Reexamining predictors of trial outcomes in New York State's sex offender civil management process

OBJECTIVE

In 2007, New York enacted the Sex Offender Management and Treatment Act, empowering the state to civilly manage individuals who have committed sexual offenses (respondents) and are deemed to have a mental abnormality (MA) that predisposes them to sexually recidivate after serving their criminal sentences. We sought to replicate and extend a previous study (Lu et al., 2015) to identify factors predicting legal decisions.

HYPOTHESES

We predicted, on the basis of previous research, that clinical information (e.g., diagnosis) as well as empirically supported risk factors (e.g., sexual deviance) would predict trial outcomes.

METHOD

We analyzed multiple pieces of demographic, criminogenic, and clinical data on three nested subsamples of respondents on the basis of the legal process: MA consent (n = 713), MA trial (n = 316), and disposition hearing (n = 643). The binary outcomes of interest were as follows: For the MA consent subsample, it was whether the respondent waived their MA trial; for the MA trial subsample, it was whether the respondent was found at trial to have an MA; and for the disposition hearing, it was whether the respondent was ordered to inpatient or outpatient civil management.

RESULTS

The strongest predictor of waiving the trial was geographic location; respondents outside New York City and Long Island were more likely to waive their trials (ORs = 2.38-3.37). The strongest predictors of MA trial and disposition hearing outcomes were Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders diagnoses; pedophilia (ORs = 4.05-7.22) and sexual sadism (ORs = 2.68-7.03) diagnoses increased the likelihood of an MA finding and confinement order.

CONCLUSIONS

Judges and juries give significant weight to clinical information, particularly pedophilia diagnoses, when making civil management legal decisions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

What Works (or Does Not) in Community Risk Management for Persons Convicted of Sexual Offenses? A Contemporary Perspective

Contemporary data from the United States show that rates of sexual offending and reoffending have been in steady decline for decades. Nonetheless, nonprofessionals continue to view sexual violence as a community safety issue fraught with risk and uncertainty. The past 30 years have been witness to considerable research and practice in the assessment, treatment, and risk management of persons who have sexually offended. Gains have also been made in regard to prevention and citizen education. Modern day technologies include actuarial risk assessment instruments, measures of criminogenic need and treatment progress, refinements to treatment processes, and the establishment of evidence-based models. Legislative authorities in the United States and elsewhere have also attempted to affect risk in the community with, perhaps, lesser degrees of success. This article reviews current policies and practices, with a specific focus on what happens when offenders are released to the community (e.g., how public policies intended to track offenders and/or restrict their movements can negatively affect community reintegration). Comprehensive approaches to community sexual offender management are examined in addition to suggestions of unique approaches intended to ensure citizen buy-in and engagement.

The Revised Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests: Predictive and Concurrent Validity

This study examined the predictive and concurrent validity of the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests (SSPI) and its recent revision (SSPI-2), using a large sample of 2,416 sex offenders deemed not to be in need of civil management in New York State. Both SSPI and SSPI-2 scores were significantly and positively related to sexual rearrest, but the SSPI-2 provided greater discrimination in rearrest within 5 years across possible scores. Neither measure significantly added to the prediction of sexual rearrest provided by the Static-99R. We also found evidence of concurrent validity, as both measures were positively and significantly correlated with clinician ratings of sexual preoccupation, emotional identification with children, and sexual offense-related cognitions (convergent validity), but were not significantly related to clinician ratings of self-regulation problems, noncompliance with supervision, or antisocial personality (divergent validity). Overall, the results suggest that the SSPI-2 is a specific and useful screening measure of pedophilic sexual interests among sex offenders with child victims.

Predictors of the sex offender civil commitment trial outcomes in New York State

The present study analyzed sex offender civil management (i.e., civil commitment) legal proceedings in New York State and identified factors that predict trial results. Specifically, the current study compared a sample of 38 sex offenders who were released to the community after winning their civil management trials to 183 sex offenders who lost their civil management trials. Additionally, for the 183 sex offenders who lost their civil management trials, the current study compared 146 offenders who were ordered to inpatient civil commitment to 37 offenders who were deemed fit for civil management in the community. Results of the analyses indicated that sexual criminality, sexual deviance, and criminality involving child victims increased the likelihood of offenders both losing their civil management trial and being found to be in need of inpatient care, while the presence of variables associated with nonsexual criminality increased the likelihood of offenders both winning their civil management trials and being deemed fit for management in the community. The findings of this study provide guidance for psychiatric examiners who testify in civil management legal proceedings, as well as for legal professionals specializing in civil management cases.

Women convicted of promoting prostitution of a minor are different from women convicted of traditional sexual offenses: a brief research report

Some jurisdictions have legally decreed that certain nonsexual offenses (e.g., promoting prostitution of a minor, arson, burglary) can be considered sexual offenses. Offenders convicted of these crimes can be subjected to sexual offender-specific social control policies such as registration, as well as be included in sexual offender research such as recidivism studies. No studies, however, have systematically examined differences and similarities between this new class of sexual offenders and more traditional sexual offenders. The current study used a sample of 94 women convicted of sexual offenses to investigate whether women convicted of promoting prostitution of a minor differed on demographic and criminogenic features from those convicted of more traditional sexual offenses. Results show that women convicted of promoting prostitution offenses have criminal histories more consistent with general criminality and exhibit more general antisocial features than women convicted of traditional sexual offenses. These results support the notion that the inclusion of legally defined sexual offenders with traditional ones obscures important differences in criminogenic features among these women.

Failure-to-register laws and public safety: an examination of risk factors and sex offense recidivism

The goals of this study were to describe the characteristics of a sample of sex offenders charged with failure to register (FTR) in New York State, compare the FTR and non-FTR groups on relevant risk factors, identify risk factors associated with failing to register, and investigate the relationship between registration noncompliance and both general and sexual rearrest. FTR offenders were found to be younger, more likely to be a minority race, and have more extensive and varied prior criminal histories as well as a record of supervision violations. Results also indicated that FTR was more strongly correlated with nonsexual recidivism (r = .44) than sexual recidivism (r = .09). FTR contributed to the likelihood of sexual recidivism for rapists of adult victims, but not for sex offenders with child victims, and occurred in combination with a history of prior sexual crimes and versatility in criminal offending.

Evaluating New York State’s Sex Offender Management and Treatment Act

The current study evaluated New York State’s sex offender civil management screening process. Specifically, the study sought to (a) determine which variables contributed significantly to offenders being deemed high risk and receiving a psychiatric examination, and (b) assess the likely public safety impact of civil management by examining the recidivism rates of a historical sample of offenders matched to Sex Offender Management and Treatment Act–reviewed offenders on variables important to the civil management screening outcome. Results of the screening analysis indicated the civil management risk assessment process places the most emphasis on variables empirically established to be related to sexual recidivism risk, such as the offender’s Static-99 score and whether the offender had a male victim. Results of the public safety impact analysis indicated that the review process appears to be accurately identifying the highest risk offenders, thereby likely increasing public safety.

Female sex offender recidivism: a large-scale empirical analysis

Using a sample of 1,466 females convicted of a sexual offense in New York State, the current study explored the following: (a) offending prior to the commission of the offenders' first sexual offense, (b) rates of recidivism following their first sexual offense conviction, and (c) factors associated with the likelihood of sexual recidivism. Results showed the recidivism rates of female sex offenders to be lower than those of male sex offenders for all types of recidivism studied (any rearrest, felony rearrest, violent [including violent sexual] felony rearrest, and sexual rearrest). Several significant differences were found between the group of female sex offenders who sexually recidivated and the group who did not, including crime of first sexual conviction and measures of prior offending.

The Adam Walsh Act

With the enactment of the Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act (AWA), states are required to standardize their registration and community notification practices by categorizing sex offenders into three-tier levels in the interest of increasing public safety. No empirical research, however, has investigated whether implementation of the AWA is likely to increase public safety. Using a sample of registered sex offenders in New York State, the current study examined the effectiveness of the Adam Walsh-tier system to classify offenders by likelihood of recidivism. Results indicated that the AWA falls short of increasing public safety. In fact, registered sex offenders classified by AWA as Tier 1 (lowest risk) were rearrested for both nonsexual and sexual offenses more than sex offenders in Tier 2 (moderate risk) or Tier 3 (highest risk).

Female and male sex offenders: a comparison of recidivism patterns and risk factors

Few studies have empirically validated the assertion that female and male sex offenders are vastly different. Therefore, utilizing a matched sample of 780 female and male sex offenders in New York State, the current study explored differences and similarities of recidivism patterns and risk factors for the two offender groups. Results suggested that male sex offenders were significantly more likely than female sex offenders to be rearrested for both sexual and nonsexual offenses. However, limited differences in terms of risk factors between female and male sex offenders were found.

Typology of female sex offenders: a test of Vandiver and Kercher

Using all 390 female sex offenders registered in New York State, this study attempted to test the analyses and findings of Vandiver and Kercher (2004). Although the current sample varied geographically from Vandiver and Kercher's sample, they were remarkably similar on key demographic variables (e.g., offender age and race, victim age), allowing for close comparison of the findings. Results of the hierarchical loglinear modeling analysis reinforced the importance of variables such as victim and offender ages to categorizing offenders. The present cluster analysis indicated the existence of six distinct types of female sex offender (with the clusters themselves differing substantially from those found by Vandiver and Kercher), supporting the view that female sex offenders are a heterogeneous group.