Persistence and Pervasiveness : Early Wave Opioid Overdose Death Rates Associated With Subsequent Overdose Death Rates

Opioid-stimulant trends in overdose toxicology by race, ethnicity, & gender: An analysis in Delaware, 2013-2019

Recent upticks of stimulant presence in overdose deaths suggest the opioid epidemic is morphing, which raises questions about what drugs are involved and who is impacted. We investigate annual and growth rate trends in combined opioid-stimulant overdose toxicology between 2013 and 2019 for White, Black, and Hispanic male and female decedents in Delaware. During these years, toxicology shifted to illegal drugs for all with fentanyl leading the increase and opioid-cocaine combinations rising substantially. While combined opioid-cocaine toxicology grew among Black and Hispanic Delawareans, White males continue to report the highest rates overall. These findings depart from historical patterns and may challenge existing opioid epidemic policies.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Heroin, Methamphetamine, and Cocaine Use, Treatment, and Mortality Trends in 3 National Data Sources-United States, 2010-2019

BACKGROUND

As overdose deaths continue to rise, public health officials need comprehensive surveillance data to design effective prevention, harm reduction, and treatment strategies. Disparities across race and ethnicity groups, as well as trends in substance use, treatment, or overdose deaths, have been examined individually, but reports rarely compare findings across multiple substances or data sources.

OBJECTIVE

To provide a broad assessment of the overdose crisis, we describe trends in substance use, treatment, and overdose mortality across racial and ethnic groups for multiple substances.

RESEARCH DESIGN

We conducted a longitudinal, cross-sectional analysis comparing trends.

SUBJECTS

We identified self-reported use from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, substance use treatment admissions from the Treatment Episode Data Set-Admissions, and overdose deaths from the CDC's Multiple Cause of Death files.

MEASURES

We measured rates of substance use, treatment, and deaths involving heroin, methamphetamine, and cocaine among United States adults from 2010 to 2019.

RESULTS

Heroin, methamphetamine, and cocaine use increased, though not all changes were statistically significant. Treatment admissions indicating heroin and methamphetamine increased while admissions indicating cocaine decreased. Overdose deaths increased among all groups: methamphetamine (257%-1,115%), heroin (211%-577%), and cocaine (88%-259%). Changes in rates of use, treatment, and death for specific substances varied by racial and ethnic group.

CONCLUSIONS

Substance use, treatment, and overdose mortality changed considerably, though not always equivalently. Identifying diverging trends in substance-related measures for specific substances and racial and ethnic groups can inform targeted investment in treatment to reduce disparities and respond to emerging changes in the overdose crisis.

Understanding Regional Patterns of Overdose Deaths Related to Opioids and Psychostimulants

BACKGROUND

As overdose rates increase for multiple substances, policymakers need to identify geographic patterns of substance-specific deaths. In this study, we describe county-level opioid and psychostimulant overdose patterns and how they correlate with county-level social vulnerability measures.

METHODS

A cross-sectional observational study, we used nationwide 2016-2018 restricted access Centers for Disease Prevention and Control county-level mortality files for 1,024 counties. We estimated quartiles of opioid and psychostimulant overdose mortality and provided estimates of their association with county-level Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) percentile.

RESULTS

There was high opioid and psychostimulant overdose mortality in the Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic, East North Central, and Mountain regions. The Central US had the lowest opioid and psychostimulant overdose mortality rates. Counties with higher SVI scores (i.e. higher social vulnerability) were significantly more likely to experience high opioid and high psychostimulant overdose (high-high) mortality. A 10-percentile increase in SVI score was associated with a 3.1 percentage point increase in the likelihood of being a high-high county (p < 0.001) in unadjusted models and a 1.5 percentage point increase (p < 0.05) in models adjusting for region.

CONCLUSION

Our results illustrated the heterogenous geographic distribution of the growing concurrent opioid and psychostimulant overdose crisis. The substantial regional variation we identified highlights the need for local data to guide policymaking and treatment planning. The association of opioid-psychostimulant overdose mortality with social vulnerability demonstrates the critical need in impacted counties for tailored treatment that addresses the complex medical and social needs of people who use both opioids and psychostimulants.

Forecasting drug-overdose mortality by age in the United States at the national and county levels

The drug-overdose crisis in the United States continues to intensify. Fatalities have increased 5-fold since 1999 reaching a record high of 108,000 deaths in 2021. The epidemic has unfolded through distinct waves of different drug types, uniquely impacting various age, gender, race, and ethnic groups in specific geographical areas. One major challenge in designing interventions and efficiently delivering treatment is forecasting age-specific overdose patterns at the local level. To address this need, we develop a forecasting method that assimilates observational data obtained from the CDC WONDER database with an age-structured model of addiction and overdose mortality. We apply our method nationwide and to three select areas: Los Angeles County, Cook County, and the five boroughs of New York City, providing forecasts of drug-overdose mortality and estimates of relevant epidemiological quantities, such as mortality and age-specific addiction rates.

Trends in opioid-related crime incidents and comparison with opioid overdose outcomes in the United States

BACKGROUND

The opioid epidemic in the United States remains a critically important public health issue and continues to worsen. While healthcare data and outcomes are commonly used to characterize the state of the epidemic and evaluate the impact of policy changes, criminal justice data is under-utilized in research despite its high relevance and unique role in the opioid crisis. Our objective is to understand temporal trends in opioid-related crime incidents and the comparability with the dynamic patterns in health-related outcomes.

METHODS

We used incident-level crime data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) during 2005-2018. We identified all incidents involving opioids, which were grouped by opioid type (illicit and prescription opioids), and by drug-related criminal activity (possession and distribution). We estimated annual opioid-related crime incident rates per 100,000 residents. Joinpoint analysis was performed to examine the significant changes in the temporal trends of crime incident rates. We examined the association between opioid-related crime incidents and health outcomes using state fixed effects regression models.

RESULTS

Among the NIBRS covered population, incident rates of all opioid-related crimes increased significantly from 32.0 to 91.4 per 100,000 between 2005 and 2016, followed by a moderate decrease to 78.3 per 100,000 by 2018. The initial increase in incident rates was predominantly driven by prescription opioid-related incidents which increased by 19.6% per year from 2005 to 2010. Between 2010 and 2015, most of the increase came from illicit opioid-related incidents which accelerated to an increase of 21.6% per year. Opioid-related crime incident rates were found to be significantly and positively associated with rates of opioid-related emergency department visits, inpatient hospitalization, and overdose mortality.

CONCLUSION

Crime data describe temporal trends and shifting patterns in the opioid epidemic that are highly consistent with health-related data. Criminal justice data could be a potentially powerful tool to understand the changing landscape of opioid and substance use.