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Fu Y, Wang W. Association between provincial sunshine duration and mortality rates in China: Panel data study. Heliyon 2023; 9:e15862. [PMID: 37215780 PMCID: PMC10199197 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2022] [Revised: 03/09/2023] [Accepted: 04/24/2023] [Indexed: 05/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Background mortality rates are usually influenced by the variations of environmental factors. However, there are few studies on the impact of sunlight duration induced mortality. In this study, we examine provincial level associations between the sunshine duration and crude mortality rates. Methods we use China mortality data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China combined with China census data and data from the China Meteorological Data Service Centre. Annual mortality rates for 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China from 2005 to 19. Data are analyzed at the provincial level by using panel regression methods. The main outcome measures are the mortality rates associated with average daily sunshine duration. Then we perform a series of sentimental analyses. Results the average daily sunshine duration ratio cubed is positively associated with provincial level mortality rates (β = 11.509, 95% confidence interval 1.869 to 21.148). According to this estimate, increasing 2.895 h of additional daily sunshine is associated with an estimated 1.15% increase in the crude mortality rates. A series of sensitivity analyses show a consistent pattern of associations between average daily sunshine duration ratio cubed and mortality rates. Conclusions more sunshine duration is associated with increased mortality rates. While the associations documented cannot be assumed to be causal, they suggest a potential association between increased sunshine duration and increased mortality rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Fu
- Urban Vocational College of Sichuan, Chengdu, China
| | - Weidong Wang
- Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, Chengdu, China
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Nichols GL, Gillingham EL, Macintyre HL, Vardoulakis S, Hajat S, Sarran CE, Amankwaah D, Phalkey R. Coronavirus seasonality, respiratory infections and weather. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:1101. [PMID: 34702177 PMCID: PMC8547307 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06785-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases. Methods Respiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient’s specimen date with a range of lag periods. Results The seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989–2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m2/h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m2/h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9–4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9–4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1–7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2–2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution of weather values for the same time period. Seasonal coronavirus infections in children under 3 years old were more frequent at the start of an annual epidemic than at the end, suggesting that the size of the susceptible child population may be important in the annual cycle. Conclusions The dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R0 associated with reduced temperatures and solar radiation. Increased measures to reduce transmission will need to be introduced in winter months for COVID-19. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06785-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- G L Nichols
- Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK. .,European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, C/O Knowledge Spa RCHT, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3HD, UK. .,School of Environmental Sciences, UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.
| | - E L Gillingham
- Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK
| | - H L Macintyre
- Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK.,School of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, B15 2TT, UK
| | - S Vardoulakis
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, C/O Knowledge Spa RCHT, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3HD, UK.,National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - S Hajat
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - C E Sarran
- Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK.,Institute of Health Research, University of Exeter, Saint Luke's Campus, Heavitree Road, Exeter, EX1 2LU, UK
| | - D Amankwaah
- Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK
| | - R Phalkey
- Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.,Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
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Martinez-Bakker M, Helm B. The influence of biological rhythms on host-parasite interactions. Trends Ecol Evol 2015; 30:314-26. [PMID: 25907430 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2015.03.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2014] [Revised: 02/22/2015] [Accepted: 03/12/2015] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Biological rhythms, from circadian control of cellular processes to annual cycles in life history, are a main structural element of biology. Biological rhythms are considered adaptive because they enable organisms to partition activities to cope with, and take advantage of, predictable fluctuations in environmental conditions. A flourishing area of immunology is uncovering rhythms in the immune system of animals, including humans. Given the temporal structure of immunity, and rhythms in parasite activity and disease incidence, we propose that the intersection of chronobiology, disease ecology, and evolutionary biology holds the key to understanding host-parasite interactions. Here, we review host-parasite interactions while explicitly considering biological rhythms, and propose that rhythms: influence within-host infection dynamics and transmission between hosts, might account for diel and annual periodicity in host-parasite systems, and can lead to a host-parasite arms race in the temporal domain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Micaela Martinez-Bakker
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
| | - Barbara Helm
- Institute for Biodiversity, Animal Health, and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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