The utility of the surprise question: A useful tool for identifying patients nearing the last phase of life? A systematic review and meta-analysis

"Doctor, would it surprise you if there were prescribing errors in this patient's medication?" Identifying eligible patients for in-hospital pharmacotherapeutic stewardship: A matched case-control study

BACKGROUND

Evaluating a patient's medication list is critical to reduce prescribing errors (PEs), but is a labour- and time-intensive process. Identification of patients at risk of PEs could improve the allocation of scarce time and resources, but currently available prediction tools are not effective.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether ward doctors can identify patients at risk of PEs.

METHODS

This prospective matched case-control study was conducted on three clinical wards in an academic hospital. Otolaryngology and oncology ward doctors used clinical intuition to select patients requiring a clinical medication review (CMR) (cases). These patients were then matched 1:1 on age (±10 years) and number (±1) of prescriptions with patients not selected for CMRs on the internal medicine and upper gastrointestinal surgery ward (controls). A multidisciplinary in-hospital pharmacotherapeutic stewardship team assessed the prevalence of PEs.

RESULTS

A total of 387 patients with 5191 prescriptions were included. Overall, 799 PEs affecting 279 patients (72.1%) were identified. Most PEs (58.8%) occurred during hospitalization. There were no significant differences in age, number of prescriptions, sex, renal function or documented allergies or intolerances between the cases and controls or between controls and other patients who did not receive a CMR. The incidence of PEs was higher in cases than in controls (97.5% vs 72.5%, odds ratio = 14.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-121.1, P = .002)). The rate of PEs was three times higher in cases than in controls (incidence rate ratio = 3.0, 95% CI 2.3-4.0, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Ward doctors can effectively identify patients with PEs, and thus at risk of medication-related harm, using clinical intuition.

Factors influencing deprescribing in primary care for those towards the end of life: A qualitative interview study with patients and healthcare practitioners

BACKGROUND

For people with limited lifetime expectancy, the benefit of many medications may be outweighed by their potential harms. Despite the relevance of reducing unnecessary medication use, deprescribing is poorly enacted in primary care practice.

AIM

This study aims to describe factors, as identified by primary care professionals and patients, that influence deprescribing in the last phase of life.

DESIGN

Semi-structured interviews were conducted and analysed using a thematic approach.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

This study was performed in primary care settings, including general practices, hospices and community care teams in The Netherlands. Purposefully identified primary care professionals (general practitioners, pharmacists, nurses) and patients with limited lifetime expectancy due to advanced chronic illness or cancer and their caretakers were interviewed.

RESULTS

Three themes emerged detailing factors influencing deprescribing in the last phase of life in primary care: (1) non-maleficence, the wish to avoid additional psychological or physical distress; (2) reactive care, the lack of priority and awareness of eligible patients; and (3) discontinuity of care within primary care and between primary care and specialty care.

CONCLUSIONS

Deprescribing is an incremental process, complicated by the unpredictability of life expectancy and attitudes of patients and health care professionals that associate continued medication use with clinical stability. Opportunities to facilitate the deprescribing process and its acceptance include the routinely systematic identification of patients with limited life expectancy and potentially inappropriate medications, and normalisation of deprescribing as component of regular primary care, occurring for all patients and continuing into end-of-life care.

Appropriate Timing of End-of-Life Care: A Dutch Policy Analysis and Opportunities for Improvement

Background

The Exceptional Medical Expenses Act (EMEA) guaranteed public financing for the costs of end-of-life care in The Netherlands until 2015. A life expectancy shorter than three months was a prerequisite for a patient to qualify.

Objective

To estimate survival and its potential predictors using the start date of EMEA funded end-of-life care as time origin, and to calculate the ensuing costs.

Design

Retrospective observational study using data retrieved from multiple datasets of the national statistical office Statistics Netherlands (https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/).

Setting

Included were all adult patients, who received EMEA funded end-of-life care in hospice units in nursing homes and homes for the elderly in The Netherlands between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2014.

Results

In 40,659 patients (median age 79 years), the distribution of survival was extremely skewed. Median, 95%, and maximum survival times were 15 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15-15), 219 (210-226), and 2,006 days, respectively. The 90-day and 180-day survival rates were 12.4 (12.1-12.7)% and 6.2 (6.0-6.5)%, respectively. Although age, gender, diagnosis, and start year of end-of-life care were statistically significant independent predictors, clinical significance is limited. End-of-life care was delivered for a total of 1,720,002 days, costing almost 440 million Euros. Fifty-nine percent of the costs was for barely 11% of patients, i.e., those who received end-of-life care for more than 90 days.

Conclusion

The use of life expectancy is a weak basis for the appropriate timing of end-of-life care. Further research should evaluate potential tools to improve the timing of end-of-life care, while using available resources efficiently.

Factors Associated With Long Survival in Patients With Cancer Admitted to Palliative Care: An Exploratory Study

Objective: Some patients with cancer admitted to palliative care have relatively long survivals of 1 year or more. The objective of this study was to find out factors associated with prolonged survival. Methods: Retrospective case-control study comparing the available data of patients with cancer who survived more than 1 year after admission in a palliative care service with patients with cancer who survived 6 months or less. The intended proportion was 4 controls for each case. Patients were identified through electronic records from 2012 until 2018. Results: And 1721 patients were identified. Of those patients, 111 (6.4%) survived for at least 1 year, and 363 (21.1%) were included as controls according to the established criteria. The intended proportion could not be reached; the proportion was only 3.3:1. The median survival of cases was 581 days (range: 371-2763), and the median survival of controls was 57 days (range: 1-182). In the multivariable analysis, patients with a hemoglobin ≥ 10.6 g/dL and a creatinine level >95 µmol/L had a higher probability of living more than 1 year. In contrast, patients with abnormal cognition, pain, anorexia, liver metastases, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status >1, and a neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio ≥ 3.43 had a low probability of living more than 1 year. Conclusion: Several factors were statistically associated positively or negatively with prolonged survival. However, the data of this study should be confirmed in other studies.

The Surprise Question and clinician-predicted prognosis: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The Surprise Question, 'Would you be surprised if this person died within the next year?' is a simple tool that can be used by clinicians to identify people within the last year of life. This review aimed to determine the accuracy of this assessment, across different healthcare settings, specialties, follow-up periods and respondents.

METHODS

Searches were conducted of Medline, Embase, AMED, PubMed and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, from inception until 01 January 2024. Studies were included if they reported original data on the ability of the Surprise Question to predict survival. For each study (including subgroups), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy were determined.

RESULTS

Our dataset comprised 56 distinct cohorts, including 68 829 patients. In a pooled analysis, the sensitivity of the Surprise Question was 0.69 ((0.64 to 0.74) I2=97.2%), specificity 0.69 ((0.63 to 0.74) I2=99.7%), positive predictive value 0.40 ((0.35 to 0.45) I2=99.4%), negative predictive value 0.89 ((0.87 to 0.91) I2=99.7%) and accuracy 0.71 ((0.68 to 0.75) I2=99.3%). The prompt performed best in populations with high event rates, shorter timeframes and when posed to more experienced respondents.

CONCLUSIONS

The Surprise Question demonstrated modest accuracy with considerable heterogeneity across the population to which it was applied and to whom it was posed. Prospective studies should test whether the prompt can facilitate timely access to palliative care services, as originally envisioned.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD32022298236.

Are Surprise Questions and Probabilistic Questions by Nurses Useful in Home Palliative Care? A Prospective Study

Background: Surprise questions (SQs) are used as screening tools in palliative care. Probabilistic questions (PQs) are more accurate than temporal predictions. However, no study has examined the usefulness of SQs and PQs assessed by nurses. Objectives: To examine the accuracy of nurses' SQ and PQ assessments in patients with advanced cancer receiving home palliative care. Design: A prospective single-center cohort study. Setting/Subjects: Adult patients with advanced cancer who received palliative care at home in South Korea between 2019 and 2020. Measurements: Palliative care specialized nurses were asked the SQ, "Would you be surprised if the patient died in a specific timeframe?" and PQ, "What is the probability that this patient will be alive (0 to 100%) within a specific timeframe?" at the 1-, 2-, 4-, and 6-week timeframes at enrollment. We calculated the sensitivities and specificities of the SQs and PQs. Results: 81 patients were recruited with 47 days of median survival. The sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy (OA) of the 1-week SQ were 50.0, 93.2, and 88.9%, respectively. The accuracies for the 1-week PQ were 12.5, 100.0, and 91.3%, respectively. The 6-week SQ showed sensitivity, specificity, and OA of 84.6, 42.9, and 62.9%, respectively; the accuracies for the 6-week PQ were 59.0, 66.7, and 63.0%, respectively.Conclusion: The SQ and PQ showed acceptable accuracy in home palliative care patients. Interestingly, PQ showed higher specificity than SQ at all timeframes. The SQ and PQ assessed by nurses may be useful in providing additional prognostic information for home palliative care.

Validated medication deprescribing instruments for patients with palliative care needs: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Patients with life-limiting illnesses are prone to unnecessary polypharmacy. Deprescribing tools may contribute to minimizing negative outcomes. Thus, the aims of the study were to identify validated instruments for deprescribing inappropriate medications for patients with palliative care needs and to assess the impact on clinical, humanistic, and economic outcomes.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in LILACS, PUBMED, EMBASE, COCHRANE, and WEB OF SCIENCE databases (until May 2021). A manual search was performed in the references of enrolled articles. The screening, eligibility, extraction, and bias risk assessment were carried out by 2 independent researchers. Experimental and observational studies were eligible for inclusion.

RESULTS

Out of the 5791 studies retrieved, after excluding duplicates (n = 1050), conducting title/abstract screening (n = 4741), and full reading (n = 41), only 1 study met the inclusion criteria. In this included study, a randomized controlled trial was conducted, which showed a high level of bias risk overall. Adults 75 years or older (n = 130) with limited life expectancy and polypharmacy were allocated to 2 groups [intervention arm (deprescribing); and control arm (usual care)]. Deprescribing was performed with the aid of the STOPPFrail tool. The mean number of inappropriate medications and monthly medication costs were significantly lower in the intervention arm. No statistically significant differences were found in terms of unscheduled hospital presentations, falls, fractures, mortality, and quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the availability of several instruments to support deprescribing in patients with palliative care needs, only 1 of them has undergone validation and robust assessment for effectiveness in clinical practice. The STOPPFrail tool appears to reduce the number of inappropriate medications for older people with limited life expectancy (and probably palliative care needs) and decrease the monthly costs of pharmacotherapy. Nevertheless, the impact on patient safety and humanistic outcomes remain unclear.

Validated medication deprescribing instruments for patients with palliative care needs palliative care: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Patients with life-limiting illnesses are prone to unnecessary polypharmacy. Deprescribing tools may contribute to minimizing negative outcomes. Thus, the aims of the study were to identify validated instruments for deprescribing inappropriate medications for patients with palliative care needs and to assess the impact on clinical, humanistic, and economic outcomes.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in LILACS, PUBMED, EMBASE, COCHRANE, and WEB OF SCIENCE databases (until May 2021). A manual search was performed in the references of enrolled articles. The screening, eligibility, extraction, and bias risk assessment were carried out by two independent researchers. Experimental and observational studies were eligible for inclusion.

RESULTS

Out of the 5,791 studies retrieved, after excluding duplicates (n = 1,050), conducting title/abstract screening (n = 4,741), and full reading (n = 41), only one study met the inclusion criteria. In this included study, a randomized controlled trial was conducted, which showed a high level of bias risk overall. Adults 75 years or older (n = 130) with limited life expectancy and polypharmacy were allocated to two groups [intervention arm (deprescribing); and control arm (usual care)]. Deprescribing was performed with the aid of the STOPPFrail tool. The mean number of inappropriate medications and monthly medication costs were significantly lower in the intervention arm. No statistically significant differences were found in terms of unscheduled hospital presentations, falls, fractures, mortality, and quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the availability of several instruments to support deprescribing in patients with palliative care needs, only one of them has undergone validation and robust assessment for effectiveness in clinical practice. The STOPPFrail tool appears to reduce the number of inappropriate medications for older people with limited life expectancy (and probably palliative care needs) and decrease the monthly costs of pharmacotherapy. Nevertheless, the impact on patient safety and humanistic outcomes remain unclear.

Emergency department hospice care pathway associated with decreased ED and hospital length of stay

INTRODUCTION

While increasing evidence shows that hospice and palliative care interventions in the ED can benefit patients and systems, little exists on the feasibility and effectiveness of identifying patients in the ED who might benefit from hospice care. Our aim was to evaluate the effect of a clinical care pathway on the identification of patients who would benefit from hospice in an academic medical center ED setting.

METHODS

We instituted a clinical pathway for ED patients with potential need for or already enrolled in hospice. This pathway was digitally embedded in the electronic health record and made available to ED physicians, APPs and staff in a non-interruptive fashion. Patient and visit characteristics were evaluated for the six months before (05/04/2021-10/4/2021) and after (10/5/2021-05/04/2022) implementation.

RESULTS

After pathway implementation, more patients were identified as appropriate for hospice and ED length of stay (LOS) for qualifying patients decreased by a median of 2.9 h. Social work consultation for hospice evaluation increased, and more patients were discharged from the ED with hospice. As more patients were identified with end-of-life care needs, the number of patients admitted to the hospital increased. However, more patients were admitted under observation status, and admission LOS decreased by a median of 18.4 h.

CONCLUSION

This non-interruptive, digitally embedded clinical care pathway provided guidance for ED physicians and APPs to initiate hospice referrals. More patients received social work consultation and were identified as hospice eligible. Those patients admitted to the hospital had a decrease in both ED and hospital admission LOS.

End-of-Life Care Preferences of Patients with Advanced Urological Malignancies: An Explorative Survey Study at a Tertiary Referral Center

Background: Many people want to die at home, but it is often not possible because they do not share their wishes with family members. This study was conducted to find out the extent to which patients with advanced urological malignancies had wishes regarding their final stage of life, made arrangements accordingly, and communicated their wishes to relatives and health care professionals. Methods: We conducted a survey among advanced urological tumor patients during their clinic visit at a German university hospital using a 31-item questionnaire. Inclusion criteria were metastatic or irresectable prostate cancer, urothelial carcinoma, or renal cell carcinoma. Results: In total, 88 patients (76 male, 12 female) completed the questionnaire, and 62 of those respondents (70%) had received their tumor diagnosis within the past 5 years. Symptoms were reported by 80%, and 18% described five or more symptoms. The majority (88%) stated that they had thought about their preferred place of death but 58% had not informed anyone about it. The preference for a hospice as the place of death correlated statistically significantly with the absence of a domestic partnership (p = 0.001) or marriage (p < 0.001) and with a high number of symptoms (≥5; p = 0.009). However, 73% had not talked with their urological oncologist about care options in case their health deteriorated though 36% of those were interested in having a conversation about it. Conclusions: Our results showed that 9 out of 10 patients reflected on their preferred place of death but only a few discussed it with anyone. Based on this finding, physicians and healthcare staff should initiate discussions about early care planning so that patients in incurable situations can express their wishes regarding their preferred place of death.

Would you be surprised? Prospective multicenter study of the Surprise Question as a screening tool to predict mortality in trauma patients

BACKGROUND

The Surprise Question (SQ) ("Would I be surprised if the patient died within the next year?") is a validated tool used to identify patients with limited life expectancy. Because it may have potential to expedite palliative care interventions per American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program Palliative Care Best Practices Guidelines, we sought to determine if trauma team members could use the SQ to accurately predict 1-year mortality in trauma patients.

METHODS

A multicenter, prospective, cohort study collected data (August 2020 to February 2021) on trauma team members' responses to the SQ at 24 hours from admission. One-year mortality was obtained via social security death index records. Positive/negative predictive values and accuracy were calculated overall, by provider role and by patient age.

RESULTS

Ten Level I/II centers enrolled 1,172 patients (87.9% blunt). The median age was 57 years (interquartile range, 36-74 years), and the median Injury Severity Score was 10 (interquartile range, 5-14 years). Overall 1-year mortality was 13.3%. Positive predictive value was low (30.5%) regardless of role. Mortality prediction minimally improved as age increased (positive predictive value highest between 65 and 74 years old, 34.5%) but consistently trended to overprediction of death, even in younger patients.

CONCLUSION

Trauma team members' ability to forecast 1-year mortality using the SQ at 24 hours appears limited perhaps because of overestimation of injury effects, preinjury conditions, and/or team bias. This has implications for the Trauma Quality Improvement Program Guidelines and suggests that more research is needed to determine the optimal time to screen trauma patients with the SQ.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level III.

Palliative Care in Nursing Home Residents with Young-Onset Dementia: Professional and Family Caregiver Perspectives

BACKGROUND

The evidence underpinning palliative care in dementia is mostly based on research in older populations. Little is known about the palliative care needs of people with young-onset dementia (YOD).

OBJECTIVE

To describe palliative care practices including advance care planning (ACP) in people with YOD residing in Dutch nursing homes.

METHODS

The study presents baseline questionnaire data from an observational cohort study. Physicians, family caregivers, and nursing staff completed questionnaires about 185 residents with YOD. The questionnaires included items on sociodemographics, quality of life measured with the quality of life in late-stage dementia (QUALID) scale, dementia-related somatic health problems, symptoms, pain medication, psychotropic drugs, and ACP.

RESULTS

The mean age was 63.9 (SD 5.8) years. Half (50.3%) of them were female. Alzheimer's disease dementia (42.2%) was the most prevalent subtype. The mean QUALID score was 24.0 (SD 7.9) as assessed by family caregivers, and 25.3 (SD 8.6) as assessed by the nursing staff. Swallowing problems were the most prevalent dementia-related health problem (11.4%). Agitation was often reported by physicians (42.0%) and nursing staff (40.5%). Psychotropics were prescribed frequently (72.3%). A minority had written advance directives (5.4%) or documentation on treatment preferences by the former general practitioner (27.2%). Global care goals most often focused on comfort (73.9%). Proportions of do-not-treat orders were higher than do-treat orders for all interventions except for hospitalization and antibiotics.

CONCLUSIONS

ACP must be initiated earlier, before nursing home admission. A palliative approach seems appropriate even though residents are relatively young and experience few dementia-related health problems.

Healthcare professionals' perceived barriers in providing palliative care in primary care and nursing homes: a survey study

Background

Palliative care in primary care and nursing home settings is becoming increasingly important. A multidimensional palliative care approach, provided by a multiprofessional team, is essential to meeting patients' and relatives' values, wishes, and needs. Factors that hamper the provision of palliative care in this context have not yet been fully explored.

Objectives

To identify the barriers to providing palliative care for patients at home or in nursing homes as perceived by healthcare professionals.

Design

Cross-sectional survey study.

Methods

A convenience sample of nurses, doctors, chaplains, and rehabilitation therapists working in primary care and at nursing homes in the Netherlands is used. The primary outcome is barriers, defined as statements with ⩾20% negative response. The survey contained 56 statements on palliative reasoning, communication, and multiprofessional collaboration. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics.

Results

In total, 249 healthcare professionals completed the survey (66% completion rate). The main barriers identified in the provision of palliative care were the use of measurement tools (43%), consultation of an expert (31%), estimation of life expectancy (29%), and documentation in the electronic health record (21% and 37%). In primary care, mainly organizational barriers were identified, whereas in nursing homes, most barriers were related to care content. Chaplains and rehabilitation therapists perceived the most barriers.

Conclusion

In primary care and nursing homes, there are barriers to the provision of palliative care. The provision of palliative care depends on the identification of patients with palliative care needs and is influenced by individual healthcare professionals, possibilities for consultation, and the electronic health record. An unambiguous and systematic approach within the multiprofessional team is needed, which should be patient-driven and tailored to the setting.

"Gives peace of mind" - Relatives' perspectives of end-of-life conversations

OBJECTIVES

Planning for end-of-life (EOL) and future treatment and care through advance care planning (ACP) is being increasingly implemented in different healthcare settings, and interest in ACP is growing. Several studies have emphasized the importance of relatives participating in conversations about wishes for EOL and being included in the process. Likewise, research has highlighted how relatives can be a valuable resource in an emergency setting. Although relatives have a significant role, few studies have investigated their perspectives of ACP and EOL conversations. This study explores relatives' experiences of the benefits and disadvantages of having conversations about wishes for EOL treatment.

METHODS

Semi-structured telephone interviews were held with 29 relatives who had participated in a conversation about EOL wishes with a patient and physician 2 years prior in a variety of Danish healthcare settings. The relatives were interviewed between September 2020 and June 2022. Content analysis was performed on the qualitative data.

RESULTS

The interviews revealed two themes: "gives peace of mind" and "enables more openness and common understanding of EOL." Relatives found that conversations about EOL could help assure that patients were heard and enhance their autonomy. These conversations relieved the relatives of responsibility by clarifying or confirming the patients' wishes, and they also made the relatives reflect on their own wishes for EOL. Moreover, they helped patients and relatives address other issues regarding EOL and made wishes more visible across settings.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS

The results indicate that conducting conversations about wishes for EOL treatment and having relatives participate in those conversations were perceived as beneficial for both relatives and patients. Involving relatives in ACP should be prioritized by physicians and healthcare personnel when holding conversations about EOL.

Examining predictors for 6-month mortality and healthcare utilization for patients admitted for heart failure in the acute care setting

BACKGROUND

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a leading cause of mortality and hospitalization. Past studies reported increased healthcare spending in the last year of life in high-income countries, and this has been characterized as inappropriate healthcare resource utilization. The study aimed to examine potentially (in)appropriate healthcare utilization by comparing healthcare utilization patterns across predicted and observed 6-month mortality among patients admitted for HF.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among patients presenting at the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary hospital with HF as primary diagnosis and admitted after their ED discharge. We used LASSO Cox proportional hazards models to predict 6-month mortality, and estimated healthcare utilization patterns of predicted and observed mortality across inpatient healthcare services.

RESULTS

3946 patients were admitted into the emergency department with a primary diagnosis of HF. From 57 candidate variables, 17 were retained in the final 6- month mortality model (C-statistic 0.66). Patients who died within 6-months of ED admission had longer length of stay (LOS) and less inpatient surgeries than those who survived. Patients with a greater predicted mortality risk were admitted to the ICU more often and had a longer LOS than those with a lower predicted mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

There were significant differences in healthcare resource utilization in patients admitted for AHF across predicted versus actual mortality. Lack of information on patients' preferences prevents the estimation of (in)appropriateness. Future studies should account for these considerations to estimate inappropriate healthcare utilization among these patients.

Endocrine treatment near the end of life among older women with metastatic breast cancer: a nationwide cohort study

Background

The appropriate time to discontinue chemotherapy at the end of life has been widely discussed. In contrast, few studies have investigated the patterns of endocrine treatment near death. In this study, we aimed to investigate the end-of-life endocrine treatment patterns of older women with metastatic breast cancer and explore characteristics associated with treatment.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of all older women (age ≥65 years) with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer who died in Sweden, 2016 - 2020. We used routinely collected administrative and health data with national coverage. Treatment initiation was defined as dispensing during the last three months of life with a nine-month washout period, while continuation and discontinuation were assessed by previous use during the same period. We used log-binomial models to explore factors associated with the continuation and initiation of endocrine treatments.

Results

We included 3098 deceased older women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer (median age 78). Overall, endocrine treatment was continued by 39% and initiated by 5% and of women during their last three months of life, while 31% discontinued and 24% did not use endocrine treatment during their last year of life. Endocrine treatment continuation was more likely among older and less educated women, and among women who had multi-dose drug dispensing, chemotherapy, and CDK4/6 use. Only treatment-related factors were associated with treatment initiation.

Conclusion

More than a third of women with metastatic breast cancer continue endocrine treatments potentially past the point of benefit, whereas late initiation is less frequent. Further research is warranted to determine whether our results reflect overtreatment at the end of life once patients' preferences and survival prognosis are considered.

Discrepancy in responses to the surprise question between hemodialysis nurses and physicians, with focus on patient clinical characteristics: A comparative study

INTRODUCTION

The surprise question (SQ) "Would I be surprised if this patient died within the next xx months" can be used by different professions to foresee the need of serious illness conversations in patients approaching end of life. However, little is known about the different perspectives of nurses and physicians in responses to the SQ and factors influencing their appraisals. The aim was to explore nurses' and physicians' responses to the SQ regarding patients on hemodialysis, and to investigate how these answers were associated with patient clinical characteristics.

METHODS

This comparative cross-sectional study included 361 patients for whom 112 nurses and 15 physicians responded to the SQ regarding 6 and 12 months. Patient characteristics, performance status, and comorbidities were obtained. Cohen's kappa was used to analyze the interrater agreement between nurses and physicians in their responses to the SQ and multivariable logistic regression was applied to reveal the independent association to patient clinical characteristics.

FINDINGS

Proportions of nurses and physicians responding to the SQ with "no, not surprised" was similar regarding 6 and 12 months. However, there was a substantial difference concerning which specific patient the nurses and physicians responded "no, not surprised", within 6 (κ = 0.366, p < 0.001, 95% CI = 0.288-0.474) and 12 months (κ = 0.379, p < 0.001, 95% CI = 0.281-0.477). There were also differences in the patient clinical characteristics associated with nurses' and physicians' responses to the SQ.

DISCUSSION

Nurses and physicians have different perspectives in their appraisal when responding to the SQ for patients on hemodialysis. This may reinforce the need for communication and discussion between nurses and physicians to identify the need of serious illness conversations in patients approaching the end of life, in order to adapt hemodialysis care to patient preferences and needs.

End-of-life wishes and care planning for patients with advanced skin cancer

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced or metastatic skin cancer have a limited life expectancy and the majority die as a result of the tumor despite modern treatment options. The preferences of these patients concerning care during their last phase of life are currently unknown.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

150 patients with advanced skin cancer (AJCC/UICC stage III or IV) were interviewed using a structured questionnaire.

RESULTS

75% of the respondents wished to die in their domestic environment, although a more advanced tumor stage and increased reflection upon end-of-life care lead away from this wish. However, only 42% reported having communicated this wish to someone else. 55% of the respondents had completed advance directives, while younger patients did this significantly less often (95% CI: 0.11-0.56; p  =  0.001). The majority of patients (62%) would like to have discussions about possibilities for end-of-life care with the attending dermato-oncologist.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the moment of death is unpredictable, early initiation of end-of-life advance care planning appears prudent. The attending dermato-oncologists should take the initiative to raise the subject with their patients during routine control visits. In this context, it may be useful to present available care options to patients and relatives and to design strategies for the event of deteriorating health.

Wünsche und Vorsorgeplanung für das Lebensende von Patienten mit fortgeschrittenem Hautkrebs: End of life wishes and care planning for patients with advanced skin cancer

Hintergrund

Patienten mit fortgeschrittenem oder metastasiertem Hautkrebs haben eine eingeschränkte Lebenserwartung und versterben zum größten Teil, trotz moderner Behandlungsmöglichkeiten, an dem Tumorleiden. Bislang ist unbekannt, welche Präferenzen für die Versorgung in der letzten Lebensphase bei diesen Patienten bestehen.

Patienten und Methodik

150 Patienten mit fortgeschrittenem Hautkrebs (AJCC/UICC Stadium III oder IV) wurden mit Hilfe eines strukturierten Fragebogens interviewt.

Ergebnisse

75% der Befragten wünschen sich im häuslichen Umfeld zu versterben, wobei ein höheres Tumorstadium und ein vermehrtes Nachdenken über die Versorgung am Lebensende davon wegführen. Nur 42% haben diesen Wunsch jedoch jemandem mitgeteilt. Vorsorgedokumente haben 55% der Teilnehmer ausgefüllt, während jüngere Patienten dies signifikant seltener tun (95%‐KI: 0,11–0,56; p = 0,001). Die Mehrzahl der Patienten (62%) wünscht sich Gespräche mit dem behandelnden Dermatoonkologen über Versorgungsmöglichkeiten am Lebensende.

Schlussfolgerungen

Auch wenn der Zeitpunkt des Todes nicht absehbar ist, so erscheint eine frühzeitig in die Wege geleitete vorausschauende Versorgungsplanung für das Lebensende sinnvoll. Die behandelnden Dermatoonkologen sollten hierbei die Initiative ergreifen und Patienten bei routinemäßigen Kontrollen auf dieses Thema ansprechen. Hier könnte es von Nutzen sein, den Patienten und Angehörigen die Versorgungsmöglichkeiten vorzustellen und Strategien für den Fall einer gesundheitlichen Verschlechterung zu erstellen.

Decoding biological age from face photographs using deep learning

Because humans age at different rates, a person's physical appearance may yield insights into their biological age and physiological health more reliably than their chronological age. In medicine, however, appearance is incorporated into medical judgments in a subjective and non-standardized fashion. In this study, we developed and validated FaceAge, a deep learning system to estimate biological age from easily obtainable and low-cost face photographs. FaceAge was trained on data from 58,851 healthy individuals, and clinical utility was evaluated on data from 6,196 patients with cancer diagnoses from two institutions in the United States and The Netherlands. To assess the prognostic relevance of FaceAge estimation, we performed Kaplan Meier survival analysis. To test a relevant clinical application of FaceAge, we assessed the performance of FaceAge in end-of-life patients with metastatic cancer who received palliative treatment by incorporating FaceAge into clinical prediction models. We found that, on average, cancer patients look older than their chronological age, and looking older is correlated with worse overall survival. FaceAge demonstrated significant independent prognostic performance in a range of cancer types and stages. We found that FaceAge can improve physicians' survival predictions in incurable patients receiving palliative treatments, highlighting the clinical utility of the algorithm to support end-of-life decision-making. FaceAge was also significantly associated with molecular mechanisms of senescence through gene analysis, while age was not. These findings may extend to diseases beyond cancer, motivating using deep learning algorithms to translate a patient's visual appearance into objective, quantitative, and clinically useful measures.

Should the Surprise Question be Used as a Prognostic Tool for People With Life-limiting Illnesses?

The surprise question screening tool ("Would I be surprised if this person died within the next 12 months?") was initially developed to identify possible palliative care needs. One controversial topic regarding the surprise question is whether it should be used as a prognostic tool (predicting survival) for patients with life-limiting illnesses. In this "Controversies in Palliative Care" article, three groups of expert clinicians independently answered this question. All experts provide an overview of current literature, practical advice, and opportunities for future research. All experts reported on the inconsistency of the prognostic capabilities of the surprise question. Two of the three expert groups felt that the surprise question should not be used as a prognostic tool due to these inconsistencies. The third expert group felt that the surprise question should be used as a prognostic tool, particularly for shorter time frames. The experts all highlighted that the original rationale for the surprise question was to trigger a further conversation about future treatment and a potential shift in the focus of the care, identifying patients who many benefit from specialist palliative care or advance care planning; however, many clinicians find this discussion a difficult one to initiate. The experts agreed that the benefit of the surprise question comes from its simplicity: a one-question tool that requires no specific information about the patient's condition. More research is needed to better support the application of this tool in routine practice, particularly in noncancer populations.

Advance Care Planning in the Netherlands

The Dutch health care system fosters a strong public health sector offering accessible generalist care including generalist palliative care. General practitioners are well positioned to conduct ACP, for example, to continue or initiate conversations after hospitalization. However, research shows that ACP conversations are often ad hoc and in frail patients, ACP is often only initiated when admitted to a nursing home by elderly care physicians who are on the staff. Tools that raise awareness of triggers to initiate ACP, screening tools, information brochures, checklists and training have been developed and implemented with funding by national programs which currently focus on implementation projects rather than or in addition to, research. The programs commonly require educational deliverables, patient and public involvement and addressing diversity in patient groups. A major challenge is how to implement ACP systematically and continuously across sectors and disciplines in a way that supports a proactive yet person-centered approach rather than an approach with an exclusive focus on medical procedures. Digital solutions can support continuity of care and communication about care plans. Solutions should fit a culture that prefers trust-based, informal deliberative approaches. This may be supported by involving disciplines other than medicine, such as nursing and spiritual caregiving, and public health approaches.

Palliative care to support the needs of adults with neurological disease

Neurological diseases cause physical, psychosocial, and spiritual or existential suffering from the time of their diagnosis. Palliative care focuses on improving quality of life for people with serious illness and their families by addressing this multidimensional suffering. Evidence from clinical trials supports the ability of palliative care to improve patient and caregiver outcomes by the use of outpatient or home-based palliative care interventions for people with motor neuron disease, multiple sclerosis, or Parkinson's disease; inpatient palliative care consultations for people with advanced dementia; telephone-based case management for people with dementia in the community; and nurse-led discussions with decision aids for people with advanced dementia in long-term care. Unfortunately, most people with neurological diseases do not get the support that they need for their palliative care under current standards of healthcare. Improving this situation requires the deployment of routine screening to identify individual palliative care needs, the integration of palliative care approaches into routine neurological care, and collaboration between neurologists and palliative care specialists. Research, education, and advocacy are also needed to raise standards of care.

Barriers and facilitators for healthcare professionals to the implementation of Multidisciplinary Timely Undertaken Advance Care Planning conversations at the outpatient clinic (the MUTUAL intervention): a sequential exploratory mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Advance Care Planning (ACP) enables patients to define and discuss their goals and preferences for future medical treatment and care. However, the structural implementation of ACP interventions remains challenging. The Multidisciplinary Timely Undertaken Advance Care Planning (MUTUAL) intervention has recently been developed which takes into account existing barriers and facilitators. We aimed to evaluate the MUTUAL intervention and identify the barriers and facilitators healthcare professionals experience in the implementation of the MUTUAL intervention and also to identify suggestions for improvement.

METHODS

We performed a sequential exploratory mixed-methods study at five outpatient clinics of one, 300-bed, non-academic hospital. Firstly, semi-structured interviews were performed with a purposive sample of healthcare professionals. The content of these interviews was used to specify the Measurement Instrument for Determinants of Innovations (MIDI). The MIDI was sent to all healthcare professionals. The interviews and questionnaires were used to clarify the results.

RESULTS

Eleven healthcare professionals participated in the interviews and 37 responded to the questionnaire. Eight barriers and 20 facilitators were identified. Healthcare professionals agreed that the elements of the MUTUAL intervention are clear, correct, complete, and simple - and the intervention is relevant for patients and their proxies. The main barriers are found within the user and the organisational domain. Barriers related to the organisation include: inadequate replacement of staff, insufficient staff, and insufficient time to introduce and invite patients. Several suggestions for improvement were made.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that healthcare professionals positively evaluate the MUTUAL intervention and are very receptive to implementing the MUTUAL intervention. Taking into account the suggestions for improvement may enhance further implementation.

Likelihood Ratios: An Important Concept for Palliative Physicians to Understand

Palliative care has several tools and questionnaires which are commonly used for patient-related outcomes and prognosis. As an example, the Surprise Question (I would or would not be surprised that this person would have died in a year) has been used as a screen for palliative care referral but also used as a prognostic tool. Diagnostic tests, prognostic tools, and tools for gauging outcomes have certain sensitivity and specificity in predicting a diagnosis or outcome. Clinicians often use positive and negative predictive values in judging the merits of a diagnostic tool or questionnaire. However positive and negative predictive values are highly dependent on the prevalence of disease or outcome in a population and thus are not portable across studies. Likelihood ratios are both portable across populations but also provide the strength of the diagnostic or predictive measure of a test or questionnaire. In this article, we review the value and limitations of likelihood ratios and illustrate the value of using likelihood ratios using 3 studies centered on the Surprise Question published in 2022.

The development and feasibility study of Multidisciplinary Timely Undertaken Advance Care Planning conversations at the outpatient clinic: the MUTUAL intervention

Background

Patients still receive non-beneficial treatments when nearing the end of life. Advance care planning (ACP) interventions have shown to positively influence compliance with end of life wishes. Hospital physicians seem to miss opportunities to engage in ACP, whereas patients visiting the outpatient clinic usually have one or more chronic conditions and are at risk for medical emergencies. So far, implemented ACP interventions have had limited impact. Structural implementation of ACP may be beneficial. We hypothesize that having ACP conversations more towards the end of life and involving the treating physician in the ACP conversation may help patient wishes and goals to become more concrete and more often documented, thus facilitating goal-concordant care.

Aim

To facilitate timely shared decision making and increase patient autonomy we aim to develop an ACP intervention at the outpatient clinic for frail patients and determine the feasibility of the intervention.

Methods

The United Kingdom’s Medical Research Council framework was used to structure the development of the ACP intervention. Key elements of the ACP intervention were determined by reviewing existing literature and an iterative process with stakeholders. The feasibility of the developed intervention was evaluated by a feasibility study of 20 ACP conversations at the geriatrics and pulmonology department of a non-academic hospital. Feasibility was assessed by analysing evaluation forms by patients, nurses and physicians and by evaluating with stakeholders. A general inductive approach was used for analysing comments. The developed intervention was described using the template for intervention description and replication (TIDieR).

Results

We developed a multidisciplinary timely undertaken ACP intervention at the outpatient clinic. Key components of the developed intervention consist of 1) timely patient selection 2) preparation of patient and healthcare professional 3) a scripted ACP conversation in a multidisciplinary setting and 4) documentation. 94.7% of the patients, 60.0% of the nurses and 68.8% of the physicians agreed that the benefits of the ACP conversation outweighed the potential burdens.

Conclusion

This study showed that the developed ACP intervention is feasible and considered valuable by patients and healthcare professionals.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12904-022-01005-3.