Systematic literature review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in the USA, Europe, Canada, Australia, and Brazil

Background

Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) is a subtype of multiple sclerosis (MS), which is a chronic neurological disease, characterised by inflammation of the central nervous system. Most of MS patients eventually progress to SPMS. This study estimates the prevalence of SPMS in the United States of America, Europe, Canada, Australia, and Brazil.

Methods

A systematic literature search of the Medline and Embase databases was performed using the OVID™ SP platform to identify MS epidemiological studies published in English from database inception to September 22, 2020. Studies reporting the prevalence of MS and proportion of SPMS patients in the included population were selected. The pooled prevalence of SPMS was calculated based on the proportion of SPMS patients. The Loney quality assessment checklist was used for quality grading. A meta-analysis of the proportions was conducted in RStudio.

Results

A total of 4754 articles were retrieved, and prevalence was calculated from 97 relevant studies. Overall, 86 medium- and high-quality studies were included in the meta-analysis. Most studies were conducted in European countries (84 studies). The estimated pooled prevalence of SPMS was 22.42 (99% confidence interval: 18.30, 26.95)/100,000. The prevalence of SPMS was more in the North European countries, highest in Sweden and lowest in Brazil. A decline in SPMS prevalence was observed since the availability of oral disease-modifying therapies. We also observed a regional variation of higher SPMS prevalence in urban areas compared with rural areas.

Conclusion

High variability was observed in the estimated SPMS prevalence, and the quality of the studies conducted. The influence of latitude and other factors known to affect overall MS prevalence did not fully explain the wide range of inter-country and intra-country variability identified in the results.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-022-02820-0.

Incidence and Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in Malmö, Southern Sweden

Objectives

To estimate the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Malmö municipality in southwestern Sweden.

Materials and Methods

Multiple sources were used in the case identification process. Case ascertainment was assessed by medical chart review including examinations such as magnetic resonance imaging, cerebrospinal fluid analyses, and relevant laboratory tests. Cases were classified according to the 2010 McDonald's diagnostic criteria. Onset-adjusted prevalence and a definition of onset symptoms were applied.

Results

The crude incidence of MS in 2001-2010 in Malmö municipality was 5.3/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.5 to 6.2). There was a relapsing onset in 90.5% of cases. The female to male ratio was 1.8. The onset-adjusted prevalence for Dec 2010 was 133/100,000 (95% CI, 120 to 146) with a female to male ratio of 2.1.

Conclusions

This is the first population-based epidemiological study in Skåne, the most southwestern part of Sweden showing a high incidence and prevalence. We found a lower incidence than expected according to previous nationwide figures, probably due to methodological differences between the studies. Our findings support the presence of a north-south gradient of MS prevalence in Sweden.

Validating the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis using Swedish administrative data in Värmland County

OBJECTIVES

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system. Identifying MS at the population level is important for disease surveillance and allocation of resources. The Swedish National Patient Registry (NPR) has been used to study the epidemiology of MS, but the accuracy of this resource is not known. We aimed to validate a definition of MS using the Swedish NPR in Värmland County using a longitudinal cohort design.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were extracted from the NPR, the Total Population Register, the Swedish MS Register, and medical records for the years 2001-2013. Fifteen algorithms of hospitalizations and clinic visits for MS were developed and compared with findings in medical records, which acted as the "gold standard" definition. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were estimated.

RESULTS

Of 805 eligible persons identified in the NPR, 763 had MS (94.8%) according to medical records. Of these, 544 (71.3%) were also registered in the SMSreg. The case definition that had a well-balanced sensitivity and specificity required three or more clinic or hospital visits for MS (sensitivity of 85.3% (95% CI: 82.6-87.8) and specificity of 81.0% (95%CI: 65.9-91.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple case definitions with high sensitivity and moderate specificity were found, suggesting that the NPR can be used to accurately identify persons with MS.

Use of geographical information systems in multiple sclerosis research: A systematic scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Geographical information system (GIS) and spatial analysis have an emerging role in the understanding and management of health-related outcomes. However, there is a knowledge gap about the extent to which GIS has supported multiple Sclerosis (MS) research. Therefore, this review aimed to explore the types of GIS applications and the complexity of their visualisation in MS research.

METHODS

A systematic scoping review was conducted based on York's five-stage framework. PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science were searched for relevant studies published between 2000 and 2020 using a comprehensive search strategy based on the main concepts related to GIS and MS. Grounded, inductive analysis was conducted to organize studies into meaningful application areas. Further, we developed a tool to assess the visualisation complexity of the selected papers.

RESULTS

Of 3,723 identified unique citations, 42 papers met our inclusion criteria for the final review. One or more of the following types of GIS applications were reported by these studies: (a) thematic mapping (37 papers); (b) spatial cluster detection (16 papers); (c) risk factors detection (16 papers); and (d) health access and planning (two papers). In the majority of studies (88%), the score of visualisation complexity was relatively low: three or less from the range of zero to six.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the number of studies using GIS techniques has dramatically increased in the last decade, the use of GIS in the areas of MS access and planning is still under-researched. Additionally, the capacity of GIS in visualising complex nature of MS care system is not yet fully investigated.

Multiple sclerosis among first- and second-generation immigrant groups in Sweden

OBJECTIVES

Risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) is low among first-generation immigrants in Sweden. We aimed to study incident MS in first- and second-generation immigrant groups.

MATERIALS & METHODS

We included adults aged 18 years and older in Sweden in first-generation (n = 6 042 891) and second-generation (n = 4 860 469) sub-studies. MS was defined via two diagnoses in the Swedish National Patient Register. MS risk was estimated by Cox regression, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), in different immigrant groups, using Swedish-born as referents in first-generation sub-study, and individuals with Swedish-born parents in the second-generation. Full models were adjusted for age, geographic residence in Sweden, educational level, marital status, neighborhood socioeconomic status, and co-morbidity.

RESULTS

MS was diagnosed among 10 746 individuals in the first-generation sub-study, (men 3055 and women 7691), and 11 737 in the second-generation sub-study (men 3549 and women 8188) in the period 1998-2015. The annual incidence rate was higher in Swedish-born compared to foreign-born, 11.5 vs 6.3 per 100 000 person-years (age-standardized to the European standard population). Fully adjusted HRs were lower in first-generation immigrant men (HR 0.72, 0.64-0.82) and women (HR 0.67, 0.62-0.73), and in second-generation immigrant men (HR 0.88, 0.79-0.97) and women (HR 0.79; 0.73-0.84). Among first-generation immigrants, lower HRs were found in most groups.

SIGNIFICANCE

The MS risk was lower in first- and second-generation immigrants compared to Swedish-born or individuals with Swedish-born parents.

Prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Latin America and its relationship with European migration

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, degenerative autoimmune inflammatory disease of the central nervous system. The prevalence is different in every continent, changing according to geographical and environmental characteristics. The areas with the highest prevalence in the world are Europe and North America. In Latin America, the prevalence is higher in areas where there was greater European migration, as in the case of Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay and Mexico, and there have been no identified cases amongst native Indian populations. It should be considered that environmental factors may influence the prevalence of MS in Latin America, and it seems as if there are protective factors such as exposure to ultraviolet radiation and the presence of parasitosis.

Does the changing sex ratio of multiple sclerosis give opportunities for intervention?

In several international studies, an increasing women-to-men (w/m) ratio in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) has been reported. Such sex ratios have been analysed by year of onset or by year of birth. In a Swedish study, data from the Swedish MS register (SMSreg) were used to analyse the w/m ratio in Sweden. The sex ratio was analysed both by year of birth (8834 patients) and by year of onset (9098 patients). No increased w/m ratio was seen in this study. The age-specific sex ratio did not demonstrate any significant changes. However, a new investigation of the sex ratio in Sweden, based on data from all available data sources (19,510 patients), showed a significantly increased w/m ratio of MS in Sweden from 1.70 to 2.67. Environmental factors such as cigarette smoking, hormonal factors and nutrition are of interest in this context, but the cause of the increasing w/m ratio in MS is yet not possible to explain.

The outcome spectrum of multiple sclerosis: disability, mortality, and a cluster of predictors from onset

Interest in the long-term natural history of multiple sclerosis (MS) is being revived, as disability endpoints become increasingly important with the advent of highly efficacious long range but potentially harmful drugs. MS had an increasingly benign course, probably due to better assessment and changing diagnostic criteria. Incidence cohorts reduce inclusion bias, capturing both extreme benign and severe cases. We conducted a 50-year follow-up of an incidence cohort of Gothenburg residents with MS onset in 1950-1964 (n = 254; 212 with an initial relapsing-remitting course and 42 with a monophasic course, diagnostic criteria according to Poser). Patients were followed longitudinally until censoring, death, or study termination in 2012 and evaluated using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression analysis. Median time to secondary progression was 15 years. Median time to EDSS6 and EDSS7 was 26 and 48 years (n = 254), respectively. The cumulative risk of reaching EDSS6 was 50% at 55 years of age and 80% at 80 years of age (n = 212). A score based on a cluster of clinical features at onset predicted secondary progression, EDSS6, EDSS7, and EDSS10 (hazard ratio 1.6-2.3 per score unit for women, 0.99-1.49 for men). This score predicted the disease course during five decades indirectly, by predicting time to secondary progression. Age at onset predicted the course in men, with 3-6% yearly increase in the risk of reaching disability milestones. The present incidence cohort provided hard outcome data in untreated patients over several decades.

Evolution of multiple sclerosis in France since the beginning of hepatitis B vaccination

Since the implementation of the mass vaccination campaign against hepatitis B in France, the appearance of multiple sclerosis, sometimes occurring in the aftermath of vaccinations, led to the publication of epidemiological international studies. This was also justified by the sharp increase in the annual incidence of multiple sclerosis reported to the French health insurance in the mid-1990s. Almost 20 years later, a retrospective reflection can be sketched from these official data and also from the national pharmacovigilance agency. Statistical data from these latter sources seem to show a significant correlation between the number of hepatitis B vaccinations performed and the declaration to the pharmacovigilance of multiple sclerosis occurring between 1 and 2 years later. The application of the Hill's criteria to these data indicates that the correlation between hepatitis B vaccine and multiple sclerosis may be causal.

High nationwide incidence of multiple sclerosis in Sweden

Over recent years increased MS incidence, primarily in women, has been reported. We recently reported an unexpectedly high MS prevalence of 189/100,000 in Sweden. In the present study we estimated the nationwide age- and gender-specific MS incidence and the sex ratio in Sweden between 2001 and 2008. MS patients were identified by linking two nationwide health data registers, and the Swedish population register. The earliest registered date of MS diagnosis was determined. By logistic regression, the probability of the date of MS diagnosis being within the incidence period, depending on age and time was estimated for a subset of patients and applied to other patients. By Poisson regression, the hazard functions for the incidence of MS diagnosis were estimated. The expected number of MS patients was 7,361.4. The incidence in the average population of 9,054,658 was 10.2 per 100,000 person-years, and 6.2 and 14.0 per 100,000 person-years for men and women, respectively. The crude female to male ratio was 2.26. No increase of incidence or change of sex ratio was observed from 2001 to 2008. In conclusion, the average MS incidence in Sweden from 2001 to 2008 was 10.2 per 100.000, which was considerably higher than previous regional Swedish estimates of 4.3–6.4. No increase of female to male ratio of MS during the study period was observed. We provide supplementary data that can be used as tools for examining excess MS risk in different study materials.

Identity-by-descent mapping in a Scandinavian multiple sclerosis cohort

In an attempt to map chromosomal regions carrying rare gene variants contributing to the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS), we identified segments shared identical-by-descent (IBD) using the software BEAGLE 4.0's refined IBD analysis. IBD mapping aims at identifying segments inherited from a common ancestor and shared more frequently in case–case pairs. A total of 2106 MS patients of Nordic origin and 624 matched controls were genotyped on Illumina Human Quad 660 chip and an additional 1352 ethnically matched controls typed on Illumina HumanHap 550 and Illumina 1M were added. The quality control left a total of 441 731 markers for the analysis. After identification of segments shared by descent and significance testing, a filter function for markers with low IBD sharing was applied. Four regions on chromosomes 5, 9, 14 and 19 were found to be significantly associated with the risk for MS. However, all markers but for one were located telomerically, including the very distal markers. For methodological reasons, such segments have a low sharing of IBD signals and are prone to be false positives. One marker on chromosome 19 reached genome-wide significance and was not one of the distal markers. This marker was located within the GNA11 gene, which contains no previous association with MS. We conclude that IBD mapping is not sufficiently powered to identify MS risk loci even in ethnically relatively homogenous populations, or that alternatively rare variants are not adequately present.

Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults worldwide and approximately half of those affected are in Europe. The assessment of differential incidence and prevalence across populations can reveal spatial, temporal and demographic patterns which are important for identifying genetic and environmental factors contributing to MS. However, study methodologies vary and the quality of the methods can influence the estimates. This study aimed to systematically review European studies of incidence and prevalence of MS and to provide a quantitative assessment of their methodological quality.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was performed to obtain all original population-based studies of MS incidence and prevalence in European populations conducted and published between January 1985 and January 2011. Only peer-reviewed full-text articles published in English or French were included. All abstracts were screened for eligibility and two trained reviewers abstracted the data and graded the quality of each study using a tool specifically designed for this study.

RESULTS

There were 123 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The study estimates were highly heterogeneous, even within regions or countries. Quality was generally higher in the more recent studies, which also tended to use current diagnostic criteria. Prevalence and incidence estimates tended to be higher in the more recent studies and were higher in the Nordic countries and in northern regions of the British Isles. With rare exceptions, prevalence and incidence estimates were higher in women with ratios as high as 3:1. Few studies examined ethnicity. Epidemiological data at the national level was uncommon and there were marked geographical disparities in available data, with large areas of Europe unrepresented and other regions well-represented in the literature. Only 37% of the studies provided standardized estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the breadth of the literature on the epidemiology of MS in Europe, inter-study comparisons are hampered by the lack of standardization. Further research should focus on regions not yet studied and the evaluation of ethnic differences in MS prevalence and incidence. National-level studies using current diagnostic criteria, validated case definitions and similar age- and sex-standardization would allow better geographical comparisons.

Updating the mild encephalitis hypothesis of schizophrenia

Schizophrenia seems to be a heterogeneous disorder. Emerging evidence indicates that low level neuroinflammation (LLNI) may not occur infrequently. Many infectious agents with low overall pathogenicity are risk factors for psychoses including schizophrenia and for autoimmune disorders. According to the mild encephalitis (ME) hypothesis, LLNI represents the core pathogenetic mechanism in a schizophrenia subgroup that has syndromal overlap with other psychiatric disorders. ME may be triggered by infections, autoimmunity, toxicity, or trauma. A 'late hit' and gene-environment interaction are required to explain major findings about schizophrenia, and both aspects would be consistent with the ME hypothesis. Schizophrenia risk genes stay rather constant within populations despite a resulting low number of progeny; this may result from advantages associated with risk genes, e.g., an improved immune response, which may act protectively within changing environments, although they are associated with the disadvantage of increased susceptibility to psychotic disorders. Specific schizophrenic symptoms may arise with instances of LLNI when certain brain functional systems are involved, in addition to being shaped by pre-existing liability factors. Prodrome phase and the transition to a diseased status may be related to LLNI processes emerging and varying over time. The variability in the course of schizophrenia resembles the varying courses of autoimmune disorders, which result from three required factors: genes, the environment, and the immune system. Preliminary criteria for subgrouping neurodevelopmental, genetic, ME, and other types of schizophrenias are provided. A rare example of ME schizophrenia may be observed in Borna disease virus infection. Neurodevelopmental schizophrenia due to early infections has been estimated by others to explain approximately 30% of cases, but the underlying pathomechanisms of transition to disease remain in question. LLNI (e.g. from reactivation related to persistent infection) may be involved and other pathomechanisms including dysfunction of the blood-brain barrier or the blood-CSF barrier, CNS-endogenous immunity and the volume transmission mode balancing wiring transmission (the latter represented mainly by synaptic transmission, which is often described as being disturbed in schizophrenia). Volume transmission is linked to CSF signaling; and together could represent a common pathogenetic link for the distributed brain dysfunction, dysconnectivity, and brain structural abnormalities observed in schizophrenia. In addition, CSF signaling may extend into peripheral tissues via the CSF outflow pathway along brain nerves and peripheral nerves, and it may explain the peripheral topology of neuronal dysfunctions found, like in olfactory dysfunction, dysautonomia, and even in peripheral tissues, i.e., the muscle lesions that were found in 50% of cases. Modulating factors in schizophrenia, such as stress, hormones, and diet, are also modulating factors in the immune response. Considering recent investigations of CSF, the ME schizophrenia subgroup may constitute approximately 40% of cases.

Work capacity and health-related quality of life among individuals with multiple sclerosis reduced by fatigue: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Among individuals diagnosed with the chronic neurologic disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a majority suffers from fatigue, which strongly influences their every-day-life. The aim of this study was to investigate work capacity and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a group of MS patients and also to investigate if work capacity and HRQoL could be predicted by background factors, fatigue, heat sensitivity, cognitive dysfunction, emotional distress or degree of disability.

METHODS

A descriptive, cross-sectional, designed survey was undertaken A questionnaire was sent to 323 individuals diagnosed with MS, aged between 20 and 65 years, with physical disability on the expanded disability status score (EDSS) in the interval 0 ≥ EDSS ≤ 6.5, living in Östergötland county in eastern Sweden. Questions on background factors, occupation and work, together with the health-related quality of life short form instrument (SF-36), the fatigue severity scale (FSS), the perceived deficit questionnaire (PDQ) and the hospital anxiety depression scale (HAD) were posed. Associations between variables were analyzed using Pearson's and Spearman's correlations. Differences between groups were tested using the Chi-square test, the Mann Whitney U-test, and the Student's t-test. Predictive factors were analyzed using multiple linear and multiple logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of those who completed the questionnaire (n = 257, 79.6%), 59.8% were working. Work capacity was found significantly more among men (p < 0.005), those with a higher level of education (p < 0.001), those reporting less fatigue (p < 0.001), and those having no heat sensitivity (p = 0.004). For work capacity, significant predictors were low physical disability (EDSS), low fatigue, higher level of education, male sex and lower age. Those with work capacity showed significantly higher HRQoL than those who had no work capacity (p < 0.001). Levels of fatigue, cognition and emotional distress were found to be major contributing factors for HRQoL.

CONCLUSIONS

Work capacity and HRQoL among individuals diagnosed with MS are highly influenced by fatigue which can be considered as a key symptom. Work capacity was influenced by heat-sensitivity, cognitive difficulties and emotional distress and significant predictive factors besides fatigue, were physical disability (EDSS), age, sex, and level of education. Remaining at work also gives a better HRQoL.

High risk of cardiovascular diseases after diagnosis of multiple sclerosis

Background:

Studies of the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) have the potential to improve our understanding of the etiology of and the heterogeneity of prognosis and outcomes.

Objectives:

To investigate the risk of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) or Flutter in MS patients with different ethnicity, both female and male.

Methods:

Using Poisson regression, we performed a nationwide study in Sweden to investigate the association between the diagnosis of MS and the risk of MI, stroke, HF, or AF/Flutter in 8281 patients who were hospitalized due to MS from 1987 through 2009, plus 76,640 matched control individuals. We performed stratified analyses by sex, age at follow-up and country of birth.

Results:

Among MS patients, the incidence rate ratio for MI was 1.85 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59 to 2.15), for stroke was 1.71 (95% CI 1.46 to 2.00), for HF was 1.97 (95% CI 1.52 to 2.56) and for AF/Flutter was 0.63 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.87), as compared with individuals without MS. The increased risks were particularly prominent for women. These associations remained after stratification by sex, age and country of birth.

Conclusion:

We recommend careful surveillance and preventive CVDs measures among MS patients, particularly among the women.

Geomagnetic disturbances may be environmental risk factor for multiple sclerosis: an ecological study of 111 locations in 24 countries

BACKGROUND

We noticed that a hypothesis based on the effect of geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) has the ability to explain special features of multiple sclerosis (MS). Areas around geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (GM60L) experience the greatest amount of GMD. The easiest way to evaluate our hypothesis was to test the association of MS prevalence (MSP) with angular distance to geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (AMAG60) and compare it with the known association of MS with geographical latitude (GL). We did the same with angular distance to geographic 60 degree latitude (AGRAPH60) as a control.

METHODS

English written papers with MSP keywords, done in Europe (EUR), North America (NA) or Australasia (AUS) were retrieved from the PubMed. Geomagnetic coordinates were determined for each location and AMAG60 was calculated as absolute value of numerical difference between its geomagnetic latitude from GM60L. By an ecological study with using meta-regression analyses, the relationship of MSP with GL, AMAG60 and AGRAPH60 were evaluated separately. MSP data were weighted by square root of number of prevalent cases. Models were compared by their adjusted R square (AR2) and standard error of estimate (SEE).

RESULTS

111 MSP data were entered in the study. In each continent, AMAG60 had the best correlation with MSP, the largest AR2 (0.47, 0.42 and 0.84 for EUR, NA and AUS, respectively) and the least SEE. Merging both hemispheres data, AMAG60 explained 56% of MSP variations with the least SEE (R = 0.75, AR2 = 0.56, SEE = 57), while GL explained 17% (R = 0.41, AR2 = 0.17, SEE = 78.5) and AGRAPH60 explained 12% of that variations with the highest SEE (R = 0.35, AR2 = 0.12, SEE = 80.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirmed that AMAG60 is the best describer of MSP variations and has the strongest association with MSP distribution. They clarified that the well-known latitudinal gradient of MSP may be actually a gradient related to GM60L. Moreover, the location of GM60L can elucidate why MSP has parabolic and linear gradient in the north and south hemisphere, respectively. This preliminary evaluation supported that GMD can be the mysterious environmental risk factor for MS. We believe that this hypothesis deserves to be considered for further validation studies.

Sex ratio of multiple sclerosis in the National Swedish MS Register (SMSreg)

BACKGROUND

Sex ratio in multiple sclerosis has been reported from several geographical areas. The disease is more common in women. In Europe the female-to-male ratio varies from 1.1 to 3.4. A recent study from Canada has reported a significant increase, with time, in female-to-male ratio in multiple sclerosis over the last 100 years.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyse any change in sex ratio in multiple sclerosis in the Swedish population.

METHODS

Data from the Swedish MS Register and data from the Swedish National Statistics Office were used to estimate sex ratio by year of birth and year of onset.

RESULTS

In the analysis of sex ratio by year of birth there were 8834 patients (6271 women and 2563 men) born between 1931 and 1985. The mean women-to-men ratio was 2.62. No clear trend was noted for the women-to-men ratio by year of birth (Spearman's rho = 0.345, p = 0.298, n = 11). The number of patients analysed by year of onset was 9098 during the time period 1946 until 2005. The mean women-to-men ratio was 2.57. No significant change in women-to-men ratio (Spearman's rho = -0.007, p = 0.983, n = 12) with time was observed.

CONCLUSION

There is no evidence for an increasing women-to-men ratio with time amongst Swedish multiple sclerosis patients.

Cost of disorders of the brain in Europe 2010

BACKGROUND

The spectrum of disorders of the brain is large, covering hundreds of disorders that are listed in either the mental or neurological disorder chapters of the established international diagnostic classification systems. These disorders have a high prevalence as well as short- and long-term impairments and disabilities. Therefore they are an emotional, financial and social burden to the patients, their families and their social network. In a 2005 landmark study, we estimated for the first time the annual cost of 12 major groups of disorders of the brain in Europe and gave a conservative estimate of €386 billion for the year 2004. This estimate was limited in scope and conservative due to the lack of sufficiently comprehensive epidemiological and/or economic data on several important diagnostic groups. We are now in a position to substantially improve and revise the 2004 estimates. In the present report we cover 19 major groups of disorders, 7 more than previously, of an increased range of age groups and more cost items. We therefore present much improved cost estimates. Our revised estimates also now include the new EU member states, and hence a population of 514 million people.

AIMS

To estimate the number of persons with defined disorders of the brain in Europe in 2010, the total cost per person related to each disease in terms of direct and indirect costs, and an estimate of the total cost per disorder and country.

METHODS

The best available estimates of the prevalence and cost per person for 19 groups of disorders of the brain (covering well over 100 specific disorders) were identified via a systematic review of the published literature. Together with the twelve disorders included in 2004, the following range of mental and neurologic groups of disorders is covered: addictive disorders, affective disorders, anxiety disorders, brain tumor, childhood and adolescent disorders (developmental disorders), dementia, eating disorders, epilepsy, mental retardation, migraine, multiple sclerosis, neuromuscular disorders, Parkinson's disease, personality disorders, psychotic disorders, sleep disorders, somatoform disorders, stroke, and traumatic brain injury. Epidemiologic panels were charged to complete the literature review for each disorder in order to estimate the 12-month prevalence, and health economic panels were charged to estimate best cost-estimates. A cost model was developed to combine the epidemiologic and economic data and estimate the total cost of each disorder in each of 30 European countries (EU27+Iceland, Norway and Switzerland). The cost model was populated with national statistics from Eurostat to adjust all costs to 2010 values, converting all local currencies to Euro, imputing costs for countries where no data were available, and aggregating country estimates to purchasing power parity adjusted estimates for the total cost of disorders of the brain in Europe 2010.

RESULTS

The total cost of disorders of the brain was estimated at €798 billion in 2010. Direct costs constitute the majority of costs (37% direct healthcare costs and 23% direct non-medical costs) whereas the remaining 40% were indirect costs associated with patients' production losses. On average, the estimated cost per person with a disorder of the brain in Europe ranged between €285 for headache and €30,000 for neuromuscular disorders. The European per capita cost of disorders of the brain was €1550 on average but varied by country. The cost (in billion €PPP 2010) of the disorders of the brain included in this study was as follows: addiction: €65.7; anxiety disorders: €74.4; brain tumor: €5.2; child/adolescent disorders: €21.3; dementia: €105.2; eating disorders: €0.8; epilepsy: €13.8; headache: €43.5; mental retardation: €43.3; mood disorders: €113.4; multiple sclerosis: €14.6; neuromuscular disorders: €7.7; Parkinson's disease: €13.9; personality disorders: €27.3; psychotic disorders: €93.9; sleep disorders: €35.4; somatoform disorder: €21.2; stroke: €64.1; traumatic brain injury: €33.0. It should be noted that the revised estimate of those disorders included in the previous 2004 report constituted €477 billion, by and large confirming our previous study results after considering the inflation and population increase since 2004. Further, our results were consistent with administrative data on the health care expenditure in Europe, and comparable to previous studies on the cost of specific disorders in Europe. Our estimates were lower than comparable estimates from the US.

DISCUSSION

This study was based on the best currently available data in Europe and our model enabled extrapolation to countries where no data could be found. Still, the scarcity of data is an important source of uncertainty in our estimates and may imply over- or underestimations in some disorders and countries. Even though this review included many disorders, diagnoses, age groups and cost items that were omitted in 2004, there are still remaining disorders that could not be included due to limitations in the available data. We therefore consider our estimate of the total cost of the disorders of the brain in Europe to be conservative. In terms of the health economic burden outlined in this report, disorders of the brain likely constitute the number one economic challenge for European health care, now and in the future. Data presented in this report should be considered by all stakeholder groups, including policy makers, industry and patient advocacy groups, to reconsider the current science, research and public health agenda and define a coordinated plan of action of various levels to address the associated challenges.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Political action is required in light of the present high cost of disorders of the brain. Funding of brain research must be increased; care for patients with brain disorders as well as teaching at medical schools and other health related educations must be quantitatively and qualitatively improved, including psychological treatments. The current move of the pharmaceutical industry away from brain related indications must be halted and reversed. Continued research into the cost of the many disorders not included in the present study is warranted. It is essential that not only the EU but also the national governments forcefully support these initiatives.

High nationwide prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Few nationwide multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence studies have been published. In Scandinavia, the nationwide MS prevalence was 173/100,000 in Denmark 2005 and 100/100,000 in Iceland 1990.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim with the present study was to determine the first population-based nationwide MS prevalence in Sweden, based on observed, registered patients and to investigate the presence of a north-south gradient of MS prevalence.

METHODS

By linking the Swedish National Patient Register, the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and the Swedish Total Population Register we obtained the number of patients who were diagnosed with MS before 2009, and who were registered, alive and resident in Sweden on the prevalence date 31 December 2008. We calculated the gender-specific nationwide MS prevalence in 1-year age intervals. The relationship between MS risk and latitude was studied in a logistic regression model including all individuals in the population of Sweden.

RESULTS

The number of registered MS patients in 2008 was 17,485 out of the Swedish population of 9,256,347. The overall MS prevalence was 188.9/100,000 (95% CI 186.1-191.7), 113.4 (95% CI 110.3-116.5) for men and 263.6 (95% CI 258.9-268.3) for women. The female to male ratio was 2.35:1. The prevalence of MS significantly increased for each degree of north latitude with 1.5% in men (p = 0.013) and 1% in women (p = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

The MS prevalence of 188.9/100,000 in Sweden is among the highest nationwide prevalence estimates in the world. In Sweden, the risk of MS increases with increasing north latitude for both men and women.

The changing demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis epidemiology

The uneven distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) across populations can be attributed to differences in genes and the environment and their interaction. Prevalence and incidence surveys could be affected by inaccuracy of diagnosis and ascertainment, and prevalence also depends on survival. These sources of error might play a part in the geographical and temporal variations. Our literature search and meta-regression analyses indicated an almost universal increase in prevalence and incidence of MS over time; they challenge the well accepted theory of a latitudinal gradient of incidence of MS in Europe and North America, while this gradient is still apparent for Australia and New Zealand; and suggest a general, although not ubiquitous, increase in incidence of MS in females. The latter observation should prompt epidemiological studies to focus on changes in lifestyle in females. New insights into gene-environment and gene-gene interactions complicate interpretations of demographic epidemiology and have made obsolete the idea of simple causative associations between genes or the environment and MS.