ACUTE Heart Failure Risk Stratification

Evaluating the prognostic value of systemic immune-inflammatory index in patients with acute decompensated heart failure

AIMS

The value of the systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) in assessing adverse outcomes in various cardiovascular diseases has been extensively discussed. This study aims to evaluate the predictive value and risk stratification ability of SII for 30 day mortality in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).

METHODS

This analysis included 1452 patients hospitalized for ADHF, all the participants being part of the China Jiangxi-acute decompensated heart failure1 project. The risk stratification capability of the SII in patients with ADHF, as well as its correlation with the 30 day mortality risk among ADHF patients, was evaluated utilizing Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression models. A restricted cubic spline was employed to model the dose-response relationship between the two, and the receiver operating characteristic curve was utilized to assess the predictive ability of SII for 30 day mortality.

RESULTS

The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the risk of mortality in the high SII group (SII ≥ 980 × 109/L) was significantly greater than that in the low SII group (SII < 980 × 109/L, log-rank P < 0.001). After adjusting for various confounding factors, a higher SII was associated with an increased risk of 30 day mortality in ADHF patients [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34-3.08]. Further restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a non-linear dose-response relationship between the two (P for non-linear = 0.006). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that SII had a high accuracy in predicting 30 day mortality events in ADHF patients (AUC = 0.7479), and the optimal predictive threshold was calculated to be 980 × 109/L, a sensitivity of 0.7547 and a specificity of 0.7234.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found a significant positive association between SII and 30 day all-cause mortality in ADHF patients. We determined the SII cut-off point for predicting 30 day all-cause mortality in patients with ADHF to be 980 × 109/L.

Predicting One-Year Mortality after Discharge Using Acute Heart Failure Score (AHFS)

Background: Acute heart failure (AHF) represents a leading cause of unscheduled hospital stays, frequent rehospitalisations, and mortality worldwide. The aim of our study was to develop a bedside prognostic tool, a multivariable predictive risk score, that is useful in daily practice, thus providing an early prognostic evaluation at admission and an accurate risk stratification after discharge in patients with AHF. Methods: This study is a subanalysis of the STADE HF study, which is a single-centre, prospective, randomised controlled trial enrolling 123 patients admitted to hospital for AHF. Here, 117 patients were included in the analysis, due to data exhaustivity. Regression analysis was performed to determine predictive variables for one-year mortality and/or rehospitalisation after discharge. Results: During the first year after discharge, 23 patients died. After modellisation, the variables considered to be of prognostic relevance in terms of mortality were (1) non-ischaemic aetiology of HF, (2) elevated creatinine levels at admission, (3) moderate/severe mitral regurgitation, and (4) prior HF hospitalisation. We designed a linear model based on these four independent predictive variables, and it showed a good ability to score and predict patient mortality with an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76-0.92), thus denoting a high discriminative ability. A risk score equation was developed. During the first year after discharge, we observed as well that 41 patients died or were rehospitalised; hence, while searching for a model that could predict worsening health conditions (i.e., death and/or rehospitalisation), only two predictive variables were identified: non-ischaemic HF aetiology and previous HF hospitalisation (also included in the one-year mortality model). This second modellisation showed a more discrete discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.67 (95% C.I. 0.59-0.77). Conclusions: The proposed risk score and model, based on readily available predictive variables, are promising and useful tools to assess, respectively, the one-year mortality risk and the one-year mortality and/or rehospitalisations in patients hospitalised for AHF and to assist clinicians in the management of patients with HF aiming at improving their prognosis.

Short-Stay Units vs Routine Admission From the Emergency Department in Patients With Acute Heart Failure: The SSU-AHF Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

More than 80% of patients who present to the emergency department (ED) with acute heart failure (AHF) are hospitalized. With more than 1 million annual hospitalizations for AHF in the US, safe and effective alternatives are needed. Care for AHF in short-stay units (SSUs) may be safe and more efficient than hospitalization, especially for lower-risk patients, but randomized clinical trial data are lacking.

Objective

To compare the effectiveness of SSU care vs hospitalization in lower-risk patients with AHF.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This multicenter randomized clinical trial randomly assigned low-risk patients with AHF 1:1 to SSU or hospital admission from the ED. Patients received follow-up at 30 and 90 days post discharge. The study began December 6, 2017, and was completed on July 22, 2021. The data were analyzed between March 27, 2020, and November 11, 2023.

Intervention

Randomized post-ED disposition to less than 24 hours of SSU care vs hospitalization.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The study was designed to detect at least 1-day superiority for a primary outcome of days alive and out of hospital (DAOOH) at 30-day follow-up for 534 participants, with an allowance of 10% participant attrition. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, enrollment was truncated at 194 participants. Before unmasking, the primary outcome was changed from DAOOH to an outcome with adequate statistical power: quality of life as measured by the 12-item Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ-12). The KCCQ-12 scores range from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating better quality of life.

Results

Of the 193 patients enrolled (1 was found ineligible after randomization), the mean (SD) age was 64.8 (14.8) years, 79 (40.9%) were women, and 114 (59.1%) were men. Baseline characteristics were balanced between arms. The mean (SD) KCCQ-12 summary score between the SSU and hospitalization arms at 30 days was 51.3 (25.7) vs 45.8 (23.8) points, respectively (P = .19). Participants in the SSU arm had 1.6 more DAOOH at 30-day follow-up than those in the hospitalization arm (median [IQR], 26.9 [24.4-28.8] vs 25.4 [22.0-27.7] days; P = .02). Adverse events were uncommon and similar in both arms.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings show that the SSU strategy was no different than hospitalization with regard to KCCQ-12 score, superior for more DAOOH, and safe for lower-risk patients with AHF. These findings of lower health care utilization with the SSU strategy need to be definitively tested in an adequately powered study.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03302910.

What are the Data for Current Prognostic Tools Used to Determine the Risk of Short-Term Adverse Events in Patients with Acute Heart Failure?

BACKGROUND

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a common condition evaluated in the emergency department (ED). Patients may present with a wide range of signs and symptoms, comorbidities, exacerbating factors, and ability to follow-up. Having a decision tool to objectively assess the risk of near-term events would help guide disposition decisions in these patients.

CLINICAL QUESTION

What are the data for current tools used to determine the short-term risk of adverse events of patients with AHF in the ED setting?

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Studies retrieved included six prospective studies and three retrospective cohort studies that evaluated the following five different risk scores that may predict the risk of serious adverse events in those with AHF: Ottawa Heart Failure Risk Score (OHFRS), Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG), EHMRG at 30 days with addition of an ST depression variable (EHMRG30-ST), Multiple Estimation of Risk Based on the Emergency Department Spanish 40 Score in Patients with AHF Score (MEESSI-AHF), and the Improving Heart Failure Risk Stratification in the ED (STRATIFY) tool.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the available literature, risk scores, including the OHFRS; EHMRG; EHMRG30-ST; MEESSI-AHF; and STRATIFY, can help identify short-term risk of adverse events, but are insufficient in isolation. Clinicians should use these tools in conjunction with other factors, such as the patient's symptom trajectory, hemodynamics, and access to follow-up care.

Hospital at Home as a Treatment Strategy for Worsening Heart Failure

Hospital at home (HaH) is an innovative care model that may be particularly suited for heart failure (HF). Outpatient visits and inpatient care have been the 2 traditional settings for HF care, yet may not match the social and medical needs of patients at all times. Alternative models such as HaH may represent an effective and patient-centered option for select patients with worsening HF. To date, limited research in HF and other disease states has supported HaH as being safe and lower cost than traditional inpatient admission. Supporting HaH are new payment structures, such as Medicare's Acute Hospital Care at Home waiver program. In combination with outpatient visits, outpatient intravenous diuretic clinics, inpatient care, and cardiac intensive care, HaH could be a core component of a comprehensive care model with the potential to match resource utilization with the needs of patients across the spectrum of HF severity, and improve patient outcomes.

Frequency and Impact of Infectious Disease Conditions Diagnosed During Decompensated Heart Failure Hospitalizations in the United States

There are limited data on the frequency of diagnosis of infectious disease and its impact on patients hospitalized with decompensated heart failure. We sought to evaluate the prevalence, types, trends, and outcomes of infectious disease diagnosis in patients admitted with decompensated heart failure. We performed a retrospective cohort study in patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of heart failure using the National Inpatient Sample database from 2009 to 2019. Patients with a length of stay ≥3 days were included. Patients with chronic dialysis, left ventricular assist devices, cardiogenic shock, or solid organ transplantation or who required mechanical ventilation or mechanical circulatory support were excluded. Patients were stratified according to the presence or absence of infectious disease diagnosis. Outcomes of interest were in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and resource utilization. Among the 7,228,521 admissions with a primary diagnosis of heart failure that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, an infectious disease diagnosis was reported in 1,806,514 (24.9%). Infectious disease diagnosis was more frequent in patients who were female, older, and White, and who had higher baseline co-morbidity. Since 2014, there has been a steady decrease in infectious conditions in patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (p for trend <0.01). After propensity match analysis was performed, patients with infectious disease diagnosis had a longer length of stay (6.9 vs 5.7 days, p <0.001) and higher cost ($14,305 vs $11,760, p <0.001), were less likely to be discharged home (35.3% vs 44.7%, p <0.001), and had higher in-hospital mortality (2.6% vs 1.6%, p <0.001). In conclusion, approximately 1 in 4 patients admitted with primary heart failure will be diagnosed with an infectious condition. The presence of an infectious disease diagnosis is associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

External validation of the ACUTE HF score for risk stratification in acute heart failure

BACKGROUND

The ACUTE HF score is a simple risk score that predicts the prognosis of patients with acute heart failure (HF) using clinical and echocardiographic parameters. As this score was developed for a small European population, we aimed to validate this score in an external population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This retrospective observational cohort analysis included patients hospitalized with acute HF during 2015-2019. Of 744 patients, 703 patients with available ACUTE HF scores were analyzed (75 ± 13 years; 61% male; left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 49 ± 17%). Approximately one-third (34.4%) of the patients had reduced LVEF (<40%), and 51.4% exhibited preserved LVEF (≥50%). During a median follow-up of 452 days, primary and secondary outcomes were observed in 110 and 204 patients, respectively. The ACUTE HF score successfully stratified patients for primary (all-cause mortality) and secondary endpoints (a composite of all-cause mortality and heart failure rehospitalization) in Kaplan-Meier analyses (log-rank test, P < 0.001). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models showed that the score was significantly independently associated with both primary and secondary endpoints after adjusted by covariates (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We validated the risk prediction ability of ACUTE HF score in an Asian population. This score may be applicable in clinical practice.

Point-of-care echocardiography of the right heart improves acute heart failure risk stratification for low-risk patients: The REED-AHF prospective study

OBJECTIVES

Validated acute heart failure (AHF) clinical decision instruments (CDI) insufficiently identify low-risk patients meriting consideration of outpatient treatment. While pilot data show that tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) is associated with adverse events, no AHF CDI currently incorporates point-of-care echocardiography (POCecho). We evaluated whether TAPSE adds incremental risk stratification value to an existing CDI.

METHODS

Prospectively enrolled patients at two urban-academic EDs had POCechos obtained before or <1 h after first intravenous diuresis, positive pressure ventilation, and/or nitroglycerin. STEMI and cardiogenic shock were excluded. AHF diagnosis was adjudicated by double-blind expert review. TAPSE, with an a priori cutoff of ≥17 mm, was our primary measure. Secondary measures included eight additional right heart and six left heart POCecho parameters. STRATIFY is a validated CDI predicting 30-day death/cardiopulmonary resuscitation, mechanical cardiac support, intubation, new/emergent dialysis, and acute myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization in ED AHF patients. Full (STRATIFY + POCecho variable) and reduced (STRATIFY alone) logistic regression models were fit to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR), category-free net reclassification index (NRI_cont ), ΔSensitivity (NRI_events ), and ΔSpecificity (NRI_nonevents ). Random forest assessed variable importance. To benchmark risk prediction to standard of care, ΔSensitivity and ΔSpecificity were evaluated at risk thresholds more conservative/lower than the actual outcome rate in discharged patients.

RESULTS

A total of 84/120 enrolled patients met inclusion and diagnostic adjudication criteria. Nineteen percent experiencing the primary outcome had higher STRATIFY scores compared to those event free (233 vs. 212, p = 0.009). Five right heart (TAPSE, TAPSE/PASP, TAPSE/RVDD, RV-FAC, fwRVLS) and no left heart measures improved prediction (p < 0.05) adjusted for STRATIFY. Right heart measures also had higher variable importance. TAPSE ≥ 17 mm plus STRATIFY improved prediction versus STRATIFY alone (aOR 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.91; NRI_cont  0.71, 95% CI 0.22-1.19), and specificity improved by 6%-32% (p < 0.05) at risk thresholds more conservative than the standard-of-care benchmark without missing any additional events.

CONCLUSIONS

TAPSE increased detection of low-risk AHF patients, after use of a validated CDI, at risk thresholds more conservative than standard of care.

The association between urinary sodium concentration (UNa) and outcomes of acute heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

Urinary sodium concentration (UNa) is a simple test advocated to assess diuretics efficacy and predict outcomes in acute heart failure (AHF). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the association of UNa with outcomes of AHF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched Embase and Medline for eligible studies that reported the association between UNa and outcomes of urinary output, weight loss, worsening renal function, length of hospital stay, re-hospitalization, worsening heart failure, and all-cause mortality in AHF. Nineteen observational studies out of 1592 screened records were included. For meta-analyses of outcomes, we grouped patients into high vs. low UNa, with most studies defining high UNa as &gt;48-65 mmol/L. In the high UNa group, pooled data showed a higher urinary output (mean difference 502 mL, 95% CI 323-681, P &lt; 0.01), greater weight loss (mean difference 1.6 kg, 95% CI 0.3-2.9, P = 0.01), and a shorter length of stay (mean difference -1.4 days, 95% CI -2.8 to -0.1, P = 0.03). There was no significant difference in worsening kidney function (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.25-1.16, P = 0.1). Due to the small number of studies, we did not report pooled estimates for re-hospitalization and worsening heart failure. High UNa was associated with lower odds of 30-day (OR 0.27; 95% CI 0.14-0.49, P &lt; 0.01), 90-day (OR 0.39,95% CI 0.25-0.59, P &lt; 0.01) and 12-month (OR 0.35; 95% CI 0.20-0.61, P &lt; 0.01) mortality.

CONCLUSION

High UNa after diuretic administration is associated with higher urinary output, greater weight loss, shorter length of stay, and lower odds of death. UNa is a promising marker of diuretic efficacy in AHF which should be confirmed in randomized trials.

Emergency department risk assessment and disposition of acute heart failure patients: existing evidence and ongoing challenges

Heart failure (HF) is a global public health burden, characterized by frequent emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. Identifying successful strategies to avoid admissions is crucial for the management of acutely decompensated HF, let alone resource utilization. The primary challenge for ED management of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) lies in the identification of those who can be safely discharged home instead of being admitted. This is an elaborate decision, based on limited objective evidence. Thus far, current biomarkers and risk stratification tools have had little impact on ED disposition decision-making. A reliable definition of a low-risk patient profile is warranted in order to accurately identify patients who could be appropriate for early discharge. A brief period of observation can facilitate risk stratification and allow for close monitoring, aggressive treatment, continuous assessment of response to initial therapy and patient education. Lung ultrasound may represent a valid bedside tool to monitor cardiogenic pulmonary oedema and determine the extent of achieved cardiac unloading after treatment in the observation unit setting. Safe discharge mandates multidisciplinary collaboration and thoughtful assessment of socioeconomic and behavioural factors, along with a clear post-discharge plan put forward and a close follow-up in an outpatient setting. Ongoing research to improve ED risk stratification and disposition of AHF patients may mitigate the tremendous public health challenge imposed by the HF epidemic.

Incidence of Timely Outpatient Follow-Up Care After Emergency Department Encounters for Acute Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Patients who are discharged from the emergency department (ED) after an encounter for acute heart failure are at high risk for return hospitalization. These patients may benefit from timely outpatient follow-up care to reassess volume status, adjust medications, and reinforce self-care strategies. This study examines the incidence of outpatient follow-up care after ED encounters for acute heart failure and describes patient characteristics associated with obtaining timely follow-up care.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using an administrative claims database for a large US commercial insurer, from January 1, 2012 to June 30, 2019. Participants included adult patients discharged from the ED with principal diagnosis of acute heart failure. The primary outcome was obtaining an in-person outpatient clinic visit for heart failure within 30 days. We also examined the competing risk of all-cause hospitalization within 30 days and without an intervening outpatient clinic visit. We estimated competing risk regression models to identify patient characteristics associated with obtaining outpatient follow-up and report cause-specific hazard ratios.

RESULTS

The cohort included 52 732 patients, with mean age of 73.9 years (95% CI, 73.8-74.0) and 27 395 (52.0% [95% CI, 51.5-52.4]) female patients. Within 30 days of the ED encounter, 12 279 (23.2%) patients attended an outpatient clinic visit for heart failure, with 8382 (15.9%) patients hospitalized before they could obtain an outpatient clinic visit. In the adjusted analysis, patients that were younger, women, reporting non-Hispanic Black race, and had fewer previous clinic visits were less likely to obtain outpatient follow-up care.

CONCLUSIONS

Few patients obtain timely outpatient follow-up after ED visits for heart failure, although nearly 20% require hospitalization within 30 days. Improved transitions following discharge from the ED may represent an opportunity to improve outcomes for patients with acute heart failure.

Data standards for heart failure: the European Unified Registries for Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart)

Standardized data definitions are essential for assessing the quality of care and patient outcomes in observational studies and randomized controlled trials. The European Unified Registries for Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart) project of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) aims to create contemporary pan-European data standards for cardiovascular diseases, including heart failure (HF). We followed the EuroHeart methodology for cardiovascular data standard development. A Working Group including experts in HF registries, representatives from the Heart Failure Association of the ESC, and the EuroHeart was formed. Using Embase and Medline (2016-21), we conducted a systematic review of the literature on data standards, registries, and trials to identify variables pertinent to HF. A modified Delphi method was used to reach a consensus on the final set of variables. For each variable, the Working Group developed data definitions and agreed on whether it was mandatory (Level 1) or additional (Level 2). In total, 84 Level 1 and 79 Level 2 variables were selected for nine domains of HF care. These variables were reviewed by an international Reference Group with the Level 1 variables providing the dataset for registration of patients with HF on the EuroHeart IT platform. By means of a structured process and interaction with international stakeholders, harmonized data standards for HF have been developed. In the context of the EuroHeart, this will facilitate quality improvement, international observational research, registry-based randomized trials, and post-marketing surveillance of devices and pharmacotherapies across Europe.

Hemodynamic profiles by non-invasive monitoring of cardiac index and vascular tone in acute heart failure patients in the emergency department: External validation and clinical outcomes

Background

Non-invasive finger-cuff monitors measuring cardiac index and vascular tone (SVRI) classify emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF) into three otherwise-indistinguishable subgroups. Our goals were to validate these “hemodynamic profiles” in an external cohort and assess their association with clinical outcomes.

Methods

AHF patients (n = 257) from five EDs were prospectively enrolled in the validation cohort (VC). Cardiac index and SVRI were measured with a ClearSight finger-cuff monitor (formerly NexFin, Edwards Lifesciences) as in a previous study (derivation cohort, DC, n = 127). A control cohort (CC, n = 127) of ED patients with sepsis was drawn from the same study as the DC. K-means cluster analysis previously derived two-dimensional (cardiac index and SVRI) hemodynamic profiles in the DC and CC (k = 3 profiles each). The VC was subgrouped de novo into three analogous profiles by unsupervised K-means consensus clustering. PERMANOVA tested whether VC profiles 1–3 differed from profiles 1–3 in the DC and CC, by multivariate group composition of cardiac index and vascular tone.

Profiles in the VC were compared by a primary outcome of 90-day mortality and a 30-day ranked composite secondary outcome (death, mechanical cardiac support, intubation, new/emergent dialysis, coronary intervention/surgery) as time-to-event (survival analysis) and binary events (odds ratio, OR). Descriptive statistics were used to compare profiles by two validated risk scores for the primary outcome, and one validated score for the secondary outcome.

Results

The VC had median age 60 years (interquartile range {49–67}), and was 45% (n = 116) female. Multivariate profile composition by cardiac index and vascular tone differed significantly between VC profiles 1–3 and CC profiles 1–3 (p = 0.001, R² = 0.159). A difference was not detected between profiles in the VC vs. the DC (p = 0.59, R² = 0.016).

VC profile 3 had worse 90-day survival than profiles 1 or 2 (HR = 4.8, 95%CI 1.4–17.1). The ranked secondary outcome was more likely in profile 1 (OR = 10.0, 1.2–81.2) and profile 3 (12.8, 1.7–97.9) compared to profile 2. Diabetes prevalence and blood urea nitrogen were lower in the high-risk profile 3 (p<0.05). No significant differences between profiles were observed for other clinical variables or the 3 clinical risk scores.

Conclusions

Hemodynamic profiles in ED patients with AHF, by non-invasive finger-cuff monitoring of cardiac index and vascular tone, were replicated de novo in an external cohort. Profiles showed significantly different risks of clinically-important adverse patient outcomes.

Do we need a simplified model to predict outcomes in patients hospitalized with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure? Results from The Role of Sodium in Heart Failure Outcomes Prediction ('SHOUT-PREDICTION') study

Context

Hyponatremia is associated with high in-hospital mortality in patients with acute decompensated Heart Failure (ADHF) and is one of the components in various risk scores in heart failure (HF). However, some risk scores predict outcomes in these patients without using hyponatremia as its component.

Aim

The study was aimed to evaluate the relationship between serum sodium levels at admission and clinical outcomes during the in-hospital course and three months’ follow-up, in patients admitted in the intensive cardiac care unit (ICCU) with ADHF.

Methods and material

This was a single-center prospective, observational study in which 130 consecutive patients admitted with ADHF were observed for clinical characteristics and blood investigation at admission and their clinical outcomes during the in-hospital course and follow-up of 3 months.

Results

Hyponatremia and systolic blood pressure (SBP) both were found to be the independent predictor of in-hospital mortality. The SXS score (calculated as a product of SBP and serum sodium, divided by 1000) as a new prediction variable was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality and was compared with the Get with the guideline HF (GWTG-HF) score and ADHF national registry (ADHERE) score. The SXS score showed the best overall accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.899] as compared to the ADHERE (AUC = 0.780) and the GWTG (AUC = 0.815).

Conclusions

A score derived from the product of serum sodium and SBP (SXS score) had a significant association with in-hospital mortality, and better predictive value as compared to GWTG and ADHERE risk score in these patients.

Acute heart failure in elderly patients: a review of invasive and non-invasive management

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a major cause of unplanned hospitalisations in the elderly and is associated with high mortality. Its prevalence has grown in the last years due to population aging and longer life expectancy of chronic heart failure patients. Although international societies have provided guidelines for the management of AHF in the general population, scientific evidence for geriatric patients is often lacking, as these are underrepresented in clinical trials. Elderly have a different risk profile with more comorbidities, disability, and frailty, leading to increased morbidity, longer recovery time, higher readmission rates, and higher mortality. Furthermore, therapeutic options are often limited, due to unfeasibility of invasive strategies, mechanical circulatory support and cardiac transplantation. Thus, the in-hospital management of AHF should be tailored to each patient's clinical situation, cardiopulmonary condition and geriatric assessment. Palliative care should be considered in some cases, in order to avoid unnecessary diagnostics and/or treatments. After discharge, a strict follow-up through outpatient clinic or telemedicine is can improve quality of life and reduce rehospitalisation rates. The aim of this review is to offer an insight on current literature and provide a clinically oriented, patient-tailored approach regarding assessment, treatment and follow-up of elderly patients admitted for AHF.

REVeAL-HF: Design and Rationale of a Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial Embedded Within Routine Clinical Practice

Heart failure (HF) is one of the most common causes of hospitalization in the United States and carries a significant risk of morbidity and mortality. Use of evidence-based interventions may improve outcomes, but their use is encumbered in part by limitations in accurate prognostication. The REVeAL-HF (Risk EValuation And its Impact on ClinicAL Decision Making and Outcomes in Heart Failure) trial is the first to definitively evaluate the impact of knowledge about prognosis on clinical decision making and patient outcomes. The REVeAL-HF trial is a pragmatic, completely electronic, randomized controlled trial that has completed enrollment of 3,124 adults hospitalized for HF, defined as having an N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level of >500 pg/ml and receiving intravenous diuretic agents within 24 h of admission. Patients randomized to the intervention had their risk of 1-year mortality generated with information in the electronic health record and presented to their providers, who had the option to give feedback on their impression of this risk assessment. The authors are examining the impact of this information on clinical decision-making (use of HF pharmacotherapies, referral to electrophysiology, palliative care referral, and referral for advanced therapies like heart transplantation or mechanical circulatory support) and patient outcomes (length of stay, post-discharge 30-day rehospitalizations, and 1-year mortality). The REVeAL-HF trial will definitively examine whether knowledge about prognosis in HF has an impact on clinical decision making and patient outcomes. It will also examine the relationship between calculated, perceived, and real risk of mortality in this patient population. (Risk EValuation And Its Impact on ClinicAL Decision Making and Outcomes in Heart Failure [REVeAL-HF]; NCT03845660).

Prediction of short-term mortality in acute heart failure patients using minimal electronic health record data

Background

Acute heart failure (AHF) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Effective patient risk stratification is essential to guiding hospitalization decisions and the clinical management of AHF. Clinical decision support systems can be used to improve predictions of mortality made in emergency care settings for the purpose of AHF risk stratification. In this study, several models for the prediction of seven-day mortality among AHF patients were developed by applying machine learning techniques to retrospective patient data from 236,275 total emergency department (ED) encounters, 1881 of which were considered positive for AHF and were used for model training and testing. The models used varying subsets of age, sex, vital signs, and laboratory values. Model performance was compared to the Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) model, a commonly used system for prediction of seven-day mortality in the ED with similar (or, in some cases, more extensive) inputs. Model performance was assessed in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity.

Results

When trained and tested on a large academic dataset, the best-performing model and EHMRG demonstrated test set AUROCs of 0.84 and 0.78, respectively, for prediction of seven-day mortality. Given only measurements of respiratory rate, temperature, mean arterial pressure, and FiO₂, one model produced a test set AUROC of 0.83. Neither a logistic regression comparator nor a simple decision tree outperformed EHMRG.

Conclusions

A model using only the measurements of four clinical variables outperforms EHMRG in the prediction of seven-day mortality in AHF. With these inputs, the model could not be replaced by logistic regression or reduced to a simple decision tree without significant performance loss. In ED settings, this minimal-input risk stratification tool may assist clinicians in making critical decisions about patient disposition by providing early and accurate insights into individual patient’s risk profiles.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13040-021-00255-w.

Lower Plasma Elabela Levels in Hypertensive Patients With Heart Failure Predict the Occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac Events: A Preliminary Study

Background: Elabela, a novel cardiac developmental peptide, has been shown to improve heart dysfunction. However, the roles and correlation of Elabela in predicting adverse cardiac events in hypertensive patients with heart failure (HF) remain largely unclear.

Objective: To measure plasma levels of Elabela in hypertensive patients with HF and evaluate its prognostic value.

Methods: A single-site, cohort, prospective, observational study was investigated with all subjects, including control subjects and hypertensive patients with or without HF, whom were recruited in Beijing Chaoyang Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University form October 2018 to July 2019. The subjects among different groups were matched based on age and sex. The clinical characteristics were collected, and plasma Elabela levels were detected in all subjects. The hypertensive patients with HF were followed up for 180 days, and the major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were recorded. The Cox regression was used to explore the correlation between Elabela level and MACE in hypertensive patients with or without HF. The receiver operating characteristic curves were used to access the predictive power of plasma Elabela level.

Results: A total of 308 subjects, including 40 control subjects, 134 hypertensive patients without HF, and 134 hypertensive patients with HF were enrolled in this study. Plasma levels of Elabela were lower in hypertensive patients compared with control subjects [4.9 (2.8, 6.7) vs. 11.8 (9.8, 14.0) ng/ml, P < 0.001]. Furthermore, HF patients with preserved ejection fraction had a higher plasma Elabela level than those with impaired left ventricular systolic function (heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction). The hypertensive patients with HF and higher plasma Elabela levels had a better readmission-free and MACE-free survival than those with lower plasma Elabela levels in survival analysis. The Cox regression analysis revealed that plasma Elabela levels were negatively associated with MACE (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.61–0.99, P = 0.048) in hypertensive patients with HF.

Conclusion: Plasma Elabela levels were decreased in hypertensive patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Thus, Elabela may be potentially used as a novel predictor for MACE in hypertensive patients with HF.

A narrative review on the management of Acute Heart Failure in Emergency Medicine Department

The main urgent symptom presented to an emergency department is acute heart failure (AHF). In that considerable risksof morbidity and mortality, it is important to plan precision medicine to achieve the most suitable outcomes. The object of this review is to provide a summary of contemporary management procedures of emergency medicine in a department of acute heart failure. Heart failure could be presented with a broad range of symptoms, in particular a sudden worsening of those of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. The treatment should focus on acute and chronic underlying disorders with instructions focusing on haemodynamics and blood pressure status. Treatment of patients suffering with worsening symptoms of AHF mainly focuses on intravenous diuretics. In emergency situations, patients suffering with AHF with low blood pressure must receive emergency consultation and a primary fluid bolus therapy (range 250-500 mL) followed by inotropic therapy with or without antihypotensive agents. For treatment of severe heart failure and cardiogenic shock in patients treated with noradrenalin, when blood pressure support is required, a direct-acting inotropic agent, dobutamine, could be applied effectively. When non-invasive positive pressure ventilation is needed, suppliers must track for any possibility of sudden worsening, i.e., for acute decompensated heart failure. When cardiac output is high the disorder could be treated with vasopressors.

A combined care model using early access to specialists off-hours to reduce cardiac admissions

Despite the implementation of diagnostic and treatment algorithms for many common cardiovascular (CV) complaints, identifying low- and intermediate-risk cardiac patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) who could be managed without hospital admission remains difficult. We hypothesized that the presence of an attending cardiologist in the ED after normal working hours would decrease the proportion of these patients admitted to the hospital. We conducted a retrospective study of patients seen in the ED with cardiac diagnoses identified by ICD-9 codes during the time period when the cardiologist was available (6 p.m.-midnight) compared with patients seen at other times of the day in the 12 months before and after the consultation program was implemented. The primary outcome was disposition at the time of discharge from the ED. Logistic regression was used to model the primary outcome. A difference-in-differences approach was used as the primary statistical test .Following the start of the consultation program, the odds of discharge home from the ED with or without observation increased (OR 1.69, 95% CI [1.45-1.96]). There was a significant interaction between pre-/post-intervention status and time of day in the odds of discharge home from the ED (P = 0.04) suggesting an association between the consultation program and disposition patterns that is independent of concurrent programs aimed to reduce utilization. An ED-based cardiology consultation program may reduce the need for inpatient stays by identifying low- to intermediate-risk patients safe for discharge from the ED with or without a period of active management/observation.