Using Genetics to Increase Specificity of Outcome Prediction in Psychiatric Disorders: Prospects for Progression

Relationship of Family Genetic Risk Score With Diagnostic Trajectory in a Swedish National Sample of Incident Cases of Major Depression, Bipolar Disorder, Other Nonaffective Psychosis, and Schizophrenia

Importance

Since its inception under Kraepelin in the modern era, diagnostic stability and familial/genetic risk have been among the most important psychiatric nosologic validators.

Objective

To assess the interrelationships of family genetic risk score (FGRS) with diagnostic stability or diagnostic change in major depression (MD), bipolar disorder (BD), other nonaffective psychosis (ONAP), and schizophrenia.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This longitudinal population-based cohort (N = 4 171 120) included individuals with incident cases of MD (n = 235 095), BD (n = 11 681), ONAP (n = 16 009), and schizophrenia (n = 6312) who had at least 1 further diagnosis of the 4 disorders during follow-up, as assessed from Swedish national medical registries, observed over a mean (SD) of 13.1 (5.9) years until a mean (SD) age of 48.4 (12.3) years. Data were collected from January 1973 to December 2018, and data were analyzed from August to September 2022.

Exposures

FGRS for MD, BD, ONAP, and schizophrenia, calculated from morbidity risks for disorders in first-degree through fifth-degree relatives, controlling for cohabitation effects.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Final diagnostic outcome of MD, BD, ONAP, or schizophrenia.

Results

Of 269 097 included individuals, 173 061 (64.3%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at first registration was 35.1 (11.9) years. Diagnostic stability was highest for MD (214 794 [91.4%]), followed by schizophrenia (4621 [73.2%]), BD (7428 [63.6%]), and ONAP (6738 [42.1%]). The second most common final diagnosis for each of these MD, schizophrenia, BD, and ONAP were BD (15 506 [6.6%]), ONAP (1110 [17.6%]), MD (2681 [23.0%]), and schizophrenia (4401 [27.5%]), respectively. A high FGRS for the incident diagnosis was consistently associated with diagnostic stability, while a high FGRS for the final diagnosis and a low FGRS for the incident diagnosis was associated with diagnostic change. In multivariate models, those in the upper 5% of genetic risk had an odds ratio (OR) of 1.75 or greater for the following diagnostic transition: for MD FGRS, ONAP to MD (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.59-2.29) and schizophrenia to MD (OR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.64-3.68); for BD FGRS, MD to BD (OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 2.47-2.73), ONAP to BD (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.85-2.52), and schizophrenia to BD (OR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.39-3.49); for ONAP FGRS, MD to ONAP (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.62-2.02), MD to schizophrenia (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.58-2.41), and BD to schizophrenia (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.39-2.56); and for schizophrenia FGRS, MD to schizophrenia (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.46-2.23), and BD to schizophrenia (OR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.25-2.45). FGRS profiles for incident cases confirmed at final diagnosis were more homogenous than genetic profiles for those who changed diagnoses.

Conclusions and Relevance

In a large population-based longitudinal cohort, the genetic risk factors for MD, BD, ONAP, and schizophrenia were meaningfully and systematically associated with the diagnostic trajectories of these 4 disorders. Over time, clinical diagnosis and genetic risk profiles became increasingly consilient, thereby providing genetic validation of these diagnostic constructs. Diagnostically unstable incident cases were more genetically heterogeneous than those who were diagnostically stable over time.

Associations between Adolescents' Social Leisure Activities and the Onset of Mental Disorders in Young Adulthood

The association of leisure time activities with specific mental disorders has mainly remained unclear because of lack of such research. This study analyzed the association of different levels of social leisure time activity during adolescence (ages 15–16 years) with the incidence of mental disorders during adolescence and young adulthood between the ages of 16–33 years. The study population consisted of 6838 (females 51.5%) participants from the longitudinal follow-up study, the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986, covering 72% of the total 1986 birth cohort. Psychiatric morbidity of the participants was followed through nationwide health registers until the end of the year 2018 when the participants were 33 years old. High social leisure time activity in adolescence associated with lower incidence of psychiatric disorders in general, and specifically, with affective, anxiety, and substance use disorders. Low social leisure time activity was related to increased incidence of any psychiatric disorder in general, and particularly to anxiety and behavioral disorders. In terms of prevention of mental disorders, these study findings encourage families, schools and other communities to continue to enhance and develop community-based social leisure time activities for children and adolescents.