A high prevalence of carotid artery stenosis in male patients older than 65 years, irrespective of presenting clinical manifestation of atherosclerotic diseases

Validation of Risk Prediction Models to Detect Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis

Background Significant asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) is associated with higher risk of strokes. While the prevalence of moderate and severe ACS is low in the general population, prediction models may allow identification of individuals at increased risk, thereby enabling targeted screening. We identified established prediction models for ACS and externally validated them in a large screening population. Methods and Results Prediction models for prevalent cases with ≥50% ACS were identified in a systematic review (975 studies reviewed and 6 prediction models identified [3 for moderate and 3 for severe ACS]) and then validated using data from 596 469 individuals who attended commercial vascular screening clinics in the United States and United Kingdom. We assessed discrimination and calibration. In the validation cohort, 11 178 (1.87%) participants had ≥50% ACS and 2033 (0.34%) had ≥70% ACS. The best model included age, sex, smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, vascular and cerebrovascular disease, measured blood pressure, and blood lipids. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this model was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.75) for ≥50% ACS and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.79) for ≥70% ACS. The prevalence of ≥50% ACS in the highest decile of risk was 6.51%, and 1.42% for ≥70% ACS. Targeted screening of the 10% highest risk identified 35% of cases with ≥50% ACS and 42% of cases with ≥70% ACS. Conclusions Individuals at high risk of significant ACS can be selected reliably using a prediction model. The best-performing prediction models identified over one third of all cases by targeted screening of individuals in the highest decile of risk only.

The SYNTAX score does not predict presence of carotid disease in a multivessel coronary disease population

BACKGROUND

Numerous reports have shown the relationship between carotid artery atherosclerosis and coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the association between complex CAD evaluated by SYNTAX score (SxScore) and prevalence of carotid lesion (CL) has not been fully investigated. We sought to assess the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis in patients with multivessel CAD assessed by SxScore and the relationship between SxScore severity and features of carotid atherosclerosis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Subjects were 204 consecutive patients with multivessel CAD assessed by coronary angiography and no previous history of carotid atherosclerosis that underwent carotid ultrasound scan from June 2012 to 2013. Presence of CL, significant carotid disease (SCD) and carotid plaque morphology was evaluated. At least one CL was found in 159 patients (77.9%) with no significant difference among SxScore groups (P = 0.20 and P = 0.54, respectively). High prevalence of complex carotid plaque (CCP) was found without significant different distribution in SxScore groups (P = 0.69). Age was independently associated with the presence of CL [odds ratio (OR) 1.055; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.015-1.097; P = 0.007] and SCD (OR 1.057; 95% CI: 1.008-1.097; P = 0.019). Age and diabetes were independently associated with CCP (OR 1.58; 95% CI: 1.023-1.095; P = 0.001; OR 1.848; 95% CI: 1.026-3.327; P = 0.041). SxScore was not independently associated with CL, SCD and CCP (all P > 0.2).

CONCLUSIONS

We found high prevalence of CL in patients with multivessel complex CAD. However, SxScore does not seem to correlate with carotid atherosclerosis.