Modeled Reductions in Late-stage Cancer with a Multi-Cancer Early Detection Test

A consultation and work-up diagnosis protocol for a multicancer early detection test: a case series study

The emergence of multicancer early detection (MCED) tests holds promise for improving early cancer detection and public health outcomes. However, positive MCED test results require confirmation through recommended cancer diagnostic imaging modalities. To address these challenges, we have developed a consultation and work-up protocol for definitive diagnostic results post MCED testing, named SPOT-MAS. Developed through circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis and in line with professional guidelines and advisory board consensus, this protocol standardizes information to aid general practitioners in accessing, interpreting and managing SPOT-MAS results. Clinical effectiveness is demonstrated through a series of identified cancer cases. Our research indicates that the protocol could empower healthcare professionals to confidently interpret circulating tumor DNA test results for 5 common types of cancer, thereby facilitating the clinical integration of MCED tests.

Unlocking the future of cancer diagnosis - promises and challenges of ctDNA-based liquid biopsies in non-small cell lung cancer

The advent of liquid biopsies has brought significant changes to the diagnosis and monitoring of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), presenting both promise and challenges. Molecularly targeted drugs, capable of enhancing survival rates, are now available to around a quarter of NSCLC patients. However, to ensure their effectiveness, precision diagnosis is essential. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis as the most advanced liquid biopsy modality to date offers a non-invasive method for tracking genomic changes in NSCLC. The potential of ctDNA is particularly rooted in its ability to furnish comprehensive (epi-)genetic insights into the tumor, thereby aiding personalized treatment strategies. One of the key advantages of ctDNA-based liquid biopsies in NSCLC is their ability to capture tumor heterogeneity. This capability ensures a more precise depiction of the tumor's (epi-)genomic landscape compared to conventional tissue biopsies. Consequently, it facilitates the identification of (epi-)genetic alterations, enabling informed treatment decisions, disease progression monitoring, and early detection of resistance-causing mutations for timely therapeutic interventions. Here we review the current state-of-the-art in ctDNA-based liquid biopsy technologies for NSCLC, exploring their potential to revolutionize clinical practice. Key advancements in ctDNA detection methods, including PCR-based assays, next-generation sequencing (NGS), and digital PCR (dPCR), are discussed, along with their respective strengths and limitations. Additionally, the clinical utility of ctDNA analysis in guiding treatment decisions, monitoring treatment response, detecting minimal residual disease, and identifying emerging resistance mechanisms is examined. Liquid biopsy analysis bears the potential of transforming NSCLC management by enabling non-invasive monitoring of Minimal Residual Disease and providing early indicators for response to targeted treatments including immunotherapy. Furthermore, considerations regarding sample collection, processing, and data interpretation are highlighted as crucial factors influencing the reliability and reproducibility of ctDNA-based assays. Addressing these challenges will be essential for the widespread adoption of ctDNA-based liquid biopsies in routine clinical practice, ultimately paving the way toward personalized medicine and improved outcomes for patients with NSCLC.

Clinical performance and utility: A microsimulation model to inform the design of screening trials for a multi-cancer early detection test

OBJECTIVES

Designing cancer screening trials for multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests presents a significant methodology challenge, as natural histories of cell-free DNA-shedding cancers are not yet known. A microsimulation model was developed to project the performance and utility of an MCED test in cancer screening trials.

METHODS

Individual natural history of preclinical progression through cancer stages for 23 cancer classes was simulated by a stage-transition model under a broad range of cancer latency parameters. Cancer incidences and stage distributions at clinical presentation in simulated trials were set to match the data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. One or multiple rounds of annual screening using a targeted methylation-based MCED test (GalleriⓇ) was conducted to detect preclinical cancers. Mortality benefit of early detection was simulated by a stage-shift model.

RESULTS

In simulated trials, accounting for healthy volunteer effect and varying test sensitivity, positive predictive value in the prevalence screening round reached 48% to 61% in 6 natural history scenarios. After 3 rounds of annual screening, the cumulative proportions of stage I/II cancers increased by approximately 9% to 14%, the incidence of stage IV cancers was reduced by 37% to 46%, the reduction of stages III and IV cancer incidences was 9% to 24%, and the reduction of mortality reached 13% to 16%. Greater reductions of late-stage cancers and cancer mortality were achieved by five rounds of MCED screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Simulation results guide trial design and suggest that adding this MCED test to routine screening in the United States may shift cancer detection to earlier stages, and potentially save lives.

Perspectives of primary care providers regarding multicancer early detection panels

OBJECTIVE

Multicancer early detection panels have recently become available to patients with healthcare provider prescriptions and available funds. These tests utilize circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) to screen more than 50 cancers using a single blood sample. However, perspectives and data on how the deployment of these tests may impact the practices of primary care providers in terms of implementation, interpretation, documentation, and costs are limited. This study aimed to assess the perspectives of primary care providers regarding the integration of multicancer early detection panels into clinical practice.

METHODS

We used a survey to assess the opinions and perspectives of primary care providers, including physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants, across a multistate, tertiary healthcare system. We used a single form consisting of novel questions on familiarity with multi-cancer early detection panels, cost, healthcare equity, documentation, medicolegal, and other concerns. The subgroup analysis was consistent with stratification based on familiarity with ctDNA-based tests and their roles in clinical practice.

RESULTS

Most respondents were unfamiliar with multicancer early detection panels and had not used ctDNA-based tests. Most primary care providers suggested that they would reorder multicancer early detection panel testing at 1- to 5-year intervals and prefer subspecialists for both ordering multicancer early detection panels as well as interpreting their results. Relative concerns differed between physicians and nonphysicians.

CONCLUSION

The integration of multicancer early detection panels into primary care practice requires careful planning and consideration for the management of increased clinical load, interpretation of results, and cost management.

Leveraging cfDNA fragmentomic features in a stacked ensemble model for early detection of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

In this study, we develop a stacked ensemble model that utilizes cell-free DNA (cfDNA) fragmentomics for the early detection of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This model incorporates four distinct fragmentomics features derived from whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and advanced machine learning algorithms for robust analysis. It is validated across both an independent validation cohort and an external cohort to ensure its generalizability and effectiveness. Notably, the model maintains its robustness in low-coverage sequencing environments, demonstrating its potentials in clinical settings with limited sequencing resources. With its remarkable sensitivity and specificity, this approach promises to significantly improve the early diagnosis and management of ESCC. This study represents a substantial step forward in the application of cfDNA fragmentomics in cancer diagnostics, emphasizing the need for further research to fully establish its clinical efficacy.

Alternative endpoints to mortality in cancer screening trials

The reliance on mortality endpoints in cancer screening trials is not always compatible with the need to accelerate progress in outcomes for patient and public benefit. Evaluation of novel cancer screening technologies, such as multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, could be expedited by using alternative metrics that are measurable earlier than mortality. These include endpoints based on cancer stage at diagnosis, such as reduction in late-stage cancer incidence, and endpoints following cancer diagnosis, such as eligibility for curative therapy. Innovative trial designs with earlier measures that complement cancer mortality are needed to realise the potential benefits of novel screening technologies such as MCEDs more rapidly.

Bridging the gap in cervical cancer screening for underserved communities: MCED and the promise of future technologies

Cervical cancer screening is a critical public health measure, especially vital for underserved communities where disparities in access and outcomes are pronounced. Despite the life-saving potential of regular screening, numerous barriers-including geographical isolation, cultural and linguistic challenges, and socioeconomic factors-severely hinder accessibility for these populations. Multicancer early detection (MCED) tests emerge as a potentially effective intervention, offering a less invasive, more accessible approach that could transform how screenings are conducted. This paper explores the existing challenges in traditional cervical cancer screening methods, the potential of MCED tests to address these barriers, and the implications of these technologies for global health equity. Through a comprehensive review, we highlight the need for culturally sensitive, tailored interventions and the importance of effectively overcoming logistical and financial difficulties to implement MCED tests. Despite the promise shown by MCED tests, the paper acknowledges significant implementation challenges, including cost, logistical obstacles, and the need for cultural acceptance and validation studies. This study emphasizes the necessity for equitable MCED test implementation strategies, highlighting the potential of these innovative technologies to advance global health equity in cervical cancer prevention.

Early detection of uterine corpus endometrial carcinoma utilizing plasma cfDNA fragmentomics

BACKGROUND

Uterine corpus endometrial carcinoma (UCEC) is a prevalent gynecologic malignancy with a favorable prognosis if detected early. However, there is a lack of accurate and reliable early detection tests for UCEC. This study aims to develop a precise and non-invasive diagnostic method for UCEC using circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) fragmentomics.

METHODS

Peripheral blood samples were collected from all participants, and cfDNA was extracted for analysis. Low-coverage whole-genome sequencing was performed to obtain cfDNA fragmentomics data. A robust machine learning model was developed using these features to differentiate between UCEC and healthy conditions.

RESULTS

The cfDNA fragmentomics-based model showed high predictive power for UCEC detection in training (n = 133; AUC 0.991) and validation cohorts (n = 89; AUC 0.994). The model manifested a specificity of 95.5% and a sensitivity of 98.5% in the training cohort, and a specificity of 95.5% and a sensitivity of 97.8% in the validation cohort. Physiological variables and preanalytical procedures had no significant impact on the classifier's outcomes. In terms of clinical benefit, our model would identify 99% of Chinese UCEC patients at stage I, compared to 21% under standard care, potentially raising the 5-year survival rate from 84 to 95%.

CONCLUSION

This study presents a novel approach for the early detection of UCEC using cfDNA fragmentomics and machine learning showing promising sensitivity and specificity. Using this model in clinical practice could significantly improve UCEC management and control, enabling early intervention and better patient outcomes. Further optimization and validation of this approach are warranted to establish its clinical utility.

The Role of Biomarkers in HPV-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Towards Precision Medicine

Head and neck cancer (HNC) represents a significant global health challenge, with squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) accounting for approximately 90% of all HNC cases. These malignancies, collectively referred to as head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), originate from the mucosal epithelium lining the larynx, pharynx, and oral cavity. The primary risk factors associated with HNSCC in economically disadvantaged nations have been chronic alcohol consumption and tobacco use. However, in more affluent countries, the landscape of HNSCC has shifted with the identification of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, particularly HPV-16, as a major risk factor, especially among nonsmokers. Understanding the evolving risk factors and the distinct biological behaviors of HPV-positive and HPV-negative HNSCC is critical for developing targeted treatment strategies and improving patient outcomes in this complex and diverse group of cancers. Accurate diagnosis of HPV-positive HNSCC is essential for developing a comprehensive model that integrates the molecular characteristics, immune microenvironment, and clinical outcomes. The aim of this comprehensive review was to summarize the current knowledge and advances in the identification of DNA, RNA, and protein biomarkers in bodily fluids and tissues that have introduced new possibilities for minimally or non-invasive cancer diagnosis, monitoring, and assessment of therapeutic responses.

Circulating Tumor DNA in Genitourinary Cancers: Detection, Prognostics, and Therapeutic Implications

CtDNA is emerging as a non-invasive clinical detection method for several cancers, including genitourinary (GU) cancers such as prostate cancer, bladder cancer, and renal cell carcinoma (RCC). CtDNA assays have shown promise in early detection of GU cancers, providing prognostic information, assessing real-time treatment response, and detecting residual disease and relapse. The ease of obtaining a "liquid biopsy" from blood or urine in GU cancers enhances its potential to be used as a biomarker. Interrogating these "liquid biopsies" for ctDNA can then be used to detect common cancer mutations, novel genomic alterations, or epigenetic modifications. CtDNA has undergone investigation in numerous clinical trials, which could address clinical needs in GU cancers, for instance, earlier detection in RCC, therapeutic response prediction in castration-resistant prostate cancer, and monitoring for recurrence in bladder cancers. The utilization of liquid biopsy for ctDNA analysis provides a promising method of advancing precision medicine within the field of GU cancers.

Projecting the Impact of Multi-Cancer Early Detection on Late-Stage Incidence Using Multi-State Disease Modeling

BACKGROUND

Downstaging-reduction in late-stage incidence-has been proposed as an endpoint in randomized trials of multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests. How downstaging depends on test performance and follow-up has been studied for some cancers but is understudied for cancers without existing screening and for MCED tests that include these cancer types.

METHODS

We develop a model for cancer natural history that can be fit to registry incidence patterns under minimal inputs and can be estimated for solid cancers without existing screening. Fitted models are combined to project downstaging in MCED trials given sensitivity for early- and late-stage cancers. We fit models for 12 cancers using incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and project downstaging in a simulated trial under variable preclinical latencies and test sensitivities.

RESULTS

A proof-of-principle lung cancer model approximated downstaging in the National Lung Screening Trial. Given published stage-specific sensitivities for 12 cancers, we projected downstaging ranging from 21% to 43% across plausible preclinical latencies in a hypothetical 3-screen MCED trial. Late-stage incidence reductions manifest soon after screening begins. Downstaging increases with longer early-stage latency or higher early-stage test sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Even short-term MCED trials could produce substantial downstaging given adequate early-stage test sensitivity.

IMPACT

Modeling the natural histories of cancers without existing screening facilitates analysis of novel MCED products and trial designs. The framework informs expectations of MCED impact on disease stage at diagnosis and could serve as a building block for designing trials with late-stage incidence as the primary endpoint.

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA): can it be used as a pan-cancer early detection test?

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA, DNA shed by cancer cells) is emerging as one of the most transformative cancer biomarkers discovered to-date. Although potentially useful at all the phases of cancer detection and patient management, one of its most exciting possibilities is as a relatively noninvasive pan-cancer screening test. Preliminary findings with ctDNA tests such as Galleri or CancerSEEK suggest that they have high specificity (> 99.0%) for malignancy. Their sensitivity varies depending on the type of cancer and stage of disease but it is generally low in patients with stage I disease. A major advantage of ctDNA over existing screening strategies is the potential ability to detect multiple cancer types in a single test. A limitation of most studies published to-date is that they are predominantly case-control investigations that were carried out in patients with a previous diagnosis of malignancy and that used apparently healthy subjects as controls. Consequently, the reported sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values might be lower if the tests are used for screening in asymptomatic populations, that is, in the population where these tests are likely be employed. To demonstrate clinical utility in an asymptomatic population, these tests must be shown to reduce cancer mortality without causing excessive overdiagnosis in a large randomized prospective randomized trial. Such trials are currently ongoing for Galleri and CancerSEEK.

Impact of screening participation on modelled mortality benefits of a multi-cancer early detection test by socioeconomic group in England

BACKGROUND

Cancer burden is higher and cancer screening participation is lower among individuals living in more socioeconomically deprived areas of England, contributing to worse health outcomes and shorter life expectancy. Owing to higher multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test sensitivity for poor-prognosis cancers and greater cancer burden in groups experiencing greater deprivation, MCED screening programmes may have greater relative benefits in these groups. We modelled potential differential benefits of MCED screening between deprivation groups in England at different levels of screening participation.

METHODS

We applied the interception multi-cancer screening model to cancer incidence and survival data made available by the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in England to estimate reductions in late-stage diagnoses and cancer mortality from an MCED screening programme by deprivation group across 24 cancer types. We assessed the impact of varying the proportion of people who participated in annual screening in each deprivation group on these estimates.

RESULTS

The modelled benefits of an MCED screening programme were substantial: reductions in late-stage diagnoses were 160 and 274 per 100 000 persons in the least and most deprived groups, respectively. Reductions in cancer mortality were 60 and 99 per 100 000 persons in the least and most deprived groups, respectively. Benefits were greatest in the most deprived group at every participation level and were attenuated with lower screening participation.

CONCLUSIONS

For the greatest possible population benefit and to decrease health inequalities, an MCED implementation strategy should focus on enhancing equitable, informed participation, enabling equal participation across all socioeconomic deprivation groups.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05611632.

Multimodal analysis of cfDNA methylomes for early detecting esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and precancerous lesions

Detecting early-stage esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and precancerous lesions is critical for improving survival. Here, we conduct whole-genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS) on 460 cfDNA samples from patients with non-metastatic ESCC or precancerous lesions and matched healthy controls. We develop an expanded multimodal analysis (EMMA) framework to simultaneously identify cfDNA methylation, copy number variants (CNVs), and fragmentation markers in cfDNA WGBS data. cfDNA methylation markers are the earliest and most sensitive, detectable in 70% of ESCCs and 50% of precancerous lesions, and associated with molecular subtypes and tumor microenvironments. CNVs and fragmentation features show high specificity but are linked to late-stage disease. EMMA significantly improves detection rates, increasing AUCs from 0.90 to 0.99, and detects 87% of ESCCs and 62% of precancerous lesions with >95% specificity in validation cohorts. Our findings demonstrate the potential of multimodal analysis of cfDNA methylome for early detection and monitoring of molecular characteristics in ESCC.

A multi-cancer early detection blood test using machine learning detects early-stage cancers lacking USPSTF-recommended screening

US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines recommend single-cancer screening for select cancers (e.g., breast, cervical, colorectal, lung). Advances in genome sequencing and machine learning have facilitated the development of blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests intended to complement single-cancer screening. MCED tests can interrogate circulating cell-free DNA to detect a shared cancer signal across multiple tumor types. We report real-world experience with an MCED test that detected cancer signals in three individuals subsequently diagnosed with cancers of the ovary, kidney, and head/neck that lack USPSTF-recommended screening. These cases illustrate the potential of MCED tests to detect early-stage cancers amenable to cure.

Relationships Among Determinants of Health, Cancer Screening Participation, and Sexual Minority Identity: A Systematic Review

Purpose: To address cancer screening disparities and reduce cancer risk among sexual minority (SM) groups, this review identifies individual, interpersonal, and community/societal determinants of cancer screening (non)participation among differing SM identities. Methods: Seven scientific databases were searched. Inclusion criteria were as follows: (1) used quantitative methods; (2) English language; (3) cancer screening focus; and (4) at least one SM group identified. Articles were excluded if: (1) analysis was not disaggregated by SM identity (n = 29) and (2) quantitative analysis excluded determinants of cancer screening (n = 19). The Sexual and Gender Minority Health Disparities Research Framework guided literature synthesis. Results: Twelve studies addressed cervical (n = 4), breast (n = 3), breast/cervical (n = 3), or multiple cancers (n = 2). Other cancers were excluded due to inclusion/exclusion criteria. The total sample was 20,622 (mean 1525), including lesbian (n = 13,409), bisexual (n = 4442), gay (n = 1386), mostly heterosexual (n = 1302), and queer (n = 83) identities. Studies analyzing individual-level determinants (n = 8) found that socioeconomic status affected cervical, but not breast, cancer screening among lesbian and bisexual participants (n = 2). At the interpersonal level (n = 7), provider-patient relationship was a determinant of cervical cancer screening among lesbian participants (n = 4); a relationship not studied for other groups. Studies analyzing community/societal determinants (n = 5) found that rurality potentially affected cervical cancer screening among lesbian, but not bisexual people (n = 3). Conclusions: This review identified socioeconomic status, provider-patient relationship, and rurality as determinants affecting cancer screening among SM people. While literature addresses diverse SM groups, inclusion/exclusion criteria identified studies addressing cisgender women. Addressing disparities in the identified determinants of cervical cancer screening may improve participation among SM women. Further research is needed to understand determinants of cancer screening unique to other SM groups.

Blood-based screening for HPV-associated cancers

Background

HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer (HPV+OPSCC) is the most common HPV-associated cancer in the United States yet unlike cervical cancer lacks a screening test. HPV+OPSCCs are presumed to start developing 10-15 years prior to clinical diagnosis. Circulating tumor HPV DNA (ctHPVDNA) is a sensitive and specific biomarker for HPV+OPSCC. Taken together, blood-based screening for HPV+OPSCC may be feasible years prior to diagnosis.

Methods

We developed an HPV whole genome sequencing assay, HPV-DeepSeek, with 99% sensitivity and specificity at clinical diagnosis. 28 plasma samples from HPV+OPSCC patients collected 1.3-10.8 years prior to diagnosis along with 1:1 age and gender-matched controls were run on HPV-DeepSeek and an HPV serology assay.

Results

22/28 (79%) of cases and 0/28 controls screened positive for HPV+OPSCC with 100% detection within four years of diagnosis and a maximum lead time of 7.8 years. We next applied a machine learning model classifying 27/28 cases (96%) with 100% detection within 10 years. Plasma-based PIK3CA gene mutations, viral genome integration events and HPV serology were used to orthogonally validate cancer detection with 68% (19/28) of the cohort having multiple cancer signals detected. Molecular fingerprinting of HPV genomes was performed across patients demonstrating that each viral genome was unique, ruling out contamination. In patients with tumor blocks from diagnosis (15/28), molecular fingerprinting was performed within patients confirming the same viral genome across time.

Conclusions

We demonstrate accurate blood-based detection of HPV-associated cancers with lead times up to 10 years before clinical cancer diagnosis and in doing so, highlight the enormous potential of ctDNA-based cancer screening.

Circulating cell-free DNA-based multi-cancer early detection

Patients benefit considerably from early detection of cancer. Existing single-cancer tests have various limitations, which could be effectively addressed by circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA)-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED). With sensitive detection and accurate localization of multiple cancer types at a very low and fixed false-positive rate (FPR), MCED has great potential to revolutionize early cancer detection. Herein, we review state-of-the-art approaches for cfDNA-based MCED and their limitations and discuss both technical and clinical challenges in the development and application of MCED tests. Given the constant improvements in technology and understanding of cancer biology, we propose that a cfDNA-based targeted sequencing assay that integrates multimodal features should be optimized for MCED.

Ultra-short cell-free DNA fragments enhance cancer early detection in a multi-analyte blood test combining mutation, protein and fragmentomics

OBJECTIVES

Cancer morbidity and mortality can be reduced if the cancer is detected early. Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) fragmentomics emerged as a novel epigenetic biomarker for early cancer detection, however, it is still at its infancy and requires technical improvement. We sought to apply a single-strand DNA sequencing technology, for measuring genetic and fragmentomic features of cfDNA and evaluate the performance in detecting multiple cancers.

METHODS

Blood samples of 364 patients from six cancer types (colorectal, esophageal, gastric, liver, lung, and ovarian cancers) and 675 healthy individuals were included in this study. Circulating tumor DNA mutations, cfDNA fragmentomic features and a set of protein biomarkers were assayed. Sensitivity and specificity were reported by cancer types and stages.

RESULTS

Circular Ligation Amplification and sequencing (CLAmp-seq), a single-strand DNA sequencing technology, yielded a population of ultra-short fragments (<100 bp) than double-strand DNA preparation protocols and reveals a more significant size difference between cancer and healthy cfDNA fragments (25.84 bp vs. 16.05 bp). Analysis of the subnucleosomal peaks in ultra-short cfDNA fragments indicates that these peaks are regulatory element "footprints" and correlates with gene expression and cancer stages. At 98 % specificity, a prediction model using ctDNA mutations alone showed an overall sensitivity of 46 %; sensitivity reaches 60 % when protein is added, sensitivity further increases to 66 % when fragmentomics is also integrated. More improvements observed for samples representing earlier cancer stages than later ones.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest synergistic properties of protein, genetic and fragmentomics features in the identification of early-stage cancers.

A non-invasive method for concurrent detection of multiple early-stage cancers in women

Untargeted serum metabolomics was combined with machine learning-powered data analytics to develop a test for the concurrent detection of multiple cancers in women. A total of fifteen cancers were tested where the resulting metabolome data was sequentially analysed using two separate algorithms. The first algorithm successfully identified all the cancer-positive samples with an overall accuracy of > 99%. This result was particularly significant given that the samples tested were predominantly from early-stage cancers. Samples identified as cancer-positive were next analysed using a multi-class algorithm, which then enabled accurate discernment of the tissue of origin for the individual samples. Integration of serum metabolomics with appropriate data analytical tools, therefore, provides a powerful screening platform for early-stage cancers.

Testing Whether Cancer Screening Saves Lives: Implications for Randomized Clinical Trials of Multicancer Screening

Importance

Cancer screening is often promoted as a means to save lives. The question of whether cancer screening truly saves lives is becoming increasingly relevant given the growing enthusiasm for multicancer detection blood tests (ie, liquid biopsies). It is possible in randomized clinical trials for screening to reduce deaths due to the targeted cancer without reducing deaths due to all causes. To explore the feasibility of powering studies for cancer-specific vs all-cause mortality, a series of sample size calculations was performed for selected cancers (breast, colorectal, liver, pancreas, and prostate) and for all cancers combined.

Observations

Randomized clinical trials of screening for an individual cancer typically require 100 000 or more participants to test its effect on cancer-specific mortality. Testing all-cause mortality requires trials of more than a million participants. However, the sample size requirements change markedly when considering a randomized clinical trial of screening for all cancers, as is envisioned when using multicancer detection blood tests. In this setting, the question of whether cancer screening reduces all-cause mortality can be reasonably addressed in a trial of fewer than 100 000 participants.

Conclusions and Relevance

It is not feasible to test all-cause mortality when screening for an individual cancer. However, it is feasible to test all-cause mortality for multicancer screening because cancer deaths are such a large component of deaths in general. Observational data on the effects of cancer screening are misleading. Multicancer screening would entail tremendous costs and potentially substantial harms. For these reasons, a randomized clinical trial is mandatory not only to learn if multicancer screening saves lives, but also to learn how frequently it causes harm.

Cost-Effectiveness of Liquid Biopsy for Colorectal Cancer Screening in Patients Who Are Unscreened

Importance

Despite recommendations for universal screening, adherence to colorectal cancer screening in the US is approximately 60%. Liquid biopsy tests are in development for cancer early detection, but it is unclear whether they are cost-effective for colorectal cancer screening.

Objective

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of liquid biopsy for colorectal cancer screening in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this economic evaluation, a Markov model was developed to compare no screening and 5 colorectal cancer screening strategies: colonoscopy, liquid biopsy, liquid biopsy following nonadherence to colonoscopy, stool DNA, and fecal immunochemical test. Adherence to first-line screening with colonoscopy, stool DNA, or fecal immunochemical test was assumed to be 60.6%, and adherence for liquid biopsy was assumed to be 100%. For colonoscopy, stool DNA, and fecal immunochemical test, patients who did not adhere to testing were not offered other screening. In colonoscopy-liquid biopsy hybrid, liquid biopsy was second-line screening for those who deferred colonoscopy. Scenario analyses were performed to include the possibility of polyp detection for liquid biopsy.

Exposures

No screening, colonoscopy, fecal immunochemical test, stool DNA, liquid biopsy, and colonoscopy-liquid biopsy hybrid screening.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Model outcomes included life expectancy, total cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. A strategy was considered cost-effective if it had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio less than the US willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per life-year gained.

Results

This study used a simulated cohort of patients aged 45 years with average risk of colorectal cancer. In the base case, colonoscopy was the preferred, or cost-effective, strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $28 071 per life-year gained. Colonoscopy-liquid biopsy hybrid had the greatest gain in life-years gained but had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $377 538. Colonoscopy-liquid biopsy hybrid had a greater gain in life-years if liquid biopsy could detect polyps but remained too costly.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this economic evaluation of liquid biopsy for colorectal cancer screening, colonoscopy was a cost-effective strategy for colorectal cancer screening in the general population, and the inclusion of liquid biopsy as a first- or second-line screening strategy was not cost-effective at its current cost and screening performance. Liquid biopsy tests for colorectal cancer screening may become cost-effective if their cost is substantially lowered.

The cancer glycocode as a family of diagnostic biomarkers, exemplified by tumor-associated gangliosides

One unexploited family of cancer biomarkers comprise glycoproteins, carbohydrates, and glycolipids (the Tumor Glycocode).A class of glycolipid cancer biomarkers, the tumor-marker gangliosides (TMGs) are presented here as potential diagnostics for detecting cancer, especially at early stages, as the biological function of TMGs makes them etiological. We propose that a quantitative matrix of the Cancer Biomarker Glycocode and artificial intelligence-driven algorithms will expand the menu of validated cancer biomarkers as a step to resolve some of the challenges in cancer diagnosis, and yield a combination that can identify a specific cancer, in a tissue-agnostic manner especially at early stages, to enable early intervention. Diagnosis is critical to reducing cancer mortality but many cancers lack efficient and effective diagnostic tests, especially for early stage disease. Ideal diagnostic biomarkers are etiological, samples are preferably obtained via non-invasive methods (e.g. liquid biopsy of blood or urine), and are quantitated using assays that yield high diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for efficient diagnosis, prognosis, or predicting response to therapy. Validated biomarkers with these features are rare. While the advent of proteomics and genomics has led to the identification of a multitude of proteins and nucleic acid sequences as cancer biomarkers, relatively few have been approved for clinical use. The use of multiplex arrays and artificial intelligence-driven algorithms offer the option of combining data of known biomarkers; however, for most, the sensitivity and the specificity are below acceptable criteria, and clinical validation has proven difficult. One strategic solution to this problem is to expand the biomarker families beyond those currently exploited. One unexploited family of cancer biomarkers comprise glycoproteins, carbohydrates, and glycolipids (the Tumor Glycocode). Here, we focus on a family of glycolipid cancer biomarkers, the tumor-marker gangliosides (TMGs). We discuss the diagnostic potential of TMGs for detecting cancer, especially at early stages. We include prior studies from the literature to summarize findings for ganglioside quantification, expression, detection, and biological function and its role in various cancers. We highlight the examples of TMGs exhibiting ideal properties of cancer diagnostic biomarkers, and the application of GD2 and GD3 for diagnosis of early stage cancers with high sensitivity and specificity. We propose that a quantitative matrix of the Cancer Biomarker Glycocode and artificial intelligence-driven algorithms will expand the menu of validated cancer biomarkers as a step to resolve some of the challenges in cancer diagnosis, and yield a combination that can identify a specific cancer, in a tissue-agnostic manner especially at early stages, to enable early intervention.

The global burden of lung cancer: current status and future trends

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. However, lung cancer incidence and mortality rates differ substantially across the world, reflecting varying patterns of tobacco smoking, exposure to environmental risk factors and genetics. Tobacco smoking is the leading risk factor for lung cancer. Lung cancer incidence largely reflects trends in smoking patterns, which generally vary by sex and economic development. For this reason, tobacco control campaigns are a central part of global strategies designed to reduce lung cancer mortality. Environmental and occupational lung cancer risk factors, such as unprocessed biomass fuels, asbestos, arsenic and radon, can also contribute to lung cancer incidence in certain parts of the world. Over the past decade, large-cohort clinical studies have established that low-dose CT screening reduces lung cancer mortality, largely owing to increased diagnosis and treatment at earlier disease stages. These data have led to recommendations that individuals with a high risk of lung cancer undergo screening in several economically developed countries and increased implementation of screening worldwide. In this Review, we provide an overview of the global epidemiology of lung cancer. Lung cancer risk factors and global risk reduction efforts are also discussed. Finally, we summarize lung cancer screening policies and their implementation worldwide.

Dying To Find Out: The Cost of Time at the Dawn of the Multicancer Early Detection Era

Cancer is a significant burden worldwide that adversely impacts life expectancy, quality of life, health care costs, and workforce productivity. Although currently recommended screening tests for individual cancers reduce mortality, they detect only a minority of all cancers and sacrifice specificity for high sensitivity, resulting in a high cumulative rate of false positives. Blood-based multicancer early detection tests (MCED) based on next-generation sequencing (NGS) and other technologies hold promise for broadening the number of cancer types detected in screened populations and hope for reducing cancer mortality. The promise of this new technology to improve cancer detection rates and make screening more efficient at the population level demands the development of novel trial designs that accelerate clinical adoption. Carefully designed clinical trials are needed to address these issues.

Perspectives of private payers on multicancer early-detection tests: informing research, implementation, and policy

Emerging blood-based multicancer early-detection (MCED) tests may redefine cancer screening, reduce mortality, and address health disparities if their benefit is demonstrated. U.S. payers' coverage policies will impact MCED test adoption and access; thus, their perspectives must be understood. We examined views, coverage barriers, and evidentiary needs for MCED from 19 private payers collectively covering 150 000 000 enrollees. Most saw an MCED test's potential merit for cancers without current screening (84%), but fewer saw its merit for cancers with existing screening (37%). The largest coverage barriers were inclusion of cancers without demonstrated benefits of early diagnosis (73%), a high false-negative rate (53%), and lack of care protocols for MCED-detected but unconfirmed cancers (53%). The majority (58%) would not require mortality evidence and would accept surrogate endpoints. Most payers (64%) would accept rigorous real-world evidence in the absence of a large randomized controlled trial. The majority (74%) did not expect MCED to reduce disparities due to potential harm from overtreatment resulting from an MCED and barriers to downstream care. Payers' perspectives and evidentiary needs may inform MCED test developers, researchers producing evidence, and health systems framing MCED screening programs. Private payers should be stakeholders of a national MCED policy and equity agenda.

Number Needed to Treat (NNT): Evaluation Tool Used in Health and Wellness Program

As life insurance companies evaluate prospective health and wellness programs, one frequently used tool is the number needed to treat (NNT) calculation. It is helpful to identify what the NNT might be for individual components of the program as well as for the whole program when all components are combined.

Modelled mortality benefits of multi-cancer early detection screening in England

BACKGROUND

Screening programmes utilising blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, which can detect a shared cancer signal from any site in the body with a single, low false-positive rate, could reduce cancer burden through early diagnosis.

METHODS

A natural history ('interception') model of cancer was previously used to characterise potential benefits of MCED screening (based on published performance of an MCED test). We built upon this using a two-population survival model to account for an increased risk of death from cfDNA-detectable cancers relative to cfDNA-non-detectable cancers. We developed another model allowing some cancers to metastasise directly from stage I, bypassing intermediate tumour stages. We used incidence and survival-by-stage data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in England to estimate longer-term benefits to a cohort screened between ages 50-79 years.

RESULTS

Estimated late-stage and mortality reductions were robust to a range of assumptions. With the least favourable dwell (sojourn) time and cfDNA status hazard ratio assumptions, we estimated, among 100,000 screened individuals, 67 (17%) fewer cancer deaths per year corresponding to 2029 fewer deaths in those screened between ages 50-79 years.

CONCLUSION

Realising the potential benefits of MCED tests could substantially reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses and mortality.

Liquid Biopsy in NSCLC: An Investigation with Multiple Clinical Implications

Tissue biopsy is essential for NSCLC diagnosis and treatment management. Over the past decades, liquid biopsy has proven to be a powerful tool in clinical oncology, isolating tumor-derived entities from the blood. Liquid biopsy permits several advantages over tissue biopsy: it is non-invasive, and it should provide a better view of tumor heterogeneity, gene alterations, and clonal evolution. Consequentially, liquid biopsy has gained attention as a cancer biomarker tool, with growing clinical applications in NSCLC. In the era of precision medicine based on molecular typing, non-invasive genotyping methods became increasingly important due to the great number of oncogene drivers and the small tissue specimen often available. In our work, we comprehensively reviewed established and emerging applications of liquid biopsy in NSCLC. We made an excursus on laboratory analysis methods and the applications of liquid biopsy either in early or metastatic NSCLC disease settings. We deeply reviewed current data and future perspectives regarding screening, minimal residual disease, micrometastasis detection, and their implication in adjuvant and neoadjuvant therapy management. Moreover, we reviewed liquid biopsy diagnostic utility in the absence of tissue biopsy and its role in monitoring treatment response and emerging resistance in metastatic NSCLC treated with target therapy and immuno-therapy.

A novel T-cell exhaustion-related feature can accurately predict the prognosis of OC patients

The phenomenon of T Cell exhaustion (TEX) entails a progressive deterioration in the functionality of T cells within the immune system during prolonged conflicts with chronic infections or tumors. In the context of ovarian cancer immunotherapy, the development, and outcome of treatment are closely linked to T-cell exhaustion. Hence, gaining an in-depth understanding of the features of TEX within the immune microenvironment of ovarian cancer is of paramount importance for the management of OC patients. To this end, we leveraged single-cell RNA data from OC to perform clustering and identify T-cell marker genes utilizing the Unified Modal Approximation and Projection (UMAP) approach. Through GSVA and WGCNA in bulk RNA-seq data, we identified 185 TEX-related genes (TEXRGs). Subsequently, we transformed ten machine learning algorithms into 80 combinations and selected the most optimal one to construct TEX-related prognostic features (TEXRPS) based on the mean C-index of the three OC cohorts. In addition, we explored the disparities in clinicopathological features, mutational status, immune cell infiltration, and immunotherapy efficacy between the high-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) groups. Upon the integration of clinicopathological features, TEXRPS displayed robust predictive power. Notably, patients in the LR group exhibited a superior prognosis, higher tumor mutational load (TMB), greater immune cell infiltration abundance, and enhanced sensitivity to immunotherapy. Lastly, we verified the differential expression of the model gene CD44 using qRT-PCR. In conclusion, our study offers a valuable tool to guide clinical management and targeted therapy of OC.

Identification of Exo-miRNAs: A Summary of the Efforts in Translational Studies Involving Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) accounts for about 10-15% of all breast cancers (BC) in the US and its diagnosis is associated with poor survival outcomes. A better understanding of the disease etiology is crucial to identify target treatment options to improve patient outcomes. The role of exo-miRNAs in TNBC has been studied for more than two decades. Although some studies have identified exo-miR candidates in TNBC using clinical samples, consensus regarding exo-miR candidates has not been achieved. The purpose of this review is to gather information regarding exo-miR candidates reported in TNBC translational studies along with the techniques used to isolate and validate the potential targets. The techniques suggested in this review are based on the use of commercially available materials for research and clinical laboratories. We expect that the information included in this review can add additional value to the recent efforts in the development of a liquid biopsy to identify TNBC cases and further improve their survival outcomes.

Shifting the Cancer Screening Paradigm: The Rising Potential of Blood-Based Multi-Cancer Early Detection Tests

Cancer remains a leading cause of death worldwide, partly owing to late detection which entails limited and often ineffective therapeutic options. Most cancers lack validated screening procedures, and the ones available disclose several drawbacks, leading to low patient compliance and unnecessary workups, adding up the costs to healthcare systems. Hence, there is a great need for innovative, accurate, and minimally invasive tools for early cancer detection. In recent years, multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests emerged as a promising screening tool, combining molecular analysis of tumor-related markers present in body fluids with artificial intelligence to simultaneously detect a variety of cancers and further discriminate the underlying cancer type. Herein, we aim to provide a highlight of the variety of strategies currently under development concerning MCED, as well as the major factors which are preventing clinical implementation. Although MCED tests depict great potential for clinical application, large-scale clinical validation studies are still lacking.

Unintrusive multi-cancer detection by circulating cell-free DNA methylation sequencing (THUNDER): development and independent validation studies

BACKGROUND

Early detection of cancer offers the opportunity to identify candidates when curative treatments are achievable. The THUNDER study (THe UNintrusive Detection of EaRly-stage cancers, NCT04820868) aimed to evaluate the performance of ELSA-seq, a previously described cfDNA methylation-based technology, in the early detection and localization of six types of cancers in the colorectum, esophagus, liver, lung, ovary and pancreas.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A customized panel of 161,984 CpG sites was constructed and validated by public and in-house (cancer: n=249; non-cancer: n=288) methylome data, respectively. The cfDNA samples from 1,693 participants (cancer: n=735; non-cancer: n=958) were retrospectively collected to train and validate two multi-cancer detection blood test models (MCDBT-1/2) for different clinical scenarios. The models were validated on a prospective and independent cohort of age-matched 1,010 participants (cancer: n=505; non-cancer: n=505). Simulation using the cancer incidence in China was applied to infer stage-shift and survival benefits to demonstrate the potential utility of the models in the real world.

RESULTS

MCDBT-1 yielded a sensitivity of 69.1% (64.8%‒73.3%), a specificity of 98.9% (97.6%‒99.7%) and tissue origin accuracy of 83.2% (78.7%‒87.1%) in the independent validation set. For early stage (I‒III) patients, the sensitivity of MCDBT-1 was 59.8% (54.4%‒65.0%). In the real-world simulation, MCDBT-1 achieved the sensitivity of 70.6% in detecting the six cancers, thus decreasing late-stage incidence by 38.7%‒46.4%, and increasing 5-year survival rate by 33.1%‒40.4%, respectively. In parallel, MCDBT-2 was generated at a slightly low specificity of 95.1% (92.8%-96.9%) but a higher sensitivity of 75.1% (71.9%-79.8%) than MCDBT-1 for populations at relatively high risk of cancers, and also had ideal performance.

CONCLUSION

In this large-scale clinical validation study, MCDBT-1/2 models showed a high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of predicted origin in detecting six types of cancers.

Liquid biopsies: the future of cancer early detection

Cancer is a worldwide pandemic. The burden it imposes grows steadily on a global scale causing emotional, physical, and financial strains on individuals, families, and health care systems. Despite being the second leading cause of death worldwide, many cancers do not have screening programs and many people with a high risk of developing cancer fail to follow the advised medical screening regime due to the nature of the available screening tests and other challenges with compliance. Moreover, many liquid biopsy strategies being developed for early detection of cancer lack the sensitivity required to detect early-stage cancers. Early detection is key for improved quality of life, survival, and to reduce the financial burden of cancer treatments which are greater at later stage detection. This review examines the current liquid biopsy market, focusing in particular on the strengths and drawbacks of techniques in achieving early cancer detection. We explore the clinical utility of liquid biopsy technologies for the earlier detection of solid cancers, with a focus on how a combination of various spectroscopic and -omic methodologies may pave the way for more efficient cancer diagnostics.

Performance of a targeted methylation-based multi-cancer early detection test by race and ethnicity

Disparities in cancer screening and outcomes based on factors such as sex, socioeconomic status, and race and ethnicity in the United States are well documented. A blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test that detects a shared cancer signal across multiple cancer types and also predicts the cancer signal origin was developed and validated in the Circulating Cell-free Genome Atlas study (CCGA; NCT02889978). CCGA is a prospective, multicenter, case-control, observational study with longitudinal follow-up (overall N = 15,254). In this pre-specified, exploratory, descriptive analysis, test performance was evaluated among racial and ethnic groups. Overall, 4077 participants comprised the independent validation set with confirmed cancer status (cancer: n = 2823; non-cancer: n = 1254). Participants were stratified into the following racial/ethnic groups: Black (non-Hispanic), Hispanic (all races), Other (non-Hispanic), Other/unknown and White (non-Hispanic). Cancer and non-cancer participants were predominantly White (n = 2316, 82.0% and n = 996, 79.4%, respectively). Across groups, specificity for cancer signal detection ranged from 98.1% [n = 103; 95% CI: 93.2-99.5%] to 100% [n = 85; 95% CI: 95.7-100.0%]. The sensitivity for cancer signal detection across groups ranged from 43.9% [n = 57; 95% CI: 31.8-56.7%] to 63.0% [n = 192; 95% CI: 56.0-69.5%] and generally increased with clinical stage. The MCED test had consistently high specificity and similar sensitivity across racial and ethnic groups, though results are limited by sample size for some groups. Results support the broad applicability of this MCED test and clinical implementation on a population scale as a complement to standard screening.

Impact of early detection on cancer curability: A modified Delphi panel study

Expert consensus on the potential benefits of early cancer detection does not exist for most cancer types. We convened 10 practicing oncologists using a RAND/UCLA modified Delphi panel to evaluate which of 20 solid tumors, representing >40 American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)-identified cancer types and 80% of total cancer incidence, would receive potential clinical benefits from early detection. Pre-meeting, experts estimated how long cancers take to progress and rated the current curability and benefit (improvement in curability) of an annual hypothetical multi-cancer screening blood test. Post-meeting, experts rerated all questions. Cancers had varying estimates of the potential benefit of early cancer detection depending on estimates of their curability and progression by stage. Cancers rated as progressing quickly and being curable in earlier stages (stomach, esophagus, lung, urothelial tract, melanoma, ovary, sarcoma, bladder, cervix, breast, colon/rectum, kidney, uterus, anus, head and neck) were estimated to be most likely to benefit from a hypothetical screening blood test. Cancer types rated as progressing quickly but having comparatively lower cure rates in earlier stages (liver/intrahepatic bile duct, gallbladder, pancreas) were estimated to have medium likelihood of benefit from a hypothetical screening blood test. Cancer types rated as progressing more slowly and having higher curability regardless of stage (prostate, thyroid) were estimated to have limited likelihood of benefit from a hypothetical screening blood test. The panel concluded most solid tumors have a likelihood of benefit from early detection. Even among difficult-to-treat cancers (e.g., pancreas, liver/intrahepatic bile duct, gallbladder), early-stage detection was believed to be beneficial. Based on the panel consensus, broad coverage of cancers by screening blood tests would deliver the greatest potential benefits to patients.

Evaluation of cell-free DNA approaches for multi-cancer early detection

In the Circulating Cell-free Genome Atlas (NCT02889978) substudy 1, we evaluate several approaches for a circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA)-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test by defining clinical limit of detection (LOD) based on circulating tumor allele fraction (cTAF), enabling performance comparisons. Among 10 machine-learning classifiers trained on the same samples and independently validated, when evaluated at 98% specificity, those using whole-genome (WG) methylation, single nucleotide variants with paired white blood cell background removal, and combined scores from classifiers evaluated in this study show the highest cancer signal detection sensitivities. Compared with clinical stage and tumor type, cTAF is a more significant predictor of classifier performance and may more closely reflect tumor biology. Clinical LODs mirror relative sensitivities for all approaches. The WG methylation feature best predicts cancer signal origin. WG methylation is the most promising technology for MCED and informs development of a targeted methylation MCED test.

A prognostic signature based on adenosine metabolism related genes for ovarian cancer

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer is one of the most common cause of cancer death in women due to its late diagnosis and susceptibility to drug resistance. Adenosine (ADO) signaling plays a key role in immune activity and tumor progression. In this study, we constructed a signature of ADO metabolism related genes expression in patients with ovarian cancer.

METHODS

A total of 372 ovarian cancer patients from TCGA was used as training set and 1,137 patients from six GEO datasets were as validation set. The gene expression and drug response inhibitory concentration values for ovarian cancer cell line from GDSC were used for drug sensitivity analysis. The non-negative matrix factorization algorithm and ssGSVA were used to construct the ADO score.

RESULTS

Patients with high ADO score had shorter overall survival (OS) than those with low ADO score in both training set (HR = 1.42, 95% CI, 1.06-1.88) and validation sets (pooled HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.02-1.51). In GSEA analysis, genes in ATP synthesis related pathways were enriched in the low ADO score group (adjusted P value = 0.02). Further, we observed that the high ADO score group had significantly higher levels of most cancer hallmark signatures (all adjusted P values < 0.01) and T cell dysfunction and exclusion signatures than the low ADO score group (all adjusted P values < 0.001). Patients with lower ADO score tended to be sensitive to common drugs including Olaparib and Paclitaxel (adjusted P values = 0.05 and 0.04, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, the established ADO signature could be used as a prognostic biomarker to stratify ovarian cancer patients and had the potential to guide the drug exploitation and personalized therapy selection.

The Potential Value-Based Price of a Multi-Cancer Early Detection Genomic Blood Test to Complement Current Single Cancer Screening in the USA

BACKGROUND

Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) testing could increase detection of cancer at early stages, when survival outcomes are better and treatment costs are lower, but is expected to increase screening costs. This study modeled an MCED test for 19 solid cancers in a US population and estimated the potential value-based price (the maximum price to meet a given willingness to pay) of the MCED test plus current single cancer screening (usual care) compared to usual care alone from a third-party payer perspective over a lifetime horizon.

METHODS

A hybrid cohort-level state-transition and decision-tree model was developed to estimate the clinical and economic outcomes of annual MCED testing between age 50 and 79 years. The impact on time and stage of diagnosis was computed using an interception modeling approach, with the consequences of cancer modeled based on stage at diagnosis. The model parameters were mainly sourced from the literature, including a published case-control study to inform MCED test performance. All costs were inflated to 2021 US dollars.

RESULTS

Multi-cancer early detection testing shifted cancer diagnoses to earlier stages, with a 53% reduction in stage IV cancer diagnoses, resulting in longer overall survival compared with usual care. Addition of MCED decreased per cancer treatment costs by $5421 and resulted in a gain of 0.13 and 0.38 quality-adjusted life-years across all individuals in the screening program and those diagnosed with cancer, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the potential value-based price of an MCED test was estimated at $1196. The projected survival of individuals diagnosed with cancer and the number of cancers detected at an earlier stage by MCED had the greatest impact on outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

An MCED test with high specificity would potentially improve long-term health outcomes and reduce cancer treatment costs, resulting in a value-based price of $1196 at a $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year willingness-to-pay threshold.

Cell-Free DNA-Based Multi-Cancer Early Detection Test in an Asymptomatic Screening Population (NHS-Galleri): Design of a Pragmatic, Prospective Randomised Controlled Trial

We report the design of the NHS-Galleri trial (ISRCTN91431511), aiming to establish whether a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test that screens asymptomatic individuals for cancer can reduce late-stage cancer incidence. This randomised controlled trial has invited approximately 1.5 million persons and enrolled over 140,000 from the general population of England (50-77 years; ≥3 years without cancer diagnosis or treatment; not undergoing investigation for suspected cancer). Blood is being collected at up to three annual visits. Following baseline blood collection, participants are randomised 1:1 to the intervention (blood tested by MCED test) or control (blood stored) arm. Only participants in the intervention arm with a cancer signal detected have results returned and are referred for urgent investigations and potential treatment. Remaining participants in both arms stay blinded and return for their next visit. Participants are encouraged to continue other NHS cancer screening programmes and seek help for new or unusual symptoms. The primary objective is to demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in the incidence rate of stage III and IV cancers diagnosed in the intervention versus control arm 3-4 years after randomisation. NHS-Galleri will help determine the clinical utility of population screening with an MCED test.

Circulating Tumor DNA Allele Fraction: A Candidate Biological Signal for Multicancer Early Detection Tests to Assess the Clinical Significance of Cancers

Current imaging-based cancer screening approaches provide useful but limited prognostic information. Complementary to existing screening tests, cell-free DNA-based multicancer early detection (MCED) tests account for cancer biology [manifested through circulating tumor allele fraction (cTAF)], which could inform prognosis and help assess the cancer's clinical significance. This review discusses the factors affecting circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) levels and cTAF, and their correlation with the cancer's clinical significance. Furthermore, it discusses the influence of cTAF on MCED test performance, which could help inform prognosis. Clinically significant cancers show higher ctDNA levels quantified by cTAF than indolent phenotype cancers within each stage. This is because more frequent mitosis and cell death combined with increased trafficking of cell-free DNA into circulation leads to greater vascularization and depth of tumor invasion. cTAF has been correlated with biomarkers for cancer aggressiveness and overall survival; cancers with lower cTAF had better survival when compared with cancers as determined by the higher cTAF and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-based survival for that cancer type at each stage. MCED-detected cancers in case-control studies had comparable survival to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-based survival at each stage. Because many MCED tests use ctDNA as an analyte, cTAF could provide a common metric to compare performance. The prognostic value of cTAF may allow MCED tests to preferentially detect clinically significant cancers at early stages when outcomes are favorable and this may avoid overdiagnosis.

C. elegans as a Powerful Tool for Cancer Screening

Regular cancer screening is critical for early cancer detection. Cancer screening tends to be burdensome, invasive, and expensive, especially for a comprehensive multi-organ check. Improving the rate and effectiveness of routine cancer screenings remain a challenge in health care. Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) is an exciting concept and a potentially effective solution for addressing current issues with routine cancer screening. In recent years, several technologies have matured for MCED, such as identifying cell-free tumor DNA in blood or using organisms such as Caenorhabditis elegans as a tool for early cancer detection. In Japan, N-NOSE is a commercially available multi-cancer detection test based on the chemotaxis of C. elegans using a urine sample showing 87.5% sensitivity and 90.2% specificity. In this review, we focus on using C. elegans as a powerful biosensor for universal cancer screening. We review N-NOSE clinical research results, spotlighting it as an effective primary cancer screening test.

Multicancer Early detection Panels (MCEDs) in the Primary Care Setting

Multicancer early detection panels have recently become available to patients with a provider's prescription and an out-of-pocket fee. Beyond theoretical modeling, little is known about how these assays will impact primary care practices despite a high likelihood that primary care providers (PCPs) will be ordering these tests with some frequency. In particular, there are concerns about patient counseling, costs, frequency of testing, patient anxiety, and subsequent testing for a positive result. This review aims to appraise the current literature and provide a framework that PCPs can use to discuss these tests with patients and streamline their ordering, interpretation, and overall use into everyday practice.

The Early Detection of Breast Cancer Using Liquid Biopsies: Model Estimates of the Benefits, Harms, and Costs

Simple Summary

Breast cancer screening is associated with benefits, such as mortality reduction and improved quality of life, and harms, such as false-positive results, overdiagnoses, and costs. Novel screen tests could be considered to reduce the harms and increase the benefits of screening. Liquid biopsies have been proposed as a novel method for the early detection of breast cancer. However, studies show that liquid biopsies based on cell-free DNA have a low sensitivity for early-stage breast cancer. Using the microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia, we model the benefits, harms, and costs of the early detection of breast cancer using liquid biopsies for varying levels of liquid biopsy sensitivity and specificity. We found that liquid biopsies are unlikely to be an alternative to digital mammography, given the test performance based on a CCGA substudy. When liquid biopsies are unable to detect the precursor lesion of breast cancer—ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)—they need to be able to detect small, early-stage tumors, with high specificity, at low costs in order to be an alternative to digital mammography. We estimated a maximum liquid biopsy price of USD 187, which is substantially lower than currently listed prices.

Abstract

Breast cancer screening is associated with harms, such as false-positives and overdiagnoses, and, thus, novel screen tests can be considered. Liquid biopsies have been proposed as a novel method for the early detection of cancer, but low cell-free DNA tumor fraction might pose a problem for the use in population screening. Using breast cancer microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia, we estimated the outcomes of using liquid biopsies in breast cancer screening in women aged 50 to 74 in the United States. For varying combinations of test sensitivity and specificity, we quantify the impact of the use of liquid biopsies on the harms and benefits of screening, and we estimate the maximum liquid biopsy price for cost-effective implementation in breast cancer screening at a cost-effectiveness threshold of USD 50,000. We investigate under what conditions liquid biopsies could be a suitable alternative to digital mammography and compare these conditions to a CCGA substudy. Outcomes were compared to digital mammography screening, and include mortality reduction, overdiagnoses, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the maximum price of a liquid biopsy for cost-effective implementation. When liquid biopsies are unable to detect DCIS, a large proportion of overdiagnosed cases is prevented but overall breast cancer mortality reduction and quality of life are lower, and costs are higher compared to digital mammography screening. Liquid biopsies prices should be restricted to USD 187 per liquid biopsy depending on test performance. Overall, liquid biopsies that are unable to detect ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) need to be able to detect small, early-stage tumors, with high specificity, at low costs in order to be an alternative to digital mammography. Liquid biopsies might be more suitable as an addition to digital mammography than as an alternative.

The Promise of Multicancer Early Detection. Comment on Pons-Belda et al. Can Circulating Tumor DNA Support a Successful Screening Test for Early Cancer Detection? The Grail Paradigm. Diagnostics 2021, 11, 2171

Multicancer Early Detection (MCED) represents a new and exciting paradigm for the early detection of cancer, which is the leading cause of death worldwide. Current screening tests, recommended for only five cancer types (breast, lung, colon, cervical, and prostate), are limited by a lack of complete adherence to guideline-based use and by the fact that they have cumulative high false positive rates. MCED tests agnostically detect cancer signals in the blood with good sensitivity and low false positive rates, can predict the cancer site of origin with high accuracy, can detect highly lethal cancers that have no current screening tests, and promise to improve cancer screening by improving efficiency and reducing the overall number needed to screen. Herein we outline this promise and clarify several published misconceptions about this field.

Clinical validation of a next-generation sequencing-based multi-cancer early detection "liquid biopsy" blood test in over 1,000 dogs using an independent testing set: The CANcer Detection in Dogs (CANDiD) study

Cancer is the leading cause of death in dogs, yet there are no established screening paradigms for early detection. Liquid biopsy methods that interrogate cancer-derived genomic alterations in cell-free DNA in blood are being adopted for multi-cancer early detection in human medicine and are now available for veterinary use. The CANcer Detection in Dogs (CANDiD) study is an international, multi-center clinical study designed to validate the performance of a novel multi-cancer early detection “liquid biopsy” test developed for noninvasive detection and characterization of cancer in dogs using next-generation sequencing (NGS) of blood-derived DNA; study results are reported here. In total, 1,358 cancer-diagnosed and presumably cancer-free dogs were enrolled in the study, representing the range of breeds, weights, ages, and cancer types seen in routine clinical practice; 1,100 subjects met inclusion criteria for analysis and were used in the validation of the test. Overall, the liquid biopsy test demonstrated a 54.7% (95% CI: 49.3–60.0%) sensitivity and a 98.5% (95% CI: 97.0–99.3%) specificity. For three of the most aggressive canine cancers (lymphoma, hemangiosarcoma, osteosarcoma), the detection rate was 85.4% (95% CI: 78.4–90.9%); and for eight of the most common canine cancers (lymphoma, hemangiosarcoma, osteosarcoma, soft tissue sarcoma, mast cell tumor, mammary gland carcinoma, anal sac adenocarcinoma, malignant melanoma), the detection rate was 61.9% (95% CI: 55.3–68.1%). The test detected cancer signal in patients representing 30 distinct cancer types and provided a Cancer Signal Origin prediction for a subset of patients with hematological malignancies. Furthermore, the test accurately detected cancer signal in four presumably cancer-free subjects before the onset of clinical signs, further supporting the utility of liquid biopsy as an early detection test. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that NGS-based liquid biopsy can offer a novel option for noninvasive multi-cancer detection in dogs.