Is end-of-life care a priority for policymakers? Qualitative documentary analysis of health care strategies

How can health systems approach reducing health inequalities? An in-depth qualitative case study in the UK

BACKGROUND

Addressing socioeconomic inequalities in health and healthcare, and reducing avoidable hospital admissions requires integrated strategy and complex intervention across health systems. However, the understanding of how to create effective systems to reduce socio-economic inequalities in health and healthcare is limited. The aim was to explore and develop a system's level understanding of how local areas address health inequalities with a focus on avoidable emergency admissions.

METHODS

In-depth case study using qualitative investigation (documentary analysis and key informant interviews) in an urban UK local authority. Interviewees were identified using snowball sampling. Documents were retrieved via key informants and web searches of relevant organisations. Interviews and documents were analysed independently based on a thematic analysis approach.

RESULTS

Interviews (n = 14) with wide representation from local authority (n = 8), NHS (n = 5) and voluntary, community and social enterprise (VCSE) sector (n = 1) with 75 documents (including from NHS, local authority, VCSE) were included. Cross-referenced themes were understanding the local context, facilitators of how to tackle health inequalities: the assets, and emerging risks and concerns. Addressing health inequalities in avoidable admissions per se was not often explicitly linked by either the interviews or documents and is not yet embedded into practice. However, a strong coherent strategic integrated population health management plan with a system's approach to reducing health inequalities was evident as was collective action and involving people, with links to a "strong third sector". Challenges reported include structural barriers and threats, the analysis and accessibility of data as well as ongoing pressures on the health and care system.

CONCLUSION

We provide an in-depth exploration of how a local area is working to address health and care inequalities. Key elements of this system's working include fostering strategic coherence, cross-agency working, and community-asset based approaches. Areas requiring action included data sharing challenges across organisations and analytical capacity to assist endeavours to reduce health and care inequalities. Other areas were around the resilience of the system including the recruitment and retention of the workforce. More action is required to embed reducing health inequalities in avoidable admissions explicitly in local areas with inaction risking widening the health gap.

Enhancing Global Development of Palliative Care: Insights from Country Experts on ATLANTES Observatory's Role

Background: Despite a steady increase in palliative care (PC)-oriented research, authentic engagement of stakeholders with findings needs to be more used. Objective: This study aimed to explore how ATLANTES Observatory can effectively promote the global development of PC by engaging with stakeholders and addressing their specific needs and priorities. Design: An international e-survey among Observatory collaborators explored key audiences, best ways to reach them, and priority activities. Answers were evaluated according to respondents' roles (Academics, Policymakers, and clinicians) and toward impact on diverse key stakeholders. Correlation between respondents' roles with select products was studied. Results: One hundred fifty-five collaborators participated. The collaborators suggested addressing ATLANTES Global Observatory's activities to policymakers (5,6/7), professional associations (5,2/7), and health care practitioners (4,4/7). Preferred activity to reach all stakeholders is the use of websites and social networks, while particularly for policymakers, academics, and general practitioners, the conduction of atlases and articles stand out. Conclusions: Our study emphasizes prioritizing policymakers and all health care practitioners as key stakeholders in promoting PC and driving global development and integration into health care systems. By leveraging innovative web tools and social networks for dissemination, our aim is to extend the reach of our efforts beyond the PC community.

Inclusion of palliative and end of life care in health strategies aimed at integrated care: a documentary analysis [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Background

In England, Integrated Care Systems have been established to improve integration of care, as part of the NHS Long Term Plan. For people near the end of life, palliative care can improve integration of care. We aimed to understand whether and how palliative and end of life care was included in Integrated Care System strategies, and to consider priorities for strengthening this.

Methods

Documentary analysis of Integrated Care System (ICS) strategies, using summative content analysis, was performed. Google searches were used to identify NHS Trust, Clinical Commissioning Group or ICS websites. We searched these websites to identify strategies. Key terms were used to identify relevant content. Themes were mapped onto an adapted logic model for integrated care.

Results

23 Integrated Care System strategy documents were identified. Of these, two did not mention any of the key terms, and six highlighted palliative and end of life care as either a priority, area of focus, or an ambition. While most (19/23) strategies included elements that could be mapped onto the adapted logic model for integrated care, the thread from enablers and components, to structures, processes, outcomes, and impact was incomplete.

Conclusions

Greater prioritisation of palliative and end of life care within recently established Integrated Care Systems could improve outcomes for people near the end of life, as well as reduce reliance on acute hospital care. Integrated Care Systems should consider involving patients, the public and palliative care stakeholders in the ongoing development of strategies. For strategies to be effective, our adapted logic model can be used to outline how different components of care fit together to achieve defined outcomes and impact.

Mapping and characterising electronic palliative care coordination systems and their intended impact: A national survey of end-of-life care commissioners

OBJECTIVES

In England, Electronic Palliative Care Coordination Systems (EPaCCS) were introduced in 2008 to support care coordination and delivery in accordance with patient preferences. Despite policy supporting their implementation, there has been a lack of rigorous evaluation of EPaCCS and it is not clear how they have been translated into practice. This study sought to examine the current national implementation of EPaCCS, including their intended impact on patient and service outcomes, and barriers and facilitators for implementation.

METHODS

We conducted a national cross-sectional online survey of end-of-life care commissioning leads for Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in England. We enquired about the current implementation status of EPaCCS, their role in information sharing and intended impact, and requested routine patient-level data relating to EPaCCS.

RESULTS

Out of 135 CCGs, 85 (63.0%) responded, with 57 (67.1%) having operational EPaCCS. Use of EPaCCS were confined to healthcare providers with most systems (67%) not supporting information sharing with care homes and social care providers. Most systems (68%) sought to facilitate goal concordant care, although there was inconsonance between intended impacts and monitoring measures used. Common challenges to implementation included healthcare professionals' limited engagement. Only one-third of patients had an EPaCCS record at death with limited recording of patient preferences.

CONCLUSIONS

Critical gaps exist in engagement with EPaCCS and their ability to facilitate information sharing across care providers. The limited alignment between stated goals of EPaCCS and their monitoring impedes efforts to understand which characteristics of systems can best support care delivery.

End-of-life care quality measures: beyond place of death

BACKGROUND

How quality in healthcare is measured shapes care provision, including how and what care is delivered. In end-of-life care, appropriate measurement can facilitate effective care and research, and when used in policy, highlight deficits and developments in provision and endorse the discipline necessity. The most prevalent end-of-life quality metric, place of death, is not a quality measure: it gives no indication of the quality of care or patient experience in the place of death.

AIM

To evaluate alternative measures to place of death for assessing quality of care in end-of-life provision in all settings.

METHOD

We examine current end-of-life care quality measures for use as metrics for quality in end-of-life care. We categorise approaches to measurement as either: clinical instruments, mortality follow-back surveys or organisational data. We review each category using four criteria: care setting, patient population, measure feasibility, care quality.

RESULTS

While many of the measure types were highly developed for their specific use, each had limitations for measuring quality of care for a population. Measures were deficient because they lacked potential for reporting end-of-life care for patients not in receipt of specialist palliative care, were reliant on patient-proxy accounts, or were not feasible across all care settings.

CONCLUSION

None of the current end-of-life care metric categories can currently be feasibly used to compare the quality of end-of-life care provision for all patients in all care settings. We recommend the development of a bespoke measure or judicious selection and combination of existing measures for reviewing end-of-life care quality.

Identifying Core Domains to Assess the "Quality of Death": A Scoping Review

CONTEXT

There is growing recognition of the value to patients, families, society, and health systems in providing healthcare, including end-of-life care, that is consistent with both patient preferences and clinical guidelines.

OBJECTIVES

Identify the core domains and subdomains that can be used to evaluate the performance of end-of-life care within and across health systems.

METHODS

PubMed/MEDLINE (NCBI), PsycINFO (ProQuest), and CINAHL (EBSCO) databases were searched for peer-reviewed journal articles published prior to February 22, 2020. The SPIDER tool was used to determine search terms. A priori criteria were followed with independent review to identify relevant articles.

RESULTS

A total of 309 eligible articles were identified out of 2728 discrete results. The articles represent perspectives from the broader health system (11), patients (70), family and informal caregivers (65), healthcare professionals (43), multiple viewpoints (110), and others (10). The most common condition of focus was cancer (103) and the majority (245) of the studies concentrated on high-income country contexts. The review identified five domains and 11 subdomains focused on structural factors relevant to end-of-life care at the broader health system level, and two domains and 22 subdomains focused on experiential aspects of end-of-life care from the patient and family perspectives. The structural health system domains were: 1) stewardship and governance, 2) resource generation, 3) financing and financial protection, 4) service provision, and 5) access to care. The experiential domains were: 1) quality of care, and 2) quality of communication.

CONCLUSION

The review affirms the need for a people-centered approach to managing the delicate process and period of accepting and preparing for the end of life. The identified structural and experiential factors pertinent to the "quality of death" will prove invaluable for future efforts aimed to quantify health system performance in the end-of-life period.

Gathering policymakers' perspectives as an essential step in planning and implementing palliative care services at a national level: an example from a resource-limited country

BACKGROUND

Despite increasing recognition of the role played by palliative care (PC) services, the priorities of policymakers in supporting PC remain unclear and have sometimes engendered controversy. There are few studies exploring policymakers' perspectives towards PC services, with most shedding light on obstacles to PC development. Furthermore, no study has explored policymakers' perspectives towards providing PC at the national level in resource-limited countries. This study provides a platform for providing PC as part of the Palestinian healthcare system (HCS) by exploring policymakers' perspectives on PC, an essential step to developing a PC programme.

METHODS

A descriptive qualitative study design was employed using semi-structured interviews. Participants were those identified as responsible for making executive and legislative decisions about health services (including PC) in the HCS. Data were analysed using qualitative content analysis.

RESULTS

Twelve decision and policymakers participated in the study. Four categories were generated from the content analysis: (1) the nature of current PC healthcare services, (2) the potential benefits of PC, (3) challenges to providing PC, and (4) considerations in providing PC. The current PC services provided to Palestinian patients with life-limiting illnesses and their families are not comprehensive, and are limited to symptom management. There is a Palestinian national strategic plan for developing PC; however, the development goals are not clearly defined, and the plan's capabilities are inadequate. Several challenges to the provision of PC were found to relate to issues of education and training, the allocation of funding, and the availability of medications.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrating PC into the Palestinian university curricula as a compulsory course and establishing higher degree programmes in PC to overcome the shortage of PC specialists is required. Developing policies aligned with national laws could help enhance health services to patients and their families and resolve several challenges. Cooperating with national and international institutions in seeking funding could boost PC development and medication availability.

Priorities and opportunities for palliative and end of life care in United Kingdom health policies: a national documentary analysis

Background

Access to high-quality palliative care is inadequate for most people living and dying with serious illness. Policies aimed at optimising delivery of palliative and end of life care are an important mechanism to improve quality of care for the dying. The extent to which palliative care is included in national health policies is unknown. We aimed to identify priorities and opportunities for palliative and end of life care in national health policies in the UK.

Methods

Documentary analysis consisting of 1) summative content analysis to describe the extent to which palliative and end of life care is referred to and/or prioritised in national health and social care policies, and 2) thematic analysis to explore health policy priorities that are opportunities to widen access to palliative and end of life care for people with serious illness. Relevant national policy documents were identified through web searches of key government and other organisations, and through expert consultation. Documents included were UK-wide or devolved (i.e. England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales), health and social care government strategies published from 2010 onwards.

Results

Fifteen policy documents were included in the final analysis. Twelve referred to palliative or end of life care, but details about what should improve, or mechanisms to achieve this, were sparse. Policy priorities that are opportunities to widen palliative and end of life care access comprised three inter-related themes: (1) integrated care – conceptualised as reorganisation of services as a way to enable improvement; (2) personalised care – conceptualised as allowing people to shape and manage their own care; and (3) support for unpaid carers – conceptualised as enabling unpaid carers to live a more independent lifestyle and balance caring with their own needs.

Conclusions

Although information on palliative and end of life care in UK health and social care policies was sparse, improving palliative care may provide an evidence-based approach to achieve the stated policy priorities of integrated care, personalised care, and support for unpaid carers. Aligning existing evidence of the benefits of palliative care with the three priorities identified may be an effective mechanism to both strengthen policy and improve care for people who are dying.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12904-021-00802-6.

Inclusion of palliative care in health care policy for older people: A directed documentary analysis in 13 of the most rapidly ageing countries worldwide

BACKGROUND

Palliative care is insufficiently integrated in the continuum of care for older people. It is unclear to what extent healthcare policy for older people includes elements of palliative care and thus supports its integration.

AIM

(1) To develop a reference framework for identifying palliative care contents in policy documents; (2) to determine inclusion of palliative care in public policy documents on healthcare for older people in 13 rapidly ageing countries.

DESIGN

Directed documentary analysis of public policy documents (legislation, policies/strategies, guidelines, white papers) on healthcare for older people. Using existing literature, we developed a reference framework and data extraction form assessing 10 criteria of palliative care inclusion. Country experts identified documents and extracted data.

SETTING

Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, England, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain.

RESULTS

Of 139 identified documents, 50 met inclusion criteria. The most frequently addressed palliative care elements were coordination and continuity of care (12 countries), communication and care planning, care for family, and ethical and legal aspects (11 countries). Documents in 10 countries explicitly mentioned palliative care, nine addressed symptom management, eight mentioned end-of-life care, and five referred to existing palliative care strategies (out of nine that had them).

CONCLUSIONS

Health care policies for older people need revising to include reference to end-of-life care and dying and ensure linkage to existing national or regional palliative care strategies. The strong policy focus on care coordination and continuity in policies for older people is an opportunity window for palliative care advocacy.

Preparing for a good death? Palliative care representations in the italian public television programming

The difficulty in accepting death is a constant that transcends differences of time and place. The literature shows that the dying is often subjected to invasive procedures with significant consequences on individual wellbeing and public health. If death is hard to accept even for the practitioners, what happens in the broader population? What narratives surround the end of life? The study focuses on the Italian context and its transformations, the public's understanding of palliative care, and the television programs dealing with hospice and palliative care aired by the Italian public broadcasting company from the 1950s to the present day.

Supporting good quality, community-based end-of-life care for people living with dementia: the SEED research programme including feasibility RCT

Background

In the UK, most people with dementia die in the community and they often receive poorer end-of-life care than people with cancer.

Objective

The overall aim of this programme was to support professionals to deliver good-quality, community-based care towards, and at, the end of life for people living with dementia and their families.

Design

The Supporting Excellence in End-of-life care in Dementia (SEED) programme comprised six interlinked workstreams. Workstream 1 examined existing guidance and outcome measures using systematic reviews, identified good practice through a national e-survey and explored outcomes of end-of-life care valued by people with dementia and family carers (n = 57) using a Q-sort study. Workstream 2 explored good-quality end-of-life care in dementia from the perspectives of a range of stakeholders using qualitative methods (119 interviews, 12 focus groups and 256 observation hours). Using data from workstreams 1 and 2, workstream 3 used co-design methods with key stakeholders to develop the SEED intervention. Worksteam 4 was a pilot study of the SEED intervention with an embedded process evaluation. Using a cluster design, we assessed the feasibility and acceptability of recruitment and retention, outcome measures and our intervention. Four general practices were recruited in North East England: two were allocated to the intervention and two provided usual care. Patient recruitment was via general practitioner dementia registers. Outcome data were collected at baseline, 4, 8 and 12 months. Workstream 5 involved economic modelling studies that assessed the potential value of the SEED intervention using a contingent valuation survey of the general public (n = 1002). These data informed an economic decision model to explore how the SEED intervention might influence care. Results of the model were presented in terms of the costs and consequences (e.g. hospitalisations) and, using the contingent valuation data, a cost–benefit analysis. Workstream 6 examined commissioning of end-of-life care in dementia through a narrative review of policy and practice literature, combined with indepth interviews with a national sample of service commissioners (n = 20).

Setting

The workstream 1 survey and workstream 2 included services throughout England. The workstream 1 Q-sort study and workstream 4 pilot trial took place in North East England. For workstream 4, four general practices were recruited; two received the intervention and two provided usual care.

Results

Currently, dementia care and end-of-life care are commissioned separately, with commissioners receiving little formal guidance and training. Examples of good practice rely on non-recurrent funding and leadership from an interested clinician. Seven key components are required for good end-of-life care in dementia: timely planning discussions, recognising end of life and providing supportive care, co-ordinating care, effective working with primary care, managing hospitalisation, continuing care after death, and valuing staff and ongoing learning. Using co-design methods and the theory of change, the seven components were operationalised as a primary care-based, dementia nurse specialist intervention, with a care resource kit to help the dementia nurse specialist improve the knowledge of family and professional carers. The SEED intervention proved feasible and acceptable to all stakeholders, and being located in the general practice was considered beneficial. None of the outcome measures was suitable as the primary outcome for a future trial. The contingent valuation showed that the SEED intervention was valued, with a wider package of care valued more than selected features in isolation. The SEED intervention is unlikely to reduce costs, but this may be offset by the value placed on the SEED intervention by the general public.

Limitations

The biggest challenge to the successful delivery and completion of this research programme was translating the ‘theoretical’ complex intervention into practice in an ever-changing policy and service landscape at national and local levels. A major limitation for a future trial is the lack of a valid and relevant primary outcome measure to evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention that influences outcomes for both individuals and systems.

Conclusions

Although the dementia nurse specialist intervention was acceptable, feasible and integrated well with existing care, it is unlikely to reduce costs of care; however, it was highly valued by all stakeholders (professionals, people with dementia and their families) and has the potential to influence outcomes at both an individual and a systems level.

Future work

There is no plan to progress to a full randomised controlled trial of the SEED intervention in its current form. In view of new National Institute for Health and Care Excellence dementia guidance, which now recommends a care co-ordinator for all people with dementia, the feasibility of providing the SEED intervention throughout the illness trajectory should be explored. Appropriate outcome measures to evaluate the effectiveness of such a complex intervention are needed urgently.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN21390601.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research, Vol. 8, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Empowering Better End-of-Life Dementia Care (EMBED-Care): A mixed methods protocol to achieve integrated person-centred care across settings

OBJECTIVES

Globally, the number of people with dementia who have palliative care needs will increase fourfold over the next 40 years. The Empowering Better End-of-Life Dementia Care (EMBED-Care) Programme aims to deliver a step change in care through a large sequential study, spanning multiple work streams.

METHODS

We will use mixed methods across settings where people with dementia live and die: their own homes, care homes, and hospitals. Beginning with policy syntheses and reviews of interventions, we will develop a conceptual framework and underpinning theory of change. We will use linked data sets to explore current service use, care transitions, and inequalities and predict future need for end-of-life dementia care. Longitudinal cohort studies of people with dementia (including young onset and prion dementias) and their carers will describe care transitions, quality of life, symptoms, formal and informal care provision, and costs. Data will be synthesised, underpinned by the Knowledge-to-Action Implementation Framework, to design a novel complex intervention to support assessment, decision making, and communication between patients, carers, and inter-professional teams. This will be feasibility and pilot tested in UK settings. Patient and public involvement and engagement, innovative work with artists, policymakers, and third sector organisations are embedded to drive impact. We will build research capacity and develop an international network for excellence in dementia palliative care.

CONCLUSIONS

EMBED-Care will help us understand current and future need, develop novel cost-effective care innovations, build research capacity, and promote international collaborations in research and practice to ensure people live and die well with dementia.

Postgraduate palliative care education for all healthcare providers in Europe: Results from an EAPC survey

OBJECTIVE

Palliative care training at basic, intermediate, and specialist levels, recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), is challenging to access in resource-poor countries and regions. Providing support in this regard would seem a moral imperative for all countries with established palliative care education systems and a strong resource base. In collaboration with WHO European Office and European Association for Palliative Care, this paper looks into the educational requirements in palliative care at postgraduate level within Europe.

METHOD

A survey was specifically designed to gather opinions and comments on elements of palliative care education from European experts. Participants were invited to assess the European Association for Palliative Care core competencies on a five-item scale and to define essential learning goals. Survey data were statistically analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics Software. Qualitative data were thematically analyzed.

RESULT

A total of 195 data sets were recorded; 82 were completed fully. The statistical analysis revealed a high agreement regarding the key elements of palliative care education. The thematic analysis indicated that at postgraduate level all healthcare providers need to (1) comprehend the palliative care philosophy, (2) be able to demonstrate the complex symptom assessment and management competencies, (3) be able to design care plans based on patients and families wishes integrating multiprofessional and interdisciplinary approaches, and (4) be able to listen and self-reflect.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS

According to the WHO, inadequate skills and capacities of healthcare workers are one of the four barriers hindering the access to palliative care. This paper contains a new and comprehensive list of learning goals essential for multidisciplinary postgraduate palliative care education. Besides highlighting the relevant competencies, the article provides best-practice toolboxes with teaching and assessment methods. The article comments on the WHO's palliative care definition and underpins the importance of the role of the education in knowledge development and skills acquisition.

Is patient-centred care for women a priority for policy-makers? Content analysis of government policies

BACKGROUND

Considerable research shows that women experience gendered disparities in healthcare access and quality. Patient-centred care (PCC) could reduce inequities by addressing the patient's clinical and personal needs. Healthcare policies can influence service delivery to optimise patient outcomes. This study assessed whether and how government policies recognise and promote PCC for women (PCCW).

METHODS

We analysed the content of English-language policies published in Canada from 2010 to 2018 on depression and cardiac rehabilitation - conditions featuring known gendered inequities - that were identified on government websites. We extracted data and used summary statistics to enumerate mentions of PCC and women's health.

RESULTS

We included 30 policies (20 depression, 10 cardiac rehabilitation). Of those, 20 (66.7%) included any content related to PCC (median 1.0, range 0.0 to 5.0), most often exchanging information (14, 46.7%) and making decisions (13, 43.3%). Less frequent domains were enabling self-management (8, 26.7%), addressing emotions (6, 20.0%) and fostering the relationship (4, 13.3%). No policies included content for the domain of managing uncertainty. A higher proportion of cardiac rehabilitation guidelines included PCC content. Among the 30 policies, 7 (23.3%) included content related to at least one women's health domain (median 0.0, range 0.0 to 3.0). Most frequently included were social determinants of health (4, 13.3%). Fewer policies mentioned any issues to consider for women (2, 28.6%), issues specific to subgroups of women (2, 28.6%) or distinguished care for women from men (2, 28.6%). No policies included mention of abuse or violence, or discrimination or stigma. The policies largely pertained to depression. Despite mention of PCC or women's health, policies offered brief, vague guidance on how to achieve PCCW; for example, "Patients value being involved in decision-making" and "Women want care that is collaborative, woman- and family-centered, and culturally sensitive."

CONCLUSIONS

Despite considerable evidence of need and international recommendations, most policies failed to recognise gendered disparities or promote PCC as a mitigating strategy. These identified gaps represent opportunities by which government policies could be developed or strengthened to support PCCW. Future research should investigate complementary strategies such as equipping policy-makers with the evidence and tools required to develop PCCW-informed policies.

Understanding which people with dementia are at risk of inappropriate care and avoidable transitions to hospital near the end-of-life: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

transitions between care settings near the end-of-life for people with dementia can be distressing, lead to physical and cognitive deterioration, and may be avoidable.

OBJECTIVE

to investigate determinants of end-of-life hospital transitions, and association with healthcare use, among people with dementia.

DESIGN

retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

electronic records from a mental health provider in London, linked to national mortality and hospital data.

SUBJECTS

people with dementia who died in 2007-2016.

METHODS

end-of-life hospital transitions were defined as: multiple admissions in the last 90 days (early), or any admission in the last three days of life (late). Determinants were assessed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

of 8,880 people, 1,421 (16.0%) had at least one end-of-life transition: 505 (5.7%) had early, 788 (8.9%) late, and 128 (1.5%) both types. Early transitions were associated with male gender (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.11-1.59), age (>90 vs <75 years OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.97), physical illness (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.20-1.94), depressed mood (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.17-1.90), and deprivation (most vs least affluent quintile OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.37-0.90). Care home residence was associated with fewer early (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.76) and late (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.97) transitions. Early transitions were associated with more hospital admissions throughout the last year of life compared to those with late and no transitions (mean 4.56, 1.89, 1.60; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

in contrast to late transitions, early transitions are associated with higher healthcare use and characteristics that are predictable, indicating potential for prevention.

The escalating global burden of serious health-related suffering: projections to 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions

Background

Serious life-threatening and life-limiting illnesses place an enormous burden on society and health systems. Understanding how this burden will evolve in the future is essential to inform policies that alleviate suffering and prevent health system weakening. We aimed to project the global burden of serious health-related suffering requiring palliative care until 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.

Methods

We projected the future burden of serious health-related suffering as defined by the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief, by combining WHO mortality projections (2016–60) with estimates of physical and psychological symptom prevalence in 20 conditions most often associated with symptoms requiring palliative care. Projections were described in terms of absolute numbers and proportional change compared with the 2016 baseline data. Results were stratified by World Bank income regions and WHO geographical regions.

Findings

By 2060, an estimated 48 million people (47% of all deaths globally) will die with serious health-related suffering, which represents an 87% increase from 26 million people in 2016. 83% of these deaths will occur in low-income and middle-income countries. Serious health-related suffering will increase in all regions, with the largest proportional rise in low-income countries (155% increase between 2016 and 2060). Globally, serious health-related suffering will increase most rapidly among people aged 70 years or older (183% increase between 2016 and 2060). In absolute terms, it will be driven by rises in cancer deaths (16 million people, 109% increase between 2016 and 2060). The condition with the highest proportional increase in serious-related suffering will be dementia (6 million people, 264% increase between 2016 and 2060).

Interpretation

The burden of serious health-related suffering will almost double by 2060, with the fastest increases occurring in low-income countries, among older people, and people with dementia. Immediate global action to integrate palliative care into health systems is an ethical and economic imperative.

Funding

Research Challenge Fund, Florence Nightingale Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Palliative Care, King's College London.