Communicating Numerical Risk: Human Factors That Aid Understanding in Health Care

Quality Improvement Intervention for Reducing Acute Treatment Times in Ischemic Stroke: A Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Efficient care processes are crucial to minimize treatment delays and improve outcome after endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in patients with ischemic stroke. A potential means to improve care processes is performance feedback.

Objective

To evaluate the effect of performance feedback to hospitals on treatment times for EVT.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cluster randomized clinical trial was conducted from January 1, 2020, to June 30, 2022. Participants were consecutive adult patients with ischemic stroke who underwent EVT in 13 Dutch hospitals. No patients were excluded. Data analysis took place from March to May 2023.

Intervention

The intervention consisted of feedback on hospital performance using structure, process, and outcome indicators. Indicator scores were based on data from a national quality registry and compared with a benchmark. Performance feedback was provided through a dashboard for local quality improvement teams who developed and implemented improvement plans based on the feedback. Every 6 months, 3 to 4 randomly selected hospitals switched to the intervention condition.

Main Outcome and Measures

The primary outcome was time from door to groin puncture for all patients treated with EVT. Secondary outcomes included door-to-needle time, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at day 2, expanded Treatment in Cerebral Infarction (eTICI) score, and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3 months. The effect of the intervention was estimated with multivariable linear mixed models.

Results

A total of 4747 patients were included (intervention: 2431; control: 2316). Their mean (SD) age was 72 (13) years; 2337 (49.2%) were female and 2410 (50.8%) were male. The median (IQR) baseline NIHSS score was 14 (8-19). Median (IQR) door-to-groin puncture time under the intervention condition was 47 (25-71) minutes, compared with 52 (29-75) minutes under the control condition. The adjusted absolute reduction was 5 minutes (β = -4.8; 95% CI, -9.5 to -0.1; P = .04), corresponding to a relative reduction of 9.2% (95% CI, -18.3% to -0.2%).

Conclusion and Relevance

This study found that performance feedback provided through a dashboard used by local quality improvement teams reduced door-to-groin puncture time for EVT. Implementation of performance feedback in hospitals providing EVT can improve the quality of care for ischemic stroke.

Trial Registration

The Netherlands Trial Register: NL9090.

Associations Between Big-5 Personality Traits, Cognitive Ability, and Climate Beliefs and Behaviours: Results From a Longitudinal UK Birth Cohort

Anthropogenic climate change is an existential threat to both humans and wider biodiversity. However, cumulatively, individuals' actions can help to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Understanding the factors which shape individuals' beliefs about climate change, and their environmental behaviours, is therefore crucial. Here, we explore whether individual differences-Big-5 personality traits and cognitive ability-are associated with climate beliefs and behaviours, using longitudinal data from a UK birth cohort study. Individual differences were measured when the participants were teenagers (aged 13 to 15 years), with climate beliefs and behaviours assessed at approximately age 30 years. These climate beliefs and behaviours included: belief that the climate is changing, concern over climate change, whether humans are to blame for climate change, whether individual actions can mitigate climate change, and whether they were undertaking a range of pro-environmental behaviours for climate reasons (e.g., reducing air travel, reducing meat/dairy consumption). Regression models were used to explore the associations between individual differences and climate belief and behaviour outcomes, adjusting for a range of relevant sociodemographic confounders. Overall, we found consistent positive associations between agreeableness, openness to experience and cognitive ability scores and environmental knowledge and action. Weaker, and more inconsistent, associations were reported for extraversion, conscientiousness and emotional stability. These results suggest that individual differences may shape an individual's beliefs and actions regarding climate change, and potentially indicates groups where climate information campaigns could be targeted.

Using human factors methods to mitigate bias in artificial intelligence-based clinical decision support

OBJECTIVES

To highlight the often overlooked role of user interface (UI) design in mitigating bias in artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support (CDS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This perspective paper discusses the interdependency between AI-based algorithm development and UI design and proposes strategies for increasing the safety and efficacy of CDS.

RESULTS

The role of design in biasing user behavior is well documented in behavioral economics and other disciplines. We offer an example of how UI designs play a role in how bias manifests in our machine learning-based CDS development.

DISCUSSION

Much discussion on bias in AI revolves around data quality and algorithm design; less attention is given to how UI design can exacerbate or mitigate limitations of AI-based applications.

CONCLUSION

This work highlights important considerations including the role of UI design in reinforcing/mitigating bias, human factors methods for identifying issues before an application is released, and risk communication strategies.

From risk communication about asymptomatic atherosclerosis to cognitive and emotional reactions and lifestyle modification

BACKGROUND

Non-adherence in the general population to preventive guidelines on cardiovascular disease calls for an interdisciplinary approach acknowledging psychological factors of relevance for risk communication and lifestyle modification. Evidence is building up regarding the advantage of sharing arterial imaging evidence of subclinical atherosclerosis with asymptomatic individuals, but there is limited understanding of how this relates to mechanisms of importance for behavioural change. Longitudinal studies on associations between patients' reactions and lifestyle modification are missing. The population-based randomized controlled trial VIPVIZA investigates the impact of pictorial information about subclinical atherosclerosis, added to traditional risk factor-based communication. The intervention includes a personalized, colour-coded and age-related risk communication strategy and a motivational conversation, and has been shown to reduce cardiovascular disease risk.

METHODS

In the present study we assessed cognitive and emotional reactions to the intervention, and how these reactions are associated to lifestyle modification. The participants' evaluation of the risk communication was assessed in the intervention group (n = 1749). Lifestyle modification was assessed with a lifestyle index based on physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol consumption at baseline and after 3 years. Associations between cognitive and emotional response and lifestyle modification were tested with analyses of covariance in a subset of participants (n = 714-857).

RESULTS

The intervention increased understanding of personal CVD risk, the possibility to influence the risk, and how to influence the risk. Severity of atherosclerosis was associated with emotional reactions, but emotions of strong negative valence were uncommon. Cognitive response and emotional arousal evoked by the intervention were positively associated with lifestyle modification, whereas negative emotions in isolation were not. High level of cognitive response in combination with high level of emotional arousal was found to be most beneficial for lifestyle modification.

CONCLUSIONS

The results demonstrate the potential of communicating asymptomatic atherosclerosis with a pictorial, colour-coded and age-related strategy, also including a motivational conversation. Furthermore, the results show the importance of CVD risk communication evoking engagement, and that an interaction between cognitive and emotional reactions might be central for sustained lifestyle modification. Our results also indicate that, in an asymptomatic population, atherosclerosis screening may strengthen disease prevention and health promotion.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01849575. Registration date 08/05/2013.

Does a multi-component intervention including pictorial risk communication about subclinical atherosclerosis improve perceptions of cardiovascular disease risk without deteriorating efficacy beliefs?

BACKGROUND

Pictorial communication about subclinical atherosclerosis can improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but whether it leads to long-term shifts in self-rated CVD risk (risk perception) and beliefs about possibility to influence personal risk (efficacy beliefs) is unknown.

PURPOSE

To study the impact of personalized color-coded and age-related risk communication about atherosclerosis and motivational conversation, compared to traditional risk factor-based communication, on risk perception and efficacy beliefs. Also, whether risk perception increases with message severity.

METHOD

The effect of the pragmatic RCT Visualization of Asymptomatic Atherosclerotic Disease for Optimum Cardiovascular Prevention (VIPVIZA) was analyzed using a linear mixed effects model with risk perception and efficacy believes at 1-year and 3-year follow up as dependent variables. Participants' (n = 3532) CVD risk perception and efficacy beliefs were assessed with visual analog scales (0-10). Fixed effects were group (intervention vs control), time point (1 year or 3 years) and interaction between group and time point. Further, the models were adjusted for corresponding baseline measurement of the dependent variable and a baseline × time point interaction. Effect of pictorial color-coded risk in the intervention group was investigated using a corresponding mixed effects model, but with pictorial risk group (message severity) as exposure instead of intervention group.

RESULTS

After one year, the intervention group rated their CVD risk as higher (m = 0.46, 95% CI 0.32-0.59), with an effect also after 3 years (m = 0.57, 95% CI 0.43-0.70). The effect was consistent in stratified analyses by sex and education. Overall, no effect on efficacy beliefs was observed. In the intervention group, differences in CVD risk perception were found between participants with different color-coded risk messages on atherosclerosis status.

CONCLUSION

Personalized, color-coded and age-related risk communication about atherosclerosis had an effect on risk perception with an effect also after 3 years, whereas overall, no effect on efficacy beliefs was observed.

Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension

It has been shown that Bayesian reasoning is affected by the believability of the data, but it is unknown which conditions could potentiate or reduce such belief effect. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the belief effect would mainly be observed in conditions fostering a gist comprehension of the data. Accordingly, we expected to observe a significant belief effect in iconic rather than in textual presentations and, in general, when nonnumerical estimates were requested. The results of three studies showed more accurate Bayesian estimates, either expressed numerically or nonnumerically, for icons than for text descriptions of natural frequencies. Moreover, in line with our expectations, nonnumerical estimates were, in general, more accurate for believable rather than for unbelievable scenarios. In contrast, the belief effect on the accuracy of the numerical estimates depended on the format and on the complexity of the calculation. The present findings also showed that single-event posterior probability estimates based on described frequencies were more accurate when expressed nonnumerically rather than numerically, opening new avenues for the development of interventions to improve Bayesian reasoning.

Probablement, Wahrscheinlich, Likely? A Cross-Language Study of How People Verbalize Probabilities in Icon Array Visualizations

Visualizations today are used across a wide range of languages and cultures. Yet the extent to which language impacts how we reason about data and visualizations remains unclear. In this paper, we explore the intersection of visualization and language through a cross-language study on estimative probability tasks with icon-array visualizations. Across Arabic, English, French, German, and Mandarin, n=50 participants per language both chose probability expressions - e.g. likely, probable - to describe icon-array visualizations (Vis-to-Expression), and drew icon-array visualizations to match a given expression (Expression-to-Vis). Results suggest that there is no clear one-to-one mapping of probability expressions and associated visual ranges between languages. Several translated expressions fell significantly above or below the range of the corresponding English expressions. Compared to other languages, French and German respondents appear to exhibit high levels of consistency between the visualizations they drew and the words they chose. Participants across languages used similar words when describing scenarios above 80% chance, with more variance in expressions targeting mid-range and lower values. We discuss how these results suggest potential differences in the expressiveness of language as it relates to visualization interpretation and design goals, as well as practical implications for translation efforts and future studies at the intersection of languages, culture, and visualization. Experiment data, source code, and analysis scripts are available at the following repository: https://osf.io/g5d4r/.

How do women who are informed that they are at increased risk of breast cancer appraise their risk? A systematic review of qualitative research

This review aimed to synthesise qualitative research on how women notified that they are at increased risk of breast cancer view their risk. Five electronic databases were systematically reviewed for qualitative research investigating how women who have received an increased breast cancer risk estimate appraise their risk status. Fourteen records reporting 12 studies were included and critically appraised. Data were thematically synthesised. Four analytical themes were generated. Women appraise their risk of breast cancer through comparison with their risk of other familial diseases. Clinically derived risk estimates were understood in relation to pre-conceived risk appraisals, with incongruences met with surprise. Family history is relied upon strongly, with women exploring similarities and differences in attributes between themselves and affected relatives to gauge the likelihood of diagnosis. Women at increased risk reported living under a cloud of inevitability or uncertainty regarding diagnosis, resulting in concerns about risk management. Women hold stable appraisals of their breast cancer risk which appear to be mainly formed through their experiences of breast cancer in the family. Healthcare professionals should explore women's personal risk appraisals prior to providing clinically derived risk estimates in order to address misconceptions, reduce concerns about inevitability and increase perceived control over risk reduction.

COVID-19 risk perception framework of the public: an infodemic tool for future pandemics and epidemics

Understanding the risk perceptions of the public is central for risk communications and infodemic management during emergency and preparedness planning as people's behavior depends on how they perceive the related risks. This qualitative study aimed to identify and describe factors related to COVID-19 risk perceptions of the public in Finland and to make this information readily available to those who communicate with the public during crises. The study is part of a larger project exploring crisis narratives through a mixed-methods approach. The study was based on a dataset of over 10,000 comments on the Facebook and Twitter posts of the Finnish Institute of Health and Welfare (THL) between March-May 2021. The data were analyzed qualitatively using thematic analysis. The study identified concepts linked with the pandemic risk perception that included knowledge, perceptions, personal experiences, trust, attitudes, and cultural values. The findings resulted in a framework of risk perceptions that can be used as taxonomy and a set of key concepts and keywords in social listening to monitor risk perception during future epidemics and pandemics.

Development of Self-Management Pictorial Health Information and Comparison of Korean Patients' With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Health Care Professionals' Perceptions

The current study aimed to evaluate pictorial health information (HI) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patient self-management. Each of 14 literal examples of COPD HI was transformed into three pictorials. The preliminary pictorial COPD HI was validated by 10 experts. In total, 60 patients with COPD and 50 health care professionals (HCPs) were selected to perceive the intended meanings in the pictorial HI. All 42 pictures scored ≥0.8 on the content validity index. Patients chose pictorial HI with descriptions of subjective expressions or those that reflected a patient's actual life, whereas HCPs selected HI that was described in simple, direct, and abstract expressions. Results indicate that HCPs are better suited to provide real life-friendly pictorial HI to patients with COPD. Therefore, it is expected that developing pictograms with patients with COPD could help convey intended meanings. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 48(10), 41-46.].

A process for creating data report-back tools to improve equity in environmental health

BACKGROUND

Although there is increasing interest in reporting results of environmental research efforts back to participants, evidence-based tools have not yet been applied to developed materials to ensure their accessibility in terms of literacy, numeracy, and data visualization demand. Additionally, there is not yet guidance as to how to formally assess the created materials to assure a match with the intended audience.

METHODS

Relying on formative qualitative research with participants of an indoor air quality study in Dorchester, Massachusetts, we identified means of enhancing accessibility of indoor air quality data report-back materials for participants. Participants (n = 20) engaged in semi-structured interviews in which they described challenges they encountered with scientific and medical materials and outlined written and verbal communication techniques that would help facilitate engagement with and accessibility of environmental health report-back materials. We coupled these insights from participants with best practice guidelines for written materials by operationalizing health literacy tools to produce accessible audience-informed data report-back materials.

RESULTS

The resulting data report-back materials had a 7th -grade reading level, and between a 4th -8th grade level of overall document complexity. The numeracy skills required to engage with the material were of the lowest demand, and we incorporated best practices for risk communication and facilitating understanding and actionability of the materials. Use of a rigorous assessment tool provides evidence of accessibility and appropriateness of the material for the audience.

CONCLUSIONS

We outline a process for developing and evaluating environmental health data reports that are tailored to inspire risk-reduction actions, and are demonstrably accessible in terms of their literacy, numeracy, and data visualization demand. Adapting health literacy tools to create and evaluate environmental data report-back materials is a novel and evidence-based means of ensuring their accessibility.

Effects of icon arrays to communicate risk in a repeated risky decision-making task

In two experiments, participants decided on each of several trials whether or not to take a risk. If they chose to take the risk, they had a relatively high probability (from 75% to 95%) of winning a small number of points and a relatively low probability (5% to 25%) of losing a large number of points. The loss amounts varied so that the expected value of taking the risk was positive on some trials, zero on others, and negative on the rest. The main independent variable was whether the probability of losing was communicated using numerical percentages or icon arrays. Both experiments included random icon arrays, in which the icons representing losses were randomly distributed throughout the array. Experiment 2 also included grouped icon arrays, in which the icons representing losses were grouped at the bottom of the array. Neither type of icon array led to better performance in the task. However, the random icon arrays led to less risk taking than the numerical percentages or the grouped icon arrays, especially at the higher loss probabilities. In a third experiment, participants made direct judgments of the percentages and probabilities represented by the icon arrays from Experiment 2. The results supported the idea that random arrays lead to less risk taking because they are perceived to represent greater loss probabilities. These results have several implications for the study of icon arrays and their use in risk communication.

Performance feedback on the quality of care in hospitals performing thrombectomy for ischemic stroke (PERFEQTOS): protocol of a stepped wedge cluster randomized trial

Background

Although the provision of performance feedback to healthcare professionals based on data from quality registries is common practice in many fields of medicine, observational studies of its effect on the quality of care have shown mixed results. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of performance feedback on the quality of care for acute ischemic stroke.

Methods

PERFEQTOS is a stepped wedge cluster randomized trial in 13 hospitals in the Netherlands providing endovascular thrombectomy for ischemic stroke. The primary outcome is the hospital’s door-to-groin time. The study starts with a 6-month period in which none of the hospitals receives the performance feedback intervention. Subsequently, every 6 months, three or four hospitals are randomized to cross over from the control to the intervention conditions, until all hospitals receive the feedback intervention. The feedback intervention consists of a dashboard with quarterly reports on patient characteristics, structure, process, and outcome indicators related to patients with ischemic stroke treated with endovascular thrombectomy. Hospitals can compare their present performance with their own performance in the past and with other hospitals. The performance feedback is provided to local quality improvement teams in each hospital, who define their own targets on specific indicators and develop performance improvement plans. The impact of the performance feedback and improvement plans will be evaluated by comparing the primary outcome before and after the intervention.

Discussion

This study will provide evidence on the effectiveness of performance feedback to healthcare providers. The results will be actively disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations, and various stakeholder engagement activities.

Trial registration

Netherlands Trial Register NL9090. Registered on December 3, 2020

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-021-05819-z.

Opportunities for theory-informed decision science in cancer control

Cancer prevention and control involves navigation of complex clinical decisions, often laden with uncertainty and/or intricate interpersonal dynamics, which have implications for both physical health and quality of life. Cancer decision-making research in recent decades has primarily focused on working to improve the quality of decisions by providing patients with detailed information about their choices and through an increased emphasis in medicine on the importance of shared decision making. This emphasis is reflective of a model of decision making that emphasizes knowledge, options, and deliberative synthesis of information as primary to decision making; yet, decades of research in psychology, decision science, and behavioral economics have taught us that our decisions are not influenced only by our objective knowledge of facts, but by our emotions, by the influence of others, and by biased cognitive processes. We present a conceptual framework for a future of research in decision science and cancer that is informed by decision science theories. Our framework incorporates greater recognition of the interpersonal dynamics of shared decision making, including the biases (including cognitive heuristics and race-based bias) that may affect multiple actors in the decision-making process, and emphasizes study of the interaction between deliberative and affective psychological processes as they relate to decision making. This work should be conducted with an eye toward informing efforts to improve decision making across the cancer care continuum, through interventions that are also informed by theory.

Decision Science Can Inform Clinical Trade-Offs Regarding Cardiotoxic Cancer Treatments

Cancer treatment-related cardiotoxicity (ie, heart failure, coronary artery disease, vascular diseases, arrhythmia) is a growing cancer survivorship concern within oncology practice; heart disease is the leading cause of noncancer death in cancer survivors and surpasses cancer as the leading cause of death for some cancers with higher survival rates. The issue of cardiotoxicity introduces a critical tradeoff that must be acknowledged and reconciled in clinical oncology practice: treating cancer aggressively and effectively in the present vs preventing future cardiotoxicity. Although many cancers must be treated as aggressively as possible, for others, multiple treatment options are available. Yet even when effective and less cardiotoxic treatments are available, they are not always chosen. Wariness to choose equally effective but less cardiotoxic treatment options may result in part from providers' and patients' reliance on "cognitive heuristics," or mental shortcuts that people (including, research shows, medical professionals) use to simplify complex judgments. These heuristics include delay discounting, availability and affect heuristics, and default bias. In the current commentary, we describe relevant research that illuminates how use of heuristics leads to biased medical decision making and translate how this research may apply when the tradeoff between aggressive cancer treatment and preventing future cardiotoxicity is considered. We discuss the implications of these biases in oncology practice, offer potential solutions to reduce bias, and call for future research in this area.

Return-to-Player Percentage in Gaming Machines: Impact of Informative Materials on Player Understanding

The addictive potential of electronic gaming machines (EGMs) is currently explained within a cognitive-behavioural framework. This framework explains that various erroneous cognitions regarding players' likelihood of winning contribute to persistent EGM gambling behaviour. Related to these cognitions is the pervasive misunderstanding among players regarding the operation of EGMs. However, little research has focussed specifically on player understanding of the theoretical proportion returned to players over the lifetime of a machine; return to player percentage. This study aimed to investigate the extent to which players understand the concept return to player percentage presented in different educative formats. A sample of 112 university students were randomly allocated to one of four conditions pertaining to a different mode of information delivery; infographic, vignette, brochure, or mandated legislation (control). Participants completed post-intervention measures to determine changes in knowledge. As predicted, participants exhibited a lack of understanding of the concept of return to player at baseline. However, contrary to predictions, exposure to any of the experimental conditions did not result in a greater understanding of return to player than controls. The study findings emphasise the difficulty individuals have in understanding complex concepts related to return to player percentages when presented in current formats and content. Treatment and responsible gambling policies need to adopt strategies to effectively improve knowledge of this aspect of the structural characteristics of gaming machines.

Danish Evaluation of Your Heart Forecast (DANY): study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial on an interactive risk-communication tool aimed at improving adherence of patients with high blood pressure

Background

To improve communication of risk messages, they must be communicated in a way that is understandable and relevant to the patient. Communicating risk of cardiovascular disease is a complex and individualised task, since the risk itself is a combination of multiple personal risk factors. Raised blood pressure is but one of these risk factors. In Denmark, only one-third of hypertensive patients are adequately treated, with regards to national clinical guidelines. One reason for this problem is low treatment adherence; tools with documented effects for increasing adherence of patients are limited.

Our objective is to evaluate the effect of a personalised, interactive and dynamic risk-assessment and risk-communication tool: ‘Your Heart Forecast’ (YHF) on blood pressure control, primary non-compliance, health literacy and patient empowerment.

Methods

Cluster-randomised controlled trial in general practice. Effect measures are adherence, blood pressure, lipid levels and empowerment at inclusion and after 6 and 12 months. To identify other benefits or possible adverse effects of the intervention, qualitative interviews will be conducted with a subgroup of patients.

Discussion

The investigators will explore effects of Your Heart Forecast on patients’ health literacy, adherence, empowerment and blood pressure control. The DANish evaluation of Your heart forecast (DANY) project will be the first to rigorously evaluate effects of YHF in Denmark and to link adherence of hypertensive patients exposed to YHF with the national databases of prescriptions and health services provided.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04058847. Registered on 16 August 2019.

The Effect of Financial Incentives on Patient Decisions to Undergo Low-value Head Computed Tomography Scans

BACKGROUND

Excessive diagnostic testing and defensive medicine contribute to billions of dollars in avoidable costs in the United States annually. Our objective was to determine the influence of financial incentives, accompanied with information regarding test risk and benefit, on patient preference for diagnostic testing.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of patients at the University of Michigan emergency department (ED). Each participant was presented with a hypothetical scenario involving an ED visit following minor traumatic brain injury. Participants were given information regarding potential benefit (detecting brain hemorrhage) and risk (developing cancer) of head computed tomography scan, as well as an incentive of $0 or $100 to forego testing. We used 0.1 and 1% for test benefit and risk, and values for risk, benefit, and financial incentive varied across participants. Our primary outcome was patient preference to undergo testing. We also collected demographic and numeracy information. We then used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs), which were adjusted for multiple potential confounders. Our sample size was designed to find at least 300 events (preference for testing) to allow for inclusion of up to 30 covariates in fully adjusted models. We had 85% to 90% power to detect a 10% absolute difference in testing rate across groups, assuming a 95% significance level.

RESULTS

We surveyed 913 patients. Increasing test benefit from 0.1% to 1% significantly increased test acceptance (adjusted OR [AOR] = 1.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2 to 2.1) and increasing test risk from 0.1% to 1% significantly decreased test acceptance (AOR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.52 to 0.93). Finally, a $100 incentive to forego low-value testing significantly reduced test acceptance (AOR = 0.6; 95% CI = 0.4 to 0.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Providing financial incentives to forego testing significantly decreased patient preference for testing, even when accounting for test benefit and risk. This work is preliminary and hypothetical and requires confirmation in larger patient cohorts facing these actual decisions.

Appraising risk in active surveillance of localized prostate cancer

Objectives

Men diagnosed with low‐risk prostate cancer are typically eligible for active surveillance of their cancer, involving monitoring for cancer progression and making judgements about the risks of prostate cancer against those of active intervention. Our study examined how risk for prostate cancer is perceived and experienced by patients undergoing active surveillance with their clinicians, how risk is communicated in clinical consultations, and the implications for treatment and care.

Method

Participants were nine patients and three clinicians from a university hospital urology clinic. A staged, qualitative, multi‐method data collection approach was undertaken, comprising: observations of consultations; patient and clinician interviews; and patient surveys. The three data sets were analysed separately using thematic analysis and then integrated to give a comprehensive view of patient and clinician views.

Results

Thirty data points (eight patient surveys; 10 observations of consultations between patients and clinicians; 10 patient interviews; and two clinician interviews) combined to create a detailed picture of how patients perceived and appraised risk, in three themes of “Making sense of risk”, “Talking about risk” and “Responding to risk”.

Conclusion

Effective risk communication needs to be finely tuned and timed to individual patient's priorities and information requirements. A structured information exchange process that identifies patients' priorities, and details key moments in risk assessment, so that complexities of risk are discussed in ways that are meaningful to patients, may benefit patient care. These findings could inform the development of patient‐centric risk assessment procedures and service delivery models in prostate cancer care more broadly.

Improving comprehension of genetic counseling for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer clients with a visual tool

Objective

Genetic counseling and testing can be offered to individuals who are at high risk of carrying a breast cancer (BRCA) gene mutation. However, the content of genetic counseling could be difficult to understand due to complex medical information. The aim of this study was to investigate if comprehension can be improved with a new genetic counseling tool (NGCT hereafter; a tool that combines complex medical information with pictures, diagrams and tables) as compared to conventional oral-only genetic counseling (CGC).

Methods

207 clients attended genetic counseling for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer at the Medical University of Vienna between February 2015 and February 2016. Seventy clients participated in this study and were allocated into two groups: the first 36 participants received conventional (oral only) genetic counseling (CGC) and the following 34 participants received genetic counseling using a new genetic counseling tool (NGCT), which combines complex information with pictures, diagrams and tables. After genetic counseling, all consenting participants were invited to complete a questionnaire with seven questions evaluating their comprehension of the medical information provided.

Results

Socio-demographic backgrounds were comparable in both groups. Correct responses were significantly higher in the NGCT group compared to the CGC group (p = 0.012). NGCT also statistically improves correct response of Q1 (p = 0.03) and Q7 (p = 0.004).

Conclusion

The NGCT leads to an overall better understanding of the content of a genetic counseling session than CGC alone.

Simplifying the use of prognostic information in traumatic brain injury. Part 2: Graphical presentation of probabilities

OBJECTIVE Clinical features such as those included in the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, pupil reactivity, and patient age, as well as CT findings, have clear established relationships with patient outcomes due to neurotrauma. Nevertheless, predictions made from combining these features in probabilistic models have not found a role in clinical practice. In this study, the authors aimed to develop a method of displaying probabilities graphically that would be simple and easy to use, thus improving the usefulness of prognostic information in neurotrauma. This work builds on a companion paper describing the GCS-Pupils score (GCS-P) as a tool for assessing the clinical severity of neurotrauma. METHODS Information about early GCS score, pupil response, patient age, CT findings, late outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale, and mortality were obtained at the individual adult patient level from the CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury; n = 9045) and IMPACT (International Mission for Prognosis and Clinical Trials in TBI; n = 6855) databases. These data were combined into a pooled data set for the main analysis. Logistic regression was first used to model the combined association between the GCS-P and patient age and outcome, following which CT findings were added to the models. The proportion of variability in outcomes "explained" by each model was assessed using Nagelkerke's R². RESULTS The authors observed that patient age and GCS-P have an additive effect on outcome. The probability of mortality 6 months after neurotrauma is greater with increasing age, and for all age groups the probability of death is greater with decreasing GCS-P. Conversely, the probability of favorable recovery becomes lower with increasing age and lessens with decreasing GCS-P. The effect of combining the GCS-P with patient age was substantially more informative than the GCS-P, age, GCS score, or pupil reactivity alone. Two-dimensional charts were produced displaying outcome probabilities, as percentages, for 5-year increments in age between 15 and 85 years, and for GCS-Ps ranging from 1 to 15; it is readily seen that the movement toward combinations at the top right of the charts reflects a decreasing likelihood of mortality and an increasing likelihood of favorable outcome. Analysis of CT findings showed that differences in outcome are very similar between patients with or without a hematoma, absent cisterns, or subarachnoid hemorrhage. Taken in combination, there is a gradation in risk that aligns with increasing numbers of any of these abnormalities. This information provides added value over age and GCS-P alone, supporting a simple extension of the earlier prognostic charts by stratifying the original charts in the following 3 CT groupings: none, only 1, and 2 or more CT abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS The important prognostic features in neurotrauma can be brought together to display graphically their combined effects on risks of death or on prospects for independent recovery. This approach can support decision making and improve communication of risk among health care professionals, patients, and their relatives. These charts will not replace clinical judgment, but they will reduce the risk of influences from biases.

The Informational Needs and Preferences of Patients Considering Surgery for Ulcerative Colitis: Results of a Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

Patients considering surgery for ulcerative colitis (UC) face a difficult decision as surgery may or may not improve quality of life. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines for UC emphasize the importance of providing quality preoperative information to patients but note no quality studies for the desired content of this information. Our aim was to explore patient information preferences prior to undergoing surgery for ulcerative colitis.

METHODS

Semistructured interviews with patients who underwent an operation and patients who considered but declined an operation were conducted. Interviews explored informational preferences, with emphasis on preoperative information given, preoperative information desired but not received, and retrospective informational desires. Interviews were transcribed and coded using an inductive thematic analysis using NVivo software. Data saturation was assessed after 12 interviews, with interviews continuing until saturation was achieved. Ethical approval was gained prior to interviews commencing (16/NW/0639).

RESULTS

A total of 16 interviews were conducted before data saturation was achieved (male n = 7, female n = 9). Eight patients declined surgery, and 8 opted for subtotal colectomy with permanent end ileostomy (n = 5) or ileoanal pouch (n = 3). A total of 4 themes and 14 subthemes were identified. Three dominant subthemes of informational shortcomings emerged: "long-term effects of surgery," "practicalities of daily living," and "long-term support." Peer support was desired by patients but was infrequently supported by health care professionals.

CONCLUSIONS

Current preoperative information does not address patient informational needs. Surgical consultations should be adapted to suit patient preferences. Clinical practice may need to be altered to ensure that patients are better supported following surgery.

Communicating risk in active surveillance of localised prostate cancer: a protocol for a qualitative study

INTRODUCTION

One in five men is likely to receive a diagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa) by the age of 85 years. Men diagnosed with low-risk PCa may be eligible for active surveillance (AS) to monitor their cancer to ensure that any changes are discovered and responded to in a timely way. Communication of risk in this context is more complicated than determining a numerical probability of risk, as patients wish to understand the implications of risk on their lives in concrete terms. Our study will examine how risk for PCa is perceived, experienced and communicated by patients using AS with their health professionals, and the implications for treatment and care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a proof of concept study, testing out a multimethod, qualitative approach to data collection in the context of PCa for the first time in Australia. It is being conducted from November 2016 to December 2017 in an Australian university hospital urology clinic. Participants are 10 men with a diagnosis of localised PCa, who are using an AS protocol, and 5 health professionals who work with this patient group (eg, urologists and Pca nurses). Data will be collected using observations of patient consultations with health professionals, patient questionnaires and interviews, and interviews with healthcare professionals. Analysis will be conducted in two stages. First, observational data from consultations will be analysed thematically to encapsulate various dimensions of risk classification and consultation dialogue. Second, interview data will be coded to derive meaning in text and analysed thematically. Overarching themes will represent patient and health professional perspectives of risk communication.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval for the study has been granted by Macquarie University Human Research Ethics Committee, approval 5201600638. Knowledge translation will be achieved through publications, reports and conference presentations to patients, families, clinicians and researchers.

Visualizing risks in cancer communication: A systematic review of computer-supported visual aids

OBJECTIVE

Health websites are becoming important sources for cancer information. Lay users, patients and carers seek support for critical decisions, but they are prone to common biases when quantitative information is presented. Graphical representations of risk data can facilitate comprehension, and interactive visualizations are popular. This review summarizes the evidence on computer-supported graphs that present risk data and their effects on various measures.

METHODS

The systematic literature search was conducted in several databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL. Only studies with a controlled design were included. Relevant publications were carefully selected and critically appraised by two reviewers.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies were included. Ten studies evaluated static graphs and three dynamic formats. Most decision scenarios were hypothetical. Static graphs could improve accuracy, comprehension, and behavioural intention. But the results were heterogeneous and inconsistent among the studies. Dynamic formats were not superior or even impaired performance compared to static formats.

CONCLUSIONS

Static graphs show promising but inconsistent results, while research on dynamic visualizations is scarce and must be interpreted cautiously due to methodical limitations.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Well-designed and context-specific static graphs can support web-based cancer risk communication in particular populations. The application of dynamic formats cannot be recommended and needs further research.

Usability Testing the "Personal Patient Profile-Prostate" in a Sample of African American and Hispanic Men

Shared treatment decision making in a cancer setting requires a patient's understanding of the potential benefits and risks of each treatment option. Graphical display of risk information is one approach to improving understanding. Little is known about how patients engage with infographics in the context of health education materials and whether interactions vary with health literacy levels. We conducted an observational study, using an eye tracker device, of how men with newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer visually engaged with an on-screen infographic depicting risk information in the Personal Patient Profile-Prostate. Health literacy was measured with the Short Assessment of Health Literacy-English. Gaze patterns on an exemplar screens containing infographics about survival were analyzed and explored with respect to sociodemographic and health literacy data. Acceptability of Personal Patient Profile-Prostate was measured with the Acceptability E-scale. Twenty-six English-speaking men participated, and eye tracking data were collected for 12 men on the exemplar page of risk information that we analyzed. We found preliminary evidence of visual scanning and of participants with lower literacy focusing sooner on infographics versus text. Acceptability for Personal Patient Profile-Prostate was high. These findings suggest that infographics may be of higher relative value to participants with low health literacy. Eye trackers may provide valuable information on how people visually engage with infographics and may inform development of health education materials, although care must be taken to minimize data loss.

Active engagement in a web-based tutorial to prevent obesity grounded in Fuzzy-Trace Theory predicts higher knowledge and gist comprehension

We used Sharable Knowledge Objects (SKOs) to create an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) grounded in Fuzzy-Trace Theory to teach women about obesity prevention: GistFit, getting the gist of healthy eating and exercise. The theory predicts that reliance on gist mental representations (as opposed to verbatim) is more effective in reducing health risks and improving decision making. Technical information was translated into decision-relevant gist representations and gist principles (i.e., healthy values). The SKO was hypothesized to facilitate extracting these gist representations and principles by engaging women in dialogue, "understanding" their responses, and replying appropriately to prompt additional engagement. Participants were randomly assigned to either the obesity prevention tutorial (GistFit) or a control tutorial containing different content using the same technology. Participants were administered assessments of knowledge about nutrition and exercise, gist comprehension, gist principles, behavioral intentions and self-reported behavior. An analysis of engagement in tutorial dialogues and responses to multiple-choice questions to check understanding throughout the tutorial revealed significant correlations between these conversations and scores on subsequent knowledge tests and gist comprehension. Knowledge and comprehension measures correlated with healthier behavior and greater intentions to perform healthy behavior. Differences between GistFit and control tutorials were greater for participants who engaged more fully. Thus, results are consistent with the hypothesis that active engagement with a new gist-based ITS, rather than a passive memorization of verbatim details, was associated with an array of known psychosocial mediators of preventive health decisions, such as knowledge acquisition, and gist comprehension.

Understanding Genetic Breast Cancer Risk: Processing Loci of the BRCA Gist Intelligent Tutoring System

The BRCA Gist Intelligent Tutoring System helps women understand and make decisions about genetic testing for breast cancer risk. BRCA Gist is guided by Fuzzy-Trace Theory, (FTT) and built using AutoTutor Lite. It responds differently to participants depending on what they say. Seven tutorial dialogues requiring explanation and argumentation are guided by three FTT concepts: forming gist explanations in one's own words, emphasizing decision-relevant information, and deliberating the consequences of decision alternatives. Participants were randomly assigned to BRCA Gist, a control, or impoverished BRCA Gist conditions removing gist explanation dialogues, argumentation dialogues, or FTT images. All BRCA Gist conditions performed significantly better than controls on knowledge, comprehension, and risk assessment. Significant differences in knowledge, comprehension, and fine-grained dialogue analyses demonstrate the efficacy of gist explanation dialogues. FTT images significantly increased knowledge. Providing more elements in arguments against testing correlated with increased knowledge and comprehension.

Shared Medical Decision Making in Lung Cancer Screening: Experienced versus Descriptive Risk Formats

BACKGROUND

Annual lung cancer screening using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) scans is associated with a survival benefit, but it is also associated with potential harm. Unlike descriptive probability formats, experienced tasks have been shown to decrease perceptions of rare events. The objective of this study was to compare descriptive versus experienced probability formats on patients' knowledge, beliefs, endorsement of screening for heavy smokers, and preference (choice predisposition) to undergo screening.

METHODS

A total of 276 patients attending an outpatient pulmonary practice were randomized to learn about screening using 1 of 3 formats: numbers only, numbers + icon arrays, numbers + a set of slides illustrating LDCT scans of 250 people in random order that displayed the number of normal scans, false-positive lung nodules, cancers found leading to a life saved, and cancers found leading to death despite treatment.

RESULTS

Knowledge differed between the 3 formats (P= 0.001), with participants randomized to the numbers + icon array format having the highest knowledge score. Beliefs were more favorable among participants randomized to the numbers + experienced format compared with the numbers + icon array format (difference between means [95% confidence interval]= 1.6 [0.4-2.8]). Differences in participants' endorsement of screening (P= 0.4) and choice predisposition (P= 0.6) across probability format mirrored those of beliefs but were not statistically significant.

DISCUSSION

Contrary to what we expected, the experienced format increased propensity toward screening compared with the numbers + icon array format, as indicated by more favorable beliefs and nonsignificant trends toward stronger choice predisposition and endorsement. Experienced risk formats may not be a practical approach to improve risk communication for patients deciding whether or not to undergo annual lung cancer screening.

Awareness of Dietary and Alcohol Guidelines Among Colorectal Cancer Survivors

INTRODUCTION

Although dietary habits can affect colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors' health, it is unclear how familiar survivors are with dietary guidelines, what they believe about healthy eating and alcohol consumption, and what hinders healthy dietary habits after cancer. This study assessed CRC survivors' familiarity with dietary guidelines, their eating and drinking habits, and perceived facilitators and barriers to healthy eating after cancer, including social support and self-efficacy for maintaining a healthy diet and limiting alcohol.

METHODS

A total of 593 individuals (50% female; mean age, 74 years) diagnosed with CRC approximately 6 years prior to study entry in early 2010 were identified through California Cancer Registry records and participated in a cross-sectional mailed survey assessing health behavior after cancer (46% adjusted response rate). Analyses were conducted in 2014-2015.

RESULTS

Survivors were most familiar with-and most likely to follow-recommendations to choose low-fat foods; 15% had never heard of recommendations to limit alcohol. Survivors were more aware of recommendations involving messages to limit/avoid versus approach/choose certain foods. The most common barrier to a healthy diet involved the effort required (26%). Survivors received more family/friend support and provider recommendations for healthy eating than limiting alcohol.

CONCLUSIONS

Results provide an overview of awareness of and adherence to dietary recommendations among CRC survivors, highlighting the need for increasing awareness of recommendations that are especially relevant for survivors. Suggestions are made for modifying diet-related messages to facilitate comprehension and recall among CRC survivors, and increasing awareness among groups with the lowest awareness levels.

Literature review of visual representation of the results of benefit-risk assessments of medicinal products

BACKGROUND

The PROTECT Benefit-Risk group is dedicated to research in methods for continuous benefit-risk monitoring of medicines, including the presentation of the results, with a particular emphasis on graphical methods.

METHODS

A comprehensive review was performed to identify visuals used for medical risk and benefit-risk communication. The identified visual displays were grouped into visual types, and each visual type was appraised based on five criteria: intended audience, intended message, knowledge required to understand the visual, unintentional messages that may be derived from the visual and missing information that may be needed to understand the visual.

RESULTS

Sixty-six examples of visual formats were identified from the literature and classified into 14 visual types. We found that there is not one single visual format that is consistently superior to others for the communication of benefit-risk information. In addition, we found that most of the drawbacks found in the visual formats could be considered general to visual communication, although some appear more relevant to specific formats and should be considered when creating visuals for different audiences depending on the exact message to be communicated.

CONCLUSION

We have arrived at recommendations for the use of visual displays for benefit-risk communication. The recommendation refers to the creation of visuals. We outline four criteria to determine audience-visual compatibility and consider these to be a key task in creating any visual. Next we propose specific visual formats of interest, to be explored further for their ability to address nine different types of benefit-risk analysis information.

Does Introducing Imprecision around Probabilities for Benefit and Harm Influence the Way People Value Treatments?

Background. Imprecision in estimates of benefits and harms around treatment choices is rarely described to patients. Variation in sampling error between treatment alternatives (e.g., treatments have similar average risks, but one treatment has a larger confidence interval) can result in patients failing to choose the option that is best for them. The aim of this study is to use a discrete choice experiment to describe how 2 methods for conveying imprecision in risk influence people’s treatment decisions. Methods. We randomized a representative sample of the Canadian general population to 1 of 3 surveys that sought choices between hypothetical treatments for rheumatoid arthritis based on different levels of 7 attributes: route and frequency of administration, chance of benefit, serious and minor side effects and life expectancy, and imprecision in benefit and side-effect estimates. The surveys differed in the way imprecision was described: 1) no imprecision, 2) quantitative description based on a range with a visual graphic, and 3) qualitative description simply describing the confidence in the evidence. Results. The analyzed data were from 2663 respondents. Results suggested that more people understood imprecision when it was described qualitatively (88%) versus quantitatively (68%). Respondents who appeared to understand imprecision descriptions placed high value on increased precision regarding the actual benefits and harms of treatment, equivalent to the value placed on the information about the probability of serious side effects. Both qualitative and quantitative methods led to small but significant increases in decision uncertainty for choosing any treatment. Limitations included some issues in defining understanding of imprecision and the use of an internet survey of panel members. Conclusions. These findings provide insight into how conveying imprecision information influences patient treatment choices.

The Role of Human Factors/Ergonomics in the Science of Security: Decision Making and Action Selection in Cyberspace

OBJECTIVE

The overarching goal is to convey the concept of science of security and the contributions that a scientifically based, human factors approach can make to this interdisciplinary field.

BACKGROUND

Rather than a piecemeal approach to solving cybersecurity problems as they arise, the U.S. government is mounting a systematic effort to develop an approach grounded in science. Because humans play a central role in security measures, research on security-related decisions and actions grounded in principles of human information-processing and decision-making is crucial to this interdisciplinary effort.

METHOD

We describe the science of security and the role that human factors can play in it, and use two examples of research in cybersecurity--detection of phishing attacks and selection of mobile applications--to illustrate the contribution of a scientific, human factors approach.

RESULTS

In these research areas, we show that systematic information-processing analyses of the decisions that users make and the actions they take provide a basis for integrating the human component of security science.

CONCLUSION

Human factors specialists should utilize their foundation in the science of applied information processing and decision making to contribute to the science of cybersecurity.

Self-Reported Health Status Predicts Other-Cause Mortality in Men with Localized Prostate Cancer: Results from the Prostate Cancer Outcomes Study

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend against treating localized prostate cancer (PCa) in men with a greater than 10-year life expectancy. However, physicians have difficulty accurately estimating life expectancy.

OBJECTIVE

We used data from a population-based observational study to develop a nomogram to estimate long-term other-cause mortality based on self-reported health status (SRHS), race/ethnicity, and age at diagnosis.

DESIGN

This was an observational study.

SUBJECTS

Men diagnosed with localized PCa from October 1994 through October 1995 participated in the study.

MAIN MEASURES

Initial measures obtained 6 months after diagnosis included sociodemographic and tumor characteristics, treatment, and a single item on the SRHS, with response options ranging from excellent to poor. We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results program data to determine date and cause of death through December 2010. We estimated other-cause mortality with proportional hazards survival analyses, accounting for competing risks.

KEY RESULTS

We evaluated 2,695 men, of whom 74% underwent aggressive therapy (surgery or radiotherapy). At the initial survey, 18% reported excellent (E), 36% very good (VG), 31% good (G), and 15% fair/poor (F/P) health. Healthier men were younger, and more likely to be white, better educated, and to undergo surgery. At follow-up, 44% of the cohort had died; 78% of deaths were from causes other than PCa. SRHS predicted other-cause mortality; for men reporting E, VG, G, F/P health, the cumulative incidences of other-cause mortality were 20%, 29%, 40%, and 53%, respectively, p < 0.001. Compared to a reference of excellent SRHS, multivariable hazard ratios (95% CI) for other-cause mortality for men reporting VG, G, and F/P health were 1.22 (0.97-1.54), 1.73 (1.38-2.17), and 2.71 (2.11-3.48), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Responses to a one-item SRHS measure were strongly associated with other-cause mortality 15 years after PCa diagnosis. Men reporting fair/poor health had substantial risks for other-cause mortality, suggesting limited benefit for undergoing aggressive treatment. SRHS can be considered in supporting informed decision-making about PCa treatment.

Communicating the risk of violent and offending behavior: review and introduction to this special issue

How to communicate risk of recidivism in correctional and forensic contexts has been a subject of scholarly discussion for two decades. This emerging literature, however, is sparse compared with studies on the assessment of risk for violent and offending behavior. In this special issue of Behavioral Sciences and the Law, we have gathered together empirical and review papers exemplifying promising directions and methodologies. We begin with a review of the state of the field, and lessons that can be drawn from research into medical risk assessment and risk communication, finding that many of the same principles apply to the forensic context. How risks are framed, and how numerate assessors are, affects how risk information is understood and applied. We discuss the existing research bearing on these issues, as well as the conceptual, practical, empirical, and legal implications of communicating risk using numerical or categorical risk terms. Along with the seven articles in this volume, we suggest directions for future research on measuring and communicating change, understanding and managing the statistical literacy of those who use and communicate risk assessments, and developing a theoretical framework for forensic risk communication research. We hope this volume will help integrate and invigorate research into forensic risk communication.

An Overview of Judgment and Decision Making Research Through the Lens of Fuzzy Trace Theory

We present the basic tenets of fuzzy trace theory, a comprehensive theory of memory, judgment, and decision making that is grounded in research on how information is stored as knowledge, mentally represented, retrieved from storage, and processed. In doing so, we highlight how it is distinguished from traditional models of decision making in that gist reasoning plays a central role. The theory also distinguishes advanced intuition from primitive impulsivity. It predicts that different sorts of errors occur with respect to each component of judgment and decision making: background knowledge, representation, retrieval, and processing. Classic errors in the judgment and decision making literature, such as risky-choice framing and the conjunction fallacy, are accounted for by fuzzy trace theory and new results generated by the theory contradict traditional approaches. We also describe how developmental changes in brain and behavior offer crucial insight into adult cognitive processing. Research investigating brain and behavior in developing and special populations supports fuzzy trace theory's predictions about reliance on gist processing.