Long-term Health Consequences of Adverse Labor Market Conditions at Time of Leaving Education: Evidence from West German Panel Data

The Roles of Adolescent Occupational Expectations and Preparation in Adult Suicide and Drug Poisoning Deaths within a Shifting Labor Market

Research suggests that economic declines contribute to mortality risks from suicide and drug poisoning, but how the economy impacts individuals' risks of these deaths has been challenging to specify. Building on recent theoretical advances, we investigate how adolescent occupational expectations and preparation contribute to suicide and drug poisoning deaths in a shifting economy. We use High School and Beyond data linked to adult mortality records for men that were exposed to a decline in labor market share and wages in predominantly blue-collar occupations during early adulthood. We find that adolescent men who expected these occupations had increased risks of suicide and drug poisoning death as adults net of educational and occupational attainment in early adulthood. Family background and occupational preparation are risk factors for death by drug poisoning but not suicide. Our findings improve our understanding of how labor market uncertainty shapes individuals' vulnerability to suicide and drug poisoning death.

Trajectories of Subjective Health: Testing Longitudinal Models for Self-rated Health From Adolescence to Midlife

Self-rated health (SRH) is ubiquitous in population health research. It is one of the few consistent health measures in longitudinal studies. Yet, extant research offers little guidance on its longitudinal trajectory. The literature on SRH suggests several possibilities, including SRH as (1) a more fixed, longer-term view of past, present, and anticipated health; (2) a spontaneous assessment at the time of the survey; (3) a result of lagged effects from prior responses; (4) a function of life course processes; and (5) a combination of the preceding. Different perspectives suggest different longitudinal models, but evidence is lacking about which model best captures SRH trajectory. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we employ structural equation modeling to correct for measurement error and identify the best-fitting, theoretically guided models describing SRH trajectories. Results support a hybrid model that combines the lagged effect of SRH with the enduring perspectives, fitted with a type of autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model. This model structure consistently outperforms other commonly used models and underscores the importance of accounting for lagged effects combined with time-invariant effects in longitudinal studies of SRH. Interestingly, comparisons of this latent, time-invariant autoregressive model across gender and racial/ethnic groups suggest that there are differences in starting points but less variability in SRH trajectories from early life into adulthood.