Heart Rate Turbulence Is a Powerful Predictor of Cardiac Death and Ventricular Arrhythmias in Postmyocardial Infarction and Heart Failure Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Seattle proportional risk model in GISSI-HF: Estimated benefit of ICD in patients with EF less than 50

BACKGROUND

The Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM) estimates the proportion of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in heart failure (HF) patients, identifying those most likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy (those with ≥50% estimated proportion of SCD). The GISSI-HF trial tested fish oil and rosuvastatin in HF patients. We used the SPRM to evaluate its accuracy in this cohort in predicting potential ICD benefit in patients with EF ≤50% and an SPRM-predicted proportion of SCD either ≥50% or <50%.

METHODS

The SPRM was estimated in patients with EF ≤50% and in a logistic regression model comparing SCD with non-SCD.

RESULTS

We evaluated 6,750 patients with EF ≤50%. There were 1,892 all-cause deaths, including 610 SCDs. Fifty percent of EF ≤35% patients and 43% with EF 36% to 50% had an SPRM of ≥50%. The SPRM (OR: 1.92, P < 0.0001) accurately predicted the risk of SCD vs non-SCD with an estimated proportion of SCD of 44% vs the observed proportion of 41% at 1 year. By traditional criteria for ICD implantation (EF ≤35%, NYHA class II or III), 64.5% of GISSI-HF patients would be eligible, with an estimated ICD benefit of 0.81. By SPRM >50%, 47.8% may be eligible, including 30.2% with EF >35%. GISSI-HF participants with EF ≤35% with SPRM ≥50% had an estimated ICD HR of 0.64, comparable to patients with EF 36% to 50% with SPRM ≥50% (HR: 0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

The SPRM discriminated SCD vs non-SCD in GISSI-HF, both in patients with EF ≤35% and with EF 36% to 50%. The comparable estimated ICD benefit in patients with EF ≤35% and EF 36% to 50% supports the use of a proportional risk model for shared decision making with patients being considered for primary prevention ICD therapy.

Heart rate turbulence in acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Heart rate turbulence (HRT), an ECG-based marker of autonomic cardiac regulation, has shown high prognostic value in patients with established cardiovascular diseases, while data in patients with acute ischemic stroke are scarce.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The HRT parameters turbulence onset and turbulence slope were analyzed using Holter-ECG recordings from patients with acute ischemic stroke, consecutively enrolled in the prospective observational HEBRAS study. HRT was categorized as normal (category 0; both parameters normal), abnormal (category 1; one parameter abnormal), or severely abnormal (category 2; both parameters abnormal). Outcomes of interest were functional outcome according to modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3 months, mortality at 1 year, newly detected atrial fibrillation (AF), and evidence of focal myocardial fibrosis on cardiovascular MRI.

RESULTS

HRT was assessed in 335 patients in sinus rhythm (median age 69 years, 37% female, median NIHSS score 2 on admission), including 262 (78%) with normal HRT, 47 (14%) with abnormal and 26 (8%) with severely abnormal HRT. Compared with normal HRT, severely abnormal HRT was associated with increased disability [higher mRS] at 3 months (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3-6.6), new AF (aOR: 3.5, 95% CI: 1.1-10.6), MRI-detected myocardial fibrosis (aOR: 5.8, 95% CI: 1.3-25.9), but not with mortality at 1 year after stroke (aOR: 3.0, 95% CI: 0.7-13.9). Abnormal HRT was not associated with the analyzed outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Severely abnormal HRT was associated with increased disability and previously unknown cardiac comorbidities. The potential role of HRT in selecting patients for extended AF monitoring and cardiac imaging should be further investigated.

Non-Invasive Risk Assessment and Prediction of Mortality in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Objectives: Heart rate turbulence (HRT) and T-wave alternans (TWA), non-invasive markers of cardiac autonomic dysfunction, and ventricular repolarization abnormality, reportedly, predict the risk of cardiovascular death after myocardial infarction. We investigated whether pre-operative assessment of HRT and/or TWA could predict long-term mortality following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Methods: From May 2010 to December 2017, patients undergoing elective CABG and receiving 24 h ambulatory electrocardiogram monitoring 1 to 5 days prior to CABG surgery were prospectively enrolled. Pre-operative HRT and TWA were measured using a 24 h ambulatory electrocardiogram. The relative risk of cardiac or overall death was assessed according to abnormalities of HRT, TWA, or left ventricular ejection fraction (LV EF). Results: During the mean follow-up period of 4.6 ± 3.9 years, 40 adjudicated overall (5.9%/yr) and 5 cardiac deaths (0.9%/yr) occurred in 146 enrolled patients (64.9 ± 9.3 years; 108 males). Patients with abnormal HRT exhibited significantly higher relative risks of cardiac death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 24.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46-427) and all-cause death (adjusted HR 5.77, 95% CI 2.34-14.2) compared to those with normal HRT. Moreover, abnormal HRT plus abnormal TWA and LV EF < 50% was associated with a greater elevation in cardiac and overall mortality risk. The predictive role of abnormal HRT with/without abnormal TWA for all-cause death was likely more prominent in patients with mildly reduced (35 to 50%) or preserved (≥50%) LV EF. Abnormal HRT plus abnormal TWA and LV EF < 50% showed high negative predictive value in cardiac and overall mortality risk. Conclusions: Assessment of pre-operative HRT and/or TWA predicted mortality risk in patients undergoing elective CABG. Combined analysis of HRT, TWA, and LVEF enhanced the prognostic power. In particular, the predictive value of HRT was enhanced in patients with preserved or mid-range LV EF.

Effects of Home-Based Exercise Training on Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy and Metabolic Profile in Diabetic Hemodialysis Patients

Background: This study aimed to investigate the effects of a home-based exercise training program on Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy (CAN) and metabolic profile in Diabetic Kidney Disease (DKD) patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (HD). Method: Twenty-eight DKD patients undergoing hemodialysis were randomly assigned into two groups. The exercise (EX) group followed a 6-month combined exercise training program at home, while the control (CO) group remained untrained. All participants at baseline and the end of the study underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET), biochemical tests for glucose and lipid profile, and 24-h electrocardiographic monitoring for heart rate variability (HRV) analysis and heart rate turbulence (HRT). Results: At the end of the study, compared to the CO, the EX group showed a significant increase in serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL) by 27.7% (p = 0.01), peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) by 9.3% (p < 0.05), the standard deviation of R-R intervals (SDNN) by 34.3% (p = 0.03), percentage of successive RR intervals higher than 50ms (pNN50) by 51.1% (p = 0.02), turbulence slope (TS) index by 18.4% (p = 0.01), and decrease in (glycated hemoglobin) HbA1c by 12.5% (p = 0.04) and low-frequency power LF (ms2) by 29.7% (p = 0.01). Linear regression analysis after training showed that VO2peak was correlated with SDNN (r = 0.55, p = 0.03) and HF (r = 0.72, p = 0.02). Multiple regression analysis indicated that the improvement of sympathovagal balance and aerobic capacity depended on patients’ participation in exercise training. Conclusion: In conclusion, a 6-month home-based mixed-type exercise program can improve cardiac autonomic function and metabolic profile in DKD patients on HD.

Heart rate: control mechanisms, pathophysiology and assessment of the neurocardiac system in health and disease

The monitoring of physiological function and dysfunction is an important principle in modern medicine. Heart rate is a basic example of this type of observation, particularly assessing the neurocardiac system, which entails the autonomic nervous system and intracardiac processes. The neurocardiac axis is an underappreciated and often overlooked system which, if measured appropriately in the clinical setting, may allow identification of patients at risk of disease progression and even mortality. While heart rate itself is a simplistic tool, more information may be gathered through assessing heart rate variability and heart rate recovery time. Studies have demonstrated an association of slow heart rate recovery and lower heart rate variability as markers of elevated sympathetic and lower parasympathetic tone. These parameters have additionally been shown to relate to development of arrhythmia, heart failure, systemic inflammatory processes, ischaemic heart disease and an increased rate of mortality. The aim of this review is to detail how heart rate is homeostatically controlled by the autonomic nervous system, how heart rate can impact on pathophysiological processes, and how heart rate variability and heart rate recovery time may be used in the clinical setting to allow the neurocardiac system to be assessed.

Heart rate turbulence assessed through ergometry after myocardial infarction: a feasibility study

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease is an important cause of morbidity and mortality. The impact of ventricular arrhythmias with impaired cardiac vagal activity is one of the most recently studied prognostic factors. However, there are no studies evaluating the phenomenon of heart rate turbulence (HRT) during physical exertion.

OBJECTIVE

To study the behavior of HRT during exercise testing, among individuals after myocardial infarction.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Feasibility study conducted in a university hospital among individuals 4-6 weeks after myocardial infarction.

METHODS

All subjects underwent 24-hour Holter monitoring and ergometric stress testing. We considered that abnormal HRT was present if the turbulence onset was ≥ 0% or turbulence slope was ≤ 2.5 mm/relative risk interval.

RESULTS

All 32 subjects were asymptomatic. Their median age was 58 years (interquartile range 12.8) and 70% were male. Abnormal HRT was associated with ventricular dysfunction in this population. We found no differences regarding the behavior of HRT, in relation to age, gender, smoking, systemic arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus or dyslipidemia. Ergometric stress testing detected premature ventricular beats (PVB) in approximately 44% of the examinations, and these occurred both during the active phase of effort and in the recovery period. The low occurrence of several isolated PVB in beta-blocked subjects made it difficult to perform statistical analysis to correlate HRT between ergometric and Holter testing.

CONCLUSION

The data obtained in this study do not support performing HRT through ergometric stress testing among patients who remain on beta-blockers post-myocardial infarction, for the purpose of assessing cardiac vagal activity.

Comparability of Heart Rate Turbulence Methodology: 15 Intervals Suffice to Calculate Turbulence Slope – A Methodological Analysis Using PhysioNet Data of 1074 Patients

Heart rate turbulence (HRT) is a characteristic heart rate pattern triggered by a ventricular premature contraction (VPC). It can be used to assess autonomic function and health risk for various conditions, e.g., coronary artery disease or cardiomyopathy. While comparability is essential for scientific analysis, especially for research focusing on clinical application, the methodology of HRT still varies widely in the literature. Particularly, the ECG measurement and parameter calculation of HRT differs, including the calculation of turbulence slope (TS). In this article, we focus on common variations in the number of intervals after the VPC that are used to calculate TS (#TSRR) posing two questions: 1) Does a change in #TSRR introduce noticeable changes in HRT parameter values and classification? and 2) Do larger values of turbulence timing (TT) enabled by a larger #TSRR still represent distinct HRT? We compiled a free-access data set of 1,080 annotated long-term ECGs provided by Physionet. HRT parameter values and risk classes were determined both with #TSRR 15 and 20. A standard local tachogram was created by averaging the tachograms of only the files with the best heart rate variability values. The shape of this standard VPC sequence was compared to all VPC sequences grouped by their TT value using dynamic time warping (DTW) in order to identify HRT shapes. When calculated with different #TSRR, our results show only a little difference between the number of files with enough valid VPC sequences to calculate HRT (<1%) and files with different risk classes (5 and 6% for HRT0-2 and HRTA-C, respectively). In the DTW analysis, the difference between averaged sequences with a specific TT and the standard sequence increased with increasing TT. Our analysis suggests that HRT occurs in the early intervals after the VPC and TS calculated from late intervals reflects common heart rate variability rather than a distinct response to the VPC. Even though the differences in classification are marginal, this can lead to problems in clinical application and scientific research. Therefore, we recommend uniformly using #TSRR 15 in HRT analysis.

Contemporary etiology and prognosis of dilated non-ischemic cardiomyopathy

INTRODUCTION

Non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NI-DCM) represents a specific etiology of systolic heart failure that usually affect young individuals with a genetic background in up to 40% of cases. Behind the term NI-DCM there is a spectrum of different diseases, and an accurate etiological classification appears pivotal for the clinical management and prognostic stratification of these patients.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

In the last years the prognosis of NI-DCM patients dramatically improved thanks to the progresses in medical treatment/ device therapy and earlier diagnosis especially in familial context. In this review we summarize the actual state of art in the management of these patients.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

In the era of precision medicine, a lot of progresses have been made to expand our knowledge on the management of NI-DCM patients. A complex interaction between genotype and external triggers is the main determinant of the clinical phenotype in NI-DCM, and a lot of efforts must be done by clinicians to systematically rule out all the possible causes involved in the pathogenesis. Progresses in cardiac imaging and familial screening led us to detect subtle abnormalities in the initial phase of the disease and also helped us to furtherly stratify the prognosis and arrhythmic risk of these patients. It is plausible that a more precise etiological classification will be needed in the near future.

CONCLUSIONS

NI-DCM contains a spectrum of different diseases. Proper etiological classification, early diagnosis and strict follow-up are essential to tailor care of these patients.

Electrophysiological Mechanisms Underlying T-Wave Alternans and Their Role in Arrhythmogenesis

T-wave alternans (TWA) reflects every-other-beat alterations in the morphology of the electrocardiogram ST segment or T wave in the setting of a constant heart rate, hence, in the absence of heart rate variability. It is believed to be associated with the dispersion of repolarization and has been used as a non-invasive marker for predicting the risk of malignant cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death as numerous studies have shown. This review aims to provide up-to-date review on both experimental and simulation studies in elucidating possible mechanisms underlying the genesis of TWA at the cellular level, as well as the genesis of spatially concordant/discordant alternans at the tissue level, and their transition to cardiac arrhythmia. Recent progress and future perspectives in antiarrhythmic therapies associated with TWA are also discussed.

Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Therapy in Heart Failure with Recovered Ejection Fraction

Given recent advances in both pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic strategies for improving outcomes related to chronic systolic heart failure, heart failure with recovered ejection fraction (HFrecEF) is now recognized as a distinct clinical entity with increasing prevalence. In many patients who once had an indication for active implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy, questions remain regarding the usefulness of this primary prevention strategy to protect against syncope and cardiac arrest after they have achieved myocardial recovery. Early, small studies provide convincing evidence for continued guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) in segments of the HFrecEF population to promote persistent left ventricular myocardial recovery. Retrospective data suggest that the risk of sudden cardiac death is lower, but still present, in HFrecEF as compared with HF with reduced ejection fraction, with reports of up to 5 appropriate ICD therapies delivered per 100 patient-years. The usefulness of continued ICD therapy is weighed against the unfavorable effects of this strategy, which include a cumulative risk of infection, inappropriate discharge, and patient-level anxiety. Historically, many surrogate measures for risk stratification have been explored, but few have demonstrated efficacy and widespread availability. We found that the available data to inform decisions surrounding the continued use of active ICD therapies in this population are incomplete, and more advanced tools such as genetic testing, evaluation of high-risk structural cardiomyopathies (such as noncompaction), and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging have emerged as vital in risk stratification. Clinicians and patients should engage in shared decision-making to evaluate the appropriateness of active ICD therapy for any given individual. In this article, we explore the definition of HFrecEF, data underlying continuation of guideline-directed medical therapy in patients who have achieved left ventricular ejection fraction recovery, the benefits and risks of active ICD therapy, and surrogate measures that may have a role in risk stratification.

Heart rate variability analysis in horses for the diagnosis of arrhythmias

Heart rate variability (HRV) analysis has been performed on ECG-derived data sets for more than 170 years but is currently undergoing a rapid evolution, thanks to the expansion of the human and veterinary medical technology sector. Traditional HRV analysis was initially performed to identify changes in vago-sympathetic balance, while the most recent focus has expanded to include the use of complex computer algorithms, neural networks and machine learning technology to identify cardiac arrhythmias, particularly atrial fibrillation (AF). Some of these techniques have recently been translated for use in the field of equine cardiology, with particular focus on improving the diagnosis of arrhythmias both at rest and during exercise. This review focuses on understanding the basic HRV variables and important factors to consider when collecting data for use in HRV analysis. In addition, the use of HRV analysis for the diagnosis of arrhythmias is discussed from human, small animal and equine perspectives. Finally, the future of HRV analysis is briefly introduced, including an overview of future developments in this rapidly expanding and exciting field.

Current challenges in sudden cardiac death prevention

Ischemic heart disease and non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy are the most common causes of arrhythmic sudden cardiac death (SCD). Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapy is the only strategy that proved to be effective in preventing SCD in high-risk individuals while the role of antiarrhythmic drugs is limited to symptoms relief. Current guidelines recommend selecting candidates to ICD implantation based on etiology, symptoms of heart failure (NYHA class), and severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction, but these parameters are neither sensitive nor specific. The review addresses the mechanisms of SCD in patients with heart failure of either ischemic or non-ischemic etiology, risk stratification, and strategies for prevention of SCD in the clinical practice (including optimization of heart failure therapy, avoidance of triggering factors, antiarrhythmic drugs, ICD therapy, early resuscitation, and public access defibrillators).

Combined evaluation of ambulatory-based late potentials and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia to predict arrhythmic events in patients with previous myocardial infarction: A Japanese noninvasive electrocardiographic risk stratification of sudden cardiac death (JANIES) substudy

Background

Noninvasive electrocardiographic (ECG) markers are promising arrhythmic risk stratification tools for identifying sudden cardiac death. However, little is known about the usefulness of noninvasive ECG markers derived from ambulatory ECGs (AECG) in patients with previous myocardial infarction (pMI). We aimed to determine whether the ECG markers derived from AECG can predict serious cardiac events in patients with pMI.

Methods

We prospectively analyzed 104 patients with pMI (88 males, age 66 ± 11 years), evaluating late potentials (LPs), heart rate turbulence, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) derived from AECG. The primary endpoint was the documentation of ventricular fibrillation or sustained ventricular tachycardia.

Results

Eleven patients reached the primary endpoint during a follow‐up period of 25 ± 9.5 months. Of the 104 patients enrolled in this study, LP positive in worst values (w‐LPs) and NSVT were observed in 25 patients, respectively. In the arrhythmic event group, the worst LP values and/or NSVT were found in eight patients (7.6%). The positive predictive and negative predictive values of the combined assessment with w‐LPs and NSVT were 56% and 94%, respectively, for predicting ventricular lethal arrhythmia. Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated that the combination of w‐LPs and NSVT had a poorer event‐free period than negative LPs (p < .0001). In the multivariate analysis, the combined assessment of w‐LPs and NSVT was a significant predictor of arrhythmic events (hazard ratio = 14.1, 95% confidence intervals: 3.4–58.9, p < .0001).

Conclusion

Combined evaluation of w‐LPs and NSVT was a powerful risk stratification strategy for predicting arrhythmia that can lead to sudden cardiac death in patients with pMI.

Repeating noninvasive risk stratification improves prediction of outcome in ICD patients

Background

Noninvasive risk stratification aims to detect abnormalities in the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying ventricular arrhythmias. We studied the predictive value of repeating risk stratification in patients with an implantable cardioverter‐defibrillator (ICD).

Methods

The EUTrigTreat clinical study was a prospective multicenter trial including ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathies and arrhythmogenic heart disease. Left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% (LVEF), premature ventricular complexes >400/24 hr (PVC), non‐negative microvolt T‐wave alternans (MTWA), and abnormal heart rate turbulence (HRT) were considered high risk. Tests were repeated within 12 months after inclusion. Adjusted Cox regression analysis was performed for mortality and appropriate ICD shocks.

Results

In total, 635 patients had analyzable baseline data with a median follow‐up of 4.4 years. Worsening of LVEF was associated with increased mortality (HR 3.59, 95% CI 1.17–11.04), as was consistent abnormal HRT (HR 8.34, 95%CI 1.06–65.54). HRT improvement was associated with improved survival when compared to consistent abnormal HRT (HR 0.10, 95%CI 0.01–0.82). For appropriate ICD shocks, a non‐negative MTWA test or high PVC count at any moment was associated with increased arrhythmic risk independent of the evolution of test results (worsening: HR 3.76 (95%CI 1.43–9.88) and HR 2.50 (95%CI 1.15–5.46); improvement: HR 2.80 (95%CI 1.03–7.61) and HR 2.45 (95%CI 1.07–5.62); consistent: HR 2.47 (95%CI 0.95–6.45) and HR 2.40 (95%CI 1.33–4.33), respectively). LVEF improvement was associated with a lower arrhythmic risk (HR 0.34, 95%CI 0.12–0.94).

Conclusions

Repeating LVEF and HRT improved the prediction of mortality, whereas stratification of ventricular arrhythmias may be improved by repeating LVEF measurements, MTWA and ECG Holter monitoring.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea as a Predictor of Abnormal Heart Rate Turbulence

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) causes dysfunction of the autonomic nervous system, but the exact mechanism has not been fully understood. The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between the incidence and severity of OSA and heart rate turbulence (HRT). Seventy one patients with clinical suspicion of OSA were qualified to participate in the study. All participants took part in a survey and were subjected to laboratory tests, 24-hour electrocardiogram (ECG) Holter monitoring with HRT analysis and polysomnography. The group with OSA manifested significantly higher turbulence onset (TO) and lower turbulence slope (TS) as compared to the group without OSA. Older age, diabetes, hypertension and higher apnea/hypopnea index (AHI) were found to be independent risk factors for increased TO, whereas older age, higher body mass index (BMI), higher blood glucose levels, hypertension and higher AHI were independent risk factors for TS reduction. The AHI ≥65 criterion indicates abnormal HRT in patients with OSA with 94.9% sensitivity and 50.0% specificity, which gives a prediction accuracy of 85.7%. In summary, OSA should be considered as a predictor of abnormal HRT.

Risk stratification for cardiac mortality using electrocardiographic markers based on 24-hour Holter recordings: the JANIES-SHD study

BACKGROUND

Recent guidelines have stated that left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is the gold standard marker for identifying patients at risk for cardiac mortality. However, little information is present regarding electrocardiographic (ECG) markers. This study aimed to assess ECG markers for predicting mortality or serious arrhythmia in patients with structural heart disease (SHD).

METHODS

In total, 1829 patients were enrolled into the Japanese Multicenter Observational Prospective Study (JANIES study). In this study, we analyzed data of 719 patients (569 men, age 64 ± 13 years) with SHD including mainly ischemic heart disease (65.8%). As ECG markers based on 24-hour Holter recordings, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT), ventricular late potentials, and heart rate turbulence (HRT) were assessed. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoint was fatal arrhythmic events.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 21 ± 11 months, all-cause mortality was eventually observed in 39 patients (5.4%). Among those patients, 32 patients (82%) suffered from cardiac causes such as heart failure and arrhythmia. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that after adjustment for age and LVEF, documented NSVT [hazard ratio = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-5.18, p = 0.02] and abnormal HRT (hazard ratio = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.16-4.93, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with the primary endpoint. These two ECG markers also had significant predictive values with the secondary endpoint. The combined assessment of two ECG markers improved predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that combined assessment of documented NSVT and abnormal HRT based on 24-hour Holter ECG recordings are recommended for predicting future serious events in this population.

Phase Relation between Depolarization and Repolarization Alternans in ECG

T-Wave Alternans (TWA) in the electro cardiogram (ECG) has been widely investigated as a potential predictor of ventricular arrhythmia. However, large clinical trials show that TWA has a high negative predictive value (NPV) but poor positive predictive value (PPV). Therefore, there is need for exploration of approaches to improve PPV of TWA. More recent studies suggest that whether alternans is spatially concordant or discordant affects arrhythmic potential. Results of our previous animal and simulation studies show that the phase relation between depolarization and repolarization alternans has an effect on the transition of concordant to discordant alternans. Towards the eventual goal of developing indexes that complement TWA and improve prediction of arrhythmia, the objectives in this study were to verify the existence of R wave amplitude alternans (RWAA, a surrogate of depolarization alternans) and investigate the phase relationship between RWAA and TWA in clinical grade ECGs. Results show that RWAA does occur in ECGs and that the phase relationship between RWAA and TWA can be labile. These results support further investigation of the co-occurrence of these alternans for prediction of arrhythmic events.

Combining noninvasive risk stratification parameters improves the prediction of mortality and appropriate ICD shocks

BACKGROUND

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) results from a complex interplay of abnormalities in autonomic function, myocardial substrate and vulnerability. We studied whether a combination of noninvasive risk stratification tests reflecting these key players could improve risk stratification.

METHODS

Patients implanted with an ICD in whom 24-hr holter recordings were available prior to implant were included. QRS fragmentation (fQRS) was selected as measure of myocardial substrate and a high ventricular premature beat count (VPB >10/hr) for arrhythmic vulnerability. From receiver operating characteristics analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), turbulence slope, and deceleration capacity were selected for autonomic function. Adjusted Cox regression analysis with comparison of C-statistics was performed to predict first appropriate shock (AS) and total mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 220 patients were included in the analysis with an overall follow-up of 4.3 ± 3.1 years. A model including VPB >10/hr, inferior fQRS, and abnormal nonedited DFA was the best for prediction of AS after 1 year of follow-up with a trends toward improvement of the C-statistics compared to baseline (p = 0.055). The risk increased significantly with every abnormal test (HR 1.793, 95%CI 1.255-2.564). A model including fQRS in any region and abnormal edited DFA was the best for prediction of mortality after 3 years of follow-up with significant improvement of the C-statistics (p = 0.023). Each abnormal test was associated with a significant increase in mortality (HR 5.069, 95%CI 1.978-12.994).

CONCLUSION

Combining noninvasive risk stratification tests according to their physiological background can improve the risk prediction of SCD and mortality.

Fractal analysis of heart rate variability as a predictor of mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Previous studies have suggested benefits of applying fractal analysis to intervals between R waves in electrocardiography as an additional prognostic marker. The aim of this study was to investigate whether fractal analysis can provide an independent predictor of cardiac mortality or all-cause mortality. Prognostic cohort studies reporting fractal heart rate variability results from 24-h Holter monitor recordings were selected for comparison. Populations were subdivided into four groups-post-myocardial infarction, left ventricular dysfunction, other cardiac, and non-cardiac patients-and analysed using ANOVA, Forest plots (using pooled mean difference), and Funnel plots. The most significant mean differences were recorded in short-term fractal self-similarity (α₁) (-0.17, 95% CI [-0.21, -0.13], p < 0.00001) and the traditional measure called standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) (-13.31, 95% CI [-18.89, -7.73], p < 0.00001) between the deceased and survivor groups. Fractal measures of long-term fractal self-similarity (α₂), 1/f scaling (β), and traditional heart rate variability measures of high frequency to low frequency ratio show promise. This review indicated that fractal measure α₁ and traditional measure SDNN could be potential predictors of mortality, but require further assessment to determine appropriate thresholds for clinical significance and additional targeted prognostic studies to properly define their applicability as prognostic markers. Therefore, clinicians should interpret fractal and traditional measures with caution since such measures have yet to be fully described as biomarkers for clinical application.

Ventricular tachycardia-inducibility predicts arrhythmic events in post-myocardial infarction patients with low ejection fraction. A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Inducibility of ventricular arrhythmias at electrophysiological study (EPS) has long been suggested as predictive for subsequent arrhythmic events. Nevertheless, the usefulness of EPS in the clinical practice is still unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the predictive power of EPS in primary prevention of ventricular arrhythmias in post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients with left ventricular dysfunction.

Methods

MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library databases were systematically searched to identify studies, which analyzed EPS predictive value in post-MI patients with mean EF < 40% for the composite arrhythmic endpoint defined by: sudden cardiac death (SCD), aborted SCD, ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF), appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) interventions.

Results

Nine studies, evaluating 3959 patients with 647 arrhythmic events, were included in the meta-analyses. EPS showed a strong predictive power for the arrhythmic endpoint with a pooled odds ratio (OR) of 4.00 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.30–6.96) in the whole set of studies, albeit a high level of heterogeneity among studies. EPS predictive power was higher in studies where VT-inducibility was tested (OR 6.52; 95% CI: 2.30–18.44; sensitivity 0.65, specificity 0.78, and negative predictive value 0.94), versus those assessing VT/VF-inducibility (OR 2.09; 95% CI: 1.34–3.26). VT-inducibility was predictive even when assessed within one month after MI (OR 7.85; 95% CI: 3.67–16.80).

Conclusions

Inducibility of ventricular arrhythmias at EPS is a strong predictor of the arrhythmic endpoint in post-MI patients with impaired EF, particularly when VT-inducibility is tested. EPS could help selecting the patients who can mostly benefit from ICD therapy.

Sudden Cardiac Death: Lessons Learned from Cardiac Implantable Rhythm Devices

Trials have demonstrated that implantable-cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) are effective in preventing sudden cardiac death (SCD). The degree of left ventricular dysfunction is the only parameter to identify primary prevention populations at higher risk of SCD in which ICDs may reduce longitudinal mortality risk. Clinical application of current stratification approaches based on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) alone has failed to prevent most SCD in the general population. This lack of specificity has resulted in a significant number of potentially unnecessary ICDs. Future studies should focus on newer risk markers to improve the predictive value of LVEF and SCD prevention.

Myocardial fibrosis predicts ventricular tachyarrhythmias

Myocardial fibrosis is a common pattern in the setting of different heart diseases, and promotes ventricular tachyarrhythmias by creating a vulnerable substrate for reentrant activity and by favoring the emergence of triggers. Currently, late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiac magnetic resonance is considered the reference method for the noninvasive assessment of ventricular fibrosis. Several studies and meta-analyses have shown that ventricular fibrosis detected by LGE is a powerful predictor of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events in ischemic, non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy patients. Both the presence and extension of ventricular fibrosis were shown to correlate with the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death, irrespective of the grade of left ventricular dysfunction. Based on these results, the assessment of ventricular fibrosis has been suggested as a candidate marker to improve the decision making for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy in patients with left ventricular dysfunction. These points will be discussed in the review.