Clinical prediction rule to estimate the absolute 3-year risk of major cardiovascular events after carotid endarterectomy

Characteristics of peripheral blood cells are independently related to major adverse cardiovascular events after carotid endarterectomy

Background and aims

Patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA) still have a residual risk of 13% of developing a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) within 3 years. Inflammatory processes leading up to MACE are not fully understood. Therefore, we examined blood cell characteristics (BCCs), possibly reflecting inflammatory processes, in relation to MACE to identify BCCs that may contribute to an increased risk.

Methods

We analyzed 75 pretreatment BCCs from the Sapphire analyzer, and clinical data from the Athero-Express biobank in relation to MACE after CEA using Random Survival Forests, and a Generalized Additive Survival Model. To understand biological mechanisms, we related the identified variables to intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH).

Results

Of 783 patients, 97 (12%) developed MACE within 3 years after CEA. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) (HR 1.23 [1.02, 1.68], p = 0.022), CV of lymphocyte size (LACV) (HR 0.78 [0.63, 0.99], p = 0.043), neutrophil complexity of the intracellular structure (NIMN) (HR 0.80 [0.64, 0.98], p = 0.033), mean neutrophil size (NAMN) (HR 0.67 [0.55, 0.83], p < 0.001), mean corpuscular volume (MCV) (HR 1.35 [1.09, 1.66], p = 0.005), eGFR (HR 0.65 [0.52, 0.80], p < 0.001); and HDL-cholesterol (HR 0.62 [0.45, 0.85], p = 0.003) were related to MACE. NAMN was related to IPH (OR 0.83 [0.71-0.98], p = 0.02).

Conclusions

This is the first study to present a higher RDW and MCV and lower LACV, NIMN and NAMN as biomarkers reflecting inflammatory processes that may contribute to an increased risk of MACE after CEA.

Plasma Lipoprotein Lipase Is Associated with Risk of Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients Following Carotid Endarterectomy

INTRODUCTION

Carotid plaque intraplaque haemorrhage (IPH) is associated with future cardiovascular events. It was hypothesised that plasma proteins associated with carotid plaque IPH are also likely to be associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after carotid endarterectomy (CEA).

METHODS

In pre-operative blood samples from patients undergoing CEA within the Athero-Express biobank, proteins involved in cardiovascular disease were measured using three OLINK proteomics immunoassays. The association between proteins and IPH was analysed using logistic regression analyses. Subsequently, the association between the IPH associated plasma proteins and the three year post-operative risk of MACE (including stroke, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death) was analysed.

RESULTS

Within the three year follow up, 130 patients (18.9%) of 688 symptomatic and asymptomatic patients undergoing CEA developed MACE. Six of 276 plasma proteins were found to be significantly associated with IPH, from which only lipoprotein lipase (LPL) was associated with the post-operative risk of MACE undergoing CEA. Within the 30 day peri-operative period, high plasma LPL was independently associated with an increased risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation [SD] 1.60, 1.10 - 2.30), p = .014). From 30 days to three years, however, high LPL was associated with a lower risk of MACE (adjusted HR per SD 0.80, 0.65 - 0.99, p= .036).

CONCLUSION

High LPL concentrations were found to be associated with a higher risk of MACE in the first 30 post-operative days but with a lower risk MACE between 30 days and three years, meaning that LPL has different hazards at different time points.

Comparison of cardiovascular biomarker expression in extracellular vesicles, plasma and carotid plaque for the prediction of MACE in CEA patients

Extracellular vesicles (EV) are a novel biomarker source for diagnosis and prognosis of cardiovascular disease. A protein comparison of plasma EVs in relation to blood plasma and atherosclerotic plaque has not been performed but would provide insight into the origin and content of biomarker sources and their association with atherosclerotic progression. Using samples of 88 carotid endarterectomy patients in the Athero-Express, 92 proteins (Olink Cardiovascular III panel) were measured in citrate plasma, plasma derived LDL-EVs and atherosclerotic plaque. Proteins were correlated between sources and were related to pre-operative stroke and 3-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Plasma and EV proteins correlated moderately on average, but with substantial variability. Both showed little correlation with plaque, suggesting that these circulating biomarkers may not originate from the latter. Plaque (n = 17) contained most differentially-expressed proteins in patients with stroke, opposed to EVs (n = 6) and plasma (n = 5). In contrast, EVs contained most differentially-expressed proteins for MACE (n = 21) compared to plasma (n = 9) and plaque (n = 1). EVs appear to provide additional information about severity and progression of systemic atherosclerosis than can be obtained from plasma or atherosclerotic plaque.

Ceramides and phospholipids in plasma extracellular vesicles are associated with high risk of major cardiovascular events after carotid endarterectomy

Ceramides and phosphatidylcholines (PCs) are bioactive lipids and lipid bilayer membrane components. Distinct ceramides/PCs (ratios) predict cardiovascular outcome in patients with coronary artery disease. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are proposed biomarkers for cardiovascular disease and contain ceramides/PCs. Ceramides/PCs have not been studied in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA) nor in EVs. We therefore investigated whether levels of ceramides/PCs in plasma and EVs are associated with postoperative risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) following CEA. In 873 patients undergoing CEA of the Athero-Express biobank, we quantitatively measured seven ceramides/PCs in preoperative blood samples: Cer(d18:1/16:0), Cer(d18:1/18:0), Cer(d18:1/24:0), Cer(d18:1/24:1), PC(14:0/22:6), PC(16:0/16:0) and PC(16:0/22:5) in plasma and two plasma EV-subfractions (LDL and TEX). We analyzed the association of ceramides, PCs and their predefined ratios with the three-year postoperative risk of MACE (including stroke, myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death). A total of 138 patients (16%) developed MACE during the three-year follow-up. In the LDL-EV subfraction, higher levels of Cer(d18:1/24:1) and Cer(d18:1/16:0)/PC(16:0/22:5) ratio were significantly associated with an increased risk of MACE (adjusted HR per SD [95% CI] 1.24 [1.01–1.53] and 1.26 [1.04–1.52], respectively). In the TEX-EV subfraction, three ratios Cer(d18:1/16:0)/Cer(d18:1/24:0), Cer(d18:1/18:0)/Cer(d18:1/24:0) and Cer(d18:1/24:1)/Cer(d18:1/24:0) were positively associated with MACE (adjusted HR per SD 1.34 [1.06–1.70], 1.24 [1.01–1.51] and 1.31 [1.08–1.58], respectively). In conclusion, distinct ceramides and PCs in plasma EVs determined in preoperative blood were independently associated with an increased 3-year risk of MACE after CEA. These lipids are therefore potential markers to identify high-risk CEA patients qualifying for secondary preventive add-on therapy.

Incidence of postoperative, major, adverse cardiac events in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy: A single-center, retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the incidence of postoperative major adverse cardiac events for patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy.

METHODS

This single-center, retrospective study recruited 171 carotid endarterectomy patients between January 1999 and June 2018. Patients who received a carotid endarterectomy in conjunction with other surgery were excluded. The primary outcomes were the incidences of major adverse cardiac events (comprising myocardial infarction, significant arrhythmias, congestive heart failure, and cardiac death) within 7 days, 7-30 days, and > 30 days-1 year, postoperatively. The secondary outcomes were the factors related to major adverse cardiac events and the incidence of postoperative stroke. The patients' charts were reviewed, and direct contact was made with them to obtain information on their status post discharge.

RESULTS

The incidences of major adverse cardiac events within 7 days, 7-30 days, and >30 days-1 year of the carotid endarterectomy were 3.5% of patients (95% confidence interval: 0.008-0.063), 1.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.028), and 1.8% (95% confidence interval: 0.002-0.037), respectively. The major adverse cardiac events occurring within 7 days were arrhythmia (2.3% of patients), cardiac arrest (1.8%), myocardial infarction (1.2%), and congestive heart failure (1.2%), while the corresponding postoperative stroke rate was 4.7%.

CONCLUSION

The 7-day incidence of major adverse cardiac events after the carotid endarterectomy was 3.5%. The most common major adverse cardiac event during that period was cardiac arrhythmia.

External Validation of Risk Prediction Models to Improve Selection of Patients for Carotid Endarterectomy

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The net benefit of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is determined partly by the risk of procedural stroke or death. Current guidelines recommend CEA if 30-day risks are <6% for symptomatic stenosis and <3% for asymptomatic stenosis. We aimed to identify prediction models for procedural stroke or death after CEA and to externally validate these models in a large registry of patients from the United States.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search in MEDLINE and EMBASE for prediction models of procedural outcomes after CEA. We validated these models with data from patients who underwent CEA in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2011-2017). We assessed discrimination using C statistics and calibration graphically. We determined the number of patients with predicted risks that exceeded recommended thresholds of procedural risks to perform CEA.

RESULTS

After screening 788 reports, 15 studies describing 17 prediction models were included. Nine were developed in populations including both asymptomatic and symptomatic patients, 2 in symptomatic and 5 in asymptomatic populations. In the external validation cohort of 26 293 patients who underwent CEA, 702 (2.7%) developed a stroke or died within 30-days. C statistics varied between 0.52 and 0.64 using all patients, between 0.51 and 0.59 using symptomatic patients, and between 0.49 to 0.58 using asymptomatic patients. The Ontario Carotid Endarterectomy Registry model that included symptomatic status, diabetes, heart failure, and contralateral occlusion as predictors, had C statistic of 0.64 and the best concordance between predicted and observed risks. This model identified 4.5% of symptomatic and 2.1% of asymptomatic patients with procedural risks that exceeded recommended thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

Of the 17 externally validated prediction models, the Ontario Carotid Endarterectomy Registry risk model had most reliable predictions of procedural stroke or death after CEA and can inform patients about procedural hazards and help focus CEA toward patients who would benefit most from it.

Long-term outcomes of symptomatic and asymptomatic patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy in an average-volume community hospital

BACKGROUND

Long-term benefit of carotid endarectomy has not yet been fully investigated in average volume centers. Thus our purpose is to evaluate long-term results of carotid endarterectomies at a medium-volume hospital.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of carotid artery stenosis operated between 2008 and 2017 in a community hospital was done. Demographic and postoperative outcomes were evaluated in short and long-term by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

RESULTS

167 procedures in 159 patients were included. Average age was 72 years, and 65% were men. Twenty-nine percent of the patients were symptomatic and the rest asymptomatic. Median hospitalization was 3 (IQR 3-4) days and the mean follow-up was 56 months. No hospital mortality was recorded. At 120-month follow-up, freedom of stroke was 97.4%, death 97.3%, restenosis, 98.7% and all combined events 92.9% (log rank p = .042) Combined event-free survival was 84.4% in symptomatic patients, and 96.1% in asymptomatic patients (log rank p = .025).

CONCLUSIONS

In a medium-volume hospital combined event-free survival was 84.4% in symptomatic patients and 96.1% in asymptomatic at a 10-year follow-up.

Pre-Operative Plasma Extracellular Vesicle Proteins are Associated with a High Risk of Long Term Secondary Major Cardiovascular Events in Patients Undergoing Carotid Endarterectomy

OBJECTIVE

Patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA) maintain a substantial residual risk of major cardiovascular events (MACE). Improved risk stratification is warranted to select high risk patients qualifying for secondary add on therapy. Plasma extracellular vesicles (EVs) are involved in atherothrombotic processes and their content has been related to the presence and recurrence of cardiovascular events. The association between pre-operative levels of five cardiovascular disease related proteins in plasma EVs and the post-operative risk of MACE was assessed.

METHODS

In 864 patients undergoing CEA from 2002 to 2016 included in the Athero-Express biobank, three plasma EV subfractions (low density lipoprotein [LDL], high density lipoprotein [HDL], and tiny extracellular vesicles [TEX]) were isolated from pre-operative blood samples. Using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay, five proteins were quantified in each EV subfraction: cystatin C, serpin C1, serpin G1, serpin F2, and CD14. The association between EV protein levels and the three year post-operative risk of MACE (any stroke, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death) was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses.

RESULTS

During a median follow up of three years (interquartile range 2.2 - 3.0), 137 (16%) patients developed MACE. In the HDL-EV subfraction, increased levels of CD14, cystatin C, serpin F2, and serpin C1 were associated with an increased risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratios per one standard deviation increase of 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-1.48; 1.22, 95% CI 1.06-1.42; 1.36, 95% CI 1.16-1.61; and 1.29, 95% CI 1.10-1.51; respectively), independently of cardiovascular risk factors. No significant associations were found for serpin G1. CD14 improved the predictive value of the clinical model encompassing cardiovascular risk factors (net re-classification index = 0.16, 95% CI 0.08-0.21).

CONCLUSION

EV derived pre-operative plasma levels of cystatin C, serpin C1, CD14, and serpin F2 were independently associated with an increased long term risk of MACE after CEA and are thus markers for residual cardiovascular risk. EV derived CD14 levels could improve the identification of high risk patients who may benefit from secondary preventive add on therapy in order to reduce future risk of MACE.

Aortic Valve Sclerosis as an Important Predictor of Long-Term Mortality in Patients With Carotid Atheromatous Plaque Requiring Carotid Endarterectomy

Background: A strong association between aortic valve sclerosis (AVSc), the earliest manifestation of calcific aortic valve disease, and atherosclerosis exists. The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive capabilities of AVSc on long-term all-cause mortality, in patients requiring carotid endarterectomy (CEA).

Methods and Results: 806 consecutive CEA patients were enrolled. Preoperative echocardiography was used to assess AVSc. Computed tomography angiography was applied for plaque characterization. Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox linear regression, and area under the receiving operator characteristic (AUC) curve analyses were used to evaluate the predictive capability of AVSc. Overall, 348 of 541 patients had AVSc (64%). Age, diabetes, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were associated with AVSc. In the 5-year follow-up, AVSc group had a mortality rate of 16.7% while in no-AVSc group was 7.8%. Independent predictors of all-cause mortality were age, sex, eGFR, left ventricular ejection fraction, and AVSc. After adjustments, AVSc was associated with a significant increase in all-cause mortality risk (hazard ratio, HR = 1.9; 95%CI: 1.04–3.54; p = 0.038). We stratify our cohort based on carotid atheromatous plaque-type: soft, calcified, and mixed-fibrotic. In patients with mixed-fibrotic plaques, the mortality rate of AVSc patients was 15.5% compared to 2.4% in no-AVSc patients. In this group, AVSc was associated with an increased long-term all-cause mortality risk with an adjusted HR of 12.8 (95%CI: 1.71–96.35; p = 0.013), and the AUC, combing eGFR and AVSc was 0.77 (p < 0.001).

Conclusions: Our findings indicate that AVSc together with eGFR may be used to improve long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing CEA surgery.

Electronic Health Record-Based Prediction of 1-Year Risk of Incident Cardiac Dysrhythmia: Prospective Case-Finding Algorithm Development and Validation Study

Background

Cardiac dysrhythmia is currently an extremely common disease. Severe arrhythmias often cause a series of complications, including congestive heart failure, fainting or syncope, stroke, and sudden death.

Objective

The aim of this study was to predict incident arrhythmia prospectively within a 1-year period to provide early warning of impending arrhythmia.

Methods

Retrospective (1,033,856 individuals enrolled between October 1, 2016, and October 1, 2017) and prospective (1,040,767 individuals enrolled between October 1, 2017, and October 1, 2018) cohorts were constructed from integrated electronic health records in Maine, United States. An ensemble learning workflow was built through multiple machine learning algorithms. Differentiating features, including acute and chronic diseases, procedures, health status, laboratory tests, prescriptions, clinical utilization indicators, and socioeconomic determinants, were compiled for incident arrhythmia assessment. The predictive model was retrospectively trained and calibrated using an isotonic regression method and was prospectively validated. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

Results

The cardiac dysrhythmia case-finding algorithm (retrospective: AUROC 0.854; prospective: AUROC 0.827) stratified the population into 5 risk groups: 53.35% (555,233/1,040,767), 44.83% (466,594/1,040,767), 1.76% (18,290/1,040,767), 0.06% (623/1,040,767), and 0.003% (27/1,040,767) were in the very low-risk, low-risk, medium-risk, high-risk, and very high-risk groups, respectively; 51.85% (14/27) patients in the very high-risk subgroup were confirmed to have incident cardiac dysrhythmia within the subsequent 1 year.

Conclusions

Our case-finding algorithm is promising for prospectively predicting 1-year incident cardiac dysrhythmias in a general population, and we believe that our case-finding algorithm can serve as an early warning system to allow statewide population-level screening and surveillance to improve cardiac dysrhythmia care.

Risk Factors of Cerebral Infarction and Myocardial Infarction after Carotid Endarterectomy Analyzed by Machine Learning

Objective

The incidence of cerebral infarction and myocardial infarction is higher in patients with carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Based on the concept of coprotection of heart and brain, this study attempts to screen the related factors of early cerebral infarction and myocardial infarction after CEA with the method of machine learning to provide clinical data for the prevention of postoperative cerebral infarction and myocardial infarction.

Methods

443 patients who received CEA operation under general anesthesia within 2 years were collected as the research objects. The demographic data, previous medical history, degree of neck vascular stenosis, blood pressure at all time points during the perioperative period, the time of occlusion, whether to place the shunt, and the time of hospital stay, whether to have cerebral infarction and myocardial infarction were collected. The machine learning model was established, and stable variables were selected based on single-factor analysis.

Results

The incidence of cerebral infarction was 1.4% (6/443) and that of myocardial infarction was 2.3% (10/443). The hospitalization time of patients with cerebral infarction and myocardial infarction was longer than that of the control group (8 (7, 15) days vs. 7 (5, 8) days, P = 0.002). The stable related factors were screened out by the xgboost model. The importance score (F score) was as follows: average arterial pressure during occlusion was 222 points, body mass index was 159 points, average arterial pressure postoperation was 156 points, the standard deviation of systolic pressure during occlusion was 153 points, diastolic pressure during occlusion was 146 points, mean arterial pressure after entry was 143 points, systolic pressure during occlusion was 121 points, and age was 117 points.

Conclusion

Eight factors, such as blood pressure, body mass index, and age, may be related to the postoperative cerebral infarction and myocardial infarction in patients with CEA. The machine learning method deserves further study.

Elevated Lp(a) (Lipoprotein[a]) Levels Increase Risk of 30-Day Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients Following Carotid Endarterectomy

Background and Purpose:

General population studies have shown that elevated Lp(a) (lipoprotein[a]) levels are an emerging risk factor for cardiovascular disease and subsequent cardiovascular events. The role of Lp(a) for the risk of secondary MACE in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is unknown. Our objective is to assess the association of elevated Lp(a) levels with the risk of secondary MACE in patients undergoing CEA.

Methods:

Lp(a) concentrations were determined in preoperative blood samples of 944 consecutive patients with CEA included in the Athero-Express Biobank Study. During 3-year follow-up, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), consisting of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death, were documented.

Results:

After 3 years follow-up, Kaplan-Meier cumulative event rates for MACE were 15.4% in patients with high Lp(a) levels (>137 nmol/L; >80th cohort percentile) and 10.2% in patients with low Lp(a) levels (≤137 nmol/L; ≤80th cohort percentile; log-rank test: P =0.047). Cox regression analyses adjusted for conventional cardiovascular risk factors revealed a significant association between high Lp(a) levels and 3-year MACE with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.69 (95% CI, 1.07–2.66). One-third of MACE occurred within 30 days after CEA, with an adjusted hazard ratio for the 30-day risk of MACE of 2.05 (95% CI, 1.01–4.17). Kaplan-Meier curves from time point 30 days to 3 years onward revealed no significant association between high Lp(a) levels and MACE. Lp(a) levels were not associated with histological carotid plaque characteristics.

Conclusions:

High Lp(a) levels (>137 nmol/L; >80th cohort percentile) are associated with an increased risk of 30-day MACE after CEA. This identifies elevated Lp(a) levels as a new potential risk factor for secondary cardiovascular events in patients after carotid surgery. Future studies are required to investigate whether Lp(a) levels might be useful in guiding treatment algorithms for carotid intervention.

Predictive Score of Adverse Events After Carotid Endarterectomy: The NSQIP Registry Carotid Endarterectomy Scale

Background

The goal of this study was to create a comprehensive, integer‐weighted predictive scale of adverse events after carotid endarterectomy (CEA), which may augment risk stratification and patient counseling.

Methods and Results

The targeted carotid files from the prospective NSQIP (National Surgical Quality Improvement Program) registry (2011–2013) comprised the derivation population. Multivariable logistic regression evaluated predictors of a 30‐day adverse event (stroke, myocardial infarction, or death), the effect estimates of which were used to build a weighted predictive scale that was validated using the 2014 to 2015 NSQIP registry release. A total of 10 766 and 8002 patients were included in the derivation and the validation populations, in whom 4.0% and 3.7% developed an adverse event, respectively. The NSQIP registry CEA scale included 14 variables; the highest points were allocated for insulin‐dependent diabetes mellitus, high‐risk cardiac physiological characteristics, admission source other than home, an emergent operation, American Society of Anesthesiologists’ classification IV to V, modified Rankin Scale score ≥2, and presentation with a stroke. NSQIP registry CEA score was predictive of an adverse event (concordance=0.67), stroke or death (concordance=0.69), mortality (concordance=0.76), an extended hospitalization (concordance=0.73), and a nonroutine discharge (concordance=0.83) in the validation population, as well as among symptomatic and asymptomatic subgroups (P<0.001). In the validation population, patients with an NSQIP registry CEA scale score >8 and 17 had 30‐day stroke or death rates >3% and 6%, the recommended thresholds for asymptomatic and symptomatic patients, respectively.

Conclusions

The NSQIP registry CEA scale predicts adverse outcomes after CEA and can risk stratify patients with both symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid stenosis using different thresholds for each population.

The SAPPHIRE criteria, history of myocardial infarction and diabetes predict adverse outcomes following carotid endarterectomy similar to stenting

Aims

Identifying factors associated with worse outcome following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is important to improve prevention of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), yet rarely used for registries. We intended to identify predictors of MACCE following CEA as recently analysed for stenting.

Methods and results

Patients undergoing CEA at 2 centers over 13 years were entered into a database. Baseline clinical characteristics, procedural factors and a panel of clinical and lesion-related high-risk features (SHR) and exclusion criteria (SE), empirically compiled for stratification in the SAPPHIRE trial, were differentially analysed using Cox regressions. The analysis included 748 operations; 262 (35%) asymptomatic, 208 (28%) with previous strokes, and 278 (37%) with transient ischemic attacks (TIA). The overall 30-day MACCE rate was 6.7%, 5.0% in asymptomatic and 7.6% in symptomatic patients. Previous MI (HR 2.045, p = 0.022), diabetes (HR 2.111, p = 0.011) and symptomatic patients (HR 2.045, p = 0.044) were independently associated with MACCE. SE patients (n = 81) had a MACCE rate of 13.6%; the MACCE rate of the remainder dropped to 5.8% (4.7% in asymptomatic and 6.5% in symptomatic patients). Hazard ratio for SHR patients was 2.069 (CI 1.087–3.941) and 2.389 for SE (CI 1.223–4.666), each compared to all patients with lower risk and adjusted for symptomatic status. Among SHR and SE criteria NYHA 3–4, contralateral occlusions and intraluminal thrombus were significant determinants and MI < 4 weeks before CEA showed a strong trend (p = 0.05).

Conclusion

Patients identified by SHR and SE criteria, prior MI and diabetes warrant increased attention to prevent MACCE following CEA.

Graphic abstract

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00392-019-01546-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Poor long-term outcomes after carotid endarterectomy: a retrospective analysis of two portuguese centers

Objetives. Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is an established treatment for carotid stenosis (CS). However, this procedure is not risk-free and it is insufficient to control disseminated atherosclerosis. Our aim was to determine long-term cardiovascular morbidity and mortality after CEA and identify associated risk predictors. Design. Consecutive cohorts of CEAs performed between 2010 and 2018 in two Portuguese hospitals were retrospectively analysed. The major end-points were acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Results. 248 patients (mean age 69 years; 79% male) were enrolled in the study. 24% had postoperative complications. At 52 months median follow-up, 9 ± 2.0% (mean ± standard error) of patients experienced an acute myocardial infarction (AMI), 12 ± 2.4% a stroke and 26 ± 3.2% a MACE. All-cause mortality rate was 21 ± 3.0%. Multivariate analysis identified coronary artery disease (CAD) as significant predictor of AMI (p < .001; Hazard Ratio (HR):9.628; 95% Confidence Interval (95%CI):2.805-33.046), whereas no statistically significant risk factor of stroke was found. Predictors of death included left sided CS (p = .042; HR:1.886; 95%CI:1.024-3.475), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (p = .007; HR:2.352; 95%CI:1.266-4.372) and anticoagulant medication (p = .015; HR:2.107; 95%CI:1.216-6.026), while statin use was significantly protective (p = .049; HR:0.482; 95%CI:0.233-0.998). Concerning MACE, male gender (p = .040; HR:1.709; 95%CI:1.025-2.849), tobacco use (p = .004; HR:2.181; 95%CI:1.277-3.726), CAD (p = .002; HR:2.235; 95%CI:1.340-3.727) and CKD (p < .001; HR:3.029; 95%CI:1.745-5.258) were risk predictors. Conclusions. Patients continue to have high rates of AMI, MACE and death after CEA. Prior CAD is a risk factor for future AMI, whereas CKD is a significant predictor of MACE and death. Aggressive best medical treatment and risk factors modification should be advised in all patients with systemic atherosclerosis.

High Levels of (Un)Switched Memory B Cells Are Associated With Better Outcome in Patients With Advanced Atherosclerotic Disease

BACKGROUND

Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory lipid disorder and the main underlying pathology of acute ischemic events. Despite a vast amount of data from murine atherosclerosis models, evidence of B-cell involvement in human atherosclerotic disease is limited. We therefore investigated the association of circulating B-cell subtypes with the occurrence of secondary cardiovascular events in advanced atherosclerotic disease.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This cohort study consists of 168 patients who were included in the Athero-Express biobank between 2009 and 2011. Before surgery, peripheral blood mononuclear cells were isolated and stored in liquid nitrogen. After gentle thawing of the peripheral blood mononuclear cells, different B-cell subtypes including naïve, (un)switched memory, and CD27+CD43+ B1-like B cells, were analyzed by flow cytometry. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze associations between B-cell subtypes, circulating antibodies and secondary cardiovascular manifestations during the 3-year follow-up period. Mean age was 70.1±9.6 years, males represented 62.8% of the population, and 54 patients had secondary manifestations during follow-up. High numbers of unswitched memory cells were protective against secondary outcome (hazard ratio, 0.30 [95% CI, 0.13-0.69]; P<0.01). Similar results were obtained for the switched memory cells that also showed to be protective against secondary outcome (hazard ratio, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.14-0.77]; P=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

A high number of (un)switched memory B cells is associated with better outcome following carotid artery endarterectomy. These findings suggest a potential role for B-cell subsets in prediction and prevention of secondary cardiovascular events in patients with atherosclerosis.

Time-dependent trends in cardiovascular adverse events during follow-up after carotid or iliofemoral endarterectomy

BACKGROUND

Recent observations have suggested a decline in vulnerable carotid artery and iliofemoral atherosclerotic plaque characteristics over the past decade. The aim of this study was to determine whether, in the presence of clinically manifest carotid or peripheral artery disease, secondary adverse cardiovascular events decreased over this period.

METHODS

Patients included in the Athero-Express biobank between 2003 and 2012 were analysed. During 3-year follow-up, composite cardiovascular endpoints were documented yearly, including: myocardial infarction, coronary interventions, stroke, peripheral interventions and cardiovascular death. The major cardiovascular endpoint consisted of myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

Some 1684 patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and another 530 who had iliofemoral endarterectomy (IFE) were analysed. In total, 405 (25·2 per cent) and 236 (45·9 per cent) patients had a composite cardiovascular endpoint within 3 years after CEA and IFE respectively. Corrected for possible confounders, the percentage of patients with a secondary cardiovascular event after CEA did not change over time (hazard ratio (HR) 0·91, 95 per cent c.i. 0·65 to 1·28; P = 0·590, for 2011-2012 versus 2003-2004). In patients who had IFE, the incidence of secondary cardiovascular events significantly decreased only in the last 2 years (HR 0·62, 0·41 to 0·94; P = 0·024), owing to a decrease in peripheral (re)interventions in 2011-2012 (HR 0·59, 0·37 to 0·94; P = 0·028). No decrease in major cardiovascular events was observed in either group.

CONCLUSION

In patients who had undergone either CEA or IFE there was no evidence of a decrease in all secondary cardiovascular events. There were no differences in major cardiovascular events.

Impact of coexisting multivessel coronary artery disease on short-term outcomes and long-term survival of patients treated with carotid stenting

INTRODUCTION

Systemic atherosclerosis can result in both coronary artery disease (CAD) and carotid artery disease. Recently it has been shown that patients with CAD have a higher incidence of microembolization during carotid artery stenting (CAS), and it has been hypothesized that they could be at higher risk in this intervention.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated an institutional registry with 437 consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography and CAS to evaluate their short-term outcomes and long-term survival with regard to the presence of coexisting multivessel coronary artery disease (MVD).

RESULTS

We performed 220 CAS procedures in MVD patients and 318 CAS procedures in non-MVD patients. The incidence of in-hospital CAS-related adverse events was 2.7% and 2.5% in the MVD and non-MVD groups, respectively (p = 0.88). At 30 days, there was no significant difference between the groups in terms of the number of patients with adverse events (hierarchically death/stroke/myocardial infarction; 8.8% vs. 5.5%; p = 0.18). The median duration of follow-up was 4.23 years. Survival free of all-cause mortality at 1, 3 and 5 years was 90% (95% CI: 86-94%), 79% (95% CI: 73-85%) and 70% (95% CI: 64-77%), and 92% (95% CI: 89-95%), 85% (95% CI: 80-90%) and 76% (95% CI: 70-82%) for the MVD and non-MVD groups (p = 0.02), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that patients with MVD combined with carotid artery disease are probably not at higher risk of early post-CAS adverse clinical events, but they have significantly worse long-term survival rates.

Long-term Survival after Carotid Endarterectomy in a Population with a Low Coronary Heart Disease Fatality: Implications for Decision Making

BACKGROUND

According to the current guidelines, long-term survival is an important factor influencing decision making in patients with severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Nevertheless, data are lacking for populations with a low incidence of coronary heart disease, the main cause of death among these patients. We aimed to assess the long-term survival after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in a Mediterranean hospital.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis was conducted of 291 consecutive patients (main age 69 years, 78.7% men) who underwent a CEA for symptomatic (n = 147, 50.5%) or asymptomatic (n = 144, 49.5%) carotid stenosis in 2005-2014 at the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Spain). A Kaplan-Meier life table was done and a multivariable Cox regression model was built for the analysis of the long-term survival-associated risk factors.

RESULTS

The immediate combined mortality and/or neurological morbidity rate was 2.7%. The mean follow-up was 55 months (complete in 99.7%). During follow-up 62 patients (21.3%) died, being cancer the most frequent cause (35.5%). Cumulative 3- and 5-year survival rates were 89% and 81%, respectively. Independent risk factors (Cox regression) related to survival included age (hazards ratio [HR] 1.09, P < 0.001), an American Society of Anesthesiologists class IV score (HR 4.04, P = 0.015), and the preoperative hemoglobin value (HR 0.73, P < 0.001). The discrimination of the resulting model was 0.719 (95% confidence interval 0.644-0.794). Previous symptomatic carotid stenosis was not related to long-term survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term survival of patients submitted to CEA in our series lies in the lower limit of the estimated range by other groups and is markedly related to cancer. Our study suggests that predictive models for survival are influenced by regional characteristics.

Attributable fractions, modifiable risk factors and risk stratification using a risk score for peri-implant pathology

PURPOSE

This study aimed to estimate the impact of risk factors for peri-implant pathology, to identify potentially modifiable factors, and to evaluate the accuracy of the risk algorithm, risk scores and risk stratification.

METHODS

This retrospective case-control study with 1275 patients (255 cases; 1020 controls) retrieved a model according to the predictors: history of Periodontitis, bacterial plaque, bleeding, bone level, lack of passive fit or non-optimal screw joint, metal-ceramic restoration, proximity to other implants/teeth, and smoking habits. Outcome measures were the attributable fraction; the positive and negative likelihood ratios at different disease cut-off points illustrated by the area under the curve statistic.

RESULTS

Six predictors may be modified or controlled directly by either the patient or the clinician, accounting for a reduction in up to 95% of the peri-implant pathology cases. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 9.69 and 0.13, respectively; the area under the curve was 0.96; a risk score was developed, making the complex statistical model useful to clinicians.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results, six predictors for the incidence of peri-implant pathology can be modified to significantly improve the outcome. It was possible to stratify patients per risk category according to the risk score, providing a tool for clinicians to support their decision-making process.

Risk Factors For Stroke, Myocardial Infarction, or Death Following Carotid Endarterectomy: Results From the International Carotid Stenting Study

OBJECTIVES

Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is standard treatment for symptomatic carotid artery stenosis but carries a risk of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), or death. This study investigated risk factors for these procedural complications occurring within 30 days of endarterectomy in the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS).

METHODS

Patients with recently symptomatic carotid stenosis >50% were randomly allocated to endarterectomy or stenting. Analysis is reported of patients in ICSS assigned to endarterectomy and limited to those in whom CEA was initiated. The occurrence of stroke, MI, or death within 30 days of the procedure was reported by investigators and adjudicated. Demographic and technical risk factors for these complications were analysed sequentially in a binomial regression analysis and subsequently in a multivariable model.

RESULTS

Eight-hundred and twenty-one patients were included in the analysis. The risk of stroke, MI, or death within 30 days of CEA was 4.0%. The risk was higher in female patients (risk ratio [RR] 1.98, 95% CI 1.02-3.87, p = .05) and with increasing baseline diastolic blood pressure (dBP) (RR 1.30 per +10 mmHg, 95% CI 1.02-1.66, p = .04). Mean baseline dBP, obtained at the time of randomization in the trial, was 78 mmHg (SD 13 mmHg). In a multivariable model, only dBP remained a significant predictor. The risk was not related to the type of surgical reconstruction, anaesthetic technique, or perioperative medication regimen. Patients undergoing CEA stayed a median of 4 days before discharge, and 21.2% of events occurred on or after the day of discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing diastolic blood pressure was the only independent risk factor for stroke, MI, or death following CEA. Cautious attention to blood pressure control following symptoms attributable to carotid stenosis could reduce the risks associated with subsequent CEA.

Long-term clinical outcomes and cardiovascular events after carotid endarterectomy

BACKGROUND

Long-term atherosclerotic adverse events are anticipated in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA); however, their incidence and risk predictors remain unknown.

METHODS

A consecutive cohort of CEAs between 1/1/2000-12/31/2007 was analyzed. End points were any stroke, coronary event (myocardial infarction, coronary bypass, or stenting), vascular interventions for critical limb ischemia, aortic aneurysm or carotid disease, and death. Survival analysis and Cox regression models were used to identify clinical predictors.

RESULTS

A total of 1,136 CEAs (bilateral, 89; mean age, 71.2 ± 9.2 years; 56.5% male; 36.3% symptomatic, and 3.9% combined with coronary bypass) were performed during the study period with a mean clinical follow-up of 60 months (0-155 months). The postoperative combined stroke and/or death rate was 2.7% and 1.9% for asymptomatic and 4.1% for symptomatic patients. Five and 10-year risks of the end points were 7.2% and 16.1% for stroke, 18.4% and 31.5% for coronary interventions, 20.6% and 28.5% for major vascular interventions, and 25.8% and 50.1% for death. Statins conferred a significant protective effect for stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 0.53; P = 0.016) and death (HR, 0.66; P < 0.0001). Baseline vascular disease predicted future vascular interventions: aortic aneurysm (HR, 1.90; P = 0.003), peripheral arterial disease (HR, 2.03; P < 0.0001), and contralateral internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis ≥50% (HR, 4.61; P < 0.0001). Renal insufficiency predicted worse outcomes for all other end points (HR, 2.21; P = 0.023 for stroke; HR, 1.62; P = 0.008 for coronary events; HR, 2.38; P < 0.0001 for death).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients undergoing CEA continue to derive long-term low stroke rate benefit but still sustain major coronary events and require vascular interventions, indicating a need for more intensive medical treatment and rigorous follow-up.

Clinical predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events during long-term follow-up after carotid endarterectomy

BACKGROUND

Those patients who undergo a carotid endarterectomy (CEA) will present a higher cardiovascular risk during follow-up than the general population. The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic factors and validate the accuracy of 3 cardiovascular risk scores as predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) during long-term follow-up after CEA.

METHODS

Observational retrospective follow-up study with 416 CEAs conducted consecutively in 385 patients from 1994 to 2011. The primary end point was MACE, single event including myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Preoperative risk factors and medical treatment at discharge were collected. A general cardiovascular risk score, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI), was used, and 2 scores specific for CEA (Halm and Tu). Descriptive analysis and Cox regression were conducted. Informed consent from patients was obtained and approval by the ethics committee.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 4.94 years. MACEs appeared in 22.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18.0-26.2%) of the series during follow-up. The MACEs rate at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, was 3.1%, 9.3%, and 15.8%, respectively. In the Cox regression model, the MACE predictor variables were: the presence of peripheral artery disease (hazard ratio [HR], 1.69; 95% CI, 1.06-2.70) and RCRI (HR,1.61; 95% CI, 1.04-2.50). The RCRI area under the curve for predicting events, with a 2.5 cutoff point, was 0.59 with 85.9% sensitivity and a positive predictive value of 25.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Peripheral artery disease and high RCRI have an independent effect on predicting MACEs. The 3 different scores have a low ability for predicting MACEs during long-term follow-up.

Clinical prediction model suitable for assessing hospital quality for patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy

Background

Assessing hospital quality in the performance of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) requires appropriate risk adjustment across hospitals with varying case mixes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model to assess the risk of in‐hospital stroke or death after CEA that could aid in the assessment of hospital quality.

Methods and Results

Patients from National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR)'s Carotid Artery Revascularization and Endarterectomy (CARE) Registry undergoing CEA without acute evolving stroke from 2005 to 2013 were included. In‐hospital stroke or death was modeled using hierarchical logistic regression with 20 candidate variables and accounting for hospital‐level clustering. Internal validation was achieved with bootstrapping; model discrimination and calibration were assessed. A total of 213 (1.7%) primary end point events occurred during 12 889 procedures. Independent predictors of stroke or death included age, prior peripheral artery disease, diabetes mellitus, prior coronary artery disease, having a symptomatic carotid lesion, having a contralateral carotid occlusion, or having New York Heart Association Class III or IV heart failure. The model was well calibrated and demonstrated moderate discriminative ability (c‐statistic 0.65). The NCDR CEA score was then developed to support simple, prospective risk quantification in the clinical setting.

Conclusions

The NCDR CEA score, comprising 7 clinical variables, predicts in‐hospital stroke or death after CEA. This model can be used to estimate hospital risk‐adjusted outcomes for CEA and to assist with the assessment of hospital quality.

Risk scoring system to predict 3-year survival in patients treated for asymptomatic carotid stenosis

OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors and stratify their effect of compromising 3-year survival in patients treated for asymptomatic carotid disease based upon recently updated guidelines from the Society for Vascular Surgery.

METHODS

Outcomes of 506 patients who underwent carotid intervention for asymptomatic carotid disease (1999-2008) were analyzed. Hospital computerized medical records were reviewed. When local records were sparse, Social Security Death Index was queried to confirm mortality. Following multivariable Cox regression analysis, a score was assigned based on the calculated hazard ratio (HR) in the following fashion: HR 1.5-1.9 = 1 point; HR 2.0-3.0 = 2 points; and HR >3 = 3 points. The sum of those points comprised the final score for each patient. Kaplan-Meier analyses were then performed to delineate survival differences.

RESULTS

Seventy patients (13.83%) did not survive beyond 3 years after the procedure. Age >80 years (HR, 1.79; P = .05; score 1), diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.99; P < .05; score 1), coronary artery intervention (HR, 2.03; P < .01; score 2), severe chronic kidney disease defined as glomerular filtration rate <30 and not on dialysis (HR, 2.46; P = .03; score 2), dialysis patients (HR, 5.67; P = .001; score 3), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 3.53; P < .001; score 3) negatively influenced 3-year survival. Patients with score ≤2 experienced 3-year mortality of 6.0%, whereas score >2 was associated with 31.6% 3-year mortality (HR, 6.10; P < .001). The score value was not associated with the stroke rate at any time point. The resultant score was validated in a separate population of patients with symptomatic carotid disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This easy predictive score underscores the association of medical risk factors with decreased 3-year survival. This finding may impact future clinical decisions for management of asymptomatic carotid disease.

Risk prediction for adverse events after carotid artery stenting in higher surgical risk patients

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The goal of carotid artery stenting is to decrease the risk of stroke or other adverse events from carotid artery disease. Choosing a treatment strategy requires patient-specific information regarding periprocedural risk of adverse neurologic events. The aim of this study was to predict individual patient risk after carotid artery stenting in patients at higher risk for carotid endarterectomy.

METHODS

Subjects enrolled in the Stenting and Angioplasty with Protection in Patients at High-Risk for Endarterectomy (SAPPHIRE) worldwide study underwent carotid artery stenting with distal protection. Only patients with at least 1 anatomic or comorbid factor associated with elevated surgical risk were included. Preprocedural factors were used to develop a model and integer-based risk score predicting stroke or death within 30 days. The model was calibrated and internally validated using bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

Ten thousand one hundred eighty-six patients were included in the analysis. The overall rate of stroke or death was 3.6% at 30 days after carotid artery stenting. Independent predictors of adverse outcomes were increased age (P=0.006), history of stroke (P<0.001), history of transient ischemic attack presentation (P=0.001), recent (<4 weeks) myocardial infarction (P=0.006), dialysis treatment (P=0.007), need for cardiac surgery in addition to carotid revascularization (P=0.005), a right-sided carotid stenosis (P=0.006), a longer carotid plaque (P=0.012), the presence of a Type II or III aortic arch (P=0.035), and a tortuous carotid arterial system (P=0.004). The optimism-adjusted C-statistic was 0.691.

CONCLUSIONS

Commonly collected clinical and anatomic variables can identify patients at high and low risk for stroke or death after carotid artery stenting.