Kaplan-Meier Curves, Cox Model, and P-Values Are Not Enough for the Prognostic Evaluation of Tumor Markers: Statistical Suggestions for a More Comprehensive Approach

Mitotic activity: A systematic literature review of the assessment methodology and prognostic value in canine tumors

One of the most relevant prognostic indices for tumors is cellular proliferation, which is most commonly measured by the mitotic activity in routine tumor sections. The goal of this systematic review was to analyze the methods and prognostic relevance of histologically measuring mitotic activity that have been reported for canine tumors in the literature. A total of 137 articles that correlated the mitotic activity in canine tumors with patient outcome were identified through a systematic (PubMed and Scopus) and nonsystematic (Google Scholar) literature search and eligibility screening process. Mitotic activity methods encompassed the mitotic count (MC, number of mitotic figures per tumor area) in 126 studies, presumably the MC (method not specified) in 6 studies, and the mitotic index (MI, number of mitotic figures per number of tumor cells) in 5 studies. A particularly high risk of bias was identified based on the available details of the MC methods and statistical analyses, which often did not quantify the prognostic discriminative ability of the MC and only reported P values. A significant association of the MC with survival was found in 72 of 109 (66%) studies. However, survival was evaluated by at least 3 studies in only 7 tumor types/groups, of which a prognostic relevance is apparent for mast cell tumors of the skin, cutaneous melanoma, and soft tissue tumor of the skin and subcutis. None of the studies using the MI found a prognostic relevance. This review highlights the need for more studies with standardized methods and appropriate analysis of the discriminative ability to prove the prognostic value of the MC and MI in various tumor types. Future studies are needed to evaluate the influence of the performance of individual pathologists on the appropriateness of prognostic thresholds and investigate methods to improve interobserver reproducibility.

Mitotic activity: A systematic literature review of the assessment methodology and prognostic value in feline tumors

Increased proliferation is a driver of tumorigenesis, and quantification of mitotic activity is a standard task for prognostication. This systematic review is an analysis of all available references on mitotic activity in feline tumors to provide an overview of the assessment methods and prognostic value. A systematic literature search in PubMed and Scopus and a nonsystematic search in Google Scholar were conducted. All articles on feline tumors that correlated mitotic activity with patient outcome were identified. Data analysis revealed that of the 42 eligible articles, mitotic count (MC, mitotic figures/tumor area) was evaluated in 39 studies, and mitotic index (MI, mitotic figures/tumor cells) in 3 studies. The risk of bias was considered high for most studies (26/42, 62%) based on small study populations, insufficient details of the MC/MI methods, and lack of statistical measures for diagnostic accuracy or effect on outcome. The MC/MI methods varied between studies. A significant association of MC with survival was determined in 20 of 28 (71%) studies (10 studies evaluated other outcome metrics or provided individual patient data), while 1 study found an inverse effect. Three tumor types had at least 4 studies, and a prognostic association with survival was found in 5 of 6 studies on mast cell tumors, 5 of 5 on mammary tumors, and 3 of 4 on soft-tissue sarcomas. MI was shown to correlate with survival for mammary tumors by 2 research groups; however, comparisons to MC were not conducted. Further studies with standardized mitotic activity methods and appropriate statistical analysis for discriminant ability of patient outcome are needed to infer the prognostic value of MC and MI.

Weishaar's classification system for nodal metastasis in sentinel lymph nodes: Clinical outcome in 94 dogs with mast cell tumor

BACKGROUND

The therapeutic role and prognostic relevance of lymphadenectomy in mast cell tumor (MCT) has historically been evaluated on regional rather than sentinel lymph nodes.

HYPOTHESIS/OBJECTIVES

To update information about the association of histological nodal (HN) classes with clinical outcome in dogs with MCT after tumor excision and extirpation of normal-sized sentinel nodes (SLN) guided by radiopharmaceutical.

ANIMALS

Ninety-four dogs with histologically-confirmed treatment-naïve MCT (71 cutaneous, 22 subcutaneous and 1 conjunctival MCT) were included if without: distant metastases, lymphadenomegaly, concurrent mixed cutaneous, and subcutaneous MCT.

METHODS

This was a monoistitutional cohort study. Tumors characteristics were retrieved and SLNs were classified according to Weishaar's system. Incidence of MCT-related events (local, nodal, distant relapse), de novo MCT or other tumors and death (MCT-related and non-MCT-related), were recorded. Incidence curves were compared among the HN classes.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven dogs had HN0, 19 HN1, 37 HN2, and 11 HN3 SLN. Thirteen (2 HN0, 4 HN2, and 7 HN3) received adjuvant chemotherapies. Kiupel high grade, increasing number of SLN and lymphocentrums were associated with higher HN classes. Five dogs died for MCT-related causes: 1 low-grade (HN0) and 1 subcutaneous (HN3) had a local relapse, 2 high-grade had distant relapse (HN3-HN0) and 1 dog developed disease progression from a de novo subcutaneous MCT. No nodal relapse was registered. Fourteen dogs developed de novo MCTs.

CONCLUSION/DISCUSSION

Low grade/low-risk MCT with nonpalpable and normal sized SLN have a favorable outcome independently from the HN. Result should be considered strictly related to the successful SLN detection guided pre- and intraoperative by radiopharmaceutical markers.

Splenic stromal sarcomas in dogs: Outcome and clinicopathological prognostic factors in 32 cases

Due to the low frequency and the changes in diagnostic techniques and terminology during the last few years, only little clinical information is available on splenic stromal sarcoma (SSS). This multi-institutional study aimed at gathering clinical cases of SSS in dogs and investigates their clinical behaviour, as well as analyse possible clinicopathological prognostic factors, including the use of adjuvant therapy. Dogs with a histologically confirmed SSS that underwent splenectomy were retrospectively included. To be included in the study, either FFPE tissue blocks or multiple tissue sections had to be available for histopathologic and immunohistochemical revision. Clinical and pathological variables, along with adjuvant therapy data, were collected. Cumulative incidence of metastatic disease was analysed through univariate and bivariate analyses. The impact of adjuvant chemotherapy on metastasis incidence and survival was assessed, considering an estimated propensity score. A total of 32 dogs were included. Among them, 22 developed metastases with an incidence of 37.5%, 59.38%, and 65.94% at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Univariate analysis identified mitotic count, total scoring, and necrosis as prognostic factors. In bivariate analysis, mitotic count remained prognostic. The administration of adjuvant chemotherapy did not have an impact on metastasis incidence or survival time. The study found that dogs with SSSs are at high risk of metastasis, although a small subgroup may experience longer survival after splenectomy. Mitotic count was the only variable having a reliable prognostic impact. Adjuvant chemotherapy did not appear to decrease the incidence of metastasis or prolong survival in these dogs.

Atypical Mitotic Figures Are Prognostically Meaningful for Canine Cutaneous Mast Cell Tumors

Cell division through mitosis (microscopically visible as mitotic figures, MFs) is a highly regulated process. However, neoplastic cells may exhibit errors in chromosome segregation (microscopically visible as atypical mitotic figures, AMFs) resulting in aberrant chromosome structures. AMFs have been shown to be of prognostic relevance for some neoplasms in humans but not in animals. In this study, the prognostic relevance of AMFs was evaluated for canine cutaneous mast cell tumors (ccMCT). Histological examination was conducted by one pathologist in whole slide images of 96 cases of ccMCT with a known survival time. Tumor-related death occurred in 11/18 high-grade and 2/78 low-grade cases (2011 two-tier system). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.859 for the AMF count and 0.880 for the AMF to MF ratio with regard to tumor-related mortality. In comparison, the AUC for the mitotic count was 0.885. Based on our data, a prognostically meaningful threshold of ≥3 per 2.37 mm2 for the AMF count (sensitivity: 76.9%, specificity: 98.8%) and >7.5% for the AMF:MF ratio (sensitivity: 76.9%, specificity: 100%) is suggested. While the mitotic count of ≥ 6 resulted in six false positive cases, these could be eliminated when combined with the AMF to MF ratio. In conclusion, the results of this study suggests that AMF enumeration is a prognostically valuable test, particularly due to its high specificity with regard to tumor-related mortality. Additional validation and reproducibility studies are needed to further evaluate AMFs as a prognostic criterion for ccMCT and other tumor types.

Development and validation of a nomogram involving immunohistochemical markers for prediction of recurrence in early low-risk endometrial cancer

Background

The purpose of this study was to construct a nomogram based on classical parameters and immunohistochemical markers to predict the recurrence of early low-risk endometrial cancer patients.

Methods

A total of 998 patients with early low-risk endometrial cancer who underwent primary surgical treatment were enrolled (668 in the training cohort, 330 in the validation cohort). Prognostic factors identified by univariate and multivariate analysis in the training cohort were used to construct the nomogram. Prediction performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the calibration curve, concordance index (C-index), and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve. The cumulative incidence curve was used to describe the prognosis of patients in high-risk and low-risk groups divided by the optimal risk threshold of the model.

Results

In the training cohort, grade ( P = 0.040), estrogen receptor ( P < 0.001), progesterone receptor ( P = 0.001), P53 ( P = 0.004), and Ki67 ( P = 0.002) were identified as independent risk factors of recurrence of early low-risk endometrial cancer, and were used to establish the nomogram. The calibration curve showed that the fitting degree of the model was good. The C-indexes of training and validation cohorts were 0.862 and 0. 827, respectively. Based on the optimal risk threshold of the nomogram, patients were split into a high-risk group and a low-risk group. The cumulative incidence curves showed that the prognosis of the high-risk group was far worse than that of the low-risk group ( P < 0.001).

Conclusion

This nomogram, with a combination of classical parameters and immunohistochemical markers, can effectively predict recurrence in early low-risk endometrial cancer patients.

Recent Advances in the Discovery of Biomarkers for Canine Osteosarcoma

Canine osteosarcoma (OSA) is an aggressive malignancy that frequently metastasizes to the lung and bone. Not only has there been essentially no improvement in therapeutic outcome over the past 3 decades, but there is also a lack of reliable biomarkers in clinical practice. This makes it difficult to discriminate which patients will most benefit from the standard treatment of amputation and adjuvant chemotherapy. The development of reliable diagnostic biomarkers could aid in the clinical diagnosis of primary OSA and metastasis; while prognostic, and predictive biomarkers could allow clinicians to stratify patients to predict response to treatment and outcome. This review summarizes biomarkers that have been explored in canine OSA to date. The focus is on molecular biomarkers identified in tumor samples as well as emerging biomarkers that have been identified in blood-based (liquid) biopsies, including circulating tumor cells, microRNAs, and extracellular vesicles. Lastly, we propose future directions in biomarker research to ensure they can be incorporated into a clinical setting.

Prognostic markers of canine mammary tumours: Retrospective study of 142 cases

Due to relevance of the problem, prediction of biological behaviour of neoplasias in mammary glands of dogs requires using contemporary approaches to the study, first of all, of ways of dissemination of tumour cells. One of them is studying the mechanisms of migration of cancer cells out of the neoplasm tissues with further dissemination and development of metastatic sites in the regional lymphatic nodes and remote tissues. We studied the survival period of bitches with tumours of the mammary glands following regional or unilateral mastectomy. Among malignant mammary tumours in bitches, the most often diagnosed were single tumours (57.5%), which histologically were classified to carcinomas – ductal (26.9%) and mixed type (21.9%). Probability of intratumoral invasion to blood vessels equaled 12.0%, to lymph vessels – 7.8%, lymph nodes – 12.8%. It depends on the histological type of the tumour, the most aggressive potentially being сomedocarcinoma, tubulopapillary carcinoma and ductal carcinoma. Parameters of life expectancy and survival level after mastectomy depend on clinical stage of the disease (increase in the stage from the first to the third was characterized by decrease from 12.8 ± 9.5 to 9.4 ± 7.8 months), presence of angio/lymphatic invasions, presence of angiolymphatic invasion, but had no correlation with the size of the tumours. An important predictor of tumour-related death of dogs suffering neoplasias of the mammary glands is index vet-NPI, which has significant correlation with the clinical stage according to Owen and median survival. In particular, median survival in patients with the index lower than 4 exceeded the corresponding values in dogs with the index above 4 by 1.3 times. A promising direction of further research would be studying biological mechanisms of development of tumour emboli in the blood and lymph vessels, metastatic sites in lymph nodes, and also determining their role in pathogenesis of canine mammary tumours.