Models for estimating projections for disease prevalence and burden: a systematic review focusing on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Models for estimating and projecting global, regional and national prevalence and disease burden of asthma: a systematic review

Background

Statistical models are increasingly being used to estimate and project the prevalence and burden of asthma. Given substantial variations in these estimates, there is a need to critically assess the properties of these models and assess their transparency and reproducibility. We aimed to critically appraise the strengths, limitations and reproducibility of existing models for estimating and projecting the global, regional and national prevalence and burden of asthma.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review, which involved searching Medline, Embase, World Health Organization Library and Information Services (WHOLIS) and Web of Science from 1980 to 2017 for modelling studies. Two reviewers independently assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion and then assessed their strengths, limitations and reproducibility using pre-defined quality criteria. Data were descriptively and narratively synthesised.

Results

We identified 108 eligible studies, which employed a total of 51 models: 42 models were used to derive national level estimates, two models for regional estimates, four models for global and regional estimates and three models for global, regional and national estimates. Ten models were used to estimate the prevalence of asthma, 27 models estimated the burden of asthma – including, health care service utilisation, disability-adjusted life years, mortality and direct and indirect costs of asthma – and 14 models estimated both the prevalence and burden of asthma. Logistic and linear regression models were most widely used for national estimates. Different versions of the DisMod-MR- Bayesian meta-regression models and Cause Of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) were predominantly used for global, regional and national estimates. Most models suffered from a number of methodological limitations – in particular, poor reporting, insufficient quality and lack of reproducibility.

Conclusions

Whilst global, regional and national estimates of asthma prevalence and burden continue to inform health policy and investment decisions on asthma, most models used to derive these estimates lack the required reproducibility. There is a need for better-constructed models for estimating and projecting the prevalence and disease burden of asthma and a related need for better reporting of models, and making data and code available to facilitate replication.

Predictive Value of Combining Inflammatory Biomarkers and Rapid Decline of FEV1 for COPD in Chinese Population: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

In China, the high prevalence and mortality rate of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and the poor intervention effect makes it into a heavy social burden. The main reason is that the current diagnosis of COPD mainly based on the static lung function, which is difficult for early intervention. Through matching a predictive model for high-risk groups of COPD that rewards FEV₁ rapid decline as the core, we will establish the early warning model and prove its validity and socio-economic value.

Methods

This is a multi-center, prospective, cohort study. A total of 10,000 people aged 40∼75 without lung disease will be recruited and followed for 3 years. Some questionnaires such as St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), income class, educational level, comorbidity, smoking habit, and biomass smoke exposure history will be collected. The baseline level of Interleukin 6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive Protein (hs-CRP), microRNAs-23a (miR-23a) in peripheral blood and pH value in exhaled breath condensate (EBC) will be measured, lung spirometry will be tested in the first, second, and fourth years. Primary outcome is the incidence of COPD, multivariate regression analysis will be used to establish the predictive model for COPD in China.

Discussion

With the rapid decline of lung function as the core and the baseline inflammatory biomarkers in peripheral blood and pH of the exhaled breath condensate as affecting factors, a predictive model to achieve early detection of high-risk COPD groups will be established and promoted.

Trial registration

This study has been registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov (registration identifier: NCT03532893) on 21 May 2018, https://register.clinicaltrials.gov.

An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France

Background

Anticipating the future burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is required to develop adequate public health policies.

Methods

A dynamic population model was built to estimate COPD prevalence by 2025 using data collected during the most recent large general population study on COPD prevalence in France (2005) as baseline values. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the effect of variations in key input variables.

Results

The model predicted a steady increase in crude COPD prevalence among subjects aged≥45 years from 2005 (prevalence estimate: 84.51‰) to 2025 (projected prevalence: 95.76‰, + 0.56‰/yr). There was a 4-fold increase in the prevalence of GOLD grade 3–4 cases, a 23% relative increase in women and a 21% relative increase in subjects ≥75 years. In sensitivity analyses, these temporal trends were robust. Factors associated with > 5% relative variations in projected 2025 prevalence estimates were baseline prevalence and severity distribution, incidence in women and severity of incident cases, transition rates between severity grades, and mortality.

Conclusions

Projections of future COPD epidemiology consistently predict an increase in the prevalence of moderate-to-very severe COPD, especially due to increases among women and subjects aged ≥75 years. Developing robust prediction models requires collecting reliable data on current COPD epidemiology.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12931-018-0827-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The epidemiology of noncommunicable respiratory disease in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a major and increasing global health issue. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that NCDs represent 63% of all global deaths of which 3.9 million are due to chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in particular. COPD is now the third most common cause of death globally; 90% of these deaths occur in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs). COPD affects 329 million people, almost 5% of the world's population. In addition, asthma affects 334 million people, again representing almost 5% of the world's population. There is limited literature published on the epidemiology of COPD and Asthma from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Both diseases are under-diagnosed and underestimated in both SSA and MENA regions. The burden of COPD in sub-Saharan Africa is disputed and reports offer variable prevalence estimates, ranging from 4.1% to almost 22.2%. SSA and MENA countries report similar mortality rates from COPD of 18 per 100,000 population (2001 data). Asthma is a less common cause of death than COPD but is a major cause of morbidity; WHO estimates that there are 250,000 deaths per year from asthma, mainly in LMICs and it remains in the top twenty causes of disability in children globally. Risk factors for CRD are genetic and environmental; the latter dominated by air pollution exposures including tobacco smoke, household air pollution, outdoor air pollution and occupational exposures.

Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030

We aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare costs and number of deaths among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England and Scotland 2011–2030. We adapted the Dutch COPD Model by using English and Scottish demographic, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, smoking prevalence and mortality data to make projections. In England, the prevalence of COPD was estimated to be 1.79% (95% uncertainty interval 1.77–1.81) in 2011, increasing to 2.19% (1.85–2.33) by 2030. In Scotland, prevalence was 2.03% (1.96–2.10) in 2011 increasing to 2.20% (1.98–2.40) in 2030. These increases were driven by more women developing COPD. Annual direct healthcare costs of COPD in England were estimated to increase from £1.50 billon (1.18–2.50) in 2011 to £2.32 (1.85–3.08) billion in 2030. In Scotland, costs increased from £159 million (128–268) in 2011 to £207 (165–274) million in 2030. The deaths in England were estimated to increase from 99,200 (92,500–128,500) in 2011, to 129,400 (126,400–133,400) by 2030. In Scotland, in 2011 there were 9,700 (9,000–12,300) deaths and 13,900 (13,400–14,500) deaths in 2030. The number of people with COPD will increase substantially over the coming years in England and Scotland, particularly in females. Services need to adapt to this increasing demand.