Towards understanding the cause of stroke in young adults utilising a new stroke classification system (A-S-C-O)

Stroke aetiological classification reliability and effect on trial sample size: systematic review, meta-analysis and statistical modelling

Background

Inter-observer variability in stroke aetiological classification may have an effect on trial power and estimation of treatment effect. We modelled the effect of misclassification on required sample size in a hypothetical cardioembolic (CE) stroke trial.

Methods

We performed a systematic review to quantify the reliability (inter-observer variability) of various stroke aetiological classification systems. We then modelled the effect of this misclassification in a hypothetical trial of anticoagulant in CE stroke contaminated by patients with non-cardioembolic (non-CE) stroke aetiology. Rates of misclassification were based on the summary reliability estimates from our systematic review. We randomly sampled data from previous acute trials in CE and non-CE participants, using the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive. We used bootstrapping to model the effect of varying misclassification rates on sample size required to detect a between-group treatment effect across 5000 permutations. We described outcomes in terms of survival and stroke recurrence censored at 90 days.

Results

From 4655 titles, we found 14 articles describing three stroke classification systems. The inter-observer reliability of the classification systems varied from ‘fair’ to ‘very good’ and suggested misclassification rates of 5% and 20% for our modelling. The hypothetical trial, with 80% power and alpha 0.05, was able to show a difference in survival between anticoagulant and antiplatelet in CE with a sample size of 198 in both trial arms. Contamination of both arms with 5% misclassified participants inflated the required sample size to 237 and with 20% misclassification inflated the required sample size to 352, for equivalent trial power. For an outcome of stroke recurrence using the same data, base-case estimated sample size for 80% power and alpha 0.05 was n = 502 in each arm, increasing to 605 at 5% contamination and 973 at 20% contamination.

Conclusions

Stroke aetiological classification systems suffer from inter-observer variability, and the resulting misclassification may limit trial power.

Trial registration

Protocol available at reviewregistry540.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13063-019-3222-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Hypercoagulability and the risk of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke in young women

BACKGROUND

Myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke (IS) are acute forms of arterial thrombosis and share some, but not all, risk factors, indicating different pathophysiological mechanisms.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to determine if hypercoagulability has a differential effect on the risk of MI and IS.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reviewed the results from the Risk of Arterial Thrombosis in Relation to Oral Contraceptives study, a population-based case-control study involving young women (< 50 years) with MI, non-cardioembolic IS and healthy controls. From these data, relative odds ratios (ORIS /ORMI ) and their corresponding confidence intervals for all prothrombotic factors that were studied in both subgroups were calculated.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine prothrombotic risk factors were identified as measures of hypercoagulability. Twenty-two of these risk factors (21/29, 72%) had a relative odds ratios > 1; for 12 (41%), it was > 2; and for 5 (17%), it was > 2.75. The five risk factors with the largest differences in associations were high levels of activated factor XI (FXI) and FXII, kallikrein, the presence of lupus anticoagulans, and a genetic variation in the FXIII gene.

CONCLUSION

In young women, prothrombotic factors are associated more with the risk of IS than with MI risk, suggesting a different role of hypercoagulability in the mechanism leading to these two diseases.

Hypercoagulability Is a Stronger Risk Factor for Ischaemic Stroke than for Myocardial Infarction: A Systematic Review

Background and Purpose

Hypercoagulability increases the risk of arterial thrombosis; however, this effect may differ between various manifestations of arterial disease.

Methods

In this study, we compared the effect of coagulation factors as measures of hypercoagulability on the risk of ischaemic stroke (IS) and myocardial infarction (MI) by performing a systematic review of the literature. The effect of a risk factor on IS (relative risk for IS, RR_IS) was compared with the effect on MI (RR_MI) by calculating their ratio (RRR = RR_IS/RR_MI). A relevant differential effect was considered when RRR was >1+ its own standard error (SE) or <1−SE.

Results

We identified 70 publications, describing results from 31 study populations, accounting for 351 markers of hypercoagulability. The majority (203/351, 58%) had an RRR greater than 1. A larger effect on IS risk than MI risk (RRE>1+1SE) was found in 49/343 (14%) markers. Of these, 18/49 (37%) had an RRR greater than 1+2SE. On the opposite side, a larger effect on MI risk (RRR<1-1SE) was found in only 17/343 (5%) markers.

Conclusions

These results suggest that hypercoagulability has a more pronounced effect on the risk of IS than that of MI.

Incidence of atrial fibrillation detected by implantable loop recorders in unexplained stroke

OBJECTIVES

The usefulness of the implantable loop recorder (ILR) with improved atrial fibrillation (AF) detection capability (Reveal XT) and the factors associated with AF in the setting of unexplained stroke were investigated.

METHODS

A cohort study is reported of 51 patients in whom ILRs were implanted for the investigation of ischemic stroke for which no cause had been found (cryptogenic) following appropriate vascular and cardiac imaging and at least 24 hours of cardiac rhythm monitoring.

RESULTS

The patients were aged from 17 to 73 (median 52) years. Of the 30 patients with a shunt investigation, 22 had a patent foramen ovale (73.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 56.5%-90.1%). AF was identified in 13 (25.5%; 95% CI 13.1%-37.9%) cases. AF was associated with increasing age (p = 0.018), interatrial conduction block (p = 0.02), left atrial volume (p = 0.025), and the occurrence of atrial premature contractions on preceding external monitoring (p = 0.004). The median (range) of monitoring prior to AF detection was 48 (0-154) days.

CONCLUSION

In patients with unexplained stroke, AF was detected by ILR in 25.5%. Predictors of AF were identified, which may help to target investigations. ILRs may have a central role in the future in the investigation of patients with unexplained stroke.

Long-term survival of ischemic cerebrovascular disease in the acute inflammatory stroke study, a hospital-based cohort described by TOAST and ASCO

BACKGROUND

Ischemic cerebrovascular disease (ICVD) comprises multiple etiological phenotypes that share common clinical characteristics. Etiological classification of patients with ICVD is of major clinical interest to achieve optimal medical treatment and predict prognosis. The TOAST classification system has been widely used to describe stroke etiology but provides restricted phenotypic homogeneity within groups. The ASCO classification system has introduced a new approach in phenotypic classification, and aims to describe clinical characteristics without merging concurrent comorbidities. Inflammatory processes have been suggested to mediate stroke etiology and pathology. The Acute Inflammatory Stroke Study (AISS), a hospital-based cohort, is here introduced and described by TOAST and ASCO classification systems. The aim of this first analysis of AISS was to investigate long-term mortality in relation to ischemic stroke subtypes, and clinical and biochemical markers.

METHODS

AISS consecutively follows patients on 6 occasions up to 1 year after stroke onset. Complete workup according to ASCO comprised CT or MRI of the head, ECG, duplex of the extracranial arteries or CT/MR angiography and ultrasound of the heart. Level 2 evidence was required in each domain to obtain a comparable system to TOAST (ASCO2). Clinical and biochemical characteristics and mortality rates were documented and compared by the two classification systems.

RESULTS

Of 142 patients consecutively evaluated and recruited in the study, a total of 101 ICVD patients (ischemic stroke, n = 84; transient ischemic attack, n = 17) were included in the final analysis. Agreement between ASCO2 and TOAST was very good. During the mean observation period of 28 months, 26 patients died. The 1- and 4-year mortality rates were 0 and 4% for large artery atherosclerosis (LAA); 23 and 36% for cardioembolism (CE); 0% for small artery occlusion (SAO); 63 and 100% for the subtype with unknown etiology due to incomplete workup (Unknown), and 12 and 29% for the cryptogenic subtype. As for the ASCO2 groups, the 1- and 4-year mortality rates were 0 and 6% in LAA, 25 and 36% in CE, 0% in SAO, 0 and 14% in LAA + CE, 0% in SAO + CE, 16 and 36% in the subgroup with undetermined etiology despite complete workup, and 56 and 100% in Unknown. Regression analysis showed that age, white blood cell count, fibrinogen and bilirubin, but not etiological subgroup, were independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that clinical and biochemical markers may differentiate phenotypically homogeneous etiological subtypes and predict long-term mortality. Further studies with larger patient numbers are needed to investigate possible causative mechanisms.