A new nomogram for the prediction of bone metastasis in patients with prostate cancer

Development and Validation of a Clinic Machine Learning Classifier for the Prediction of Risk Stratifications of Prostate Cancer Bone Metastasis Progression to Castration Resistance

Objective

To explore the predictive factors and predictive model construction for the progression of prostate cancer bone metastasis to castration resistance.

Methods

Clinical data of 286 patients diagnosed with prostate cancer with bone metastasis, initially treated with endocrine therapy, and progressing to metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) were collected. By comparing the differences in various factors between different groups with fast and slow occurrence of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and COX multivariate risk proportional regression model were used to compare the differences in the time to progression to CRPC in different groups. The COX multivariate risk proportional regression model was used to evaluate the impact of candidate factors on the time to progression to CRPC and establish a predictive model. The accuracy of the model was then tested using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The median time for 286 mCRPC patients to progress to CRPC was 17 (9.5-28.0) months. Multivariate analysis showed that the lowest value of PSA (PSA nadir), the time when PSA dropped to its lowest value (timePSA), and the number of BM, and LDH were independent risk factors for rapid progression to CRPC. Based on the four independent risk factors mentioned above, a prediction model was established, with the optimal prediction model being a random forest with area under curve (AUC) of 0.946[95% CI: 0.901-0.991] and 0.927[95% CI: 0.864-0.990] in the training and validation cohort, respectively.

Conclusion

After endocrine therapy, the PSA nadir, timePSA, the number of BM, and LDH are the main risk factors for rapid progression to mCRPC in patients with prostate cancer bone metastases. Establishing a CRPC prediction model is helpful for early clinical intervention decision-making.

Three-dimensional amide proton transfer-weighted and intravoxel incoherent motion imaging for predicting bone metastasis in patients with prostate cancer: A pilot study

PURPOSE

To explore the value of 3-dimensional amide proton transfer-weighted (APTw) and intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) imaging in predicting bone metastasis (BM) of prostate cancer (PCa) in addition to routine diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI).

METHODS

The clinical and imaging data of 39 PCa patients who were pathologically confirmed in our hospital from March 2019 to February 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, and they were divided into BM-negative (27 patients) and BM-positive (12 patients) groups. MR examination included APTw, DWI and IVIM imaging. The IVIM data was fitted by single-exponential IVIM model (IVIM_mono) and double-exponential IVIM model (IVIM_bi), respectively. The APTw, ADC, IVIM_mono (D_mono, D*_mono, and f_mono), and IVIM_bi (D_bi, D*_bi, and f_bi) parameters were independently measured by two radiologists. The synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was conducted to balance the minority group. Mann-Whitney U test or Student's t-test was used to compare above values between the BM-negative and BM-positive groups. The diagnostic performance was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of each parameter and their combination. The Delong test was used for ROC curve comparison.The relationship between APTw and IVIM was explored through Spearman's rank correlation analysis.

RESULTS

The APTw and D*_mono values were higher, and the ADC, f_mono, and f_bi values were lower in the BM-positive group than in the BM-negative group (all P < 0.05). Among the individual parameters, the AUC of f_mono was the highest (AUC = 0.865), and AUC (f_mono) was significantly higher than AUC (f_bi), AUC (D*_mono), and AUC (ADC) (all P < 0.05). The AUC (IVIM_mono) was higher than the AUC (IVIM_bi) (P = 0.0068). The combination of APTw and IVIM_mono further improved diagnostic capability, and the AUC of APTw+IVIM_mono was significantly higher than those of APTw and DWI (all P < 0.05). No correlation was found between IVIM-derived parameters and APTw value.

CONCLUSION

Both 3D APTw and IVIM imaging could predict BM of PCa. IVIM showed better performance than APTw and DWI, and the single-exponential IVIM model was superior to the double-exponential IVIM model. The combination of APTw and IVIM could further improve diagnostic performance.

Construction and validation of web-based nomograms for detecting and prognosticating in prostate adenocarcinoma with bone metastasis

Bone metastasis (BM) is one of the most common sites of metastasis in prostate adenocarcinoma (PA). PA with BM can significantly diminish patients' quality of life and result in a poor prognosis. The objective of this study was to establish two web-based nomograms to estimate the risk and prognosis of BM in PA patients. From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, data on 308,332 patients diagnosed with PA were retrieved retrospectively. Logistic and Cox regression, respectively, were used to determine independent risk and prognostic factors. Then, We constructed two web-based nomograms and the results were validated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA) , and the Kaplan-Meier analyses. The independent risk factors for BM in PA patients included race, PSA, ISUP, T stage, N stage, brain, liver, lung metastasis, surgery, radiation and chemotherapy. The independent prognostic predictors for overall survival (OS) were age, marital status, PSA, ISUP and liver metastasis. Both nomograms could effectively predict risk and prognosis of BM in PA patients according to the results of ROC curves, calibration, and DCA in the training and validation sets. And the Kaplan-Meier analysis illustrated that the prognostic nomogram could significantly distinguish the population with different survival risks. We successfully constructed the two web-based nomograms for predicting the incidence of BM and the prognosis of PA patients with BM, which may assist clinicians in optimizing the establishment of individualized treatment programs and enhancing patients' prognoses.

A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Morbidity Risk in Patients with Secondary Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Bone Marrow: An Analysis Based on the Large MIMIC-III Clinical Database

Objective

Bone and bone marrow are the third most frequent sites of metastases from many cancers and are associated with low survival and high morbidity rates. Currently, there are no effective bedside tools to predict the morbidity risk of these patients in general intensive care units (ICUs). The main objective of this study was to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the morbidity risk of patients with bone and bone marrow metastases.

Methods

Data on patients with bone and bone marrow metastases were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. The patients were divided into training and validation cohorts. The data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression methods. Factors significantly and independently prognostic of survival were used to construct a nomogram predicting 30-day morbidity. The nomogram was validated by various methods, including Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The study included 610 patients in the training cohort and 262 in the validation cohort. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that temperature, SpO₂, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), comorbidities with coagulopathy, white blood cell count, heart rate, and respiratory rate were independent predictors of patient survival. The resulting nomogram had good discriminative ability, as shown by high AUCs, and was well calibrated, as demonstrated by calibration curves. Improvements in NRI and IDI values suggested that the nomogram was superior to the SOFA scoring system. DCA curves revealed that the nomogram showed good value in clinical applications.

Conclusion

This prognostic nomogram, based on demographic and laboratory parameters, was predictive of the 30-day morbidity rate in patients with secondary malignant neoplasms of the bone and bone marrow, suggesting its applicability in clinical practice.