Establishing the Value of Diagnostic and Prognostic Tests in Health Technology Assessment

HTA model for laboratory medicine technologies: overview of approaches adopted in some international agencies

The Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Working Group of the Emerging Technology Division of International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine (IFCC) aims to develop a methodological approach for producing structured HTA information for laboratory medicine technologies. This approach seeks to support decision-making processes at the country, regional, and/or hospital levels regarding the introduction of specific technologies. The focus of this model will primarily be on defining assessment elements within the domains of 'organizational aspects' and 'costs and economic evaluations', potentially differentiated by the type of diagnostic technology (e.g., genetic tests, molecular tests). To achieve this project's goal, a literature review and examination of websites of international HTA agencies have been conducted. The research aims to identify multidisciplinary methodological approaches used to assess laboratory diagnostic technologies and to pinpoint the domains and assessment elements utilized. We found 7 methodological articles describing methodological approaches adopted to assess laboratory diagnostic technologies. Among the HTA organizations considered, 23 reports were found, of which 7 were produced by the European Network of HTA (EUnetHTA), 4 by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Diagnostic Assessment Program (NICE DAP), and 12 by other HTA agencies. The EUnetHTA reports were rapid collaborative assessments covering various domains, while the NICE DAP reports focused on diagnostic guidances, including descriptions of technologies, clinical need and practice, diagnostic tests, accuracy, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness. Finally, a survey targeting laboratory professionals will be conducted to introduce assessment elements, differentiated by the type of diagnostic technology, primarily for organizational and economic domains.

Modelling the Cost-Effectiveness of Diagnostic Tests

Diagnostic tests are used to determine whether a disease or condition is present or absent in a patient, who will typically be suspected of having the disease or condition due to symptoms or clinical signs. Economic evaluations of diagnostic tests (e.g. cost-effectiveness analyses) can be used to determine whether a test produces sufficient benefit to justify its cost. Evidence on the benefits conferred by a test is often restricted to its accuracy, which means mathematical models are required to estimate the impact of a test on outcomes that matter to patients and health payers. It is important to realise the case for introducing a new test may not be restricted to its accuracy, but extend to factors such as time to diagnosis and acceptability for patients. These and other considerations may mean the common modelling approach, the decision tree, is inappropriate for underpinning an economic evaluation. There are no consensus guidelines on how economic evaluations of diagnostic tests should be conducted-this article attempts to explore the common challenges encountered in economic evaluations, suggests solutions to those challenges, and identifies some areas where further methodological work may be necessary.

EarlyCDT Lung blood test for risk classification of solid pulmonary nodules: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

EarlyCDT Lung (Oncimmune Holdings plc, Nottingham, UK) is a blood test to assess malignancy risk in people with solid pulmonary nodules. It measures the presence of seven lung cancer-associated autoantibodies. Elevated levels of these autoantibodies may indicate malignant disease. The results of the test might be used to modify the risk of malignancy estimated by existing risk calculators, including the Brock and Herder models.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to determine the diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EarlyCDT Lung; and to develop a conceptual model and identify evidence requirements for a robust cost-effectiveness analysis.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE (including Epub Ahead of Print, In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE Daily and Ovid MEDLINE), EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Science Citation Index, EconLit, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database ( NHS EED ) and the international Health Technology Assessment database were searched on 8 March 2021.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review was performed of evidence on EarlyCDT Lung, including diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Study quality was assessed with the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies-2 tool. Evidence on other components of the pulmonary nodule diagnostic pathway (computerised tomography surveillance, Brock risk, Herder risk, positron emission tomography-computerised tomography and biopsy) was also reviewed. When feasible, bivariate meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy were performed. Clinical outcomes were synthesised narratively. A simulation study investigated the clinical impact of using EarlyCDT Lung. Additional reviews of cost-effectiveness studies evaluated (1) other diagnostic strategies for lung cancer and (2) screening approaches for lung cancer. A conceptual model was developed.

RESULTS

A total of 47 clinical publications on EarlyCDT Lung were identified, but only five cohorts (695 patients) reported diagnostic accuracy data on patients with pulmonary nodules. All cohorts were small or at high risk of bias. EarlyCDT Lung on its own was found to have poor diagnostic accuracy, with a summary sensitivity of 20.2% (95% confidence interval 10.5% to 35.5%) and specificity of 92.2% (95% confidence interval 86.2% to 95.8%). This sensitivity was substantially lower than that estimated by the manufacturer (41.3%). No evidence on the clinical impact of EarlyCDT Lung was identified. The simulation study suggested that EarlyCDT Lung might potentially have some benefit when considering intermediate risk nodules (10-70% risk) after Herder risk analysis. Two cost-effectiveness studies on EarlyCDT Lung for pulmonary nodules were identified; none was considered suitable to inform the current decision problem. The conceptualisation process identified three core components for a future cost-effectiveness assessment of EarlyCDT Lung: (1) the features of the subpopulations and relevant heterogeneity, (2) the way EarlyCDT Lung test results affect subsequent clinical management decisions and (3) how changes in these decisions can affect outcomes. All reviewed studies linked earlier diagnosis to stage progression and stage shift to final outcomes, but evidence on these components was sparse.

LIMITATIONS

The evidence on EarlyCDT Lung among patients with pulmonary nodules was very limited, preventing meta-analyses and economic analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence on EarlyCDT Lung among patients with pulmonary nodules is insufficient to draw any firm conclusions as to its diagnostic accuracy or clinical or economic value.

FUTURE WORK

Prospective cohort studies, in which EarlyCDT Lung is used among patients with identified pulmonary nodules, are required to support a future assessment of the clinical and economic value of this test. Studies should investigate the diagnostic accuracy and clinical impact of EarlyCDT Lung in combination with Brock and Herder risk assessments. A well-designed cost-effectiveness study is also required, integrating emerging relevant evidence with the recommendations in this report.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42021242248.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 49. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Modelling approaches for histology-independent cancer drugs to inform NICE appraisals: a systematic review and decision-framework

BACKGROUND

The first histology-independent marketing authorisation in Europe was granted in 2019. This was the first time that a cancer treatment was approved based on a common biomarker rather than the location in the body at which the tumour originated. This research aims to explore the implications for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals.

METHODS

Targeted reviews were undertaken to determine the type of evidence that is likely to be available at the point of marketing authorisation and the analyses required to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Several challenges were identified concerning the design and conduct of trials for histology-independent products, the greater levels of heterogeneity within the licensed population and the use of surrogate end points. We identified approaches to address these challenges by reviewing key statistical literature that focuses on the design and analysis of histology-independent trials and by undertaking a systematic review to evaluate the use of response end points as surrogate outcomes for survival end points. We developed a decision framework to help to inform approval and research policies for histology-independent products. The framework explored the uncertainties and risks associated with different approval policies, including the role of further data collection, pricing schemes and stratified decision-making.

RESULTS

We found that the potential for heterogeneity in treatment effects, across tumour types or other characteristics, is likely to be a central issue for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Bayesian hierarchical methods may serve as a useful vehicle to assess the level of heterogeneity across tumours and to estimate the pooled treatment effects for each tumour, which can inform whether or not the assumption of homogeneity is reasonable. Our review suggests that response end points may not be reliable surrogates for survival end points. However, a surrogate-based modelling approach, which captures all relevant uncertainty, may be preferable to the use of immature survival data. Several additional sources of heterogeneity were identified as presenting potential challenges to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisal, including the cost of testing, baseline risk, quality of life and routine management costs. We concluded that a range of alternative approaches will be required to address different sources of heterogeneity to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. An exemplar case study was developed to illustrate the nature of the assessments that may be required.

CONCLUSIONS

Adequately designed and analysed basket studies that assess the homogeneity of outcomes and allow borrowing of information across baskets, where appropriate, are recommended. Where there is evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effects and estimates of cost-effectiveness, consideration should be given to optimised recommendations. Routine presentation of the scale of the consequences of heterogeneity and decision uncertainty may provide an important additional approach to the assessments specified in the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence methods guide.

FURTHER RESEARCH

Further exploration of Bayesian hierarchical methods could help to inform decision-makers on whether or not there is sufficient evidence of homogeneity to support pooled analyses. Further research is also required to determine the appropriate basis for apportioning genomic testing costs where there are multiple targets and to address the challenges of uncontrolled Phase II studies, including the role and use of surrogate end points.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 76. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Genetic Testing

Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Approximately 3–5% of CRCs are associated with hereditary cancer syndromes. Individuals who harbor germline mutations are at an increased risk of developing early onset CRC, as well as extracolonic tumors. Genetic testing can identify genes that cause these syndromes. Early detection could facilitate the initiation of targeted prevention strategies and surveillance for CRC patients and their families. The aim of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of CRC genetic testing. We utilized a cross-sectional design to determine the cost-effectiveness of CRC genetic testing as compared to the usual screening method (iFOBT) from the provider’s perspective. Data on costs and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of 200 CRC patients from three specialist general hospitals were collected. A mixed-methods approach of activity-based costing, top-down costing, and extracted information from a clinical pathway was used to estimate provider costs. Patients and family members’ HRQoL were measured using the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire. Data from the Malaysian Study on Cancer Survival (MySCan) were used to calculate patient survival. Cost-effectiveness was measured as cost per life-year (LY) and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The provider cost for CRC genetic testing was high as compared to that for the current screening method. The current practice for screening is cost-saving as compared to genetic testing. Using a 10-year survival analysis, the estimated number of LYs gained for CRC patients through genetic testing was 0.92 years, and the number of QALYs gained was 1.53 years. The cost per LY gained and cost per QALY gained were calculated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) showed that genetic testing dominates iFOBT testing. CRC genetic testing is cost-effective and could be considered as routine CRC screening for clinical practice.

Evidence-Based Decision Making 3: Health Technology Assessment

This chapter begins with a brief introduction to health technology assessment (HTA). HTA is concerned with the systematic evaluation of the consequences of the adoption and use of new health technologies and to improve the evidence on existing technologies. The objective of mainstream HTA is to support evidence-based decision- and policy-making that encourage the uptake of efficient and effective health-care technologies. This chapter provides a basic framework for conducting an HTA, as well as some fundamental concepts and challenges in assessing health technologies. Whether HTA is beneficial-supporting timely access to needed technologies-or detrimental depends on three critical issues: when the assessment is performed; how it is performed; and how the findings are used.

Advancing Biomarker Development Through Convergent Engagement: Summary Report of the 2nd International Danube Symposium on Biomarker Development, Molecular Imaging and Applied Diagnostics; March 14-16, 2018; Vienna, Austria

Here, we report on the outcome of the 2nd International Danube Symposium on advanced biomarker development that was held in Vienna, Austria, in early 2018. During the meeting, cross-speciality participants assessed critical aspects of non-invasive, quantitative biomarker development in view of the need to expand our understanding of disease mechanisms and the definition of appropriate strategies both for molecular diagnostics and personalised therapies. More specifically, panelists addressed the main topics, including the current status of disease characterisation by means of non-invasive imaging, histopathology and liquid biopsies as well as strategies of gaining new understanding of disease formation, modulation and plasticity to large-scale molecular imaging as well as integrative multi-platform approaches. Highlights of the 2018 meeting included dedicated sessions on non-invasive disease characterisation, development of disease and therapeutic tailored biomarkers, standardisation and quality measures in biospecimens, new therapeutic approaches and socio-economic challenges of biomarker developments. The scientific programme was accompanied by a roundtable discussion on identification and implementation of sustainable strategies to address the educational needs in the rapidly evolving field of molecular diagnostics. The central theme that emanated from the 2nd Donau Symposium was the importance of the conceptualisation and implementation of a convergent approach towards a disease characterisation beyond lesion-counting "lumpology" for a cost-effective and patient-centric diagnosis, therapy planning, guidance and monitoring. This involves a judicious choice of diagnostic means, the adoption of clinical decision support systems and, above all, a new way of communication involving all stakeholders across modalities and specialities. Moreover, complex diseases require a comprehensive diagnosis by converging parameters from different disciplines, which will finally yield to a precise therapeutic guidance and outcome prediction. While it is attractive to focus on technical advances alone, it is important to develop a patient-centric approach, thus asking "What can we do with our expertise to help patients?"

Evaluation of precision medicine assessment reports of the Belgian healthcare payer to inform reimbursement decisions

INTRODUCTION

Precision medicines rely on companion diagnostics to identify patient subgroups eligible for receiving the pharmaceutical product. Until recently, the Belgian public health payer, RIZIV-INAMI, assessed precision medicines and companion diagnostics separately for reimbursement decisions. As both components are considered co-dependent technologies, their assessment should be conducted jointly from a health technology assessment (HTA) perspective. As of July 2019, a novel procedure was implemented accommodating for this joint assessment practice. The aim of this research was to formulate recommendations to improve the assessment in the novel procedure.

METHODS

This study evaluated the precision medicine assessment reports of RIZIV-INAMI of the last 5 years under the former assessment procedure. The HTA framework for co-dependent technologies developed by Merlin et al. for the Australian healthcare system was used as a reference standard in this evaluation. Criteria were scored as either present or not present.

RESULTS

Thirteen assessment reports were evaluated. Varying scores between reports were obtained for the domain establishing the co-dependent relationship between diagnostic and pharmaceutical. Domains evaluating the clinical utility of the biomarker and the cost-effectiveness performed poorly, whereas the budget impact and the transfer of trial data to the local setting performed well.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Based on these results we recommend three amendments for the novel procedure. (i) The implementation of the linked evidence approach when direct evidence of clinical utility is not present, (ii) incorporation of a bias assessment tool, and (iii) further specify guidelines for submission and assessment to decrease the variability of reported evidence between assessment reports.

Health Economic Decision Tree Models of Diagnostics for Dummies: A Pictorial Primer

Health economics is a discipline of economics applied to health care. One method used in health economics is decision tree modelling, which extrapolates the cost and effectiveness of competing interventions over time. Such decision tree models are the basis of reimbursement decisions in countries using health technology assessment for decision making. In many instances, these competing interventions are diagnostic technologies. Despite a wealth of excellent resources describing the decision analysis of diagnostics, two critical errors persist: not including diagnostic test accuracy in the structure of decision trees and treating sequential diagnostics as independent. These errors have consequences for the accuracy of model results, and thereby impact on decision making. This paper sets out to overcome these errors using color to link fundamental epidemiological calculations to decision tree models in a visually and intuitively appealing pictorial format. The paper is a must-read for modelers developing decision trees in the area of diagnostics for the first time and decision makers reviewing diagnostic reimbursement models.

How to Ease the Pain of Taking a Diagnostic Point of Care Test to the Market: A Framework for Evidence Development

Bringing a diagnostic point of care test (POCT) to a healthcare market can be a painful experience as it requires the manufacturer to meet considerable technical, financial, managerial, and regulatory challenges. In this opinion article we propose a framework for developing the evidence needed to support product development, marketing, and adoption. We discuss each step in the evidence development pathway from the invention phase to the implementation of a new POCT in the healthcare system. We highlight the importance of articulating the value propositions and documenting the care pathway. We provide guidance on how to conduct care pathway analysis as little has been published on this. We summarize the clinical, economic and qualitative studies to be considered for developing evidence, and provide useful links to relevant software, on-line applications, websites, and give practical advice. We also provide advice on patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE), and on product management. Our aim is to help device manufacturers to understand the concepts and terminology used in evaluation of in vitro diagnostics (IVDs) so that they can communicate effectively with evaluation methodologists, statisticians, and health economists. Manufacturers of medical tests and devices can use the proposed framework to plan their evidence development strategy in alignment with device development, applications for regulatory approval, and publication.

Use of Decision Modelling in Economic Evaluations of Diagnostic Tests: An Appraisal and Review of Health Technology Assessments in the UK

Diagnostic tests play an important role in the clinical decision-making process by providing information that enables patients to be identified and stratified to the most appropriate treatment and management strategies. Decision analytic modelling facilitates the synthesis of evidence from multiple sources to evaluate the cost effectiveness of diagnostic tests. This study critically reviews the methods used to model the cost effectiveness of diagnostic tests in UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) reports. UK NIHR HTA reports published between 2009 and 2018 were screened to identify those reporting an economic evaluation of a diagnostic test using decision analytic modelling. Existing decision modelling checklists were identified in the literature and a modified checklist tailored to diagnostic economic evaluations was developed, piloted and used to assess the diagnostic models in HTA reports. Of 728 HTA reports published during the study period, 55 met the inclusion criteria. The majority of models performed well with a clearly defined decision problem and analytical perspective (89% of HTAs met the criterion). The model structure usually reflected the care pathway and progression of the health condition. However, there are areas requiring improvement. These are predominantly systematic identification of treatment effects (20% met), poor selection of comparators (50% met) and assumed independence of tests used in sequence (32% took correlation between sequential tests into consideration). The complexity and constraints of performing decision analysis of diagnostic tests on costs and health outcomes makes it particularly challenging and, as a result, quality issues remain. This review provides a comprehensive assessment of modelling in HTA reports, highlights problems and gives recommendations for future diagnostic modelling practice.