Prognostic models for predicting clinical disease progression, worsening and activity in people with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system that affects millions of people worldwide. The disease course varies greatly across individuals and many disease-modifying treatments with different safety and efficacy profiles have been developed recently. Prognostic models evaluated and shown to be valid in different settings have the potential to support people with MS and their physicians during the decision-making process for treatment or disease/life management, allow stratified and more precise interpretation of interventional trials, and provide insights into disease mechanisms. Many researchers have turned to prognostic models to help predict clinical outcomes in people with MS; however, to our knowledge, no widely accepted prognostic model for MS is being used in clinical practice yet.

OBJECTIVES

To identify and summarise multivariable prognostic models, and their validation studies for quantifying the risk of clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity in adults with MS.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from January 1996 until July 2021. We also screened the reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews, and references citing the included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all statistically developed multivariable prognostic models aiming to predict clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity, as measured by disability, relapse, conversion to definite MS, conversion to progressive MS, or a composite of these in adult individuals with MS. We also included any studies evaluating the performance of (i.e. validating) these models. There were no restrictions based on language, data source, timing of prognostication, or timing of outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Pairs of review authors independently screened titles/abstracts and full texts, extracted data using a piloted form based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), assessed risk of bias using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST), and assessed reporting deficiencies based on the checklist items in Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD). The characteristics of the included models and their validations are described narratively. We planned to meta-analyse the discrimination and calibration of models with at least three external validations outside the model development study but no model met this criterion. We summarised between-study heterogeneity narratively but again could not perform the planned meta-regression.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 57 studies, from which we identified 75 model developments, 15 external validations corresponding to only 12 (16%) of the models, and six author-reported validations. Only two models were externally validated multiple times. None of the identified external validations were performed by researchers independent of those that developed the model. The outcome was related to disease progression in 39 (41%), relapses in 8 (8%), conversion to definite MS in 17 (18%), and conversion to progressive MS in 27 (28%) of the 96 models or validations. The disease and treatment-related characteristics of included participants, and definitions of considered predictors and outcome, were highly heterogeneous amongst the studies. Based on the publication year, we observed an increase in the percent of participants on treatment, diversification of the diagnostic criteria used, an increase in consideration of biomarkers or treatment as predictors, and increased use of machine learning methods over time. Usability and reproducibility All identified models contained at least one predictor requiring the skills of a medical specialist for measurement or assessment. Most of the models (44; 59%) contained predictors that require specialist equipment likely to be absent from primary care or standard hospital settings. Over half (52%) of the developed models were not accompanied by model coefficients, tools, or instructions, which hinders their application, independent validation or reproduction. The data used in model developments were made publicly available or reported to be available on request only in a few studies (two and six, respectively). Risk of bias We rated all but one of the model developments or validations as having high overall risk of bias. The main reason for this was the statistical methods used for the development or evaluation of prognostic models; we rated all but two of the included model developments or validations as having high risk of bias in the analysis domain. None of the model developments that were externally validated or these models' external validations had low risk of bias. There were concerns related to applicability of the models to our research question in over one-third (38%) of the models or their validations. Reporting deficiencies Reporting was poor overall and there was no observable increase in the quality of reporting over time. The items that were unclearly reported or not reported at all for most of the included models or validations were related to sample size justification, blinding of outcome assessors, details of the full model or how to obtain predictions from it, amount of missing data, and treatments received by the participants. Reporting of preferred model performance measures of discrimination and calibration was suboptimal.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence is not sufficient for recommending the use of any of the published prognostic prediction models for people with MS in clinical routine today due to lack of independent external validations. The MS prognostic research community should adhere to the current reporting and methodological guidelines and conduct many more state-of-the-art external validation studies for the existing or newly developed models.

Prediction of Conversion from Clinically Isolated Syndrome to Multiple Sclerosis According to Baseline Characteristics: A Prospective Study

Objective

Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is a clinical state that proceeds with inflammation and demyelination, suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the central nervous system in the absence of other alternative diagnoses. The purpose of this study was to determine in a prospective cohort, the predictor factors in conversion from CIS to MS on the basis of clinical, magnetic resonance (MR) imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) findings.

Methods

Forty-one CIS patients were included in this study and followed up for at least two years.

Results

Clinically, polysymptomatic or sensorial involvement, good prognostic factors and complete response to pulse therapy were found to be of prognostic value in conversion to MS. A greater presence of oligoclonal bands in CSF was identified in the converted group (92.8%). In terms of localization, presence of callosal lesion (71.4%), periventricular lesion (97.1%), Gd-enhanced lesion (48.6%), black hole (54.2%) and brainstem lesion (57.1%) was statistically significant in terms of conversion to MS.

Conclusion

A carefully performed neurological assessment of symptoms and signs, and evaluation of lesions on MR combined with CSF findings are important for identifying the risk of conversion to MS. This information may be useful when considering treatment in CIS patients instead of waiting for conversion to MS.

The complex relationship between oligoclonal bands, lymphocytes in the cerebrospinal fluid, and immunoglobulin G antibodies in multiple sclerosis: Indication of serum contribution

Introduction

Intrathecal immunoglobulin G (IgG) and oligoclonal bands (OCBs) are the most consistent and characteristic features of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). OCBs in MS are considered products of clonally expanded B cells in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), representing the sum of contributions from B cells in the brain. However, large amounts of IgG can be eluted from MS plaques in which lymphocytes are absent, and there is no correlation between levels of plaque-associated IgG and the presence of lymphocytes. It is calculated that it would take 3.2 billion lymphocytes to generate such large amounts of intrathecal IgG (30 mg in 500 ml CSF) in MS patients. Therefore, circulating lymphocytes in CSF could only account for <0.1% of the extra IgG in MS.

Methods

We analyzed clinical laboratory parameters from sera and CSF of 115 patients including 91 patients with MS and 24 patients with other inflammatory central nervous system (CNS) disorders (IC). We investigated the relationship between oligoclonal bands, IgG antibodies, CSF cells, IgG Index, albumin, and total protein.

Results

MS patients have significantly elevated serum concentrations of IgG antibodies, albumin, and total protein, lower levels of lymphocytes, albumin, and total protein in the cerebrospinal fluid, but no difference in CSF IgG concentration compared to those with other inflammatory neurological disorders. Furthermore, in MS there was no linear relationship between the numbers of OCBs, CSF lymphocytes, CSF IgG, and IgG Index, and between serum IgG and serum albumin, but significant correlation between IgG in CSF and serum, and between CSF IgG and CSF albumin.

Conclusion

There are unique differences between MS and patients with other inflammatory neurological disorders. Our data suggest that in MS patient (a) B cells and their products in the CSF may not be the sole source of intrathecal IgG; (b) oligoclonal bands may not be the products of single B cell clones in the CSF; and (c) there is a strong connection between serum components in the peripheral circulation and the central nervous system.

Western blot patterns of serum autoantibodies against optic nerve antigens in dogs with goniodysgenesis-related glaucoma

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether differences existed between clinically normal dogs and dogs with goniodysgenesis-related glaucoma (GDRG) in serum autoantibodies against optic nerve antigens.

ANIMALS

16 dogs with GDRG, 17 healthy dogs with unremarkable pectinate ligament and iridocorneal angle morphology, and 13 euthanized dogs with no major ocular abnormalities or underlying diseases.

PROCEDURES

Western blotting was performed with optic nerve extracts from the euthanized dogs as an antigen source and serum from clinically normal dogs and dogs with GDRG as a primary antibody (autoantibody) source. Blots were evaluated for presence and density of bands.

RESULTS

Multiple bands were identified on western blots from all dogs with GDRG and all clinically normal dogs, with a high degree of variability among individual dogs. Dogs with GDRG were significantly more likely than healthy dogs to have bands present at 38, 40, and 68 kDa. Dogs with GDRG had significant increases in autoreactivity at 40 and 53 kDa and a significant decrease in autoreactivity at 48 kDa.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Significant differences in serum autoantibodies against optic nerve antigens were found in dogs with versus without GDRG. Although it remains unclear whether these differences were part of the pathogenesis of disease or were sequelae to glaucomatous changes, these findings provide support for the hypothesis that immune-mediated mechanisms play a role in the development or progression of GDRG. However, the high degree of variability among individual dogs and the considerable overlap between groups suggest that the clinical usefulness of this technique for distinguishing dogs with GDRG from clinically normal dogs is likely limited.

Novel cerebrospinal fluid and serum autoantibody targets for clinically isolated syndrome

Limited information is available on the identity of antigens targeted by antibodies present in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). The aim of this study was to identify novel antigens for CIS and investigate their prognostic potential to predict conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS). We applied serological antigen selection (SAS) to identify antigens interacting with antibodies present in the pooled CSF from four CIS patients, who developed MS. Antibody reactivity towards CIS antigens identified by SAS was tested in CSF and serum from patients with CIS (n = 123/n = 108), MS (n = 65/n = 44), and other (inflammatory) neurological diseases (n = 75/n = 38) as well as in healthy control sera (n = 44). Using SAS, a panel of six novel CIS candidate antigens was identified. CSF antibody reactivity was detected in both CIS and relapsing-remitting (RR) MS. Serum reactivity was significantly increased in CIS and RR-MS as compared with controls (p = 0.03). For two antigens, the frequency of antibody-positive patients was higher in CIS patients who converted to MS as compared with CIS patients without conversion. We identified novel CIS antigens to which antibody reactivity was primarily detected in CIS and RR-MS as compared to controls. Possible prognostic potential could be demonstrated for two antigens.

The effect of gender in clinically isolated syndrome (CIS): a meta-analysis

Background/Objective: A clinically isolated syndrome compatible with demyelination (CIS) is the initial presentation for the majority of people that go on to develop multiple sclerosis (MS). There has previously been little work examining the effect of gender on the development and progression of CIS.

Methods: Data from observational studies of CIS were used. In total, 33 suitable studies with 4732 subjects were identified.

Results: The overall relative risk (RR) of CIS in females compared with males was 2.12 (95% CI 1.94–2.32). The RR of females developing MS following CIS was 1.20 (95% CI 0.98–1.46) compared with males.

Conclusions: These data imply that the gender bias seen in MS is caused by factors acting early in the disease process.

Primed status of transitional B cells associated with their presence in the cerebrospinal fluid in early phases of multiple sclerosis

In the present study we showed that transitional B cells of patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RR-MS) are reduced in the peripheral blood (PB) (5.5- and 3.7-fold, respectively). In addition, these cells appeared to up-regulate different integrins (α4 and β1). These observations were associated with a primed cellular status, confirmed by an increased proportion of circulating CD80(+) transitional B cells. Interestingly, these results correlate with presence of transitional B cells in the CSF. Furthermore, these cells were absent in the CSF of individuals with other inflammatory neurological disease, and their levels in paired PB and CD80 expression were normal. Altogether, our data revealed that a differential primed status of transitional B cells is a characteristic feature of early phases of MS disease, and this functional status is associated with the ability of these cells to cross the blood-CSF barrier.