Predicting suicide risk in 137,112 people with severe mental illness in Finland: external validation of the Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide tool (OxMIS)

Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide tool (OxMIS) is a standardised, scalable, and transparent instrument for suicide risk assessment in people with severe mental illness (SMI) based on 17 sociodemographic, criminal history, familial, and clinical risk factors. However, alongside most prediction models in psychiatry, external validations are currently lacking. We utilised a Finnish population sample of all persons diagnosed by mental health services with SMI (schizophrenia-spectrum and bipolar disorders) between 1996 and 2017 (n = 137,112). To evaluate the performance of OxMIS, we initially calculated the predicted 12-month suicide risk for each individual by weighting risk factors by effect sizes reported in the original OxMIS prediction model and converted to a probability. This probability was then used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the OxMIS model in this external sample. Within a year of assessment, 1.1% of people with SMI (n = 1475) had died by suicide. The overall discrimination of the tool was good, with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.71). The model initially overestimated suicide risks in those with elevated predicted risks of >5% over 12 months (Harrell's E_max = 0.114), which applied to 1.3% (n = 1780) of the cohort. However, when we used a 5% maximum predicted suicide risk threshold as is recommended clinically, the calibration was excellent (ICI = 0.002; E_max = 0.005). Validating clinical prediction tools using routinely collected data can address research gaps in prediction psychiatry and is a necessary step to translating such models into clinical practice.

Modifiable risk factors for inpatient violence in psychiatric hospital: prospective study and prediction model

BACKGROUND

Violence perpetrated by psychiatric inpatients is associated with modifiable factors. Current structured approaches to assess inpatient violence risk lack predictive validity and linkage to interventions.

METHODS

Adult psychiatric inpatients on forensic and general wards in three psychiatric hospitals were recruited and followed up prospectively for 6 months. Information on modifiable (dynamic) risk factors were collected every 1-4 weeks, and baseline background factors. Data were transferred to a web-based monitoring system (FOxWeb) to calculate a total dynamic risk score. Outcomes were extracted from an incident-reporting system recording aggression and interpersonal violence. The association between total dynamic score and violent incidents was assessed by multilevel logistic regression and compared with dynamic score excluded.

RESULTS

We recruited 89 patients and conducted 624 separate assessments (median 5/patient). Mean age was 39 (s.d. 12.5) years with 20% (n = 18) female. Common diagnoses were schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (70%, n = 62) and personality disorders (20%, n = 18). There were 93 violent incidents. Factors contributing to violence risk were a total dynamic score of ⩾1 (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.25-9.20), 10-year increase in age (OR 0.67, 0.47-0.96), and female sex (OR 2.78, 1.04-7.40). Non-significant associations with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder were found (OR 0.50, 0.20-1.21). In a fixed-effect model using all covariates, AUC was 0.77 (0.72-0.82) and 0.75 (0.70-0.80) when the dynamic score was excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

In predicting violence risk in individuals with psychiatric disorders, modifiable factors added little incremental value beyond static ones in a psychiatric inpatient setting. Future work should make a clear distinction between risk factors that assist in prediction and those linked to needs.

Prediction of reoffending risk in men convicted of sexual offences: development and validation of novel and scalable risk assessment tools (OxRIS)

BACKGROUND

Current risk assessment tools have a limited evidence base with few validations, poor reporting of outcomes, and rarely include modifiable factors.

METHODS

We examined a national cohort of men convicted of sexual crimes in Sweden. We developed prediction models for three outcomes: violent (including sexual), any, and sexual reoffending. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to develop multivariable prediction models and validated these in an external sample. We reported discrimination and calibration statistics at prespecified cut-offs.

FINDINGS

We identified 16,231 men convicted of sexual offences, of whom 14.8% violently reoffended during a mean follow up of 38 months, 31.4% for any crime (34 months), and 3.6% for sexual crimes (42 months). Models for violent and any reoffending showed good discrimination and calibration. At 1, 3, and 5 years, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75-0.76 for violent reoffending and 0.74-0.75 for any reoffending. The prediction model for sexual reoffending showed modest discrimination (AUC = 0.67) and good calibration. We have generated three simple and web-based risk calculators, which are freely available.

INTERPRETATION

Scalable evidence-based risk assessment tools for sexual offenders in the criminal justice system and forensic mental health could assist decision-making and treatment allocation by identifying those at higher risk, and screening out low risk persons.

The predictive performance of criminal risk assessment tools used at sentencing: Systematic review of validation studies

Although risk assessment tools have been widely used to inform sentencing decisions, there is uncertainty about the extent and quality of evidence of their predictive performance when validated in new samples. Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review of validation studies of 11 commonly used risk assessment tools for sentencing. We identified 36 studies with 597,665 participants, among which were 27 independent validation studies with 177,711 individuals. Overall, the predictive performance of the included risk assessment tools was mixed, and ranged from poor to moderate. Tool performance was typically overestimated in studies with smaller sample sizes or studies in which tool developers were co-authors. Most studies only reported area under the curve (AUC), which ranged from 0.57 to 0.75 in independent studies with more than 500 participants. The majority did not report key performance measures, such as calibration and rates of false positives and negatives. In addition, most validation studies had a high risk of bias, partly due to inappropriate analytical approach used. We conclude that the research priority is for future investigations to address the key methodological shortcomings identified in this review, and policy makers should enable this research. More sufficiently powered independent validation studies are necessary.

Towards a More Evidence-Based Risk Assessment for People in the Criminal Justice System: the Case of OxRec in the Netherlands

Risk assessment tools are widely used throughout the criminal justice system to assist in making decisions about sentencing, supervision, and treatment. In this article, we discuss several methodological and practical limitations associated with risk assessment tools currently in use. These include variable predictive performance due to the exclusion of important background predictors; high costs, including the need for regular staff training, in order to use many tools; development of tools using suboptimal methods and poor transparency in how they create risk scores; included risk factors being based on dated evidence; and ethical concerns highlighted by legal scholars and criminologists, such as embedding systemic biases and uncertainty about how these tools influence judicial decisions. We discuss the potential that specific predictors, such as living in a deprived neighbourhood, may indirectly select for individuals in racial or ethnic minority groups. To demonstrate how these limitations and ethical concerns can be addressed, we present the example of OxRec, a risk assessment tool used to predict recidivism for individuals in the criminal justice system. OxRec was developed in Sweden and has been externally validated in Sweden and the Netherlands. The advantages of OxRec include its predictive accuracy based on rigorous multivariable testing of predictors, transparent reporting of results and the final model (including how the probability score is derived), scoring simplicity (i.e. without the need for additional interview), and the reporting of a wide range of performance measures, including those of discrimination and calibration, the latter of which is rarely reported but a key metric. OxRec is intended to be used alongside professional judgement, as a support for decision-making, and its performance measures need to be interpreted in this light. The reported calibration of the tool in external samples clearly suggests no systematic overestimation of risk, including in large subgroups.

Prediction models for child and adolescent mental health: A systematic review of methodology and reporting in recent research

BACKGROUND

There has been a rapid growth in the publication of new prediction models relevant to child and adolescent mental health. However, before their implementation into clinical services, it is necessary to appraise the quality of their methods and reporting. We conducted a systematic review of new prediction models in child and adolescent mental health, and examined their development and validation.

METHOD

We searched five databases for studies developing or validating multivariable prediction models for individuals aged 18 years old or younger from 1 January 2018 to 18 February 2021. Quality of reporting was assessed using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis checklist, and quality of methodology using items based on expert guidance and the PROBAST tool.

RESULTS

We identified 100 eligible studies: 41 developing a new prediction model, 48 validating an existing model and 11 that included both development and validation. Most publications (k = 75) reported a model discrimination measure, while 26 investigations reported calibration. Of 52 new prediction models, six (12%) were for suicidal outcomes, 18 (35%) for future diagnosis, five (10%) for child maltreatment. Other outcomes included violence, crime, and functional outcomes. Eleven new models (21%) were developed for use in high-risk populations. Of development studies, around a third were sufficiently statistically powered (k = 16%, 31%), while this was lower for validation investigations (k = 12, 25%). In terms of performance, the discrimination (as measured by the C-statistic) for new models ranged from 0.57 for a tool predicting ADHD diagnosis in an external validation sample to 0.99 for a machine learning model predicting foster care permanency.

CONCLUSIONS

Although some tools have recently been developed for child and adolescent mental health for prognosis and child maltreatment, none can be currently recommended for clinical practice due to a combination of methodological limitations and poor model performance. New work needs to use ensure sufficient sample sizes, representative samples, and testing of model calibration.

Perceptions on undertaking regular asymptomatic self-testing for COVID-19 using lateral flow tests: a qualitative study of university students and staff

OBJECTIVES

Successful implementation of asymptomatic testing programmes using lateral flow tests (LFTs) depends on several factors, including feasibility, acceptability and how people act on test results. We aimed to examine experiences of university students and staff of regular asymptomatic self-testing using LFTs, and their subsequent behaviours.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A qualitative study using semistructured remote interviews and qualitative survey responses, which were analysed thematically.

PARTICIPANTS

People who were participating in weekly testing feasibility study, between October 2020 and January 2021, at the University of Oxford.

RESULTS

We interviewed 18 and surveyed 214 participants. Participants were motivated to regularly self-test as they wanted to know whether or not they were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Most reported that a negative test result did not change their behaviour, but it did provide them with reassurance to engage with permitted activities. In contrast, some participants reported making decisions about visiting other people because they felt reassured by a negative test result. Participants valued the training but some still doubted their ability to carry out the test. Participants were concerned about safety of attending test sites with lots of people and reported home testing was most convenient.

CONCLUSIONS

Clear messages highlighting the benefits of regular testing for family, friends and society in identifying asymptomatic cases are needed. This should be coupled with transparent communication about the accuracy of LFTs and how to act on either a positive or negative result. Concerns about safety, convenience of testing and ability to do tests need to be addressed to ensure successful scaling up of asymptomatic testing.

Rapid community point-of-care testing for COVID-19 (RAPTOR-C19): protocol for a platform diagnostic study

BACKGROUND

The aim of RApid community Point-of-care Testing fOR COVID-19 (RAPTOR-C19) is to assess the diagnostic accuracy of multiple current and emerging point-of-care tests (POCTs) for active and past SARS-CoV2 infection in the community setting. RAPTOR-C19 will provide the community testbed to the COVID-19 National DiagnOstic Research and Evaluation Platform (CONDOR).

METHODS

RAPTOR-C19 incorporates a series of prospective observational parallel diagnostic accuracy studies of SARS-CoV2 POCTs against laboratory and composite reference standards in patients with suspected current or past SARS-CoV2 infection attending community settings. Adults and children with suspected current SARS-CoV2 infection who are having an oropharyngeal/nasopharyngeal (OP/NP) swab for laboratory SARS-CoV2 reverse transcriptase Digital/Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (d/rRT-PCR) as part of clinical care or community-based testing will be invited to participate. Adults (≥ 16 years) with suspected past symptomatic infection will also be recruited. Asymptomatic individuals will not be eligible. At the baseline visit, all participants will be asked to submit samples for at least one candidate point-of-care test (POCT) being evaluated (index test/s) as well as an OP/NP swab for laboratory SARS-CoV2 RT-PCR performed by Public Health England (PHE) (reference standard for current infection). Adults will also be asked for a blood sample for laboratory SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing by PHE (reference standard for past infection), where feasible adults will be invited to attend a second visit at 28 days for repeat antibody testing. Additional study data (e.g. demographics, symptoms, observations, household contacts) will be captured electronically. Sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values for each POCT will be calculated with exact 95% confidence intervals when compared to the reference standard. POCTs will also be compared to composite reference standards constructed using paired antibody test results, patient reported outcomes, linked electronic health records for outcomes related to COVID-19 such as hospitalisation or death, and other test results.

DISCUSSION

High-performing POCTs for community use could be transformational. Real-time results could lead to personal and public health impacts such as reducing onward household transmission of SARS-CoV2 infection, improving surveillance of health and social care staff, contributing to accurate prevalence estimates, and understanding of SARS-CoV2 transmission dynamics in the population. In contrast, poorly performing POCTs could have negative effects, so it is necessary to undertake community-based diagnostic accuracy evaluations before rolling these out.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN, ISRCTN14226970.

Screening for Hypertension in the INpatient Environment(SHINE): a protocol for a prospective study of diagnostic accuracy among adult hospital patients

INTRODUCTION

A significant percentage of patients admitted to hospital have undiagnosed hypertension. However, present hypertension guidelines in the UK, Europe and USA do not define a blood pressure threshold at which hospital inpatients should be considered at risk of hypertension, outside of the emergency setting. The objective of this study is to identify the optimal in-hospital mean blood pressure threshold, above which patients should receive postdischarge blood pressure assessment in the community.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Screening for Hypertension in the INpatient Environment is a prospective diagnostic accuracy study. Patients admitted to hospital whose mean average daytime blood pressure after 24 hours or longer meets the study eligibility threshold for mean daytime blood pressure (≥120/70 mm Hg) and who have no prior diagnosis of, or medication for hypertension will be eligible. At 8 weeks postdischarge, recruited participants will wear an ambulatory blood pressure monitor for 24 hours. Mean daytime ambulatory blood pressure will be calculated to assess for the presence or absence of hypertension. Diagnostic performance of in-hospital blood pressure will be assessed by constructing receiver operator characteristic curves from participants' in-hospital mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure (index test) versus diagnosis of hypertension determined by mean daytime ambulatory blood pressure (reference test).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been provided by the National Health Service Health Research Authority South Central-Oxford B Research Ethics Committee (19/SC/0026). Findings will be disseminated through national and international conferences, peer-reviewed journals and social media.

Use of Decision Modelling in Economic Evaluations of Diagnostic Tests: An Appraisal and Review of Health Technology Assessments in the UK

Diagnostic tests play an important role in the clinical decision-making process by providing information that enables patients to be identified and stratified to the most appropriate treatment and management strategies. Decision analytic modelling facilitates the synthesis of evidence from multiple sources to evaluate the cost effectiveness of diagnostic tests. This study critically reviews the methods used to model the cost effectiveness of diagnostic tests in UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) reports. UK NIHR HTA reports published between 2009 and 2018 were screened to identify those reporting an economic evaluation of a diagnostic test using decision analytic modelling. Existing decision modelling checklists were identified in the literature and a modified checklist tailored to diagnostic economic evaluations was developed, piloted and used to assess the diagnostic models in HTA reports. Of 728 HTA reports published during the study period, 55 met the inclusion criteria. The majority of models performed well with a clearly defined decision problem and analytical perspective (89% of HTAs met the criterion). The model structure usually reflected the care pathway and progression of the health condition. However, there are areas requiring improvement. These are predominantly systematic identification of treatment effects (20% met), poor selection of comparators (50% met) and assumed independence of tests used in sequence (32% took correlation between sequential tests into consideration). The complexity and constraints of performing decision analysis of diagnostic tests on costs and health outcomes makes it particularly challenging and, as a result, quality issues remain. This review provides a comprehensive assessment of modelling in HTA reports, highlights problems and gives recommendations for future diagnostic modelling practice.

Differences in beliefs about mood between people with and without bipolar disorder

Psychological models of bipolar disorder (BD), such as the self-regulation model (SRM; Leventhal, Nerenz, & Steele, 1984), highlight the crucial role of beliefs about mood in relapse vulnerability. To date, no studies have directly compared these beliefs between people with and without BD. Based on the SRM, the current research examined beliefs about mood in people with and without BD and explored the impact of current affect on these beliefs. Fifty euthymic people with a diagnosis of BD and 50 controls were recruited through an online screening study, clinical services, and support organizations. Experience sampling methodology (ESM) was used to assess beliefs (according to the Brief Illness Perceptions Questionnaire; Broadbent, Petrie, Main, & Weinman, 2006) across a typical week of everyday life. Data were analysed using multilevel modelling. Forty-two people with a diagnosis of BD and 50 controls were included in the analyses. Results indicated that the BD group reported less control over mood, a shorter duration of mood, and less understanding of mood and were more likely to report the cause of depressive symptoms as something internal, compared with controls. When controlling for current affect, the BD group also reported more positive consequences, made more internal attributions for hypomanic symptoms, and reported less concern about mood, compared with controls. Findings suggest important differences in beliefs about mood between people with and without BD that are not the result of current affect. These beliefs may be particularly important in understanding underlying vulnerability to future relapse into depression and/or mania.

Limited evidence for diagnosing bacterial skin infections in older adults in primary care: systematic review

Background

Older adults with bacterial skin infections may present with atypical symptoms, making diagnosis difficult. There is limited authoritative guidance on how older adults in the community present with bacterial skin infections. To date there have been no systematic reviews assessing the diagnostic value of symptoms and signs in identifying bacterial skin infections in older adults in the community.

Methods

We searched Medline and Medline in process, Embase and Web of Science, from inception to September 2017. We included cohort and cross-sectional studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs in predicting bacterial skin infections in adults in primary care aged over 65 years. The QUADAS-2 tool was used to assess study quality.

Results

We identified two observational studies of low-moderate quality, with a total of 7991 participants, providing data to calculate the diagnostic accuracy of 5 unique symptoms in predicting bacterial skin infections. The presence of wounds [LR+: 7.93 (CI 4.81–13.1)], pressure sores [LR+: 4.85 (CI 2.18–10.8)] and skin ulcers [LR+: 6.26 (CI 5.49–7.13)] help to diagnose bacterial skin infections. The presence of urinary incontinence does not help to predict bacterial skin infections (LR + ‘s of 0.99 and 1.04; LR-‘s of 0.96 and 1.04).

Conclusions

Currently, there is insufficient evidence to inform the diagnosis of bacterial skin infections in older adults in the community; clinicians should therefore rely upon their clinical judgement and experience. Evidence from high quality primary care studies in older adults, including studies assessing symptoms traditionally associated with bacterial skin infections (e.g. erythema and warmth), is urgently needed to guide practice.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-019-1061-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Sepsis recognition tools in acute ambulatory care: associations with process of care and clinical outcomes in a service evaluation of an Emergency Multidisciplinary Unit in Oxfordshire

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of currently available sepsis recognition tools in patients referred to a community-based acute ambulatory care unit.

DESIGN

Service evaluation of consecutive patients over a 4-month period.

SETTING

Community-based acute ambulatory care unit.

DATA COLLECTION AND OUTCOME MEASURES

Observations, blood results and outcome data were analysed from patients with a suspected infection. Clinical features at first assessment were used to populate sepsis recognition tools including: systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) criteria. Scores were assessed against the clinical need for escalated care (use of intravenous antibiotics, fluids, ongoing ambulatory care or hospital treatment) and poor clinical outcome (all-cause mortality and readmission at 30 days after index assessment).

RESULTS

Of 533 patients (median age 81 years), 316 had suspected infection with 120 patients requiring care escalated beyond simple community care. SIRS had the highest positive predictive value (50.9%, 95% CI 41.6% to 60.3%) and negative predictive value (68.9%, 95% CI 62.6% to 75.3%) for the need for escalated care. Both NEWS and SIRS were better at predicting the need for escalated care than qSOFA and NICE criteria in patients with suspected infection (all P<0.001). While new-onset confusion predicted the need for escalated care for infection in patients ≥85 years old (n=114), 23.7% of patients ≥85 years had new-onset confusion without evidence for infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute ambulatory care clinicians should use caution in applying the new NICE endorsed criteria for determining the need for intravenous therapy and hospital-based location of care. NICE criteria have poorer performance when compared against NEWS and SIRS and new-onset confusion was prevalent in patients aged ≥85 years without infection.

Assessing Violence in Psychosis – A Clinical Prediction Rule

Background

Current approaches to stratify patients with psychosis into risk groups are limited by inconsistency, variable accuracy, and unscalability.

Methods

This paper will present an overview of current approaches based on a systematic review. It will also present a novel scalable approach based on a total national cohort of 75 158 Swedish individuals aged 15–65 with a diagnosis of severe mental illness (schizophrenia, schizophrenic-spectrum, bipolar disorder, and other psychotic illnesses). We developed predictive models for violent offending through linkage of population-based registers and tested them in external validation. We measured discrimination and calibration for prediction of violent offending at 1 year using specified risk cut-offs.

Findings

: A 16-item model was developed from pre-specified routinely collected criminal history, socio-demographic and clinical risk factors. In external validation, the model showed good measures of discrimination (c-index 0.89) and calibration. For risk of violent offending at 1 year, using a 5% cut off, sensitivity was 64% and specificity was 94%. Positive and negative predictive values were 11% and 99%, respectively. The model was used to generate a simple web-based risk calculator (OxMIV).

Interpretation

We have developed a prediction score in a national cohort of all patients with psychosis that can be used as an adjunct to decision-making in clinical practice by identifying those who are at low risk of future violent offending and higher risk individuals who may benefit from additional risk management. Further evaluation in other populations and countries is needed.

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.].

Increasing Navigation Speed at Endoluminal CT Colonography Reduces Colonic Visualization and Polyp Identification

As navigation speed increases, gaze of the reader becomes more central and polyp identification rates fall.

Purpose

To investigate the effect of increasing navigation speed on the visual search and decision making during polyp identification for computed tomography (CT) colonography

Materials and Methods

Institutional review board permission was obtained to use deidentified CT colonography data for this prospective reader study. After obtaining informed consent from the readers, 12 CT colonography fly-through examinations that depicted eight polyps were presented at four different fixed navigation speeds to 23 radiologists. Speeds ranged from 1 cm/sec to 4.5 cm/sec. Gaze position was tracked by using an infrared eye tracker, and readers indicated that they saw a polyp by clicking a mouse. Patterns of searching and decision making by speed were investigated graphically and by multilevel modeling.

Results

Readers identified polyps correctly in 56 of 77 (72.7%) of viewings at the slowest speed but in only 137 of 225 (60.9%) of viewings at the fastest speed (P = .004). They also identified fewer false-positive features at faster speeds (42 of 115; 36.5%) of videos at slowest speed, 89 of 345 (25.8%) at fastest, P = .02). Gaze location was highly concentrated toward the central quarter of the screen area at faster speeds (mean gaze points at slowest speed vs fastest speed, 86% vs 97%, respectively).

Conclusion

Faster navigation speed at endoluminal CT colonography led to progressive restriction of visual search patterns. Greater speed also reduced both true-positive and false-positive colorectal polyp identification.

^© RSNA, 2017

Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Prevalence and risk factors for post-investigation colorectal cancer ("interval cancer") after computed tomographic colonography: protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common and important disease. There are different tests for diagnosis, one of which is computed tomographic colonography (CTC). No test is perfect, and patients with normal CTC may subsequently develop CRC (either because it was overlooked originally, or because it has developed in the interim). This is termed post-investigation colorectal cancer (PICRC) or "interval cancer". How frequently this occurs after CTC is not known. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to use the primary literature to estimate the PICRC rate after CTC, and explore associated factors.

METHODS

Primary studies reporting post-investigation colorectal cancer (PICRC) rates after CTC will be identified from PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials databases. Peer-reviewed studies published after 1994 (the year CTC was introduced) will be included and the rate of PICRC within 36 months of CTC recorded. Data will be extracted from selected studies for a random effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity, risk of bias and publication bias will be assessed, and exploratory analysis will examine factors associated with higher PICRC rates in the literature.

CONCLUSION

PICRC rates are the ultimate benchmark of diagnostic quality for colonic investigations. This systematic review and meta-analysis will identify and synthesise evidence to determine PICRC rates after CTC and explore factors that may contribute to higher rates.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (registration number CRD42016042437 ).

Fluid responsiveness prediction using Vigileo FloTrac measured cardiac output changes during passive leg raise test

Background

Passive leg raising (PLR) is a so called self-volume challenge used to test for fluid responsiveness. Changes in cardiac output (CO) or stroke volume (SV) measured during PLR are used to predict the need for subsequent fluid loading. This requires a device that can measure CO changes rapidly. The Vigileo™ monitor, using third-generation software, allows continuous CO monitoring. The aim of this study was to compare changes in CO (measured with the Vigileo device) during a PLR manoeuvre to calculate the accuracy for predicting fluid responsiveness.

Methods

This is a prospective study in a 20-bedded mixed general critical care unit in a large non-university regional referral hospital. Fluid responders were defined as having an increase in CO of greater than 15 % following a fluid challenge. Patients meeting the criteria for circulatory shock with a Vigileo™ monitor (Vigileo™; FloTrac; Edwards™; Lifesciences, Irvine, CA, USA) already in situ, and assessed as requiring volume expansion by the clinical team based on clinical criteria, were included. All patients underwent a PLR manoeuvre followed by a fluid challenge.

Results

Data was collected and analysed on stroke volume variation (SVV) at baseline and CO and SVV changes during the PLR manoeuvre and following a subsequent fluid challenge in 33 patients. The majority had septic shock. Patient characteristics, baseline haemodynamic variables and baseline vasoactive infusion requirements were similar between fluid responders (10 patients) and non-responders (23 patients). Peak increase in CO occurred within 120 s during the PLR in all cases. Using an optimal cut point of 9 % increase in CO during the PLR produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85 (95 % CI 0.63 to 1.00) with a sensitivity of 80 % (95 % CI 44 to 96 %) and a specificity of 91 % (95 % CI 70 to 98 %).

Conclusions

CO changes measured by the Vigileo™ monitor using third-generation software during a PLR test predict fluid responsiveness in mixed medical and surgical patients with vasopressor-dependent circulatory shock.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40560-016-0188-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Optimal strategies for monitoring lipid levels in patients at risk or with cardiovascular disease: a systematic review with statistical and cost-effectiveness modelling

BACKGROUND

Various lipid measurements in monitoring/screening programmes can be used, alone or in cardiovascular risk scores, to guide treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Because some changes in lipids are due to variability rather than true change, the value of lipid-monitoring strategies needs evaluation.

OBJECTIVE

To determine clinical value and cost-effectiveness of different monitoring intervals and different lipid measures for primary and secondary prevention of CVD.

DATA SOURCES

We searched databases and clinical trials registers from 2007 (including the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Clinical Trials Register, the Current Controlled Trials register, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) to update and extend previous systematic reviews. Patient-level data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and St Luke's Hospital, Japan, were used in statistical modelling. Utilities and health-care costs were drawn from the literature.

METHODS

In two meta-analyses, we used prospective studies to examine associations of lipids with CVD and mortality, and randomised controlled trials to estimate lipid-lowering effects of atorvastatin doses. Patient-level data were used to estimate progression and variability of lipid measurements over time, and hence to model lipid-monitoring strategies. Results are expressed as rates of true-/false-positive and true-/false-negative tests for high lipid or high CVD risk. We estimated incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year.

RESULTS

A total of 115 publications reported strength of association between different lipid measures and CVD events in 138 data sets. The summary adjusted hazard ratio per standard deviation of total cholesterol (TC) to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio was 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.35) for CVD in a primary prevention population but heterogeneity was high (I(2) = 98%); similar results were observed for non-HDL cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and other ratio measures. Associations were smaller for other single lipid measures. Across 10 trials, low-dose atorvastatin (10 and 20 mg) effects ranged from a TC reduction of 0.92 mmol/l to 2.07 mmol/l, and low-density lipoprotein reduction of between 0.88 mmol/l and 1.86 mmol/l. Effects of 40 mg and 80 mg were reported by one trial each. For primary prevention, over a 3-year period, we estimate annual monitoring would unnecessarily treat 9 per 1000 more men (28 vs. 19 per 1000) and 5 per 1000 more women (17 vs. 12 per 1000) than monitoring every 3 years. However, annual monitoring would also undertreat 9 per 1000 fewer men (7 vs. 16 per 1000) and 4 per 1000 fewer women (7 vs. 11 per 1000) than monitoring at 3-year intervals. For secondary prevention, over a 3-year period, annual monitoring would increase unnecessary treatment changes by 66 per 1000 men and 31 per 1000 women, and decrease undertreatment by 29 per 1000 men and 28 per 1000 men, compared with monitoring every 3 years. In cost-effectiveness, strategies with increased screening/monitoring dominate. Exploratory analyses found that any unknown harms of statins would need utility decrements as large as 0.08 (men) to 0.11 (women) per statin user to reverse this finding in primary prevention.

LIMITATION

Heterogeneity in meta-analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

While acknowledging known and potential unknown harms of statins, we find that more frequent monitoring strategies are cost-effective compared with others. Regular lipid monitoring in those with and without CVD is likely to be beneficial to patients and to the health service. Future research should include trials of the benefits and harms of atorvastatin 40 and 80 mg, large-scale surveillance of statin safety, and investigation of the effect of monitoring on medication adherence.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003727.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

First metatarsophalangeal joint arthrodesis versus proximal phalanx hemiarthroplasty for hallux rigidus: feasibility study for a randomised controlled trial

Background

Osteoarthritis of the first metatarsophalangeal joint (hallux rigidus) leads to pain and poor function and mobility. Arthrodesis is the gold standard treatment for end-stage disease. Total joint arthroplasties have been attempted, but early loosening has been attributed to dorsally directed shear forces on the metatarsal component. Metallic proximal phalangeal hemiarthroplasty theoretically avoids this. Whilst early results are promising, no comparative trials exist comparing this to arthrodesis.

Methods/Design

The primary objectives are to determine the range of outcome scores between the two treatment arms (to inform a power calculation). Outcome measures will include the MOXFQ, AOFAS-Hallux and EuroQol EQ-5D-5 L. Secondary objectives are to determine the accrual rate, dropout rate and trial acceptability to both patients and surgeons. These data will allow the development of a larger trial with longer follow-up.

This is a prospective randomised controlled single-centre study comparing proximal phalanx hemiarthroplasty (AnaToemic, Arthrex Ltd., Sheffield, UK) with arthrodesis (15 patients in each arm). Randomisation will be performed using a 1:1 allocation ratio in blocks of six.

Patients meeting the eligibility criteria will be recruited from three foot and ankle consultant surgeon’s clinics (East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust). If agreeable, informed consent will be obtained before patients are randomised.

The outcome measure scores will be completed pre-operatively and repeated at 6 weeks, 3 months and 12 months. A radiological review will be performed at 6 weeks and 12 months to determine rates of loosening (hemiarthroplasty) and union (arthrodesis). Data on length of stay, return to work, complications and re-operation rates will also be collected.

The analysis will compare the change in outcome scores between treatment groups at all follow-up time points. Scores will be compared using a Student t-test, adjusting for scores at baseline.

This study will be conducted in accordance with the current revision of the Declaration of Helsinki (1996) and the ICH-GCP Guideline (International Conference on Harmonisation, Good Clinical Practice, E6(R1), 1996). This study has been approved by the sponsor, the Trust Research & Development office. Ethical approval has been received from the National Research Ethics Service (North East: 12/NE/0385 for protocol version 5.3 dated 3 June 2013).

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN88273654

How much might cardiovascular disease risk be reduced by intensive therapy in people with screen-detected diabetes?

AIMS

To assess the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk of people with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes and to estimate the risk reduction achievable through early intensive pharmacological intervention.

METHODS

In ADDITION-Cambridge, diabetic patients were identified among people aged 40-69 years through a stepwise screening procedure including a risk score, random and fasting capillary blood glucose, HbA(1c) and oral glucose tolerance test. In those without prior macrovascular disease, 10-year CVD risk was computed using UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) and Framingham engines. The absolute risk reduction achievable and its plausible range were predicted using relative risk reductions for individual therapies from published trials and sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 867 individuals with undiagnosed diabetes, 19% had pre-existing CVD, 97% were overweight or obese, 86% had hypertension, 75% had dyslipidaemia, 20% had microalbuminuria and 18% were smokers. Of those with hypertension, 35% were not prescribed drugs and 42% were suboptimally treated. Of participants with dyslipidaemia, 68% were not prescribed medications and 22% were poorly controlled. Median 10-year CVD risk was 34.0%[interquartile range (IQR) 26.2-44.6] in men and 21.5% (IQR 15.7-28.7) in women using the UKPDS engine; 38.6% (IQR 27.8-53.0) in men and 24.6% (IQR 17.2-32.9) in women using Framingham equations. In the most conservative scenario (no additive effect of therapies), the absolute risk reduction achievable through multifactorial therapy ranged from 4.9 to 9.5% (UKPDS) and from 5.4 to 10.5% (Framingham). The corresponding ranges of numbers needed to treat were 11-20 and 10-19.

CONCLUSIONS

People with screen-detected diabetes have an adverse cardiovascular risk profile, which is potentially modifiable through application of existing treatment recommendations.

The GRAIDS Trial: a cluster randomised controlled trial of computer decision support for the management of familial cancer risk in primary care

The objective was to evaluate the effect of an assessment strategy using the computer decision support system (the GRAIDS software), on the management of familial cancer risk in British general practice in comparison with best current practice. The design included cluster randomised controlled trial, and involved forty-five general practice teams in East Anglia, UK. Randomised to GRAIDS (Genetic Risk Assessment on the Internet with Decision Support) support (intervention n=23) or comparison (n=22). Training in the new assessment strategy and access to the GRAIDS software (GRAIDS arm) was conducted, compared with an educational session and guidelines about managing familial breast and colorectal cancer risk (comparison) were mailed. Outcomes were measured at practice, practitioner and patient levels. The primary outcome measure, at practice level, was the proportion of referrals made to the Regional Genetics Clinic for familial breast or colorectal cancer that were consistent with referral guidelines. Other measures included practitioner confidence in managing familial cancer (GRAIDS arm only) and, in patients: cancer worry, risk perception and knowledge about familial cancer. There were more referrals to the Regional Genetics Clinic from GRAIDS than comparison practices (mean 6.2 and 3.2 referrals per 10 000 registered patients per year; mean difference 3.0 referrals; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2–4.8; P=0.001); referrals from GRAIDS practices were more likely to be consistent with referral guidelines (odds ratio (OR)=5.2; 95% CI 1.7–15.8, P=0.006). Patients referred from GRAIDS practices had lower cancer worry scores at the point of referral (mean difference −1.44 95% CI −2.64 to −0.23, P=0.02). There were no differences in patient knowledge about familial cancer. The intervention increased GPs' confidence in managing familial cancer. Compared with education and mailed guidelines, assessment including computer decision support increased the number and quality of referrals to the Regional Genetics Clinic for familial cancer risk, improved practitioner confidence and had no adverse psychological effects in patients. Trials are registered under N0181144343 in the UK National Research Register.

Novel markers of cell kinetics to evaluate progression from cirrhosis to hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

We investigated cell cycle kinetics of nodular lesions in cirrhosis to differentiate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from its precursor lesions.

METHODS

Twelve small HCC, 10 regenerative (RN), six large regenerative (LRN), and five dysplastic nodules (DN), identified in explant cirrhotic livers of five consecutive patients transplanted at Royal Free Hospital in 2002. Immunoperoxidase for MCM2, geminin and Ki67 was performed and the percentage of positive cells counted.

RESULTS

The proportion of cells expressing MCM2 was more than those expressing Ki67, which in turn was more than those expressing geminin (overall median=16%, 2% and 0.5%, respectively, P<0.001). There was a statistically significant trend of increasing Ki67 expression (P=0.006), from RN to HCC; this trend was not statistically significant for geminin (P=0.18) or MCM2 (P=0.51). The median percentage of cells expressing Ki67 was 1% in RN, 0.5% in LRN, 2.2% in DN and 5.4% in HCC. The combination of these markers identified four different cell kinetics patterns: 'resting' (G0 cells: MCM2 -ve, Ki67 -ve, geminin -ve); 'licensed' (MCM2 +ve, Ki67 -ve, geminin -ve); 'slowly growing' (G1 phase arrest, MCM2 +ve, Ki67 +ve, low (0.4%) geminin) and expanding (MCM2 +ve, Ki67 +ve, geminin +ve) nodules.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of MCM2, geminin and Ki67 could represent a valuable tool in the understanding of HCC progression in cirrhosis.

DNA replication licensing and cell cycle kinetics of normal and neoplastic breast

Mcm2–7 (MCM) proteins are part of the origin licensing machinery that regulates initiation of DNA replication. Geminin is a licensing repressor and prevents reinitiation of DNA replication during S–G2–M phase by blocking reloading of Mcm2–7 at replication origins. Here, we have analysed these replication licensing factors (RLFs) to determine whether the pathway becomes deregulated during mammary carcinogenesis, and have assessed their potential value as prognostic markers. Protein expression profiles were generated for Ki67, Mcm2, geminin, HER-2, ER and PR in a series of reduction mammoplasty (n=18) and breast cancer specimens (n=120), and compared to clinicopathological parameters. A large proportion of epithelial cells of the terminal duct lobular unit reside in a primed ‘replication licensed’ but not proliferating state. This state is characterised by Mcm2 expression and absence of Ki67 and the S/G2/M marker geminin. In breast cancers, increasing tumour grade is associated with increased Ki67, Mcm2 and geminin expression. The Mcm2/Ki67 ratio decreases through the grades, indicating a shift from a predominantly licensed state to an actively proliferating state. This shift is associated with an increase in the geminin/Ki67 ratio, signifying a shortening of G1 phase in breast cancer cells. Ki67, Mcm2 and the Mcm2/Ki67 ratio are statistically significantly associated with the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI), but geminin and the geminin/Ki67 ratio are not. Ki67, Mcm2 and Mcm2/Ki67 are highly correlated with one another, with Mcm2 being the single most important predictor of NPI score (P<0.001). However, only 12% of variation in NPI is explained by Mcm2, as the labelling index for this marker is approaching 100% for many of the high-grade tumours. The origin licensing phenotypes of normal breast and breast cancers therefore relate to their cellular differentiation status, and high-level MCM expression in more poorly differentiated tumours severely constrains their use as prognostic markers in breast cancer.

Repression of DNA replication licensing in quiescence is independent of geminin and may define the cell cycle state of progenitor cells

The DNA replication (or origin) licensing machinery ensures precise duplication of the genome and contributes to the regulation of proliferative capacity in metazoa. Using an in vitro fibroblast model system coupled to a cell-free DNA replication assay, we have studied regulation of the origin licensing pathway during exit from and re-entry into the mitotic cell cycle. We show that in the quiescent state (G0) loss of proliferative capacity is achieved in part through down-regulation of the replication licensing factors Cdc6 and Mcm2-7. The origin licensing repressor geminin is absent in quiescent fibroblasts, suggesting that this powerful inhibitor of the licensing machinery is not required to suppress proliferative capacity in G0. Geminin expression is induced at a late stage in the G0-S transition post pre-RC assembly. Ectopic geminin can block re-acquisition of DNA replication competence during re-entry into the cell cycle, indicating that geminin levels must be tightly down-regulated for escape from G0. Analysis of geminin levels in thyroid shows that geminin expression is suppressed in anatomical compartments/tissues harbouring quiescent cells, confirming our in vitro data. Spatio-temporal control of geminin expression may therefore be of particular relevance for multi-potential stem cells which cycle infrequently. In support of this hypothesis, we have identified a unique population of cells in the putative stem cell niche of intestinal epithelium that are unlicensed and lack geminin expression, a prerequisite for successful re-entry into cycle. Our data argue that the prolonged cell cycle times observed for intestinal stem cells could be due to exit of progenitor cells from cycle into an unlicensed "out-of-cycle" state, a powerful mechanism by which rapidly proliferating tissues may resist genotoxic insult.

Mcm2, Geminin, and KI67 define proliferative state and are prognostic markers in renal cell carcinoma

PURPOSE

The origin licensing factors minichromosome maintenance 2 (Mcm2) and Geminin have recently been identified as critical regulators of growth and differentiation. Here we have investigated the regulation of these licensing factors together with Ki67 to further elucidate the cell cycle kinetics of renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Furthermore, we have examined the role of Ki67, Mcm2, and Geminin in disease-free survival after nephrectomy in patients with localized RCC.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Tissue sections from 176 radical nephrectomy specimens were immunohistochemically stained with Mcm2, Geminin, and Ki67 antibodies. Labeling indices (LI) for these markers were compared with clinicopathologic parameters (median follow-up 44 months).

RESULTS

In RCC, Mcm2 is expressed at much higher levels than Ki-67 and Geminin, respectively [medians 41.6%, 7.3%, and 3.5% (P < 0.001)] and was most closely linked to tumor grade (P < 0.001). For each marker, Kaplan-Meier survival curves provided strong evidence that increased expression is associated with reduced disease-free survival time (P < 0.001). Additionally, an Mcm2-Ki67 LI identified a unique licensed but nonproliferating population of tumor cells that increased significantly with tumor grade (P = 0.004) and was also of prognostic value (P = 0.01). On multivariate analysis, grade, vascular invasion, capsular invasion, Ki67 LI >12%, and age were found to be independent prognostic markers.

CONCLUSIONS

Although Ki67 is identified as an independent prognostic marker, semiquantitative assessment is difficult due to the very low proliferative fraction identified by this marker. In contrast, Mcm2 identifies an increased growth fraction that is closely linked to grade, provides prognostic information, and is amenable to semiquantitative analysis in routine pathologic assessment.

Impact on patients of expanded, general practice based, student teaching: observational and qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

To compare patients' enablement and satisfaction after teaching and non-teaching consultations. To explore patients' views about the possible impact that increased community based teaching of student doctors in their practice may have on the delivery of service and their attitudes towards direct involvement with students.

DESIGN

Observational study using validated survey instruments (patient enablement index--PEI, and consultation satisfaction questionnaire--CSQ) administered after teaching consultations and non-teaching consultations. Ten focus groups (two from each practice), comprising five with patients participating in prearranged teaching sessions and five with patients not participating in these.

SETTING

Five general practices in west Suffolk and southern Norfolk, England, that teach student doctors on the Cambridge graduate medical course.

PARTICIPANTS

240 patients attending teaching consultations (response rate 82%, 196 patients) and 409 patients attending non-teaching consultations (response rate 72%, 294 patients) received survey instruments. Ten focus groups with a total of 34 patients participating in prearranged teaching sessions and 20 patients not participating in these.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Scores on the patient enablement index and consultation satisfaction questionnaire, analysed at the level of all patients, allowing for age, sex, general practitioner, and practice, and at the level of the individual general practitioner teacher. Qualitative analysis of focus group data.

RESULTS

Patients' enablement or satisfaction was not reduced after teaching consultations compared with non-teaching consultations (mean difference in scores on the patient enablement index and consultation satisfaction questionnaire with adjustment for confounders 2.24% and 1.70%, respectively). This held true for analysis by all patients and by general practitioner teacher. Qualitative data showed that patients generally supported the teaching of student doctors in their practice. However, this support was conditional on receiving sufficient information about reasons for doctors' absence, the characteristics of students, and the nature of teaching planned. Many patients viewed their general practice as different from hospital and expected greater control over students' presence during their consultations.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients' enablement and satisfaction are not impaired by students' participation in consultations. Patients generally support the teaching of student doctors in their general practice but expect to be provided with sufficient information and to have a choice about participation, so they can give informed consent. Recognising this when organising general practice based teaching is important.

DNA replication licensing in somatic and germ cells

The DNA replication (or origin) licensing system ensures precise duplication of the genome in each cell cycle and is a powerful regulator of cell proliferation in metazoa. Studies in yeast, Drosophila melanogaster and Xenopus laevis have characterised the molecular machinery that constitutes the licensing system, but it remains to be determined how this important evolutionary conserved pathway is regulated in Homo sapiens. We have investigated regulation of the origin licensing factors Cdc6, Cdt1, Mcm2 and Geminin in human somatic and germ cells. Cdc6 and Cdt1 play an essential role in DNA replication initiation by loading the Mcm2-7 complex, which is required for unwinding the DNA helix, onto chromosomal origins. Geminin is a repressor of origin licensing that blocks Mcm2-7 loading onto origins. Our studies demonstrate that Cdc6, Cdt1 and Mcm2 play a central role in coordinating growth during the proliferation-differentiation switch in somatic self-renewing systems and that Cdc6 expression is rate-limiting for acquisition of replication competence in primary oocytes. In striking contrast, we show that proliferation control during male gametogenesis is not linked to Cdc6 or Mcm2, but appears to be coordinated by the negative regulator Geminin with Cdt1 becoming rate-limiting in late prophase. Our data demonstrate a striking sexual dimorphism in the mechanisms repressing origin licensing and preventing untimely DNA synthesis during meiosis I, implicating a pivotal role for Geminin in maintaining integrity of the male germline genome.