Pragmatic solutions to reduce the global burden of stroke: a World Stroke Organization-Lancet Neurology Commission

Stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide. The burden of disability after a stroke is also large, and is increasing at a faster pace in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Alarmingly, the incidence of stroke is increasing in young and middle-aged people (ie, age <55 years) globally. Should these trends continue, Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 (reducing the burden of stroke as part of the general target to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases by a third by 2030) will not be met.

In this Commission, we forecast the burden of stroke from 2020 to 2050. We project that stroke mortality will increase by 50%—from 6·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 6·0 million–7·1 million) in 2020, to 9·7 million (8·0 million–11·6 million) in 2050—with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) growing over the same period from 144·8 million (133·9 million–156·9 million) in 2020, to 189·3 million (161·8 million–224·9 million) in 2050. These projections prompted us to do a situational analysis across the four pillars of the stroke quadrangle: surveillance, prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation. We have also identified the barriers to, and facilitators for, the achievement of these four pillars. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) The sum of the years of life lost as a result of premature mortality from a disease and the years lived with a disability associated with prevalent cases of the disease in a population. One DALY represents the loss of the equivalent of one year of full health

On the basis of our assessment, we have identified and prioritised several recommendations. For each of the four pillars (surveillance, prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation), we propose pragmatic solutions for the implementation of evidence-based interventions to reduce the global burden of stroke. The estimated direct (ie, treatment and rehabilitation) and indirect (considering productivity loss) costs of stroke globally are in excess of US$891 billion annually. The pragmatic solutions we put forwards for urgent implementation should help to mitigate these losses, reduce the global burden of stroke, and contribute to achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, the WHO Intersectoral Global Action Plan on epilepsy and other neurological disorders (2022–2031), and the WHO Global Action Plan for prevention and control of non-communicable diseases.

Reduction of the global burden of stroke, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, by implementing primary and secondary stroke prevention strategies and evidence-based acute care and rehabilitation services is urgently required. Measures to facilitate this goal include: the establishment of a framework to monitor and assess the burden of stroke (and its risk factors) and stroke services at a national level; the implementation of integrated population-level and individual-level prevention strategies for people at any increased risk of cerebrovascular disease, with emphasis on early detection and control of hypertension; planning and delivery of acute stroke care services, including the establishment of stroke units with access to reperfusion therapies for ischaemic stroke and workforce training and capacity building (and monitoring of quality indicators for these services nationally, regionally, and globally); the promotion of interdisciplinary stroke care services, training for caregivers, and capacity building for community health workers and other health-care providers working in stroke rehabilitation; and the creation of a stroke advocacy and implementation ecosystem that includes all relevant communities, organisations, and stakeholders.

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Cost-Effectiveness of Constraint-Induced Movement Therapy Implementation in Neurorehabilitation: The ACTIveARM Project

BACKGROUND

Constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT) is a recommended intervention for improving arm recovery following stroke and traumatic brain injury; however, delivery in practice remains rare.

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to investigate the costs and cost effectiveness of CIMT delivery, and the use of a CIMT implementation package designed to improve CIMT uptake and delivery by therapists in Sydney, Australia.

METHODS

This economic evaluation was conducted with a subset of CIMT programmes (n = 20) delivered by neurological rehabilitation teams at five varied hospitals within a mixed methods implementation study (ACTIveARM). The costs of delivering the CIMT implementation package and publicly funded CIMT were calculated using a bottom-up approach. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted, using decision analytic modelling. We compared the uptake and outcomes of people who received CIMT from health services that had received a CIMT implementation package, with those receiving standard upper limb therapy. An Australian health care system perspective was used in the model, over a 3-week time horizon (the average timeframe of a CIMT programme). All costs were calculated in Australian dollars (AUD). Inputs were derived from the ACTIveARM study and relevant literature. The Action Research Arm Test was used to measure arm outcomes. Sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of improving CIMT uptake, scale-up of the implementation package and resource adjustment, including a 'best-case' scenario analysis.

RESULTS

The total cost of delivering the implementation package to nine teams across five hospitals was $110,336.43 AUD over 18 months. The mean cost of delivering an individual CIMT programme was $1233.38 AUD per participant, and $936.03 AUD per participant for group-based programmes. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of individual CIMT programmes was $8052 AUD per additional person achieving meaningful improvement in arm function, and $6045 AUD for group-based CIMT. The ICER was most sensitive to reductions in staffing costs. In the 'best-case' scenario, the ICER for both individual and group-based CIMT was $245 AUD per additional person gaining a meaningful change in function.

CONCLUSION

Therapists improved CIMT uptake and delivery with the support of an implementation package, however cost effectiveness was unclear.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

https://anzctr.org.au/Trial ID: ACTRN12617001147370.

Stroke Epidemiology in Oceania: A Review

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Oceania, comprising the regions Australasia, Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia, is home to 42 million living in 8.5 million square kilometres of land. This paper comprises a review of the epidemiology of stroke in countries in this region.

METHODS

Information on epidemiology of stroke in Oceania was sought from data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study (incidence, mortality, incidence:mortality ratio [IMR], prevalence, disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs] lost due to stroke, and subtypes), World Health Organization (WHO) (vascular risk factors in the community), and PubMed (incidence, prevalence, and stroke subtypes). Data were analyzed by region to allow inter-country comparison within each region.

RESULTS

In 2010, age- and sex-standardized stroke mortality rates were lowest in Australasia (29.85-31.67/100,000) and highest in Melanesia and Micronesia (56.04-187.56/100,000), with wide ranges especially in Melanesia. Incidence rates were lowest in Australasia (101.36-105.54/100,000), similarly high elsewhere. Standardized IMR (0.98-3.39) was the inverse of the mortality rates and mirrored the prevalence rates (202.91-522.29/100,000). DALY rates (398.22-3,781.78/100,0000) mirrored the mortality rates. Stroke risk factors show a variable pattern - hypertension is generally the most common medical risk factor among males (18.0-26.6%), while among females, diabetes mellitus is the most common in Micronesia and Polynesia (21.5-28.4%). Among the lifestyle factors, current smoking is the most common in Melanesia among males, while obesity is generally the most common factor among females. Ischaemic stroke comprises 70% of stroke subtypes. Trend data show significant falls in standardized mortality rates and DALYs in most regions and falls in incidence in almost all countries. There is significant economic impact, particularly due to young strokes; some ethnicities are at higher risk than others, for example, Maoris and Pacific Islanders.

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke is a major healthcare problem in Oceania. Variations in stroke epidemiology are found between countries in Oceania. Data are lacking in some; more research into the burden of stroke in Oceania is needed. With the expected increase in life expectancy and vascular risk factors, the burden of stroke in Oceania will likely rise. Some of the disparities in stroke burden may be addressed by great investment in healthcare.

Evaluation of adult stroke presentations at an Emergency Department in Queensland Australia

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity which places high demands on emergency departments (EDs). Currently there is limited data on stroke presentations to Australian EDs and the time performance management of these presentations. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate stroke presentations at an ED in Queensland, Australia in terms of demographics and time performance measures over a five year period.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of ED presentations by patients ≥18 years with a final diagnosis of stroke between 1 July 2010 and 30 June 2015.

RESULTS

Over the five years there was a 51.4% increase in presentations diagnosed with stroke. The majority of these patients arrived by ambulance (71.0%) and were admitted (94.9%) with death in ED for 1.4% of presentations. From 2010 to 2015 for both haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke there was a significant decrease in median LOS in ED (435 to 215 min, p < 0.05 and 451 to 238 min, p < 0.001 respectively) and in the proportion of patients in ED greater than four hours (82.4% to 44%, p < 0.05 and 92.4% to 45.8%,p < 0.0001 respectively).

CONCLUSION

Despite increased presentations of stroke, the ED improved in multiple time performance measures. Improving time-based targets in ED is particularly important for stroke presentations given the time critical nature of stroke management.