Predictors of late asthmatic response. Logistic regression and classification tree analyses

Rhinoconjunctivitis severity induced by cat exposure influences early and late asthmatic responses: Evidence from an environmental exposure chamber

BACKGROUND

The impact of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis on the early (EAR) and late asthmatic response (LAR) has yet to be assessed during optimal allergen exposure conditions.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess predictive factors of the EAR and LAR and to evaluate the relation between rhinitis, conjunctivitis and asthma induced by cat allergen exposure in an environmental exposure chamber (EEC).

METHODS

Data from two cohort studies involving asthmatic patients with cat allergy who performed a cat allergen exposure challenge in ALYATEC EEC were analysed. Spirometry, visual analogue scale (VAS) for asthma, VAS for rhinitis, Total Nasal Symptoms Score, Total Ocular Symptoms Score (TOSS), Rhinoconjunctivitis Total Symptoms Score and Abelson score were used to assess asthma, rhinitis and conjunctivitis during and after exposure.

RESULTS

An EAR occurred in 65.1% of patients, 32.1% of whom had a LAR. The diameter of the prick test to cat allergens and non-specific bronchial hypersensitivity level were independent risk factors for EAR (p < .05). No independent risk factors for LAR were identified. Rhinoconjunctivitis severity during exposure correlated with the asthma VAS during EAR and LAR (p < .05). Allergen exposure time needed to trigger an EAR correlated with the Abelson score during exposure (p < .05). The asthma VAS and TOSS during exposure correlated with faster LAR occurrence (p < .05).

CONCLUSION

Prick test size and non-specific bronchial hypersensitivity level were confirmed as independent predictive factors of EAR during allergen exposure in an EEC. This study demonstrated the relation between the severity of rhinitis, conjunctivitis and asthma induced by allergen exposure for both EAR and LAR.

Neutrophil phenotypes in bronchial airways differentiate single from dual responding allergic asthmatics

INTRODUCTION

Allergic asthmatics with both an early (EAR) and a late allergic reaction (LAR) following allergen exposure are termed 'dual responders' (DR), while 'single responders' (SR) only have an EAR. Mechanisms that differentiate DR from SR are largely unknown, particularly regarding the role and phenotypes of neutrophils. Therefore, we aimed to study neutrophils in DR and SR asthmatics.

METHODS

Thirty-four allergic asthmatics underwent an inhaled allergen challenge, samples were collected before and up to 24 h post-challenge. Cell differentials were counted from bronchial lavage, alveolar lavage and blood; and tissue neutrophils were quantified in immune-stained bronchial biopsies. Lavage neutrophil nuclei lobe segmentation was used to classify active (1-4 lobes) from suppressive neutrophils (≥5 lobes). Levels of transmigration markers: soluble (s)CD62L and interleukin-1Ra, and activity markers: neutrophil elastase (NE), DNA-histone complex and dsDNA were measured in lavage fluid and plasma.

RESULTS

Compared with SR at baseline, DR had more neutrophils in their bronchial airways at baseline, both in the lavage (p = .0031) and biopsies (p = .026) and elevated bronchial neutrophils correlated with less antitransmigratory IL-1Ra levels (r = -0.64). DR airways had less suppressive neutrophils and more 3-lobed (active) neutrophils (p = .029) that correlated with more bronchial lavage histone (p = .020) and more plasma NE (p = .0016). Post-challenge, DR released neutrophil extracellular trap factors in the blood earlier and had less pro-transmigratory sCD62L during the late phase (p = .0076) than in SR.

CONCLUSION

DR have a more active airway neutrophil phenotype at baseline and a distinct neutrophil response to allergen challenge that may contribute to the development of an LAR. Therefore, neutrophil activity should be considered during targeted diagnosis and bio-therapeutic development for DR.

Comparison of bronchial and nasal allergen provocation in children and adolescents with bronchial asthma and house dust mite sensitization

BACKGROUND

Bronchial allergen provocation (BAP) is an established tool for the diagnosis of allergy in patients with asthma, but its use is limited by the potential risk of severe asthmatic reactions. Nasal provocation testing (NPT) may be an alternative safe method and does not require sophisticated equipment.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the concordance of both methods in patients with asthma and house dust mite (HDM) sensitization.

METHODS

A total of 112 patients with HDM sensitization underwent BAP and had the following parameters analysed: decrease in FEV1, exhaled NO, and total and specific IgE. Within 12 weeks, NPT with HDM was performed in 74 patients with a median age of 9 years (range, 5-16 years). The results were evaluated using the Lebel score which quantifies major symptoms like rhinorrhea, nasal obstruction, sneezes and minor symptoms, such as pruritus, conjunctivitis and pharyngitis.

RESULTS

Fifty-seven of 74 patients had an early asthmatic reaction, of which 41 were identified using the Lebel score. The Lebel score had a sensitivity of 71.9% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 89.1%. In addition, an eNO ≥ 10 ppb (AUC 0.78), a specific IgE Dermatophagoïdes pteronyssinus ≥ 25.6 kU/L (AUC 0.76) and a specific IgE Dermatophagoïdes farinae ≥ 6.6 kU/L (AUC 0.78) were good predictors of an early asthmatic reaction.

CONCLUSION

A sequential use of NPT prior to BAP is justified to establish the relevance of HDM allergy. In patients with a negative NPT, BAP is still recommended to rule out a HDM-induced asthmatic reaction.

Clinical Characterization and Predictors of IOS-Defined Small-Airway Dysfunction in Asthma

BACKGROUND

The involvement of small airways has recently gained greater recognition in asthma. Impulse oscillometry (IOS) is a simple and noninvasive method based on the forced oscillation technique, for the detection of small-airway dysfunction (SAD).

OBJECTIVE

To identify the predictors of SAD in an unselected sample of 400 patients with physician-diagnosed asthma.

METHODS

All patients underwent standard spirometry and IOS at the first visit, and were stratified by the presence of SAD defined by IOS (fall in resistance from 5 to 20 Hz [R5-R20] > 0.07 kPa × s × L^-1). Univariable and multivariable analyses and classification tree method were used to analyze cross-sectional relationships between clinical variables and outcome (SAD).

RESULTS

SAD was present in 62% of the cohort. Subjects with SAD showed a less well-controlled asthma, according to the Global Initiative for Asthma definition, and a higher mean inhaled corticosteroid dosage use compared with subjects without SAD (both P < .001). Increased fractional exhaled nitric oxide (odds ratio [OR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.14-3.70), female sex (OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.29-4.06), smoking (OR, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.60-6.05), older age (OR, 3.08; 95% CI, 1.77-5.49), asthma-related night awakenings (OR, 3.34; 95% CI, 1.85-6.17), overweight (OR, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.99-6.85), and exercise-induced asthma symptoms (OR, 6.39; 95% CI 3.65-11.45) were independent predictors of SAD. Classification tree analysis confirmed that exercise-induced asthma, overweight, asthma-related night awakenings, smoking, and older age have potential for clinical use in distinguishing patients with SAD from those without it.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified predictors of SAD and showed that especially exercise-induced asthma, overweight, asthma-related night awakenings, smoking, and older age were strongly associated with SAD.

Allergen-induced early and late asthmatic responses to inhaled seasonal and perennial allergens

BACKGROUND

The allergen bronchoprovocation (ABP) test is a validated model to study asthma pathophysiology and response to treatments. The inhibitory effect of agents on the allergen-induced late asthmatic response (LAR) is a predictor of their efficacy in asthma treatment. However, it is difficult to predict the magnitude of a LAR, which may vary according to immune responsiveness and the type of allergen used for ABP.

AIM

To determine the relationship between the magnitudes of early asthmatic response (EAR) and LAR in mild asthmatic subjects according to the type of allergen inhaled and its determinants.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of a large database of ABPs, all performed with a common standardized methodology. Patients were either challenged with house dust mites (HDMs), animals or pollens allergens. EAR was defined as a ≥ 20% fall in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1 ) < 3 h following ABP and LAR as a ≥ 15% fall in FEV1 between 3 and 7 h post-ABP. The ratio of EAR % fall in FEV1 /LAR % fall in FEV1 was compared between the groups of subjects according to the allergen used for ABP.

RESULTS

Data from 290 subjects were analysed: 87 had an isolated EAR and 203 had a dual response (EAR + LAR). Dual responders had a significantly lower baseline PC20 , a more marked fall in FEV1 at EAR, and a trend towards higher baseline sputum eosinophil percentages. The ratio of EAR over LAR was significantly lower in HDM compared with pollen ABP, indicating a larger LAR for a similar EAR. No correlations were observed between the ratio of EAR over LAR and the various parameters recorded in the different groups analysed.

CONCLUSION

Different mechanisms may be involved in modulating the magnitude of the LAR, according to the type of allergen. HDM seems to induce a stronger LAR than pollens, animal allergens being intermediary in this regard.

Can we predict allergen-induced asthma in patients with allergic rhinitis?

BACKGROUND

A high percentage of patients with allergic rhinitis (AR) exhibit signs of bronchial hyperreactivity (BHR), and approximately 30% may develop asthma later in life.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to identify predictors for allergen-induced asthma in patients with AR.

METHODS

Hundred patients with AR selected by public posting and 20 healthy controls were enrolled. Twenty-three patients with concomitant physician-diagnosed asthma and four with a negative allergy test were excluded from further analysis. The remaining 73 subjects with AR underwent bronchial allergen provocation (BAP), which is considered the gold standard for the diagnosis of clinically relevant allergen-specific asthma. The following parameters were measured to explore predictors for an early and late asthmatic response (EAR and LAR): standardised questionnaire, skin prick test (SPT), total IgE, specific IgE to grass pollen, FEV1, PD20FEV1 methacholine, exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) and eosinophils.

RESULTS

Early asthmatic reaction was equally distributed between patients with and without signs of possible asthma by questionnaire (56.8% vs. 48.3%). The following cut-off values showed the best combination of sensitivity and specificity for an EAR: specific IgE grass pollen 18.5 kU/L (AUC 0.83), SPT 8.5 mm (AUC 0.76), total IgE 95.5 kU/L (AUC 0.73), FEV1 102.4% (AUC 0.69), PD20FEV1 methacholine 1.67 mg (AUC 0.74), eNO 18.05 ppB (AUC 0.64) and eosinophils 115/mm(3) (AUC 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

There is a considerable discordance between reported asthma signs and diagnosed disease by BAP. Simple measurement of allergen-specific IgE for grass pollen was the best predictor of allergen-induced asthma in patients with AR.

Bronchial allergen challenges in children - safety and predictors

BACKGROUND

In allergic asthma, the diagnosis of house dust mite (HDM) allergy is mainly based on the patient's history, allergy testing by the skin prick test (SPT) or the levels of allergen-specific IgE. We retrospectively analysed data from 350 bronchial provocations with HDM and related it to the following parameters: specific IgE, bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to methacholine testing (MCT) and exhaled NO (eNO).

METHODS

Approximately 350 patients (5-18 yr of age) with allergic asthma and a positive SPT to HDMs were included. To define the sensitivity and specificity for the detection method of an early asthmatic response (EAR), a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted. The accuracy was measured by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). A logistic regression model was used to predict the individual probability of a positive challenge. The results of the regression model were validated in a prospective group of n = 75 patients.

RESULTS

The following cut-off values showed the best combination of sensitivity and specificity: specific IgE Dermatophagoides farinae 19.6 kU/l (AUC, 0.88), PD(20) FEV(1) 0.13 mg methacholine (AUC, 0.73) and eNO 20.1 ppb (AUC, 0.71). The following equation predicted the individual probability of a positive challenge in the retrospective and prospective group: p = 1(.) [1 + exp[-(-1.78 + 2.46.(10) log D. far - 1.25(.10) logPD(20) metha)]](-1) , (AUC = 0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

The value of using the specific IgE and MCT as predictors was confirmed in a large number of patients. We also showed, for the first time, that the eNO predicted the EAR. The logistic regression model is repeatable with a good accuracy.

Associations between herpes simplex virus type 2 and HCV With HIV among injecting drug users in New York City: the current importance of sexual transmission of HIV

OBJECTIVES

We examined relationships between herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), a biomarker for sexual risk, and HCV, a biomarker for injecting risk, with HIV among injecting drug users (IDUs) who began injecting after large-scale expansion of syringe exchange programs in New York City.

METHODS

We recruited 337 heroin and cocaine users who began injecting in 1995 or later from persons entering drug detoxification. We administered a structured interview covering drug use and HIV risk behavior and collected serum samples for HIV, HCV, and HSV-2 testing.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence was 8%, HSV-2 39%, and HCV 55%. We found a significant association between HSV-2 and HIV (odds ratio [OR] = 7.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.9, 21.4) and no association between HCV and HIV (OR = 1.14; 95% CI = 0.5, 2.6). Black IDUs had the highest prevalence of HSV-2 (76%) and HIV (24%) but the lowest prevalence of HCV (34%).

CONCLUSIONS

Most HIV infections among these IDUs occurred through sexual transmission. The relative importance of injecting versus sexual transmission of HIV may be critical for understanding racial/ethnic disparities in HIV infection.

Magnitude of late asthmatic response to allergen in relation to baseline and allergen-induced sputum eosinophilia in mild asthmatic patients

BACKGROUND

Late asthmatic response (LAR) to allergen challenge is a validated method for studying the pathogenesis of and new treatments for asthma in the laboratory.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relationship between the magnitude of allergen-induced LAR and clinical and biological determinants, including sputum and blood eosinophil percentages and eosinophil cationic protein concentrations.

METHODS

Thirty-eight untreated mild asthmatic patients (mean age, 21.2 years) were selected for the presence of allergen-induced early asthmatic response (EAR) and LAR. Each patient measured methacholine responsiveness (provocation dose that caused a decrease in forced expiratory volume in 1 second of 20% [PD20FEV1]) at baseline, differential blood cell counts and eosinophil cationic protein levels in blood and induced sputum, and serum neutrophil chemotactic activity at baseline and 24 hours after allergen challenge.

RESULTS

A correlation was found between LAR (as area under the curve [AUC]) and sputum eosinophil percentages at baseline (r = 0.51; P = .001) and 24 hours after allergen challenge (r = 0.44; P < .007). Furthermore, we found significant correlations between AUC LAR and AUC EAR, baseline methacholine PD20FEV1, baseline blood eosinophil percentages, and baseline serum neutrophil chemotactic activity. A stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the stronger determinants of AUC LAR were baseline sputum eosinophilia and AUC EAR.

CONCLUSION

Baseline sputum eosinophilia and functional findings are determinants of the magnitude of allergen-induced LAR.

[Gender-sensitive epidemiological data analysis: methodological aspects and empirical outcomes. Illustrated by a health reporting example]

In Germany gender-sensitive approaches are part of guidelines for good epidemiological practice as well as health reporting. They are increasingly claimed to realize the gender mainstreaming strategy in research funding by the federation and federal states. This paper focuses on methodological aspects of data analysis, as an empirical data example of which serves the health report of Bremen, a population-based cross-sectional study. Health reporting requires analysis and reporting methods that are able to discover sex/gender issues of questions, on the one hand, and consider how results can adequately be communicated, on the other hand. The core question is: Which consequences do a different inclusion of the category sex in different statistical analyses for identification of potential target groups have on the results? As evaluation methods logistic regressions as well as a two-stage procedure were exploratively conducted. This procedure combines graphical models with CHAID decision trees and allows for visualising complex results. Both methods are analysed by stratification as well as adjusted by sex/gender and compared with each other. As a result, only stratified analyses are able to detect differences between the sexes and within the sex/gender groups as long as one cannot resort to previous knowledge. Adjusted analyses can detect sex/gender differences only if interaction terms have been included in the model. Results are discussed from a statistical-epidemiological perspective as well as in the context of health reporting. As a conclusion, the question, if a statistical method is gender-sensitive, can only be answered by having concrete research questions and known conditions. Often, an appropriate statistic procedure can be chosen after conducting a separate analysis for women and men. Future gender studies deserve innovative study designs as well as conceptual distinctiveness with regard to the biological and the sociocultural elements of the category sex/gender.

A comparison of regression trees, logistic regression, generalized additive models, and multivariate adaptive regression splines for predicting AMI mortality

Clinicians and health service researchers are frequently interested in predicting patient-specific probabilities of adverse events (e.g. death, disease recurrence, post-operative complications, hospital readmission). There is an increasing interest in the use of classification and regression trees (CART) for predicting outcomes in clinical studies. We compared the predictive accuracy of logistic regression with that of regression trees for predicting mortality after hospitalization with an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We also examined the predictive ability of two other types of data-driven models: generalized additive models (GAMs) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). We used data on 9484 patients admitted to hospital with an AMI in Ontario. We used repeated split-sample validation: the data were randomly divided into derivation and validation samples. Predictive models were estimated using the derivation sample and the predictive accuracy of the resultant model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in the validation sample. This process was repeated 1000 times-the initial data set was randomly divided into derivation and validation samples 1000 times, and the predictive accuracy of each method was assessed each time. The mean ROC curve area for the regression tree models in the 1000 derivation samples was 0.762, while the mean ROC curve area of a simple logistic regression model was 0.845. The mean ROC curve areas for the other methods ranged from a low of 0.831 to a high of 0.851. Our study shows that regression trees do not perform as well as logistic regression for predicting mortality following AMI. However, the logistic regression model had performance comparable to that of more flexible, data-driven models such as GAMs and MARS.

Interactions between psychosocial problems and management of asthma: who is at risk of dying?

Adjustment for psychosocial and family problems is common in epidemiological research. Recursive partitioning algorithms, such as CHi Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID), can be used to explore complex interactions between these factors and predictor and outcome variables. We investigated the nature of interactions between asthma management variables and psychosocial problems and how these interactions changed the risk of asthma mortality; 50 cases of asthma death and 201 emergency department controls were recruited. A validated questionnaire was used to collect data. An extended version of CHAID was used to identify statistically significant (p < or = 0.05) interactions controlling for asthma severity. Family problems were associated with increased risk of mortality for patients aged > 31 years (OR = 6.5; 95% CI 2.6-16.1) but not for younger patients. Males were at increased risk overall, but females with family problems (OR = 4.3; 95% CI 1.7-10.7) were at greater risk then males (OR = 3.1; 95% CI 1.2-7.9) with family problems. Alcohol use increased risk of mortality for individuals with verbal instructions (OR = 5.4; 95% CI 1.5-19.5) or without a written action plan (OR = 4.4; 95% CI 1.0-19.4). Individuals with severe asthma and who reported having lung function tests were at increased risk for mortality if family (OR = 8.2; 95% CI 1.6-41.6) or financial problems (OR = 11.5; 95% CI 2.0-65.9) were present. This analysis highlights some important interactions and the magnitude of additional risk for mortality associated with psychosocial or family problems. Psychosocial problems need to be identified and addressed as part of asthma management, because even with best practice, these problems place patients at an increased risk of dying.

Effect of a single dose of the selectin inhibitor TBC1269 on early and late asthmatic responses

BACKGROUND

Selectins participate in the initial phase of leucocyte migration from circulation to inflamed tissues and may play a role in inflammatory cellular influx into airways in asthma. In the sheep asthma model, TBC1269, a pan-selectin antagonist, reduced late allergen response by 74%.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a single dose of TBC1269 inhibits early (EAR) and late (LAR) asthmatic responses, and whether it inhibits sputum leucocyte influx after inhalation allergen challenge in atopic asthmatic subjects treated with bronchodilators only.

METHODS

Twenty-one asthmatic subjects (mean+/-SD, age=32.5+/-6.7 years, 8 males, FEV1 percent predicted=84+/-15%) with known late asthmatic response based on a screening inhalation allergen challenge were randomly assigned to receive intravenous treatment with either placebo (n=11) or TBC1269 (n=10, 30 mg/kg) infused over 15 min immediately prior to a second (post-treatment) allergen challenge at least 4 weeks after the screening challenge. After each challenge, EAR and LAR were monitored for 7 h. In addition, sputum was induced 1 day before and 1 day after each allergen challenge.

RESULTS

TBC1269 did not attenuate the EAR compared with placebo (largest fall in FEV1 within 1 h of 34.1+/-13.9% vs. 31.8+/-12.2% for TBC1269 and placebo groups respectively, P=0.61) or the LAR (largest fall in FEV1 between 3 and 7 h of 39.3+/-15.3% vs. 32.6+/-13.8%, P=0.24). TBC1269 had only minor effects on allergen-induced sputum eosinophilia.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that TBC1269 administered before allergen challenge as a single intravenous dose does not attenuate early or late asthmatic responses to allergen in asthmatic subjects.

The trials and tribulations of IL-5, eosinophils, and allergic asthma

Eosinophils have been suggested to be part of the pathologic process that characterizes asthma, and their recruitment into the upper or lower airways appears to be essential for the clinical manifestations of allergen inhalation. IL-5 is a cytokine necessary for the development, differentiation, recruitment, activation, and survival of eosinophils. Allergen inhalation increases the production of IL-5 in the airways as measured in bronchoalveolar lavage cells and induced sputum. The relationship between IL-5 and the development of airway eosinophilia has been firmly established in IL-5 transgenic mice, with allergen challenge models in IL-5-deficient mice, and in mice treated with blocking anti-IL-5 antibodies. In addition, an accumulation of evidence suggests that treating mice with anti-IL-5 blocking antibodies prevents allergen-induced airway hyperresponsiveness. A recently reported study examined the effects of treatment with a humanized anti-IL-5 mAb (SB-240563) on allergen-induced airway responses and inflammation in atopic subjects. The authors of the study concluded that their results call into question the role of eosinophils in mediating the allergen-induced late asthmatic response and airway hyperresponsiveness; however, because of methodologic limitations, the study cannot be used either to support or to refute the concept of an important role for eosinophils in causing allergen-induced changes in airway function.