Clear criteria based on absolute risk: reforming the basis of guidelines on low-risk drinking

ISSUES

The paper discusses the approach behind the Australian Guidelines to Reduce Health Risks from Drinking of 2009. The Guidelines involved a new approach to the central conundrum of low-risk drinking guidelines: how to set a guideline threshold on smooth risk curves.

APPROACH

The context of the 2009 Guidelines is discussed in terms of previous Australian guidelines and of risk analyses and threshold setting for other risks to health and well-being, such as environmental and food toxins. The Guidelines were accordingly based on new lifetime risk modelling of absolute risk, with specification of the risk attached to the guideline thresholds of 1 in 100 lifetime mortality risk. The Guidelines thus specify no more than two Australian standard drinks a day, and no more than four drinks on any occasion.

IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

The approach described brings alcohol guidelines within a general analytical frame of guidelines and standards for hazards to health. At the level of 1 in 100 lifetime risk, there is little justification for different guidelines for men and women. On grounds of differential risk, separate guidelines for young adults might be considered, but could not be based on lifetime risk.

Method for moderation: measuring lifetime risk of alcohol-attributable mortality as a basis for drinking guidelines

The objective of this paper was to determine separately the lifetime risk of drinking alcohol for chronic disease and acute injury outcomes as a basis for setting general population drinking guidelines for Australia. Relative risk data for different levels of average consumption of alcohol were combined with age, sex, and disease-specific risks of dying from an alcohol-attributable chronic disease. For injury, combinations of the number of drinks per occasion and frequency of drinking occasions were combined to model lifetime risk of death for different drinking pattern scenarios. A lifetime risk of injury death of 1 in 100 is reached for consumption levels of about three drinks daily per week for women, and three drinks five times a week for men. For chronic disease death, lifetime risk increases by about 10% with each 10-gram (one drink) increase in daily average alcohol consumption, although risks are higher for women than men, particularly at higher average consumption levels. Lifetime risks for injury and chronic disease combine to overall risk of alcohol-attributable mortality. In terms of guidelines, if a lifetime risk standard of 1 in 100 is set, then the implications of the analysis presented here are that both men and women should not exceed a volume of two drinks a day for chronic disease mortality, and for occasional drinking three or four drinks seem tolerable.