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Colangelo G, Ribo M, Montiel E, Dominguez D, Olivé-Gadea M, Muchada M, Garcia-Tornel Á, Requena M, Pagola J, Juega J, Rodriguez-Luna D, Rodriguez-Villatoro N, Rizzo F, Taborda B, Molina CA, Rubiera M. PRERISK: A Personalized, Artificial Intelligence-Based and Statistically-Based Stroke Recurrence Predictor for Recurrent Stroke. Stroke 2024; 55:1200-1209. [PMID: 38545798 DOI: 10.1161/strokeaha.123.043691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2024] [Indexed: 04/24/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Predicting stroke recurrence for individual patients is difficult, but individualized prediction may improve stroke survivors' engagement in self-care. We developed PRERISK: a statistical and machine learning classifier to predict individual risk of stroke recurrence. METHODS We analyzed clinical and socioeconomic data from a prospectively collected public health care-based data set of 41 975 patients admitted with stroke diagnosis in 88 public health centers over 6 years (2014-2020) in Catalonia-Spain. A new stroke diagnosis at least 24 hours after the index event was considered as a recurrent stroke, which was considered as our outcome of interest. We trained several supervised machine learning models to provide individualized risk over time and compared them with a Cox regression model. Models were trained to predict early, late, and long-term recurrence risk, within 90, 91 to 365, and >365 days, respectively. C statistics and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were used to assess the accuracy of the models. RESULTS Overall, 16.21% (5932 of 36 114) of patients had stroke recurrence during a median follow-up of 2.69 years. The most powerful predictors of stroke recurrence were time from previous stroke, Barthel Index, atrial fibrillation, dyslipidemia, age, diabetes, and sex, which were used to create a simplified model with similar performance, together with modifiable vascular risk factors (glycemia, body mass index, high blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco dependence, and alcohol abuse). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.76 (95% CI, 0.74-0.77), 0.60 (95% CI, 0.58-0.61), and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) for early, late, and long-term recurrence risk, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Cox risk class probability were 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72-0.75), 0.59 (95% CI, 0.57-0.61), and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.66-0.70); machine learning approaches (random forest and AdaBoost) showed statistically significant improvement (P<0.05) over the Cox model for the 3 recurrence time periods. Stroke recurrence curves can be simulated for each patient under different degrees of control of modifiable factors. CONCLUSIONS PRERISK is a novel approach that provides a personalized and fairly accurate risk prediction of stroke recurrence over time. The model has the potential to incorporate dynamic control of risk factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giorgio Colangelo
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Nora Health, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., E.M.)
| | - Marc Ribo
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Estefanía Montiel
- Nora Health, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., E.M.)
| | - Didier Dominguez
- Programa d'Analítica de Dades per a la Recerca i la Innovació en Salut, Agència de Qualitat i Avaluació Sanitàries de Catalunya, Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, Carrer de Roc Boronat, Barcelona, Spain (D.D.)
| | - Marta Olivé-Gadea
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Marian Muchada
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Álvaro Garcia-Tornel
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Manuel Requena
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Jorge Pagola
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Jesús Juega
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - David Rodriguez-Luna
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Noelia Rodriguez-Villatoro
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Federica Rizzo
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Belén Taborda
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Carlos A Molina
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
| | - Marta Rubiera
- Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (G.C., M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
- Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Stroke Unit, Neurology Department, Passeig de la Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain (M. Ribo, M.O.-G., M.M., Á.G.-T., M. Requena, J.P., J.J., D.R.-L., N.R.-V., F.R., B.T., C.A.M., M. Rubiera)
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Jin Y, Ma M, Yan Y, Guo Y, Feng Y, Chen C, Zhong Y, Huang K, Xia H, Libo Y, Si Y, Zou J. A convenient machine learning model to predict full stomach and evaluate the safety and comfort improvements of preoperative oral carbohydrate in patients undergoing elective painless gastrointestinal endoscopy. Ann Med 2023; 55:2292778. [PMID: 38109932 PMCID: PMC10732178 DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2023.2292778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Assessment of the patient's gastric contents is the key to avoiding aspiration incidents, however, there is no effective method to determine whether elective painless gastrointestinal endoscopy (GIE) patients have a full stomach or an empty stomach. And previous studies have shown that preoperative oral carbohydrates (POCs) can improve the discomfort induced by fasting, but there are different perspectives on their safety. This study aimed to develop a convenient, accurate machine learning (ML) model to predict full stomach. And based on the model outcomes, evaluate the safety and comfort improvements of POCs in empty- and full stomach groups. METHODS We enrolled 1386 painless GIE patients between October 2022 and January 2023 in Nanjing First Hospital, and 1090 patients without POCs were used to construct five different ML models to identify full stomach. The metrics of discrimination and calibration validated the robustness of the models. For the best-performance model, we further interpreted it through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and constructed a web calculator to facilitate clinical use. We evaluated the safety and comfort improvements of POCs by propensity score matching (PSM) in the two groups, respectively. RESULTS Random Forest (RF) model showed the greatest discrimination with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.837 [95% confidence interval (CI): 79.1-88.2], F1 71.5%, and best calibration with a Brier score of 15.2%. The web calculator can be visited at https://medication.shinyapps.io/RF_model/. PSM results demonstrated that POCs significantly reduced the full stomach incident in empty stomach group (p < 0.05), but no differences in full stomach group (p > 0.05). Comfort improved in both groups and was more significant in empty stomach group. CONCLUSIONS The developed convenient RF model predicted full stomach with high accuracy and interpretability. POCs were safe and comfortably improved in both groups, with more benefit in empty stomach group. These findings may guide the patients' gastrointestinal preparation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuzhan Jin
- School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Mingtao Ma
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Anesthesiology, Leping People’s Hospital, Jiangxi, China
| | - Yuqing Yan
- School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yaoyi Guo
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yue Feng
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Chen Chen
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yi Zhong
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Kaizong Huang
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Huaming Xia
- Nanjing Xiaheng Network System Co., Ltd., Nanjing, China
| | - Yan Libo
- Jiangsu Kaiyuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Nanjing, China
| | - Yanna Si
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jianjun Zou
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
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Shen Z, Huang Y, Zhou Y, Jia J, Zhang X, Shen T, Li S, Wang S, Song Y, Cheng J. Association between red blood cell distribution width and ischemic stroke recurrence in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a 10-years retrospective cohort analysis. Aging (Albany NY) 2023; 15:3052-3063. [PMID: 37053005 DOI: 10.18632/aging.204657] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/24/2023] [Indexed: 04/14/2023]
Abstract
Numerous studies have reported that a higher red blood cell distribution width (RDW) level was associated with adverse outcomes in patients with the first stroke. However, no studies have examined the association between RDW and recurrent ischemic stroke. We performed a population-based cohort data analysis from 2007 to 2017. Baseline RDW was measured in 6402 first ischemic stroke participants, who were followed for about five years on average. During 62 months of median follow-up, 205 participants (3.20%) reported a recurrence (self-reported). RDW showed a nonlinear relationship with the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence. When RDW was assessed as quartiles (quartile 1, RDW<12.4; quartile 2, 12.4 to 12.8; quartile 3,12.8 to 13.3, quartile4, RDW>13.3), compared with the reference group (quartile 1), the hazard ratios (HRs) of ischemic stroke recurrence were 1.372 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.671-2.805, P=0.386) in quartile 2, 1.835 (95% CI=1.222-2.755, P=0.003) in quartile 3, and 1.732 (95% CI=1.114-2.561, P<0.001) in quartile 4. The trend test was significant (P<0.001). When quartiles 3 and 4 were combined, the adjusted HR of ischemic stroke recurrence was 1.439 (95% CI=1.330-1.556, P<0.001) compared with the combined quartiles 1 and 2 subgroups. This study demonstrated that elevated RDW levels were positively associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. RDW can provide a new perspective for initial risk assessment and identify high-risk patients early. Further research is required to confirm our results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhan Shen
- Department of Geratology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Neurology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ying Huang
- Department of Neurology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
- Department of General Medicine, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ying Zhou
- Department of Neurology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
- Department of General Medicine, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jingying Jia
- Department of Central Laboratory, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xian Zhang
- Department of Geratology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Neurology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Tingting Shen
- Department of Neurology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
- Department of General Medicine, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Shengjie Li
- Shanghai Internet Hospital Engineering Technology Research Center, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Siyang Wang
- Department of Geratology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Neurology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yunxiao Song
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jie Cheng
- Department of Geratology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Neurology, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Urinary Surgery, Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
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