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Chandna A, Tan R, Carter M, Van Den Bruel A, Verbakel J, Koshiaris C, Salim N, Lubell Y, Turner P, Keitel K. Predictors of disease severity in children presenting from the community with febrile illnesses: a systematic review of prognostic studies. BMJ Glob Health 2021; 6:e003451. [PMID: 33472837 PMCID: PMC7818824 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003451] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2020] [Revised: 11/26/2020] [Accepted: 12/19/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Early identification of children at risk of severe febrile illness can optimise referral, admission and treatment decisions, particularly in resource-limited settings. We aimed to identify prognostic clinical and laboratory factors that predict progression to severe disease in febrile children presenting from the community. METHODS We systematically reviewed publications retrieved from MEDLINE, Web of Science and Embase between 31 May 1999 and 30 April 2020, supplemented by hand search of reference lists and consultation with an expert Technical Advisory Panel. Studies evaluating prognostic factors or clinical prediction models in children presenting from the community with febrile illnesses were eligible. The primary outcome was any objective measure of disease severity ascertained within 30 days of enrolment. We calculated unadjusted likelihood ratios (LRs) for comparison of prognostic factors, and compared clinical prediction models using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). Risk of bias and applicability of studies were assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool and the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool. RESULTS Of 5949 articles identified, 18 studies evaluating 200 prognostic factors and 25 clinical prediction models in 24 530 children were included. Heterogeneity between studies precluded formal meta-analysis. Malnutrition (positive LR range 1.56-11.13), hypoxia (2.10-8.11), altered consciousness (1.24-14.02), and markers of acidosis (1.36-7.71) and poor peripheral perfusion (1.78-17.38) were the most common predictors of severe disease. Clinical prediction model performance varied widely (AUROC range 0.49-0.97). Concerns regarding applicability were identified and most studies were at high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS Few studies address this important public health question. We identified prognostic factors from a wide range of geographic contexts that can help clinicians assess febrile children at risk of progressing to severe disease. Multicentre studies that include outpatients are required to explore generalisability and develop data-driven tools to support patient prioritisation and triage at the community level. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42019140542.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arjun Chandna
- Cambodia-Oxford Medical Research Unit, Angkor Hospital for Children, Siem Reap, Cambodia
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rainer Tan
- Unisanté Centre for Primary Care and Public Health, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Basel-Stadt, Switzerland
| | - Michael Carter
- Department of Women and Children's Health, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Ann Van Den Bruel
- Academic Centre of General Practice, University of Leuven, Leuven, Flanders, Belgium
| | - Jan Verbakel
- Academic Centre of General Practice, University of Leuven, Leuven, Flanders, Belgium
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Nahya Salim
- Ifakara Health Institute, Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University Health and Allied Sciences, Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Yoel Lubell
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Paul Turner
- Cambodia-Oxford Medical Research Unit, Angkor Hospital for Children, Siem Reap, Cambodia
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Kristina Keitel
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Basel-Stadt, Switzerland
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University Children's Hospital, Inselpital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Trippella G, Galli L, De Martino M, Lisi C, Chiappini E. Procalcitonin performance in detecting serious and invasive bacterial infections in children with fever without apparent source: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Expert Rev Anti Infect Ther 2017; 15:1041-1057. [DOI: 10.1080/14787210.2017.1400907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Giulia Trippella
- Post-graduate School of Pediatrics, Anna Meyer Children’s University Hospital, Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Luisa Galli
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Disease, Anna Meyer Children’s University Hospital, Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Catiuscia Lisi
- Department of Statistics, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Elena Chiappini
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Disease, Anna Meyer Children’s University Hospital, Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
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