Joint Modeling of Repeated Measurements of Different Biomarkers Predicts Mortality in COVID-19 Patients in the Intensive Care Unit

Joint modeling of longitudinal and competing risks for assessing blood oxygen saturation and its association with survival outcomes in COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND

The objective of the present study is to evaluate the association between longitudinal and survival outcomes in the presence of competing risk events. To illustrate the application of joint modeling in clinical research, we assessed the blood oxygen saturation (SPO2) and its association with survival outcomes in coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we followed 300 COVID-19 patients, who were diagnosed with severe COVID-19 in the Rohani Hospital in Babol, the north of Iran from October 22, 2020 to March 5, 2021, where death was the event of interest, surviving was the competing risk event and SPO2 was the longitudinal outcome. Joint modeling analyses were compared to separate analyses for these data.

RESULT

The estimation of the association parameter in the joint modeling verified the association between longitudinal outcome SPO2 with survival outcome of death (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.33, P = 0.001) and the competing risk outcome of surviving (HR = 4.18, P < 0.001). Based on the joint modeling, longitudinal outcome (SPO2) decreased in hypertension patients (β = -0.28, P = 0.581) and increased in those with a high level of SPO2 on admission (β = 0.75, P = 0.03). Also, in the survival submodel in the joint model, the risk of death survival outcome increased in patients with diabetes comorbidity (HR = 4.38, P = 0.026).

CONCLUSION

The association between longitudinal measurements of SPO2 and survival outcomes of COVID-19 confirms that SPO2 is an important indicator in this disease. Thus, the application of this joint model can provide useful clinical evidence in the different areas of medical sciences.

Multivariate joint model under competing risks to predict death of hospitalized patients for SARS-CoV-2 infection

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several clinical prognostic scores have been proposed and evaluated in hospitalized patients, relying on variables available at admission. However, capturing data collected from the longitudinal follow-up of patients during hospitalization may improve prediction accuracy of a clinical outcome. To answer this question, 327 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and hospitalized in an academic French hospital between January and July 2020 are included in the analysis. Up to 59 biomarkers were measured from the patient admission to the time to death or discharge from hospital. We consider a joint model with multiple linear or nonlinear mixed-effects models for biomarkers evolution, and a competing risks model involving subdistribution hazard functions for the risks of death and discharge. The links are modeled by shared random effects, and the selection of the biomarkers is mainly based on the significance of the link between the longitudinal and survival parts. Three biomarkers are retained: the blood neutrophil counts, the arterial pH, and the C-reactive protein. The predictive performances of the model are evaluated with the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) for different landmark and horizon times, and compared with those obtained from a baseline model that considers only information available at admission. The joint modeling approach helps to improve predictions when sufficient information is available. For landmark 6 days and horizon of 30 days, we obtain AUC [95% CI] 0.73 [0.65, 0.81] and 0.81 [0.73, 0.89] for the baseline and joint model, respectively (p = 0.04). Statistical inference is validated through a simulation study.

Inflammatory biomarkers to predict the prognosis of acute bacterial and viral infections

Mortality in acute infections is mostly associated with sepsis, defined as 'life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection'. It remains challenging to identify the patients with increased mortality risk due to the high heterogeneity in the dysregulated host immune response and disease progression. Biomarkers reflecting different pathways involved in the inflammatory response might improve prediction of mortality risk (prognostic enrichment) among patients with acute infections by reducing heterogeneity of the host response, as well as suggest novel strategies for patient stratification and treatment (predictive enrichment) through precision medicine approaches. The predictive value of inflammatory biomarkers has been extensively investigated in bacterial infections and the recent COVID-19 pandemic caused an increased interest in inflammatory biomarkers in this viral infection. However, limited research investigated whether the prognostic potential of these biomarkers differs between bacterial and viral infections. In this narrative review, we provide an overview of the value of various inflammatory biomarkers for the prediction of mortality in bacterial and viral infections.

Diagnostic performance and longitudinal analysis of fungal biomarkers in COVID-19 associated pulmonary aspergillosis

Objectives

Galactomannan lateral flow assay (GM-LFA) is a reliable test for COVID-19 associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) diagnosis. We aimed to assess the diagnostic performance of GM-LFA with different case definitions, the association between the longitudinal measurements of serum GM-ELISA, GM-LFA, and the risk of death.

Methods

Serum and nondirected bronchial lavage (NBL) samples were periodically collected. The sensitivity and specificity analysis for GM-LFA was done in different time periods. Longitudinal analysis was done with the joint model framework.

Results

A total of 207 patients were evaluated. On the day of CAPA diagnosis, serum GM-LFA had a sensitivity of 42 % (95 % CI: 23-63) and specificity of 82 % (95 % CI: 78-84), while NBL GM-LFA had a sensitivity of 73 % (95 % CI: 45-92), specificity of 85 % (95 % CI: 76-91) for CAPA. Sensitivity decreased through the following days in both samples. Univariate joint model analysis showed that increasing GM-LFA and GM-ELISA levels were associated with increased mortality, and that effect remained same with serum GM-ELISA in multivariate joint model analysis.

Conclusion

GM-LFA, particularly in NBL samples, seems to be a reliable method for CAPA diagnosis. For detecting patients with higher risk of mortality, longitudinal measurement of serum GM-ELISA can be useful.

Cytokine levels as predictors of mortality in critically ill patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia: Case-control study nested within a cohort in Colombia

Background

High levels of different cytokines have been associated in COVID-19 as predictors of mortality; however, not all studies have found this association and its role to cause multi-organ failure and death has not been fully defined. This study aimed to investigate the association of the levels of 10 cytokines with mortality in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Materials and methods

This is a case-control study nested within a cohort of patients with COVID-19 who were on mechanical ventilation and were not hospitalized for more than 48 h across nine ICUs in Medellín, Colombia. Serum samples were collected upon admission to the ICU and 7 days later and used to measure cytokine levels.

Results

Upon admission, no differences in mortality between the cytokine levels were observed when comparisons were made quantitatively. However, in the multivariate analysis, patients with median IL-1β levels <1.365 pg/ml showed an increase in mortality (OR = 3.1; 1.24<7.71; p = 0.015). On day 7 in the ICU, IL-1β median levels were lower (0.34 vs. 2.41 pg/ml, p = 0.042) and IL-10 higher (2.08 vs. 1.05 pg/ml, p = 0.009) in patients who died. However, in the multivariate analysis, only IL-12p70 was associated with mortality (OR = 0.23; 0.07<0.73; p = 0.012). The mean difference in the levels between day 1 and day 7 decreased in both IFN-γ (3.939 pg/ml, p < 0.039) and in IL-18 (16.312 pg/ml, p < 0.014) in the patients who died. A low IL-1β/IL-10 ratio was associated with mortality on both day 1 and day 7, while an IL-1β/IL-10 ratio below the cut-off on day 7 was associated with decreased survival. The lowest TNFα/IL-10 ratio was associated with mortality only on day 7.

Conclusion

At the time of admission, patients with median IL-1β levels lower than 1.365 pg/ml had increased mortality. An IL-1β/IL-10 ratio <2 at day 7 and IL-12p70 levels >1.666 pg/ml was associated with decreased survival.