A predictive microsimulation model to estimate the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol dependence

“Doctor, Can I Drink an Alcohol-Free Beer?” Low-Alcohol and Alcohol-Free Drinks in People with Heavy Drinking or Alcohol Use Disorders: Systematic Review of the Literature

No- and low-alcohol drinks (NoLo) have been proposed as a potential way forward for the reduction in the alcohol burden of disease. So far, there is scarce synthesized evidence on the effects of these products on people with alcohol use disorder (AUD), or with a heavy or high-risk drinking pattern. The aim of the present study is to systematically review the evidence of the use of NoLo drinks in these populations. A total of 4045 records were screened and 10 studies were included in the review. Craving and desire to drink have been found to increase after the consumption of NoLo drinks in patients with AUD. The increase in craving correlates with the severity of alcohol dependence. In addition, in this population, alcohol-related cues might trigger physiological responses similar to those experienced when using alcohol. Furthermore, as mentioned, in some of the studies, consumption was shown to increase as the %ABV or verbal descriptors indicate lower alcohol. Last, according to the epidemiological data, heavy drinkers tend to use NoLo drinks on top of their usual alcohol consumption rather than as part of regular drinking patterns. Further studies should be conducted in people with AUD or people with a high-risk drinking pattern to provide new insight to guide clinicians, patients, and other stakeholders to make evidence-based informed decisions.

Understanding resource utilization and mortality in COPD to support policy making: A microsimulation study

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) poses a significant but heterogeneous burden to individuals and healthcare systems. Policymakers develop targeted policies to minimize this burden but need personalized tools to evaluate novel interventions and target them to subpopulations most likely to benefit. We developed a platform to identify subgroups that are at increased risk of emergency department visits, hospitalizations and mortality and to provide stratified patient input in economic evaluations of COPD interventions. We relied on administrative and survey data from Ontario, Canada and applied a combination of microsimulation and multi-state modeling methods. We illustrated the functionality of the platform by quantifying outcomes across smoking status (current, former, never smokers) and by estimating the effect of smoking cessation on resource use and survival, by comparing outcomes of hypothetical cohorts of smokers who quit at diagnosis and smokers that continued to smoke post diagnosis. The cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality was 37.9% (95% CI: 34.9, 41.4) for never smokers, 34.7% (95% CI: 32.1, 36.9) for current smokers, and 46.4% (95% CI: 43.6, 49.0) for former smokers, at 14 years. Over 14 years, smokers who did not quit at diagnosis had 16.3% (95% CI: 9.6, 38.4%) more COPD-related emergency department visits than smokers who quit at diagnosis. In summary, we combined methods from clinical and economic modeling to create a novel tool that policymakers and health economists can use to inform future COPD policy decisions and quantify the effect of modifying COPD risk factors on resource utilization and morality.

Drinking Risk Level Reductions Associated with Improvements in Physical Health and Quality of Life Among Individuals with Alcohol Use Disorder

BACKGROUND

Abstinence and no heavy drinking days are currently the only Food and Drug Administration-approved end points in clinical trials for alcohol use disorder (AUD). Many individuals who fail to meet these criteria may substantially reduce their drinking during treatment, and most individuals with AUD prefer drinking reduction goals. One- and two-level reductions in World Health Organization (WHO) drinking risk levels have been proposed as alternative end points that reflect reduced drinking and are associated with reductions in drinking consequences, improvements in mental health, and reduced risk of developing alcohol dependence. The current study examined the association between WHO drinking risk level reductions and improvements in physical health and quality of life in a sample of individuals with alcohol dependence.

METHODS

Secondary data analysis of individuals with alcohol dependence (n = 1,142) enrolled in the longitudinal, prospective COMBINE study, a multi site randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial, examining the association between reductions in WHO drinking risk levels and change in blood pressure, liver enzyme levels, and self-reported quality of life following treatment for alcohol dependence.

RESULTS

One- and two-level reductions in WHO drinking risk level during treatment were associated with significant reductions in systolic blood pressure (p < 0.001), improvements in liver enzyme levels (all p < 0.01), and significantly better quality of life (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

One- and two-level reductions in WHO drinking risk levels predicted significant improvements in markers of physical health and quality of life, suggesting that the WHO drinking risk level reduction could be a meaningful surrogate marker of improvements in how a person "feels and functions" following treatment for alcohol dependence. The WHO drinking risk levels could be useful in medical practice for identifying drinking reduction targets that correspond with clinically significant improvements in health and quality of life.

Alcohol dependence and very high risk level of alcohol consumption: a life-threatening and debilitating disease

Women and men with alcohol dependence and very high risk drinking level (VHRDL; defined as drinking >60 or 100 g of ethanol per day, respectively) experience severe health consequences; however, data on the number of these individuals and their health risks are limited. This study estimated (1) the prevalence of VHRDL in 13 European Union (EU) countries among people 15-65 years of age, (2) the risk of disease and injury occurrence associated with VHRDL, (3) the proportion of deaths in nine EU countries attributable to VHRDL and (4) the life expectancy of people in France with VHRDL. Prevalence estimates of VHRDL were based on data obtained from clinical trials and the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. The risk of disease and injury occurrence was estimated using microsimulations. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were estimated using a Levin-based methodology. The estimated prevalence of VHRDL in the 13 EU countries examined was 0.74-0.85 percent, with a disease and injury occurrence risk of 13.5 per 100 people with VHRDL per year. For the nine EU countries examined, VHRDL caused 53.6 percent of all liver cirrhosis, 43.8 percent of all pancreatitis and 41.1 percent of oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers (all other PAFs were below 30 percent). Applying these PAFs to French mortality data resulted in a life expectancy of 47-61 years for people with VHRDL-21-35 years less than the general population. These results indicate that the health burdens of VHRDL are potentially large, and interventions targeting VHRDL should be considered when formulating public health policies.

Weak evidence on nalmefene creates dilemmas for clinicians and poses questions for regulators and researchers

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Nalmefene has been approved in Europe for the treatment of alcohol dependence and subsequently recommended by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). This study examines critically the evidence base underpinning both decisions and the issues arising.

METHODS

Published studies of nalmefene were identified through a systematic search, with documents from the European Medicines Agency, the NICE appraisal and public clinical trial registries also examined to identify methodological issues.

RESULTS

Efficacy data used to support the licensing of nalmefene suffer from risk of bias due to lack of specification of a priori outcome measures and sensitivity analyses, use of post-hoc sample refinement and the use of inappropriate comparators. Despite this, evidence for the efficacy of nalmefene in reducing alcohol consumption in those with alcohol dependence is, at best, modest, and of uncertain significance to individual patients. The relevance of existing trial data to routine primary care practice is doubtful.

CONCLUSIONS

Problems with the registration, design, analysis and reporting of clinical trials of nalmefene did not prevent it being licensed and recommended for treating alcohol dependence. This creates dilemmas for primary care clinicians and commissioning organisations where nalmefene has been heavily promoted, and poses wider questions about the effectiveness of the medicines regulation system and how to develop the alcohol treatment evidence base.

A Trial-Based Predictive Microsimulation Assessing the Public Health Benefits of Nalmefene and Psychosocial Support for the Reduction of Alcohol Consumption in Alcohol Dependence

BACKGROUND

Alcohol dependence causes considerable harm to patients. Treatment with nalmefene, aiming to reduce consumption rather than maintain complete abstinence, has been licensed based on trials demonstrating a reduction in total alcohol consumption and heavy drinking days. Relating these trial outcomes to harmful events avoided is important to demonstrate the clinical relevance of nalmefene treatment.

METHODS

A predictive microsimulation model was developed to compare nalmefene plus brief psychosocial intervention (BRENDA) versus placebo plus BRENDA for the treatment of patients with alcohol dependence and a high or very high drinking risk level based on three pooled clinical trials. The model simulated patterns and level of alcohol consumption, day-by-day, for 12 months, to estimate the occurrence of alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths; assessing the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption with treatment.

RESULTS

The microsimulation model predicted that, in a cohort of 100,000 patients, 971 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 904-1038) alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries and 133 (95 % CI 117-150) deaths would be avoided with nalmefene versus placebo. This level of benefit has been considered clinically relevant by the European Medicines Agency.

CONCLUSIONS

This microsimulation model supports the clinical relevance of the reduction in alcohol consumption, and has estimated the extent of the public health benefit of treatment with nalmefene in patients with alcohol dependence and a high or very high drinking risk level.

Modelling the consequences of a reduction in alcohol consumption among patients with alcohol dependence based on real-life observational data

BACKGROUND

Most available pharmacotherapies for alcohol-dependent patients target abstinence; however, reduced alcohol consumption may be a more realistic goal. Using randomized clinical trial (RCT) data, a previous microsimulation model evaluated the clinical relevance of reduced consumption in terms of avoided alcohol-attributable events. Using real-life observational data, the current analysis aimed to adapt the model and confirm previous findings about the clinical relevance of reduced alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Based on the prospective observational CONTROL study, evaluating daily alcohol consumption among alcohol-dependent patients, the model predicted the probability of drinking any alcohol during a given day. Predicted daily alcohol consumption was simulated in a hypothetical sample of 200,000 patients observed over a year. Individual total alcohol consumption (TAC) and number of heavy drinking days (HDD) were derived. Using published risk equations, probabilities of alcohol-attributable adverse health events (e.g., hospitalizations or death) corresponding to simulated consumptions were computed, and aggregated for categories of patients defined by HDDs and TAC (expressed per 100,000 patient-years). Sensitivity analyses tested model robustness.

RESULTS

Shifting from >220 HDDs per year to 120-140 HDDs and shifting from 36,000-39,000 g TAC per year (120-130 g/day) to 15,000-18,000 g TAC per year (50-60 g/day) impacted substantially on the incidence of events (14,588 and 6148 events avoided per 100,000 patient-years, respectively). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This study corroborates the previous microsimulation modeling approach and, using real-life data, confirms RCT-based findings that reduced alcohol consumption is a relevant objective for consideration in alcohol dependence management to improve public health.

[Alcohol use disorders: current approaches to diagnosis and treatment]

Alcohol abuse and alcoholism are the leading causes of disability, health worsening and increased mortality. Diagnosis of alcohol use disorders is based on the formal criteria of ICD-10 and DSM-V. Sobriety-oriented therapy has extremely low efficiency. The difficulties of therapy are compounded by the fact that less than 10% patients with alcohol use disorder participate in treatment programs. Serious expectations in addressing unsatisfactory efficiency of alcoholism treatment are associated with WHO reducing alcohol consumption strategy. Nalmefene is the first and still only drug registered as a medicine for reducing alcohol use. Recent studies show that the decrease of alcohol consumption using nalmefene creates opportunities for significant lessening of alcohol-related morbidity, injuries and deaths.

Clinical relevance of nalmefene versus placebo in alcohol treatment: reduction in mortality risk

Reduction of long-term mortality risk, an important clinical outcome for people in alcohol dependence treatment, can rarely be established in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We calculated the reduction in all-cause mortality risk using data from short-term (6 and 12 months) double-blind RCTs comparing as-needed nalmefene treatment to placebo, and mortality risks from meta-analyses on all-cause-mortality risk by reduction of drinking in people with alcohol dependence. A reduction in drinking in the RCTs was defined by shifts in drinking risk levels established by the European Medicines Agency. Results showed that the reduction of drinking in the nalmefene group was associated with a reduction in mortality risk by 8% (95% CI: 2%, 13%) when compared to the placebo group. Sensitivity analyses confirmed a significant effect. Thus comparing the difference between nalmefene and placebo in reduction in drinking levels with results on all-cause mortality risk from meta-analyses indicated a clinically relevant reduction in mortality risk. Given the high mortality risk of people with alcohol dependence, abstinence or a reduction in drinking have been shown to reduce mortality risk and should be considered treatment goals.

Risk of All-Cause Mortality in Alcohol-Dependent Individuals: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Alcohol dependence (AD) carries a high mortality burden, which may be mitigated by reduced alcohol consumption. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating the risk of all-cause mortality in alcohol-dependent subjects.

Methods

MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, Embase and PsycINFO were searched from database conception through 26th June 2014. Eligible studies reported all-cause mortality in both alcohol-dependent subjects and a comparator population of interest. Two individuals independently reviewed studies. Of 4540 records identified, 39 observational studies were included in meta-analyses.

Findings

We identified a significant increase in mortality for alcohol-dependent subjects compared with the general population (27 studies; relative risk [RR] = 3.45; 95% CI [2.96, 4.02]; p < 0.0001). The mortality increase was also significant compared to subjects qualifying for a diagnosis of alcohol abuse or subjects without alcohol use disorders (AUDs). Alcohol-dependent subjects continuing to drink heavily had significantly greater mortality than alcohol-dependent subjects who reduced alcohol intake, even if abstainers were excluded (p < 0.05).

Interpretation

AD was found to significantly increase an individual's risk of all-cause mortality. While abstinence in alcohol-dependent subjects led to greater mortality reduction than non-abstinence, this study suggests that alcohol-dependent subjects can significantly reduce their mortality risk by reducing alcohol consumption.

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A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to investigate mortality risk in alcohol-dependent individuals.

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Alcohol dependence was associated with significantly higher mortality risk vs the general population, and vs alcohol abuse.

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Alcohol-dependent people with reduced alcohol consumption lowered their mortality risk, even if abstinence was not reached.

Individuals with alcohol dependence have a high risk of disease, disability or death. Treatment has traditionally focused on promoting abstinence, although some alcohol-dependent individuals would prefer to continue drinking in a controlled manner. By statistically combining results from previously published studies identified in a systematic literature review, we have shown that mortality among alcohol-dependent individuals is three to four times higher than in the general population. We have also found that individuals with alcohol dependence can reduce their risk of death by reducing alcohol consumption, even if they do not achieve abstinence.