strategy will be successful, acceptable, and cost-effective or not is still questionable. To address this issue, a varying partial consensus fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach is proposed in this study to assess an intervention strategy. In the varying partial consensus fuzzy collaborative intelligence approach, multiple decision makers express their judgments on the relative priorities of factors critical to an intervention strategy. If decision makers lack an overall consensus, the layered partial consensus approach is applied to aggregate their judgments for each critical factor. The number of decision makers that reach a partial consensus varies from a critical factor to another. Subsequently, the generalized fuzzy weighted assessment approach is proposed to evaluate the overall performance of an intervention strategy for tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed methodology has been applied to compare 15 existing intervention strategies for tackling the COVID-19 pandemic.