Recent trends in migration between core and peripheral regions in developed and advanced developing countries

Recent Developments in the Greek System of Urban Centres

In this paper we examine the recent developments in the Greek system of urban centres, in order to assess the validity of the view that trends of deconcentration have been in operation during the last decade. Estimation of the rank — size distribution functions for all the postwar census years shows that concentration trends were prevalent until the early 1980s. During the last decade, however, stabilisation or even deconcentration trends have appeared with the faster development of smaller cities. This finding should not be taken as an indication of a trend reversal towards more balanced spatial development, as further analysis shows that the faster growing smaller cities are largely satellite cities of the metropolitan centres of Athens and Thessaloniki. Based on the results of regression analysis, we conclude with a discussion on the factors contributing to differential urban growth performance and the policy implications of these findings for metropolitan regions and balanced growth in Greece.

Contribution of the demographic factor to the migration turnarounds in Japan, Sweden and Canada

"It is well known that similar changes of migration pattern occurred during recent decades in most developed countries; core regions recorded a greatly decreased net in-migration in the 1970s, but increased net in-migration in the 1980s. Based on shift-share analysis of the migration data of Japan, Sweden and Canada, this paper reveals that changing cohort size, especially related to the fertility fluctuation of baby boom and bust, has played an important role in the turnarounds. Furthermore, it is elucidated from a series of correlation analyses that this demographic factor was closely linked with labour-market restructuring in terms of industrial/occupational employment changes."

Expanding the theoretical foundation of differential urbanization

"Recently, the concept of differential urbanization was introduced. It conceptually links the processes of urbanization, polarization reversal, and counterurbanization across the development spectrum in the First and Third Worlds. Based on supporting evidence in developed and less developed countries, this study expands the theoretical foundation of the concept by first focusing on a graphical analysis of the processes of urbanization, polarization reversal, and counterurbanization. Secondly, it looks into the explanations given for counterurbanization. Thirdly, factors likely to influence post-counterurban migration trends are discussed, and finally, the relevance of certain causes of differential urbanization given in the literature are explored."

The importance of "the rural" in the constitution of counterurbanization: evidence from England in the 1980s

"This paper...argues that a reconciliation between...different explanations of counterurbanization can possibly be achieved, but will require the pursuit of a more nuanced analysis of the detailed unfolding of the migration process. Such an analysis involves examining the migration from the migrant's perspective. In particular, we need to recognize the variety of both spatial scales and experiential environments that may be involved in any one act of migration." The geographic focus is on England.

African urbanization in metropolitan South Africa--differential urbanization perspectives

"As a potentially important urban development policy consideration, attention is focused in this paper on differential urbanization trends in South Africa at the metropolitan level. Recent informal urban settlement patterns of the African population within the major metropolitan areas are contrasted against these differential urbanization trends to determine the implications of both for residential development in the metropolitan areas during the post-apartheid era."

When deaths exceed births: natural decrease in the United States

"This article delineates the incidence and regional variation [in the United States] of natural decrease since 1950, considers the demographic factors that caused natural decrease, assesses each factor's relative impact, identifies shared characteristics of areas experiencing natural decrease, and considers the implications of natural decrease." Factors considered include shifts in the age structure, fertility declines, increases in mortality, and migration.

Black-white regional migration and the impact of education: a multinomial logit analysis

"This study investigates the demographic determinants of regional migration within the United States for the periods 1965-70 and 1975-80.... Data used in the analysis are drawn from the United States census public-use microdata samples. Strong evidence is provided demonstrating that an individual's choice of destination region differs by race and that educational attainment has a significant impact on racial differences in the direction of regional migration. Moreover, racial selectivity and the influence of education is shown to be significantly different between time periods."

Metropolitan and nonmetropolitan population trends in Canada, 1966-1982

"The purpose of this paper is to discuss the recent dynamics of spatial population distribution in Canada. More specifically, we examine the effect of interregional migration flows on growth and decline in Canadian regions. Our analysis is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level, which supplements the information available in existing census-year studies and further clarifies the impact of international migrants on recent spatial population trends in Canada." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

National-, regional- and urban-scale population deconcentration in West Germany

"Internal migration patterns during the second half of the 1970s and the first half of the 1980s are evaluated at a regional scale intermediate to those utilized in previous core-to-periphery and urbanization-to-counterurbanization studies of West Germany. A spatial deconcentration of the West German population is evident in the form of redistribution down the metropolitan size hierarchy....A spatial deconcentration of manufacturing and service employment partially explains the net migration losses experienced by the Rhine-Ruhr and the Rhine-Main-Neckar [regions].... This study provides an alternative core-periphery delimitation scheme which can be applied to the metropolitan system in the western part of newly unified Germany."

Urbanization issues in the Asian-Pacific region

"The paper reviews urbanization trends in the Asian-Pacific region, and discusses the causes of urbanization. It then briefly reviews the public policy responses recommended in the literature or actually practised in the region. A series of issues in urban policy and planning are then discussed." The study is based on a review of the published literature.

The counter-urbanization process: demographic restructuring and policy response in rural England

The authors examine the impact of counterurbanization in England. They "try and unravel how household turnover and in-migration selectivity are effecting rural change, and how local communities and policy-makers are responding to that change, in a number of villages in East Northamptonshire, a rural district in the heart of 'shire' England." The focus is on the extent to which the incoming households differ from those they replace, thus changing the socioeconomic characteristics of the rural population. The impact of such migration on the housing market is noted.

The deconcentration theoretical perspective as an explanation for recent changes in the West German migration system

The author uses a deconcentration theory to explain shifts in migration that occurred in the Federal Republic of Germany during the 1980s. He finds that "a general redistribution of the West German population down the metropolitan size hierarchy occurred during the first half of the 1980s, and was not the result of (a net) out-migration from old industrial areas....A spatial deconcentration of manufacturing and service sector employment during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s allowed family-aged migrants to actualize their preferences for living in lower-density and small urban areas, and as a result a regional deconcentration of population became evident in the 1980s."

Implications of differential urbanization on deconcentration in the Pretoria-Witwatersrand-Vaal Triangle metropolitan area, South Africa

Population migration and differences in urbanization patterns in South Africa are examined. "Indications are that the Blacks--a low-income group--are increasing proportionally, while the Whites--the highest-income group--are diminishing proportionally in the inner core zone of the Pretoria-Witwatersrand-Vaal Triangle metropolitan area (PWV), and vice versa in the other zones.... Study results presented in this paper reiterate [inadequacies of government policies] and stress the need for changes in the present official spatial policy for the PWV."

Population migration and economic restructuring in the United States

"This article demonstrates that sectoral employment shifts associated with the migration pattern changes of the 1970s are very different than those for the period 1955-60 to 1965-70. Changing competitiveness for jobs in manufacturing and other traditional basic sectors of the economy cannot account for the greatly accelerated levels of core-periphery net outflow that have been the dominant characteristic of interstate movement during the 1970s and 1980s. Instead, an interconnected set of activities that includes government, services, trade, and construction is associated with the broadscale shifts in the geographic pattern of the United States' population. The causal linkage from migration to employment change assumed heightened importance during the 1970s."

The emergence of migration cycles?

"With a more thorough examination of population changes in the Tokyo region, this article confirms with regard to Japan the reconcentrating trend of urban population observed more clearly elsewhere by Cochrane and Vining (1988). Through an examination of the factors which led to the turnaround in the 1980s in Japan and elsewhere, it is argued that conservative economic policy, as manifested by deregulation and privatization, is the principal cause for reconcentration of urbanization in the 1980s in the economically advanced Western countries."

Migration reversals in perspective: the long-wave evidence

"Although the pattern of polarization reversal reported by Vining and Pallone in the 1970s and the re-emergence of core-ward net migration that they now report for the 1980s are problematic if viewed from the perspective of a short-term time horizon, they are easily understandable in a long-wave context. Evidence is provided for 55-year waves of urbanward migration [in the United States], each of which reached its nadir during the nation's major stagflation crises. The periodic repetitions of the phenomena described by Vining and Pallone suggest the relevance of the interpretations provided by long-wave theory."

The reversal of the migration turnaround: resumption of traditional trends?

"Cochrane and Vining's study of recent trends in core-periphery migration, while suffering from some weaknesses in methodology and interpretation, confirms very clearly that the reversal of the metropolitan migration turnaround is a widespread phenomenon in the developed non-Communist world. Evidence from the United Kingdom also supports this observation. An examination of the possible factors responsible for the rise and fall of counterurbanization over the past two decades suggests that two major forces--population deconcentration and regional restructuring--are operating simultaneously but relatively independently and that they both fluctuate in their nature and strength over time in response to prevailing demographic and economic circumstances."