The impact of atrial fibrillation and long-term oral anticoagulant use on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: A 12-year evaluation of the prospective Brazilian Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity

Development and Validation of a Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting 3-Month Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Background

Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) carries a substantial risk of mortality, emphasizing the need for effective risk assessment and timely interventions. This study aimed to develop and validate a practical dynamic nomogram for predicting 3-month mortality in AIS patients with AF.

Methods

AIS patients with AF were enrolled and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. The nomogram was developed based on independent risk factors identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The prediction performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

Results

A total of 412 patients with AIS and AF entered final analysis, 288 patients in the training cohort and 124 patients in the validation cohort. The nomogram was developed using age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, early introduction of novel oral anticoagulants, and pneumonia as independent risk factors. The nomogram exhibited good discrimination both in the training cohort (AUC, 0.851; 95% CI, 0.802-0.899) and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.811; 95% CI, 0.706-0.916). The calibration plots, DCA and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was well calibrated and clinically useful, effectively distinguishing the 3-month survival status of patients with AIS and AF, respectively. The dynamic nomogram can be obtained at the website: https://yanxiaodi.shinyapps.io/3-monthmortality/.

Conclusion

The dynamic nomogram represents the first predictive model for 3-month mortality and may contribute to managing the mortality risk of patients with AIS and AF.

Predictive value of functional disability scales among stroke survivors: A long-term mortality evaluation in a Brazilian stroke cohort

OBJECTIVE

To assess the influence of two functional scales- Modified Rankin Scale (m-RS) and Modified Katz Index (m-Katz Index) on long-term mortality in a stroke cohort.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Among 760 stroke survivors (median age: 66 (IQR:56-75), 56.4 % women) m-Katz Index and m-RS scales applied at 1 and 6 months after stroke, were investigated in relation to 12-years of all-cause mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were computed, and time-varying covariate Cox regression models were fitted to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) in all sample and by sex. The prognostic ability of the fitted models was computed for each model by six different measures.

RESULTS

After 12 years of follow-up (median survival time: 7.3 years), 311 participants died. Overall survival curves show lower survival rates among those with the highest levels of disability/dependence (all log-rank p-values <0.0001). These findings were confirmed in all regression models for both sexes, particularly in men who had higher levels of dependence on Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) by m-Katz Index and severe disability by m-RS and presented the highest HR of dying (HR: 3.34 (95 %CI: 2.27-4.92) and HR: 4.94 (95 % CI: 3.15-7.75), respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Both the m-Katz Index and the m-RS scale were good predictors of long-term mortality, which is of importance for guiding the functional rehabilitation of stroke patients. Besides, high levels of disability and dependence were implicated with high mortality risks, regardless of sex.

Association of C-reactive protein level with adverse outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies on the association between C-reactive protein (CRP) level and poor outcomes have been yielded controversial results in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). This meta-analysis sought to investigate the utility of elevated CRP level in predicting adverse outcomes in AF patients.

METHODS

Two authors systematically searched PubMed and Embase databases (until December 10, 2022) for studies evaluating the value of elevated CRP level in predicting all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, stroke, or major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in AF patients. The predictive value of CRP was expressed by pooling adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the highest versus the lowest level or per unit of log-transformed increase.

RESULTS

Ten studies including 30,345 AF patients satisfied our inclusion criteria. For the highest versus the lowest CRP level, the pooled adjusted HR was 1.57 (95% CI 1.34-1.85) for all-cause mortality, 1.18 (95% CI 0.92-1.50) for cardiovascular death, and 1.57 (95% CI 1.10-2.24) for stroke, respectively. When analyzed the CRP level as continuous data, per unit of log-transformed increase was associated with a 27% higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.23-1.32) and 16% higher risk of MACEs (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.05-1.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated CRP level may be an independent predictor of all-cause mortality, stroke, and MACEs in patients with AF. CRP level at baseline can provide important prognostic information in risk classification of AF patients.

Generalisability of and lessons learned from a mixed-methods study conducted in three low- and middle-income countries to identify care pathways for atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Identifying existing care pathways is the first step for understanding how services can be improved to enable early diagnosis and effective follow-up care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, evidence on how care pathways can and should be identified in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To describe generalisability and lessons learned from recruitment and data collection for the quantitative component of a mixed methods study designed to determine the care pathway for atrial fibrillation (AF) in Brazil, China and Sri Lanka.

METHODS

Adults (≥18 years) that spoke the local language and with an AF diagnosis were eligible. We excluded anyone with a hearing or cognitive impairment or ineligible address. Eligible participants were identified using electronic records in Brazil and China; in Sri Lanka, researchers attended the outpatient clinics to identify eligible participants. Data were collected using two quantitative questionnaires administered at least 2-months apart. A minimum sample size of 238 was required for each country.

RESULTS

The required sample size was met in Brazil (n = 267) and China (n = 298), but a large proportion of AF patients could not be contacted (47% and 27%, respectively) or refused to participate (36% and 38%, respectively). In Sri Lanka, recruitment was challenging, resulting in a reduced sample (n = 151). Mean age of participants from Brazil, China and Sri Lanka was 69 (SD = 11.3), 65 (SD = 12.8) and 58 (SD = 11.7), respectively. Females accounted for 49% of the Brazil sample, 62% in China and 70% in Sri Lanka.

CONCLUSIONS

Generalisability was an issue in Brazil and China, as was selection bias. Recruitment bias was highlighted in Sri Lanka. Additional or alternative recruitment methods may be required to ensure generalisability and reduce bias in future studies aimed at identifying NCD care pathways in LMICs.

Identifying and understanding the care pathway of patients with atrial fibrillation in Brazil and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for stroke. To enable improvements to AF diagnosis and follow-up care, understanding current patient pathways and barriers to optimal care are essential. We investigated the patient care pathways and their drivers, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patient pathways in a middle-income country setting, Brazil.

METHODS

This mixed-methods study in São Paulo, included adults (≥18y) with AF from 13 primary/secondary healthcare facilities. Surveys using baseline, follow-up (administered ≥two months after baseline) and COVID-19 questionnaires (quantitative), and three focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted. Minimum sample size for the quantitative component was 236 and we aimed to reach saturation with at least three FGDs for the qualitative component. Descriptive statistics were used for quantitative data and a content analysis was used for qualitative data to identify themes related to AF diagnosis and follow-up care.

RESULTS

267 participants completed the baseline questionnaire: 25% were diagnosed in primary care, 65% in an emergency or inpatient department. At follow-up (n = 259), 31% visited more than one facility for AF care, and 7% had no follow-up. Intervals between international normalised ratio (INR) tests were increased during the pandemic, and the number of healthcare visits and availability of medication were reduced. Seventeen patients participated in three FGDs and revealed that AF diagnosis often occurred following a medical emergency and patients often delay care-seeking due to misconceptions about AF symptoms. Long waiting times, doctor/patient interactions and health system factors, such as doctor availability and the referral system, influence where participants visited for follow-up care.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of public awareness and underdeveloped primary healthcare lead to delayed diagnosis, which impacts clinical outcomes and excess patient and healthcare system costs. Health system, care-provider, and pandemic factors disrupt timely and effective continuity of care.

Cerebrovascular risk factors and their time-dependent effects on stroke survival in the EMMA cohort study

To investigate the time-dependent effects of traditional risk factors on functional disability in all-cause mortality post-stroke, we evaluated data from a long-term stroke cohort. Baseline cerebrovascular risk factors (CVRF) and functionality at 1 and 6 months were evaluated in survivors from a prospective stroke cohort using the modified Rankin scale (m-RS), which classifies participants as improvement of disability, unchanged disability (at least moderate), and worsening disability. Cox regression models considering baseline risk factors, medication use, and functionality 6 months after stroke were fitted to identify their time-dependent effects up to 12 years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) are presented. Among 632 survivors (median age 68, 54% male, 71% first-ever episode), age and functional disability (unchanged and worsening) 6 months after ischemic stroke had time-dependent effects on all-cause mortality risk up to 12 years of follow-up. The most impacting risk factors were unchanged (at least moderate) (HR, 2.99; 95%CI: 1.98-4.52) and worsening disability (HR, 2.85; 95%CI: 1.26-6.44), particularly in the first two years after a stroke event (Time 1: ≥6 mo to <2.5 y). Worsening disability also impacted mortality in the period from ≥2.5 to <7.5 years (Time 2) of follow-up (HR, 2.43 (95%CI: 1.03-5.73). Other baseline factors had a fixed high-risk effect on mortality during follow-up. Post-stroke and continuous medication use had a fixed protective effect on mortality. Functional disability was the main contributor with differential risks of mortality up to 12 years of follow-up.

Efficacy and Safety of Anticoagulant Therapy Versus Antiplatelet Therapy in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

The efficacy and safety of anticoagulant therapy in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and atrial fibrillation (AF) remain uncertain. This study enrolled 431 AIS and AF patients from Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital between January 2019 and December 2021 and followed for 365 days to determine the associations between anticoagulants and clinical outcomes by assessing modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, recurrent ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (IS/SE), all-cause mortality, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) and major bleeding. Final analysis included 400 eligible patients and divided them into antiplatelet group (n  =  191) and anticoagulant group (n  =  209). Anticoagulant therapy was associated with excellent (mRS 0-1; adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 2.63; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.61-4.30) and favorable functional outcomes (mRS 0-2; aOR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.69-4.70) and lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 0.35; 95% CI, 0.21-0.57), ICH (aHR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23-0.87) and major bleeding (aHR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.28-0.94), without increasing the risk of recurrent IS/SE (aHR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.45-1.24). In conclusion, anticoagulant therapy may be a more effective and safer option than antiplatelet therapy for AIS patients with AF.

Integrated analysis of the lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA network based on competing endogenous RNA in atrial fibrillation

Objective

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play pivotal roles in the transcriptional regulation of atrial fibrillation (AF) by acting as competing endogenous RNAs (ceRNAs). In the present study, the expression levels of lncRNAs of sinus rhythm (SR) patients and AF patients were investigated with transcriptomics technology, and the lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA network based on the ceRNA theory in AF was elaborated.

Methods

Left atrial appendage (LAA) tissues were obtained from patients with valvular heart disease during cardiac surgery, and they were divided into SR and AF groups. The expression characterizations of differentially expressed (DE) lncRNAs in the two groups were revealed by high-throughput sequencing methods. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses were performed, and the lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA-mediated ceRNA network was constructed.

Results

A total of differentially expressed 82 lncRNAs, 18 miRNAs, and 495 mRNAs in human atrial appendage tissues were targeted. Compared to SR patients, the following changes were found in AF patients: 32 upregulated and 50 downregulated lncRNAs; 7 upregulated and 11 downregulated miRNAs; and 408 upregulated and 87 downregulated mRNAs. A lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA network was constructed, which included 44 lncRNAs, 18 miRNAs, and 347 mRNAs. qRT-PCR was performed to verify these findings. GO and KEGG analyses suggested that inflammatory response, chemokine signaling pathway, and other biological processes play important roles in the pathogenesis of AF. Network analysis based on the ceRNA theory identified that lncRNA XR_001750763.2 and Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) compete for binding to miR-302b-3p. In AF patients, lncRNA XR_001750763.2 and TLR2 were upregulated, and miR-302b-3p was downregulated.

Conclusion

We identified a lncRNA XR_001750763.2/miR-302b-3p/TLR2 network based on the ceRNA theory in AF. The present study shed light on the physiological functions of lncRNAs and provided information for exploring potential treatments for AF.

Prevalence, risk factors, and prediction of inappropriate use of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in elderly Chinese patients with atrial fibrillation: A study protocol

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an arrhythmia that is prevalent globally, and its incidence grows exponentially with aging. Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have been developed in recent years, and it challenges the supremacy of warfarin for thromboembolism prophylaxis in AF. Nevertheless, there are limited data specifically evaluating the real-life use of NOACs in elderly patients with AF in China.

Methods

This is a national, multicenter, non-interventional, cross-sectional study that enrolls patients with AF aged 75 years and above from 31 institutions across China. Data were collected using the Hospital Information System. The primary outcomes include (1) profiles of NOAC use in the elderly; (2) frequency of inappropriate NOAC use based on guidelines and approved labeling recommendations; (3) exploring potential risk factors related to NOACs inappropriate use; and (4) creating a prediction tool for inappropriate NOACs use.

Conclusion

The results of this study reveal the prevalence, risk factors, and corresponding prediction tool of inappropriate NOACs use in older patients with AF in China, as well as provide valuable insights into the clinical application of NOACs in high-risk populations in the real-world setting.

Clinical trial registration

www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT 05361889.