Estimating State Transitions for Opioid Use Disorders

Cost-effectiveness of flexible take-home buprenorphine-naloxone versus methadone for treatment of prescription-type opioid use disorder

BACKGROUND

Our objective was to examine the cost-effectiveness of flexible take-home buprenorphine-naloxone (BNX) versus methadone alongside the OPTIMA trial in Canada.

METHODS

The OPTIMA study was a pragmatic, open-label, noninferiority, two-arm randomized controlled trial, to assess the comparative effectiveness of flexible take-home BNX vs. methadone in routine clinical care for individuals with prescription-type opioid use disorder. We evaluated cost-effectiveness using a semi-Markov cohort model. Probabilities of overdose were calibrated, accounting for fentanyl prevalence and other overdose risk factors such as naloxone availability. We considered health sector and societal cost perspectives, including costs (2020 CAD) for treatment, health resource use, criminal activity, and health state-specific preference weights as outcomes to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Six-month and lifetime (3% annual discount rate) time-horizons were explored.

RESULTS

Over a lifetime time horizon, individuals accumulated -0.144 [CI: -0.302, -0.025] incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in BNX compared with methadone. Incremental costs were -$2047 [CI: -$39,197, $24,250] from a societal perspective, and -$4549 [CI: -$6332, -$3001] from a health sector perspective. Over a six-month time-horizon, individuals accumulated 0.002 [credible interval (CI): -0.011, 0.016] incremental QALYs in BNX compared with methadone. Incremental costs were -$307 [CI: -$10,385, $8466] from a societal perspective and -$1111 [CI: -$1517, -$631] from a health sector perspective. BNX was dominated (costlier, less effective) in 49.7% of simulations when adopting a societal perspective over a lifetime time horizon.

CONCLUSIONS

Flexible take-home BNX was not cost-effective versus methadone over a lifetime time horizon, resulting from better treatment retention in methadone compared to BNX.

Cost-utility analysis of single nucleotide polymorphism panel-based machine learning algorithm to predict risk of opioid use disorder

Aim: To conduct a cost-utility analysis of a novel genetic diagnostic test (OUDTEST) for risk of developing opioid use disorder for elective orthopedic surgery patients. Materials & Methods: A simulation model assessed cost-effectiveness and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for OUDTEST from private insurer and self-insured employer perspectives over a 5-year time horizon for a hypothetical patient population. Results: OUDTEST was found to cost less and increase QALYs, over a 5-year period for private insurance (savings US$2510; QALYs 0.02) and self-insured employers (-US$2682; QALYs 0.02). OUDTEST was a dominant strategy in 71.1% (private insurance) and 72.7% (self-insured employer) of model iterations. Sensitivity analyses revealed robust results except for physician compliance. Conclusion: OUDTEST was expected to be a cost-effective solution for personalizing postsurgical pain management in orthopedic patients.

Economic Evaluation in Opioid Modeling: Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The rapid increase in opioid overdose and opioid use disorder (OUD) over the past 20 years is a complex problem associated with significant economic costs for healthcare systems and society. Simulation models have been developed to capture and identify ways to manage this complexity and to evaluate the potential costs of different strategies to reduce overdoses and OUD. A review of simulation-based economic evaluations is warranted to fully characterize this set of literature.

METHODS

A systematic review of simulation-based economic evaluation (SBEE) studies in opioid research was initiated by searches in PubMed, EMBASE, and EbscoHOST. Extraction of a predefined set of items and a quality assessment were performed for each study.

RESULTS

The screening process resulted in 23 SBEE studies ranging by year of publication from 1999 to 2019. Methodological quality of the cost analyses was moderately high. The most frequently evaluated strategies were methadone and buprenorphine maintenance treatments; the only harm reduction strategy explored was naloxone distribution. These strategies were consistently found to be cost-effective, especially naloxone distribution and methadone maintenance. Prevention strategies were limited to abuse-deterrent opioid formulations. Less than half (39%) of analyses adopted a societal perspective in their estimation of costs and effects from an opioid-related intervention. Prevention strategies and studies' accounting for patient and physician preference, changing costs, or result stratification were largely ignored in these SBEEs.

CONCLUSION

The review shows consistently favorable cost analysis findings for naloxone distribution strategies and opioid agonist treatments and identifies major gaps for future research.

Longitudinal trends in nonmedical prescription opioid use in a cohort of rural Appalachian people who use drugs

Rural Appalachia remains an epicenter of the prescription opioid epidemic. In 2008, a cohort study was undertaken to examine longitudinal trends in nonmedical prescription opioid use (NMPOU). Eight waves of data (2008-2020) from the Social Networks among Appalachian People (SNAP) cohort were utilized for the current analysis. Only those who reported recent (past 6-month) NMPOU at baseline are included (n = 498, 99%). Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to model factors associated with NMPOU over time. Recent NMPOU declined significantly over the past decade (p < .001). However, 54.1% of participants still engaged in NMPOU at their most recent follow-up. Receipt of benefits for a physical or mental disability (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.11, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.98, 4.90) and self-described poor health status (aOR: 3.67, 95% CI: 1.61, 8.37) were both associated with NMPOU. All treatment modalities (methadone maintenance, residential, outpatient counseling) tested in the model, with the notable exception of detoxification, were associated with significantly lower odds of NMPOU. Although significant declines in prescription opioid misuse were observed in the cohort, more than half of all participants were engaged in NMPOU more than a decade after entering the study. Substance use disorder (SUD) treatment (excluding detoxification) was shown associated with reduced odds of continued NMPOU; therefore, increasing access to evidence-based treatments should be a priority in rural areas affected by the ongoing opioid epidemic.

Opioid agonist treatment and fatal overdose risk in a state-wide US population receiving opioid use disorder services

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Evidence from randomized controlled trials establishes that medication treatment with methadone and buprenorphine reduces opioid use and improves treatment retention. However, little is known about the role of such medications compared with non-medication treatments in mitigating overdose risk among US patient populations receiving treatment in usual care settings. This study compared overdose mortality among those in medication versus non-medication treatments in specialty care settings.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using state-wide treatment data linked to death records. Survival analysis was used to analyze data in a time-to-event framework.

SETTING

Services delivered by 757 providers in publicly funded out-patient specialty treatment programs in Maryland, USA between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 48 274 adults admitted to out-patient specialty treatment programs in 2015-16 for primary diagnosis of opioid use disorder.

MEASUREMENTS

Main exposure was time in medication treatment (methadone/buprenorphine), time following medication treatment, time exposed to non-medication treatments and time following non-medication treatment. Main outcome was opioid overdose death during and after treatment. Hazard ratios were calculated using Cox proportional hazard regression. Propensity score weights were adjusted for patient information on sex, age, race, region of residence, marital and veteran status, employment, homelessness, primary opioid, mental health treatment, arrests and criminal justice referral.

FINDINGS

The study population experienced 371 opioid overdose deaths. Periods in medication treatment were associated with substantially reduced hazard of opioid overdose death compared with periods in non-medication treatment [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.08-0.40]. Periods after discharge from non-medication treatment (aHR = 5.45, 95% CI = 2.80-9.53) and medication treatment (aHR = 5.85, 95% CI = 3.10-11.02) had similar and substantially elevated risks compared with periods in non-medication treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Maryland patients in specialty opioid treatment, periods in treatment are protective against overdose compared with periods out of care. Methadone and buprenorphine are associated with significantly lower overdose death compared with non-medication treatments during care but not after treatment is discontinued.

Cost-Effectiveness of Intranasal Naloxone Distribution to High-Risk Prescription Opioid Users

OBJECTIVES

To determine the cost-effectiveness of pharmacy-based intranasal naloxone distribution to high-risk prescription opioid (RxO) users.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model with an attached tree for pharmacy-based naloxone distribution to high-risk RxO users using 2 approaches: one-time and biannual follow-up distribution. The Markov structure had 6 health states: high-risk RxO use, low-risk RxO use, no RxO use, illicit opioid use, no illicit opioid use, and death. The tree modeled the probability of an overdose happening, the overdose being witnessed, naloxone being available, and the overdose resulting in death. High-risk RxO users were defined as individuals with prescription opioid doses greater than or equal to 90 morphine milligram equivalents (MME) per day. We used a monthly cycle length, lifetime horizon, and US healthcare perspective. Costs (2018) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted 3% annually. Microsimulation was performed with 100 000 individual trials. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

One-time distribution of naloxone prevented 14 additional overdose deaths per 100 000 persons, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $56 699 per QALY. Biannual follow-up distribution led to 107 additional lives being saved with an ICER of $84 799 per QALY compared with one-time distribution. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that a biannual follow-up approach would be cost-effective 50% of the time at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100 000 per QALY. Naloxone effectiveness and proportion of overdoses witnessed were the 2 most influential parameters for biannual distribution.

CONCLUSION

Both one-time and biannual follow-up naloxone distribution in community pharmacies would modestly reduce opioid overdose deaths and be cost-effective at a WTP of $100 000 per QALY.

Opioid use disorder

Opioid use disorder (OUD) is a chronic relapsing disorder that, whilst initially driven by activation of brain reward neurocircuits, increasingly engages anti-reward neurocircuits that drive adverse emotional states and relapse. However, successful recovery is possible with appropriate treatment, although with a persisting propensity to relapse. The individual and public health burdens of OUD are immense; 26.8 million people were estimated to be living with OUD globally in 2016, with >100,000 opioid overdose deaths annually, including >47,000 in the USA in 2017. Well-conducted trials have demonstrated that long-term opioid agonist therapy with methadone and buprenorphine have great efficacy for OUD treatment and can save lives. New forms of the opioid receptor antagonist naltrexone are also being studied. Some frequently used approaches have less scientifically robust evidence but are nevertheless considered important, including community preventive strategies, harm reduction interventions to reduce adverse sequelae from ongoing use and mutual aid groups. Other commonly used approaches, such as detoxification alone, lack scientific evidence. Delivery of effective prevention and treatment responses is often complicated by coexisting comorbidities and inadequate support, as well as by conflicting public and political opinions. Science has a crucial role to play in informing public attitudes and developing fuller evidence to understand OUD and its associated harms, as well as in obtaining the evidence today that will improve the prevention and treatment interventions of tomorrow.

Short-Term Effects and Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Hepatitis C Testing in Prenatal Care

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the clinical effects and cost-effectiveness of universal prenatal hepatitis C screening, and to calculate potential life expectancy, quality of life, and health care costs associated with universal prenatal hepatitis C screening and linkage to treatment.

METHODS

Using a stochastic individual-level microsimulation model, we simulated the lifetimes of 250 million pregnant women matched at baseline with the U.S. childbearing population on age, injection drug use behaviors, and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection status. Modeled outcomes included hepatitis C diagnosis, treatment and cure, lifetime health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing universal prenatal hepatitis C screening to current practice. We modeled whether neonates exposed to maternal HCV at birth were identified as such.

RESULTS

Pregnant women with hepatitis C infection lived 1.21 years longer and had 16% lower HCV-attributable mortality with universal prenatal hepatitis C screening, which had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,000 per QALY gained compared with current practice. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remained below $100,000 per QALY gained in most sensitivity analyses; notable exceptions included incremental cost-effectiveness ratios above $100,000 when assuming mean time to cirrhosis of 70 years, a cost greater than $500,000 per false positive diagnosis, or population HCV infection prevalence below 0.16%. Universal prenatal hepatitis C screening increased identification of neonates exposed to HCV at birth from 44% to 92%.

CONCLUSIONS

In our model, universal prenatal hepatitis C screening improves health outcomes in women with HCV infection, improves identification of HCV exposure in neonates born at risk, and is cost-effective.

The costs of crime during and after publicly funded treatment for opioid use disorders: a population-level study for the state of California

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Treatment for opioid use disorders (OUD) reduces the risk of mortality and infectious disease transmission; however, opportunities to quantify the potential economic benefits of associated decreases in drug-related crime are scarce. This paper aimed to estimate the costs of crime during and after periods of engagement in publicly funded treatment for OUD to compare total costs of crime during a hypothetical 6-month period following initiation of opioid agonist treatment (OAT) versus detoxification.

DESIGN

Retrospective, administrative data-based cohort study with comprehensive information on drug treatment and criminal justice systems interactions.

SETTING

Publicly funded drug treatment facilities in California, USA (2006-10).

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 31 659 individuals admitted for the first time to treatment for OUD, and who were linked with criminal justice and mortality data, were followed during a median 2.3 years. Median age at first treatment admission was 32, 35.8% were women and 37.1% primarily used prescription opioids.

MEASUREMENTS

Daily costs of crime (US$2014) were calculated from a societal perspective and were composed of the costs of policing, court, corrections and criminal victimization. We estimated the average marginal effect of treatment engagement in OAT or detoxification adjusting for potential fixed and time-varying confounders, including drug use and criminal justice system involvement prior to treatment initiation.

FINDINGS

Daily costs of crime during treatment compared with after treatment were $126 lower for OAT [95% confidence interval (CI) = $116, $136] and $144 lower for detoxification (95% CI = $135, $154). Summing the costs of crime during and after treatment over a hypothetical 6-month period using the observed median durations of OAT (161 days) and detoxification (19 days), we estimated that enrolling an individual in OAT as opposed to detoxification would save $17 550 ($16 840, $18 383).

CONCLUSIONS

In publicly funded drug treatment facilities in California, USA, engagement in treatment for opioid use disorders is associated with lower costs of crime in the 6 months following initiation of treatment, and the economic benefits were far greater for individuals receiving time-unlimited treatment.