The Role of Galectin-3 Levels for Predicting Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

Background/Objectives: Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) is an important cause that is thought main potential factor in Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Extended Holter ECG is an expensive and time-consuming examination. It needs another tools for predicting PAF in ESUS patients. In this study, serum galectin-3 levels, ECG parameters (PR interval, P wave time and P wave peak time) LA volume index, LA global peak strain and atrial electromechanical conduction time values were investigated for predicting PAF. Methods: 150 patients with ESUS and 30 volunteers for the control group were recruited to study. 48-72 h Holter ECG monitoring was used for detecting PAF. Patients were divided into two groups (ESUS + PAF and ESUS-PAF) according to the development of PAF in Holter ECG monitoring. Results: 30 patients with ESUS whose Holter ECG monitoring showed PAF, were recruited to the ESUS + PAF group. Other 120 patients with ESUS were recruited to the ESUS-PAF group. PA lateral, PA septum, and PA tricuspid were higher in the ESUS + PAF group (p < 0.001 for all). Serum galectin-3 levels were significantly higher in ESUS + PAF than in ESUS-PAF and control groups (479.0 pg/mL ± 435.8 pg/mL, 297.8 pg/mL ± 280.3 pg/mL, and 125.4 ± 87.0 pg/mL, p < 0.001, respectively). Serum galectin-3 levels were significantly correlated with LAVI, PA lateral, and global peak LA strain (r = 0.246, p = 0.001, p = 0.158, p = 0.035, r = -0.176, p = 0.018, respectively). Conclusion: Serum galectin-3 levels is found higher in ESUS patients which developed PAF and Serum galectin-3 levels are associated LA adverse remodeling in patients with ESUS.

Cardiac Blood-Based Biomarkers of Myocardial Stress as Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation Development in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source/Cryptogenic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Undiagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for stroke that can go unnoticed in individuals with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) or cryptogenic stroke (CS). Early detection is critical for stroke prognosis and secondary prevention. This study aimed to determine if blood biomarkers of myocardial stress can accurately predict AF in patients with ESUS/CS, which would allow the identification of those who would benefit from closer monitoring.

METHODS

In February 2023 we performed a systematic date-unrestricted search of three databases for studies on patients with ESUS/CS who were subsequently diagnosed with AF. We examined the relationships between AF and serum myocardial stress markers such as brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), N-terminal-pro-BNP (NT-proBNP), midregional proatrial natriuretic peptide, and troponin.

RESULTS

Among the 1,527 studies reviewed, 23 eligible studies involving 6,212 participants, including 864 with AF, were analyzed. A meta-analysis of 9 studies indicated that they demonstrated a clear association between higher NT-proBNP levels and an increased risk of AF, with adjusted and raw data indicating 3.06- and 9.03-fold higher AF risks, respectively. Lower NT-proBNP levels had a pooled negative predictive value of 91.7%, indicating the potential to rule out AF with an 8% false-negative rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Further research is required to fully determine the potential of biomarkers for AF detection after stroke, as results from previous studies lack homogeneity. However, lower NT-proBNP levels have potential in ruling out AF in patients with ESUS/CS. Combining them with other relevant biomarkers may enhance the precision of identifying patients who will not benefit from extended monitoring, which would optimize resource allocation and patient care.

Performance of Different Risk Scores for the Detection of Atrial Fibrillation Among Patients With Cryptogenic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a frequent underlying cause of cryptogenic stroke (CS) and its detection can be increased using implantable cardiac monitoring (ICM). We sought to evaluate different risk scores and assess their diagnostic ability in identifying patients with CS with underlying AF on ICM.

METHODS

Patients with CS, being admitted to a single tertiary stroke center between 2017 and 2022 and receiving ICM, were prospectively evaluated. The CHA2DS2-VASc, HAVOC, Brown ESUS-AF, and C2HEST scores were calculated at baseline. The primary outcome of interest was the detection of AF, which was defined as at least 1 AF episode on ICM lasting for 2 consecutive minutes or more. The diagnostic accuracy measures and the net reclassification improvement were calculated for the 4 risk scores. Stroke recurrence was evaluated as a secondary outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 250 patients with CS were included, and AF was detected by ICM in 20.4% (n=51) during a median monitoring period of 16 months. Patients with CS with AF detection were older compared with the rest (P=0.045). The median HAVOC, Brown ESUS-AF, and C2HEST scores were higher among the patients with AF compared with the patients without AF (all P<0.05), while the median CHA2DS2-VASc score was similar between the 2 groups. The corresponding C statistics for CHA2DS2-VASc, HAVOC, Brown ESUS-AF, and C2HEST for AF prediction were 0.576 (95% CI, 0.482-0.670), 0.612 (95% CI, 0.523-0.700), 0.666 (95% CI, 0.587-0.746), and 0.770 (95% CI, 0.699-0.839). The C2HEST score presented the highest diagnostic performance based on C statistics (P<0.05 after correction for multiple comparisons) and provided significant improvement in net reclassification for AF detection (>70%) compared with the other risk scores. Finally, stroke recurrence was documented in 5.6% of the study population, with no difference regarding the 4 risk scores between patients with and without recurrent stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

The C2HEST score was superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc, HAVOC, and Brown ESUS-AF scores for discriminating patients with CS with underlying AF using ICM.

Detection of atrial fibrillation using an implantable loop recorder in patients with previous cryptogenic stroke: the SPIDER-AF registry (Stroke Prevention by Increasing DEtection Rates of Atrial Fibrillation)

BACKGROUND

The use of implantable loop recorder (ILR) to detect atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with a history of cryptogenic stroke (CS) has seldom been investigated in "real-world" settings.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to present the results of the Stroke Prevention by Increasing DEtection Rates of Atrial Fibrillation (SPIDER-AF) registry.

METHOD

SPIDER is a multicentric, observational registry, including 35 facilities all over Germany. It enrolled outpatients without AF history and with CS before ILR implantation.

RESULTS

We included 500 patients (mean age 63.1 ± 12.7 years), 304 (60.8%) were males, with previous stroke (72.6%) and TIA (27.4%). After inclusion, all were followed for at least 12 months. AF was detected in 133 (26.8%), 25.3% of patients with previous stroke and 29.9% with TIA (p = 0.30). AF was detected after a median of 121.5 days (IQR 40.5-223.0). AF was primarily paroxysmal (95.7% after stroke, 100% after TIA). In 19.5% (n = 26) anticoagulation was not administered after AF detection. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc score (OR 1.22; CI 1.01-1.49; p = 0.037) and age > 70 years (OR 0.41; CI 0.19-0.88; p = 0.0020) correlated with AF. Repeat cerebrovascular events at follow-up (28; 5.6%) correlated with AF (OR = 2.17; CI 1.00-4.72; p = 0.049). AF (p = 0.91) and recurrent events (p = 0.43) occurred similarly in females and males.

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of cryptogenic strokes ILRs are a valuable tool for early detection of AF. In a real-world scenario, the anticoagulation therapy remains inadequate despite diagnosed AF in a relevant subset of patients requiring optimization of patient management.

Predicting risk of AF in ischaemic stroke using sinus rhythm ECG abnormalities: A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To identify ECG changes in sinus rhythm that may be used to predict subsequent development of new AF.

METHOD

We identified prospective and retrospective cohort or case control studies evaluating ECG patterns from a 12-lead ECG in sinus rhythm taken in hospital or community predicting subsequent development of new AF. For each identified ECG predictor, we then identify absolute event rates and pooled risk ratios (RR) using an aggregate level random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 609,496 patients from 22 studies. ECG patterns included P wave terminal force V1 (PTFV1), interatrial block (IAB) and advanced interatrial block (aIAB), abnormal P wave axis (aPWA), PR prolongation and atrial premature complexes (APCs). Pooled risk ratios reached significance for each of these; PTFV1 RR 1.48 (95% CI 1.04-2.10), IAB 2.54 (95% CI 1.64-3.93), aIAB 4.05 (95% CI 2.64-6.22), aPWA 1.89 (95% CI 1.25-2.85), PR prolongation 2.22 (95% CI 1.27-3.87) and APCs 3.71 (95% CI 2.23-6.16). Diabetes reduced the predictive value of PR prolongation.

CONCLUSION

APC and aIAB were most predictive of AF, while IAB, PR prolongation, PTFV1 and aPWA were also significantly associated with development of AF. These support their use in a screening tool to identify at risk cohorts who may benefit from further investigation, or following stroke, with empirical anticoagulation.

Insertable cardiac monitoring devices versus external cardiac monitoring for detecting atrial fibrillation and preventing the recurrence of stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for stroke, which is the second leading cause of death worldwide. It remains uncertain whether insertable cardiac monitors (ICMs) enhance the ability to recognize AF over external cardiac monitoring in patients who have experienced a stroke.

AIM

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine whether ICM devices are more effective than external cardiac monitoring for the detection of AF in stroke patients.

METHODS

We included studies that reported an AF detection rate in stroke patients with a follow-up of at least 12 months. We analyzed the data of 1233 patients from 3 randomized control trials (RCTs).

RESULTS

When compared to external cardiac monitoring, ICM devices (Medtronic Reveal LINQ and Reveal XT) showed a significantly higher detection rate of AF (RR = 5.04, 95% CI = 2.93-8.68; p < 0.05; ARR = 10.47%, NNT = 10). The ICM arm had significantly higher usage of oral anticoagulants (OAC) as compared to the control arm. (RR = 2.76, 95% CI = 1.89-4.02, p < 0.05). Additionally, ICM usage was associated with a higher incidence of mild to moderate adverse events (RR = 10.52, 95% CI =1.35-82.14; p = 0.02) and a higher number of severe adverse events as compared to the control arm (RR = 7.61, 95% CI = 1.36-42.51; p = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

ICM devices are associated with better detection rates of AF and higher usage of OAC as compared to external cardiac monitoring in post-stroke patients. However, ICM insertion is associated with a higher incidence of mild/moderate and severe adverse effects.

Immediate implantable loop recorder implantation for detecting atrial fibrillation in cryptogenic stroke

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is suspected as the main cause of stroke in the majority of patients presenting with cryptogenic stroke (CS). Implantable loop recorders (ILR's) are indicated for detecting AF in these patients. The short term (<1 month) and long-term AF detection rates in patients inserted with an ILR immediately after CS is reported. Secondly, we compare the safety of nurse led vs physician led ILR implantation in these patients.

METHODS

This is a retrospective review of all patients who underwent inpatient ILR implantation (Medtronic Linq) between May 2020 and May 2022 at East Sussex Healthcare NHS trust. All patients were remotely monitored via the FOCUSON^TM monitoring and triage service.

RESULTS

A total of 186 subjects were included in the study and were followed up for a mean period of 363.0 +/- 222.6 days. The mean time between stroke and ILR was 7.0 +/- 5.5 days. The mean time between referral and ILR was 1.0 +/- 2.0 days. AF was detected in 25 (13.4%) patients. During the first 30 days of monitoring, AF was detected in 9 (4.8%) patients. The number of ILR implants performed by the specialist nurse was 107 (57.5%). There was no significant difference in the major complication rate (requiring device removal) between nurse and physician led implant (1 (0.95%) vs 0 (0%), p value = 0.389).

CONCLUSION

Inpatient ILR for cryptogenic stroke is feasible. The rate of AF detection in the first month post CS is 4.8% however, more AF was detected up to one year post implant, suggesting rationale for proceeding directly to ILR implant in these patients before discharge to not delay treatment. A nurse led service is also viable with no significant difference in the major complication rate compared to physician led implants.

Cost-effectiveness of an insertable cardiac monitor in a high-risk population in the US

BACKGROUND

Insertable cardiac monitors (ICMs) are a clinically effective means of detecting atrial fibrillation (AF) in high-risk patients, and guiding the initiation of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs). Their cost-effectiveness from a US clinical payer perspective is not yet known. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ICMs compared to standard of care (SoC) for detecting AF in patients at high risk of stroke (CHADS₂ ≥ 2), in the US.

METHODS

Using patient data from the REVEAL AF trial (n = 393, average CHADS₂ score = 2.9), a Markov model estimated the lifetime costs and benefits of detecting AF with an ICM or with SoC (specifically intermittent use of electrocardiograms and 24-h Holter monitors). Ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, intra- and extra-cranial hemorrhages, and minor bleeds were modelled. Diagnostic and device costs, costs of treating stroke and bleeding events and medical therapy-specifically costs of NOACs were included. Costs and health outcomes, measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), were discounted at 3% per annum, in line with standard practice in the US setting. One-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were undertaken.

RESULTS

Lifetime per-patient cost for ICM was $31,116 versus $25,330 for SoC. ICMs generated a total of 7.75 QALYs versus 7.59 for SoC, with 34 fewer strokes projected per 1000 patients. The model estimates a number needed to treat of 29 per stroke avoided. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $35,528 per QALY gained. ICMs were cost-effective in 75% of PSA simulations, using a $50,000 per QALY threshold, and a 100% probability of being cost-effective at a WTP threshold of $150,000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of ICMs to identify AF in a high-risk population is likely to be cost-effective in the US healthcare setting.

Prioritization and Resource Allocation in Academic Global Health Partnerships

OBJECTIVE

US-based academic institutions involved in global health (GH) partnerships can have a positive impact on health care systems in low/middle-income countries but lack a consistent approach. Existing priority setting and resource allocation (PSRA) frameworks do not adequately capture the interpersonal and sociopolitical complexity of decision-making in GH work. The authors explored how US-based GH practitioners prioritize and allocate resources for different types of support in academic GH partnerships.

METHOD

In 2020 to 2021, the authors invited 36 US-based GH practitioners from the 2015 Pediatric GH Leadership Conference to participate in individual 1-hour semi-structured interviews. Using an iterative and inductive grounded theory approach, the study team analyzed interview transcripts through the lens of Heyse's framework on decision-making in humanitarian aid.

RESULTS

The authors interviewed 20 GH practitioners and reached thematic sufficiency. A descriptive conceptual framework, capturing 18 distinct themes in 4 major categories, emerged from the data. In this framework, categories included: 1) stakeholders: those who influence and are influenced by the partnership; 2) goals: vision, mission, aims, and scope of the partnership; 3) implementation strategy: approach to accomplishing goals, categorized as relationship-oriented, task-oriented, context-oriented, or nonprescriptive; and 4) approach to conflict: response when goals and strategies do not align among stakeholders.

CONCLUSION

Themes revealed a dynamic process for PSRA. Using our study findings, and building on existing literature, our framework highlights the complex interpersonal relationships, resource limitations, and sociopolitical and economic constraints that affect PSRA in GH partnerships. Finally, themes point to the field's evolution toward a more decolonized approach to GH.

European Stroke Organisation (ESO) guideline on screening for subclinical atrial fibrillation after stroke or transient ischaemic attack of undetermined origin

We aimed to provide practical recommendations for the screening of subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) of undetermined origin. These guidelines are based on the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Five relevant Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome questions were defined by a multidisciplinary module working group (MWG).

Longer duration of cardiac rhythm monitoring increases the detection of subclinical AF, but the optimal monitoring length is yet to be defined. We advise longer monitoring to increase the rate of anticoagulation, but whether longer monitoring improves clinical outcomes needs to be addressed. AF detection does not differ from in- or out-patient ECG-monitoring with similar monitoring duration, so we consider it reasonable to initiate in-hospital monitoring as soon as possible and continue with outpatient monitoring for more than 48h. Although insertable loop recorders (ILR) increase AF detection based on their longer monitoring duration, comparison with non-implantable ECG devices for similar monitoring time is lacking. We suggest the use of implantable devices, if feasible, for AF detection instead of non- implantable devices to increase the detection of subclinical AF. There is weak evidence of a useful role for blood, ECG, and brain imaging biomarkers for the identification of patients at high risk of AF. In patients with patent foramen ovale, we found insufficient evidence from RCT, but prolonged cardiac monitoring in patients >55 years is advisable for subclinical AF detection. To conclude, in adult patients with ischaemic stroke or TIA of undetermined origin, we recommend longer duration of cardiac rhythm monitoring of more than 48h and if feasible with IRL to increase the detection of subclinical AF.

Cost-Effectiveness of Monitoring Patients Post-Stroke With Mobile ECG During the Hospital Stay

Background

The effectiveness of a nurse‐led in‐hospital monitoring protocol with mobile ECG (iECG) was investigated for detecting atrial fibrillation in patients post‐ischemic stroke or post‐transient ischemic attack. The study aimed to assess the cost‐effectiveness of using iECG during the initial hospital stay compared with standard 24‐hour Holter monitoring.

Methods and Results

A Markov microsimulation model was constructed to simulate the lifetime health outcomes and costs. The rate of atrial fibrillation detection in iECG and Holter monitoring during the in‐hospital phase and characteristics of modeled population (ie, age, sex, CHA2DS2‐VASc) were informed by patient‐level data. Costs related to recurrent stroke, stroke management, medications (new oral anticoagulants), and rehabilitation were included. The cost‐effectiveness analysis outcome was calculated as an incremental cost per quality‐adjusted life‐year gained. As results, monitoring patients with iECG post‐stroke during the index hospitalization was associated with marginally higher costs (A$31 196) and greater benefits (6.70 quality‐adjusted life‐years) compared with 24‐hour Holter surveillance (A$31 095 and 6.66 quality‐adjusted life‐years) over a 20‐year time horizon, with an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of $3013/ quality‐adjusted life‐years. Monitoring patients with iECG also contributed to lower recurrence of stroke and stroke‐related deaths (140 recurrent strokes and 20 deaths avoided per 10 000 patients). The probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested iECG is highly likely to be a cost‐effective intervention (100% probability).

Conclusions

A nurse‐led iECG monitoring protocol during the acute hospital stay was found to improve the rate of atrial fibrillation detection and contributed to slightly increased costs and improved health outcomes. Using iECG to monitor patients post‐stroke during initial hospitalization is recommended to complement routine care.

Mobile Cardiac Outpatient Telemetry Patch vs Implantable Loop Recorder in Cryptogenic Stroke Patients in the US - Cost-Minimization Model

Purpose

The aim of this study was to compare costs and outcomes of mobile cardiac outpatient telemetry (MCOT) patch followed by implantable loop recorder (ILR) compared to ILR alone in cryptogenic stroke patients from the US health-care payors’ perspective.

Patients and Methods

A quantitative decision tree cost-minimization simulation model was developed. Eligible patients were 18 years of age or older and were diagnosed with having a cryptogenic stroke, without previously documented atrial fibrillation (AF). All patients were assigned first to one then to the alternative monitoring strategies. Following AF detection, patients were initiated on oral anticoagulants (OAC). The model assessed direct costs for one year attributed to MCOT patch followed by ILR or ILR alone using a monitoring duration of 30 days post-cryptogenic stroke.

Results

In the base case modeling, the MCOT patch arm detected 4.6 more patients with AFs compared to the ILR alone arm in a cohort of 1000 patients (209 vs 45 patients with detected AFs, respectively). Using MCOT patch followed by ILR in half of the patients initially undiagnosed with AF leads to significant cost savings of US$4,083,214 compared to ILR alone in a cohort of 1000 patients. Cost per patient with detected AF was significantly lower in the MCOT patch arm $29,598 vs $228,507 in the ILR only arm.

Conclusion

An initial strategy of 30-day electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring with MCOT patch in diagnosis of AF in cryptogenic stroke patients realizes significant cost-savings compared to proceeding directly to ILR only. Almost 8 times lower costs were achieved with improved detection rates and reduction of secondary stroke risk due to new anticoagulant use in subjects with MCOT patch detected AF. These results strengthen emerging recommendations for prolonged ECG monitoring in secondary stroke prevention.

Use of risk scores for predicting new atrial fibrillation after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack-A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Newly detected atrial fibrillation (NDAF) following an ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack is often paroxysmal in nature. While challenging to detect, extended electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring is often used to identify NDAF which has resource implications. Prognostic risk scores have been derived which may stratify the risk of NDAF and inform patient selection for ECG monitoring approaches after ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack.

AIM

The overall aim was to identify risk scores that were derived and/or validated to predict NDAF after ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack and evaluate their performance.

SUMMARY OF REVIEW

A systematic literature review was undertaken in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement, with application of the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy-2 tool. Published studies, which derived and validated clinical risk scores in patients with ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack, or externally validated an existing score to predict NDAF after ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack, were considered and independently screened by two reviewers. Twenty-one studies involving 23 separate cohorts were analyzed from which 17 integer-based risk scores were identified. The overall frequency of NDAF was 9.7% (95% confidence intervals 8%-11.5%; I²= 98%). The performance of the scores varied widely among derivation and validation cohorts (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.54-0.94); scores derived from stroke cohorts (12 scores) appeared to perform better (AUC 0.7-0.94) than those derived from non-stroke cohorts (five scores; AUC 0.53-0.79). The scores also varied considerably in their complexity, ascertainment, component variables, participant characteristics, outcome definition, and ease of application limiting their generalizability and utility.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the risk scores identified performed variably in their discriminative ability and the utility of these scores to predict NDAF in clinical practice remains uncertain. Further studies are required using larger prospective cohorts and randomized control trials to evaluate the usefulness of such scores for clinical decision making and preventative intervention.

Predicting atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke via a clinical risk score-a prospective observational study

Background and purpose

Atrial fibrillation (AF) often remains undiagnosed in cryptogenic stroke (CS), mostly because of limited availability of cardiac long‐term rhythm monitoring. There is an unmet need for a pre‐selection of CS patients benefitting from such work‐up. A clinical risk score was therefore developed for the prediction of AF after CS and its performance was evaluated over 1 year of follow‐up.

Methods

Our proposed risk score ranges from 0 to 16 points and comprises variables known to be associated with occult AF in CS patients including age, N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic features (supraventricular premature beats, atrial runs, atrial enlargement, left ventricular ejection fraction) and brain imaging markers (multi‐territory/prior cortical infarction). All CS patients admitted to our Stroke Unit between March 2018 and August 2019 were prospectively followed for AF detection over 1 year after discharge.

Results

During the 1‐year follow‐up, 24 (16%) out of 150 CS patients with AF (detected via electrocardiogram controls, n = 18; loop recorder monitoring, n = 6) were diagnosed. Our predefined AF Risk Score (cutoff ≥4 points; highest Youden's index) had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 67% for 1‐year prediction of AF. Notably, only two CS patients with <4 score points were diagnosed with AF later on (negative predictive value 98%).

Conclusions

A clinical risk score for 1‐year prediction of AF in CS with high sensitivity, reasonable specificity and excellent negative predictive value is presented. Generalizability of our score needs to be tested in external cohorts with continuous cardiac rhythm monitoring.

Cost-effectiveness of insertable cardiac monitors for diagnosis of atrial fibrillation in cryptogenic stroke in Australia

INTRODUCTION

Detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) is required to initiate oral anticoagulation (OAC) after cryptogenic stroke (CS). However, paroxysmal AF can be difficult to diagnose with short term cardiac monitoring. Taking an Australian payer perspective, we evaluated whether long-term continuous monitoring for 3 years with an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM) is cost-effective for preventing recurrent stroke in patients with CS.

METHODS

A lifetime Markov model was developed to simulate the follow-up of patients, comparing long-term continuous monitoring with an ICM to monitoring by conventional care. We used a linked evidence approach to estimate the rates of recurrent stroke when AF detection leads to initiation of OAC, as detected using ICM during the lifetime of the device or as detected using usual care. All diagnostic and patient management costs were modeled. Other model inputs were determined by literature review. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was undertaken to explore the effect of parameter uncertainty according to CHADS2 score and OAC treatment effect.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, the model predicted an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$29 570 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Among CHADS2 subgroups analyses, the ICER ranged from A$26 342/QALY (CHADS2 = 6) to A$42 967/QALY (CHADS2 = 2). PSA suggested that the probabilities of ICM strategy being cost-effective were 53.4% and 78.7%, at thresholds of $30 000 (highly cost-effective) and $50 000 per QALY (cost-effective), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term continuous monitoring with an ICM is a cost-effective intervention to prevent recurrent stroke in patients following CS in the Australian context.

Quality Improvement in Atrial Fibrillation detection after ischaemic stroke (QUIT-AF)

BACKGROUND

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) is a frequent cause of recurrent stroke but can be difficult to detect because of its episodic and often asymptomatic nature. We sought to improve rate of PAF detection through a quality improvement project (QIP) to deliver early prolonged inpatient cardiac monitoring on the stroke unit (SU).

METHODS

A structured protocol for cardiac monitoring using 5-day event recorders was established. 'In-house' cardiac monitoring was implemented. Performance data on this change in service was analysed prospectively and summary statistics obtained.

RESULTS

One-hundred and two ischaemic stroke (IS) patients undertook 5-day event recorder monitoring. Provision of monitors as an inpatient (IP) increased from 20% (pre-QIP pilot 2018) to 65.7% (during QIP). New AF was detected in 15 patients (14.7% vs 8.6% pre-QIP pilot 2018) with majority of new AF (13 patients; 19%) detected when monitors applied early (IP) after IS.

CONCLUSION

Although this study had a number of limitations, it did demonstrate that early and prolonged non-invasive IP cardiac monitoring could be delivered 'in-house' on the SU and improve AF detection rates.

Implantable cardiac monitors to detect atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Cryptogenic stroke is a stroke for which no cause is identified after standard diagnostic tests. Long-term implantable cardiac monitors may be better at diagnosing atrial fibrillation and provide an opportunity to reduce the risk of stroke recurrence with anticoagulants.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to assess the diagnostic test accuracy, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three implantable monitors [BioMonitor 2-AF™ (Biotronik SE & Co. KG, Berlin, Germany), Confirm Rx™ (Abbott Laboratories, Lake Bluff, IL, USA) and Reveal LINQ™ (Medtronic plc, Minneapolis, MN, USA)] in patients who have had a cryptogenic stroke and for whom no atrial fibrillation is detected after 24 hours of external electrocardiographic monitoring.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment databases were searched from inception until September 2018.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review was undertaken. Two reviewers agreed on studies for inclusion and performed quality assessment using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2.0 tool. Results were discussed narratively because there were insufficient data for synthesis. A two-stage de novo economic model was developed: (1) a short-term patient flow model to identify cryptogenic stroke patients who have had atrial fibrillation detected and been prescribed anticoagulation treatment (rather than remaining on antiplatelet treatment) and (2) a long-term Markov model that captured the lifetime costs and benefits of patients on either anticoagulation or antiplatelet treatment.

RESULTS

One randomised controlled trial, Cryptogenic Stroke and underlying Atrial Fibrillation (CRYSTAL-AF) (Sanna T, Diener HC, Passman RS, Di Lazzaro V, Bernstein RA, Morillo CA, et al. Cryptogenic stroke and underlying atrial fibrillation. N Engl J Med 2014;370:2478-86), was identified, and no diagnostic test accuracy study was identified. The CRYSTAL-AF trial compared the Reveal™ XT (a Reveal LINQ predecessor) (Medtronic plc) monitor with standard of care monitoring. Twenty-six single-arm observational studies for the Reveal devices were also identified. The only data for BioMonitor 2-AF or Confirm Rx were from mixed population studies supplied by the companies. Atrial fibrillation detection in the CRYSTAL-AF trial was higher with the Reveal XT than with standard monitoring at all time points. By 36 months, atrial fibrillation was detected in 19% of patients with an implantable cardiac monitor and in 2.3% of patients receiving conventional follow-up. The 26 observational studies demonstrated that, even in a cryptogenic stroke population, atrial fibrillation detection rates are highly variable and most cases are asymptomatic; therefore, they probably would not have been picked up without an implantable cardiac monitor. Device-related adverse events, such as pain and infection, were low in all studies. The de novo economic model produced incremental cost effectiveness ratios comparing implantable cardiac monitors with standard of care monitoring to detect atrial fibrillation in cryptogenic stroke patients based on data for the Reveal XT device, which can be related to Reveal LINQ. The BioMonitor 2-AF and Confirm RX were included in the analysis by making a strong assumption of equivalence with Reveal LINQ. The results indicate that implantable cardiac monitors could be considered cost-effective at a £20,000-30,000 threshold. When each device is compared incrementally, BioMonitor 2-AF dominates Reveal LINQ and Confirm RX.

LIMITATIONS

The cost-effectiveness analysis for implantable cardiac monitors is based on a strong assumption of clinical equivalence and should be interpreted with caution.

CONCLUSIONS

All three implantable cardiac monitors could be considered cost-effective at a £20,000-30,000 threshold, compared with standard of care monitoring, for cryptogenic stroke patients with no atrial fibrillation detected after 24 hours of external electrocardiographic monitoring; however, further clinical studies are required to confirm their efficacy in cryptogenic stroke patients.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018109216.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Left Atrial Diameter and Atrial Ectopic Burden in Patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: Risk Stratification of Atrial Fibrillation with Insertable Cardiac Monitor Analysis

Background and Purpose

An insertable cardiac monitor (ICM) has been demonstrated to be a useful tool for detecting subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). This study aimed to identify the clinical predictors of AF in ESUS patients with ICMs.

Methods

We retrospectively selected consecutive patients with an ICM implanted for AF detection following ESUS. The primary endpoint was defined as any AF episode lasting for longer than 5 min. The atrial ectopic burden (AEB) was calculated as the percentage of the number of conducted QRS from atrial ectopy on Holter monitoring.

Results

This study included 136 patients. AF lasting ≥5 min was detected in 20 patients (14.7%) during a median follow-up period of 6.6 months (interquartile range, 3.3–10.8 months). AF patients had a higher AEB (0.20% vs. 0.02%, p<0.001) and a larger left atrial diameter (LAD, 41.0 mm vs. 35.3 mm, p<0.001) than those without AF. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.795 and 0.816 for the LAD and log-transformed AEB, respectively, for the best cutoff values of 38.5 mm for LAD and 0.050% for AEB. AF lasting ≥5 min was detected in 34.6% (9/26) of patients with LAD ≥38.5 mm and AEB ≥0.050%, and in 0% (0/65) of those with LAD <38.5 mm and AEB <0.050%.

Conclusions

AF was detected in a significant proportion of ESUS patients during a 6.6-month follow-up. The LAD and AEB are good predictors of AF and might be useful for AF risk stratification in ESUS patients.

Burden of oral anticoagulation in embolic stroke of undetermined source without atrial fibrillation

Objective

Prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is challenging. The advent of safer anticoagulation in the form of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has prompted exploration of prophylactic anticoagulation for all ESUS patients, rather than anticoagulating just those with documented atrial fibrillation (AF). However, recent trials have failed to demonstrate a clinical benefit, while observing increased bleeding. We modeled the economic impact of anticoagulating ESUS patients without documented AF across multiple geographies.

Methods

CRYSTAL-AF trial data were used to assess ischaemic stroke event rates in ESUS patients confirmed AF-free after long-term monitoring. Anticipated bleeding event rates (including both minor and major bleeds) with aspirin, dabigatran 150 mg, and rivaroxaban 20 mg were sourced from published meta-analyses, whilst a 30% ischaemic stroke reduction for both DOACs was assumed. Cost data for clinical events and pharmaceuticals were collected from the local payer perspective.

Results

Compared with aspirin, dabigatran and rivaroxaban resulted in 17.9 and 29.9 additional bleeding events per 100 patients over a patient’s lifetime, respectively. Despite incorporating into our model the proposed 30% reduction in ischaemic stroke risk, both DOACs were cost-additive over patient lifetime, as the costs of bleeding events and pharmaceuticals outweighed cost savings associated with the reduction in ischaemic strokes. DOACs added £5953–£7018 per patient (UK), €6683–€7368 (Netherlands), €4933–€9378 (Spain), AUD$5353–6539 (Australia) and $26,768–$32,259 (US) of payer cost depending on the agent prescribed. Additionally, in the U.S. patient pharmacy co-payments ranged from $2468–$12,844 depending on agent and patient plan. In all settings, cost-savings could not be demonstrated even when the modelling assumed 100% protection from recurrent ischaemic strokes, due to the very low underlying risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke in this population (1.27 per 100 patient-years).

Conclusions

Anticoagulation of non-AF patients may cause excess bleeds and add substantial costs for uncertain benefits, suggesting a personalised approach to anticoagulation in ESUS patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-021-01967-x.

Practices of decision making in priority setting and resource allocation: a scoping review and narrative synthesis of existing frameworks

BACKGROUND

Due to growing expenditures, health systems have been pushed to improve decision-making practices on resource allocation. This study aimed to identify which practices of priority setting and resource allocation (PSRA) have been used in healthcare systems of high-income countries.

METHODS

A scoping literature review (2007-2019) was conducted to map empirical PSRA activities. A two-stage screening process was utilized to identify existing approaches and cluster similar frameworks. That was complemented with a gray literature and horizontal scanning. A narrative synthesis was carried out to make sense of the existing literature and current state of PSRA practices in healthcare.

RESULTS

One thousand five hundred eighty five references were found in the peer-reviewed literature and 25 papers were selected for full-review. We identified three major types of decision-making framework in PSRA: 1) Program Budgeting and Marginal Analysis (PBMA); 2) Health Technology Assessment (HTA); and 3) Multiple-criteria value assessment. Our narrative synthesis indicates these formal frameworks of priority setting and resource allocation have been mostly implemented in episodic exercises with poor follow-up and evaluation. There seems to be growing interest for explicit robust rationales and ample stakeholder involvement, but that has not been the norm in the process of allocating resources within healthcare systems of high-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

No single dominate framework for PSRA appeared as the preferred approach across jurisdictions, but common elements exist both in terms of process and structure. Decision-makers worldwide can draw on our work in designing and implementing PSRA processes in their contexts.

Patterns of Infarction on MRI in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and Cardio-Embolism: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Cardioembolic strokes are common however atrial fibrillation, the most common cause, is often asymptomatic and difficult to detect. There is evidence that infarct topography and volume on magnetic resonance imaging may be associated with specific stroke etiologies.

Aim: A systematic review and meta-analysis were undertaken to summarize the available evidence on the association between stroke etiology, infarct topography, and volume.

Methods: A systematic review was conducted using Medline (OVID), Embase (OVID), and PubMed databases. Hand searches of the gray literature and of reference lists in relevant articles were also performed. A quality assessment was undertaken, based on the STROBE checklist. For each study, the number of patients with and without a CE source of stroke and infarct topography was collected and outcomes presented as odds ratios (OR) with 95% CI and p-values.

Results: Four thousand eight hundred and seventy-three patients with ischemic stroke were included, of whom 1,559 were determined to have a CE source. Bilateral infarcts (OR 3.41; 95% CI 2.20–5.29; p < 0.0001) and multiple territory infarcts (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.12–2.21; p = 0.009) were more common in patients with a CE source of stroke, than patients without a CE source. Lacunar infarcts (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.31–0.80; p = 0.004) were more likely to occur in patients without a CE source. No significant difference between the frequency of multiple infarcts (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.57–1.61; p = 0.87) anterior circulation (OR 1.45; 95% CI 0.83–2.53; p = 0.19) or posterior circulation infarcts (OR 1.06; 95% CI 0.72–1.57; p = 0.75), between the two groups were identified. Three out of four studies examining volume, found a significant association between increased infarct volume and CE source of stroke. A sensitivity analysis with cryptogenic and undetermined stroke sources assumed to be cardioembolic, did not alter the associations observed.

Conclusion: The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis are broadly consistent with previous literature and provide more robust evidence on the association between infarct topography, volume and stroke etiology. Our findings may assist with refining cardiac investigations for patients with cryptogenic stroke, based on infarct topography.

Economic evaluation of extended electrocardiogram monitoring for atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke

BACKGROUND

Timely identification of occult atrial fibrillation following cryptogenic stroke facilitates consideration of oral anticoagulation therapy. Extended electrocardiography monitoring beyond 24 to 48 h Holter monitoring improves atrial fibrillation detection rates, yet uncertainty remains due to upfront costs and the projected long-term benefit. We sought to determine the cost-effectiveness of three electrocardiography monitoring strategies in detecting atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke.

METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model was used to project the costs and outcomes of three different electrocardiography monitoring strategies (i.e. 30-day electrocardiography monitoring, three-year implantable loop recorder monitoring, and conventional Holter monitoring) in acute stroke survivors without previously documented atrial fibrillation.

RESULTS

The lifetime discounted costs and quality-adjusted life years were $206,385 and 7.77 quality-adjusted life years for conventional monitoring, $207,080 and 7.79 quality-adjusted life years for 30-day extended electrocardiography monitoring, and $210,728 and 7.88 quality-adjusted life years for the implantable loop recorder strategy. Additional quality-adjusted life years could be attained at a more favorable incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year with the implantable loop recorder strategy, compared with the 30-day electrocardiography monitoring strategy, thereby eliminating the 30-day strategy by extended dominance. The implantable loop recorder strategy was associated with an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained of $40,796 compared with conventional monitoring. One-way sensitivity analyses indicated that the model was most sensitive to the rate of recurrent ischemic stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

An implantable loop recorder strategy for detection of occult atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke is more economically attractive than 30-day electrocardiography monitoring compared to conventional monitoring and is associated with a cost per quality-adjusted life year gained in the range of other publicly funded therapies. The value proposition is improved when considering patients at the highest risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. However, the implantable loop recorder strategy is associated with increased health care costs, and the opportunity cost of wide scale implementation must be considered.

Value of treatment by comprehensive stroke services for the reduction of critical gaps in acute stroke care in Europe

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and dependency in Europe and costs the European Union more than €30bn, yet significant gaps in the patient pathway remain and the cost-effectiveness of comprehensive stroke care to meet these needs is unknown. The European Brain Council Value of Treatment Initiative combined patient representatives, stroke experts, neurological societies and literature review to identify unmet needs in the patient pathway according to Rotterdam methodology. The cost-effectiveness of comprehensive stroke services was determined by a Markov model, using UK cost data as an exemplar and efficacy data for prevention of death and dependency from published systematic reviews and trials, expressing effectiveness as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Model outcomes included total costs, total QALYs, incremental costs, incremental QALYs and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Key unmet needs in the stroke patient pathway included inadequate treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF), access to neurorehabilitation and implementation of comprehensive stroke services. In the Markov model, full implementation of comprehensive stroke services was associated with a 9.8% absolute reduction in risk of death of dependency, at an intervention cost of £9566 versus £6640 for standard care, and long-term care costs of £35 169 per 5.1251 QALYS vs. £32 347.40 per 4.5853 QALYs, resulting in an ICER of £5227.89. Results were robust in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Implementation of comprehensive stroke services is a cost-effective approach to meet unmet needs in the stroke patient pathway, to improve acute stroke care and support better treatment of AF and access to neurorehabilitation.

Left Atrial Appendage Thrombus Detected During Hyperacute Stroke Imaging Is Associated With Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Left atrial appendage (LAA) is the likely embolic source in atrial fibrillation (AF)-related cardioembolic strokes. We sought to determine the prevalence of LAA thrombus on hyperacute stroke imaging and its association with AF.

METHODS

We retrospectively examined the clinical and radiological features of patients assessed through the hyperacute stroke imaging pathway over a 12-month period at Christchurch Hospital. The LAA was included in the computed tomography angiogram scan-range as part of the multimodal imaging protocol. Two radiological readers blinded to clinical information independently assessed for the presence of LAA thrombus. The association between AF and LAA thrombus was determined by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 303 patients included in the analysis, the overall prevalence of LAA thrombus was 6.6% and 14.9% in patients with known AF. Patients with LAA thrombus were older (85 versus 75 years, P<0.01), more commonly had known or newly diagnosed AF (75% versus 30%, P<0.01) and heart failure (30% versus 8%, P=0.01), and was associated with intracranial large vessel occlusion (65% versus 39%, P=0.02). In the multivariable model, AF (odds ratio, 3.71 [95% CI, 1.25-11.01] P=0.02) was independently associated with LAA thrombus after adjusting for age and congestive heart failure. Interrater reliability was moderate (kappa=0.56).

CONCLUSIONS

LAA thrombus is a potential radiological marker of AF and can be assessed as a part of hyperacute stroke imaging.

Patient-reported feasibility of chest and thumb ECG after cryptogenic stroke in Sweden: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility, based on a questionnaire, of the chest and thumb ECG system Coala Heart Monitor in patients who recently had a stroke.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Two stroke units, Region Gävleborg, Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS

This study, Transient ECG Assessment in Stroke Evaluation (TEASE), included patients who had a stroke between 2017 and 2019. Patients eligible for anticoagulation in the presence of atrial fibrillation were scheduled for 28 days monitoring.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The questionnaire regarding feasibility of monitoring included seven questions, using a 100 mm Visual Analogue Scale which covered overall satisfaction, technical feasibility, remember to monitor, physical application, feeling of security, help from others and recommendation to others. A lower score indicated better outcome.

RESULTS

The prespecified number of 100 patients underwent the monitoring and 83 out of the 97 alive patients returned the questionnaire (response rate 85.6%). The median age was 69.5 years, mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was 4.4±1.3 points and 59.0% were men (n=49). The median time from index stroke to start of monitoring was 7.0 days. Patients performed on average 90.1%±15.0% of scheduled ECG-transmissions. In all seven questions, the median score ranged from 4 to 8. The vast majority reported acceptable outcomes, that is, the 95th percentile ranged from 30 to 54. There was no significant difference between men and women with regard to any of the seven questions (p values ranging from 0.117 to 0.849). Two of the seven outcome scores correlated significantly to patient age (Spearman's r=-0.238 and r=-0.308, and p values 0.031 and 0.005 for 'overall satisfaction' and 'remember to monitor', respectively).

CONCLUSION

In stroke survivors, chest and thumb ECG two times per day over a period of 4 weeks is feasible from a patient's perspective. The Coala Heart Monitor provides a valuable and convenient tool for monitoring after stroke.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03301662.

The 2020 Canadian Cardiovascular Society/Canadian Heart Rhythm Society Comprehensive Guidelines for the Management of Atrial Fibrillation

The Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) atrial fibrillation (AF) guidelines program was developed to aid clinicians in the management of these complex patients, as well as to provide direction to policy makers and health care systems regarding related issues. The most recent comprehensive CCS AF guidelines update was published in 2010. Since then, periodic updates were published dealing with rapidly changing areas. However, since 2010 a large number of developments had accumulated in a wide range of areas, motivating the committee to complete a thorough guideline review. The 2020 iteration of the CCS AF guidelines represents a comprehensive renewal that integrates, updates, and replaces the past decade of guidelines, recommendations, and practical tips. It is intended to be used by practicing clinicians across all disciplines who care for patients with AF. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) system was used to evaluate recommendation strength and the quality of evidence. Areas of focus include: AF classification and definitions, epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical evaluation, screening and opportunistic AF detection, detection and management of modifiable risk factors, integrated approach to AF management, stroke prevention, arrhythmia management, sex differences, and AF in special populations. Extensive use is made of tables and figures to synthesize important material and present key concepts. This document should be an important aid for knowledge translation and a tool to help improve clinical management of this important and challenging arrhythmia.

Diagnostic yield of chest and thumb ECG after cryptogenic stroke, Transient ECG Assessment in Stroke Evaluation (TEASE): an observational trial

OBJECTIVE

In stroke survivors, atrial fibrillation (AF) is typically evaluated solely by short-term ECG monitoring in the stroke unit. Prolonged continuous ECG monitoring or insertable cardiac monitors require substantial resources. Chest and thumb ECG could provide an alternative means of AF detection, which in turn could allow prompt anticoagulation to prevent recurrent stroke. The objective of this study was to assess the yield of newly diagnosed AF during 28 days of chest and thumb ECG monitoring two times per day in cryptogenic stroke.

METHODS

This study, Transient ECG Assessment in Stroke Evaluation, included patients who had a stroke from Region Gävleborg, Sweden, between 2017 and 2019. Patients with a recent ischaemic stroke without documented AF (or other reasons for anticoagulation) before or during ECG evaluation in the stroke unit were evaluated using the Coala Heart Monitor connected to a smartphone application for remote monitoring.

RESULTS

The prespecified number of 100 patients (mean age 67.6±10.8 years; 60% men) was analysed. In nine patients (9%, number needed to screen 11) AF but no other significant atrial arrhythmias (>30 s) was diagnosed. The mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was similar among patients with AF and no AF (4.9±1.1 vs 4.3±1.3; p=0.224) and patients with AF were older (74.3±9.0 vs 66.9±10.8; p=0.049). Patients performed on average 90.1%±15.0% of scheduled transmissions.

CONCLUSION

In evaluation of cryptogenic stroke, 9% of patients had AF detected using chest and thumb ECG two times per day during 1 month. In many stroke survivors, this is a feasible approach and they will be potentially protected from recurrent stroke by anticoagulation treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03301662.

Predictors of atrial fibrillation detection and features of recurrent strokes in patients after cryptogenic stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Use of implantable cardiac monitors (ICMs) has increased diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) in cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients. Identifying AF predictors may enhance the yield of AF detection. Recurrent strokes after CS are not well described. We aimed to assess the predictors for AF detection and the characteristics of recurrent strokes in patients after CS.

METHODS

We reviewed electronic medical records of CS patients who were admitted between February 2014 and September 2017 and underwent ICM placement with minimum one-year follow-up. Patient demographics, stroke characteristics, pre-defined risk factors as well as recurrent strokes were compared between patients with and without AF detection.

RESULTS

389 patients with median follow-up of 548 days were studied. AF was detected in 102 patients (26.2%). Age (per decade increase, OR 2.10, CI 1.64-2.68, with vs. without AF) and left atrium diameter (per 5 mm increase, OR 1.91, CI 1.33-2.74) were identified as AF predictors. Intracranial large vessel stenosis >50% irrelevant to the index strokes was associated with AF detection within 30 days (OR 0.24, CI 0.09-0.69, >30 vs. <30 days). Recurrent strokes occurred in 14% patients with median follow-up about 2.5 years. Topography of these strokes resembled embolic pattern and was comparable between patients with and without AF. Among recurrent strokes in patients with AF, the median time to AF detection was much shorter (90 vs. 251 days), and the median time to first stroke recurrence was much longer (422 vs. 76 days) in patients whose strokes recurred after AF detection than those before AF detection.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age and enlarged left atrium are predictors for AF detection in CS patients. Intracranial atherosclerosis is more prevalent in patients with early AF detection within 30 days. Recurrent strokes follow the embolic pattern, and early AF detection could delay the stroke recurrence.

Cost-Effectiveness of Extended Electrocardiogram Monitoring for Atrial Fibrillation After Stroke

Background and Purpose:

Management of cryptogenic stroke involves the identification of modifiable risk factors, such as atrial fibrillation (AF). Extended rhythm monitoring increases AF detection rates but at an increased device cost compared with conventional Holter monitoring. The objective of the study was to identify and synthesize the existing literature on the cost-effectiveness of prolonged rhythm monitoring devices for AF detection in cryptogenic stroke.

Methods:

We conducted a systematic review of available economic evaluations of prolonged ECG monitoring for AF detection following cryptogenic stroke compared with standard care.

Results:

Of the 530 unique citations, 8 studies assessed the cost-utility of prolonged ECG monitoring compared with standard care following cryptogenic stroke. The prolonged ECG monitoring strategies included 7-day ambulatory monitoring, 30-day external loop recorders or intermittent ECG monitoring, and implantable loop recorders. The majority of cost-utility analyses reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below $50 000 per QALY gained; and two studies reported a cost-savings.

Conclusions:

There is limited economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of extended ECG monitoring devices for detection of atrial fibrillation in cryptogenic stroke. In patients with cryptogenic stroke, extended ECG monitoring for AF detection may be economically attractive when traditional willingness-to-pay thresholds are adopted. However, there was substantial variation in the reported ICERs. The direct comparison of cost-effectiveness across technologies is limited by heterogeneity in modeling assumptions.

Atrial fibrillation monitoring with wrist-worn photoplethysmography-based wearables: State-of-the-art review

Early detection and diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) is essential in order to prevent stroke and other severe health consequences. The challenges in diagnosing AF arise from its intermittent and asymptomatic nature. Wrist-worn devices that use monitoring based on photoplethysmography have been proposed recently as a possible solution because of their ability to monitor heart rate and rhythm for long periods of time at low cost. Long-term continuous monitoring with implantable devices has been shown to increase the percentage of detected AF episodes, but the additional value of wrist-worn devices has yet to be determined. In this review, we present the state of the art in AF detection with wrist-worn devices, discuss the potential of the technology and current knowledge gaps, and propose directions for future research. The state-of-the-art methods show excellent accuracy for AF detection. However, most of the studies were conducted in hospital settings, and more studies showing the accuracy of the technology for ambulatory long-term monitoring are needed. Objective comparison of results and methodologies among different studies currently is difficult due to the lack of adequate public datasets.

Searching for Atrial Fibrillation Poststroke: A White Paper of the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration

Cardiac thromboembolism attributed to atrial fibrillation (AF) is responsible for up to one-third of ischemic strokes. Stroke may be the first manifestation of previously undetected AF. Given the efficacy of oral anticoagulants in preventing AF-related ischemic strokes, strategies of searching for AF after a stroke using ECG monitoring followed by oral anticoagulation (OAC) treatment have been proposed to prevent recurrent cardioembolic strokes. This white paper by experts from the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration summarizes existing evidence and knowledge gaps on searching for AF after a stroke by using ECG monitoring. New AF can be detected by routine plus intensive ECG monitoring in approximately one-quarter of patients with ischemic stroke. It may be causal, a bystander, or neurogenically induced by the stroke. AF after a stroke is a risk factor for thromboembolism and a strong marker for atrial myopathy. After acute ischemic stroke, patients should undergo 72 hours of electrocardiographic monitoring to detect AF. The diagnosis requires an ECG of sufficient quality for confirmation by a health professional with ECG rhythm expertise. AF detection rate is a function of monitoring duration and quality of analysis, AF episode definition, interval from stroke to monitoring commencement, and patient characteristics including old age, certain ECG alterations, and stroke type. Markers of atrial myopathy (eg, imaging, atrial ectopy, natriuretic peptides) may increase AF yield from monitoring and could be used to guide patient selection for more intensive/prolonged poststroke ECG monitoring. Atrial myopathy without detected AF is not currently sufficient to initiate OAC. The concept of embolic stroke of unknown source is not proven to identify patients who have had a stroke benefitting from empiric OAC treatment. However, some embolic stroke of unknown source subgroups (eg, advanced age, atrial enlargement) might benefit more from non-vitamin K-dependent OAC therapy than aspirin. Fulfilling embolic stroke of unknown source criteria is an indication neither for empiric non-vitamin K-dependent OAC treatment nor for withholding prolonged ECG monitoring for AF. Clinically diagnosed AF after a stroke or a transient ischemic attack is associated with significantly increased risk of recurrent stroke or systemic embolism, in particular, with additional stroke risk factors, and requires OAC rather than antiplatelet therapy. The minimum subclinical AF duration required on ECG monitoring poststroke/transient ischemic attack to recommend OAC therapy is debated.

Use of insertable cardiac monitors for the detection of atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke in the United States is cost-effective

Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and a major marker of ischemic stroke risk. Early detection is crucial and, once diagnosed, anticoagulation therapy can be initiated to reduce stroke risk. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of employing an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM), BIOMONITOR, for the detection of AF compared to standard of care (SoC) ECG and Holter monitoring in patients with cryptogenic stroke, that is, stroke of unknown origin and where paroxysmal, silent AF is suspected. Materials and methods: A Markov model was developed which consisted of five main health states reflecting the potential lifetime evolution of the AF disease: post cryptogenic stroke (index event), subsequent mild, moderate and severe stroke, and death. Sub-states were included to track a patient's AF diagnostic status and the use of antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy. AF detection was assumed to result in a treatment switch from aspirin to anticoagulants, except among those with a history of major bleeding. Detection yield and accuracy, clinical actions and treatment effects were derived from the literature and validated by an expert clinician. All relevant costs from a US Medicare perspective were included. Results and conclusions: An ICM-based strategy was associated with a reduction of 37 secondary ischemic strokes per 1000 patients monitored compared with SoC. Total per-patient costs with an ICM were higher (US$90,052 vs. US$85,157) although stroke-related costs were reduced. The use of an ICM was associated with a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$18,487 per life year gained compared with SoC and US$25,098 per quality-adjusted life year gained, below established willingness-to-pay thresholds. The conclusions were found to be robust over a range of input values. From a US Medicare perspective the use of a BIOMONITOR ICM represents a cost-effective diagnostic strategy for patients with cryptogenic stroke and suspected AF.

Detection of atrial fibrillation using an implantable loop recorder following cryptogenic stroke: implications for post-stroke electrocardiographic monitoring

PURPOSE

Approximately 10-40% of strokes are cryptogenic (CS). Long-term electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring has been recommended in these patients to search for atrial fibrillation (AF). An unresolved issue is whether ambulatory ECG (AECG) monitoring should be performed first, followed by an implantable loop recorder (ILR) if AECG monitoring is non-diagnostic, or whether long-term ECG monitoring should be initiated using ILRs from the onset. The purpose of this study was to assess, using an ILR, AF incidence in the first month after CS.

METHODS

We enrolled consecutive CS patients referred for an ILR. All patients were monitored via in-hospital continuous telemetry from admission until the ILR (Medtronic [Minneapolis, MN] LINQ™) was implanted. The duration and overall burden of all AF episodes ≥ 2 min was determined.

RESULTS

The cohort included 343 patients (68 ± 11 years, CHA₂DS₂-VASc 3.5 ± 1.7). The time between stroke and ILR was 3.7 ± 1.5 days. During the first 30 days, only 18 (5%) patients had AF. All episodes were paroxysmal, lasting from 2 min to 67 h and 24 min. The median AF burden was 0.85% (IQR 0.52, 10.75). During 1 year of follow-up, 67 (21%) patients had AF.

CONCLUSION

The likelihood of AF detection by an ILR in the first month post-CS is low. Thus, the diagnostic yield of 30 days of AECG monitoring is likely to be limited. These data suggest a rationale for proceeding directly to ILR implantation prior to hospital discharge in CS patients, as many have AF detected during longer follow-up.

Relationship between left atrial strain, diastolic dysfunction and subclinical atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke: the SURPRISE echo substudy

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) may be the cause of a substantial part of cryptogenic strokes (CS). Echocardiography could assist risk stratification for PAF to select patients in need of prolonged rhythm monitoring. We aimed to assess the value of left atrial (LA) strain and a revised diastolic dysfunction (DDF) model with LA strain for predicting PAF. This was a prospective study of 56 CS patients who had a cardiac monitor implanted for 3 year monitoring for PAF, and an echocardiogram performed prior to monitoring. Conventional echocardiography, global longitudinal strain (GLS) and LA strain were performed. LA speckle tracking provided the LA reservoir strain (LAs). Patients were stratified into high versus low LAs by ROC curves (28.2%), and this cut-off was used to refine DDF grading. During follow-up of median 20 months, 13 (23%) patients were diagnosed with PAF. No conventional echocardiographic parameters differed between patients who developed PAF and those without PAF. However, LAs was significantly impaired in PAF patients (LAs: 30 vs. 27% for non-PAF and PAF, p = 0.046). Low LAs significantly predicted PAF independent of LA volume and GLS [OR 5.88 (1.30; 26.55), p = 0.021]. Revised DDF grading significantly predicted PAF, even when adjusted for the CHADS₂ risk-score (OR 1.88 [1.01;3.50], per increase in DDF grade, p for trend = 0.047), which was not the case for conventional DDF grading. In conclusion, LAs associates with PAF independent of GLS and LA size, and may be used to improve the performance of DDF grading for identifying PAF in CS patients.

Assessing value in health care: using an interpretive classification system to understand existing practices based on a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Implementing adequate strategies to assess the value of health services plays a central role in the effort to deal with the financial pressures faced by health care systems worldwide. This study aimed to understand which approaches to value assessment have been used in developed countries.

METHODS

We conducted a rapid review and a gray literature search to identify value assessment frameworks. A two-stage screening process was utilized to identify existing approaches and cluster similar frameworks. In addition, we developed an interpretive classification system to make sense of existing approaches.

RESULTS

One thousand one hundred seventy-six references were identified and 38 papers were selected for full-review. Among these 38 articles, 22 distinct approaches to assess value of health care interventions were identified and classified according to four points: 1) use of single or multiple considerations to base value estimates; 2) use of disease-specific or generic criteria; 3) reliance on process-based or outcomes-based consideration; and 4) type of input and evidence considered.

CONCLUSIONS

The contextual nature of value assessment in health care becomes evident with the diversity of existing approaches. Despite the predominance of cases relying on the Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as the measure of value, this approach has not been sufficient to meet the needs of decision-makers. The use of multiple criteria has become more and more important, as well as the consideration of patient-reported measures. Considerations of costs are not always explicit and consistent.

Blood Biomarkers of Heart Failure and Hypercoagulation to Identify Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke

Background and Purpose- Occult atrial fibrillation (AF) causes a relevant proportion of initially cryptogenic stroke (CS), but prolonged rhythm monitoring is difficult to apply to all such patients. We hypothesized that blood biomarkers indicating heart failure (NT-proBNP [N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide]) and hypercoagulability (D-dimer, AT-III [antithrombin-III]) were associated with AF-related stroke and could serve to predict the likelihood of AF detection in CS patients early on. Methods- Over a 1-year period, we prospectively applied a defined etiologic work-up to all ischemic stroke patients admitted to our stroke unit. If no clear stroke cause was detected (CS), patients underwent extended in-hospital cardiac rhythm monitoring (≥72 hours). Blood to determine biomarker levels was drawn within 24 hours after admission. Results- Of 429 patients, 103 had AF-related stroke. Compared with noncardiac stroke patients (n=171), they had higher NT-proBNP (1867 versus 263 pg/ml) and D-dimer levels (1.1 versus 0.6 µg/ml), and lower AT-III concentration (89% versus 94%). NT-proBNP ≥505 pg/ml distinguished AF-related from noncardiac stroke with a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 72%. D-dimer and AT-III cutoffs had lower sensitivities (61% and 53%) and specificities (58% and 69%) for AF-related stroke. Of all initially 143 CS patients, 14 were diagnosed with AF during in-hospital monitoring. The preidentified NT-proBNP cutoff ≥505 pg/ml correctly predicted AF in 12 of them (86%, negative predictive value: 98%), while D-dimer and AT-III cutoffs were noncontributory. Conclusions- This study supports the association of NT-proBNP and to a lesser extent of hypercoagulation markers with AF-related stroke. NT-proBNP seems helpful in selecting CS patients for immediate extended cardiac rhythm monitoring to detect occult AF whereby levels <505 pg/ml seem to have a high-negative predictive value.

High Detection Rate of Atrial Fibrillation With Insertable Cardiac Monitor Implantation in Patients With Cryptogenic Stroke Diagnosed by Magnetic Resonance Imaging

BACKGROUND

Detection and treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major goal in preventing secondary stroke. Insertable cardiac monitors (ICMs) are available for diagnosis of arrhythmia monitoring in patients with cryptogenic stroke. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based diagnostic evaluation for acute ischemic stroke subtype classification is common in Japan and can be useful for specific diagnosis of cryptogenic stroke.

PURPOSE

We aimed to investigate the detection rate of AF with an ICM in patients with cryptogenic stroke who were diagnosed by MRI.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, multicenter, observational study. AF monitoring data of an ICM (Reveal LINQ) in patients with cryptogenic stroke were registered from 5 stroke centers in Japan between October 2016 and March 2018. ICM candidates in cryptogenic stroke were diagnosed by MRI-based evaluation and selected according to the criteria proposed by the Japan Stroke Society. Detection of AF was defined as AF for longer than 120 seconds.

RESULTS

Eighty-four consecutive patients (64 men; aged 38-90 years) underwent ICM implantation after diagnosis of cryptogenic stroke. AF was detected in 22 of 84 (26.2%) patients with an ICM during a median follow-up of 221.5 days (range: 93-365 days). The detection rate of AF within 3 months after ICM implantation was 21.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

The AF detection rate with an ICM is approximately one fifth within 3 months in patients with cryptogenic stroke as diagnosed by MRI. Our data suggest that the Japanese criteria based on MRI may be useful for selecting adequate candidates for ICM implantation.

Cost-effectiveness of an insertable cardiac monitor in a high-risk population in the UK

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of insertable cardiac monitors (ICMs) compared with standard of care (SoC) for detecting atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients at high risk of stroke (CHADS₂ >2), using a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective.

Methods

Using patient characteristics and clinical data from the REVEAL AF trial, a Markov model assessed the cost-effectiveness of detecting AF with an ICM compared with SoC. Costs and benefits were extrapolated across modelled patient lifetime. Ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes, intracranial and extracranial haemorrhages and minor bleeds were modelled. Diagnostic and device costs were included, plus costs of treating stroke and bleeding events and costs of oral anticoagulants (OACs). Costs and health outcomes, measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), were discounted at 3.5% per annum. One-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were undertaken.

Results

The total per-patient cost for ICM was £13 360 versus £11 936 for SoC (namely, annual 24 hours Holter monitoring). ICMs generated a total of 6.50 QALYs versus 6.30 for SoC. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £7140/QALY gained, below the £20 000/QALY acceptability threshold. ICMs were cost-effective in 77.4% of PSA simulations. The number of ICMs needed to prevent one stroke was 21 and to cause a major bleed was 37. ICERs were sensitive to assumed proportions of patients initiating or discontinuing OAC after AF diagnosis, type of OAC used and how intense the traditional monitoring was assumed to be under SoC.

Conclusions

The use of ICMs to identify AF in a high-risk population is cost-effective for the UK NHS.

Evaluation of a clinical score for predicting atrial fibrillation in cryptogenic stroke patients with insertable cardiac monitors: results from the CRYSTAL AF study

Background

The HAVOC score was previously developed to predict the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) after cryptogenic stroke (CS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA). The purpose of this study was to apply the HAVOC score to patients who received insertable cardiac monitors (ICMs) in the CRYSTAL AF study.

Methods

All patients from the CRYSTAL AF study who received an ICM were included. HAVOC score (one point each for peripheral vascular disease and obesity with body mass index >30, two points each for hypertension, age ⩾ 75, valvular heart disease, and coronary artery disease, 4 points for congestive heart failure) was computed for all patients. The primary endpoint was AF detection by 12 months of ICM monitoring.

Results

A total of 214 patients who received ICM were included. AF was detected in 40 patients while the remaining 174 patients were AF negative. The HAVOC score was significantly higher among patients with AF [median 3.0 with interquartile range (IQR) 2-4] than those without AF [median 2.0 (IQR 0-3)], p = 0.01. AF increased significantly across the three HAVOC score groups: 11% in Group A (score 0-1), 18% in Group B (score 2-3), and 32 % in Group C (score ⩾ 4) with p = 0.02.

Conclusions

The HAVOC score was shown in this post hoc analysis of CRYSTAL AF to successfully stratify AF risk post CS or TIA. The 11% AF rate in the lowest HAVOC score group highlights the significance of nontraditional contributors to AF and ischemic stroke.

Recommendations on the use of innovative medical technologies in cardiology and cardiac surgery and solutions leading to increased availability for Polish patients

There is a great need for innovative technologies that will improve the health and quality of life (QoL) of Polish patients with cardiac problems. It is important that the safety and effectiveness of the technology are confirmed by scientific evidence on which guidelines and clinical recommendations are based. Scientific evidence for medical devices is also increasingly important for decision-making in finance approval from public funds. New technologies in cardiology and cardiac surgery contribute to improved patient QoL, increased treatment effectiveness and facilitated diagnosis. Hence, it is necessary to increase accessibility to such technologies, primarily through the development of clinical recommendations, and education of medical personnel in conjunction with public funding. The aim of this publication is to present the recommendations of leading experts in the field of cardiology and cardiosurgery, supported by clinical research results, regarding the use of the cited innovative medical technologies and solutions leading to their increased availability for Polish patients.

Implantable Loop Recorders for Cryptogenic Stroke (Plus Real-World Atrial Fibrillation Detection Rate with Implantable Loop Recorders)

Cryptogenic stroke (CS) represents 10%-40% of ischemic strokes and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality and high risk of recurrence. Undetected atrial fibrillation is an important consideration in these patients. Tools for electrocardiographic monitoring range from 12-lead electrocardiogram to implantable loop recorders (ILRs). ILRs have become an important tool for long-term electrocardiogram monitoring in CS patients. Advancements in ILR technology are needed to ensure more robust connectivity and to help triage incoming data. An unresolved issue is what duration of AF indicates that the CS patient is at high risk for recurrent stroke and thus would benefit from initiation of anticoagulation.

Insertable cardiac monitors: current indications and devices

INTRODUCTION

Recurrent unexplained syncope is a well-established indication for an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM). Recently, the indications for an ICM have been expanded.

AREAS COVERED

This review article discusses the current indications for ICMs and gives an overview of the latest generation of commercially available ICMs.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

The 2018 ESC Syncope guidelines have expanded the indications for an ICM to patients with inherited cardiomyopathy, inherited channelopathy, suspected unproven epilepsy, and unexplained falls. ICMs are also increasingly used for the detection of subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with cryptogenic stroke. Whether treatment of subclinical AF (SCAF) with oral anticoagulation prevents recurrent stroke is yet unknown. The current generation of ICMs are smaller, easier to implant, have better diagnostics, and are capable of remote monitoring. The Reveal LINQ (Medtronic) is the smallest ICM and has the most extensive performance and clinical data. The BioMonitor 2 (Biotronik) is the largest ICM but has excellent R-wave amplitudes, longest longevity, and reliable remote monitoring. The Confirm Rx (Abbott) is capable to provide mobile data transmission enabled by a smartphone app. Future generation of ICMs will incorporate heart failures indices to facilitate remote monitoring of heart failure patients.

Newer technologies for detection of atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia that is associated with increased risk of stroke, which can be reduced with appropriate anticoagulation treatment. However, it remains underdiagnosed in contemporary clinical practice using conventional detection methods, resulting in missed opportunities to implement appropriate treatment. Newer technologies developed in recent years can potentially enhance the detection of atrial fibrillation and overcome certain limitations of the conventional methods. However, uncertainties remain about their use and the significance of atrial fibrillation detected by some of these newer technologies. This review examines the evidence supporting the use of some of these technologies and evaluates their applications in certain clinical scenarios.

Long-term monitoring to detect atrial fibrillation with the indwelling implantable cardiac monitors

An increasing number of detection tools are available and several detection strategies have been described to pursue the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation to prevent ischemic stroke. Monitoring tools include standard electrocardiography, snapshot single-lead recordings with professional or personal devices (e.g. smartphone-based), Holter monitor, external devices with long-term recording capabilities, and cardiac implantable electronic devices, including pacemakers, implantable cardioverter defibrillators and insertable cardiac monitors. Insertable cardiac monitors have shown high sensitivity and specificity for the detection of atrial fibrillation, allow up to three years of continuous monitoring, do not require cooperation of the patient, are well tolerated, have a short device-related time delay between detection of atrial fibrillation and notification to the physician, provide information on atrial fibrillation burden and are minimally invasive. On the other hand, insertable cardiac monitors require a considerable use of resources to process the recordings and have a significant initial cost. Studies conducted with insertable cardiac monitors on patients with prior stroke and on patients with risk factors for stroke but no prior cerebrovascular events or atrial fibrillation have consistently shown a measurable incidence of atrial fibrillation at follow-up. However, the effectiveness of oral anticoagulations in reducing the incidence of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation lasting less than 24 h, though reasonable, is currently unproven. The future of atrial fibrillation detection tools and atrial fibrillation detection strategies will be influenced by ongoing studies exploring whether oral anticoagulations reduce the incidence of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation burden lower than 24 h.

Expert opinion paper on atrial fibrillation detection after ischemic stroke

This expert opinion paper on atrial fibrillation detection after ischemic stroke includes a statement of the "Heart and Brain" consortium of the German Cardiac Society and the German Stroke Society. This paper was endorsed by the Stroke Unit-Commission of the German Stroke Society and the German Atrial Fibrillation NETwork. In patients with ischemic stroke, detection of atrial fibrillation should usually lead to a change in secondary stroke prevention, since oral anticoagulation is superior to antiplatelet drugs. The detection of previously undiagnosed atrial fibrillation can be improved in patients with ischemic stroke to optimize stroke prevention. This paper summarizes the present knowledge on atrial fibrillation detection after ischemic stroke. We propose an interdisciplinary standard for a "structured analysis of ECG monitoring" on the stroke unit as well as a staged diagnostic scheme for the detection of atrial fibrillation. Since the optimal duration and mode of ECG monitoring has not yet been finally established, this paper is intended to give advice to physicians who are involved in stroke care. In line with the nature of an expert opinion paper, labeling of classes of recommendations is not provided, since many statements are based on the expert opinion, reported case series and clinical experience. Therefore, this paper is not intended as a guideline.

A protocol for a prospective observational study using chest and thumb ECG: transient ECG assessment in stroke evaluation (TEASE) in Sweden

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) causes ischaemic stroke and based on risk factor evaluation warrants anticoagulation therapy. In stroke survivors, AF is typically detected with short-term ECG monitoring in the stroke unit. Prolonged continuous ECG monitoring requires substantial resources while insertable cardiac monitors are invasive and costly. Chest and thumb ECG could provide an alternative for AF detection poststroke.The primary objective of our study is to assess the incidence of newly diagnosed AF during 28 days of chest and thumb ECG monitoring in cryptogenic stroke. Secondary objectives are to assess health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using short-form health survey (SF-36) and the feasibility of the Coala Heart Monitor in patients who had a stroke.

METHODS

Stroke survivors in Region Gävleborg, Sweden, will be eligible for the study from October 2017. Patients with a history of ischaemic stroke without documented AF before or during ECG evaluation in the stroke unit will be evaluated by the chest and thumb ECG system Coala Heart Monitor. The monitoring system is connected to a smartphone application which allows for remote monitoring and prompt advice on clinical management. Over a period of 28 days, patients will be monitored two times a day and may activate the ECG recording at symptoms. On completion, the system is returned by mail. This system offers a possibility to evaluate the presence of AF poststroke, but the feasibility of this system in patients who recently suffered from a stroke is unknown. In addition, HRQoL using SF-36 in comparison to Swedish population norms will be assessed. The feasibility of the Coala Heart Monitor will be assessed by a self-developed questionnaire.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by The Regional Ethical Committee in Uppsala (2017/321). The database will be closed after the last follow-up, followed by statistical analyses, interpretation of results and dissemination to a scientific journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03301662; Pre-results.

Refinement of detecting atrial fibrillation in stroke patients: results from the TRACK-AF Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Detection of occult atrial fibrillation (AF) is crucial for optimal secondary prevention in stroke patients. The AF detection rate was determined by implantable cardiac monitor (ICM) and compared to the prediction rate of the probability of incident AF by software based analysis of a continuously monitored electrocardiogram at follow-up (stroke risk analysis, SRA); an optimized AF detection algorithm is proposed by combining both tools.

METHODS

In a monocentric prospective study 105 out of 389 patients with cryptogenic stroke despite extensive diagnostic workup were investigated with two additional cardiac monitoring tools: (a) 20 months' monitoring by ICM and (b) SRA during hospitalization at the stroke unit.

RESULTS

The detection rate of occult AF was 18% by ICM (n = 19) (range 6-575 days) and 62% (n = 65) had an increased risk for AF predicted by SRA. When comparing the predictive accuracy of SRA to ICM, the sensitivity was 95%, specificity 35%, positive predictive value 27% and negative predictive value 96%. In 18 patients with AF detected by ICM, SRA also showed a medium risk for AF. Only one patient with a very low risk predicted by SRA developed AF revealed by ICM after 417 days.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of SRA and ICM is a promising strategy to detect occult AF. SRA is reliable in predicting incident AF with a high negative predictive value. Thus, SRA may serve as a cost-effective pre-selection tool identifying patients at risk for AF who may benefit from further cardiac monitoring by ICM.