Frailty at death: An examination of multiple causes of death in four low mortality countries in 2017

BACKGROUND

The increasing prevalence of frailty in aging populations represents a major social and public health challenge which warrants a better understanding of the contribution of frailty to the morbid process.

OBJECTIVE

To examine frailty-related mortality as reported on the death certificate in France, Italy, Spain and the United States in 2017.

METHODS

We identify frailty at death for the population aged 50 years and over in France, Italy, Spain and the United States. We estimate the proportions of deaths by sex, age group and country with specific frailty-related ICD-codes on the death certificate 1) as the underlying cause of death (UC), 2) elsewhere in Part I (sequence of diseases or conditions or events leading directly to death), and 3) anywhere in Part II (conditions that do not belong in Part I but whose presence contributed to death).

RESULTS

The age-standardized proportion of deaths with frailty at ages 50 and over is highest in Italy (25.0%), then in France (24.1%) and Spain (17.3%), and lowest in the United States (14.0%). Cross-country differences are smaller when frailty-related codes are either the underlying cause of the death or reported in Part II. Frailty-related mortality increases with age and is higher among females than males. Dementia is the most frequently reported frailty-related code.

CONCLUSIONS

Notable cross-country differences were found in the prevalence and the type of frailty-related symptoms at death even after adjusting for differential age distributions.

Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death: A Review of Methods and Practices

BACKGROUND

Research and reporting of mortality indicators typically focus on a single underlying cause of death selected from multiple causes recorded on a death certificate. The need to incorporate the multiple causes in mortality statistics-reflecting increasing multimorbidity and complex causation patterns-is recognized internationally. This review aims to identify and appraise relevant analytical methods and practices related to multiple causes.

METHODS

We searched Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from their incept ion to December 2020 without language restrictions, supplemented by consultation with international experts. Eligible articles analyzed multiple causes of death from death certificates. The process identified 4,080 items of which we reviewed 434 full-text articles.

RESULTS

Most articles we reviewed (76%, n = 332) were published since 2001. The majority of articles examined mortality by "any- mention" of the cause of death (87%, n = 377) and assessed pairwise combinations of causes (57%, n = 245). Since 2001, applications of methods emerged to group deaths based on common cause patterns using, for example, cluster analysis (2%, n = 9), and application of multiple-cause weights to re-evaluate mortality burden (1%, n = 5). We describe multiple-cause methods applied to specific research objectives for approaches emerging recently.

CONCLUSION

This review confirms rapidly increasing international interest in the analysis of multiple causes of death and provides the most comprehensive overview, to our knowledge, of methods and practices to date. Available multiple-cause methods are diverse but suit a range of research objectives. With greater availability of data and technology, these could be further developed and applied across a range of settings.

Effect of mortality in cost‐effectiveness modeling of disease‐modifying treatment for Alzheimer's disease

INTRODUCTION

We examined (1) the magnitude of mortality attributed to Alzheimer's disease (AD), and (2) the effect of mortality in cost‐effectiveness modeling of hypothetical disease‐modifying treatment (DMT) in AD.

METHOD

Data were derived from Swedish Dementia Registry (N = 39,308). Mortality was analyzed with survival analysis and multinomial logistic regression. A Markov microsimulation model was used to model the cost effectiveness of DMT using routine care as a comparator. Three scenarios were simulated: (1) indirect effect, (2) no effect on overall mortality, (3) indirect effect on AD‐related mortality.

RESULTS

Overall mortality increased with cognitive decline, age, male sex, number of medications used, and lower body mass index. Nearly all cause‐specific mortality was associated with cognitive decline. DMT increased survival by 0.35 years in scenario 1 and 0.14 years in scenario 3. DMT with no mortality effect is the least cost effective.

DISCUSSION

The results provide key mortality estimates and demonstrate influences on the cost effectiveness of DMT.

Highlights

We describe cause‐specific mortality in relation to disease severity in Alzheimer's disease (AD).

We model different assumptions of disease‐modifying treatment (DMT) on AD survival.

DMT was the least cost effective when assuming no effect on AD survival.

Cost effectiveness is mainly influenced by the relative cost of staying in each disease state.

Quantifying cause-related mortality in Australia, incorporating multiple causes: observed patterns, trends and practical considerations

BACKGROUND

Mortality statistics using a single underlying cause of death (UC) are key health indicators. Rising multimorbidity and chronic disease mean that deaths increasingly involve multiple conditions. However, additional causes reported on death certificates are rarely integrated into mortality indicators, partly due to complexities in data and methods. This study aimed to assess trends and patterns in cause-related mortality in Australia, integrating multiple causes (MC) of death.

METHODS

Deaths (n = 1 773 399) in Australia (2006-17) were mapped to 136 ICD-10-based groups and MC indicators applied. Age-standardized cause-related rates (deaths/100 000) based on the UC (ASRUC) were compared with rates based on any mention of the cause (ASRAM) using rate ratios (RR = ASRAM/ASRUC) and to rates based on weighting multiple contributing causes (ASRW).

RESULTS

Deaths involved on average 3.4 causes in 2017; the percentage with >4 causes increased from 20.9 (2006) to 24.4 (2017). Ischaemic heart disease (ASRUC = 73.3, ASRAM = 135.8, ASRW = 63.5), dementia (ASRUC = 51.1, ASRAM = 98.1, ASRW = 52.1) and cerebrovascular diseases (ASRUC = 39.9, ASRAM = 76.7, ASRW = 33.5) ranked as leading causes by all methods. Causes with high RR included hypertension (ASRUC = 2.2, RR = 35.5), atrial fibrillation (ASRUC = 8.0, RR = 6.5) and diabetes (ASRUC = 18.5, RR = 3.5); the corresponding ASRW were 12.5, 12.6 and 24.0, respectively. Renal failure, atrial fibrillation and hypertension ranked among the 10 leading causes by ASRAM and ASRW but not by ASRUC. Practical considerations in working with MC data are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the similarities in leading causes under the three methods, with integration of MC several preventable diseases emerged as leading causes. MC analyses offer a richer additional perspective for population health monitoring and policy development.

Mortality of Parkinson's disease in Italy from 1980 to 2015

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate mortality for Parkinson's disease (PD) in Italy during a long time period (1980-2015) and to discuss the role of possible general and specific influencing factors.

METHODS

Based on mortality data provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, sex- and age-specific crude mortality rates were computed, for the whole country and for its main geographical sub-areas. Rates were standardized using both direct (annual mortality rates AMRs) and indirect (standardized mortality rates SMRs) methods. SMRs were used to evaluate geographical differences, whereas AMRs and joinpoint linear regression analysis to study mortality trends.

RESULTS

Considering the entire period, highest mortality rates were observed in males (AMR/100,000: 9.0 in males, 5.25 in females), in North-West and Central Italy (SMR > 100). Overall PD mortality decreased from mid-eighties onwards and then rapidly reversed the trend in the period 1998-2002, rising up to a maximum in 2015, with some differences according to sex and geographical areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Several factors may have contributed to the rapid inversion of decreasing trend in mortality observed in the last part of XX century. Possible explanations of this rising trend are related to the increasing burden of PD (especially in males and in certain Italian regions), caused by different factors as population aging, physiological prevalence rise due to incidence exceeding mortality, and growing exposure to environmental or occupational risk factors. In addition, the accuracy of death certificate compilation could account for geographical differences and for the temporal trend. The role of levodopa and recently introduced dopaminergic drugs is also discussed.

Advanced cognitive impairment among older nursing home residents

BACKGROUND

Though work has been done studying nursing home (NH) residents with either advanced Alzheimer's disease (AD) or Alzheimer's disease related dementia (ADRD), none have distinguished between them; even though their clinical features affecting survival are different. In this study, we compared mortality risk factors and survival between NH residents with advanced AD and those with advanced ADRD.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study, in which we examined a sample of 34,493 U.S. NH residents aged 65 and over in the Minimum Data Set (2011-2013). Incident assessment of advanced disease was defined as the first MDS assessment with severe cognitive impairment (Cognitive Functional Score equals to 4) and diagnoses of AD or ADRD. Demographics, functional limitations, and comorbidities were evaluated as mortality risk factors using Cox models. Survival was characterized with Kaplan-Maier functions.

RESULTS

Of those with advanced cognitive impairment, 35 % had AD and 65 % ADRD. At the incident assessment of advanced disease, those with AD had better health compared to those with ADRD. Mortality risk factors were similar between groups (shortness of breath, difficulties eating, substantial weight-loss, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia; all p < 0.01). However, stroke and difficulty with transfer (for women) were significant mortality risk factors only for those with advanced AD. Urinary tract infection, and hypertension (for women) only were mortality risk factors for those with advanced ADRD. Median survival was significantly shorter for the advanced ADRD group (194 days) compared to the advanced AD group (300 days).

CONCLUSIONS

There were distinct mortality and survival patterns of NH residents with advanced AD and ADRD. This may help with care planning decisions regarding therapeutic and palliative care.

Prognostic predictors relevant to end-of-life palliative care in Parkinson's disease and related disorders: a systematic review

Parkinson's disease and related disorders (PDRD) are the second most common neurodegenerative disease and a leading cause of death. However, patients with PDRD receive less end-of-life palliative care (hospice) than other illnesses, including other neurologic illnesses. Identification of predictors of PDRD mortality may aid in increasing appropriate and timely referrals. To systematically review the literature for causes of death and predictors of mortality in PDRD to provide guidance regarding hospice/end-of-life palliative care referrals. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE and CINAHL databases (1970-2020) of original quantitative research using patient-level, provider-level or caregiver-level data from medical records, administrative data or survey responses associated with mortality, prognosis or cause of death in PDRD. Findings were reviewed by an International Working Group on PD and Palliative Care supported by the Parkinson's Foundation. Of 1183 research articles, 42 studies met our inclusion criteria. We found four main domains of factors associated with mortality in PDRD: (1) demographic and clinical markers (age, sex, body mass index and comorbid illnesses), (2) motor dysfunction and global disability, (3) falls and infections and (4) non-motor symptoms. We provide suggestions for consideration of timing of hospice/end-of-life palliative care referrals. Several clinical features of advancing disease may be useful in triggering end-of-life palliative/hospice referral. Prognostic studies focused on identifying when people with PDRD are nearing their final months of life are limited. There is further need for research in this area as well as policies that support need-based palliative care for the duration of PDRD.

A Systematic Review of the Psychological Implications of Genetic Testing: A Comparative Analysis Among Cardiovascular, Neurodegenerative and Cancer Diseases

Background: Genetic testing is performed for different purposes, such as identifying carriers, predicting a disease onset in presymptomatic individuals or confirming a diagnosis. However, these tests may have notable psychological effects, such as generating anxiety and depression. These effects may depend on people's perception of risk, severity, and controllability of the disease; and the availability of treatments. To date, there are no reports that analyze these factors specifically, and their role in influencing genetic test users' experience. Methods: We performed a systematic review of the psychological implication of undergoing genetic testing for cardiovascular, neurodegenerative and cancer diseases. Articles were searched on PubMed, Google Scholar, and PsychInfo. Results: 47 studies were included, 9 concerning cardiovascular disease, 18 neurodegenerative disorders, and 20 for cancer disease. According to the reviewed studies, people experience no significant increase in distress and anxiety, or adverse impacts on quality of life, except the Huntington disease, which is characterized by depressive symptoms, suicidal ideations, and hopelessness in gene carriers. People tend to consider genetic tests as valid information to take important preventive decisions. Genetic risk for cardiovascular disease is perceived to be manageable; genetic analysis for some neurodegenerative diseases (e.g., Alzheimer) or cancer (breast cancer in particular) is considered useful because the problem could be addressed in advance with preventive behaviors. Conclusions: Genetic tests should be proposed along with proper psychological support and counseling focused on users' genetic health literacy; perception of risk, beliefs about disease controllability, in order to foster fruitful medical decisions.

Insights on dying, dementia and death certificates

For our master thesis in medicine, we aimed to determine how many deaths were caused by and with dementia in 2014 and we compared our results with figures from abroad. The mortality rates of 2014 in Flanders were used to determine the amount of deaths related to dementia. These figures are collected by Vlaams Agentschap Zorg & Gezondheid (VAZG) and coded per ICD-10 classification. Of all deaths in Flanders in 2014, 6.60% were caused by dementia and 4.29% were caused by another condition, while also suffering from dementia. Data from abroad are ambiguous. While working on our thesis about “death & dementia”, we questioned the reliability of mortality statistics. Possible explanations could be; the complexity of completing death certificates correctly and the challenges involved in properly constructing a chain of causes of death. The accuracy of mortality data can be improved by training and redrafting death certificates.

Contribution of alcohol use disorders to the burden of dementia in France 2008-13: a nationwide retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dementia is a prevalent condition, affecting 5-7% of people aged 60 years and older, and a leading cause of disability in people aged 60 years and older globally. We aimed to examine the association between alcohol use disorders and dementia risk, with an emphasis on early-onset dementia (<65 years).

METHODS

We analysed a nationwide retrospective cohort of all adult (≥20 years) patients admitted to hospital in metropolitan France between 2008 and 2013. The primary exposure was alcohol use disorders and the main outcome was dementia, both defined by International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision discharge diagnosis codes. Characteristics of early-onset dementia were studied among prevalent cases in 2008-13. Associations of alcohol use disorders and other risk factors with dementia onset were analysed in multivariate Cox models among patients admitted to hospital in 2011-13 with no record of dementia in 2008-10.

FINDINGS

Of 31 624 156 adults discharged from French hospitals between 2008 and 2013, 1 109 343 were diagnosed with dementia and were included in the analyses. Of the 57 353 (5·2%) cases of early-onset dementia, most were either alcohol-related by definition (22 338 [38·9%]) or had an additional diagnosis of alcohol use disorders (10 115 [17·6%]). Alcohol use disorders were the strongest modifiable risk factor for dementia onset, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3·34 (95% CI 3·28-3·41) for women and 3·36 (3·31-3·41) for men. Alcohol use disorders remained associated with dementia onset for both sexes (adjusted hazard ratios >1·7) in sensitivity analyses on dementia case definition (including Alzheimer's disease) or older study populations. Also, alcohol use disorders were significantly associated with all other risk factors for dementia onset (all p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Alcohol use disorders were a major risk factor for onset of all types of dementia, and especially early-onset dementia. Thus, screening for heavy drinking should be part of regular medical care, with intervention or treatment being offered when necessary. Additionally, other alcohol policies should be considered to reduce heavy drinking in the general population.

FUNDING

None.

Mortality, morbidity and health in developed societies: a review of data sources

The purpose of this paper is to review the major sources of data on mortality, morbidity and health in Europe and in other developed regions in order to examine their potential for analysing mortality and morbidity levels and trends. The review is primarily focused on routinely collected information covering a whole country. No attempt is made to draw up an inventory of sources by country; the paper deals instead with the pros and cons of each source for mortality and morbidity studies in demography. While each source considered separately can already yield useful, though partial, results, record linkage among data sources can significantly improve the analysis. Record linkage can also lead to the detection of possible causal associations that could eventually be confirmed. More generally, Big Data can reveal changing mortality and morbidity trends and patterns that could lead to preventive measures being taken rather than more costly curative ones.

Multiple cause-of-death data among people with AIDS in Italy: a nationwide cross-sectional study

Background

Multiple cause-of-death (MCOD) data allow analyzing the contribution to mortality of conditions reported on the death certificate that are not selected as the underlying cause of death. Using MCOD data, this study aimed to fully describe the cause-specific mortality of people with AIDS (PWA) compared to people without AIDS.

Methods

We conducted a nationwide investigation based on death certificates of 2,515 Italian PWA and 123,224 people without AIDS who had died between 2006 and 2010. The conditions most frequently associated with PWA mortality, compared to people without AIDS, were identified using an age-standardized proportion ratio (ASPR) calculated as the ratio between the age-standardized proportion of a specific cause among PWA and the same proportion among people without AIDS.

Results

The most frequently reported conditions at death among PWA were infectious/parasitic diseases (52%), digestive (36%), respiratory (33%), and circulatory (32%) system diseases, and neoplasms (29%). All AIDS-defining conditions resulted highly associated (ASPR significantly greater than unity) with PWA deaths. Significant associations also emerged for leishmaniasis (ASPR = 188.0), encephalitis/myelitis/encephalomyelitis (ASPR = 14.3), dementia (ASPR = 13.1), chronic viral hepatitis (ASPR = 13.1), liver fibrosis/cirrhosis (ASPR = 4.4), pneumonia (ASPR = 4.4), anal (ASPR = 12.1) and liver (ASPR = 1.9) cancers, and Hodgkin’s disease (ASPR = 3.1).

Conclusions

Study findings identified the contribution of several non-AIDS-defining conditions on PWA mortality, emphasizing the need of preventive public health interventions targeting this population.

Increase in Parkinson's disease-related mortality among males in Northern Italy

BACKGROUND

According to standard mortality statistics based on the underlying cause of death (UCOD), mortality from Parkinson's disease (PD) is increasing in most European countries. However, mortality trends are better investigated taking into account all the diseases reported in the death certificate (multiple causes of death approach, MCOD).

METHODS

All deaths of residents in the Veneto Region (Northern Italy) aged≥45 years with any mention of PD were extracted from 2008 to 2015. The Annual Percent Change (APC) in age-standardized mortality rates was computed both for PD as the UCOD, and by MCOD. The association with common chronic comorbidities and acute complications was investigated by log-binomial regression. The frequency of the mention of PD in death certificates was investigated through linkage with an archive of patients with a previous clinical diagnosis of the disease.

RESULTS

PD was reported in 2.1% of all deaths, rising from 1.9% in 2008 to 2.4% in 2015. Among males, age-standardized rates increased over time both in analyses based on the UCOD (APC +4.1%; Confidence Interval +1.5%,+6.7%), and on MCOD (APC +2.2%; +0.2,+4.2%). Among females time trends were not significant. Mention of PD was associated with that of dementia/Alzheimer and acute infectious diseases. Among known PD patients, the disease was reported only in 60.2% of death certificates.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality associated to PD is steeply increasing among males in Northern Italy; further investigations on time trends for PD, both through all available electronic health archives and clinical studies, should be set as a priority for epidemiological research.

Quantifying cause-related mortality by weighting multiple causes of death

Objective

To investigate a new approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates that involves assigning weights to each cause of death reported on death certificates.

Methods

We derived cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data for France in 2010 using: (i) the classic method, which considered only the underlying cause of death; and (ii) three novel multiple-cause-of-death weighting methods, which assigned weights to multiple causes of death mentioned on death certificates: the first two multiple-cause-of-death methods assigned non-zero weights to all causes mentioned and the third assigned non-zero weights to only the underlying cause and other contributing causes that were not part of the main morbid process. As the sum of the weights for each death certificate was 1, each death had an equal influence on mortality estimates and the total number of deaths was unchanged. Mortality rates derived using the different methods were compared.

Findings

On average, 3.4 causes per death were listed on each certificate. The standardized mortality rate calculated using the third multiple-cause-of-death weighting method was more than 20% higher than that calculated using the classic method for five disease categories: skin diseases, mental disorders, endocrine and nutritional diseases, blood diseases and genitourinary diseases. Moreover, this method highlighted the mortality burden associated with certain diseases in specific age groups.

Conclusion

A multiple-cause-of-death weighting approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data identified conditions that contributed more to mortality than indicated by the classic method. This new approach holds promise for identifying underrecognized contributors to mortality.

Reporting of clinically diagnosed dementia on death certificates: retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

mortality statistics are a frequently used source of information on deaths in dementia but are limited by concerns over accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

to investigate the frequency with which clinically diagnosed dementia is recorded on death certificates, including predictive factors.

METHODS

a retrospective cohort study assembled using a large mental healthcare database in South London, linked to Office for National Statistics mortality data. People with a clinical diagnosis of dementia, aged 65 or older, who died between 2006 and 2013 were included. The main outcome was death certificate recording of dementia.

RESULTS

in total, 7,115 people were identified. Dementia was recorded on 3,815 (53.6%) death certificates. Frequency of dementia recording increased from 39.9% (2006) to 63.0% (2013) (odds ratio (OR) per year increment 1.11, 95% CI 1.07-1.15). Recording of dementia was more likely if people were older (OR per year increment 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), and for those who died in care homes (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.50-2.40) or hospitals (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03-1.46) compared with home, and less likely for people with less severe cognitive impairment (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94-0.96), and if the diagnosis was Lewy body (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.15-0.62) or vascular dementia (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.68-0.93) compared with Alzheimer's disease.

CONCLUSIONS

changes in certification practices may have contributed to the rise in recorded prevalence of dementia from mortality data. However, mortality data still considerably underestimate the population burden of dementia. Potential biases affecting recording of dementia need to be taken into account when interpreting mortality data.

Subjective wellbeing and longevity: Findings from a 22-year cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The health implications of positive affect (PA) are still a matter of debate. The present study examined the longitudinal relationships between subjective wellbeing (SWB) components (i.e., Life satisfaction, PA and negative affect (NA)) and all-cause mortality in older adults.

METHODS

Discrete-time survival analysis within the structural equation modeling framework was applied to data from the PAQUID Cohort (n=3777, baseline age 62-101years) including ten time periods spanning 22years. Time-invariant (age, gender, baseline life satisfaction, diabetes mellitus and hypercholesterolemia status) and lagged time-varying (PA, NA, dementia, functional status and self-rated health) predictors were included sequentially in the analyses.

RESULTS

When included together in the model, only PA among the SWB components showed a significant association with longevity, which persisted (OR=.962, 95% CI=.938, .986) even after adjustment for the interaction between PA and NA, and after additional adjustment for prior medical conditions, functional status and self-rated health.

CONCLUSIONS

In congruence with positive psychology, PA proved to be an independent protective factor regardless of variations in NA, which did not seem to be a mortality risk factor.

3.0 T MRI arterial spin labeling and magnetic resonance spectroscopy technology in the application of Alzheimer's disease

The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes in the cerebral blood flow (CBF) and spectrum variables in the posterior cingulate region of patients with AD under the detection of arterial spin labeling (ASL) and magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS). A total of 20 AD patients (8 males and 12 females; mean age, 64.84±8.82 years) and 20 healthy controls (9 males and 11 females; mean age, 64.94±7.93 years) were included in this study for analysis. All images were obtained using a 3.0-T MR imager and an 8-channel head array receiving coil. MRS measurements were conducted exploring variables of metabolite ratios. Statistical analyses were conducted with the SPSS 11.0 statistical software package. Findings in the present study revealed a significant difference in the mean MMSE scores between the AD group and the healthy control group (16.21±4.01 vs. 27.35±1.01, P<0.01). Compared with the healthy control group, CBF in the bilateral frontal region showed a significant decrease in the AD group (right frontal: 83.5±7.2 vs. 110±11.5, P<0.05; left frontal: 85.6±8.1 vs. 108.7±12.2, P<0.05, respectively), and a similar association was also observed in the TL, TPJ, parietal, and hippocampal regions (all P<0.05). MRS imaging in the posterior cingulate region showed a significant reduction in the NAA/Cr ratio in the AD group (1.43±0.1 vs. 1.49±0.0, P<0.05). Additionally, we found that the MI/Cr and Cho/Cr ratios were higher than normal controls in patients with AD (all P<0.05). Our results suggested that 3D ASL detection combined with MRS in studying AD could show the regional hypo-perfusion with the decrease of CBF and the abnormal metabolic changes of the posterior cingulate cortex.