Prospective study validating a multidimensional treatment decision score predicting the 24-month outcome in untreated patients with clinically isolated syndrome and early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, the ProVal-MS study

INTRODUCTION

In Multiple Sclerosis (MS), patients´ characteristics and (bio)markers that reliably predict the individual disease prognosis at disease onset are lacking. Cohort studies allow a close follow-up of MS histories and a thorough phenotyping of patients. Therefore, a multicenter cohort study was initiated to implement a wide spectrum of data and (bio)markers in newly diagnosed patients.

METHODS

ProVal-MS (Prospective study to validate a multidimensional decision score that predicts treatment outcome at 24 months in untreated patients with clinically isolated syndrome or early Relapsing-Remitting-MS) is a prospective cohort study in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) or Relapsing-Remitting (RR)-MS (McDonald 2017 criteria), diagnosed within the last two years, conducted at five academic centers in Southern Germany. The collection of clinical, laboratory, imaging, and paraclinical data as well as biosamples is harmonized across centers. The primary goal is to validate (discrimination and calibration) the previously published DIFUTURE MS-Treatment Decision score (MS-TDS). The score supports clinical decision-making regarding the options of early (within 6 months after study baseline) platform medication (Interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl/diroximel fumarate, teriflunomide), or no immediate treatment (> 6 months after baseline) of patients with early RR-MS and CIS by predicting the probability of new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (MRIs) between 6 and 24 months. Further objectives are refining the MS-TDS score and providing data to identify new markers reflecting disease course and severity. The project also provides a technical evaluation of the ProVal-MS cohort within the IT-infrastructure of the DIFUTURE consortium (Data Integration for Future Medicine) and assesses the efficacy of the data sharing techniques developed.

PERSPECTIVE

Clinical cohorts provide the infrastructure to discover and to validate relevant disease-specific findings. A successful validation of the MS-TDS will add a new clinical decision tool to the armamentarium of practicing MS neurologists from which newly diagnosed MS patients may take advantage. Trial registration ProVal-MS has been registered in the German Clinical Trials Register, `Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien` (DRKS)-ID: DRKS00014034, date of registration: 21 December 2018; https://drks.de/search/en/trial/DRKS00014034.

Endovascular Treatment for Acute Isolated Internal Carotid Artery Occlusion : A Propensity Score Matched Multicenter Study

PURPOSE

The benefit of endovascular treatment (EVT) in patients with acute symptomatic isolated occlusion of the internal carotid artery (ICA) without involvement of the middle and anterior cerebral arteries is unclear. We aimed to compare clinical and safety outcomes of best medical treatment (BMT) versus EVT + BMT in patients with stroke due to isolated ICA occlusion.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective multicenter study involving patients with isolated ICA occlusion between January 2016 and December 2020. We stratified patients by BMT versus EVT and matched the groups using propensity score matching (PSM). We assessed the effect of treatment strategy on favorable outcome (modified Rankin scale ≤ 2) 90 days after treatment and compared reduction in NIHSS score at discharge, rates of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) and 3‑month mortality.

RESULTS

In total, we included 149 patients with isolated ICA occlusion. To address imbalances, we matched 45 patients from each group using PSM. The rate of favorable outcomes at 90 days was 56% for EVT and 38% for BMT (odds ratio, OR 1.89, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.84-4.24; p = 0.12). Patients treated with EVT showed a median reduction in NIHSS score at discharge of 6 points compared to 1 point for BMT patients (p = 0.02). Rates of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (7% vs. 4%; p = 0.66) and 3‑month mortality (11% vs. 13%; p = 0.74) did not differ between treatment groups. Periprocedural complications of EVT with early neurological deterioration occurred in 7% of cases.

CONCLUSION

Although the benefit on functional outcome did not reach statistical significance, the results for NIHSS score improvement, and safety support the use of EVT in patients with stroke due to isolated ICA occlusion.

[Results of PCR Pool Testing In Primary and Special Needs Schools In Bavaria For The School Year 2021/2022: Sentinel Surveillance In Face-To-Face Teaching During The Sars-CoV-2 Pandemic]

In the school years 2019/20 and 2020/21, children were physically, psychologically, and socially stressed by school closures caused by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. To ensure attendance with optimal infection protection, PCR pool testing was conducted during the 2021/22 school year at Bavarian elementary schools and schools for pupils with special needs for timely detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study analyzes the results of PCR pool testing over time stratified by region, school type, and age of children. The data were obtained from classes in elementary and special needs schools, involving pupils aged 6 to 11 years, who participated in the Bavaria-wide PCR pool testing from 09/20/21 to 04/08/22. Samples were collected twice weekly, consisting of PCR pool samples and individual PCR samples, which were only evaluated in case of a positive pool test. A class was considered positive if at least one individual sample from that class was positive within a calendar week (CW). A school (class) was considered to be infection-prone if three or more classes in that school (students in that class) were positive within a CW. The data included 2,430 elementary schools (339 special needs schools) with 23,021 (2,711) classes and 456,478 (29,200) children. A total of 1,157,617 pools (of which 3.37% were positive) and 724,438 individual samples (6.76% positive) were analyzed. Larger schools exhibited higher PR compared to smaller schools. From January 2022, the Omicron variant led to a massive increase in PR across Bavaria. The incidence rates per 100,000 person-weeks within the individual school samples were significantly lower than the concurrently reported age-specific and general infection incidences in the overall Bavarian population. PCR pool testing revealed relatively few positive pools, with an average of four children per one hundred pools testing positive. Schools and classes were rarely considered infection-prone, even during periods of high incidences outside of schools. The combination of PCR pool testing and hygiene measures allowed for a largely safe in-person education for pupils in primary and special needs schools in the school year 2021/22.

Long-term benefits and harms of early colorectal cancer screening in German individuals with familial cancer risk

Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) may benefit from early screening with colonoscopy or immunologic fecal occult blood testing (iFOBT). We systematically evaluated the benefit-harm trade-offs of various screening strategies differing by screening test (colonoscopy or iFOBT), interval (iFOBT: annual/biennial; colonoscopy: 10-yearly) and age at start (30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 years) and end of screening (65, 70 and 75 years) offered to individuals identified with familial CRC risk in Germany. A Markov-state-transition model was developed and used to estimate health benefits (CRC-related deaths avoided, life-years gained [LYG]), potential harms (eg, associated with additional colonoscopies) and incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR) for each strategy. Both benefits and harms increased with earlier start and shorter intervals of screening. When screening started before age 50, 32-36 CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons were avoided with colonoscopy and 29-34 with iFOBT screening, compared to 29-31 (colonoscopy) and 28-30 (iFOBT) CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons when starting age 50 or older, respectively. For iFOBT screening, the IHBRs expressed as additional colonoscopies per LYG were one (biennial, age 45-65 vs no screening), four (biennial, age 35-65), six (biennial, age 30-70) and 34 (annual, age 30-54; biennial, age 55-75). Corresponding IHBRs for 10-yearly colonoscopy were four (age 55-65), 10 (age 45-65), 15 (age 35-65) and 29 (age 30-70). Offering screening with colonoscopy or iFOBT to individuals with familial CRC risk before age 50 is expected to be beneficial. Depending on the accepted IHBR threshold, 10-yearly colonoscopy or alternatively biennial iFOBT from age 30 to 70 should be recommended for this target group.

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to account for evidence and uncertainty in the modeling of infectious diseases: An application to COVID-19

Infectious disease models can serve as critical tools to predict the development of cases and associated healthcare demand and to determine the set of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that is most effective in slowing the spread of an infectious agent. Current approaches to estimate NPI effects typically focus on relatively short time periods and either on the number of reported cases, deaths, intensive care occupancy, or hospital occupancy as a single indicator of disease transmission. In this work, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that integrates multiple outcomes and complementary sources of information in the estimation of the true and unknown number of infections while accounting for time-varying underreporting and weekday-specific delays in reported cases and deaths, allowing us to estimate the number of infections on a daily basis rather than having to smooth the data. To address dynamic changes occurring over long periods of time, we account for the spread of new variants, seasonality, and time-varying differences in host susceptibility. We implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to conduct Bayesian inference and illustrate the proposed approach with data on COVID-19 from 20 European countries. The approach shows good performance on simulated data and produces posterior predictions that show a good fit to reported cases, deaths, hospital, and intensive care occupancy.

Colorectal Cancer Screening for Persons With a Positive Family History—Evaluation of the FARKOR Program for the Secondary Prevention of Colorectal Cancer in Persons Aged 25 to 50

BACKGROUND

Persons with a positive family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) are more likely than others to develop CRC and are also younger at the onset of the disease. Nonetheless, the German Federal Joint Committee (G-BA, Gemeinsamer Bundes - ausschuss) recommends screening all persons aged 50 and above regardless of their family history. FARKOR was a project supported by the Innovation Fund of the G-BA to study the feasibility, efficacy, and safety of a risk-adapted early detection program for CRC among persons aged 25 to 50 without any specific past medical history.

METHODS

Physicians in private practice in Bavaria documented their activities relating to FARKOR online. The FARKOR process comprised a declaration of consent, a simplified family history for CRC, an optional, more comprehensive family history, a counseling session for participatory decision-making on further measures, and various modalities of screening (an immunological fecal occult blood test [iFOBT], colonoscopy, or no screening). Related physician activities outside the FARKOR process were assessed by record linkage between study data and data of the patients' health insurance carriers.

RESULTS

The simplified family history was documented in 25 847 persons and positive for CRC in 5769 (22.3%). 3232 persons had a more comprehensive family history, among whom 2054 (63.6%) participated in screening measures. 1595 underwent colonoscopy; 278 persons who had already undergone colonoscopy in the preceding five years were excluded from the analysis. Colonoscopy revealed adenoma in 232 persons (17,6 %), advanced adenoma in 78 (5.9%) and carcinoma in 4 (0.3%). There were no serious complications.

CONCLUSION

The detection rates in this study corresponded to those of persons aged 55 to 59 in the current early detection program. Despite numerous problems in the performance of the study (inconsistencies in documentation, external performance of screening measures on program participants), the results support the feasibility of a risk-adapted early detection program in the young target population with a family history of CRC.

Antibiotic use in pediatric acute care hospitals: an analysis of antibiotic consumption data from Germany, 2013-2020

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) programs are effective tools for improving antibiotic prescription quality. Their implementation requires the regular surveillance of antibiotic consumption at the patient and institutional level. Our study captured and analyzed antibiotic consumption density (ACD) for hospitalized pediatric patients.

METHOD

We collected antibacterial drug consumption data for 2020 from hospital pharmacies at 113 pediatric departments of acute care hospitals in Germany. ACD was calculated as defined daily dose (DDD, WHO/ATC Index 2019) per 100 patient days (pd). In addition, we analyzed the trends in antibiotic use during 2013-2020.

RESULTS

In 2020, median ACD across all participating hospitals was 26.7 DDD/100 pd, (range: 10.1-79.2 DDD/100 pd). It was higher at university vs. non-university hospitals (38.6 vs. 25.2 DDD/100 pd, p < 0.0001). The highest use densities were seen on oncology wards and intensive care units at university hospitals (67.3 vs. 38.4 DDD/100 pd). During 2013-2020, overall ACD declined (- 10%) and cephalosporin prescriptions also decreased (- 36%). In 2020, cephalosporins nevertheless remained the most commonly dispensed class of antibiotics. Interhospital variability in cephalosporin/penicillin ratio was substantial. Antibiotics belonging to WHO AWaRe "Watch" and "Reserve" categories, including broad-spectrum penicillins (+ 31%), linezolid (+ 121%), and glycopeptides (+ 43%), increased over time.

CONCLUSION

Significant heterogeneity in ACD and prescription of different antibiotic classes as well as high prescription rates for cephalosporins and an increased use of reserve antibiotics indicate improvable antibiotic prescribing quality. AMS programs should urgently prioritize these issues to reduce antimicrobial resistance.

Effect of blood pressure-lowering agents on microvascular function in people with small vessel diseases (TREAT-SVDs): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, crossover trial

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is the leading risk factor for cerebral small vessel disease. We aimed to determine whether antihypertensive drug classes differentially affect microvascular function in people with small vessel disease.

METHODS

We did a multicentre, open-label, randomised crossover trial with blinded endpoint assessment at five specialist centres in Europe. We included participants aged 18 years or older with symptomatic sporadic small vessel disease or cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL) and an indication for antihypertensive treatment. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to one of three sequences of antihypertensive treatment using a computer-generated multiblock randomisation, stratified by study site and patient group. A 2-week washout period was followed by three 4-week periods of oral monotherapy with amlodipine, losartan, or atenolol at approved doses. The primary endpoint was change in cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) determined by blood oxygen level-dependent MRI response to hypercapnic challenge in normal-appearing white matter from the end of washout to the end of each treatment period. Efficacy analyses were done by intention-to-treat principles in all randomly assigned participants who had at least one valid assessment for the primary endpoint, and analyses were done separately for participants with sporadic small vessel disease and CADASIL. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03082014, and EudraCT, 2016-002920-10, and is terminated.

FINDINGS

Between Feb 22, 2018, and April 28, 2022, 75 participants with sporadic small vessel disease (mean age 64·9 years [SD 9·9]) and 26 with CADASIL (53·1 years [7·0]) were enrolled and randomly assigned to treatment. 79 participants (62 with sporadic small vessel disease and 17 with CADASIL) entered the primary efficacy analysis. Change in CVR did not differ between study drugs in participants with sporadic small vessel disease (mean change in CVR 1·8 × 10-4%/mm Hg [SE 20·1; 95% CI -37·6 to 41·2] for amlodipine; 16·7 × 10-4%/mm Hg [20·0; -22·3 to 55·8] for losartan; -7·1 × 10-4%/mm Hg [19·6; -45·5 to 31·1] for atenolol; poverall=0·39) but did differ in patients with CADASIL (15·7 × 10-4%/mm Hg [SE 27·5; 95% CI -38·3 to 69·7] for amlodipine; 19·4 × 10-4%/mm Hg [27·9; -35·3 to 74·2] for losartan; -23·9 × 10-4%/mm Hg [27·5; -77·7 to 30·0] for atenolol; poverall=0·019). In patients with CADASIL, pairwise comparisons showed that CVR improved with amlodipine compared with atenolol (-39·6 × 10-4%/mm Hg [95% CI -72·5 to -6·6; p=0·019) and with losartan compared with atenolol (-43·3 × 10-4%/mm Hg [-74·3 to -12·3]; p=0·0061). No deaths occurred. Two serious adverse events were recorded, one while taking amlodipine (diarrhoea with dehydration) and one while taking atenolol (fall with fracture), neither of which was related to study drug intake.

INTERPRETATION

4 weeks of treatment with amlodipine, losartan, or atenolol did not differ in their effects on cerebrovascular reactivity in people with sporadic small vessel disease but did result in differential treatment effects in patients with CADASIL. Whether antihypertensive drug classes differentially affect clinical outcomes in people with small vessel diseases requires further research.

FUNDING

EU Horizon 2020 programme.

[Newborn hearing screening in Germany-results of the 2011/2012 and 2017/2018 evaluations]

BACKGROUND

Newborn hearing screening (NHS) was introduced nationwide by the Federal Joint Committee (Gemeinsamer Bundesausschuss, G‑BA) in 2009. In this process, quality targets were also set in the pediatrics directive. In order to review the quality NHS in Germany, the G‑BA commissioned a consortium to conduct an initial evaluation for the years 2011 and 2012 and a follow-up evaluation for 2017 and 2018.

METHODS

The evaluations were based on NHS screening parameters (Sammelstatistiken) that must be documented by all obstetrics and neonatology departments as NHS providers and can also be compiled through cooperation with hearing screening centers (HSCs). Additional data were collected through questionnaires and interviews and routine data were used to evaluate the screening process.

RESULTS

In 13 federal states, a total of 15 HSCs are involved in the screening process. Across Germany, an NHS screening rate of 86.1% was documented in 2018 (82.4% in 2012), but this differed significantly between the federal states. The specified quality targets could not yet be implemented everywhere. For example, only less than half of the obstetric departments achieved the specified screening rate of over 95%. A comparison of data from the follow-up evaluation and the first evaluation showed that the structural quality of NHS had improved, while the process quality remained the same or had deteriorated. The refer rate (children who were discharged without passing the screening) increased from 5.3% to 6.0%.

DISCUSSION

To improve the quality of NHS, HSCs should be established nationwide and a second screening should be carried out more consistently before discharge in the case of a refer result in the initial screening.

Effectiveness of an individually tailored complex intervention to improve activities and participation in nursing home residents with joint contractures (JointConEval): a multicentre pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to examine the effects of the individually tailored complex intervention Participation Enabling Care in Nursing (PECAN) on activities and participation of residents with joint contractures.

DESIGN

Multicentre pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

35 nursing homes in Germany (August 2018-February 2020).

PARTICIPANTS

562 nursing home residents aged ≥65 years with ≥1 major joint contracture (303 intervention group, 259 control group).

INTERVENTIONS

Nursing homes were randomised to PECAN (18 clusters) or optimised standard care (17 clusters) with researcher-concealed cluster allocation by facsimile. The intervention targeted impairments in activities and participation. Implementation included training and support for selected staff. Control group clusters received brief information.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary endpoint PaArticular Scales combined residents' activities and participation at 12 months. The secondary outcome comprised quality of life. Safety measures were falls, fall-related consequences and physical restraints. Residents, staff and researchers were unblinded. Data collection, data entry and statistical analysis were blinded. Primary analyses were intention-to-treat at cluster level and individual level using a generalised mixed-effect regression model and imputation of missing data.

RESULTS

Primary outcome analyses included 301 intervention group residents and 259 control group residents. The mean change on the Activities Scale was -1.47 points (SD 12.2) in the intervention group and 0.196 points (SD 12.5) in the control group and -3.87 points (SD 19.7) vs -3.18 points (SD 20.8) on the Participation Scale. The mean differences of changes between the groups were not statistically significant: Activities Scale: -1.72 (97.5% CI -6.05 to 2.61); Participation Scale: -1.24 (97.5% CI -7.02 to 4.45). We found no significant difference in the secondary outcome and no effects on safety measures.

CONCLUSION

The complex intervention did not improve the activities and participation of nursing home residents on the PaArticular Scales at 12 months. Current nursing conditions in Germany may hamper implementation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

DRKS00015185.

Examination of betahistine bioavailability in combination with the monoamine oxidase B inhibitor, selegiline, in humans-a non-randomized, single-sequence, two-period titration, open label single-center phase 1 study (PK-BeST)

Background

Betahistine was registered in Europe in the 1970s and approved in more than 80 countries as a first-line treatment for Menière's disease. It has been administered to more than 150 million patients. However, according to a Cochrane systematic review of betahistine and recent meta-analyses, there is insufficient evidence to say whether betahistine has any effect in the currently approved dosages of up to 48 mg/d. A combination with the monoamine oxidase B (MAO-B) inhibitor, selegiline, may increase the bioavailability of betahistine to levels similar to the well-established combination of L-DOPA with carbidopa or benserazide in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. We investigated the effect of selegiline on betahistine pharmacokinetics and the safety of the combination in humans.

Methods

In an investigator-initiated prospective, non-randomized, single-sequence, two-period titration, open label single-center phase 1 study, 15 healthy volunteers received three single oral dosages of betahistine (24, 48, and 96 mg in this sequence with at least 2 days' washout period) without and with selegiline (5 mg/d with a loading period of 7 days). Betahistine serum concentrations were measured over a period of 240 min at eight time points (area under the curve, AUC0-240 min). This trial is registered with EudraCT (2019-002610-39) and ClinicalTrials.gov.

Findings

In all three single betahistine dosages, selegiline increased the betahistine bioavailability about 80- to 100-fold. For instance, the mean (±SD) of the area under curve for betahistine 48 mg alone was 0.64 (+/-0.47) h*ng/mL and for betahistine plus selegiline 53.28 (+/-37.49) h*ng/mL. The half-life time of around 30 min was largely unaffected, except for the 24 mg betahistine dosage. In total, 14 mild adverse events were documented.

Interpretation

This phase 1 trial shows that the MAO-B inhibitor selegiline increases betahistine bioavailability by a factor of about 80 to 100. No safety concerns were detected. Whether the increased bioavailability has an impact on the preventive treatment of Menière's disease, acute vestibular syndrome, or post-BPPV residual dizziness has to be evaluated in placebo-controlled trials.

Clinical trial registration

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05938517?intr=betahistine%20and%20selegiline&rank=1, identifier: NCT05938517.

Prognostic models for predicting clinical disease progression, worsening and activity in people with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system that affects millions of people worldwide. The disease course varies greatly across individuals and many disease-modifying treatments with different safety and efficacy profiles have been developed recently. Prognostic models evaluated and shown to be valid in different settings have the potential to support people with MS and their physicians during the decision-making process for treatment or disease/life management, allow stratified and more precise interpretation of interventional trials, and provide insights into disease mechanisms. Many researchers have turned to prognostic models to help predict clinical outcomes in people with MS; however, to our knowledge, no widely accepted prognostic model for MS is being used in clinical practice yet.

OBJECTIVES

To identify and summarise multivariable prognostic models, and their validation studies for quantifying the risk of clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity in adults with MS.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from January 1996 until July 2021. We also screened the reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews, and references citing the included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all statistically developed multivariable prognostic models aiming to predict clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity, as measured by disability, relapse, conversion to definite MS, conversion to progressive MS, or a composite of these in adult individuals with MS. We also included any studies evaluating the performance of (i.e. validating) these models. There were no restrictions based on language, data source, timing of prognostication, or timing of outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Pairs of review authors independently screened titles/abstracts and full texts, extracted data using a piloted form based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), assessed risk of bias using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST), and assessed reporting deficiencies based on the checklist items in Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD). The characteristics of the included models and their validations are described narratively. We planned to meta-analyse the discrimination and calibration of models with at least three external validations outside the model development study but no model met this criterion. We summarised between-study heterogeneity narratively but again could not perform the planned meta-regression.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 57 studies, from which we identified 75 model developments, 15 external validations corresponding to only 12 (16%) of the models, and six author-reported validations. Only two models were externally validated multiple times. None of the identified external validations were performed by researchers independent of those that developed the model. The outcome was related to disease progression in 39 (41%), relapses in 8 (8%), conversion to definite MS in 17 (18%), and conversion to progressive MS in 27 (28%) of the 96 models or validations. The disease and treatment-related characteristics of included participants, and definitions of considered predictors and outcome, were highly heterogeneous amongst the studies. Based on the publication year, we observed an increase in the percent of participants on treatment, diversification of the diagnostic criteria used, an increase in consideration of biomarkers or treatment as predictors, and increased use of machine learning methods over time. Usability and reproducibility All identified models contained at least one predictor requiring the skills of a medical specialist for measurement or assessment. Most of the models (44; 59%) contained predictors that require specialist equipment likely to be absent from primary care or standard hospital settings. Over half (52%) of the developed models were not accompanied by model coefficients, tools, or instructions, which hinders their application, independent validation or reproduction. The data used in model developments were made publicly available or reported to be available on request only in a few studies (two and six, respectively). Risk of bias We rated all but one of the model developments or validations as having high overall risk of bias. The main reason for this was the statistical methods used for the development or evaluation of prognostic models; we rated all but two of the included model developments or validations as having high risk of bias in the analysis domain. None of the model developments that were externally validated or these models' external validations had low risk of bias. There were concerns related to applicability of the models to our research question in over one-third (38%) of the models or their validations. Reporting deficiencies Reporting was poor overall and there was no observable increase in the quality of reporting over time. The items that were unclearly reported or not reported at all for most of the included models or validations were related to sample size justification, blinding of outcome assessors, details of the full model or how to obtain predictions from it, amount of missing data, and treatments received by the participants. Reporting of preferred model performance measures of discrimination and calibration was suboptimal.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence is not sufficient for recommending the use of any of the published prognostic prediction models for people with MS in clinical routine today due to lack of independent external validations. The MS prognostic research community should adhere to the current reporting and methodological guidelines and conduct many more state-of-the-art external validation studies for the existing or newly developed models.

Stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole-brain radiotherapy in patients with 4-10 brain metastases: A nonrandomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

There is no randomized evidence comparing whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) in the treatment of multiple brain metastases. This prospective nonrandomized controlled single arm trial attempts to reduce the gap until prospective randomized controlled trial results are available.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We included patients with 4-10 brain metastases and ECOG performance status ≤ 2 from all histologies except small-cell lung cancer, germ cell tumors, and lymphoma. The retrospective WBRT-cohort was selected 2:1 from consecutive patients treated within 2012-2017. Propensity-score matching was performed to adjust for confounding factors such as sex, age, primary tumor histology, dsGPA score, and systemic therapy. SRS was performed using a LINAC-based single-isocenter technique employing prescription doses from 15-20Gyx1 at the 80% isodose line. The historical control consisted of equivalent WBRT dose regimens of either 3Gyx10 or 2.5Gyx14.

RESULTS

Patients were recruited from 2017-2020, end of follow-up was July 1st, 2021. 40 patients were recruited to the SRS-cohort and 70 patients were eligible as controls in the WBRT-cohort. Median OS, and iPFS were 10.4 months (95%-CI 9.3-NA) and 7.1 months (95%-CI 3.9-14.2) for the SRS-cohort, and 6.5 months (95%-CI 4.9-10.4), and 5.9 months (95%-CI 4.1-8.8) for the WBRT-cohort, respectively. Differences were non-significant for OS (HR: 0.65; 95%-CI 0.40-1.05; P =.074) and iPFS (P =.28). No grade III toxicities were observed in the SRS-cohort.

CONCLUSION

This trial did not meet its primary endpoint as the OS-improvement of SRS compared to WBRT was non-significant and thus superiority could not be proven. Prospective randomized trials in the era of immunotherapy and targeted therapies are warranted.

Transcranial direct current stimulation as an additional treatment to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in adults with major depressive disorder in Germany (DepressionDC): a triple-blind, randomised, sham-controlled, multicentre trial

BACKGROUND

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) has been proposed as a feasible treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD). However, meta-analytic evidence is heterogenous and data from multicentre trials are scarce. We aimed to assess the efficacy of tDCS versus sham stimulation as an additional treatment to a stable dose of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) in adults with MDD.

METHODS

The DepressionDC trial was triple-blind, randomised, and sham-controlled and conducted at eight hospitals in Germany. Patients being treated at a participating hospital aged 18-65 years were eligible if they had a diagnosis of MDD, a score of at least 15 on the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (21-item version), no response to at least one antidepressant trial in their current depressive episode, and treatment with an SSRI at a stable dose for at least 4 weeks before inclusion; the SSRI was continued at the same dose during stimulation. Patients were allocated (1:1) by fixed-blocked randomisation to receive either 30 min of 2 mA bifrontal tDCS every weekday for 4 weeks, then two tDCS sessions per week for 2 weeks, or sham stimulation at the same intervals. Randomisation was stratified by site and baseline Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) score (ie, <31 or ≥31). Participants, raters, and operators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome was change on the MADRS at week 6, analysed in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one treatment session. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02530164).

FINDINGS

Between Jan 19, 2016, and June 15, 2020, 3601 individuals were assessed for eligibility. 160 patients were included and randomly assigned to receive either active tDCS (n=83) or sham tDCS (n=77). Six patients withdrew consent and four patients were found to have been wrongly included, so data from 150 patients were analysed (89 [59%] were female and 61 [41%] were male). No intergroup difference was found in mean improvement on the MADRS at week 6 between the active tDCS group (n=77; -8·2, SD 7·2) and the sham tDCS group (n=73; -8·0, 9·3; difference 0·3 [95% CI -2·4 to 2·9]). Significantly more participants had one or more mild adverse events in the active tDCS group (50 [60%] of 83) than in the sham tDCS group (33 [43%] of 77; p=0·028).

INTERPRETATION

Active tDCS was not superior to sham stimulation during a 6-week period. Our trial does not support the efficacy of tDCS as an additional treatment to SSRIs in adults with MDD.

FUNDING

German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

The EffecTs of Amlodipine and other Blood PREssure Lowering Agents on Microvascular FuncTion in Small Vessel Diseases (TREAT-SVDs) trial: Study protocol for a randomised crossover trial

Background

Hypertension is the leading modifiable risk factor for cerebral small vessel diseases (SVDs). Yet, it is unknown whether antihypertensive drug classes differentially affect microvascular function in SVDs.

Aims

To test whether amlodipine has a beneficial effect on microvascular function when compared to either losartan or atenolol, and whether losartan has a beneficial effect when compared to atenolol in patients with symptomatic SVDs.

Design

TREAT-SVDs is an investigator-led, prospective, open-label, randomised crossover trial with blinded endpoint assessment (PROBE design) conducted at five study sites across Europe. Patients aged 18 years or older with symptomatic SVD who have an indication for antihypertensive treatment and are suffering from either sporadic SVD and a history of lacunar stroke or vascular cognitive impairment (group A) or CADASIL (group B) are randomly allocated 1:1:1 to one of three sequences of antihypertensive treatment. Patients stop their regular antihypertensive medication for a 2-week run-in period followed by 4-week periods of monotherapy with amlodipine, losartan and atenolol in random order as open-label medication in standard dose.

Outcomes

The primary outcome measure is cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) as determined by blood oxygen level dependent brain MRI signal response to hypercapnic challenge with change in CVR in normal appearing white matter as primary endpoint. Secondary outcome measures are mean systolic blood pressure (BP) and BP variability (BPv).

Discussion

TREAT-SVDs will provide insights into the effects of different antihypertensive drugs on CVR, BP, and BPv in patients with symptomatic sporadic and hereditary SVDs.

Funding

European Union's Horizon 2020 programme.

Trial registration

NCT03082014.

Regional hyperthermia with cisplatin added to gemcitabine versus gemcitabine in patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: The HEAT randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Regional hyperthermia (RHT) with cisplatin added to gemcitabine showed efficacy in gemcitabine-pre-treated patients with advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. We conducted a randomised clinical trial to investigate RHT with cisplatin added to gemcitabine (GPH) compared with gemcitabine (G) in the adjuvant setting of resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

This randomised, multicentre, open-label trial randomly assigned patients to either GPH (gemcitabine 1000 mg/m² on day 1, 15 and cisplatin 25 mg/m² with RHT on day 2, 3 and 15,16) or to G (gemcitabine 1000 mg/m² on day 1,8,15), four-weekly over six cycles. Disease-free survival (DFS) was the primary end-point. Secondary end-points included overall survival (OS) and safety.

RESULTS

A total of 117 eligible patients (median age, 63 years) were randomly allocated to treatment (57 GPH; 60 G). With a follow-up time of 56.6 months, the median DFS was 12.7 compared to 11.2 months for GPH and G, respectively (p = 0.394). Median post-recurrence survival was significantly prolonged in the GPH-group (15.3 versus 9.8 months; p = 0.031). Median OS reached 33.2 versus 25.2 months (p = 0.099) with 5-year survival rates of 28.4% versus 18.7%. Excluding eight patients who received additional capecitabine in the G-arm (investigators choice), median OS favoured GPH (p = 0.052). Adverse events CTCAE (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events) grade ≥3 occurred in 61.5% (GPH) versus 63.6% (G) of patients. Two patients in the G-group died because of treatment-related toxic effects.

CONCLUSIONS

The randomised controlled Hyperthermia European Adjuvant Trial study failed to demonstrate a significant difference in DFS. However, it suggests a difference in post-recurrence survival and a trend for improved OS.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov, number NCT01077427.

Vaccination Intention Following Receipt of Vaccine Information Through Interactive Simulation vs Text Among COVID-19 Vaccine-Hesitant Adults During the Omicron Wave in Germany

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, vaccine-hesitant adults presented with an interactive risk ratio simulation were more likely to show positive change in COVID-19 vaccination intention and benefit-to-harm assessment than those presented with a conventional text-based information format. These findings suggest that the interactive risk communication format can be an important tool in addressing vaccination hesitancy and fostering public trust.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cross-sectional study conducted online with 1255 COVID-19 vaccine-hesitant adult residents of Germany in April and May 2022, surveyed using a probability-based internet panel maintained by respondi, a research and analytics firm. Participants were randomized to 1 of 2 presentations on the benefits and adverse events associated with vaccination.

EXPOSURE

Participants were randomized to a text-based description vs an interactive simulation presenting age-adjusted absolute risks of infection, hospitalization, ICU admission, and death after exposure to coronavirus in vaccinated vs unvaccinated individuals relative to the possible adverse effects as well as additional (population-level) benefits of COVID-19 vaccination.

IMPORTANCE

Hesitancy toward COVID-19 vaccination is a major factor in stagnating uptake rates and in the risk of health care systems becoming overwhelmed.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Absolute change in respondents' COVID-19 vaccination intention category and benefit-to-harm assessment category.

OBJECTIVE

To compare an interactive risk ratio simulation (intervention) with a conventional text-based risk information format (control) and analyze change in participants' COVID-19 vaccination intention and benefit-to-harm assessment.

RESULTS

Participants were 1255 COVID-19 vaccine-hesitant residents of Germany (660 women [52.6%]; mean [SD] age, 43.6 [13.5] years). A total of 651 participants received a text-based description, and 604 participants received an interactive simulation. Relative to the text-based format, the simulation was associated with greater likelihood of positive change in vaccination intentions (19.5% vs 15.3%, respectively; absolute difference, 4.2%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.45; 95% CI, 1.07-1.96; P = .01) and benefit-to-harm assessments (32.6% vs 18.0%; absolute difference, 14.6%; aOR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.64-2.80; P < .001). Both formats were also associated with some negative change. However, the net advantage (positive - negative change) of the interactive simulation over the text-based format was 5.3 percentage points for vaccination intention (9.8% vs 4.5%) and 18.3 percentage points for benefit-to-harm assessment (25.3% vs 7.0%). Positive change in vaccination intention (but not in benefit-to-harm assessment) was associated with some demographic characteristics and attitudes to COVID-19 vaccination; negative changes were not.

Retrospective cohort study to devise a treatment decision score predicting adverse 24-month radiological activity in early multiple sclerosis

Background

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neuroinflammatory disease affecting about 2.8 million people worldwide. Disease course after the most common diagnoses of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is highly variable and cannot be reliably predicted. This impairs early personalized treatment decisions.

Objectives

The main objective of this study was to algorithmically support clinical decision-making regarding the options of early platform medication or no immediate treatment of patients with early RRMS and CIS.

Design

Retrospective monocentric cohort study within the Data Integration for Future Medicine (DIFUTURE) Consortium.

Methods

Multiple data sources of routine clinical, imaging and laboratory data derived from a large and deeply characterized cohort of patients with MS were integrated to conduct a retrospective study to create and internally validate a treatment decision score [Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Decision Score (MS-TDS)] through model-based random forests (RFs). The MS-TDS predicts the probability of no new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (cMRIs) between 6 and 24 months after the first cMRI.

Results

Data from 65 predictors collected for 475 patients between 2008 and 2017 were included. No medication and platform medication were administered to 277 (58.3%) and 198 (41.7%) patients. The MS-TDS predicted individual outcomes with a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.624. The respective RF prediction model provides patient-specific MS-TDS and probabilities of treatment success. The latter may increase by 5-20% for half of the patients if the treatment considered superior by the MS-TDS is used.

Conclusion

Routine clinical data from multiple sources can be successfully integrated to build prediction models to support treatment decision-making. In this study, the resulting MS-TDS estimates individualized treatment success probabilities that can identify patients who benefit from early platform medication. External validation of the MS-TDS is required, and a prospective study is currently being conducted. In addition, the clinical relevance of the MS-TDS needs to be established.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Specialized Breathlessness Service Versus Usual Care for Patients With Advanced Diseases

OBJECTIVES

The Munich Breathlessness Service (MBS) significantly improved control of breathlessness measured by the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ) Mastery in a randomized controlled fast track trial with waitlist group design spanning 8 weeks in Germany. This study aimed to assess the within-trial cost-effectiveness of MBS from a societal perspective.

METHODS

Data included generic (5-level version of EQ-5D) health-related quality of life and disease-specific CRQ Mastery. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated based on 5-level version of EQ-5D utilities valued with German time trade-off. Direct medical costs and productivity loss were calculated based on standardized unit costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and cost-effectiveness-acceptance curves were calculated using adjusted mean differences (AMD) in costs (gamma-distributed model) and both effect parameters (Gaussian-distributed model) and performing 1000 simultaneous bootstrap replications. Potential gender differences were investigated in stratified analyses.

RESULTS

Between March 2014 and April 2019, 183 eligible patients were enrolled. MBS intervention demonstrated significantly better effects regarding generic (AMD of QALY gains of 0.004, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0003 to 0.008) and disease-specific health-related quality of life at nonsignificantly higher costs (AMD of €605 [95% CI -1109 to 2550]). At the end of the intervention, the ICER was €152 433/QALY (95% CI -453 545 to 1 625 903) and €1548/CRQ Mastery point (95% CI -3093 to 10 168). Intervention costs were on average €357 (SD = 132). Gender-specific analyses displayed dominance for MBS in males and higher effects coupled with significantly higher costs in females.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show a high ICER for MBS. Considering dominance for MBS in males, implementing MBS on approval within the German health care system should be considered.

[Mapping Regional Differences in Infection Rates for the Coronavirus (COVID-19): Results of a Bayesian Approach to Administrative Districts of Bavaria]

BACKGROUND

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, thematic maps showing the spread of the disease have been of great public interest. From the perspective of risk communication, those maps can be problematic, since random variation or extreme values may occur and cover up the actual regional patterns. One potential solution is applying spatial smoothing methods. The aim of this study was to show changes in incidence ratios over time in Bavarian districts using spatially smoothed maps.

METHODS

Data on SARS-CoV-2 were provided by the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority on 29.10.2021 and 17.02.2022. The demographic data per district are derived from the Statistical Report of the Bavarian State Office for Statistics for 2019. Four age groups per sex (<18, 18-29, 30-64,>64 years) divided into 16 time periods (01/28/2020 to 12/31/2021) were included. Maps show standardized incidence ratios (SIR) spatially smoothed by Bayesian hierarchical modelling.

RESULTS

The SIR varied remarkably between districts. Variations occurred for each time period, showing changing regional patterns over time.

CONCLUSION

Smoothed health maps are suitable for showing trends in incidence ratios over time for COVID-19 in Bavaria and offer the advantage over traditional maps in giving more realistic estimates by including neighborhood relationships. The methodological approach can be seen as a first step to explain the regional heterogeneity in the pandemic, and to support improved risk communication.

Missing data imputation using utility-based regression and sampling approaches

Data are often missing not at random (MNAR) in scientific experiments. We treat the MNAR problem as an imbalanced learning task. Standard predictive error measures of regression (e.g., mean squared error) are not suitable for imbalanced learning problems, such as in clinical trials where extreme values tend to be MNAR. We investigate hybrid imbalanced learning approaches that combine utility-based regression (UBR) with synthetic minority oversampling technique for regression (SMOTER) in cross-sectional trial settings. UBR optimizes the product of the conditional probability density (estimated by quantile regression forests) and a utility function which takes the relevance of the target variable value and the prediction error into account. SMOTER oversamples the relevant rare cases. Simulations show that the proposed method provides plausible predictions and reduces the bias for realistic missing data scenarios when compared with standard approaches like random forests and multiple imputation (systematic bias is observed in those methods, i.e., a tendency to underestimate the mean and standard deviation given the presence of MNAR in the area of high values of the target variable). The proposed method is implemented in a real dataset from an antidepressant clinical trial, and similar pattern of the systematic bias from commonly used methods is observed in the real data compare to the proposed method. Therefore, we encourage the integration of utility-based learning strategies for handling of missing data in the analysis of clinical trials.

Benchmark study of feature selection strategies for multi-omics data

BACKGROUND

In the last few years, multi-omics data, that is, datasets containing different types of high-dimensional molecular variables for the same samples, have become increasingly available. To date, several comparison studies focused on feature selection methods for omics data, but to our knowledge, none compared these methods for the special case of multi-omics data. Given that these data have specific structures that differentiate them from single-omics data, it is unclear whether different feature selection strategies may be optimal for such data. In this paper, using 15 cancer multi-omics datasets we compared four filter methods, two embedded methods, and two wrapper methods with respect to their performance in the prediction of a binary outcome in several situations that may affect the prediction results. As classifiers, we used support vector machines and random forests. The methods were compared using repeated fivefold cross-validation. The accuracy, the AUC, and the Brier score served as performance metrics.

RESULTS

The results suggested that, first, the chosen number of selected features affects the predictive performance for many feature selection methods but not all. Second, whether the features were selected by data type or from all data types concurrently did not considerably affect the predictive performance, but for some methods, concurrent selection took more time. Third, regardless of which performance measure was considered, the feature selection methods mRMR, the permutation importance of random forests, and the Lasso tended to outperform the other considered methods. Here, mRMR and the permutation importance of random forests already delivered strong predictive performance when considering only a few selected features. Finally, the wrapper methods were computationally much more expensive than the filter and embedded methods.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend the permutation importance of random forests and the filter method mRMR for feature selection using multi-omics data, where, however, mRMR is considerably more computationally costly.

Carotid endarterectomy or stenting or best medical treatment alone for moderate-to-severe asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis: 5-year results of a multicentre, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The optimal treatment for patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis is under debate. Since best medical treatment (BMT) has improved over time, the benefit of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) or carotid artery stenting (CAS) is unclear. Randomised data comparing the effect of CEA and CAS versus BMT alone are absent. We aimed to directly compare CEA plus BMT with CAS plus BMT and both with BMT only.

METHODS

SPACE-2 was a multicentre, randomised, controlled trial at 36 study centres in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. We enrolled participants aged 50-85 years with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis at the distal common carotid artery or the extracranial internal carotid artery of at least 70%, according to European Carotid Surgery Trial criteria. Initially designed as a three-arm trial including one group for BMT alone (with a randomised allocation ratio of 2·9:2·9:1), the SPACE-2 study design was amended (due to slow recruitment) to become two substudies with two arms each comparing CEA plus BMT with BMT alone (SPACE-2a) and CAS plus BMT with BMT alone (SPACE-2b); in each case in a 1:1 randomisation. Participants and clinicians were not masked to allocation. The primary efficacy endpoint was the cumulative incidence of any stroke or death from any cause within 30 days or any ipsilateral ischaemic stroke within 5 years. The primary safety endpoint was any stroke or death from any cause within 30 days after CEA or CAS. The primary analysis was by intention-to treat, which included all randomly assigned patients in SPACE-2, SPACE-2a, and SPACE-2b, analysed using meta-analysis of individual patient data. We did two-step hierarchical testing to first show superiority of CEA and CAS to BMT alone then to assess non-inferiority of CAS to CEA. Originally, we planned to recruit 3640 patients; however, the study had to be stopped prematurely due to insufficient recruitment. This report presents the primary analysis at 5-year follow-up. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN78592017.

FINDINGS

513 patients across SPACE-2, SPACE-2a, and SPACE-2b were recruited and surveyed between July 9, 2009, and Dec 12, 2019, of whom 203 (40%) were allocated to CEA plus BMT, 197 (38%) to CAS plus BMT, and 113 (22%) to BMT alone. Median follow-up was 59·9 months (IQR 46·6-60·0). The cumulative incidence of any stroke or death from any cause within 30 days or any ipsilateral ischaemic stroke within 5 years (primary efficacy endpoint) was 2·5% (95% CI 1·0-5·8) with CEA plus BMT, 4·4% (2·2-8·6) with CAS plus BMT, and 3·1% (1·0-9·4) with BMT alone. Cox proportional-hazard testing showed no difference in risk for the primary efficacy endpoint for CEA plus BMT versus BMT alone (hazard ratio [HR] 0·93, 95% CI 0·22-3·91; p=0·93) or for CAS plus BMT versus BMT alone (1·55, 0·41-5·85; p=0·52). Superiority of CEA or CAS to BMT was not shown, therefore non-inferiority testing was not done. In both the CEA group and the CAS group, five strokes and no deaths occurred in the 30-day period after the procedure. During the 5-year follow-up period, three ipsilateral strokes occurred in both the CAS plus BMT and BMT alone group, with none in the CEA plus BMT group.

INTERPRETATION

CEA plus BMT or CAS plus BMT were not found to be superior to BMT alone regarding risk of any stroke or death within 30 days or ipsilateral stroke during the 5-year observation period. Because of the small sample size, results should be interpreted with caution.

FUNDING

German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and German Research Foundation (DFG).

Somatic copy number alteration and fragmentation analysis in circulating tumor DNA for cancer screening and treatment monitoring in colorectal cancer patients

Background

Analysis of circulating free DNA (cfDNA) is a promising tool for personalized management of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Untargeted cfDNA analysis using whole-genome sequencing (WGS) does not need a priori knowledge of the patient´s mutation profile.

Methods

Here we established LIquid biopsy Fragmentation, Epigenetic signature and Copy Number Alteration analysis (LIFE-CNA) using WGS with ~ 6× coverage for detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in CRC patients as a marker for CRC detection and monitoring.

Results

We describe the analytical validity and a clinical proof-of-concept of LIFE-CNA using a total of 259 plasma samples collected from 50 patients with stage I-IV CRC and 61 healthy controls. To reliably distinguish CRC patients from healthy controls, we determined cutoffs for the detection of ctDNA based on global and regional cfDNA fragmentation patterns, transcriptionally active chromatin sites, and somatic copy number alterations. We further combined global and regional fragmentation pattern into a machine learning (ML) classifier to accurately predict ctDNA for cancer detection. By following individual patients throughout their course of disease, we show that LIFE-CNA enables the reliable prediction of response or resistance to treatment up to 3.5 months before commonly used CEA.

Conclusion

In summary, we developed and validated a sensitive and cost-effective method for untargeted ctDNA detection at diagnosis as well as for treatment monitoring of all CRC patients based on genetic as well as non-genetic tumor-specific cfDNA features. Thus, once sensitivity and specificity have been externally validated, LIFE-CNA has the potential to be implemented into clinical practice. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to consider multiple genetic and non-genetic cfDNA features in combination with ML classifiers and to evaluate their potential in both cancer detection and treatment monitoring.

Trial registration DRKS00012890.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13045-022-01342-z.

Usability of German hospital administrative claims data for healthcare research: General assessment and use case of multiple myeloma in Munich university hospital in 2015–2017

Objectives

To assess the usability of German hospital administrative claims data (GHACD) to determine inpatient management patterns, healthcare resource utilization, and quality-of-care in patients with multiple myeloma (PwMM).

Methods

Based on German tertiary hospital’s claims data (2015–2017), PwMM aged >18 years were included if they had an International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, code of C90.0 or received anti-MM therapy. Subgroup analysis was performed on stem cell transplantation (SCT) patients.

Results

Of 230 PwMM, 59.1% were men; 56.1% were aged ≥65 years. Hypertension and infections were present in 50% and 67.0%, respectively. Seventy percent of PwMM received combination therapy. Innovative drugs such as bortezomib and lenalidomide were given to 36.1% and 10.9% of the patients, respectively. Mean number of admissions and mean hospitalization length/patient were 3.69 (standard deviation (SD) 2.71 (1–16)) and 12.52 (SD 9.55 (1–68.5)) days, respectively. In-hospital mortality was recorded in 12.2%. Seventy-two percent of SCT patients (n = 88) were aged ≤65 years, 22.7% required second transplantation, and 89.8% received platelet transfusion at a mean of 1.42(SD 0.63 (1–3)).

Conclusion

GHACD provided relevant information essential for healthcare studies about PwMM from routine care settings. Data fundamental for quality-of-care assessment were also captured.

Area Deprivation and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Bavaria, Germany: A Bayesian Geographical Analysis

Background

Area deprivation has been shown to be associated with various adverse health outcomes including communicable as well as non-communicable diseases. Our objective was to assess potential associations between area deprivation and COVID-19 standardized incidence and mortality ratios in Bavaria over a period of nearly 2 years. Bavaria is the federal state with the highest infection dynamics in Germany and demographically comparable to several other European countries.

Methods

In this retrospective, observational ecological study, we estimated the strength of associations between area deprivation and standardized COVID-19 incidence and mortality ratios (SIR and SMR) in Bavaria, Germany. We used official SARS-CoV-2 reporting data aggregated in monthly periods between March 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021. Area deprivation was assessed using the quintiles of the 2015 version of the Bavarian Index of Multiple Deprivation (BIMD 2015) at district level, analyzing the overall index as well as its single domains.

Results

Deprived districts showed higher SIR and SMR than less deprived districts. Aggregated over the whole period, the SIR increased by 1.04 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.01 to 1.07, p = 0.002), and the SMR by 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.16, p < 0.001) per BIMD quintile. This represents a maximum difference of 41% between districts in the most and least deprived quintiles in the SIR and 110% in the SMR. Looking at individual months revealed clear linear association between the BIMD quintiles and the SIR and SMR in the first, second and last quarter of 2021. In the summers of 2020 and 2021, infection activity was low.

Conclusions

In more deprived areas in Bavaria, Germany, higher incidence and mortality ratios were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic with particularly strong associations during infection waves 3 and 4 in 2020/2021. Only high infection levels reveal the effect of risk factors and socioeconomic inequalities. There may be confounding between the highly deprived areas and border regions in the north and east of Bavaria, making the relationship between area deprivation and infection burden more complex. Vaccination appeared to balance incidence and mortality rates between the most and least deprived districts. Vaccination makes an important contribution to health equality.

Associations of the vasoactive peptides CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM with incident type 2 diabetes: results from the BiomarCaRE Consortium

BACKGROUND

Endothelin-1 (ET-1) and adrenomedullin (ADM) are commonly known as vasoactive peptides that regulate vascular homeostasis. Less recognised is the fact that both peptides could affect glucose metabolism. Here, we investigated whether ET-1 and ADM, measured as C-terminal-proET-1 (CT-proET-1) and mid-regional-proADM (MR-proADM), respectively, were associated with incident type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Based on the population-based Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) Consortium data, we performed a prospective cohort study to examine associations of CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM with incident type 2 diabetes in 12,006 participants. During a median follow-up time of 13.8 years, 862 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The associations were examined in Cox proportional hazard models. Additionally, we performed two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses using published data.

RESULTS

CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM were positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes. The multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence intervals (CI)] were 1.10 [1.03; 1.18], P = 0.008 per 1-SD increase of CT-proET-1 and 1.11 [1.02; 1.21], P = 0.016 per 1-SD increase of log MR-proADM, respectively. We observed a stronger association of MR-proADM with incident type 2 diabetes in obese than in non-obese individuals (P-interaction with BMI < 0.001). The HRs [95%CIs] were 1.19 [1.05; 1.34], P = 0.005 and 1.02 [0.90; 1.15], P = 0.741 in obese and non-obese individuals, respectively. Our Mendelian randomisation analyses yielded a significant association of CT-proET-1, but not of MR-proADM with type 2 diabetes risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher concentrations of CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM are associated with incident type 2 diabetes, but our Mendelian randomisation analysis suggests a probable causal link for CT-proET-1 only. The association of MR-proADM seems to be modified by body composition.

Prehabilitation of elderly frail or pre-frail patients prior to elective surgery (PRAEP-GO): study protocol for a randomized, controlled, outcome assessor-blinded trial

BACKGROUND

Frailty is expressed by a reduction in physical capacity, mobility, muscle strength, and endurance. (Pre-)frailty is present in up to 42% of the older surgical population, with an increased risk for peri- and postoperative complications. Consequently, these patients often suffer from a delayed or limited recovery, loss of autonomy and quality of life, and a decrease in functional and cognitive capacities. Since frailty is modifiable, prehabilitation may improve the physiological reserves of patients and reduce the care dependency 12 months after surgery.

METHODS

Patients ≥ 70 years old scheduled for elective surgery or intervention will be recruited in this multicenter, randomized controlled study, with a target of 1400 participants with an allocation ratio of 1:1. The intervention consists of (1) a shared decision-making process with the patient, relatives, and an interdisciplinary and interprofessional team and (2) a 3-week multimodal, individualized prehabilitation program including exercise therapy, nutritional intervention, mobility or balance training, and psychosocial interventions and medical assessment. The frequency of the supervised prehabilitation is 5 times/week for 3 weeks. The primary endpoint is defined as the level of care dependency 12 months after surgery or intervention.

DISCUSSION

Prehabilitation has been proven to be effective for different populations, including colorectal, transplant, and cardiac surgery patients. In contrast, evidence for prehabilitation in older, frail patients has not been clearly established. To the best of our knowledge, this is currently the largest prehabilitation study on older people with frailty undergoing general elective surgery.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04418271 . Registered on 5 June 2020. Universal Trial Number (UTN): U1111-1253-4820.

Missing data imputation in clinical trials using recurrent neural network facilitated by clustering and oversampling

In clinical practice, the composition of missing data may be complex, for example, a mixture of missing at random (MAR) and missing not at random (MNAR) assumptions. Many methods under the assumption of MAR are available. Under the assumption of MNAR, likelihood-based methods require specification of the joint distribution of the data, and the missingness mechanism has been introduced as sensitivity analysis. These classic models heavily rely on the underlying assumption, and, in many realistic scenarios, they can produce unreliable estimates. In this paper, we develop a machine learning based missing data prediction framework with the aim of handling more realistic missing data scenarios. We use an imbalanced learning technique (i.e., oversampling of minority class) to handle the MNAR data. To implement oversampling in longitudinal continuous variable, we first perform clustering via k $k$ -mean trajectories. And use the recurrent neural network (RNN) to model the longitudinal data. Further, we apply bootstrap aggregating to improve the accuracy of prediction and also to consider the uncertainty of a single prediction. We evaluate the proposed method using simulated data. The prediction result is evaluated at the individual patient level and the overall population level. We demonstrate the powerful predictive capability of RNN for longitudinal data and its flexibility for nonlinear modeling. Overall, the proposed method provides an accurate individual prediction for both MAR and MNAR data and reduce the bias of missing data in treatment effect estimation when compared to standard methods and classic models. Finally, we implement the proposed method in a real dataset from an antidepressant clinical trial. In summary, this paper offers an opportunity to encourage the integration of machine learning strategies for handling of missing data in the analysis of randomized clinical trials.

Risk factors for major gastrointestinal bleeding in the general population in Finland

BACKGROUND

Data on non-drug related risk-factors for gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in the general population are limited, especially for life-style factors, clinical measurements and laboratory parameters.

AIM

To identify and investigate non-drug risk factors for major GIB in the general population of Finland.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the FINRISK health examination surveys, which have been conducted every 5 years across Finland from 1987 to 2007. Participants were adults aged 25 years to 74 years, excluding those with a previous hospitalization for GIB. Follow-up from enrollment was performed through linkage to national electronic health registers and ended at an event of GIB that led to hospitalization/death, death due to any other cause, or after 10 years. Covariates included demographics, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, clinical measurements, laboratory parameters and comorbidities. Variable selection was undertaken using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and factors associated with GIB were identified using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Among 33,508 participants, 403 (1.2%) experienced GIB [256 men (63.5%); mean age, 56.0 years (standard deviation (SD) ± 12.1)] and 33105 who did not experience GIB [15768 men (47.6%); mean age, 46.8 (SD ± 13) years], within 10 years of follow-up. Factors associated with a significantly increased risk of GIB were baseline age [per 10-year increase; hazard ratio (HR) 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42-1.86], unemployment (HR: 1.70, 95%CI: 1.11-2.59), body mass index (BMI) (HR: 1.15, 95%CI: 1.01-1.32), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) (HR: 1.05, 95%CI: 1.02-1.09), precursors of GIB (HR: 1.90, 95%CI: 1.37-2.63), cancer (HR: 1.47, 95%CI: 1.10-1.97), psychiatric disorders (HR: 1.32, 95%CI: 1.01-1.71), heart failure (HR: 1.46, 95%CI: 1.04-2.05), and liver disorders (HR: 3.20, 95%CI: 2.06-4.97). Factors associated with a significantly decreased risk of GIB were systolic blood pressure (SBP) (HR: 0.78, 95%CI: 0.64-0.96), 6-10 cups of coffee a day (HR: 0.67, 95%CI: 0.46-0.99), or > 10 cups (HR: 0.43, 95%CI: 0.23-0.81).

CONCLUSION

Our study confirms established risk-factors for GIB and identifies potential risk-factors not previously reported such as unemployment, BMI, GGT, SBP and coffee consumption.

Validating the knowledge bank approach for personalized prediction of survival in acute myeloid leukemia: a reproducibility study

Reproducibility is not only essential for the integrity of scientific research but is also a prerequisite for model validation and refinement for the future application of predictive algorithms. However, reproducible research is becoming increasingly challenging, particularly in high-dimensional genomic data analyses with complex statistical or algorithmic techniques. Given that there are no mandatory requirements in most biomedical and statistical journals to provide the original data, analytical source code, or other relevant materials for publication, accessibility to these supplements naturally suggests a greater credibility of the published work. In this study, we performed a reproducibility assessment of the notable paper by Gerstung et al. (Nat Genet 49:332–340, 2017) by rerunning the analysis using their original code and data, which are publicly accessible. Despite an open science setting, it was challenging to reproduce the entire research project; reasons included: incomplete data and documentation, suboptimal code readability, coding errors, limited portability of intensive computing performed on a specific platform, and an R computing environment that could no longer be re-established. We learn that the availability of code and data does not guarantee transparency and reproducibility of a study; paradoxically, the source code is still liable to error and obsolescence, essentially due to methodological and computational complexity, a lack of reproducibility checking at submission, and updates for software and operating environment. The complex code may also hide problematic methodological aspects of the proposed research. Building on the experience gained, we discuss the best programming and software engineering practices that could have been employed to improve reproducibility, and propose practical criteria for the conduct and reporting of reproducibility studies for future researchers.

Predicting the earliest deviation in weight gain in the course towards manifest overweight in offspring exposed to obesity in pregnancy: a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

Obesity in pregnancy and related early-life factors place the offspring at the highest risk of being overweight. Despite convincing evidence on these associations, there is an unmet public health need to identify "high-risk" offspring by predicting very early deviations in weight gain patterns as a subclinical stage towards overweight. However, data and methods for individual risk prediction are lacking. We aimed to identify those infants exposed to obesity in pregnancy at ages 3 months, 1 year, and 2 years who likely will follow a higher-than-normal body mass index (BMI) growth trajectory towards manifest overweight by developing an early-risk quantification system.

METHODS

This study uses data from the prospective mother-child cohort study Programming of Enhanced Adiposity Risk in CHildhood-Early Screening (PEACHES) comprising 1671 mothers with pre-conception obesity and without (controls) and their offspring. Exposures were pre- and postnatal risks documented in patient-held maternal and child health records. The main outcome was a "higher-than-normal BMI growth pattern" preceding overweight, defined as BMI z-score >1 SD (i.e., World Health Organization [WHO] cut-off "at risk of overweight") at least twice during consecutive offspring growth periods between age 6 months and 5 years. The independent cohort PErinatal Prevention of Obesity (PEPO) comprising 11,730 mother-child pairs recruited close to school entry (around age 6 years) was available for data validation. Cluster analysis and sequential prediction modelling were performed.

RESULTS

Data of 1557 PEACHES mother-child pairs and the validation cohort were analyzed comprising more than 50,000 offspring BMI measurements. More than 1-in-5 offspring exposed to obesity in pregnancy belonged to an upper BMI z-score cluster as a distinct pattern of BMI development (above the cut-off of 1 SD) from the first months of life onwards resulting in preschool overweight/obesity (age 5 years: odds ratio [OR] 16.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.98-26.05). Contributing early-life factors including excessive weight gain (OR 2.08; 95% CI 1.25-3.45) and smoking (OR 1.94; 95% CI 1.27-2.95) in pregnancy were instrumental in predicting a "higher-than-normal BMI growth pattern" at age 3 months and re-evaluating the risk at ages 1 year and 2 years (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.69-0.79, sensitivity 70.7-76.0%, specificity 64.7-78.1%). External validation of prediction models demonstrated adequate predictive performances.

CONCLUSIONS

We devised a novel sequential strategy of individual prediction and re-evaluation of a higher-than-normal weight gain in "high-risk" infants well before developing overweight to guide decision-making. The strategy holds promise to elaborate interventions in an early preventive manner for integration in systems of well-child care.

MRI-based contrast clearance analysis shows high differentiation accuracy between radiation-induced reactions and progressive disease after cranial radiotherapy

Background

Pseudoprogression (PsP) or radiation necrosis (RN) may frequently occur after cranial radiotherapy and show a similar imaging pattern compared with progressive disease (PD). We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging-based contrast clearance analysis (CCA) in this clinical setting.

Patients and methods

Patients with equivocal imaging findings after cranial radiotherapy were consecutively included into this monocentric prospective study. CCA was carried out by software-based automated subtraction of imaging features in late versus early T1-weighted sequences after contrast agent application. Two experienced neuroradiologists evaluated CCA with respect to PsP/RN and PD being blinded for histological findings. The radiological assessment was compared with the histopathological results, and its accuracy was calculated statistically.

Results

A total of 33 patients were included; 16 (48.5%) were treated because of a primary brain tumor (BT), and 17 (51.1%) because of a secondary BT. In one patient, CCA was technically infeasible. The accuracy of CCA in predicting the histological result was 0.84 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.95; one-sided P = 0.051; n = 32]. Sensitivity and specificity of CCA were 0.93 (95% CI 0.66-1.00) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.52-0.94), respectively. The accuracy in patients with secondary BTs was 0.94 (95% CI 0.71-1.00) and nonsignificantly higher compared with patients with primary BT with an accuracy of 0.73 (95% CI 0.45-0.92), P = 0.16.

Conclusions

In this study, CCA was a highly accurate, easy, and helpful method for distinguishing PsP or RN from PD after cranial radiotherapy, especially in patients with secondary tumors after radiosurgical treatment.

•

CCA is accurate in distinguishing treatment reactions from true PD.

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CCA was more accurate for irradiated metastases than primary BTs.

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CCA is not feasible for lesions with no contrast media uptake.

[Regional and Temporal Trends in SARS-CoV-2-Associated Mortality in Bavaria: An Age-Stratified Analysis Over 5 Quarters for Persons Aged 50 and Older]

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of regional factors such as incidence rate, hospitalizations, socio-economic status and nursing homes on the regional and temporal heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2-associated mortality in Bavaria.

METHODOLOGY

Official Bavarian SARS-CoV-2 reporting data were considered for three age groups (50-64, 65-74,>74 years) between March 2020 and April 2021. Maps of regional standardized mortality rates were spatially smoothed using a Bayesian hierarchical model.

RESULTS

The picture of regional mortality was heterogeneous with an increasing gradient toward the northeast. Adjustment for standardized incidence rates, hospitalizations of infected persons, and availability of care homes for the elderly levelled the heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

The north-east gradient in Bavarian SARS-CoV-2-specific mortality rates is clearly explained by the comparable gradient in regional incidence rates. Other regional factors show a less clear influence.

MR-guided adaptive stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) of primary tumor for pain control in metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC): an open randomized, multicentric, parallel group clinical trial (MASPAC)

Background

Pain symptoms in the upper abdomen and back are prevalent in 80% of patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC), where the current standard treatment is a systemic therapy consisting of at least doublet-chemotherapy for fit patients. Palliative low-dose radiotherapy is a well-established local treatment option but there is some evidence for a better and longer pain response after a dose-intensified radiotherapy of the primary pancreatic cancer (pPCa). Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) can deliver high radiation doses in few fractions, therefore reducing chemotherapy-free intervals. However, prospective data on pain control after SBRT of pPCa is very limited. Therefore, we aim to investigate the impact of SBRT on pain control in patients with mPDAC in a prospective trial.

Methods

This is a prospective, double-arm, randomized controlled, international multicenter study testing the added benefit of MR-guided adaptive SBRT of the pPca embedded between standard of care-chemotherapy (SoC-CT) cycles for pain control and prevention of pain in patients with mPDAC. 92 patients with histologically proven mPDAC and at least stable disease after initial 8 weeks of SoC-CT will be eligible for the trial and 1:1 randomized in 3 centers in Germany and Switzerland to either experimental arm A, receiving MR-guided SBRT of the pPCa with 5 × 6.6 Gy at 80% isodose with continuation of SoC-CT thereafter, or control arm B, continuing SoC-CT without SBRT. Daily MR-guided plan adaptation intents to achieve good target coverage, while simultaneously minimizing dose to organs at risk. Patients will be followed up for minimum 6 and maximum of 18 months. The primary endpoint of the study is the “mean cumulative pain index” rated every 4 weeks until death or end of study using numeric rating scale.

Discussion

An adequate long-term control of pain symptoms in patients with mPDAC is an unmet clinical need. Despite improvements in systemic treatment, local complications due to pPCa remain a clinical challenge. We hypothesize that patients with mPDAC will benefit from a local treatment of the pPCa by MR-guided SBRT in terms of a durable pain control with a simultaneously favorable safe toxicity profile translating into an improvement of quality-of-life.

Trial registration

German Registry for Clinical Trials (DRKS): DRKS00025801. Meanwhile the study is also registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with the Identifier: NCT05114213.

Fusion gene detection by RNA-sequencing complements diagnostics of acute myeloid leukemia and identifies recurring NRIP1-MIR99AHG rearrangements

Identification of fusion genes in clinical routine is mostly based on cytogenetics and targeted molecular genetics, such as metaphase karyotyping, fluorescence in situ hybridization and reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. However, sequencing technologies are becoming more important in clinical routine as processing time and costs per sample decrease. To evaluate the performance of fusion gene detection by RNAsequencing compared to standard diagnostic techniques, we analyzed 806 RNA-sequencing samples from patients with acute myeloid leukemia using two state-of-the-art software tools, namely Arriba and FusionCatcher. RNA-sequencing detected 90% of fusion events that were reported by routine with high evidence, while samples in which RNA-sequencing failed to detect fusion genes had overall lower and inhomogeneous sequence coverage. Based on properties of known and unknown fusion events, we developed a workflow with integrated filtering strategies for the identification of robust fusion gene candidates by RNA-sequencing. Thereby, we detected known recurrent fusion events in 26 cases that were not reported by routine and found discrepancies in evidence for known fusion events between routine and RNA-sequencing in three cases. Moreover, we identified 157 fusion genes as novel robust candidates and comparison to entries from ChimerDB or Mitelman Database showed novel recurrence of fusion genes in 14 cases. Finally, we detected the novel recurrent fusion gene NRIP1- MIR99AHG resulting from inv(21)(q11.2;q21.1) in nine patients (1.1%) and LTN1-MX1 resulting from inv(21)(q21.3;q22.3) in two patients (0.25%). We demonstrated that NRIP1-MIR99AHG results in overexpression of the 3' region of MIR99AHG and the disruption of the tricistronic miRNA cluster miR-99a/let-7c/miR-125b-2. Interestingly, upregulation of MIR99AHG and deregulation of the miRNA cluster, residing in the MIR99AHG locus, are known mechanisms of leukemogenesis in acute megakaryoblastic leukemia. Our findings demonstrate that RNA-sequencing has a strong potential to improve the systematic detection of fusion genes in clinical applications and provides a valuable tool for fusion discovery.

Safety and Efficacy of Acetyl-DL-Leucine in Certain Types of Cerebellar Ataxia: The ALCAT Randomized Clinical Crossover Trial

IMPORTANCE

Cerebellar ataxia is a neurodegenerative disease impairing motor function characterized by ataxia of stance, gait, speech, and fine motor disturbances.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of the modified essential amino acid acetyl-DL-leucine in treating patients who have cerebellar ataxia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Acetyl-DL-leucine on Cerebellar Ataxia (ALCAT) trial was an investigator-initiated, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical crossover trial. The study was conducted at 7 university hospitals in Germany and Austria between January 25, 2016, and February 17, 2017. Patients were aged at least 18 years and diagnosed with cerebellar ataxia of hereditary (suspected or genetically confirmed) or nonhereditary or unknown type presenting with a total score of at least 3 points on the Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia (SARA). Statistical analysis was performed from April 2018 to June 2018 and January 2020 to March 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive acetyl-DL-leucine orally (5 g per day after 2 weeks up-titration) followed by a matched placebo, each for 6 weeks, separated by a 4-week washout, or vice versa. The randomization was done via a web-based, permuted block-wise randomization list (block size, 2) that was stratified by disease subtype (hereditary vs nonhereditary or unknown) and site.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary efficacy outcome was the absolute change of SARA total score from (period-dependent) baseline to week 6.

RESULTS

Among 108 patients who were randomly assigned to sequence groups (54 patients each), 55 (50.9%) were female; the mean (SD) age was 54.8 (14.4) years; and the mean (SD) SARA total score was 13.33 (5.57) points. The full analysis set included 105 patients (80 patients with hereditary, 25 with nonhereditary or unknown cerebellar ataxia). There was no evidence of a difference in the mean absolute change from baseline to week 6 in SARA total scores between both treatments (mean treatment difference: 0.23 points [95% CI, -0.40 to 0.85 points]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this large multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical crossover trial, acetyl-DL-leucine in the investigated dosage and treatment duration was not superior to placebo for the symptomatic treatment of certain types of ataxia. The drug was well tolerated; and ALCAT yielded valuable information about the duration of treatment periods and the role of placebo response in cerebellar ataxia. These findings suggest that further symptom-oriented trials are needed for evaluating the long-term effects of acetyl-DL-leucine for well-defined subgroups of cerebellar ataxia.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EudraCT 2015-000460-34.

Pylorus resection versus pylorus preservation in pancreatoduodenectomy (PyloResPres): study protocol and statistical analysis plan for a German multicentre, single-blind, surgical, registry-based randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Partial pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is the treatment of choice for various benign and malignant tumours of the pancreatic head or the periampullary region. For reconstruction of the gastrointestinal passage, two stomach-preserving PD variants exist: pylorus preservation PD (ppPD) or pylorus resection PD (prPD) with preservation of the stomach. In pancreatic surgery, delayed gastric emptying (DGE) remains a serious complication after PD with an incidence varying between 4.5% and 45%, potentially delaying hospital discharge or further treatment, for example, adjuvant chemotherapy. Evidence is lacking to assess, which variant of PD entails fewer postoperative DGE.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The protocol of a large-scale, multicentre, pragmatic, two-arm parallel-group, registry-based randomised controlled trial (rRCT) using a two-stage group-sequential design is presented. This patient-blind rRCT aims to demonstrate the superiority of prPD over ppPD with respect to the overall incidence of DGE within 30 days after index surgery in a German real-world setting. A total of 984 adults undergoing elective PD for any indication will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio. Patients will be recruited at about 30 hospitals being members of the StuDoQ|Pancreas registry established by the German Society of General and Visceral Surgery. The postoperative follow-up for each patient will be 30 days. The primary analysis will follow an intention-to-treat approach and applies a binary logistic random intercepts model. Secondary perioperative outcomes include overall severe morbidity (Clavien-Dindo classification), blood loss, 30-day all-cause mortality, postoperative hospital stay and operation time. Complication rates and adverse events will be closely monitored.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol was approved by the leading ethics committee of the Medical Faculty of the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich (reference number 19-221). The results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at international conferences. Study findings will also be disseminated via the website (http://www.dgav.de/studoq/pylorespres/).

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

DRKS-ID: DRKS00018842.

Natriuretic Peptides and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Results From the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) Consortium

OBJECTIVE

Natriuretic peptide (NP) concentrations are increased in cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) but are associated with a lower diabetes risk. We investigated associations of N-terminal pro-B-type NP (NT-proBNP) and midregional proatrial NP (MR-proANP) with incident type 2 diabetes stratified by the presence of CVD.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) Consortium, we included 45,477 participants with NT-proBNP measurements (1,707 developed type 2 diabetes over 6.5 years of median follow-up; among these, 209 had CVD at baseline) and 11,537 participants with MR-proANP measurements (857 developed type 2 diabetes over 13.8 years of median follow-up; among these, 106 had CVD at baseline). The associations were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Both NPs were inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes (hazard ratios [95% CI] per 1-SD increase of log NP: 0.84 [0.79; 0.89] for NT-proBNP and 0.77 [0.71; 0.83] for MR-proANP). The inverse association between NT-proBNP and type 2 diabetes was significant in individuals without CVD but not in individuals with CVD (0.81 [0.76; 0.86] vs. 1.04 [0.90; 1.19]; P multiplicative interaction = 0.001). There was no significant difference in the association of MR-proANP with type 2 diabetes between individuals without and with CVD (0.75 [0.69; 0.82] vs. 0.81 [0.66; 0.99]; P multiplicative interaction = 0.236).

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP and MR-proANP are inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes. However, the inverse association of NT-proBNP seems to be modified by the presence of CVD. Further investigations are warranted to confirm our findings and to investigate the underlying mechanisms.

BreathEase: rationale, design and recruitment of a randomised trial and embedded mixed-methods study of a multiprofessional breathlessness service in early palliative care

Background

The Munich Breathlessness Service has adapted novel support services to the German context, to reduce burden in patients and carers from breathlessness in advanced disease. It has been evaluated in a pragmatic fast-track randomised controlled trial (BreathEase; NCT02622412) with embedded qualitative interviews and postal survey. The aim of this article is to describe the intervention model and study design, analyse recruitment to the trial and compare sample characteristics with other studies in the field.

Methods

Analysis of recruitment pathways and enrolment, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of participants and carers.

Results

Out of 439 people screened, 253 (58%) were offered enrolment and 183 (42%) participated. n=97 (70%) carers participated. 186 (42%) people did not qualify for inclusion, mostly because breathlessness could not be attributed to an underlying disease. All participants were self-referring; 60% through media sources. Eligibility and willingness to participate were associated to social networks and illness-related activities as recruitment routes. Mean age of participants was 71 years (51% women), with COPD (63%), chronic heart failure (8%), interstitial lung disease (9%), pulmonary hypertension (6%) and cancer (7%) as underlying conditions. Postal survey response rate was 89%. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 16 patients and nine carers.

Conclusion

The BreathEase study has a larger and more heterogeneous sample compared to other trials. The self-referral-based and prolonged recruitment drawing on media sources approximates real-world conditions of early palliative care. Integrating qualitative and quantitative components will allow a better understanding and interpretation of the results of the main effectiveness study.

The BreathEase study, a mixed-methods pragmatic RCT evaluating the Munich Breathlessness Service, included a heterogeneous sample that approximates real-world conditions of early palliative care, and ran qualitative and quantitative trial siblingshttps://bit.ly/375nCMO

Successful implementation of best medical treatment for patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis within a randomized controlled trial (SPACE-2)

Background

Asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACS) can be treated with carotid endarterectomy (CEA), carotid artery stenting (CAS), or best medical treatment (BMT) only. For all treatment options, optimization of vascular risk factors such as arterial hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, obesity, and insufficient physical activity is essential. Data on adherence to BMT and lifestyle modification in patients with ACS are sparse. The subject of this investigation is the implementation and quality of risk factor adjustment in the context of a randomized controlled trial.

Methods

A total of 513 patients in the prematurely terminated, randomized, controlled, multicenter SPACE-2 trial (ISRCTN 78592017) were analyzed within one year after randomization into 3 groups (CEA, CAS, and BMT only) for implementation of prespecified BMT recommendations and lifestyle modifications. Measurement time points were the screening visit and visits after one month (D30), 6 months (M6), and one year (A1). Differences between groups and follow-up visits (FUVs) relative to the screening visit were investigated.

Findings

For all FUVs, a significant increase in statin medication (91% at A1; p < 0.0001) was demonstrated to be associated with a significant decrease (p < 0.01) in cholesterol levels (median 167 mg/dl at A1) and LDL cholesterol levels (median 93 mg/dl at A1). The lowest cholesterol levels were achieved by patients in the BMT group. Seventy-eight percent of all patients reached predefined target cholesterol levels (< 200 mg/dl), with significantly better rates in the BMT group (p = 0.036 at D30). Furthermore, a significant decrease in arterial blood pressure at all FUVs (p < 0.05) was associated with a significant increase in antihypertensive medication (96% at A1, p < 0.0001). However, only 28% of patients achieved the predefined treatment goal of a systolic blood pressure of ≤ 130 mmHg. Forty-two of a total of 100 smokers at the screening visit quit smoking within one year, resulting in a significant increase in nonsmokers at all FUVs (p < 0.0001). Recommended HbA1c levels (< 7%) were achieved in 82% without significant changes after one year. Only 7% of obese (BMI > 25) patients achieved sufficient weight reduction after one year without significant changes at all FUVs (median BMI 27 at A1; p = 0.1201). The BMT group showed significantly (p = 0.024) higher rates of adequate physical activity than the intervention groups. Furthermore, after one year, the BMT group showed a comparatively significantly better implementation of risk factor modification (77%; p = 0.027) according to the treating physician.

Interpretation

SPACE-2 demonstrated sustained improvement in the noninterventional management of vascular risk factors in patients treated in a clinical trial by general practitioners, internists and neurologists. The best implemented treatment targets were a reduction in cholesterol and HbA1c levels. In this context, a significant increase in statin use was demonstrated. Blood pressure control missed its target but was significantly reduced by intensification of antihypertensive medication. Patients on BMT only had better adjusted lipid parameters and were more physically active. However, all groups failed to achieve sufficient weight reduction. Due to insufficient patient recruitment, the results must be interpreted cautiously.

Trial registration: ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN78592017, Registered 16 June 2007, https://www.isrctn.com/search?q=78592017.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42466-021-00153-w.

Immune infiltrates in patients with localised high-risk soft tissue sarcoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy without or with regional hyperthermia: A translational research program of the EORTC 62961-ESHO 95 randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND

The EORTC 62961-ESHO 95 randomised trial showed improved long-term survival of patients with high-risk soft-tissue sarcoma by adding regional hyperthermia to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We hypothesised that immune infiltrate of patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy associate with clinical outcome.

METHODS

Tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and CD8, FOXP3, PD-1, and PD-L1 were evaluated in sequential biopsies of patients after four cycles of therapy.

RESULTS

From a subgroup of 109 patients who had been randomised between July 1997 and November 2006 to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (53 patients) or neoadjuvant chemotherapy with regional hyperthermia (56 patients), 137 biopsies were obtained. TILs increased in paired second biopsies independent of treatment allocation (p < 0.001). FOXP3 regulatory T cells decreased (p = 0.002), and PD-L1 expression of tumours became undetectable. In the multivariate analysis, post-treatment high TILs correlated to LPFS (HR: 0.34; 95% CI 0.15-0.75; p = 0.008) and DFS (HR: 0.38; 95% CI 0.17-0.82; p = 0.015). In comparing post-treatment immune infiltrate between treatment arms, tumour response was associated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy with regional hyperthermia (p = 0.013) and high TILs (p = 0.064). High CD8 cell infiltration was associated with improved LPFS (HR: 0.27; 95% CI 0.09-0.79; Log-rank p = 0.011) and DFS (HR: 0.25; 95% CI 0.09-0.73; Log-rank p = 0.006). Improved survival at 10 years was associated with immune infiltrate after neoadjuvant chemotherapy with regional hyperthermia.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative therapy re-programs a non-inflamed tumour at baseline into an inflamed tumour. The post-treatment immune infiltrate became predictive for clinical outcomes. The combination with regional hyperthermia primes the tumour microenvironment, enabling enhanced anti-tumour immune activity in high-risk soft tissue sarcomas.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00003052.

Medical journal requirements for clinical trial data sharing: Ripe for improvement

Florian Naudet and co-authors discuss strengthening requirements for sharing clinical trial data.

Fampridine and Acetazolamide in EA2 and Related Familial EA: A Prospective Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial

Objective

To determine the efficacy and safety of the treatment with prolonged-release 4-aminopyridine (fampridine) and acetazolamide for patients with episodic ataxia type 2 (EA2), patients with EA2 were treated with a random sequence of fampridine, acetazolamide, and placebo in a 3-period crossover trial.

Methods

A total of 30 patients with EA2 (8 female; aged 20-71 years; 18 genetically confirmed, 4 with a positive family history, 8 with the clinical diagnosis) were enrolled in this phase III, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 3-period crossover trial. Each period lasted 12 weeks with a 4-week washout period. Each patient received a random sequence of 20 mg/d fampridine, 750 mg/d acetazolamide, and placebo. The primary end point was the number of attacks during the last 30 days within the 12-week treatment period. Participants, caregivers, and those assessing the outcomes were blinded to the intervention.

Results

Compared with placebo, fampridine reduced the number of attacks to 63% (95% CI 54%-74%) and acetazolamide to 52% (95% CI 46%-60%). A total of 39 (26.5%) adverse events were observed under treatment with fampridine (mostly tingling paresthesia and fatigue), 66 (44.9%) happened under acetazolamide (mostly taste disturbance and gastrointestinal complaints), and 42 (28.6%) under placebo (mostly gastrointestinal complaints).

Conclusion

Both fampridine and acetazolamide significantly reduce the number of attacks in patients with EA2 and related EA in comparison to placebo. Fampridine 10 mg twice daily had fewer side effects than acetazolamide 250 mg 3 times daily. The trial was registered with DRKS.de (DRKS00005258) and EudraCT (2013-000107-17). This study was supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (grant number 01EO0901). Fampridine (study medication) was provided by Biogen Idec.

Classification of Evidence

Class II evidence.