Predicting 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis: An exploratory analysis of process of care and patient characteristics

Systematic Literature Review of the Association of Fever and Elevated Temperature with Outcomes in Critically Ill Adult Patients

Although most commonly associated with infection, elevated temperature and fever also occur in a variety of critically ill populations. Prior studies have suggested that fever and elevated temperature may be detrimental to critically ill patients and can lead to poor outcomes, but the evidence surrounding the association of fever with outcomes is rapidly evolving. To broadly assess potential associations of elevated temperature and fever with outcomes in critically ill adult patients, we performed a systematic literature review focusing on traumatic brain injury, stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic), cardiac arrest, sepsis, and general intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Searches were conducted in Embase® and PubMed® from 2016 to 2021, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, including dual-screening of abstracts, full texts, and extracted data. In total, 60 studies assessing traumatic brain injury and stroke (24), cardiac arrest (8), sepsis (22), and general ICU (6) patients were included. Mortality, functional, or neurological status and length of stay were the most frequently reported outcomes. Elevated temperature and fever were associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury, stroke, and cardiac arrest but not in patients with sepsis. Although a causal relationship between elevated temperature and poor outcomes cannot be definitively established, the association observed in this systematic literature review supports the concept that management of elevated temperature may factor in avoidance of detrimental outcomes in multiple critically ill populations. The analysis also highlights gaps in our understanding of fever and elevated temperature in critically ill adult patients.

Prevalence and Outcome of Sepsis: Mortality and Prolonged Intensive Care Unit Stay among Sepsis Patients Admitted to a Tertiary Centre in Malaysia

Background

Sepsis and septic shock are the leading causes of critical care-related mortality worldwide. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of sepsis, its intensive care unit (ICU) mortality rate and the factors associated with both ICU mortality and prolonged stay.

Methods

A prospective cohort study was conducted from January 2019 to December 2019 with adult patients presenting evidence of sepsis who were admitted to the ICU. Parameters were assessed in the ICU to determine the association with all-cause ICU mortality and prolonged stay.

Results

Out of 607 adults, 292 with sepsis were admitted to the ICU in 2019, with a mean age of 50.98 (standard deviation [SD] = 17.75) years old. There was, thus, a 48% incidence of sepsis. Mortality was observed in 78 patients (mortality rate = 26.7%) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.7, 32.2). Patients with higher Glasgow coma scale (GCS) scores had lower odds of ICU mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.98; P = 0.019), while patients with higher sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores had higher odds (adjusted OR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.35; P < 0.001). Eighty patients (37.4%) who survived had prolonged ICU stays (95% CI: 30.9, 44.2). Patients with higher albumin levels had lower odds of a prolonged ICU stay (adjusted OR = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90, 0.98; P = 0.006) and patients on renal replacement therapy had higher odds of a prolonged ICU stay (adjusted OR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.74, 7.12; P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Our study identified a sepsis prevalence of 48% and an ICU mortality rate of 26.7% among adult patients admitted to the ICU. GCS and SOFA scores were the most important factors associated with ICU mortality.

One-year hospital readmission for recurrent sepsis: associated risk factors and impact on 1-year mortality-a French nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a complex health condition, leading to long-term morbidity and mortality. Understanding the risk factors for recurrent sepsis, as well as its impact on mid- and long-term mortality among other risk factors, is essential to improve patient survival.

METHODS

A risk factor analysis, based on French nationwide medico-administrative data, was conducted on a cohort of patients above 15 years old, hospitalized with an incident sepsis in metropolitan France between 1st January 2018 and 31st December 2018 and who survived their index hospitalization. Two main analyses, focusing on outcomes occurring 1-year post-discharge, were conducted: a first one to assess risk factors for recurrent sepsis and a second to assess risk factors for mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 178017 patients surviving an incident sepsis episode in 2018 and included in this study, 22.3% died during the 1-year period from discharge and 73.8% had at least one hospital readmission in acute care, among which 18.1% were associated with recurrent sepsis. Patients aged between 56 and 75, patients with cancer and renal disease, with a long index hospital stay or with mediastinal or cardiac infection had the highest odds of recurrent sepsis. One-year mortality was higher for patients with hospital readmission for recurrent sepsis (aOR 2.93; 99% CI 2.78-3.09). Among all comorbidities, patients with cancer (aOR 4.35; 99% CI 4.19-4.52) and dementia (aOR 2.02; 99% CI 1.90-2.15) had the highest odds of 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSION

Hospital readmission for recurrent sepsis is one of the most important risk factors for 1-year mortality of septic patients, along with age and comorbidities. Our study suggests that recurrent sepsis, as well as modifiable or non-modifiable other risk factors identified, should be considered in order to improve patient care pathway and survival.

The In Vivo and In Vitro Assessment of Pyocins in Treating Pseudomonas aeruginosa Infections

Pseudomonas aeruginosa can cause several life-threatening infections among immunocompromised patients (e.g., cystic fibrosis) due to its ability to adapt and develop resistance to several antibiotics. In recent years, P. aeruginosa infections has become difficult to treat using conventional antibiotics due to the increase multidrug-resistant P. aeruginosa strains. Therefore, there is a growing interest to develop novel treatments against antibiotic-resistance P. aeruginosa strains. One novel method includes the application of antimicrobial peptides secreted by P. aeruginosa strains, known as pyocins. In this review, we will discuss the structure, function, and use of pyocins in the pathogenesis and treatment of P. aeruginosa infection.

Role of Procalcitonin in Predicting Mortality and Organ Dysfunction at Intensive Care Admission

Objective

To assess the prognostic utility of procalcitonin (PCT) in high-risk sepsis patients.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted with the inclusion of all eligible intensive care unit patients with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score of 2 or more.

Results

A total of 228 patients were acquired from January 2018 to December 2020, with male predominant (58.8%), mean age of 53.61 years old. The overall 28-day mortality was 57.5%. In the group with PCT ≥ 7 ng/mL, 28-day mortality was 68.5% (87 patients out of a total of 127). Cox regression showed that in this group, the risk of mortality occurring within 28 days from the day of ICU admission was 1.55 times higher (95% CI 1.074–2252, p value 0.02). Independent sample t-test showed that in this group, the mean SOFA score was higher by 2.279 (95% CI 1.497–3.060, p value <0.001).

Conclusion

Procalcitonin levels are associated with mortality and SOFA scores in sepsis patients. Further studies need to be carried out to provide more evidence so that it can help reduce the mortality and morbidity of sepsis.

An Exploratory Analysis of the Association between Hypercapnia and Hospital Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Sepsis

Rationale: Hypercapnia may affect the outcome of sepsis. Very few clinical studies conducted in noncritically ill patients have investigated the effects of hypercapnia and hypercapnic acidemia in the context of sepsis. The effect of hypercapnia in critically ill patients with sepsis remains inadequately studied. Objectives: To investigate the association of hypercapnia with hospital mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis. Methods: This is a retrospective study conducted in three tertiary public hospitals. Critically ill patients with sepsis from three intensive care units between January 2011 and May 2019 were included. Five cohorts (exposure of at least 24, 48, 72, 120, and 168 hours) were created to account for immortal time bias and informative censoring. The association between hypercapnia exposure and hospital mortality was assessed with multivariable models. Subgroup analyses compared ventilated versus nonventilated and pulmonary versus nonpulmonary sepsis patients. Results: We analyzed 84,819 arterial carbon dioxide pressure measurements in 3,153 patients (57.6% male; median age was 62.5 years). After adjustment for key confounders, both in mechanically ventilated and nonventilated patients and in patients with pulmonary or nonpulmonary sepsis, there was no independent association of hypercapnia with hospital mortality. In contrast, in ventilated patients, the presence of prolonged exposure to both hypercapnia and acidemia was associated with increased mortality (highest odds ratio of 16.5 for ⩾120 hours of potential exposure; P = 0.007). Conclusions: After adjustment, isolated hypercapnia was not associated with increased mortality in patients with sepsis, whereas prolonged hypercapnic acidemia was associated with increased risk of mortality. These hypothesis-generating observations suggest that as hypercapnia is not an independent risk factor for mortality, trials of permissive hypercapnia avoiding or minimizing acidemia in sepsis may be safe.

Heart rate n-variability (HRnV) measures for prediction of mortality in sepsis patients presenting at the emergency department

Sepsis is a potentially life-threatening condition that requires prompt recognition and treatment. Recently, heart rate variability (HRV), a measure of the cardiac autonomic regulation derived from short electrocardiogram tracings, has been found to correlate with sepsis mortality. This paper presents using novel heart rate n-variability (HRnV) measures for sepsis mortality risk prediction and comparing against current mortality prediction scores. This study was a retrospective cohort study on patients presenting to the emergency department of a tertiary hospital in Singapore between September 2014 to April 2017. Patients were included if they were above 21 years old and were suspected of having sepsis by their attending physician. The primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality. Stepwise multivariable logistic regression model was built to predict the outcome, and the results based on 10-fold cross-validation were presented using receiver operating curve analysis. The final predictive model comprised 21 variables, including four vital signs, two HRV parameters, and 15 HRnV parameters. The area under the curve of the model was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.70–0.84), outperforming several established clinical scores. The HRnV measures may have the potential to allow for a rapid, objective, and accurate means of patient risk stratification for sepsis severity and mortality. Our exploration of the use of wealthy inherent information obtained from novel HRnV measures could also create a new perspective for data scientists to develop innovative approaches for ECG analysis and risk monitoring.

A Point-of-Care Serum Lactate Level and Mortality in Adult Sepsis Patients: A Community Hospital Setting

Introduction:

Sepsis is a serious and emergency condition that may lead to acute circulatory failure associated with infection. Serum lactate level of over 4 mmol/L is associated with sepsis mortality. However, there is limited data on using a point of care (POC) for fingertip lactate level on sepsis mortality in community hospital setting. This study aimed to evaluate roles of POC for serum lactate with combination of clinical factors on mortality prediction in sepsis patients.

Methods:

This was a retrospective cohort study conducted at 7 community hospitals. The inclusion criteria were adult patients with diagnosis of sepsis who were tested for POC lactate level. Electronic chart reviews of eligible patients were performed. Predictors for mortality were computed using clinical factors and POC lactate level.

Results:

There were 1641 patients met the study criteria. The mortality rate was 8.96% (147 patients). There were 3 independent factors associated with mortality: age, co-morbid diseases, and POC lactate level. The adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) of POC lactate level was 1.025 (1.002, 1.048). The cut point of serum lactate was 1.6 mmol/L gave sensitivity of 79.59% and specificity of 32.10%.

Conclusion:

POC serum lactate level may be associated with mortality in sepsis patients at community hospitals. Lactate level of 1.6 mmol/L may be an indicator for mortality with good sensitivity. Physicians may consider more aggressive and prompt management in individuals with sepsis and POC serum lactate of 1.6 mmol/L or over.

Assessment of the Clinical Interpreter of Death in Life-Threatening Infective Cases Admitted in the Intensive Care Unit of a North-Eastern State of India

Objectives

The clinical factors affecting a patient's condition monitored over time could be useful not only to decide on an intervention that may increase the patients' possibilities of survival but also to predict the treatment outcome. Therefore, this study evaluates the clinical factors as predictors of mortality among severe sepsis patients admitted in the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary care center.

Method

We did a prospective study on over 50 life-threatening infective cases with different causes admitted in the ICU. Clinical and biochemical parameters like temperature, heart rate, blood pressure, bicarbonate levels, blood lactate levels, and pH were monitored at admission, after 24 hours, and after 72 hours. The statistical analysis was done using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, WA) and the Statistical Package for the Social Studies (SPSS) version 22 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY). We have obtained ethical clearance from the ethics committee (human) of Assam Medical College and Hospital, Dibrugarh. Before the collection of the data, we also took informed consent from the participants.

Results

The mean age of non-survivors was 44.35±11.64 years and that of survivors was 36.60±9.28 years, and the difference was statistically significant (p-value <0.003). An analysis of values of the various vital signs indicated substantial differences in the mean at different time intervals among survivors and non-survivors (p-value <0.05). Among non-survivors, mean temperature, pulse, and rate of respiration were observed to increase over time while blood pressure and oxygen saturation levels were significantly decreasing. Compared to survivors, the mean lactate levels of non-survivors at different time intervals were statistically significant (p-value <0.05). It is also observed that the pH of non-survivors was lower than survivors, and the mean pH value significantly different at different time intervals among the two groups (p-value <0.05).

Conclusion

The temperature, pulse, rate of respiration, blood pressure, and oxygen saturation levels are essential determinants of patient mortality in those suffering from a severe infection, besides serial lactate levels, bi-carbonate levels, and pH levels.

What Do We Know about Early Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock in Polish Hospitals? A Questionnaire Study

Background: Sepsis and septic shock are medical emergencies with a high risk of poor prognosis. We investigate the correspondence between Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) guidelines and clinical practice in Poland, with special attention given to differences between ICU and non-ICU environments as well as regional variations within the country. Methods: A web-based questionnaire study was performed on a random sample of 60 hospitals from the three most populated regions in Poland—Masovia, Silesia, and Greater Poland. A 19-item questionnaire was built based on the most recent edition of SSC guidelines. Results: Sepsis diagnosis was primarily based on clinical evaluation (ICUs: 94%, non-ICUs: 62%; p = 0.02). There were significant differences between ICUs and non-ICUs regarding taking blood cultures for pathogen identification (2-times more frequent in ICUs) and having hospital-based operating procedures to adjust antimicrobial treatment to a clinical scenario (a difference of 17%). Modification of empiric antimicrobial treatment was required post-ICU admission in 70% of cases. ICUs differed from non-ICUs with regard to the methods of fluid responsiveness assessment and the types of catecholamines and fluids used to treat septic shock. The mean fluid load applied before the implementation of catecholamines was 25.8 ± 10.6 mL/kg. Norepinephrine was the first-line agent used to treat shock, and balanced crystalloids were preferred in both ICUs and non-ICUs. Conclusion: Compliance with SCC guidelines in Polish hospitals is insufficient, especially outside ICUs. There is a need for education among healthcare professionals to reach at least an acceptable level of knowledge and attitude in this field.

Survival prediction of patients with sepsis from age, sex, and septic episode number alone

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition caused by an exaggerated reaction of the body to an infection, that leads to organ failure or even death. Since sepsis can kill a patient even in just one hour, survival prediction is an urgent priority among the medical community: even if laboratory tests and hospital analyses can provide insightful information about the patient, in fact, they might not come in time to allow medical doctors to recognize an immediate death risk and treat it properly. In this context, machine learning can be useful to predict survival of patients within minutes, especially when applied to few medical features easily retrievable. In this study, we show that it is possible to achieve this goal by applying computational intelligence algorithms to three features of patients with sepsis, recorded at hospital admission: sex, age, and septic episode number. We applied several data mining methods to a cohort of 110,204 admissions of patients, and obtained high prediction scores both on this complete dataset (top precision-recall area under the curve PR AUC = 0.966) and on its subset related to the recent Sepsis-3 definition (top PR AUC = 0.860). Additionally, we tested our models on an external validation cohort of 137 patients, and achieved good results in this case too (top PR AUC = 0.863), confirming the generalizability of our approach. Our results can have a huge impact on clinical settings, allowing physicians to forecast the survival of patients by sex, age, and septic episode number alone.

Early recognition of surgical patients with sepsis: Contribution of nursing records

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to analyze the contribution of nursing records to the early identification and management of sepsis in surgical patients at a university hospital.

METHOD

This is a study with a quantitative, retrospective, descriptive, and correlational design. Data collection was performed through hospital information systems in the first semester of 2017 with the approval of the research ethics committee. We included 28 patients who met the inclusion criteria of the study.

RESULTS

The analysis of the content of the records evidenced the development of the first signs of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and organ dysfunction until the fifth day of hospitalization in 19 patients (67.8%). Confirmation or hypothesis of sepsis diagnosis occurred until the 10th day of hospitalization in 15 patients (53.5%). The analysis of the content of the records showed that the first signs of SIRS were predominantly identified in the electronic patient monitoring system in 26 cases (92.9%), whereas the first signs of organ dysfunction were described in the nursing staff records in 24 patients (85.7%).

CONCLUSION

The results confirm the importance of the quality of nursing records for risk identification, early recognition, and proper management of sepsis in surgical patients, aiming at achieving greater effectiveness in the management of healthcare processes.

The therapeutic efficacy of adjunct therapeutic plasma exchange for septic shock with multiple organ failure: a single-center experience

Background

Sepsis remains a common condition with high mortality when multiple organ failure develops. The evidence for therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) in this setting is promising but inconclusive. Our study aims to evaluate the efficacy of adjunct TPE for septic shock with multiple organ failure compared to standard therapy alone.

Methods

A retrospective, observational chart review was performed, evaluating outcomes of patients with catecholamine-resistant septic shock and multiple organ failure in intensive care units at a tertiary care hospital in Winston-Salem, NC, from August 2015 to March 2019. Adult patients with catecholamine-resistant septic shock (≥ 2 vasopressors) and evidence of multiple organ failure were included. Patients who received adjunct TPE were identified and compared to patients who received standard care alone. A propensity score using age, gender, chronic co-morbidities (HTN, DM, CKD, COPD), APACHE II score, SOFA score, lactate level, and number of vasopressors was used to match patients, resulting in 40 patients in each arm.

Results

The mean baseline APACHE II and SOFA scores were 32.5 and 14.3 in TPE patients versus 32.7 and 13.8 in control patients, respectively. The 28-day mortality rate was 40% in the TPE group versus 65% in the standard care group (p = 0.043). Improvements in baseline SOFA scores at 48 h were greater in the TPE group compared to standard care alone (p = 0.001), and patients receiving adjunct TPE had a more favorable fluid balance at 48 h (p = 0.01). Patients receiving adjunct TPE had longer ICU and hospital lengths of stay (p = 0.003 and p = 0.006, respectively).

Conclusions

Our retrospective, observational study in adult patients with septic shock and multiple organ failure demonstrated improved 28-day survival with adjunct TPE compared to standard care alone. Hemodynamics, organ dysfunction, and fluid balance all improved with adjunct TPE, while lengths of stay were increased in survivors. The study design does not allow for a generalized statement of support for TPE in all cases of sepsis with multiple organ failure but offers valuable information for a prospective, randomized clinical trial.

A Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Albumin in Septic Shock: A Patient-level Data Analysis

PURPOSE

Albumin-based fluid therapy in septic shock is a matter of debate and criticism. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of albumin therapy in patients with septic shock.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Imam Khomeini, Sina, and Shariati hospitals on patients with septic shock admitted to intensive care units from March 31, 2016 to September 22, 2017. Data sources were the health information system database and patient medical records. The patients with potential septic shock were identified based on norepinephrine use. Septic shock was confirmed after medical record review based on systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria, antibiotic use, and fluid therapy. Patients who received albumin in the fluid therapy were compared with patients treated without albumin. The 28-day mortality, life-year gain, and cost-effectiveness were evaluated.

FINDINGS

The addition of albumin had no significant increase in life-year gain (mean difference = 0.67; 95% CI, -2.25 to 3.58). However, the addition of albumin increased the total cost of treatment by US $3846.07 (95% CI, US $2093.46-US $5598.98). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio calculated based on the mean life-years gained was US$5740.40 per a life-year gained. The net monetary benefit was negative (-355.4; 95% CI, -15,387.61 to 14,676.81), and the probability that the addition of albumin will be cost-effective at a gross domestic product per capita was 40.0%.

IMPLICATIONS

Albumin-based fluid therapy does not improve the 28-day mortality of patients with septic shock. The addition of albumin in the fluid therapy of patients with septic shock was not cost-effective. Both the observational and retrospective nature of the study was expected to introduce bias. We recommend a cost-effectiveness analysis combined with clinical trials to settle the debate once and for all.

Predictors of 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Undergoing Urgent Abdominal Surgery Due to Acute Peritonitis Complicated with Sepsis

Background

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition with high morbidity and mortality rate. Identifying early prediction factors of critical situations in intra-abdominal sepsis patients can help reduce mortality rates. This prospective study was carried out to evaluate the association of technically available factors with 30-day in-hospital mortality.

Material/Methods

There were 67 intra-abdominal sepsis patients included in the study; patients were observed for 30 days postoperatively. The data was processed using SPSS24.0 statistical analysis package. All tests that had a significance level of 0.05 were selected.

Results

Septic shock in association with increase in age per year showed increase the odds of mortality and prognosed 30-days in hospital mortality correctly in 79% of cases. The observed OR was 12.24 (P<0.001). Multiple logistic regression model 2 for the 30-day mortality identified a combination of septic shock, age (≥70 years), time from peritonitis symptoms to surgery prognose mortality with accuracy of 82%. The most accurate model to prognose 30-day in-hospital mortality included the presents of septic shock, age, time from peritonitis symptoms to surgery, drop of MAP <65 mmHg) post-induction, the odds of mortality 8.86 (P=0.001). Severe hypotension post-induction was more frequent in patients who were not diagnosed with sepsis (P=0.035).

Conclusions

The present study revealed a simple indicator for the risk for death under diffuse peritonitis patients complicated with sepsis. Septic shock, increase in age per year, peritonitis symptoms lasting more than 30 hours, and severe hypotension post-induction had a negative prognostic value for mortality in patients with intra-abdominal sepsis, and might be a high risk for 30-day mortality.

Delay of appropriate antibiotic treatment is associated with high mortality in patients with community-onset sepsis in a Swedish setting

Early appropriate antimicrobial therapy is crucial in patients with sepsis and septic shock. Studies often focus on time to first dose of appropriate antibiotics, but subsequent dosing is equally important. Our aim was to investigate the impact of fulfillment of early treatment, with focus on appropriate administration of first and second doses of antibiotics, on 28-day mortality in patients with community-onset severe sepsis and septic shock. A retrospective study on adult patients admitted to the emergency department with community-onset sepsis and septic shock was conducted 2012–2013. The criterion “early appropriate antibiotic treatment” was defined as administration of the first dose of adequate antibiotics within 1 h, and the second dose given with less than 25% delay after the recommended dose interval. A high-risk patient was defined as a septic patient with either shock within 24 h after arrival or red triage level on admittance according to the Medical Emergency Triage and Treatment System Adult. Primary endpoint was 28-day mortality. Of 90 patients, less than one in four (20/87) received early appropriate antibiotic treatment, and only one in three (15/44) of the high-risk patients. The univariate analysis showed a more than threefold higher mortality among high-risk patients not receiving early appropriate antibiotic treatment. Multivariable analysis identified early non-appropriate antibiotic treatment as an independent predictor of mortality with an odds ratio for mortality of 10.4. Despite that the importance of early antibiotic treatment has been established for decades, adherence to this principle was very poor.