A decision scheme for coronary angiography after acute myocardial infarction

Exercise electrocardiography after acute coronary syndromes: still the first testing modality?

Recent diagnostic and therapeutic advances have been questioning the role of exercise electrocardiography (ECG) for risk stratification of patients recovering from an acute coronary syndrome. The aim of this review was to verify whether evidence still exists supporting the use of exercise ECG as first choice stress testing modality in this clinical setting in the light of the most recent prognostic data and of cost effectiveness considerations. It was concluded that a large body of evidence supports the use of exercise ECG as a cost-effective tool for prognostic purposes and for quality of life assessment following acute coronary syndromes.

Incremental Prognostic Value of Stress Echocardiography Over Clinical and Stress Electrocardiographic Variables in Patients With Prior Myocardial Infarction: "Warranty Time" of a Normal Stress Echocardiogram

BACKGROUND

Patients with prior myocardial infarction (MI) are at increased risk of subsequent cardiac events (MI or cardiac death). The incremental prognostic value and warranty time of a normal stress echocardiogram in this high-risk population is not well defined.

METHODS

We evaluated 251 consecutive patients (62 +/- 11 years; 64% males) with remote history of MI (>6 weeks) undergoing stress echocardiography (83% dobutamine). Ischemia was defined as a new reversible wall motion abnormality and/or biphasic response. Follow-up for up to 4 years (mean 2.9 +/- 1.0 years) for confirmed MI (n = 7) and cardiac death (n = 15) were obtained.

RESULTS

Stress echocardiography effectively risk stratified patients into normal versus abnormal subgroups (Event rate 0.8% per year vs 4.2% per year; P = 0.01; RR = 5.6, 95% CI = 1.3-24.7). In patients with a normal stress echocardiogram, the event rate at the end of 6, 12, and 18 months were <1% per year. After 18 months the event rate in patients with a normal stress echocardiogram increased greatly (>1% per year). Stress echocardiography yields incremental prognostic value over clinical and stress electrocardiographic variables (Global chi-square increased from 12.4 to 25 to 31.1, P < 0.0001 both groups).

CONCLUSIONS

Stress echocardiography yields appropriate risk stratification and prognosis and provides incremental prognostic value over clinical and stress electrocardiographic variables even in patients with prior MI. A normal stress echocardiogram portends a benign prognosis (<1% event rate/year) for up to 18 months.

[Risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction]

In recent years, the characteristics of patients who suffer acute myocardial infarction without complications during hospitalization have changed. In addition, the range of non-invasive studies available for evaluating left ventricular systolic function, residual myocardial ischemia, and myocardial viability in these patients has improved. Left ventricular systolic function and residual ischemia should be evaluated in all patients before release. The non-invasive technique used (exercise test, echocardiography, nuclear cardiology, magnetic resonance imaging) depends on availability, experience, and results at each institution. Coronary arteriography should be performed in patients with significant ischemia or severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction in non-invasive studies. In these cases coronary angiography must be performed to determine if coronary arteries are suitable for revascularization before performing a test of myocardial viability.

Development and validation of a simple model to predict severe coronary artery disease after myocardial infarction: potential impact on cardiac catheterization use in the United States and Canada

BACKGROUND

Improved patient selection may optimize the efficiency of cardiac catheterization in both high- and low-rate regions. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a clinical model for predicting high-risk coronary artery disease (CAD) after myocardial infarction (MI) and to examine the model's potential impact on the use rate of both US and Canadian catheterization practices.

METHODS AND RESULTS

By the use of baseline clinical variables from 1122 patients in the angiographic substudy of the Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Arteries in Acute Coronary Syndromes (GUSTO-1) trial, we developed a model that was predictive of severe CAD (left main or triple-vessel disease). The final model, which included prior MI, age, sex, hyperlipidemia, and decreased left ventricular ejection fraction (C-index = 0.70), was externally validated in 781 patients in the GUSTO IIb trial. Although the probability of severe CAD predicted 5-year survival, the frequency of catheterization in both Canada and the United States bore no relationship to severe CAD risk in the GUSTO-1 trial. By use of the model, we estimated that as much as 15% of US catheterizations from both GUSTO-1 and GUSTO IIb might have been avoided, without significantly compromising the number of patients with severe CAD who were identified (sensitivity = 0.94). By applying the model to Canadian practices, an additional 30 cases of severe CAD might have been identified per every 1000 catheterizations performed, without increasing the catheterization rate.

CONCLUSIONS

The likelihood of severe CAD after ST-elevation MI may be predicted from simple baseline clinical variables. The use of a severe CAD predictive model to guide patient selection might enhance the cost-effectiveness of both aggressive and conservative catheterization practices.

What are appropriate rates of invasive procedures following acute myocardial infarction? A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To assess the evidence that higher rates of coronary angiography (CA) and revascularisation (RV) in the subacute phase of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) improve patient outcomes.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE 1990 - December 1999, Current Contents 1990-1999, Cochrane Library (Issue 4, 1999), HealthSTAR 1990-1999, selected websites and bibliographies of retrieved articles.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

Studies selected were (1) randomised trials comparing outcomes of "invasive" versus "conservative" use of CA and RV following AMI; (2) observational studies with formal methods comparing outcomes of high versus low rates of use of these procedures; and (3) clinical practice guidelines (CPGs), expert panel statements and decision analyses which met critical appraisal criteria, and which specified procedural indications. Outcome measures were rates of mortality, re-infarction and limiting or unstable angina.

DATA SYNTHESIS

56 articles were identified; 24 met inclusion criteria. Pooled data from nine RCTs of "invasive" (CA rate 96%; RV rate 66%) versus "conservative" (CA rate 28%; RV rate 19%) strategies showed no significant differences in mortality or re-infarction rates. Pooled results from 12 observational studies showed no mortality differences, but an excess reinfarction rate (8.0% vs 6.4%; P<0.001) in high- versus low-rate populations. Evidence of survival benefit from procedural intervention was strongest for patients with recurrent ischaemia combined with left ventricular dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

In the subacute phase of AMI, rates of CA and RV in excess of 30% and 20%, respectively, may not confer additional benefit in preventing death or re-infarction. However, variability between studies in design, patient selection, and extent of cross-over from medical to procedural groups, as well as limited data on symptom status, limits generalisability of results.

Safety and cost-effectiveness of early discharge after primary angioplasty in low risk patients with acute myocardial infarction. PAMI-II Investigators. Primary Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction

OBJECTIVES

The second Primary Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction (PAMI-II) study evaluated the hypothesis that primary percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), with subsequent discharge from the hospital 3 days later, is safe and cost-effective in low risk patients.

BACKGROUND

In low risk patients with myocardial infarction (MI), few data exist regarding the need for intensive care and noninvasive testing or the appropriate length of hospital stay.

METHODS

Patients with acute MI underwent emergency catheterization with primary PTCA when appropriate. Low risk patients (age <70 years, left ventricular ejection fraction >45%, one- or two-vessel disease, successful PTCA, no persistent arrhythmias) were randomized to receive accelerated care (admission to a nonintensive care unit and day 3 hospital discharge without noninvasive testing [n = 237] or traditional care [n = 234]).

RESULTS

Patients who received accelerated care had similar in-hospital outcomes but were discharged 3 days earlier (4.2+/-2.3 vs. 7.1+/-4.7 days, p = 0.0001) and had lower hospital costs ($9,658+/-5,287 vs. $11,604+/-6,125 p = 0.002) than the patients who received traditional care. At 6 months, accelerated and traditional care groups had a similar rate of mortality (0.8% vs. 0.4%, p = 1.00), unstable ischemia (10.1% vs. 12.0%, p = 0.52), reinfarction (0.8% vs. 0.4%, p = 1.00), stroke (0.4% vs. 2.6%, p = 0.07), congestive heart failure (4.6% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.85) or their combined occurrence (15.2% vs. 17.5%, p = 0.49). The study was designed to detect a 10% difference in event rates; at 6 months, only a 2.3% difference was measured between groups, indicating an actual power of 0.19.

CONCLUSIONS

Early identification of low risk patients with MI allowed safe omission of the intensive care phase and noninvasive testing, and a day 3 hospital discharge strategy, resulting in substantial cost savings.

Early prediction of risk in patients with suspected unstable angina using serum troponin T

BACKGROUND

One-third of patients with rest angina are reported to have detectable cardiac troponin T in the serum and may be at increased risk of serious cardiac events.

AIM

To investigate whether a single early estimation of serum troponin T was an independent predictor of serious cardiovascular complications in patients with suspected unstable angina.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study in which patients with suspected rest angina had a serum troponin T estimation 14 hours after symptom onset and were classified using discriminator levels of serum troponin T of 0.05 and 0.1 microgram/L as well as a number of other variables. All patients were followed for six months to document any cardiac complications and a stepwise logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine independent risk factors of complications.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-four patients were evaluated. Using a discriminator level of 0.05 microgram/L 54 patients (33%) had detectable troponin T. The admission ECG was the only independent predictor of cardiac events in hospital--odds ratio 4.0 (95% CI 1.7-9.6). Detectable troponin T did not appear to be an independent predictor of serious complications. During the six-month follow-up period, detectable troponin T using a discriminator of 0.05 microgram/L was an independent predictor of serious complications--odds ratio 3.7 (95% CI 1.8-7.6).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with suspected rest angina, detectable serum troponin T > 0.05 microgram/L is an independent predictor of serious cardiac events during the six-month follow-up period although not during hospitalisation. Using a single, early serum troponin T estimation and other variables available at the time of admission, a high risk subgroup who may benefit from early investigation and revascularisation can be identified.

Prognostic value of coronary angiography in patients with chronic ischemic left ventricular dysfunction and evidence of viable myocardium on thallium reinjection imaging

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the independent and incremental prognostic value of cardiac catheterization and coronary angiographic data over thallium reinjection after stress redistribution imaging in patients with myocardial infarction and left ventricular dysfunction.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Sixty-nine patients with a first myocardial infarction (> 8 weeks) and left ventricular ejection fraction < or = 40% underwent thallium-201 reinjection after stress redistribution tomographic imaging and cardiac catheterization. During follow-up (mean 26 months) 11 cardiac events (8 cardiac deaths and 3 nonfatal myocardial infarctions) occurred. On Cox regression analysis independent predictors of cardiac events were the sum of reversible and moderately irreversible defects at thallium reinjection (chi 2, 16.4, p < 0.005) and the number of reversible defects at stress redistribution (chi 2, 5.1, p < 0.05). Moreover, thallium reinjection imaging improved the prognostic power of clinical, exercise, and stress redistribution data (p < 0.01). The inclusion of left ventricular ejection fraction produced a borderline improvement (p = 0.06), whereas the number of vessels with coronary disease did not. In contrast, in patients at high risk such as those with at least 25% of viable myocardium at reinjection, the number of diseased vessels provided additional prognostic information (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with chronic ischemic left ventricular dysfunction, left ventricular ejection fraction, but not the number of diseased vessels, provides additional prognostic information to thallium imaging. Therefore coronary angiography seems unnecessary in these patients, unless a significative amount of viable myocardium is detectable.

A metaanalysis of predischarge risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction with stress electrocardiographic, myocardial perfusion, and ventricular function imaging

We assessed the relation of abnormal predischarge non-invasive test results to outcomes in postmyocardial infarction patients. We included series published from 1980 to 1995 containing only myocardial infarction patients, enrolling most patients after 1980, testing within 6 weeks of infarction, having follow-up rates > 80%, and having 2 x 2 frequency outcome rates for test results, that were the latest of multiple reports. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated for test results for 1-year outcomes (cardiac death, cardiac death or reinfarction). Univariable and summary odds were calculated for test results. Reports (n = 54) included a total of 19,874 patients and were primarily retrospective (76%) and small series (35% of reports included < 5 deaths). One-year mortality ranged from 2.5% for pharmacologic stress echocardiography to 9.3% for exercise radionuclide angiography. Positive predictive values for most noninvasive risk markers were < 0.10 for cardiac death and < 0.20 for death or reinfarction. Electrocardiographic, symptomatic, and scintigraphic risk markers of ischemia (ST-segment depression, angina, a reversible defect) were less sensitive (< or = 44%) for identifying morbid and fatal outcomes than markers of left ventricular dysfunction or heart failure (exercise duration, impaired systolic blood pressure response, and peak left ventricular ejection fraction). The positive predictive value of predischarge noninvasive testing is low. Markers of left ventricular dysfunction appear to be better predictors than markers of ischemia. Limitations of the literature-small samples and widely varying event rates-impede our ability to discern the accuracy of pre-discharge noninvasive testing. More rigorous, controlled trials are required to elucidate the relative value of these tests for risk stratification.

Thrombolytic therapy for patients with prior percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and subsequent acute myocardial infarction. GUSTO-I Investigators. Global Utilization of Streptokinase and t-PA for Occluded Coronary Arteries

Our purpose was to evaluate the outcomes of patients with prior coronary angioplasty who underwent thrombolysis for new acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the Global Utilization of Streptokinase and t-PA for Occluded Coronary Arteries-I trial. Baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes were compared between patients with (n = 1,647) and without (n = 39,150) previous angioplasty. The relations among prior angioplasty, clinical outcomes, and treatment effects were examined with logistic regression modeling. Patients with previous angioplasty tended to be younger and presented sooner after symptom onset, but had more multivessel disease and lower ejection fractions. Unadjusted mortality was significantly lower in the prior-angioplasty group at 24 hours (1.8% vs 2.7%, p = 0.03) and 30 days (5.6% vs 7.0%, p = 0.036). Although most of the survival advantage was due to low-risk characteristics in this group (lower age and heart rate and fewer anterior wall AMIs), prior angioplasty remained a weak but independent predictor of survival. Recurrent ischemia and reinfarction occurred more often in the prior-angioplasty group, as did bypass surgery (12.2% vs 8.5%) and repeat angioplasty (34.5% vs 21.4%). Patients with prior angioplasty and prior AMI had lower 30-day mortality than those with prior infarction alone (6.3% vs 12.6%, p < 0.01). Treatment effects on 30-day mortality were similar among patients with prior angioplasty (odds ratio 1.2 for accelerated tissue-plasminogen activator v. combined streptokinase arms, 95% confidence interval 0.73 to 1.9). Patients with prior angioplasty who present with AMI have fewer in-hospital adverse events and lower 30-day mortality than those without such a history.

Early and six-month outcome in patients with angina pectoris early after acute myocardial infarction (the GISSI-3 APPI [angina precoce post-infarto] study)

There is conflicting evidence whether or not early postinfarction angina implies an unfavorable prognosis. This prospective study assessed the significance and natural history of early angina in a broad population of patients conservatively managed after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and enrolled in the third Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nel Infarto Miocardico (GISSI-3) trial. Out of 2,363 consecutive patients (age 63 +/- 11; first AMI in 86%; thrombolysis in 74%) admitted in 31 centers lacking on-site revascularization facilities, early angina associated with transient electrocardiographic (ECG) changes was documented in 332 (14%). At multivariate analysis, preinfarction angina, age > or = 70 years, female gender, and history of infarct were significant predictors of early angina. Though the in-hospital course was free from major cardiac events in 78% of patients after the first anginal episode, reinfarction was more common after early angina (7% vs 2% in patients without, RR 3.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9 to 5.6; p <0.001), and death occurred in 7% of patients with early angina (vs 5% of patients without, RR 1.4, CI 0.9 to 2.4, p = NS). No demographic or clinical characteristics identified patients who suffered nonfatal reinfarction after angina, and neither the ECG location (infarct zone or remote) nor patterns of ECG changes during angina proved significant predictors of in-hospital reinfarction or death. Early angina emerged as the sole independent predictor of 6-month cumulative reinfarction (12% vs 5% of patients without, RR 2.9, CI 2.0 to 4.4; p <0.0001) and an independent predictor of death (13% vs 7% of patients without early angina, RR 2.3, CI 1.6 to 3.3; p <0.0001). Early postinfarction angina is a powerful prognostic marker. Patients with early postinfarction angina had an unfavourable in-hospital outcome, but the prospective identification of patients at greater risk of major events after angina remains elusive. Although in-hospital stabilization was achieved by medical treatment in the majority of patients with early angina, their increased 6-month risk of reinfarction and death suggests that a more aggressive management is warranted.

Comparison of early invasive and conservative treatments in patients with anterior wall non-Q-wave acute myocardial infarction

To compare the long-term prognosis of a group of patients treated by an early invasive approach after a non-Q-wave anterior wall acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with a similar group treated conservatively, data from 110 consecutive patients with non-Q-wave AMI were retrospectively obtained from 3 different hospitals: (1) a hospital with coronary angioplasty and coronary bypass facilities favoring on early invasive approach, (2) a hospital with a catheterization laboratory and no coronary angioplasty or coronary bypass facilities, and (3) a community hospital without a catheterization laboratory. Patients were divided according to the presence or absence of an early invasive approach: those who had undergone in-hospital catheterization and revascularization (n = 55) and those with a conservative approach (n = 55). The early invasive approach resulted in a significant decrease in major events. The rate of recurrent myocardial infarction was 29% in the conservative group versus 7.2% in the invasive group (p = 0.025). Survival rate curves at 3-year follow-up showed significant differences in mortality (p = 0.001), recurrent myocardial infarction (p = 0.002), recurrent angina pectoris (p = 0.001), and development of congestive heart failure (p = 0.05). Multivariate analysis disclosed the early invasive approach to be an independent predictor for decreasing the likelihood of recurrent infarction by 86% (odds ratio 0.14, confidence intervals 0.04 to 0.48, p = 0.0006), and for decreasing the likelihood of recurrent angina by 66% (odds ratio 0.34, confidence intervals 0.18 to 0.63, p < 0.005). The early invasive strategy may result in an improved outcome in the treatment of patients with non-Q-wave anterior wall AMI compared with patients treated conservatively.

Risk stratification after myocardial infarction: targets and tools

The increasing use of thrombolytic therapy and coronary revascularization, either as acute therapy or early thereafter, has ushered in the "interventional era" of management of myocardial infarction (MI). This new scenario has at least two clear cut clinical implications. First, the cardiologist can intervene earlier to change the "natural history" of MI, not only to improve the immediate inhospital prognosis but also to prevent the development of those factors affecting the clinical outcome after discharge. Second, patients currently selected for predischarge evaluation are at lower risk for subsequent cardiac events. The critical management decision is with the majority of patients who have an uncomplicated MI. Two approaches may be applied to this large cohort to assess cardiac risk before hospital discharge. One method is the initial use of noninvasive tests reserving coronary angiography for patients with abnormal test results. The second approach comprises early cardiac catheterization in virtually all survivors. The routine use of angiography after MI does not appear to lead to an improved course compared to a more selective approach. Based on observation of an excellent 1-year outcome of patients in the conservative group of the large TIMI-2 and SWIFT trials, one could conclude that predischarge risk stratification by stress testing and clinical assessment has been empirically, albeit not experimentally, validated. On the other hand, if a noninvasive test proved to be highly predictive of subsequent cardiac events, the need for doing routine coronary angiography would in large part be obviated. Developing or refining such a test should take into account several caveats.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Strategies for prognostic assessment of uncomplicated first myocardial infarction: 5-year follow-up study

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to use noninvasive studies early after infarction to assess medium-term prognosis in patients with a first uncomplicated myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND

Although the use of early postinfarction assessment to gauge short-term prognosis in myocardial infarction is well established, there have been few comprehensive evaluations of noninvasive methods for assessing medium- and long-term prognosis.

METHODS

We prospectively studied 115 consecutive patients < 65 years old with a first acute uncomplicated myocardial infarction to evaluate the prognostic role of predischarge cardiac studies. These included submaximal exercise testing, thallium-201 scintigraphy, radionuclide exercise ventriculography, two-dimensional echocardiography, ambulatory electrocardiographic (Holter) monitoring and cardiac catheterization. All patients without complications were followed up > or = 5 years.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 78 patients (68%) developed complications, which were severe in 37 (32%). Exercise thallium-201 scintigraphy yielded the highest percentage (77%) for correctly classified patients. It also had the highest predictive value for complications (97%) and severe complications (92%) when it was used in association with exercise testing and radionuclide ventriculography. The addition of cardiac catheterization did not improve on the predictive power of noninvasive studies. Four decision trees (exercise testing + echocardiography, exercise testing + radionuclide ventriculography, thallium-201 + echocardiography, thallium-201 + radionuclide ventriculography) allowed stratification of all patients in a high, intermediate or low risk category. The combination of thallium-201 scintigraphy and radionuclide ventriculography yielded the best results (90% predictive value for complications if the outcome of both tests was positive), but there were no significant differences with the other models.

CONCLUSIONS

Any combination of a test detecting residual ischemia or functional capacity, or both (exercise testing or thallium-201 scintigraphy), and a test assessing ventricular function (echocardiography or radionuclide ventriculography) results in useful prognostic information in patients with an uncomplicated first acute myocardial infarction.

Independent prognostic value of serum creatine kinase isoenzyme MB mass, cardiac troponin T and myosin light chain levels in suspected acute myocardial infarction. Analysis of 28 months of follow-up in 196 patients

OBJECTIVES

We sought to determine the incidence and independent prognostic value of increased serum levels of sensitive serologic markers in patients in whom a conventionally diagnosed acute myocardial infarction had been ruled out.

BACKGROUND

Increased serum levels of creatine kinase (CK) isoenzyme MB mass and cardiac troponin T in patients with unstable angina pectoris are associated with a poor prognosis.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 196 consecutive patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction, which was later ruled out in 124. Increased serum levels of CK-MB mass, troponin T and myosin light chains were compared with clinical findings, ST-T wave abnormalities and presence of arrhythmias.

RESULTS

Of the patients in the noninfarction group, 28% had serum CK-MB mass > or = 6 micrograms/liter, 20% had troponin T > or = 0.20 micrograms/liter, and 26% had myosin light chains > or = 0.4 micrograms/liter (discrimination limits). The cardiac event rate (cardiac death, nonfatal acute myocardial infarction) within 28 months was significantly higher in patients in the noninfarction group with elevated marker levels (range 22% to 24%) than in patients with values below these discriminators (range 3% to 5%) but was not significantly different from that in patients with a definite diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (29%). Further, significant predictors of cardiac events were previous myocardial infarction; myocardial infarction or angina pectoris, or both; previous congestive heart failure; ST-T wave abnormalities on admission; a transient ST-T wave shift on serial electrocardiograms (ECGs); recurrent chest pain; and occurrence of supraventricular or ventricular tachycardia, or both, during the 1st 48 h after admission. It was found that all three biochemical markers, in the main, convey independent prognostic information with respect to clinical findings and presence of arrhythmias but not ST-T wave abnormalities on admission or a transient ST-T wave shift on serial ECGs.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased serum levels of CK-MB mass, troponin T and myosin light chains all detect a subgroup of 25% of patients without acute myocardial infarction who have as poor a prognosis as that of patients with a definite diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. All three biochemical markers provide similar important independent prognostic information with regard to clinical findings and arrhythmias but add no additional prognostic information once ECG ST-T wave changes are considered.

Does thrombolysis affect the prognostic value of the post-infarct exercise test?

There has been some debate on usefulness of the exercise test in risk stratification after myocardial infarction in the thrombolytic era. This was assessed in 295 patients of whom 184 were treated with thrombolysis. Each had an exercise test using a modified Naughton protocol within 14 days of acute myocardial infarction. The tests were graded as high risk positive (112), low risk positive (83), or negative (100). These gradings predicted use of multiple drug therapy (p = 0.05), severity of coronary artery disease (p < 0.01), and coronary artery bypass grafting (p < 0.01). There was no influence on heart failure, recurrent myocardial infarction or death. This was independent of the use of thrombolytic therapy. The whole group had a good prognosis with a mortality of 2.4% after 56 weeks' follow-up. The exercise test is still a useful screening test after myocardial infarction. In this study, there was a high negative predictive accuracy of 91% for any event. Its use is not altered by thrombolysis. The finding of a lack of influence of the exercise test on major events may be a reflection of the current good prognosis after myocardial infarction and the prompt use of revascularisation.

Predictors of nonfatal reinfarction in survivors of myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Results of the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI-2) Data Base

OBJECTIVES

This study was designed to reassess the prediction of recurrent nonfatal myocardial infarction in patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction after thrombolysis.

BACKGROUND

Recurrent nonfatal myocardial infarction is a strong and independent predictor of subsequent mortality. Current knowledge of risk factors for nonfatal reinfarction is still largely based on data gathered before the advent of thrombolysis. Thus, this prospective study was planned to identify harbinger of nonfatal reinfarction in the postinfarction patients of the multicenter Grouppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI-2) trial.

METHODS

Predictors of nonfatal reinfarction at 6 months were analyzed by multivariate technique (Cox model) in 8,907 GISSI-2 survivors of myocardial infarction with clinical follow-up, relying on a set of prespecified variables reflecting residual ischemia, left ventricular failure or dysfunction, complex ventricular arrhythmias, comorbidity as well as demographic and historical factors.

RESULTS

The postdischarge to 6-month incidence rate of nonfatal reinfarction was 2.5%. Independent predictors of nonfatal reinfarction were cardiac ineligibility for exercise test (relative risk 2.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.98 to 4.45), previous myocardial infarction (relative risk 1.70, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.36) and angina at follow-up (relative risk 1.50, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.04). On further multivariate analysis, performed in 6,580 patients with both echocardiographic and electrocardiographic monitoring data available, a history of angina emerged as an additional risk predictor (relative risk 1.58, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.25).

CONCLUSIONS

The 6-month incidence of nonfatal reinfarction is rather low in survivors of myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Cardiac ineligibility for exercise testing and a history of coronary artery disease are risk predictors. Recurrent nonfatal infarction is not predictable by qualitative variables reflecting residual ischemia, except by postdischarge angina. Prediction of nonfatal reinfarction appears less accurate than prediction of mortality, as almost 50% of reinfarctions occur in patients without any of the identified risk factors.

Usefulness of exercise testing shortly after acute myocardial infarction for predicting 10-year mortality

Previous studies on the prognostic value of exercise test variables after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are limited methodologically and have yielded inconsistent results. This study determined whether 6 exercise test variables (systolic blood pressure, ST-segment depression or elevation, exercise capacity, arrhythmias, and angina pectoris) after controlling for age and sex, enhance 6 clinical variables (digoxin, previous AMI, history of systemic hypertension and angina, Killip class, and stress) as predictors of cardiovascular death and act as independent predictors as well. The present study followed 258 patients for 10.6 years, each of whom had AMI between 1977 and 1980 and an exercise test before hospital discharge. By 1988, 71 of the 258 patients had died, 56 of cardiovascular causes. This study is unique because exposure and outcome variables are clearly defined and follow-up was complete and longer than in previous studies. Multivariate survival analysis using an exponential model was tested to evaluate the conditional effects of the exercise test and clinical variables and to control for confounders. The model combined the exercise test and clinical variables. Results are reported with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). For important clinical risk predictors, the HRs with CIs are: digoxin use, HR 4.0 (CI 1.8, 8.5); history of prior AMI, HR 2.4 (CI 1.2, 4.7); history of systemic hypertension, HR 2.5 (CI 1.3, 4.5); angina, HR 2.4 (CI 1.3, 4.5); and stress, HR 4.2 (CI 2.2, 7.9).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Prognostic value of dipyridamole sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography and dipyridamole stress echocardiography for new cardiac events after an uncomplicated myocardial infarction

A high-dose dipyridamole stress test (0.84 mg/kg in 6 minutes) with simultaneous sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) and echocardiographic imaging was performed in 89 patients before hospital discharge after an uncomplicated myocardial infarction. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of these tests for new cardiac events and to compare the relative values of SPECT and echocardiography in a postinfarction dipyridamole stress test. Two years after infarction, nine patients (10%) had died, five patients (6%) had suffered a nonfatal reinfarction, and 14 patients (16%) had been readmitted to the hospital for a revascularization procedure. Cardiac death had occurred in 5 (10%) of 48 patients with a positive SPECT versus 4 (10%) of 41 with a negative SPECT (difference not significant) and in 6 (19%) of 31 with a positive echocardiogram versus 3 (5%) of 56 with a negative echocardiogram (p = 0.05). Cardiac death or reinfarction had occurred in 8 (17%) of 48 patients with a positive SPECT versus 6 (15%) of 41 with a negative SPECT (difference not significant) and in 6 (19%) of 31 with a positive echocardiogram versus 8 (14%) of 56 with a negative echocardiogram (difference not significant). Thus the predictive value of the dipyridamole stress test for new cardiac events after an uncomplicated myocardial infarction was limited, irrespective of the method used to detect ischemia. Reversible perfusion defects were identified more frequently than new wall motion abnormalities but did not predict late events. A positive dipyridamole echocardiogram was associated with a higher late mortality rate but did not predict other cardiac events.

Early exercise testing after acute myocardial infarction in the elderly: clinical evaluation and prognostic significance

Early exercise testing (EET) after acute myocardial infarction (MI) is a well-established means of detecting patients at high risk for subsequent cardiac events. However, the value of this test is not well documented in elderly patients. We evaluated the clinical and prognostic significance of EET in 188 patients, aged 70 years or more, 14 +/- 3 days after an uncomplicated acute MI. The mean follow-up period was 3.6 years (range 1 to 6 years) in 95% of the patients. The total mortality rate was 13.5% (24/178) and the cardiac-related mortality rate was 7.8% (14/178), with 64% of the deaths occurring in the first 3 years. There were no complications during EET. The following parameters measured during EET on a bicycle ergometer were predictive of subsequent cardiac death: an increase in systolic blood pressure of less than 30 mm Hg (p < 0.001), an increase in the double product of less than 12,500 mm Hg.beats/min (p < 0.001), a maximal load less than 60 W (p < 0.001), and a total duration of exercise less than 5 minutes (p < 0.001). The combination of these four parameters increased the predictive value of the test (p < 0.0001). ST segment depression and ventricular arrhythmias during exercise were not correlated with the incidence of subsequent cardiac death, but the degree of ST segment depression was directly and significantly (p < 0.0001) associated with the incidence of subsequent nonlethal cardiac events (coronary bypass surgery, coronary angioplasty, reinfarction, or unstable angina).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Prognostic significance of early ischemia after acute myocardial infarction in low-risk patients. IRES (Ischemia Residua) Study Group

Early postinfarction angina is generally believed to imply an unfavorable prognosis. However, most of the published information devices from data collected in the prethrombolytic era, with widely differing populations and definitions of early angina, and very little data pertinent to low-risk patients are available. This collaborative study prospectively assessed the incidence of early recurrent ischemia after thrombolysis, as well as its prognostic significance, in 453 consecutive patients aged < or = 70 years with an uncomplicated course in the first 24 hours of a first myocardial infarction participating in the second Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI-2) trial. Early recurrent ischemia (spontaneous, transient ST depression or elevation of > 1 mm and/or T-wave inversion), assessed in the coronary care unit with continuous clinical and electrocardiographic monitoring, was documented in 35 of 453 patients (8%) and was unrelated to sex, age, electrocardiographic location, Q-wave or non-Q-wave infarction, thrombolytic agent and time to its administration. In-hospital cardiac events (7 deaths, 19 nonfatal reinfarctions and 8 urgent revascularizations) occurred in 15 of 35 patients (43%) with versus 19 of 418 without (4.5%) recurrent ischemia (p < 0.001). At the 6-month follow-up of 352 medically treated patients who did not have in-hospital events, the incidence of death, reinfarction and recurrent angina was comparable between patients with (2 of 18, 11%) and without (62 of 334, 19%) early ischemia (p = NS). With use of stepwise multivariate analysis, early ischemia was the only significant predictor of in-hospital cardiac events (p < 0.01).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Effect of captopril on mortality and morbidity in patients with left ventricular dysfunction after myocardial infarction. Results of the survival and ventricular enlargement trial. The SAVE Investigators

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular dilatation and dysfunction after myocardial infarction are major predictors of death. In experimental and clinical studies, longterm therapy with the angiotensin-converting--enzyme inhibitor captopril attenuated ventricular dilatation and remodeling. We investigated whether captopril could reduce morbidity and mortality in patients with left ventricular dysfunction after a myocardial infarction.

METHODS

Within 3 to 16 days after myocardial infarction, 2231 patients with ejection fractions of 40 percent or less but without overt heart failure or symptoms of myocardial ischemia were randomly assigned to receive doubleblind treatment with either placebo (1116 patients) or captopril (1115 patients) and were followed for an average of 42 months.

RESULTS

Mortality from all causes was significantly reduced in the captopril group (228 deaths, or 20 percent) as compared with the placebo group (275 deaths, or 25 percent); the reduction in risk was 19 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 3 to 32 percent; P = 0.019). In addition, the incidence of both fatal and nonfatal major cardiovascular events was consistently reduced in the captopril group. The reduction in risk was 21 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 5 to 35 percent; P = 0.014) for death from cardiovascular causes, 37 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 20 to 50 percent; P less than 0.001) for the development of severe heart failure, 22 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 4 to 37 percent; P = 0.019) for congestive heart failure requiring hospitalization, and 25 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 5 to 40 percent; P = 0.015) for recurrent myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction after myocardial infarction, long-term administration of captopril was associated with an improvement in survival and reduced morbidity and mortality due to major cardiovascular events. These benefits were observed in patients who received thrombolytic therapy, aspirin, or beta-blockers, as well as those who did not, suggesting that treatment with captopril leads to additional improvement in outcome among selected survivors of myocardial infarction.

Long-term survival of emergency department patients with acute chest pain

To evaluate the long-term prognosis of patients with acute chest pain, prospective clinical data and long-term follow-up data (mean 30.1 +/- 9.4 months) were collected for 1,956 patients who presented to the emergency department of an urban teaching hospital with this chief complaint. During follow-up of the 1,915 patients who were discharged alive from the emergency department or hospital, there were 113 (6%) cardiovascular deaths. No differences were detected in the post-discharge cardiovascular survival rates after 3 years of experience with patients who were discharged from the emergency department with a known prior diagnosis of angina or myocardial infarction (89%) and patients who had been admitted and found to have acute myocardial infarction (85%), angina (87%), or other cardiovascular diagnoses (87%). Patients who were discharged from either the hospital or the emergency department without cardiovascular diagnoses had an excellent prognosis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified 5 independent correlates of cardiovascular mortality after discharge: age, prior history of coronary disease, ischemic changes on the emergency department electrocardiogram, congestive heart failure and cardiogenic shock. These findings indicate that the postdischarge cardiovascular mortality of patients with chest pain who are discharged from the emergency department with a known history of coronary disease is similar to that of admitted patients with angina or myocardial infarction. These data suggest that the same types of prognostic evaluation strategies that have been developed for admitted patients with ischemic heart disease should also be considered when such patients present to the emergency department but are not admitted.

Uncomplicated first myocardial infarction: strategy for comprehensive prognostic studies

To evaluate the prognostic role of combined cardiac studies (submaximal exercise test, thallium-201 scintigraphy, radionuclide exercise ventriculography, two-dimensional echocardiography, Holter monitoring and cardiac catheterization) in patients with a first acute myocardial infarction without complications during hospital admission, 115 consecutive patients aged less than 65 years were prospectively evaluated. The studies were carried out before hospital discharge and the patients were then clinically followed up for 12 months. During the follow-up period, 69 patients (60%) developed complications, which were severe in 23 (20%). Half of all complications and 70% of severe complications developed during the 1st follow-up month. Logistic regression analysis disclosed that the combination of studies with the highest predictive power for complications (probability of complications 99%) and severe complications (probability of severe complications 95%) was the association of exercise test + thallium-201 + echocardiogram. Four decision models (exercise test + echocardiography, exercise test + radionuclide ventriculography, thallium-201 scintigraphy + echocardiography, thallium-201 scintigraphy + radionuclide ventriculography) allowed the stratification of all patients in a particular risk category (high, intermediate or low). The best decision model was the association of thallium-201 scintigraphy + radionuclide ventriculography (probability of complications if both tests were positive 84%; probability of absence of severe complications if both tests were negative 88%), but there were no significant differences with the other models. Any association of a test detecting residual ischemia or functional capacity, or both (exercise test or thallium-201) and a test assessing ventricular function (echocardiography or radionuclide ventriculography) results in significant prognostic information in patients with an uncomplicated first acute myocardial infarction. Additional cardiac catheterization does not improve the predictive power of noninvasive studies, which should ideally be performed before hospital discharge because most complications develop during the 1st follow-up month.

Risk stratification in survivors of acute myocardial infarction: routine cardiac catheterization and angiography is a reasonable approach in most patients

Noninvasive risk assessment in survivors of AMI can effectively subdivide patients into groups with differing risk profiles after hospital discharge, but some patients at risk for late death or recurrent AMI may be incorrectly identified; data from cardiac catheterization and angiography provide complementary and generally more powerful prognostic information. Many patients may derive particular benefit from early cardiac catheterization and angiography, including: (1) patients with AMI complicated by recurrent myocardial ischemia, congestive heart failure, and/or complex ventricular arrhythmias; (2) patients with abnormal or inconclusive results of noninvasive testing or those patients unable to perform an exercise test; (3) patients with abnormal left ventricular global systolic function and those with increased left ventricular end-systolic volume; (4) "young" patients (younger than 50 years of age?); (5) older patients (older than 65 to 70 years of age?); (6) patients with non-Q wave AMI; and (7) patients who are receiving thrombolytic therapy. Performance of early cardiac catheterization and angiography in virtually all survivors of AMI, with selective use of appropriate noninvasive tests, may provide a more efficacious means of risk assessment after AMI; if all tests are performed judiciously, the cost of such an approach need not be excessive. A combination of invasive and selected noninvasive tests probably provides optimal information. The risks to the routine performance of diagnostic cardiac catheterization and angiography in all survivors of AMI are: (1) adequate care and attention may not be paid to proper performance of the procedure(s) and to detailed and proper analyses of the data; (2) the need for additional noninvasive testing in selected patients may be ignored; and most importantly, (3) premature or unnecessary revascularization procedures may be performed subsequently. For optimal patient care, the clinician must obtain all necessary data, avoid unnecessary and repetitive tests, know the accuracy of individual tests at his or her own facility, interpret all data in proper context, and then counsel patients objectively about available management strategies. With this approach, all patients who might appropriately benefit from coronary artery revascularization will be correctly identified, and patients who are truly at very low risk (minimal residual coronary artery disease and preserved left ventricular function particularly if associated with a patent infarct-related artery) may be similarly identified and managed appropriately with elimination of unnecessary additional testing and pharmacologic therapy. Finally, whatever approach to risk stratification one chooses for an individual patient, the importance of and the need to correct and/or ameliorate risk factors for coronary artery disease must be recognized and undertaken.

Outlook after acute myocardial infarction in the very elderly compared with that in patients aged 65 to 75 years

Little is known concerning late outcome and prognostic factors after acute myocardial infarction in the very elderly (greater than 75 years of age). Accordingly, this study compared the clinical course and mortality rate for up to 1 year in a large multicenter data base that included 702 patients greater than 75 years of age (mean +/- SD 81 +/- 4 years), with a less elderly subset of 1,321 patients between 65 and 75 years of age (mean 70 +/- 3 years). The postdischarge 1 year cardiac mortality rate was 17.6% for those greater than 75 years of age compared with 12.0% for patients between 65 and 75 years of age (p less than 0.01). There were differences in the prevalence of several factors, including female gender, history of angina pectoris, history of congestive heart failure, smoking habits and incidence of congestive heart failure during hospitalization. Multivariate analyses of predictors of cardiac death in hospital survivors selected different factors as important in the two age subgroups; age was selected in the 65 to 75 year age group but was not an independent predictor in the very elderly. The survival curves beginning at day 10 for patients 65 to 75 and in those greater than 75 years old were similar for up to 90 days but diverged later. In the very elderly, 63% of late cardiac deaths were sudden or due to new myocardial infarction, similar to the causes of 67% of deaths in the younger age group.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Does the rest electrocardiogram after myocardial infarction determine the predictive value of exercise-induced ST depression? A 2 year follow-up study in a veteran population

The failure of exercise-induced ST segment depression to consistently predict prognosis in patients after myocardial infarction could be a result of population differences and the rest electrocardiogram (ECG). These hypotheses were tested by studying 198 veterans who survived a myocardial infarction, underwent a submaximal predischarge treadmill exercise test and were followed up for cardiac events for 2 years. During the 2 years, 29 deaths, 19 reinfarctions and 28 revascularization procedures were documented. The prevalence of death or reinfarction was two times higher in patients who had exercise-induced ST depression than in patients who did not. However, in the 55 patients without Q waves, the risk increased to 11 times for an abnormal ST response. These findings suggest that exercise-induced ST depression only predicts high risk in patients after myocardial infarction whose ECG at rest does not exhibit Q waves and that differences in the prevalence of rest ECG patterns are the most likely explanation for the failure of agreement among prior studies.