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Burke H, Freeman A, O'Regan P, Wysocki O, Freitas A, Dushianthan A, Celinski M, Batchelor J, Phan H, Borca F, Sheard N, Williams S, Watson A, Fitzpatrick P, Landers D, Wilkinson T. Biomarker identification using dynamic time warping analysis: a longitudinal cohort study of patients with COVID-19 in a UK tertiary hospital. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e050331. [PMID: 35168965 PMCID: PMC8852240 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 01/27/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES COVID-19 is a heterogeneous disease, and many reports have described variations in demographic, biochemical and clinical features at presentation influencing overall hospital mortality. However, there is little information regarding longitudinal changes in laboratory prognostic variables in relation to disease progression in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. DESIGN AND SETTING This retrospective observational report describes disease progression from symptom onset, to admission to hospital, clinical response and discharge/death among patients with COVID-19 at a tertiary centre in South East England. PARTICIPANTS Six hundred and fifty-one patients treated for SARS-CoV-2 between March and September 2020 were included in this analysis. Ethical approval was obtained from the HRA Specific Review Board (REC 20/HRA/2986) for waiver of informed consent. RESULTS The majority of patients presented within 1 week of symptom onset. The lowest risk patients had low mortality (1/45, 2%), and most were discharged within 1 week after admission (30/45, 67%). The highest risk patients, as determined by the 4C mortality score predictor, had high mortality (27/29, 93%), with most dying within 1 week after admission (22/29, 76%). Consistent with previous reports, most patients presented with high levels of C reactive protein (CRP) (67% of patients >50 mg/L), D-dimer (98%>upper limit of normal (ULN)), ferritin (65%>ULN), lactate dehydrogenase (90%>ULN) and low lymphocyte counts (81% CONCLUSIONS Serial measurement of routine blood tests may be a useful prognostic tool for monitoring treatment response in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Changes in other biochemical parameters often included in a 'COVID-19 bundle' did not show significant association with outcome, suggesting there may be limited clinical benefit of serial sampling. This may have direct clinical utility in the context of escalating healthcare costs of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Burke
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Anna Freeman
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Paul O'Regan
- Digital Experimental Cancer Medicine Team, Cancer Biomarker Centre, Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Oskar Wysocki
- Digital Experimental Cancer Medicine Team, Cancer Biomarker Centre, Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Andre Freitas
- Digital Experimental Cancer Medicine Team, Cancer Biomarker Centre, Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | | | | | - James Batchelor
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Hang Phan
- Clinical Informatics Research Unit, University of Southampton Faculty of Medicine, Southampton, UK
- University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Florina Borca
- Institute for Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Natasha Sheard
- University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
| | - Sarah Williams
- University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
| | - Alastair Watson
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Paul Fitzpatrick
- University of Manchester, Cancer Biomarker Centre, Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute, Manchester, UK
| | - Dónal Landers
- Digital Experimental Cancer Medicine Team, University of Manchester, Cancer Biomarker Centre, Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute, Alderley Edge, Cheshire, UK
| | - Tom Wilkinson
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
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