Age-Period-Cohort Modeling of Multiple Sclerosis Incidence Rates in Kuwait: 1980-2014

Global, regional, and national burden of multiple sclerosis from 1990 to 2019: Findings of global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global rising prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been reported during the past decades. However, details regarding the evolution of MS burden have not been fully studied. This study aimed to investigate the global, regional, and national burden and temporal trends in MS incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019 using the age-period-cohort analysis.

METHODS

We performed a secondary comprehensive analysis of incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MS by calculating the estimated annual percentage change from 1990 to 2019 obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The independent age, period, and birth cohort effects were evaluated by an age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 59,345 incident MS cases and 22,439 MS deaths worldwide. The global number of incidences, deaths, and DALYs of MS followed an upward trend, whereas the age-standardized rates (ASR) slightly declined from 1990 to 2019. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions had the highest ASR of incidences, deaths, and DALYs in 2019, while the rate of deaths and DALYs in medium SDI regions are the lowest. Six regions which include high-income North America, Western Europe, Australasia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe had higher ASR of incidences, deaths, and DALYs than other regions in 2019. The age effect showed that the relative risks (RRs) of incidence and DALYs reached the peak at ages 30-39 and 50-59, respectively. The period effect showed that the RRs of deaths and DALYs increased with the period. The cohort effect showed that the later cohort has lower RRs of deaths and DALYs than the early cohort.

CONCLUSION

The global cases of incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MS have all increased, whereas ASR has declined, with different trends in different regions. High SDI regions such as European countries have a substantial burden of MS. There are significant age effects for incidence, deaths, and DALYs of MS globally, and period effects and cohort effects for deaths and DALYs.

Association between Appendectomy and Demyelinating Disorders in Subjects 40 Years and Older

Background

The association between appendectomy and multiple sclerosis (MS) is unknown. In this study, we explored the association between appendectomy and MS and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD).

Patients and Methods

MS and NMOSD patients older than 40 were identified from neurology records from hospitals in Malaysia. The diagnoses were based on the Revised McDonald (2010) and Wingerchuk (2015) criteria. Controls were sampled from Malaysia's normal population. Individuals were interviewed telephonically or face-to-face. The age inclusion criterion (over 40) differentiated high or low lifetime risk of appendicitis, as appendicitis incidence is rare after 40.

Results

49 MS, 71 NMOSD, and 880 controls met the inclusion criteria. Seventy-two individuals (9 MS, 4 NMOSD, 59 control) had undergone appendectomy. Appendectomy rates were 18.37% in the MS group (95% CI 7.5-29.2%), 5.6% in the NMOSD group (0.3%, 11%), and 6.7% among controls (5.1%, 8.4%), (MS vs NMOSD P = 0.036, MS vs controls P = 0.007). Binary regression analysis showed that MS was an independent risk factor for appendectomy (OR 2.938, 95% CI 1.302, 6.633, P = 0.009). NMOSD showed no association with appendectomy.

Conclusion

MS is positively associated with appendectomy, unlike ulcerative colitis, which is negatively associated. We hypothesize that there is a commonality in the microflora in persons who have had these two illnesses.