Quantifying the Dynamics of Field Cancerization in Tobacco-Related Head and Neck Cancer: A Multiscale Modeling Approach

Molecular characterization of the evolution of premalignant lesions in the upper aerodigestive tract

Introduction

Early relapse and development of metastatic disease are some of the primary reasons for the poor prognosis of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). HNSCC is a heterogeneous disease which may develop in large premalignant fields of genetically altered cells. Yet knowing which individuals will progress and develop clinically significant cancers during their lifetimes remains one of the most important challenges of reducing HNSCC morbidity and mortality. To further elucidate the molecular mechanisms, we performed a focused analysis of the genome and immune microenvironment from multiple, matched normal squamous tissue, premalignant lesions, as well as primary and recurrent tumors from seven patients with p16-negative HNSCC.

Methods

We performed targeted panel Next Generation Sequencing (161 genes) to analyze somatic variants from sequentially collected, matched formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue (normal, premalignant, HNSCC) from two patients. These samples plus samples from five additional patients were analyzed with the Nanostring PanCancer Immune Panel. In addition, we performed shallow whole genome sequencing (0.5x coverage on average) on samples from three of these patients. Patients were, apart from one case, primarily treated with curative-intent surgery, and received subsequent adjuvant treatment, if indicated.

Results

The most frequently mutated genes were TP53 and NOTCH1. Other mutated genes included NOTCH3 and CDKN2A, among others. A significant number of mutations were private to dysplasia and invasive carcinoma, respectively, however, almost 20% were shared between them. Increasing genomic instability was observed when comparing histologically normal squamous mucosa with higher levels of dysplasia. High-grade dysplasia showed similarly rearranged genomes as invasive carcinoma. Pathways related to interferon alpha and gamma response were upregulated even in moderate dysplastic lesions with increasing expression in higher grades of dysplasia and carcinoma. SPINK5, a known tumor suppressor gene in HNSCC, was already downregulated in low-grade dysplastic lesions, indicating an early deactivation in the evolution of the disease.

Conclusion

Genomic alterations as well as aberrant immune gene expression can be observed early in the evolution of tumors of the upper aerodigestive tract, highlighting the potential for targeting early mechanisms of disease progression.

Oncological outcomes and failure patterns of laser cordectomy in recurrent glottic cancer

PURPOSE

Laser cordectomy is a widely accepted treatment modality for selected cases of early glottic cancers, but its role as a salvage treatment remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the oncological outcomes and failure patterns of salvage cordectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent cordectomy for early glottic cancer between 2013 and 2022 at a tertiary referral center. The main outcome measures were overall survival, larynx-preservation rate, tracheostomy dependency rate, and disease-free survival.

RESULTS

A total of 142 patients (mean age: 63 years, interquartile range [IQR]: 45-72, 123[86.9 %] males) were analyzed. There were 38 (26.8 %) recurrences after a mean of 22 months (IQR: 17-26). Among them, 25 (17.6 %) underwent salvage cordectomy, while 13 (9.1 %) received other salvage treatments (11[7.7 %] (chemo)radiotherapy and 2[1.4 %] total laryngectomy). In comparison to the other salvage treatments, salvage cordectomy demonstrated lower tracheostomy rates (0 vs. 31 %, p = 0.05), comparable 5-year disease-free survival (62 % vs. 54 %, p = 0.4), higher 5-year larynx preservation rate (92 % vs. 54 %, p = 0.02), and improved 5-year overall survival rate (84 % vs. 62 %, p = 0.01). Factors associated with salvage cordectomy failure were age >60 years (odds ratio [OR]: 1.3, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-1.53), smoking continuation (OR: 3.73, 95 % CI: 3.5-4.4), heavy smoking (OR: 1.24, 95 % CI:1.07-2.15), and pT1b + (OR: 2.26, 95 % CI: 2.1-2.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Salvage cordectomy offers favorable larynx preservation rates and oncological outcomes for recurrent disease amenable to conservative surgery. Smoking, advanced age, and advanced tumor stages are associated with salvage cordectomy failure.

A computational model for the cancer field effect

Introduction

The Cancer Field Effect describes an area of pre-cancerous cells that results from continued exposure to carcinogens. Cells in the cancer field can easily develop into cancer. Removal of the main tumor mass might leave the cancer field behind, increasing risk of recurrence.

Methods

The model we propose for the cancer field effect is a hybrid cellular automaton (CA), which includes a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) to compute the effects of the carcinogens on the gene expression of the genes related to cancer development. We use carcinogen interactions that are typically associated with smoking and alcohol consumption and their effect on cancer fields of the tongue.

Results

Using simulations we support the understanding that tobacco smoking is a potent carcinogen, which can be reinforced by alcohol consumption. The effect of alcohol alone is significantly less than the effect of tobacco. We further observe that pairing tumor excision with field removal delays recurrence compared to tumor excision alone. We track cell lineages and find that, in most cases, a polyclonal field develops, where the number of distinct cell lineages decreases over time as some lineages become dominant over others. Finally, we find tumor masses rarely form via monoclonal origin.

Spindle cell carcinoma in the trail of radiotherapy for oral squamous cell carcinoma: A quest for rationale

Spindle cell carcinoma (SpCC) is a rare variant of oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) with unique clinicopathological characteristics, a high recurrence rate, and metastatic potential. It will be truly devastating when it occurs as a second wave in a cancer survivor. Despite the multidisciplinary approach in the management of oral SCC, the incidence of second malignancies or multiple carcinomas has been constantly reporting in the literature. Although radiotherapy has saved the lives of countless cancer patients, its several serious late effects are well-documented in the literature, making it a double-edged sword. Radiation epidemiology studies revealed an increased risk of developing radiogenic second cancers after 5 or more years. The purpose of this article is to document a case of SpCC arising in a patient after a span of 5 years who was previously diagnosed and treated with radiotherapy for well-differentiated SCC.

Computational modeling of locoregional recurrence with spatial structure identifies tissue-specific carcinogenic profiles

Introduction

Local and regional recurrence after surgical intervention is a significant problem in cancer management. The multistage theory of carcinogenesis precisely places the presence of histologically normal but mutated premalignant lesions surrounding the tumor - field cancerization, as a significant cause of cancer recurrence. The relationship between tissue dynamics, cancer initiation and cancer recurrence in multistage carcinogenesis is not well known.

Methods

This study constructs a computational model for cancer initiation and recurrence by combining the Moran and branching processes in which cells requires 3 or more mutations to become malignant. In addition, a spatial structure-setting is included in the model to account for positional relativity in cell turnover towards malignant transformation. The model consists of a population of normal cells with no mutation; several populations of premalignant cells with varying number of mutations and a population of malignant cells. The model computes a stage of cancer detection and surgery to eliminate malignant cells but spares premalignant cells and then estimates the time for malignant cells to re-emerge.

Results

We report the cellular conditions that give rise to different patterns of cancer initiation and the conditions favoring a shorter cancer recurrence by analyzing premalignant cell types at the time of surgery. In addition, the model is fitted to disease-free clinical data of 8,957 patients in 27 different cancer types; From this fitting, we estimate the turnover rate per month, relative fitness of premalignant cells, growth rate and death rate of cancer cells in each cancer type.

Discussion

Our study provides insights into how to identify patients who are likely to have a shorter recurrence and where to target the therapeutic intervention.

A spatial mutation model with increasing mutation rates

We consider a spatial model of cancer in which cells are points on the d-dimensional torus $\mathcal{T}=[0,L]^d$ , and each cell with $k-1$ mutations acquires a kth mutation at rate $\mu_k$ . We assume that the mutation rates $\mu_k$ are increasing, and we find the asymptotic waiting time for the first cell to acquire k mutations as the torus volume tends to infinity. This paper generalizes results on waiting for $k\geq 3$ mutations in Foo et al. (2020), which considered the case in which all of the mutation rates $\mu_k$ are the same. In addition, we find the limiting distribution of the spatial distances between mutations for certain values of the mutation rates.

Equivalence framework for an age-structured multistage representation of the cell cycle

We develop theoretical equivalences between stochastic and deterministic models for populations of individual cells stratified by age. Specifically, we develop a hierarchical system of equations describing the full dynamics of an age-structured multistage Markov process for approximating cell cycle time distributions. We further demonstrate that the resulting mean behavior is equivalent, over large timescales, to the classical McKendrick-von Foerster integropartial differential equation. We conclude by extending this framework to a spatial context, facilitating the modeling of traveling wave phenomena and cell-mediated pattern formation. More generally, this methodology may be extended to myriad reaction-diffusion processes for which the age of individuals is relevant to the dynamics.

Age-specific oncogenic pathways in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma - are elderly a different subcategory?

BACKGROUND

In recent clinical practice, an increasing number of elderly patients suffering from head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) of unknown pathophysiology is observed. The majority of HNSCC patients can roughly be divided into three subcategories. First, a small group of young patients who present with variants of genomic aberrations and inheritable diseases like Fanconi anaemia. Second, an increasing population of HPV-related HNSCCs that are regarded as genomic stable tumours with a more favourable prognosis. Though HPV-related tumours used to be more common among younger males, a notable rise in the elderly population is observed. The third subcategory, that of HPV-negative tumours, has been shown to be more heterogeneous with involvement of a variety of oncogenic pathways related to lifestyle factors like smoking and alcohol consumption, often seen in middle-aged males. Some of these pathways could be related to age, such as TP53 alterations, EGFR activation, apoptotic pathway alterations and field cancerization.

CONCLUSIONS

In this narrative review, we provide an overview of established and newly discovered age-specific pathophysiological mechanisms underlying HNSCC. We propose a fourth subcategory of patients with a suspected different pathophysiology: elderly (HPV-negative) HNSCC patients without a history of tobacco and alcohol consumption. In this subcategory, carcinogenesis seems to be a multi-step process based on genomic instability, immunosenescence, cell cycle disruption and telomere shortening. To conclude, we discuss suggestions for future research to fill the knowledge gap about age-dependent HNSCC carcinogenesis.

Mathematical Modeling of Locoregional Recurrence Caused by Premalignant Lesions Formed Before Initial Treatment

Locoregional recurrence after surgery is a major unresolved issue in cancer treatment. Premalignant lesions are considered a cause of cancer recurrence. A study showed that premalignant lesions surrounding the primary tumor drove a high local cancer recurrence rate after surgery in head and neck cancer. Based on the multistage theory of carcinogenesis, cells harboring an intermediate number of mutations are not cancer cells yet but have a higher risk of becoming cancer than normal cells. This study constructed a mathematical model for cancer initiation and recurrence by combining the Moran and branching processes in which cells require two specific mutations to become malignant. There are three populations in this model: (i) normal cells with no mutation, (ii) premalignant cells with one mutation, and (iii) cancer cells with two mutations. The total number of healthy tissue is kept constant to represent homeostasis, and there is a rare chance of mutation every time a cell divides. If a cancer cell with two mutations arises, the cancer population proliferates, violating the homeostatic balance of the tissue. Once the number of cancer cells reaches a certain size, we conduct computational resection and remove the cancer cell population, keeping the ratio of normal and premalignant cells in the tissue unchanged. After surgery, we considered tissue dynamics and eventually observed the second appearance of cancer cells as recurrence. Consequently, we computationally revealed the conditions where the time to recurrence became short by parameter sensitivity analysis. Particularly, when the premalignant cells’ fitness is higher than normal cells, the proportion of premalignant cells becomes large after the surgical resection. Moreover, the mathematical model was fitted to clinical data on disease-free survival of 1,087 patients in 23 cancer types from the TCGA database. Finally, parameter values of tissue dynamics are estimated for each cancer type, where the likelihood of recurrence can be elucidated. Thus, our approach provides insights into the concept to identify the patients likely to experience recurrence as early as possible.

The genomic architectures of tumour-adjacent tissues, plasma and saliva reveal evolutionary underpinnings of relapse in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is characterised by a dismal prognosis; nonetheless, limited studies have unveiled the mechanisms underlying HNSCC relapse.

METHODS

Next-generation sequencing was performed to identify the somatic mutations in 188 matched samples, including primary tumours, tumour-adjacent tissues (TATs), pre- and post-operative plasma, saliva and peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs) from 27 patients. The evolutionary relationship between TATs and tumours were analysed. The dynamic changes of tumour- and TAT-specific mutations in liquid biopsies were monitored together with survival analysis.

RESULTS

Alterations were detected in 27 out of 27 and 19 out of 26 tumours and TATs, respectively. TP53 was the most prevalently mutated gene in TATs. Some TATs shared mutations with primary tumours, while some other TATs were evolutionarily unrelated to tumours. Notably, TP53 mutations in TATs are stringently associated with premalignant transformation and are indicative of worse survival (hazard ratio = 14.01). TAT-specific mutations were also detected in pre- and/or post-operative liquid biopsies and were indicative of disease relapse.

CONCLUSIONS

TATs might undergo the processes of premalignant transformation, tumorigenesis and eventually relapse by either inheriting tumorigenic mutations from ancestral clones where the tumour originated or gaining private mutations independent of primary tumours. Detection of tumour- and/or TAT-specific genetic alterations in post-operative biopsies shows profound potential in prognostic use.

Tumor-Naïve Multimodal Profiling of Circulating Tumor DNA in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) enables personalized treatment strategies in oncology by providing a noninvasive source of clinical biomarkers. In patients with low ctDNA abundance, tumor-naïve methods are needed to facilitate clinical implementation. Here, using locoregionally confined head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) as an example, we demonstrate tumor-naïve detection of ctDNA by simultaneous profiling of mutations and methylation.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

We conducted CAncer Personalized Profiling by deep Sequencing (CAPP-seq) and cell-free Methylated DNA ImmunoPrecipitation and high-throughput sequencing (cfMeDIP-seq) for detection of ctDNA-derived somatic mutations and aberrant methylation, respectively. We analyzed 77 plasma samples from 30 patients with stage I-IVA human papillomavirus-negative HNSCC as well as plasma samples from 20 risk-matched healthy controls. In addition, we analyzed leukocytes from patients and controls.

RESULTS

CAPP-seq identified mutations in 20 of 30 patients at frequencies similar to that of The Tumor Genome Atlas (TCGA). Differential methylation analysis of cfMeDIP-seq profiles identified 941 ctDNA-derived hypermethylated regions enriched for CpG islands and HNSCC-specific methylation patterns. Both methods demonstrated an association between ctDNA abundance and shorter fragment lengths. In addition, mutation- and methylation-based ctDNA abundance was highly correlated (r > 0.85). Patients with detectable pretreatment ctDNA by both methods demonstrated significantly worse overall survival (HR = 7.5; P = 0.025) independent of clinical stage, with lack of ctDNA clearance post-treatment strongly correlating with recurrence. We further leveraged cfMeDIP-seq profiles to validate a prognostic signature identified from TCGA samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor-naïve detection of ctDNA by multimodal profiling may facilitate biomarker discovery and clinical use in low ctDNA abundance applications.

Oral Potentially Malignant Disorders (OPMD): What is the clinical utility of dysplasia grade?

INTRODUCTION

Oral epithelial dysplasia is considered a potential histologic precursor of subsequent squamous cell cancer. As standard clinical practice, pathologists grade dysplasia to assess risk for progression to malignancy. Except for the most advanced grade, severe dysplasia, dysplasia grading has failed to correlate well with the risk to develop invasive cancer. The questions of what process dysplasia grading best represents and what clinical utility dysplasia grading may have are explored.

AREAS COVERED

This narrative review is based on PubMed search with emphasis on papers since 2010. Epithelial dysplasia as a precursor lesion of cancer and dysplasia grading as a risk assessment tool for progression to cancer are discussed. The close clinical association of dysplasia with known carcinogens, alcohol, and tobacco products is presented.

EXPERT OPINION

Oral epithelial dysplasia is often, associated with prolonged exposure to tobacco and alcohol products. With reduction of carcinogen exposure, dysplasia is known to regress in some cases. It is proposed that histologic dysplasia grade together with macroscopic images of dysplastic clinical lesions be used as an educational tool to incentivize patients to reduce their known carcinogen exposure. This strategy has the potential to reduce lesion progression thereby reducing the disease burden of oral cancer.

Immune-Related Mutational Landscape and Gene Signatures: Prognostic Value and Therapeutic Impact for Head and Neck Cancer

Simple Summary

Immunotherapy has emerged as a standard-of-care for most human malignancies, including head and neck cancer, but only a limited number of patients exhibit a durable clinical benefit. An urgent medical need is the establishment of accurate response predictors, which is handicapped by the growing body of molecular, cellular and clinical variables that modify the complex nature of an effective anti-tumor immune response. This review summarizes more recent efforts to elucidate immune-related mutational landscapes and gene expression signatures by integrative analysis of multi-omics data, and highlights their potential therapeutic impact for head and neck cancer. A better knowledge of the underlying principles and relevant interactions could pave the way for rational therapeutic combinations to improve the efficacy of immunotherapy, in particular for those cancer patients at a higher risk for treatment failure.

Abstract

Immunotherapy by immune checkpoint inhibition has become a main pillar in the armamentarium to treat head and neck cancer and is based on the premise that the host immune system can be reactivated to successfully eliminate cancer cells. However, the response rate remains low and only a small subset of head and neck cancer patients achieves a durable clinical benefit. The availability of multi-omics data and emerging computational technologies facilitate not only a deeper understanding of the cellular composition in the tumor immune microenvironment but also enables the study of molecular principles in the complex regulation of immune surveillance versus tolerance. These knowledges will pave the way to apply immunotherapy more precisely and effectively. This review aims to provide a holistic view on how the immune landscape dictates the tumor fate and vice versa, and how integrative analysis of multi-omics data contribute to our current knowledge on the accuracy of predictive biomarkers and on a broad range of factors influencing the response to immunotherapy in head and neck cancer.

Optimal Timing for Cancer Screening and Adaptive Surveillance Using Mathematical Modeling

Cancer screening and early detection efforts have been partially successful in reducing incidence and mortality, but many improvements are needed. Although current medical practice is informed by epidemiologic studies and experts, the decisions for guidelines are ultimately ad hoc. We propose here that quantitative optimization of protocols can potentially increase screening success and reduce overdiagnosis. Mathematical modeling of the stochastic process of cancer evolution can be used to derive and optimize the timing of clinical screens so that the probability is maximal that a patient is screened within a certain "window of opportunity" for intervention when early cancer development may be observable. Alternative to a strictly empirical approach or microsimulations of a multitude of possible scenarios, biologically based mechanistic modeling can be used for predicting when best to screen and begin adaptive surveillance. We introduce a methodology for optimizing screening, assessing potential risks, and quantifying associated costs to healthcare using multiscale models. As a case study in Barrett's esophagus, these methods were applied for a model of esophageal adenocarcinoma that was previously calibrated to U.S. cancer registry data. Optimal screening ages for patients with symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux disease were older (58 for men and 64 for women) than what is currently recommended (age > 50 years). These ages are in a cost-effective range to start screening and were independently validated by data used in current guidelines. Collectively, our framework captures critical aspects of cancer evolution within patients with Barrett's esophagus for a more personalized screening design. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates how mathematical modeling of cancer evolution can be used to optimize screening regimes, with the added potential to improve surveillance regimes. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/81/4/1123/F1.large.jpg.

Targeting of CD40 and PD-L1 Pathways Inhibits Progression of Oral Premalignant Lesions in a Carcinogen-induced Model of Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

We have previously demonstrated that PD-1 blockade decreased the incidence of high-grade dysplasia in a carcinogen-induced murine model of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). It remains unknown, however, whether there are additional factors involved in escape from immune surveillance that could serve as additional targets for immunoprevention. We performed this study to further characterize the immune landscape of oral premalignant lesions (OPL) and determine the impact of targeting of the PD-1, CTLA-4, CD40, or OX40 pathways on the development of OPLs and oral carcinomas in the 4-nitroquinoline 1-oxide model. The immune pathways were targeted using mAbs or, in the case of the PD-1/PD-L1 pathway, using PD-L1-knockout (PD-L1^ko) mice. After intervention, tongues and cervical lymph nodes were harvested and analyzed for malignant progression and modulation of the immune milieu, respectively. Targeting of CD40 with an agonist mAb was the most effective treatment to reduce transition of OPLs to OSCC; PD-1 alone or in combination with CTLA-4 inhibition, or PD-L1^ko, also reduced progression of OPLs to OSCC, albeit to a lesser extent. Distinct patterns of immune system modulation were observed for the CD40 agonists compared with blockade of the PD-1/PD-L1 axis with or without CTLA-4 blockade; CD40 agonist generated a lasting expansion of experienced/memory cytotoxic T lymphocytes and M1 macrophages, whereas PD-1/CTLA-4 blockade resulted in a pronounced depletion of regulatory T cells among other changes. These data suggest that distinct approaches may be used for targeting different steps in the development of OSCC, and that CD40 agonists merit investigation as potential immunoprevention agents in this setting. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: PD-1/PD-L1 pathway blockade, as well as activation of the CD40 pathway, were able to prevent OPL progression into invasive OSCC in a murine model. A distinct pattern of immune modulation was observed when either the CD40 or the PD-1/PD-L1 pathways were targeted.

Time-varying survival effects for squamous cell carcinomas at oropharyngeal and nonoropharyngeal head and neck sites in the United States, 1973-2015

BACKGROUND

Anatomical site is strongly associated with head and neck cancer etiology, and etiology and patient sociodemographic characteristics are prognostic factors for survival. It is not known whether the effects of these predictors persist over the postdiagnosis period or are strongest proximal to the time of diagnosis.

METHODS

Using survival times and causes of death for 180,434 patients with head and neck cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry (1973-2015), the empirical cumulative incidences of cancer-specific death and other-cause death were calculated with a competing risks framework, and the time-dependent effects (hazard ratios) of anatomical tumor site (oropharynx, oral cavity, or hypopharynx/larynx), age, sex, race, and year of diagnosis on cancer-specific death and other-cause death, stratified by tumor stage, were estimated.

RESULTS

All effects were significantly time-varying (P < .001). Patients with nonoropharyngeal cancer had a higher hazard of cancer-specific death but a similar cumulative fraction of deaths because of a higher rate of death from other causes. Cancer-specific survival has not changed for patients with nonoropharyngeal cancer over the past decades but has improved since 2000 for patients with oropharyngeal cancer. The effects of age and sex on cancer survival were strongest proximal to the diagnosis, whereas the effect of race persisted over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent improvements in survival for patients with oropharyngeal cancer may be due more to an increasing fraction of cancers attributable to human papillomavirus than to increasing treatment effectiveness. The prognostic strength of anatomical site and other predictors changes over the postdiagnosis period.

LAY SUMMARY

It is generally assumed that the effects of tumor and personal characteristics on the survival of patients with head and neck cancer are fixed over time, but this study shows that many factors are most important only in the first few years after diagnosis. Also, recent improvements in the survival of patients with head and neck cancer appear to benefit only patients with cancers of the oropharynx. The improvements may be due more to an increasing fraction of cancers caused by human papillomavirus (which generally have better outcomes) than to advances in head and neck cancer treatment overall.

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Most head and neck cancers are derived from the mucosal epithelium in the oral cavity, pharynx and larynx and are known collectively as head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Oral cavity and larynx cancers are generally associated with tobacco consumption, alcohol abuse or both, whereas pharynx cancers are increasingly attributed to infection with human papillomavirus (HPV), primarily HPV-16. Thus, HNSCC can be separated into HPV-negative and HPV-positive HNSCC. Despite evidence of histological progression from cellular atypia through various degrees of dysplasia, ultimately leading to invasive HNSCC, most patients are diagnosed with late-stage HNSCC without a clinically evident antecedent pre-malignant lesion. Traditional staging of HNSCC using the tumour-node-metastasis system has been supplemented by the 2017 AJCC/UICC staging system, which incorporates additional information relevant to HPV-positive disease. Treatment is generally multimodal, consisting of surgery followed by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for oral cavity cancers and primary CRT for pharynx and larynx cancers. The EGFR monoclonal antibody cetuximab is generally used in combination with radiation in HPV-negative HNSCC where comorbidities prevent the use of cytotoxic chemotherapy. The FDA approved the immune checkpoint inhibitors pembrolizumab and nivolumab for treatment of recurrent or metastatic HNSCC and pembrolizumab as primary treatment for unresectable disease. Elucidation of the molecular genetic landscape of HNSCC over the past decade has revealed new opportunities for therapeutic intervention. Ongoing efforts aim to integrate our understanding of HNSCC biology and immunobiology to identify predictive biomarkers that will enable delivery of the most effective, least-toxic therapies.

Estimating growth patterns and driver effects in tumor evolution from individual samples

Tumors accumulate thousands of mutations, and sequencing them has given rise to methods for finding cancer drivers via mutational recurrence. However, these methods require large cohorts and underperform for low recurrence. Recently, ultra-deep sequencing has enabled accurate measurement of VAFs (variant-allele frequencies) for mutations, allowing the determination of evolutionary trajectories. Here, based solely on the VAF spectrum for an individual sample, we report on a method that identifies drivers and quantifies tumor growth. Drivers introduce perturbations into the spectrum, and our method uses the frequency of hitchhiking mutations preceding a driver to measure this. As validation, we use simulation models and 993 tumors from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium with previously identified drivers. Then we apply our method to an ultra-deep sequenced acute myeloid leukemia (AML) tumor and identify known cancer genes and additional driver candidates. In summary, our framework presents opportunities for personalized driver diagnosis using sequencing data from a single individual.

Notch Intracellular Domain (NICD) Expression and Clinical Manifestations of Second Primary Tumor at Esophagus in Patients with Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Introduction

Second primary tumor (SPT) is a major factor that affects the survival of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients, and the esophagus is a common site. Detection of SPT is essential for optimal HNSCC treatment planning and follow-up. Mutation of the NOTCH1 gene is common in head and neck cancer. However, details relating to Notch signaling and clinical outcomes among different primary tumors are still inconclusive. This study aimed to identify the role of the Notch signaling pathway in HNSCC, and to compare NOTCH1 expression in HNSCC compared between those with and without SPT at esophagus while focusing on the Notch intracellular domain (NICD).

Methods

Twenty-three cases of esophageal SPT and 47 non-SPT controls that were treated at Siriraj Hospital during 2006–2017 were included. Patient information and clinical outcomes were analyzed. NICD expression demonstrated by immunohistochemistry technique in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens was studied.

Results

Mean age of SPT and non-SPT was 55.13 and 62.09 years, respectively, and 94.3% of patients were male. Regarding SPT detection, 82.6% were synchronous and 17.4% were metachronous. There was significantly more active smoking among SPT than among non-SPT (87.0% vs 51.1%, p=0.01). Active alcohol use was also significantly greater among SPT than among non-SPT (87.0% vs 61.7%; p=0.04). Hypopharynx was the most common primary tumor site among SPT. Three-year and 5-year survival among SPT patients was 38.0% and 25.3%, respectively. NICD expression was absent in 52.2% of SPT, and in 53.3% of non-SPT. NICD expression intensity was mostly weak or moderate.

Conclusion

Active smoking and alcohol use were found to be significantly associated with SPT development. A high percentage of NICD inactivation was noted in HNSCC with no significant difference between groups. The Notch signaling pathway is involved in HNSCC tumorigenesis, but may not be a suitable molecular marker for SPT development.

Somatic mutations and promotor methylation of the ryanodine receptor 2 is a common event in the pathogenesis of head and neck cancer

Genomic sequencing projects unraveled the mutational landscape of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and provided a comprehensive catalog of somatic mutations. However, the limited number of significant cancer-related genes obtained so far only partially explains the biological complexity of HNSCC and hampers the development of novel diagnostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets. We pursued a multiscale omics approach based on whole-exome sequencing, global DNA methylation and gene expression profiling data derived from tumor samples of the HIPO-HNC cohort (n = 87), and confirmed new findings with datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Promoter methylation was confirmed by MassARRAY analysis and protein expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry and immunofluorescence staining. We discovered a set of cancer-related genes with frequent somatic mutations and high frequency of promoter methylation. This included the ryanodine receptor 2 (RYR2), which showed variable promoter methylation and expression in both tumor samples and cell lines. Immunohistochemical staining of tissue sections unraveled a gradual loss of RYR2 expression from normal mucosa via dysplastic lesion to invasive cancer and indicated that reduced RYR2 expression in adjacent tissue and precancerous lesions might serve as risk factor for unfavorable prognosis and upcoming malignant conversion. In summary, our data indicate that impaired RYR2 function by either somatic mutation or epigenetic silencing is a common event in HNSCC pathogenesis. Detection of RYR2 expression and/or promoter methylation might enable risk assessment for malignant conversion of dysplastic lesions.

Laryngeal Cancer Attributable Factors and the Influence on Survival Rates: A Single Brazilian Institution Experience

Introduction  Epidemiological studies focused on prognostic factors associated with laryngeal cancer in the Brazilian population are poorly reported in the literature.

Objective  To evaluate the influence of certain risk factors on the survival rates of patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the larynx.

Methods  This retrospective study was conducted on adult patients who were admitted to the outpatient clinic of the head and neck department in a tertiary care hospital. Evaluation of the influence of risk factors on the survival rates of patients registered in the hospital with laryngeal SCC was performed based on age, sex, initial stage, time of evolution, habits, educational levels and relapse and death. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and clinical-demographic data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, Log-rank test and Cox regression.

Results  A total of 107 patients with a mean age of 59.8 years (range 19–81) were included in this study. Stages III and IV were associated with decreased DFS ( p  = 0.02) and OS ( p  = 0.02). Smoking patients had a greater period of disease evolution than non-smoking patients ( p  = 0.003). Alcohol consumption in smokers increased the risk of death by 2.8 ( p  = 0.002) compared with non-drinking smokers. Male patients presented lower DFS average when compared with female patients ( p  = 0.04).

Conclusion  Our study confirms that male gender, smoking habit combined with alcohol consumption, and advanced stages were strongly associated with poor prognosis.

A morphological classification for vocal fold leukoplakia

Introduction

There is still no general method for discriminating between benign and malignant leukoplakia and identifying vocal fold leukoplakia.

Objective

To evaluate the reliability of a morphological classification and the correlation between morphological types and pathological grades of vocal fold leukoplakia.

Methods

A total of 375 patients with vocal fold leukoplakia between 2009 and 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Two observers divided the vocal fold leukoplakia into flat and smooth, elevated and smooth, and rough type on the basis of morphological appearance. The inter-observer reliability was evaluated and the results of classification from both observers were compared with final pathological grades. Clinical characteristics between low risk and high risk group were also analyzed.

Results

The percentage inter-observer agreement of the morphological classification was 78.7% (κ = 0.615, p < 0.001). In the results from both observers, the morphological types were significantly correlated with the pathological grades (p₁ < 0.001, p₂ < 0.001, Kruskal–Wallis test; r₁ = 0.646, p₁ < 0.001, r₂ = 0.539, p₂ < 0.001, Spearman Correlation Analysis). Multivariate analysis showed patient's age (p = 0.018), the size of lesion (p < 0.001), and morphological type (p < 0.001) were significantly different between low risk group and high risk group. Combined receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of significant parameters revealed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.863 (95% CI 0.823–0.903, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

The proposed morphological classification of vocal fold leukoplakia was consistent between observers and morphological types correlated with pathological grades. Patient's age, the size of lesion, and morphological type might enable risk stratification and provide treatment guidelines for vocal fold leukoplakia.

Precancer in ulcerative colitis: the role of the field effect and its clinical implications

Cumulative evidence indicates that a significant proportion of cancer evolution may occur before the development of histological abnormalities. While recent improvements in DNA sequencing technology have begun to reveal the presence of these early preneoplastic clones, the concept of 'premalignant field' was already introduced by Slaughter more than half a century ago. Also referred to as 'field effect', 'field defect' or 'field cancerization', these terms describe the phenomenon by which molecular alterations develop in normal-appearing tissue and expand to form premalignant patches with the potential to progress to dysplasia and cancer. Field effects have been well-characterized in ulcerative colitis, an inflammatory bowel disease that increases the risk of colorectal cancer. The study of the molecular alterations that define these fields is informative of mechanisms of tumor initiation and progression and has provided potential targets for early cancer detection. Herein, we summarize the current knowledge about the molecular alterations that comprise the field effect in ulcerative colitis and the clinical utility of these fields for cancer screening and prevention.

An evolutionary perspective on field cancerization

Tumorigenesis begins long before the growth of a clinically detectable lesion and, indeed, even before any of the usual morphological correlates of pre-malignancy are recognizable. Field cancerization, which is the replacement of the normal cell population by a cancer-primed cell population that may show no morphological change, is now recognized to underlie the development of many types of cancer, including the common carcinomas of the lung, colon, skin, prostate and bladder. Field cancerization is the consequence of the evolution of somatic cells in the body that results in cells that carry some but not all phenotypes required for malignancy. Here, we review the evidence of field cancerization across organs and examine the biological mechanisms that drive the evolutionary process that results in field creation. We discuss the clinical implications, principally, how measurements of the cancerized field could improve cancer risk prediction in patients with pre-malignant disease.

A Multi-stage Representation of Cell Proliferation as a Markov Process

The stochastic simulation algorithm commonly known as Gillespie’s algorithm (originally derived for modelling well-mixed systems of chemical reactions) is now used ubiquitously in the modelling of biological processes in which stochastic effects play an important role. In well-mixed scenarios at the sub-cellular level it is often reasonable to assume that times between successive reaction/interaction events are exponentially distributed and can be appropriately modelled as a Markov process and hence simulated by the Gillespie algorithm. However, Gillespie’s algorithm is routinely applied to model biological systems for which it was never intended. In particular, processes in which cell proliferation is important (e.g. embryonic development, cancer formation) should not be simulated naively using the Gillespie algorithm since the history-dependent nature of the cell cycle breaks the Markov process. The variance in experimentally measured cell cycle times is far less than in an exponential cell cycle time distribution with the same mean.

Here we suggest a method of modelling the cell cycle that restores the memoryless property to the system and is therefore consistent with simulation via the Gillespie algorithm. By breaking the cell cycle into a number of independent exponentially distributed stages, we can restore the Markov property at the same time as more accurately approximating the appropriate cell cycle time distributions. The consequences of our revised mathematical model are explored analytically as far as possible. We demonstrate the importance of employing the correct cell cycle time distribution by recapitulating the results from two models incorporating cellular proliferation (one spatial and one non-spatial) and demonstrating that changing the cell cycle time distribution makes quantitative and qualitative differences to the outcome of the models. Our adaptation will allow modellers and experimentalists alike to appropriately represent cellular proliferation—vital to the accurate modelling of many biological processes—whilst still being able to take advantage of the power and efficiency of the popular Gillespie algorithm.