The Impact of Including Costs and Outcomes of Dementia in a Health Economic Model to Evaluate Lifestyle Interventions to Prevent Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease

Cost-effectiveness analysis of two interventions to promote physical activity in a multiethnic population at high risk of diabetes: an economic evaluation of the 48-month PROPELS randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Physical activity (PA) is protective against type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, data on pragmatic long-term interventions to reduce the risk of developing T2D via increased PA are lacking. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of a pragmatic PA intervention in a multiethnic population at high risk of T2D.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We adapted the School for Public Health Research diabetes prevention model, using the PROPELS trial data and analyses of the NAVIGATOR trial. Lifetime costs, lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each intervention (Walking Away (WA) and Walking Away Plus (WA+)) versus usual care and compared with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's willingness-to-pay of £20 000-£30 000 per QALY gained. We conducted scenario analyses on the outcomes of the PROPELS trial data and a threshold analysis to determine the change in step count that would be needed for the interventions to be cost-effective.

RESULTS

Estimated lifetime costs for usual care, WA, and WA+ were £22 598, £23 018, and £22 945, respectively. Estimated QALYs were 9.323, 9.312, and 9.330, respectively. WA+ was estimated to be more effective and cheaper than WA. WA+ had an ICER of £49 273 per QALY gained versus usual care. In none of our scenario analyses did either WA or WA+ have an ICER below £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis suggested that a PA intervention costing the same as WA+ would have an ICER below £20 000/QALY if it were to achieve an increase in step count of 500 steps per day which was 100% maintained at 4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that neither WA nor WA+ was cost-effective at a limit of £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis showed that interventions to increase step count can be cost-effective at this limit if they achieve greater long-term maintenance of effect.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN registration: ISRCTN83465245: The PRomotion Of Physical activity through structuredEducation with differing Levels of ongoing Support for those with pre-diabetes (PROPELS)https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN83465245.

Gene Therapy Versus Common Care for Eligible Individuals With Sickle Cell Disease in the United States : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Sickle cell disease (SCD) and its complications contribute to high rates of morbidity and early mortality and high cost in the United States and African heritage community.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of gene therapy for SCD and its value-based prices (VBPs).

DESIGN

Comparative modeling analysis across 2 independently developed simulation models (University of Washington Model for Economic Analysis of Sickle Cell Cure [UW-MEASURE] and Fred Hutchinson Institute Sickle Cell Disease Outcomes Research and Economics Model [FH-HISCORE]) using the same databases.

DATA SOURCES

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services claims data, 2008 to 2016; published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

Persons eligible for gene therapy.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

U.S. health care sector and societal.

INTERVENTION

Gene therapy versus common care.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), equity-informed VBPs, and price acceptability curves.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

At an assumed $2 million price for gene therapy, UW-MEASURE and FH-HISCORE estimated ICERs of $193 000 per QALY and $427 000 per QALY, respectively, under the health care sector perspective. Corresponding estimates from the societal perspective were $126 000 per QALY and $281 000 per QALY. The difference in results between models stemmed primarily from considering a slightly different target population and incorporating the quality-of-life (QOL) effects of splenic sequestration, priapism, and acute chest syndrome in the UW model. From a societal perspective, acceptable (>90% confidence) VBPs ranged from $1 million to $2.5 million depending on the use of alternative effective metrics or equity-informed threshold values.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Results were sensitive to the costs of myeloablative conditioning before gene therapy, effect on caregiver QOL, and effect of gene therapy on long-term survival.

LIMITATION

The short-term effects of gene therapy on vaso-occlusive events were extrapolated from 1 study.

CONCLUSION

Gene therapy for SCD below a $2 million price tag is likely to be cost-effective when applying a societal perspective at an equity-informed threshold for cost-effectiveness analysis.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

The health, cost and equity impacts of restrictions on the advertisement of high fat, salt and sugar products across the transport for London network: a health economic modelling study

BACKGROUND

Policies aimed at restricting the marketing of high fat, salt and sugar products have been proposed as one way of improving population diet and reducing obesity. In 2019, Transport for London implemented advertising restrictions on high fat, salt and sugar products. A controlled interrupted time-series analysis comparing London with a north of England control, suggested that the advertising restrictions had resulted in a reduction in household energy purchases. The aim of the study presented here was to estimate the health benefits, cost savings and equity impacts of the Transport for London policy using a health economic modelling approach, from an English National Health Service and personal social services perspective.

METHODS

A diabetes prevention microsimulation model was modified to incorporate the London population and Transport for London advertising intervention. Conversion of calorie to body mass index reduction was mediated through an approximation of a mathematical model estimating weight loss. Outcomes gathered included incremental obesity, long-term diabetes and cardiovascular disease events, quality-adjusted life years, healthcare costs saved and net monetary benefit. Slope index of inequality was calculated for proportion of people with obesity across socioeconomic groups to assess equity impacts.

RESULTS

The results show that the Transport for London policy was estimated to have resulted in 94,867 (4.8%) fewer individuals with obesity, and to reduce incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease by 2,857 and 1,915 cases respectively within three years post intervention. The policy would produce an estimated 16,394 additional quality-adjusted life-years and save £218 m in NHS and social care costs over the lifetime of the current population. Greater benefits (e.g. a 37% higher gain in quality-adjusted life-years) were expected to accrue to individuals from the most socioeconomically deprived groups compared to the least deprived.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis suggests that there are considerable potential health and economic gains from restricting the advertisement of high fat, salt and sugar products. The population health and economic impacts of the Transport for London advertising restrictions are likely to have reduced health inequalities in London.

Economic Burden of Dementia Caused by Cardiovascular Disease in Australia

Background: The established link between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and dementia may provide new insights into dementia prevention. Objective: It aims to quantify the burden of dementia attributable to people with CVD. Methods: A Markov microsimulation model was developed to simulate the lifetime cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) related to people with and without CVD in Australia. A de-novo systematic review was undertaken to identify all evidence around the association between CVD [i.e., stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), atrial fibrillation (AF), and heart failure (HF)] and the risk of developing dementia. Incremental costs and QALY losses were estimated for people by type of CVD compared to the general Australian population without CVD. Results: Of the comprehensive literature search, 19 observational studies were included in the qualitative synthesis. Patients who had CVD incurred both higher healthcare costs over their lifetime (ranging from $73,131 for patients with AF to $127,396 for patients with HF) and fewer QALYs gains (from –1.099 for patients with MI to –5.163 for patients with stroke), compared to people who did not have CVD. The total incremental economic burden of dementia from patients aged 65 years and over with CVD was $6.45 billion (stroke), $11.89 billion (AF), $17.57 billion (MI), or $7.95 billion (HF) over their remaining life expectancy. Conclusion: The results highlighted the importance of CVD prevention to reduce the CVD burden and decrease the prevalence of dementia. Interventions that target patients with dementia risk factors like CVD may prove to be effective and cost-effective strategies.