How Do Professionals Assess Sexual Recidivism Risk? An Updated Survey of Practices

Other Specified Paraphilic Disorder: Patterns of Use in Sexually Violent Predator Evaluations

"Sexually violent predator" (SVP) legislation requires, in part, that an individual has a mental abnormality that causes difficulty in controlling sexual behavior. Previous research has found paraphilia not otherwise specified (NOS) as one of the most prevalent diagnoses proffered in SVP evaluations. However, the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-5) modified paraphilia NOS diagnosis in two ways. First, this diagnosis was divided into two new diagnostic categories: other specified paraphilic disorder (OSPD) and unspecified paraphilic disorder. Second, OSPD required an added specifier to indicate the individual's source of sexual arousal. To date, no study has systematically explored how the revision to paraphilia NOS has affected diagnoses within SVP evaluations. The current study explored the frequency and diagnostic reliability of paraphilic disorders in a sample of 190 adult men evaluated for SVP civil commitment using the DSM-5. Results indicated that OSPD was the second most common paraphilic disorder, next to pedophilic disorder. However, there was poor to fair agreement (kappa = 0.21, p < .01) between independent evaluators in providing this diagnosis. Additionally, the two most common OSPD specifiers were non-consent and hebephilia, despite recent debate and rejection of these constructs from the DSM-5. While these constructs were the most prevalent, the specifiers contained quite varied terminology, suggesting vague diagnostic tendencies within these evaluations. Given that the presence of a mental abnormality is the cornerstone to the constitutionality of SVP commitment, diagnostic practices should be based in reliable and valid techniques.

Does Being Over 60 Years Old at Index Offense Impact Sexual Recidivism Risk? A Large-Scale Comparison of Men Released Over the Age of 60

Research has consistently found risk for sexual recidivism drops as men convicted of a sexual offense age. One question that remains, however, is whether this age-related reduction in risk applies to men who commit their sexual offenses at an older age. The current study examined this question in a sample of 939 men who were screened for civil management and released to the community (mean follow-up = 6.33 years, SD = 3.98 years), by comparing the sexual recidivism rates of (a) 238 men convicted of sexual offenses committed over the age of 60 (Over-60 Index group), and (b) 701 men who committed sexual offenses under the age of 60 but who were released to the community over the age of 60 (Under-60 Index group). Even though the Under-60 Index group was significantly higher risk at release, the Over-60 Index group sexually recidivated at a significantly higher rate, a difference largely driven by the small group of men who had committed sexual offenses both under and over the age of 60. The Static-99R was a strong predictor of sexual recidivism regardless of age at sexual offending (i.e., just under 60, just over 60, or both under and over 60). The 2021 Routine Samples norms significantly overpredicted sexual recidivism for the Under-60 Index group and significantly underpredicted sexual recidivism for the Over-60 Index group, indicating that the use of the 2016 High Risk/High Needs norms could be more appropriate for the Over-60 Index group, particularly those men who sexually offended under the age of 60 before sexually offending over the age of 60.

Exploratory rasch analysis of a static-99R clinical cohort assessment

Modern test theory supplements the more prevalent classic methods for assessing test properties. However, such an assessment of the commonly used sexual recidivism risk assessment instrument, Static-99R, has yet to be attempted. This study evaluated the psychometric properties of said instrument using Rasch analysis. The clinical cohort assessed consisted of individuals with mental disorders convicted of a sexual offense (N = 146). Results showed that the original ten-item Static‑99R did not meet the Rasch model requirements, and revisions of the instrument with seven and nine items each only marginally improved performance. More reliable results could likely have been obtained with a larger, non-clinical sample and a more randomized distribution of missing data. Despite the consistently poor performance of item 3 ("Index non-sexual violence") in all three analyses, reliability was slightly improved by dichotomizing the only two polytomous items in the Static-99R; items 1 ("Age at release from index offense") and 5 ("Prior sexual offenses"). These results may be of interest considering the significant change of splitting the formerly dichotomous item 1 into four different response categories in the revision of Static-99 to Static-99R.

Evaluating layperson interpretation of actuarial sexual violence risk data: A multi-method comparison of risk communication with attention to gender bias

Forensic clinicians are often called upon to help courts determine the likelihood that someone will continue to commit sexually violent acts in the future. The utility of these evaluations depends largely on how effectively the results are communicated to and understood by the trier of fact. Actuarial results, such as those commonly reported in sexual offense risk assessments, appear particularly challenging for laypersons to understand. Using a representative sample of 206 U.S. adults, this study examines three methods of communicating actuarial risk via simulated expert testimony on participants' ratings of a hypothetical evaluee's risk of sexual re-offending. The results suggested that all participants, regardless of how results were communicated, over-estimated the examinee's risk level relative to the expert's probabilistic findings, but tended to agree with the expert's categorical predictions. Participants who were only shown actuarial data consistently rated the evaluee as more dangerous and likely to commit future sexually violent acts. Additionally, it was found that gender significantly impacted participants' perceptions, such that women found the evaluee more dangerousness and desired greater social distance from him. This study has implications for best practices regarding expert communication of actuarial results in cases involving sexual violence.

Dynamic Risk Scales Degrade Over Time: Evidence for Reassessments

Risk tools containing dynamic (potentially changeable) factors are routinely used to evaluate the recidivism risk of justice-involved individuals. Although frequent reassessments are recommended, there is little research on how the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments changes over time. This study examined the extent to which predictive accuracy decreases over time for the ACUTE-2007 and the STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools. We used two independent samples of men on community supervision (NStudy 1 = 795; NStudy 2 = 4,221). For all outcomes (sexual, violent, and any recidivism [including technical violations]), reassessments improved predictive accuracy, with the largest effects found for the most recent assessment (i.e., those closest in time prior to the recidivism event). Based on these results, we recommend that ACUTE-2007 assessments occur at least every 30 days and that the STABLE-2007 assessments occur every 6 months or after significant life changes (e.g., successful completion of treatment).

Long Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend

Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20 years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs (n = 190, average age of 38 years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5 years (Static-99R, E/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20 years: Static-99R, E/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20 years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%-70% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.

Dynamic Individual Risk Networks: Personalized Network Modelling Based on Experience Sampling Data

Following a network perspective, risk of sexual reoffending can be understood as a construct that emerges from the interactions between risk factors. If these interrelationships are validly mapped out, this leads to an increased understanding of the risk and thus may contribute to more effective and/or more efficient interventions. This paper reports on personalized network modeling mapping the interrelationships of dynamic risk factors for an individual convicted of sexual offenses, using experience sampling (ESM) based on Stable-2007 items. The longitudinal character of ESM enables both the assessment of interrelations between risk factors within a timeframe and the relationships between risk factors over time. Networks are calculated and compared to the clinical assessment of interrelationships between the risk factors.

Cross-Cultural Validity of Sexual Recidivism Risk Assessments Using Static-99R, STABLE-2007, and the VRS-SO

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The overrepresentation of certain racial/ethnic groups in criminal legal systems raises concerns about the cross-cultural application of risk assessment tools. We provide a framework for conceptualizing and measuring racial bias/fairness and review research for three tools assessing risk of sexual recidivism: Static-99R, STABLE-2007, and VRS-SO.

RECENT FINDINGS

Most cross-cultural research examines Static-99R and generally supports its use with Black, White, Hispanic, and Asian men. Preliminary research also supports STABLE-2007 with Asian men. Findings are most concerning for Indigenous men, where Static-99R and STABLE-2007 significantly predict sexual recidivism, but with significantly and meaningfully lower accuracy compared to White men. For the VRS-SO and the combined Static-99R/STABLE-2007 risk levels, predictive accuracy was not significantly lower for Indigenous men, for which we discuss several possible explanations. We offer considerations for risk scale selection with Indigenous men and highlight recent guidance produced for cross-cultural risk assessment.

Empirically-based dynamic risk and protective factors for sexual offending

This review provides an overview and update of empirical evidence for psychologically meaningful dynamic risk factors and protective factors for sexual offending. Using the review by Mann et al. (2010) as a starting point, we reviewed relevant literature that has appeared since this publication, focusing on meta-analyses, systematic and scoping reviews of dynamic risk factors, recent evaluations of commonly used dynamic assessment tools, and studies of dynamic risk and protective factors in community samples in addition to clinical or forensic samples. Two risk factors previously deemed promising by Mann et al. (2010), hostility towards women and dysfunctional coping (conceptualized as hostile masculinity and emotional regulation deficits, respectively, in this review), could now be considered supported using this review's criteria of three or more studies demonstrating an effect size of 0.15 or greater. No new risk factors were identified. We conducted a broader search of protective factors in recognition of the relative newness of this literature: Positive social support was the only protective factor identified as empirically supported. We also discuss situational risk and protective factors.

Same Score, Different Audience, Different Message: Perceptions of Sex Offense Risk Depend on Static-99R Risk Level and Personality Factors of the Recipient

There are multiple ways to report risk scale results. Varela et al. (2014) found that Static-99R results were interpreted differently by prospective jurors based on risk level (high vs low) and an interaction between risk level and risk communication format (categorical, absolute estimate, and risk ratio). We adapted and extended Varela et al.'s (2014) study using updated Static-99R norms, recruiting a population-wide sample (n = 166), and adding variables assessing the personality factors 'cognitive motivation' (i.e., need for cognition) and 'attitudinal affect' (i.e., attitudes toward sex offenders, authoritarianism). We found a main effect of risk level and no effect of either communication format or the interaction between the two. Adding the personality variables increased explained variance from 9% to 34%, suggesting risk perception may be more about the personality of the person receiving the information than the information itself. We also found an interaction between attitudes toward sex offenders and risk level. Our results suggest risk perception might be better understood if personality factors are considered, particularly attitudes toward sex offenders. Because biases/personality of the person receiving the information are unknown in real world settings we argue that sharing multiple methods for communicating risk might be best and more inclusive.

Attending to the Positive: A Retrospective Validation of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors-Sexual Offence Version

Sexual recidivism risk assessment tools focus almost exclusively on risk factors associated with increased rates of recidivism and do not attend to protective factors that might mitigate reoffense risk. The present study investigated the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors - Sexual Offence version (SAPROF-SO), developed to assess hypothesised protective factors against sexual recidivism in adult males. The SAPROF-SO pilot version contains 24 items across two domains: Personal and Professionally Provided Support. SAPROF-SO scores were rated retrospectively from a review of archived case files of 210 men with convictions for child sexual offenses, using the SAPROF-SO pilot manual and a supplementary retrospective scoring guide developed for the current study. SAPROF-SO Total and Personal domain scores were significantly predictive of sexual recidivism after an average follow-up period of 12.24 years (AUC = .81), and to a lesser extent, violent and general recidivism. SAPROF-SO Total and Personal scores additionally provided significant incremental validity over Static-99R scores in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Results support the predictive validity of protective factors for reduced sexual recidivism and invite future research examining how to integrate the SAPROF-SO alongside contemporary sexual recidivism risk assessment tools.

Predictive Validity of Static-99R Among 8,207 Men Convicted of Sexual Crimes in South Korea: A Prospective Field Study

The accuracy of risk assessment tools for Asian populations has received relatively little research attention. This study evaluated one of the most widely used static risk assessment tools - Static-99R - for assessing the likelihood of recidivism among men convicted of a sexual crime in South Korea. Overall, this South Korean sample (N = 8207) appeared to have a higher risk (more paraphilic interests, more sexual/general criminality) than the Static-99R normative samples (who were mostly White individuals from Western countries). Despite the differences, Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists in South Korea, with AUC values similar to that observed in the normative samples (e.g., 0.72 for sexual recidivism). In terms of calibration, the observed sexual recidivism rates of the current sample were higher than the international routine/complete normative samples but lower than the high-risk/high-need normative samples (E/O = 0.75 and 1.26, respectively). Consequently, evaluators in South Korea can have reasonable confidence in the ability of Static-99R to rank individuals according to their relative likelihood of sexual recidivism.

Do Sanctions Affect Undetected Sexual Offending?

Undetected sexual offending creates challenges for risk assessment since estimated sexual recidivism rates are based on documented charges or convictions. Courts and other stakeholders may be primarily interested in the true risk for sexual reoffense and not simply risk for detected sexual offenses. Attempts to study and quantify the rate of undetected sexual offending have resulted in a wide variety of estimates. In this study, we explore whether sanctions imposed for detected sexual offenses increase the detection rate of subsequent offenses, and thereby suppress undetected sexual offending in an exceptionally high-risk sample who were ultimately committed as Sexually Violent Persons. Results indicate the detection rate of sexual offenses increased following an initial sanction, subsequently decreasing the proportion of undetected to detected offending. This effect only occurred after the first sanction. Overall, the sample had a high detection rate and spent little time in the community before subsequent arrests. These results differ from other reports that high rates of sexual offenses go undetected.

California Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Evaluations in the Field: Static-99R and Diagnostic Field Reliability

Tests and diagnoses used in sexually violent predator (SVP) evaluations must be reliable, as reliability is foundational to validity. The current study contained a stratified sample of evaluations of 395 individuals referred as potential SVPs between 2012 and 2017. Each individual was initially evaluated by at least two experts. The sample included three groups: individuals not meeting SVP criteria (N = 200, or 400 evaluations), individuals meeting SVP criteria (N = 95, with 190 evaluations), and individuals where evaluators disagreed (N = 100, with 200 evaluations). The sample also included 200 subsequent independent evaluations on these "disagree" cases. Static-99R score intraclass coefficient (ICC) interrater reliability was good to excellent within each group and overall. Evaluators scored the Static-99R within one point of each other 87% of the time. Cohen's kappa diagnostic agreement for Pedophilic Disorder was substantial. ASPD and substance abuse kappa were in the "fair" range, while OSPD diagnoses in the positive group were at the "moderate" level of agreement. Ethnic differences in diagnoses were consistent with other studies, with equivalent Static-99R ICC values across ethnic groups. There were no significant differences between state civil servants versus contracted experts in Static-99R ratings or final determinations. The results suggest that Static-99R scores have acceptable reliability in these evaluations, and Pedophilic Disorder (the most common paraphilic disorder in our study) and OSPD can be reliably diagnosed. We discuss limitations of the study, as well as the need for care in high-stakes evaluations given the imperfect reliability of psychological measurements.

A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California's Sexually Violent Predator Act

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up (N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up (n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample's older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.

Understanding the Latent Structure of Dynamic Risk: Seeking Empirical Constraints on Theory Development Using the VRS-SO and the Theory of Dynamic Risk

The present study is part of a larger project aiming to more closely integrate theory with empirical research into dynamic risk. It seeks to generate empirical findings with the dynamic risk factors contained in the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) that might constrain and guide the further development of Thornton's theoretical model of dynamic risk. Two key issues for theory development are (a) whether the structure of pretreatment dynamic risk factors is the same as the structure of the change in the dynamic risk factors that occurs during treatment, and (b) whether theoretical analysis should focus on individual dynamic items or on the broader factors that run through them. Factor analyses and item-level prediction analyses were conducted on VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and change ratings obtained from a large combined sample of men (Ns = 1,289-1,431) convicted and treated for sexual offenses. Results indicated that the latent structure of pretreatment dynamic risk was best described by a three-factor model while the latent structure of change items was two dimensional. Prediction analyses examined the degree to which items were predictive beyond prediction obtained from the broader factor that they loaded on. Results showed that for some items, their prediction appeared to be largely carried by the three broad factors. In contrast, other items seem to operate as funnels through which the broader factors' predictiveness flowed. Implications for theory development implied by these results are identified.

An Examination of the Latent Constructs in Risk Tools for Individuals Who Sexually Offend: Applying Multidimensional Item Response Theory to the Static-2002R

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) was used to study the construct validity of the Static-2002R, an actuarial scale for the assessment of reoffending among adult men who sexually offended. Using a sample of 2,569 individuals with a history of sexual crime, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) extracted three factors: Persistence/Paraphilia, General Criminality, and Youthful Stranger Aggression. MIRT confirmed the factor structure identified in the EFA model and provided item-level data on discrimination and difficulty. All Static-2002R items showed moderate to very high discrimination and covered a wide range of risk levels (i.e., difficulty). MIRT analyses attested to the construct validity of the scale, as no items were identified as problematic and the resulting factor structure was consistent with that of earlier studies. Considering the stability of results pertaining to the factor structure of the Static-2002R and the advantages of dimensional scoring, we recommend the integration of dimensional scores in the scale.

Dynamic sexual offense risk assessment using the VRS-SO with indeterminate sentenced men

Indeterminate detention (ID) is a high stakes sanction reserved for exceptionally high risk-high need (HRHN) persons who are deemed to pose an undue risk to public safety. It is one of the most extreme measures that is routinely taken by justice systems to manage sexual violence risk and prevent sexual and violent recidivism. Naturally, risk assessment is most frequently employed as a mechanism to keep dangerous people in custody; but seldom is risk assessment viewed as a possible ticket out for men with an ID designation who have made substantive risk changes and whose risk can be safely managed in the community. This article features applications of a dynamic sexual violence risk assessment and treatment planning tool, the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO), with ID individuals and other HRHN men, to assess risk in a dynamic manner to inform risk management efforts and release decisions. VRS-SO data on an ID sample are presented along with clinical illustrations of dynamic risk assessment. Several propositions are made with supporting data from VRS-SO normative research with treated sexual offending samples regarding the use of dynamic tools with ID men and the perils and pitfalls of relying solely on static measures. Ultimately, dynamic risk instruments can be used to track progress and monitor risk change over multiple assessments to inform release and reintegration decisions with ID persons. In this regard, dynamic assessment has the potential to help, rather than hinder, reintegration of ID sentenced persons and can inform safe, fair, and humane decisions.

Use of the Violence Risk Scale – Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) within sexually violent persons evaluations

In many parts of the United States, individuals can be civilly committed as Sexually Violent Persons (SVP) to a secure treatment center based on their history of sexual offenses, current mental disorder, and current risk for sexual recidivism. While the specific criteria vary between jurisdictions, SVP civil commitment is indefinite, and periodic examinations occur to determine if ongoing commitment is necessary. Release recommendations may be made in part based on patients’ treatment progress. Therefore, incorporating treatment change into periodic risk assessments is an important role of the SVP evaluator. The current paper sought to explore the benefits of using an actuarial tool within SVP populations to measure decreased sexual recidivism risk as a result of treatment change. Specific discussion of the use of the Violence Risk Scale – Sexual Offense version (Olver et al., 2007, https://doi.org/10.1037/1040-3590.19.3.318) is provided.

Stable-2007 and indeterminate detention

Public safety is the primary reason to assess future risk in men with a history of sexual offending. Over the last twenty-five years our knowledge of, and ability to assess, dynamic risk factors in men with a history of sexual offending has meaningfully improved, but understanding, adoption, utilization, and reasonable implementation of the fruits of this new knowledge is not universal. This article presents a brief overview of the development of dynamic risk assessment for men with a history of sexual offending, primarily following the work of R. Karl Hanson and his associates. This is followed by a review of a meta-analysis on the reliability and validity of STABLE-2007 and two other independent studies that provide useful ancillary information. Utilizing STABLE-2007 with men faced with, or under sanction of indeterminate detention is the focus of this paper and we will review how mental health diagnoses affect recidivism assessment, some concerns about implicit assessment biases, how to employ stable dynamic assessment in secure facilities, address treatment implications resulting from dynamic assessment, and present ideas for future research. I will close by presenting nine (9) arguments why using STABLE-2007 is recommended practice with indeterminate detention populations.

Forensic Experts' Perspectives on Australian Indigenous Sexual Offenders and Factors Important in Evaluating the Risk of Recidivism

Law and ethics require that risk assessment should be cross-culturally valid and fair, but Australian research in this regard is underdeveloped. A logical first step in progressing the work required to build a strong evidence base on culturally sensitive risk assessment in Australia is to determine the expert views of those in the field. We interviewed 13 Australian evaluators who assess Indigenous sexual offenders' recidivism risk to determine their perceptions of the risk assessment instruments they use and the attributes they believe evaluators doing cross-cultural assessments should have. Our central findings are that evaluators use the available instruments because they believe that the same factors predict sexual recidivism for Indigenous and non-Indigenous offenders, but that they do so cautiously knowing the limitations of the instruments. Evaluators nevertheless want more research data to guide them when they use the available instruments to assess people from cultures that differ from those of people in the normative sample. Participants acknowledge that the unique challenges of assessing Indigenous sexual offenders require non-Indigenous evaluators to be culturally competent and confident. These findings should be valuable to evaluators and those who train or supervise evaluators and/or intend to establish or improve the validity of risk instruments in Australia.

An Exploratory Study of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses in Singapore

The predictive validity of risk assessment instruments for persons who have committed sexual offenses has improved tremendously in the last four decades, but the progress has been limited to Western offender populations. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of Static-99R, Stable-2007, Sexual Violence Risk-20, Version 2 (SVR-20 v2), Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), and Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) in predicting recidivism of persons convicted on sexual offenses in Singapore. Retrospective data of 134 such persons were used to code the various instruments. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed that combined Static-99R/Stable-2007 new standardized risk ratings, SVR-20 v2 total scores and risk ratings, PCL-R total scores, as well as LS/CMI total scores and risk ratings predicted sexual recidivism. All the aforementioned instruments' total scores and risk ratings (if applicable) predicted any recidivism. However, risk profiles of this sample differed significantly from the normative Western samples.

A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders: 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses

'The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the highest Youden index, maximizing sensitivity (72.7%) and specificity (74.2%), with 25.8% of recidivists correctly assumed to reoffend sexually and 95.7% of non-recidivists correctly assumed not to. The Static-99R instrument demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.79, CI 95% = 0.70-0.87, and OR = 1.45, CI 95% = 1.14-1.84, p < 0.001, 5-year fixed follow-up), with only marginal differences for 10-, 15-, and 20-year fixed follow-up (AUC = 0.73, 0.74, and 0.74 and OR = 1.31, 1.36, and 1.40, respectively). Calibration (quantifying risk and correspondence with the instrument's norms) was acceptable (Brier = 0.088, P/E = 0.70, E/O = 1.43), with the routine sample norms displaying a decisively better fit to the study cohort compared to the high-risk/high-need sample norms. The results affirm the recommendation that, when in doubt and where there is no recent local norm group large enough available, the Static-99R routine sample found in the evaluators' workbook should be used.

STABLE-2007 Demonstrates Predictive and Incremental Validity in Assessing Risk-Relevant Propensities for Sexual Offending: A Meta-Analysis

STABLE-2007 is a measure of risk-relevant propensities for adult males convicted of a sexual offense. This meta-analysis evaluated the ability of STABLE-2007 and its items to discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists, and the extent to which STABLE-2007 improves prediction over and above Static-99R. Based on 21 studies (12 unique samples, N = 6,955), we found that STABLE-2007 was significantly and incrementally related to sexual recidivism, violent (nonsexual) recidivism, violent (including sexual) recidivism, and any crime. Scores on STABLE-2007 items and the three STABLE-2000 attitude items also discriminated between individuals who sexually reoffended and those who did not sexually reoffend. These findings support the use of STABLE-2007 in applied risk assessment practice and the interpretation of STABLE-2007 items as indicators of treatment and supervision targets.

Estimating Lifetime and Residual Risk for Individuals Who Remain Sexual Offense Free in the Community: Practical Applications

Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remained offense free to (a) extrapolate to lifetime recidivism rates from rates observed for shorter time periods, (b) estimate the risk of sexual recidivism for individuals whose current offense is nonsexual but who have a history of sexual offending, and (c) calculate yearly reductions in risk for individuals who remain offense free in the community. In addition to their practical utility for case-specific decision making, these estimates also provide researchers an objective, empirical method of quantifying the extent to which individuals have desisted from sexual crime.