Impacts on Human Health Potentially Caused by Exposure to an Unprecedented Ostreopsis spp Bloom in the Bay of Biscay, French Basque Coast

Summer Ostreopsis blooms in San Sebastian (South-East Bay of Biscay): The importance of substrate features

During summer 2020 and 2021, harmful episodes of Ostreopsis were first reported in the Bay of Biscay, affecting the Spanish Basque coast, specifically the city of San Sebastian. This led to implement samplings during summer 2022 and 2023 within this region; two close sites distinguished, primarily, by their substrate features were selected. The abundances of Ostreopsis spp. were significantly higher at Ondarreta beach compared to La Concha beach, with the former seemingly favoured by its high water temperature, relatively lower hydrodynamics and great macroalgal coverage of its rocky substrate, observing maximum abundances of 1.86 × 106 cells/g and 1.33 × 105 cells/L in the epiphytic and planktonic samples, respectively. Finally, molecular analyses demonstrated the co-occurrence of Ostreopsis sp. 9 (Ostreopsis cf. siamensis) and Ostreopsis cf. ovata at La Concha Bay, confirming for the first time the presence of the latter on the Spanish coast of the Bay of Biscay.

Harmful Ostreopsis cf. ovata blooms could extend in time span with climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea

Fast environmental changes and high coastal human pressures and impacts threaten the Mediterranean Sea. Over the last decade, recurrent blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have been recorded in many Mediterranean beaches. These microalgae produce toxins that affect marine organisms and human health. Understanding the environmental conditions that influence the appearance and magnitude of O. cf. ovata blooms, as well as how climate change will modify its future distribution and dynamics, is crucial for predicting and managing their effects. This study investigates whether the spatio-temporal distribution of this microalga and the frequency of its blooms could be altered in future climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Western basin. For the first time, an ecological habitat model (EHM) is forced by physico-chemical climate change simulations at high-resolution, under the strong greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP8.5). It allows to characterize how O. cf. ovata may respond to projected conditions and how its distribution could shift over a wide spatial scale, in this plausible future. Before being applied to the EHM, future climate simulations are further refined by using a statistical adaptation method (Cumulative Distribution Function transform) to improve the predictions robustness. Temperature (optimum 23-26 °C), high salinity (>38 psu) and high inorganic nutrient concentrations (nitrate >0.25 mmol N·m-3 and phosphate >0.035 mmol P·m-3) drive O. cf. ovata abundances. High spatial disparities in future abundances are observed. Namely, O. cf. ovata abundances could increase on the Mediterranean coasts of France, Spain and the Adriatic Sea while a decrease is expected in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The bloom period could be extended, starting earlier and continuing later in the year. From a methodological point of view, this study highlights best practices of EHMs in the context of climate change to identify sensitive areas for current and future harmful algal blooms.