Meta-Analysis of Prognostic Factors for Recurrence of Resected Well-Differentiated Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

Disease-free survival after pancreatectomy for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: A 17-year single-center experience of 223 patients

BACKGROUND

Metastasis or recurrence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) after pancreatectomy is an important source of postsurgical morbidity. This study aimed to define disease-free survival (DFS) in this population.

METHODS

Patients who underwent pancreatectomy for pNETs between January 2005 and January 2022 were included. Clinicopathologic and survival data were collected, and the primary endpoint was DFS. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling were performed.

RESULTS

Of the 223 patients, 144 (65%) distal/subtotal/partial pancreatectomies, 71 (32%) pancreaticoduodenectomies, 6 (3%) total pancreatectomies, and 2 (1%) enucleations were performed. Of the 223 patients, 45 (20%) experienced disease recurrence or metastasis after index pancreatectomy during the 17 years of the study. Nonfunctional pNETs (162 [73%]) were more common than hormonally functional subtypes. The 2- and 5-year DFSs were 82% and 76%, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that N1 node positive disease, size of ≥ 4 cm, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, Ki-67 of ≥ 20%, and nonfunctional pNETs are significantly associated with a lower DFS (P < .05). Univariate Cox analysis identified the following predictors to be significantly associated with poorer DFS: larger tumor size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.28), Ki-67 index of ≥ 20% (HR, 4.93; 95% CI, 2.00-11.44), perineural invasion (HR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.40-7.89), open surgery (HR, 3.34; 95% CI, 1.03-1.33), node-positive disease (HR, 5.27; 95% CI, 2.28-13.26), and increased body mass index (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17) (P < .05).

CONCLUSION

Of note, 1 in 5 patients who underwent resection developed recurrence or metastasis after pancreatectomy. Prognostic predictors of DFS in pNETs could help optimize treatment and enhance follow-up protocols to improve quality and reduce morbidity.

Recurrence-Free Survival and Disease-Specific Survival in Patients with Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms: A Single-Center Retrospective Study of 413 Patients

INTRODUCTION

The prognosis and impact of different prognostic factors in pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (pNEN) remain controversial.

AIM

To investigate prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival and disease-specific survival in patients with pNEN, divided into three groups: patients undergoing surveillance (tumor size < 2 cm, group 1), patients followed after curative-intended surgery (group 2), and patients with unresectable disease or residual tumors after resection (group 3).

METHOD

A single-center retrospective study including consecutive patients over a 20-year period. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors.

RESULTS

413 patients were included, with a mean (SD) age of 62 ± 14 years. In group 1 (n = 51), median (IQR) follow-up was 29 (21-34) months, and tumor size was 1.0 (0.8-1.4) cm. One progressed and had a tumor resection. In group 2 (n = 165), follow-up 59 (31-102) months, median tumor size 2 (1.2-3.4) cm, median Ki-67 index 5 (3-10)%, the 5-year recurrence rate was 21%. Tumor size (p < 0.001), Ki-67 index (p = 0.02), and location in the pancreatic head (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors. In group 3 (n = 197), follow-up 19 (6-46) months, median tumor size 4.2 (2.6-7.0) cm, Ki-67 index 17 (9-64)%, the median disease-specific survival was 22 (6-75) months-99 in NET G1; 54 in NET G2; 14 in NET G3; and 6 months in neuroendocrine carcinomas (NEC). Age (p = 0.029), plasma chromogranin A (p = 0.014), and proliferation, expressed by grade (p = 0.001) and Ki-67 index (p < 0.001), were risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Growth in pNET < 2 cm requiring surgery was observed in 1/51. Tumor size, Ki-67 index, and location in the head were prognostic factors for disease recurrence, while age, plasma chromogranin A, and proliferation predicted mortality in patients with unresectable disease or residual tumors after resection.

Machine learning-based model for prediction and feature analysis of recurrence in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors G1/G2

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (PanNENs) are a heterogeneous group of tumors. Although the prognosis of resected PanNENs is generally considered to be good, a relatively high recurrence rate has been reported. Given the scarcity of large-scale reports about PanNEN recurrence due to their rarity, we aimed to identify the predictors for recurrence in patients with resected PanNENs to improve prognosis.

METHODS

We established a multicenter database of 573 patients with PanNENs, who underwent resection between January 1987 and July 2020 at 22 Japanese centers, mainly in the Kyushu region. We evaluated the clinical characteristics of 371 patients with localized non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (G1/G2). We also constructed a machine learning-based prediction model to analyze the important features to determine recurrence.

RESULTS

Fifty-two patients experienced recurrence (14.0%) during the follow-up period, with the median time of recurrence being 33.7 months. The random survival forest (RSF) model showed better predictive performance than the Cox proportional hazards regression model in terms of the Harrell's C-index (0.841 vs. 0.820). The Ki-67 index, residual tumor, WHO grade, tumor size, and lymph node metastasis were the top five predictors in the RSF model; tumor size above 20 mm was the watershed with increased recurrence probability, whereas the 5-year disease-free survival rate decreased linearly as the Ki-67 index increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed the characteristics of resected PanNENs in real-world clinical practice. Machine learning techniques can be powerful analytical tools that provide new insights into the relationship between the Ki-67 index or tumor size and recurrence.

Infiltrative Growth Predicts the Risk of Recurrence After Surgery in Well-Differentiated Non-Functioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

The incidence of well-differentiated non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-PanNET) increased during the last decades. The risk of relapse after curative surgery, albeit low, is not negligible; moreover, adjuvant treatment is currently not an option and a reliable predictive model based on prognostic characteristics is urgently needed for tailoring a follow-up strategy. The histological classification of PanNET now relies only on the proliferative activity (mitosis and Ki67) and staging. In contrast to other endocrine neoplasms, the role of infiltrative growth pattern in NF-PanNET is not taken into consideration at present. In the current study, 247 consecutive patients who underwent surgical resection for a NF-PanNET were examined for the histological growth pattern of the tumor. Two distinct patterns (non-infiltrative vs. infiltrative) were described with the latter being further subclassified according to the type of structures invaded by the tumor (non-infiltrative: pattern 1; infiltration of adjacent pancreatic parenchyma and/or peripancreatic soft tissue: pattern 2; invasion of nearby organs and/or major vessels: pattern 3). The infiltrative growth resulted to be strongly associated with a poorer survival compared to a non-infiltrative growth (p < 0.001). In particular, the distinction between pancreatic parenchyma and/or peripancreatic soft tissue invasion versus adjacent organs and/or major vessels invasion was the most powerful predictor of recurrence after surgery at multivariate analysis (pattern 2 vs. pattern 1: HR 10.136, p = 0.028; pattern 3 vs. pattern 1: HR 15.775, p = 0.015). The infiltrative growth pattern could therefore provide additional prognostic information implementing the current grading and staging system.

Prognostic Significance and Predictors of Nodal Recurrence After Surgery for Non-Functioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of nodal recurrence after surgery for non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-PanNETs) and its predictors have been poorly investigated. This study aimed to compare clinicopathologic features and survival between patients with nodal relapse and those with distant relapse and to identify predictors of nodal relapse after surgery for NF-PanNETs.

METHODS

All patients (n = 321) submitted to surgery for NF-PanNETs were included. Nodal recurrence was defined as the presence of one or more enlarged LNs at high-quality radiologic examinations and always confirmed by ⁶⁸Ga-DOTA-PET or biopsy.

RESULTS

Altogether, 21 patients (6 %) experienced nodal (± distant) relapse, and 35 patients (11 %) had distant recurrence alone. Isolated nodal recurrence occurred for 23 % of patients with recurrence. Overall, 11 patients died of disease, one of whom (pT3N1G3) had an isolated nodal relapse. The rate of LN metastases (81 % vs 54 %; p = 0.044) and median number of positive LNs (PLN) (3 vs 0; p = 0.019) both were significantly higher for the patients with nodal (± distant) relapse than for those with distant relapse alone. Microvascular invasion (p = 0.046), T stage (p = 0.004), N stage (N1 [p = 0.049]; N2 [p = 0.001]), M stage (p < 0.001), and necrosis (p = 0.011) independently predicted nodal relapse. After distal pancreatectomy (n = 182), 13 patients experienced nodal recurrence, 9 of whom had left paraortic LNs involvement.

DISCUSSION

Lymph nodes are not rare sites of recurrence after surgery for NF-PanNETs. Lymph node involvement is a powerful determinant of nodal relapse. Nodal relapse frequently involves LNs that are not removed during standard lymphadenectomy.

Growth Kinetics of Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms by Histopathologic Grade

OBJECTIVES

The aims of the study are to describe the growth kinetics of pathologically proven, treatment-naive pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (panNENs) at imaging surveillance and to determine their association with histopathologic grade and Ki-67.

METHODS

This study included 100 panNENs from 95 patients who received pancreas protocol computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging from January 2005 to July 2022. All masses were treatment-naive, had histopathologic correlation, and were imaged with at least 2 computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging at least 90 days apart. Growth kinetics was assessed using linear and specific growth rate, stratified by grade and Ki-67. Masses were also assessed qualitatively to determine other possible imaging predictors of grade.

RESULTS

There were 76 grade 1 masses, 17 grade 2 masses, and 7 grade 3 masses. Median (interquartile range) linear growth rates were 0.06 cm/y (0-0.20), 0.40 cm/y (0.22-1.06), and 2.70 cm/y (0.41-3.89) for grade 1, 2, and 3 masses, respectively (P < 0.001). Linear growth rate correlated with Ki-67 with r2 of 0.623 (P < 0.001). At multivariate analyses, linear growth rate was the only imaging feature significantly associated with grade (P = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Growth kinetics correlate with Ki-67 and grade. Grade 1 panNENs grow slowly versus grade 2-3 panNENs.

Predictors of disease recurrence after curative surgery for nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (NF-PanNENs): a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Patients submitted to curative surgery for non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (NF-PanNENs) exhibit a variable risk of disease relapse. Aims of this meta-analysis were to estimate the rate of disease recurrence and to investigate the risk factors for disease relapse in patients submitted to curative surgery for NF-PanNENs.

METHODS

Medline/Pubmed and Web of Science databases were searched for relevant studies. A meta-regression analysis was performed to investigate the source of recurrence rate heterogeneity. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were used to assess the effect of each possible prognostic factor on disease-free survival.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies, involving 2754 patients submitted to curative surgery for NF-PanNENs, were included. The pooled rate of disease recurrence was 21% (95% CI 15-26%). Study quality (Odds ratio, OR 0.94, P = 0.016) and G3-PanNENs rate (OR 2.18, P = 0.040) independently predicted the recurrence rate variability. Nodal metastases (HR 1.63, P < 0.001), tumor grade G2-G3 (G1 versus G2: HR 1.72, P < 0.001, G1 versus G3 HR 2.57, P < 0.001), microvascular (HR 1.25, P = 0.046) and perineural (HR 1.29, P = 0.019) invasion were identified as significant prognostic factors. T stage (T1-T2 versus T3-T4, P = 0.253) and status of resection margins (R0 versus R1, P = 0.173) did not show any significant relationship with NF-PanNENs recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Disease relapse occurs in approximately one out of five patients submitted to curative surgery for NF-PanNENs. Nodal involvement, tumor grade, microvascular and perineural invasion are relevant prognostic factors, that should be taken into account for follow-up and for possible trials investigating adjuvant or neoadjuvant treatments.

Metabolic Syndrome Is Associated with Impaired Survival after Surgery for Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

INTRODUCTION

Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) are a heterogeneous group of neoplasms. Surgery is the only curative treatment option. However, our understanding of predictors of survival after surgery remains incomplete. The aim of the study was to evaluate metabolic syndrome (MetS) as a prognostic factor in pNET.

METHODS

In a retrospective single-center cohort study, we examined the influence of MetS in 120 patients with curative intended resection of pNETs on overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival, and outcome after recurrence.

RESULTS

MetS was present in 32 patients (26.6%). Patients with MetS had an impaired OS after curative intended surgery compared to patients without MetS (median OS 72 months [95% CI 13.3-130.7] vs. not reached, p < 0.001). The shortest survival was observed in patients with MetS in the presence of oligometastatic disease at time of surgery. In a multivariable Cox regression analysis, MetS was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.54, 95% CI [1.88-11.00], p = 0.01). In our dataset, MetS was not associated with tumor recurrence or recurrence-free survival. Nevertheless, in patients with recurrence, MetS was associated with shorter time to recurrence (median 3.4 months, 95% CI [2.48-4.24], vs. 20.1 months, 95% CI [10.8-29.49], p < 0.001), and poor outcome (HR = 5.03, 95% CI [1.25-20.20], p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified MetS as a negative prognostic factor after curative intended surgery for pNET. In particular, patients with oligometastatic disease might not benefit from extensive surgery in the presence of MetS. Furthermore, MetS had a strong impact on survival after recurrence.

Predicting Progression, Recurrence, and Survival in Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: A Single Center Analysis of 174 Patients

INTRODUCTION

The European Neuroendocrine Tumor Society, ENETS, reports variables of prognostic significance in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNET). However, studies have short follow-ups, and the optimal treatment remains controversial. We aimed to determine overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) after conservative treatment, and recurrence-free survival (RFS) after surgery and further to find predictors of aggressive PNET behavior to support treatment decisions.

METHODS

174 patients with PNET treated at Aarhus University Hospital from 2011 to 2021 were included in a retrospective cohort study. Patients were divided into surgically resected (SUR, n=91) and medically or conservatively treated (MED, n=83). Variables were tested in univariate and multivariate survival analysis. Median follow-up time was 3.4 years in the MED group and 4.5 years in the SUR group.

RESULTS

The 5-year OS was 95% and 65% for the SUR and MED groups, respectively. The 5-year RFS in the SUR group was 80% whereas the 5-year PFS in the MED group was 41%. Larger tumor size, Ki67 index, tumor grade, and stage were predictive of shorter OS, RFS, and PFS. Further, chromogranin A was a predictor of OS. Larger tumor size was associated with higher stage and grade. Only 1 of 28 patients with stage 1 disease and size ≤2 cm developed progression on a watch-and-wait strategy during a median follow-up of 36 months.

CONCLUSION

This study supported the ENETS staging and grading system to be useful to predict OS, PFS, and RFS in PNET. Further, our data support that small, localized, low-grade PNETS can be followed with active surveillance.

Ki-67 index of 5% could better predict the clinical prognosis of well-differentiated pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours

BACKGROUND

The pathological classification of well-differentiated pancreatic neuroendocrine tumour (pNET) is based largely upon Ki-67 index. However, current controversies abound about the classification of pNETG1/pNETG2.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinicopathological data were retrospectively analysed for 153 pNETG1/pNETG2 patients hospitalized at China-Japan Friendship Hospital. The critical values of pNETG1/pNETG2 were examined by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and survival analysis was used to compare the clinical prognosis of pNETG1/G2.

RESULTS

Among them, 52.3% were males. The median age was 49 (18-81) years and the clinical types were pNETG1 (n = 38) and pNETG2 (n = 115). According to the receiver operating characteristic curve, the optimal cut-off value was 5.5% for classifying pNETG1/pNETG2. Significant differences between pNETG1 (n = 101) and pNETG2 (n = 52) existed in overall survival (P = 0.001) and disease-free survival (P = 0.013) when Ki-67 index was 5%. Yet no significant differences existed in overall survival (P = 0.378) or disease-free survival (P = 0.091) between pNETG1 and pNETG2 when Ki-67 index was 3%. Furthermore, multivariate analysis indicated that the revised pathological grade was an independent risk factor for mortality and post-operative recurrence of pNET patients (P = 0.003 and 0.014; hazard ratio (HR) = 4.005 and 2.553).

CONCLUSION

Thus, differentiating pNETG1/pNETG2 with Ki-67 index (5%) is proposed as the cut-off value and a new Ki-67 index (5%) is a better predictor of pNET mortality and post-operative recurrence than Ki-67 index (3%).

Resection of Non-Functional Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms-A Single-Center Retrospective Outcome Analysis

Surgery remains the only curative treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (pNEN). Here, we report the outcome after surgery for non-functional pNEN at a European Neuroendocrine Tumor Society (ENETS) center in Germany between 2000 and 2019; cases were analyzed for surgical (Clavien–Dindo classification; CDc) and oncological outcomes. Forty-nine patients (tumor grading G1 n = 25, G2 n = 22, G3 n = 2), with a median age of 56 years, were included. Severe complications (CDc ≥ grade 3b) occurred in 11 patients (22.4%) and type B/C pancreatic fistulas (POPFs) occurred in 5 patients (10.2%); in-hospital mortality was 2% (n = 1). Six of seven patients with tumor recurrence (14.3%) had G2 tumors in the pancreatic body/tail. The median survival was 5.7 years (68 months; [1–228 months]). Neither the occurrence (p = 0.683) nor the severity of complications had an influence on the relapse behavior (p = 0.086). This also applied for a POPF (≥B, p = 0.609). G2 pNEN patients (n = 22) with and without tumor recurrence had similar median tumor sizes (4 cm and 3.9 cm, respectively). Five of the six relapsed G2 patients (83.3%) had tumor-positive lymph nodes (N+); all G2 pNEN patients with recurrence had initially been treated with distal pancreatic resection. Pancreatic resections for pNEN are safe but associated with relevant postoperative morbidity. Future studies are needed to evaluate suitable resection strategies for G2 pNEN.