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Yang Z, Liu C, Fu C, Zhao X. A nomogram for individualized prediction of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation in acute type A aortic dissection patients: a retrospective study. Front Cardiovasc Med 2024; 11:1429680. [PMID: 39234610 PMCID: PMC11371795 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2024.1429680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2024] [Accepted: 08/06/2024] [Indexed: 09/06/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective The objective of this study is to explore the risk factors associated with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following Sun's surgery(total arch replacement using a tetrafurcate graft with stented elephant trunk implantation) for acute type A aortic dissection(AAAD) and to develop a predictive model for assessing the likelihood of new-onset POAF in patients undergoing Sun's surgery for AAAD. Methods We reviewed the clinical parameters of patients diagnosed with AAAD who underwent Sun's surgery at Qilu Hospital between December 1, 2017 and December 31, 2022. The data was analyzed through univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Variance inflation factor was used to investigate for variable collinearity. A nomogram for predicting new-onset POAF was developed and verified by bootstrap resampling. In addition, the calibration of our model was evaluated by the calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Furthermore, the clinical utility of our model was evaluated using the net benefit curve. Results This study focused on a cohort of 242 patients with AAAD, among whom 42 experienced new-onset POAF, indicating an incidence rate of 17.36%. Age, left atrial diameter (LA), right atrial diameter (RA), preoperative red blood cells (RBC), and previous acute coronary syndrome (preACS) emerged as independent influences on new-onset POAF following Sun's surgery, as identified by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Collinearity analysis with demonstrated no collinearity among the variables. A user-friendly prediction nomogram for new onset POAF following Sun's surgery was formulated. The model demonstrated commendable diagnostic accuracy with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.7852. Validation of the model through bootstrapping (1,000 repetitions) yielded an AUC of 0.8080 (95% CI: 0.8056-0.8104). affirming its robustness. Additionally, the model exhibited favorable fit, calibration, and positive net benefits in decision curve analysis. Conclusions Drawing upon these findings, we have developed a predictive model for the occurrence of new-onset POAF. These results suggest the potential efficacy of this prediction model for identifying patients at risk of developing POAF. The visualization of this model empowers healthcare professionals to conveniently and promptly assess the risk of AF in patients, thereby facilitating the timely intervention implementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhihao Yang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Institute of Thoracoscopy in Cardiac Surgery, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Chunxiao Liu
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Institute of Thoracoscopy in Cardiac Surgery, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Chao Fu
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Institute of Thoracoscopy in Cardiac Surgery, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xin Zhao
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Institute of Thoracoscopy in Cardiac Surgery, Shandong University, Jinan, China
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Zhang D, Zhang Z, Zhen Y, Liu X, Fan X, Ye Z, Liu P. New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after pulmonary endarterectomy is associated with adverse outcomes. Front Surg 2024; 11:1380570. [PMID: 38872724 PMCID: PMC11169783 DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2024.1380570] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2024] [Accepted: 05/10/2024] [Indexed: 06/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Background New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after pulmonary thromboendarterectomy (PEA), yet the risk factors and their impact on prognosis remain poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the risk factors associated with new-onset POAF after PEA and elucidate its underlying connection with adverse postoperative outcomes. Methods A retrospective analysis included 129 consecutive chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) patients and 16 sarcoma patients undergoing PEA. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to examine the potential effects of preoperative and intraoperative variables on new-onset POAF following PEA. Propensity score matching (PSM) was then employed to adjust for confounding factors. Results Binary logistic regression revealed that age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.041, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.008-1.075, p = 0.014) and left atrial diameter[LAD] (OR = 1.105, 95% CI = 1.025-1.191, p = 0.009) were independent risk factors for new-onset POAF after PEA. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve indicated that the predictive abilities of age and LAD for new-onset POAF were 0.652 and 0.684, respectively. Patients with new-onset POAF, compared with those without, exhibited a higher incidence of adverse outcomes (in-hospital mortality, acute heart failure, acute kidney insufficiency, reperfusion pulmonary edema). Propensity score matching (PSM) analyses confirmed the results. Conclusion Advanced age and LAD independently contribute to the risk of new-onset POAF after PEA. Patients with new-onset POAF are more prone to adverse outcomes. Therefore, heightened vigilance and careful monitoring of POAF after PEA are warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dingkai Zhang
- China-Japan Friendship Hospital (Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Zhaohua Zhang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Peking University China-Japan Friendship School of Clinical Medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Yanan Zhen
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaopeng Liu
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Xueqiang Fan
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Zhidong Ye
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Liu
- China-Japan Friendship Hospital (Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
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Oishi Y, Kumamaru H, Kato M, Ohki T, Shiose A, Motomura N, Shimizu H. Open Versus Zone 0/1 Endovascular Aortic Repair for Arch Aneurysm: A Propensity Score-Matched Study from the National Clinical Database in Japan. Ann Vasc Surg 2024; 100:128-137. [PMID: 38122978 DOI: 10.1016/j.avsg.2023.10.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2023] [Revised: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 10/13/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although open surgical repair (OSR) is the gold standard for treating arch aneurysms, thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) may be a less invasive alternative. However, it remains unclear which of the 2 methods yields better outcomes. In this study, we compared the perioperative outcomes of both procedures for arch aneurysms using a nationwide surgical database. METHODS Data of patients who underwent elective aortic repair for true arch aneurysms were extracted from the National Clinical Database of Japan. Patients who underwent OSR and Zone 0/1 TEVAR were matched in a 1:1 ratio using propensity scores and their mortality and morbidity rates were compared. RESULTS A total of 2,815 and 1,125 patients underwent OSR and Zone 0/1 TEVAR, respectively. After propensity score matching, 1,058 patients were included in both groups. Compared with OSR, Zone 0/1 TEVAR was associated with a significantly higher incidence of stroke (5.8 vs. 10.0%, P < 0.001) and paraplegia/paraparesis (1.6 vs. 4.4%, P < 0.001). However, there were no significant differences in the 30-day and operative mortality rates between the 2 groups (2.2 vs. 2.7% and 4.5 vs. 5.4%, respectively). In the Zone 0/1 TEVAR group, postoperative computed tomography was performed in 92.4% of patients, and types I and III endoleaks were identified in 6.4% and 1.1% of patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Zone 0/1 TEVAR has higher incidences of stroke and paraplegia/paraparesis than OSR, with a risk of postoperative endoleaks. Resolving these problems is the key for expanding the application of Zone 0/1 TEVAR and in the meantime OSR remains the gold standard for surgically fit patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yasuhisa Oishi
- Advanced Aortic Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, Kyushu University Graduate School of Medicine, Fukuoka, Japan.
| | - Hiraku Kumamaru
- Department of Health Care Quality Assessment, The University Tokyo Graduate School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masaaki Kato
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Morinomiya Hospital, Osaka, Japan; Japan Cardiovascular Surgery Database, Tokyo, Japan; Japan Stent Graft Committee for Stentgraft Management, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takao Ohki
- Japan Stent Graft Committee for Stentgraft Management, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Surgery, The Jikei University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Akira Shiose
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Kyushu University Graduate School of Medicine, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Noboru Motomura
- Japan Cardiovascular Surgery Database, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Chiba, Japan
| | - Hideyuki Shimizu
- Japan Stent Graft Committee for Stentgraft Management, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
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Li D, Fang Z, Liu M, Li H, Zhang H, Li H, Liu Y, Jiang W. Predictors and mortality of new onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after STAAD surgery: a retrospective cohort study. Int J Surg 2024; 110:1620-1626. [PMID: 38052020 PMCID: PMC10942241 DOI: 10.1097/js9.0000000000000996] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Data on new onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after Stanford type A dissection (STAAD) surgery was limited. This study aimed to detect the risk factors for developing POAF after STAAD procedures and the association between POAF and in-hospital mortality. METHODS A total of 1354 patients who underwent surgical treatment for STAAD in Beijing Anzhen hospital were enrolled in this single-center retrospective study from January 2015 to October 2020. POAF were defined as atrial fibrillation/flutter requiring treatment after surgery procedure. Logistic model was conducted to detect the predictors of POAF, and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and subgroup analysis were used to compare the mortality of POAF and non-POAF groups. RESULTS There were 176 patients (13.0%) diagnosed with POAF according to the definition. Multivariate logistics analyses revealed that advanced age [odds ratio (OR), 1.07; 95% CI: 1.05-1.08; P <0.001)], creatinine (OR, 1.00; 95% CI: 1.00-1.01; P =0.001) and cross-clamp time (OR, 1.00; 95% CI: 1.00-1.01; P =0.021) were independent risk factors of developing POAF in STAAD patients. POAF patients were associated with significantly higher in-hospital mortality compared with non-POAF patients (6.5 vs. 19.9%, OR, 3.60; 95% CI: 2.30-5.54; P <0.001), IPTW and subgroup analysis had reached consistent conclusions. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of POAF was 13.0% after STAAD surgery, advanced age, creatinine, and cross-clamp time were independent risk factors of developing POAF in STAAD patients. POAF is associated with increased mortality after STAAD procedures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dongjie Li
- Department of Cardiac Surgery
- Beijing Lab for Cardiovascular Precision Medicine, Beijing
| | - Zhou Fang
- Department of Cardiac Surgery
- Beijing Lab for Cardiovascular Precision Medicine, Beijing
| | - Maomao Liu
- Center for Cardiac Intensive, Beijing Anzhen Hospital
| | - Haibin Li
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, Heart Center & Beijing Key Laboratory of Hypertension, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University
- Beijing Lab for Cardiovascular Precision Medicine, Beijing
| | - Hongjia Zhang
- Department of Cardiac Surgery
- Beijing Lab for Cardiovascular Precision Medicine, Beijing
| | - Haiyang Li
- Department of Cardiac Surgery
- Beijing Lab for Cardiovascular Precision Medicine, Beijing
| | - Yuyong Liu
- Department of Cardiac Surgery
- Beijing Lab for Cardiovascular Precision Medicine, Beijing
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, People’s Republic of China
| | - Wenjian Jiang
- Department of Cardiac Surgery
- Beijing Lab for Cardiovascular Precision Medicine, Beijing
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Suero OR, Ali AK, Barron LR, Segar MW, Moon MR, Chatterjee S. Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery: clinical practice review. J Thorac Dis 2024; 16:1503-1520. [PMID: 38505057 PMCID: PMC10944787 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-23-1626] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/18/2024] [Indexed: 03/21/2024]
Abstract
Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery is associated with elevated morbidity and mortality. Although current prediction models have limited efficacy, several perioperative interventions can reduce patients' risk of POAF. These begin with preoperative medications, including beta-blockers and amiodarone. Moreover, patients should be screened for preexisting atrial fibrillation (AF) so that concomitant surgical ablation and left atrial appendage occlusion can be performed in appropriate candidates. Intraoperative interventions such as posterior pericardiectomy can reduce mediastinal fluid accumulation, which is a trigger for POAF. Furthermore, many preventive strategies for POAF are implemented in the immediate postoperative period. Initiating beta-blockers, amiodarone, or both is reasonable for most patients. Overdrive atrial pacing, colchicine, and steroids have been used by some, although the evidence base is less robust. For patients with POAF, rate-control and rhythm-control strategies have comparable outcomes. Decision-making regarding anticoagulation should recognize that the stroke risk associated with POAF appears to be lower than that for general nonvalvular AF. The evidence that oral anticoagulation reduces stroke risk is less clear for POAF patients than for patients with general nonvalvular AF. Given that POAF tends to be shorter-lived and is associated with greater bleeding risks in the perioperative period, decisions regarding anticoagulation should be individualized. Finally, wearable technology and machine learning algorithms for better predicting and managing POAF appear to be coming soon. These technologies and a comprehensive clinical program could meaningfully reduce the incidence of this common complication.
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Affiliation(s)
- Orlando R. Suero
- Divisions of Cardiovascular Anesthesia & Critical Care Medicine, Department of Anesthesiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Ahmed K. Ali
- Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Lauren R. Barron
- Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Texas Heart Institute, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Matthew W. Segar
- Department of Cardiology, The Texas Heart Institute, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Marc R. Moon
- Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Texas Heart Institute, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Subhasis Chatterjee
- Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Texas Heart Institute, Houston, TX, USA
- Division of General Surgery, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
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Li N, Li YJ, Guo XJ, Wu SH, Jiang WF, Zhang DL, Wang KW, Li L, Sun YM, Xu YJ, Yang YQ, Qiu XB. Discovery of TBX20 as a Novel Gene Underlying Atrial Fibrillation. BIOLOGY 2023; 12:1186. [PMID: 37759586 PMCID: PMC10525918 DOI: 10.3390/biology12091186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Revised: 08/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most prevalent type of sustained cardiac dysrhythmia globally, confers strikingly enhanced risks for cognitive dysfunction, stroke, chronic cardiac failure, and sudden cardiovascular demise. Aggregating studies underscore the crucial roles of inherited determinants in the occurrence and perpetuation of AF. However, due to conspicuous genetic heterogeneity, the inherited defects accounting for AF remain largely indefinite. Here, via whole-genome genotyping with genetic markers and a linkage assay in a family suffering from AF, a new AF-causative locus was located at human chromosome 7p14.2-p14.3, a ~4.89 cM (~4.43-Mb) interval between the markers D7S526 and D7S2250. An exome-wide sequencing assay unveiled that, at the defined locus, the mutation in the TBX20 gene, NM_001077653.2: c.695A>G; p.(His232Arg), was solely co-segregated with AF in the family. Additionally, a Sanger sequencing assay of TBX20 in another family suffering from AF uncovered a novel mutation, NM_001077653.2: c.862G>C; p.(Asp288His). Neither of the two mutations were observed in 600 unrelated control individuals. Functional investigations demonstrated that the two mutations both significantly reduced the transactivation of the target gene KCNH2 (a well-established AF-causing gene) and the ability to bind the promoter of KCNH2, while they had no effect on the nuclear distribution of TBX20. Conclusively, these findings reveal a new AF-causative locus at human chromosome 7p14.2-p14.3 and strongly indicate TBX20 as a novel AF-predisposing gene, shedding light on the mechanism underlying AF and suggesting clinical significance for the allele-specific treatment of AF patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ning Li
- Department of Cardiology, Putuo Hospital, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai 200062, China;
| | - Yan-Jie Li
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Chest Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China; (Y.-J.L.); (S.-H.W.); (W.-F.J.)
| | - Xiao-Juan Guo
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Fifth People’s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200240, China; (X.-J.G.); (Y.-J.X.)
- Center for Complex Cardiac Arrhythmias of Minhang District, Shanghai Fifth People′s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200240, China
| | - Shao-Hui Wu
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Chest Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China; (Y.-J.L.); (S.-H.W.); (W.-F.J.)
| | - Wei-Feng Jiang
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Chest Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China; (Y.-J.L.); (S.-H.W.); (W.-F.J.)
| | - Dao-Liang Zhang
- Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shenzhen 518057, China;
| | - Kun-Wei Wang
- Department of Cardiology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200065, China;
| | - Li Li
- Key Laboratory of Arrhythmias, Ministry of Education of China, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China;
| | - Yu-Min Sun
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Jing’an District Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200040, China;
| | - Ying-Jia Xu
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Fifth People’s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200240, China; (X.-J.G.); (Y.-J.X.)
- Center for Complex Cardiac Arrhythmias of Minhang District, Shanghai Fifth People′s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200240, China
| | - Yi-Qing Yang
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Fifth People’s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200240, China; (X.-J.G.); (Y.-J.X.)
- Center for Complex Cardiac Arrhythmias of Minhang District, Shanghai Fifth People′s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200240, China
- Cardiovascular Research Laboratory, Shanghai Fifth People’s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200240, China
- Central Laboratory, Shanghai Fifth People’s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200240, China
| | - Xing-Biao Qiu
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Chest Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China; (Y.-J.L.); (S.-H.W.); (W.-F.J.)
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Biochemical Predictors of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation after Ascending Aorta Replacement Surgery in Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Patients. J Card Surg 2023. [DOI: 10.1155/2023/2612292] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/10/2023]
Abstract
Objective. This study aimed to determine the risk factors of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after ascending aortic replacement in acute type A aortic dissection patients, with emphasis on biochemical parameters. Methods. From Jan 2020 to Dec 2021, a total of 435 acute type A aortic dissection patients who underwent ascending aortic replacement and without a history of atrial fibrillation were retrospectively analyzed in this study. Perioperative data of these patients were obtained from the hospital’s database. The 30-day follow-up was via telephone interviews. The multivariate regression analysis was used to identify risk factors that may be predictive of postoperative atrial fibrillation. Results. 218 (50.1%) patients experienced postoperative atrial fibrillation after ascending aorta replacement surgery. Older age (OR = 1.081 (1.059–1.104),
), higher total bile acid (OR = 1.064 (1.024–1.106),
= 0.002), glucose (OR = 1.180 (1.038–1.342),
= 0.012), and serum potassium (OR = 2.313 (1.078–4.960),
= 0.031) were identified by multivariate regression analysis as risk factors of postoperative atrial fibrillation. The multivariate regression analysis prediction model incorporating these four factors had a good prediction effect (AUC = 0.769 (0.723–0.816),
). Conclusions. Older age, higher total bile acid, glucose, and serum potassium were risk factors of postoperative atrial fibrillation after ascending aortic replacement surgery in acute type A aortic dissection patients.
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Gong J, Wei Y, Zhang Q, Tang J, Chang Q. Nomogram predicts atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting. BMC Cardiovasc Disord 2022; 22:388. [PMID: 36042409 PMCID: PMC9429785 DOI: 10.1186/s12872-022-02824-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2022] [Accepted: 08/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective Using the nomogram to intuitively predict atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting. Identify high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation and provide preoperative protective therapy. Methods A total of 397 patients that underwent coronary artery bypass grafting were consecutively enrolled. Independent predictors of patients were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. Two nomograms were constructed to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation. Results The incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation in this study was 29% (115/397). Multivariate Logistic showed that Age, Operative Time > 4 h, Left Atrial Diameter > 40 mm, Mean Arterial Pressure, Body Mass Index > 23 kg/m2, Insulins, and Statins were independently associated with atrial fibrillation after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. The nomogram of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients was constructed using total predictor variables (AUC = 0.727, 95% CI 0.673–0.781). The model was internally validated (AUC = 0.701) by K-fold Cross-validation resampling (K = 5, Times = 400). To make an early intervention, the intraoperative information of the patients was excluded. Only 6 variables before surgery were used to establish the brief nomogram to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation (AUC = 0.707, 95% CI 0.651–0.764). The brief model was internally validated (AUC = 0.683) by resampling with K-fold Cross-validation resampling. Conclusions These two nomograms could be used to predict patients at high risk for atrial fibrillation after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingshuai Gong
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, 16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, China
| | - Yangyan Wei
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, 16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, China
| | - Qian Zhang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, 16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, China
| | - Jiwen Tang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, 16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, China
| | - Qing Chang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, 16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, China.
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