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Bhuia MR, Islam MA, Nwaru BI, Weir CJ, Sheikh A. Models for estimating and projecting global, regional and national prevalence and disease burden of asthma: a systematic review. J Glob Health 2020; 10:020409. [PMID: 33437461 PMCID: PMC7774028 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.10.020409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Statistical models are increasingly being used to estimate and project the prevalence and burden of asthma. Given substantial variations in these estimates, there is a need to critically assess the properties of these models and assess their transparency and reproducibility. We aimed to critically appraise the strengths, limitations and reproducibility of existing models for estimating and projecting the global, regional and national prevalence and burden of asthma. Methods We undertook a systematic review, which involved searching Medline, Embase, World Health Organization Library and Information Services (WHOLIS) and Web of Science from 1980 to 2017 for modelling studies. Two reviewers independently assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion and then assessed their strengths, limitations and reproducibility using pre-defined quality criteria. Data were descriptively and narratively synthesised. Results We identified 108 eligible studies, which employed a total of 51 models: 42 models were used to derive national level estimates, two models for regional estimates, four models for global and regional estimates and three models for global, regional and national estimates. Ten models were used to estimate the prevalence of asthma, 27 models estimated the burden of asthma – including, health care service utilisation, disability-adjusted life years, mortality and direct and indirect costs of asthma – and 14 models estimated both the prevalence and burden of asthma. Logistic and linear regression models were most widely used for national estimates. Different versions of the DisMod-MR- Bayesian meta-regression models and Cause Of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) were predominantly used for global, regional and national estimates. Most models suffered from a number of methodological limitations – in particular, poor reporting, insufficient quality and lack of reproducibility. Conclusions Whilst global, regional and national estimates of asthma prevalence and burden continue to inform health policy and investment decisions on asthma, most models used to derive these estimates lack the required reproducibility. There is a need for better-constructed models for estimating and projecting the prevalence and disease burden of asthma and a related need for better reporting of models, and making data and code available to facilitate replication.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Romel Bhuia
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research (AUKCAR), Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.,Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh
| | - Md Atiqul Islam
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh
| | - Bright I Nwaru
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research (AUKCAR), Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.,Krefting Research Centre, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Sweden.,Wallenberg Centre for Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Christopher J Weir
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research (AUKCAR), Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.,Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, Centre for Population Health Sciences, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research (AUKCAR), Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Wang Y, Liao J, Zhong Y, Zhang C, Li X, Wang G. Predictive Value of Combining Inflammatory Biomarkers and Rapid Decline of FEV 1 for COPD in Chinese Population: A Prospective Cohort Study. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis 2019; 14:2825-2833. [PMID: 31824147 PMCID: PMC6901061 DOI: 10.2147/copd.s223869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2019] [Accepted: 11/26/2019] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background In China, the high prevalence and mortality rate of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and the poor intervention effect makes it into a heavy social burden. The main reason is that the current diagnosis of COPD mainly based on the static lung function, which is difficult for early intervention. Through matching a predictive model for high-risk groups of COPD that rewards FEV1 rapid decline as the core, we will establish the early warning model and prove its validity and socio-economic value. Methods This is a multi-center, prospective, cohort study. A total of 10,000 people aged 40∼75 without lung disease will be recruited and followed for 3 years. Some questionnaires such as St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), income class, educational level, comorbidity, smoking habit, and biomass smoke exposure history will be collected. The baseline level of Interleukin 6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive Protein (hs-CRP), microRNAs-23a (miR-23a) in peripheral blood and pH value in exhaled breath condensate (EBC) will be measured, lung spirometry will be tested in the first, second, and fourth years. Primary outcome is the incidence of COPD, multivariate regression analysis will be used to establish the predictive model for COPD in China. Discussion With the rapid decline of lung function as the core and the baseline inflammatory biomarkers in peripheral blood and pH of the exhaled breath condensate as affecting factors, a predictive model to achieve early detection of high-risk COPD groups will be established and promoted. Trial registration This study has been registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov (registration identifier: NCT03532893) on 21 May 2018, https://register.clinicaltrials.gov.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunxia Wang
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Jiping Liao
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Yijue Zhong
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Cheng Zhang
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Xueying Li
- Department of Medical Statistics, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Guangfa Wang
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China
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3
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Burgel PR, Laurendeau C, Raherison C, Fuhrman C, Roche N. An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France. Respir Res 2018; 19:130. [PMID: 29950169 PMCID: PMC6022451 DOI: 10.1186/s12931-018-0827-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2018] [Accepted: 06/08/2018] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Anticipating the future burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is required to develop adequate public health policies. Methods A dynamic population model was built to estimate COPD prevalence by 2025 using data collected during the most recent large general population study on COPD prevalence in France (2005) as baseline values. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the effect of variations in key input variables. Results The model predicted a steady increase in crude COPD prevalence among subjects aged≥45 years from 2005 (prevalence estimate: 84.51‰) to 2025 (projected prevalence: 95.76‰, + 0.56‰/yr). There was a 4-fold increase in the prevalence of GOLD grade 3–4 cases, a 23% relative increase in women and a 21% relative increase in subjects ≥75 years. In sensitivity analyses, these temporal trends were robust. Factors associated with > 5% relative variations in projected 2025 prevalence estimates were baseline prevalence and severity distribution, incidence in women and severity of incident cases, transition rates between severity grades, and mortality. Conclusions Projections of future COPD epidemiology consistently predict an increase in the prevalence of moderate-to-very severe COPD, especially due to increases among women and subjects aged ≥75 years. Developing robust prediction models requires collecting reliable data on current COPD epidemiology. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12931-018-0827-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre-Régis Burgel
- Respiratory Medicine, Hôpital Cochin, AP-HP, EA2511, Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 75014, Paris, France. .,Service de Pneumologie, Hôpital Cochin, 27 Rue du Faubourg St Jacques, 75014, Paris, France.
| | | | - Chantal Raherison
- U1219 institut de santé publique, d'épidémiologie et de développement (ISPED), Service des maladies respiratoires, Université Bordeaux-Segalen, CHU de Bordeaux, 33600, Pessac, France
| | - Claire Fuhrman
- Respiratory Medicine, Centre Hospitalier Intercommunal de Créteil, 94000, Créteil, France
| | - Nicolas Roche
- Respiratory Medicine, Hôpital Cochin, AP-HP, EA2511, Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 75014, Paris, France
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Khakban A, Sin DD, FitzGerald JM, McManus BM, Ng R, Hollander Z, Sadatsafavi M. The Projected Epidemic of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Hospitalizations over the Next 15 Years. A Population-based Perspective. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2017; 195:287-291. [PMID: 27626508 DOI: 10.1164/rccm.201606-1162pp] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Amir Khakban
- 1 Collaboration for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences.,2 Institute for Heart and Lung Health, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; and
| | - Don D Sin
- 4 Department of Medicine (Respiratory Division).,2 Institute for Heart and Lung Health, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; and.,3 Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, St Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - J Mark FitzGerald
- 4 Department of Medicine (Respiratory Division).,5 Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Evaluation.,2 Institute for Heart and Lung Health, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; and
| | - Bruce M McManus
- 6 Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine.,7 Centre of Excellence for Prevention of Organ Failure (PROOF), and.,2 Institute for Heart and Lung Health, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; and.,3 Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, St Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Raymond Ng
- 7 Centre of Excellence for Prevention of Organ Failure (PROOF), and.,8 Department of Computer Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.,2 Institute for Heart and Lung Health, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; and.,3 Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, St Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Zsuzsanna Hollander
- 7 Centre of Excellence for Prevention of Organ Failure (PROOF), and.,2 Institute for Heart and Lung Health, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; and.,3 Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, St Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Mohsen Sadatsafavi
- 1 Collaboration for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences.,4 Department of Medicine (Respiratory Division).,5 Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Evaluation.,2 Institute for Heart and Lung Health, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; and
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Ahmed R, Robinson R, Mortimer K. The epidemiology of noncommunicable respiratory disease in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa. Malawi Med J 2017; 29:203-211. [PMID: 28955434 PMCID: PMC5610297 DOI: 10.4314/mmj.v29i2.24] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a major and increasing global health issue. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that NCDs represent 63% of all global deaths of which 3.9 million are due to chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in particular. COPD is now the third most common cause of death globally; 90% of these deaths occur in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs). COPD affects 329 million people, almost 5% of the world's population. In addition, asthma affects 334 million people, again representing almost 5% of the world's population. There is limited literature published on the epidemiology of COPD and Asthma from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Both diseases are under-diagnosed and underestimated in both SSA and MENA regions. The burden of COPD in sub-Saharan Africa is disputed and reports offer variable prevalence estimates, ranging from 4.1% to almost 22.2%. SSA and MENA countries report similar mortality rates from COPD of 18 per 100,000 population (2001 data). Asthma is a less common cause of death than COPD but is a major cause of morbidity; WHO estimates that there are 250,000 deaths per year from asthma, mainly in LMICs and it remains in the top twenty causes of disability in children globally. Risk factors for CRD are genetic and environmental; the latter dominated by air pollution exposures including tobacco smoke, household air pollution, outdoor air pollution and occupational exposures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rana Ahmed
- The Epidemiological Laboratory, Khartoum, Sudan
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Ryan Robinson
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Kevin Mortimer
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
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McLean S, Hoogendoorn M, Hoogenveen RT, Feenstra TL, Wild S, Simpson CR, Mölken MRV, Sheikh A. Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030. Sci Rep 2016; 6:31893. [PMID: 27583987 PMCID: PMC5008118 DOI: 10.1038/srep31893] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2016] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
We aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare costs and number of deaths among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England and Scotland 2011–2030. We adapted the Dutch COPD Model by using English and Scottish demographic, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, smoking prevalence and mortality data to make projections. In England, the prevalence of COPD was estimated to be 1.79% (95% uncertainty interval 1.77–1.81) in 2011, increasing to 2.19% (1.85–2.33) by 2030. In Scotland, prevalence was 2.03% (1.96–2.10) in 2011 increasing to 2.20% (1.98–2.40) in 2030. These increases were driven by more women developing COPD. Annual direct healthcare costs of COPD in England were estimated to increase from £1.50 billon (1.18–2.50) in 2011 to £2.32 (1.85–3.08) billion in 2030. In Scotland, costs increased from £159 million (128–268) in 2011 to £207 (165–274) million in 2030. The deaths in England were estimated to increase from 99,200 (92,500–128,500) in 2011, to 129,400 (126,400–133,400) by 2030. In Scotland, in 2011 there were 9,700 (9,000–12,300) deaths and 13,900 (13,400–14,500) deaths in 2030. The number of people with COPD will increase substantially over the coming years in England and Scotland, particularly in females. Services need to adapt to this increasing demand.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susannah McLean
- Allergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | - Martine Hoogendoorn
- Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rudolf T Hoogenveen
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Talitha L Feenstra
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Sarah Wild
- Allergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | - Colin R Simpson
- Allergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | | | - Aziz Sheikh
- Allergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
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