Comprehensive analysis of prognostic value of lymph node classifications in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a large real-world multicenter study

Construction and validation of a nomogram based on the log odds of positive lymph nodes to predict cancer-specific survival in patients with small cell lung cancer after surgery

Background

The lymph node ratio (LNR) is useful for predicting survival in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC). The present study compared the effectiveness of the N stage, number of positive LNs (NPLNs), LNR, and log odds of positive LNs (LODDS) to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with SCLC.

Materials and methods

674 patients were screened using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. The Kaplan-Meier survival and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to address optimal estimation of the N stage, NPLNs, LNR, and LODDS to predict CSS. The optimal LN status group was incorporated into a nomogram to estimate CSS in SCLC patients. The ROC curve, decision curve analysis, and calibration plots were utilized to test the discriminatory ability and accuracy of this nomogram.

Results

The LODDS model showed the highest accuracy compared to the N stage, NPLNs, and LNR in predicting CSS for SCLC patients. LODDS, age, sex, tumor size, and radiotherapy status were included in the nomogram. The results of calibration plots provided evidences of nice consistency. The ROC and DCA plots suggested a better discriminatory ability and clinical applicability of this nomogram than the 8th TNM and SEER staging systems.

Conclusions

LODDS demonstrated a better predictive power than other LN schemes in SCLC patients after surgery. A novel LODDS-incorporating nomogram was built to predict CSS in SCLC patients after surgery, proving to be more precise than the 8th TNM and SEER staging.

Comparison of lymph node metastasis pattern from esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma versus very low thoracic esophageal squamous cancer: a propensity-matched analysis

Background

The anatomical locations of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (AEG) and very low thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) are similar. This study aimed to evaluate the difference in lymph node metastasis (LNM) distribution between AEG and very low thoracic ESCC.

Methods

Data from 156 Siewert I-II AEG patients and 120 ESCC patients with proximal edges located within 5 cm of the esophagogastric junction (EGJ) and underwent curative surgery from 2010 to 2015 were retrospectively analyzed using propensity score matching (PSM). Five or six baseline variables were included in PSM separately. All patients underwent curative transthoracic surgery and systematic lymphadenectomy. After PSM, LNM rates of major stations were compared using the chi-squared test or Fisher's exact test.

Results

After PSM was performed with covariates (age, sex, T stage, grade, tumor length), 60 pairs of patients were included. The lower mediastinal and total thoracic LNM rates of ESCC were significantly higher than those of AEG (18.3% vs. 3.3%, P=0.019; 25% vs. 3.3%, P=0.002). After further addition of the N stage as a variant to the previous PSM model, we found that the paracardial LNM distribution was significantly different between ESCC and AEG patients (36.1% vs. 19.7%, P=0.043). Among all tumor characteristics, only the T stage was positively correlated with paracardial LNM in ESCC (P=0.010), but not in AEG. In AEG, the median survival was poor for patients with thoracic LNM.

Conclusions

Patients with very low thoracic ESCC exhibit stronger metastatic ability in the lower mediastinal and paracardial nodes than Siewert I-II AEG. However, the pathological metastasis of AEG in thoracic nodes was associated with poor survival outcomes.

A clinical prognostic model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on circulating tumor DNA mutation features

Background

Few predictive models have included circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) indicators to predict prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. Here, we aimed to explore whether ctDNA can be used as a predictive biomarker in nomogram models to predict the prognosis of patients with ESCC.

Methods

We included 57 patients who underwent surgery and completed a 5-year follow-up. With next-generation sequencing, a 61-gene panel was used to evaluate plasma cell-free DNA and white blood cell genomic DNA from patients with ESCC. We analyzed the relationship between the mutation features of ctDNA and the prognosis of patients with ESCC, identified candidate risk predictors by Cox analysis, and developed nomogram models to predict the 2- and 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram model. The model was compared with the traditional tumor-nodes-metastasis (TNM) staging system.

Results

The ROC curve showed that the average mutant allele frequency (MAF) of ctDNA variants and the number of ctDNA variants were potential biomarkers for predicting the prognosis of patients with ESCC. The predictors included in the models were common candidate predictors of ESCC, such as lymph node stage, angiolymphatic invasion, drinking history, and ctDNA characteristics. The calibration curve demonstrated consistency between the observed and predicted results. Moreover, our nomogram models showed clear prognostic superiority over the traditional TNM staging system (based on C-index, 2-year DFS: 0.82 vs. 0.64; 5-year DFS: 0.78 vs. 0.65; 2-year OS: 0.80 vs. 0.66; 5-year OS: 0.77 vs. 0.66; based on IDI, 2-year DFS: 0.33, p <0.001; 5-year DFS: 0.18, p = 0.04; 2-year OS: 0.28, p <0.001; 5-year OS: 0.15, p = 0.04). The comprehensive scores of the nomogram models could be used to stratify patients with ESCC.

Conclusions

The novel nomogram incorporating ctDNA features may help predict the prognosis of patients with resectable ESCC. This model can potentially be used to guide the postoperative management of ESCC patients in the future, such as adjuvant therapy and follow-up.

Prognostic nomogram based on the lymph node metastasis indicators for patients with bladder cancer: A SEER population‐based study and external validation

PURPOSE

This study aimed to compare the prognostic value of multiple lymph node metastasis (LNM) indicators and to develop optimal prognostic nomograms for bladder cancer (BC) patients.

METHODS

BC patients were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015, and randomly partitioned into training and internal validation cohorts. Genomic and clinical data were collected from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) as external validation cohort. The predictive efficiency of LNM indicators was compared by constructing multivariate Cox regression models. We constructed nomograms on basis of the optimal models selected for overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS). The performance of nomograms was evaluated with calibration plot, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) in three cohorts. We subsequently estimated the difference of biological function and tumor immunity between two risk groups stratified by nomograms in TCGA cohort.

RESULTS

Totally, 10,093 and 107 BC patients were screened from the SEER and TCGA databases. N classification, positive lymph nodes (PLNs), lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) were all independent predictors for OS and CSS. The filtered models containing LODDS had minimal Akaike Information Criterion, maximal concordance indexes and AUCs. Age, LODDS, T and M classification were integrated into nomogram for OS, while nomogram for CSS included gender, tumor grade, LODDS, T and M classification. The nomograms were successfully validated in predictive accuracy and clinical utility in three cohorts. Additionally, the tumor microenvironment was different between two risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

LODDS demonstrated superior prognostic performance over N classification, PLN and LNR for OS and CSS of BC patients. The nomograms incorporating LODDS provided appropriate prediction of BC, which could contribute to the tumor assessment and clinical decision-making.

Development and validation of nodal staging score in pN0 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A population study from the SEER database and a single-institution cohort

BACKGROUND

Patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) with lymph node metastasis may be misclassified as pN0 due to an insufficient number of lymph nodes examined (LNE). The purpose of this study was to confirm that patients with ESCC are indeed pN0 and to propose an adequate number for the correct nodal stage using the nodal staging score (NSS) developed by the beta-binomial model.

METHODS

A total of 1249 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2000 and 2017, and 1404 patients diagnosed with ESCC in our database between 2005 and 2018 were included. The NSS was developed to assess the probability of pN0 status based on both databases. The effectiveness of NSS was verified using survival analysis, including Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models.

RESULTS

Many patients were misclassified as pN0 based on our algorithm due to insufficient LNE. As the number of LNE increased, false-negative findings dropped; accordingly, the NSS increased. In addition, NSS was an independent prognostic indicator for pN0 in patients with ESCC in the SEER database (hazard ratio [HR] 0.182, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.046-0.730, p = 0.016) and our database (HR 0.215, 95% CI 0.055-0.842, p = 0.027). A certain number of nodes must be examined to achieve 90% of the NSS.

CONCLUSIONS

NSS could determine the probability of true pN0 status for patients, and it was sufficient in predicting survival and obtaining adequate numbers for lymphadenectomy.

Posttreatment Recurrence and Death Patterns in Patients with Advanced Esophageal Cancer

Objective

To investigate into the clinical factors associated with posttreatment recurrence and death patterns in patients with advanced esophageal cancer.

Methods

Clinical information of patients with recurrence/metastasis and death after radical resection of esophageal cancer at our hospital between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2015, were retrospectively collected and followed up. Postoperative recurrence-free survival time, postrelapse survival time, and overall survival time were compared among the metabolic-associated, organ failure-associated, and anastomotic recurrence-associated mortality groups.

Results

Five hundred and ninety-five qualified patients were retrieved, including 456 males and 139 females, with an average age of 58 ± 7.56 years. There were 57 cases of TNM-1 stage, 131 cases of TNM-2 stage, 365 cases of TNM-3 stage, and 42 cases of TNM-4 stage. There were 547 cases of squamous cell cancer and 48 cases of nonsquamous cell cancer. There were significant differences in age (p < 0.01), tumor location (p < 0.01), and lymph node metastasis (p = 0.04), recurrence type (p < 0.01) by one-way ANOVA, and recurrence-free survival (p = 0.02) and postrecurrence survival (p < 0.01) by Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis among the three main death causes.

Conclusions

Age, tumor location, and lymph node metastasis were significantly different among metabolic-associated, organ failure-associated, and anastomotic recurrence-associated mortality of recurrent EC patients.

Log odds of positive lymph nodes as a novel prognostic predictor for colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most prevalent cancer in the world, which remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths. Accurate prognosis prediction of CRC is pivotal to reduce the mortality and disease burden. Lymph node (LN) metastasis is one of the most commonly used criteria to predict prognosis in CRC patients. However, inaccurate surgical dissection and pathological evaluation may lead to inaccurate nodal staging, affecting the effectiveness of pathological N (pN) classification in survival prediction among patients with CRC. In this meta-analysis, we aimed to estimate the prognostic value of the log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) in patients with CRC.

METHODS

PubMed, Medline, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched for relevant studies from inception to July 3, 2021. Statistical analyses were performed on Stata statistical software Version 16.0 software. To statistically assess the prognostic effects of LODDS, we extracted the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) from the included studies.

RESULTS

Ten eligible articles published in English involving 3523 cases were analyzed in this study. The results showed that LODDS1 and LODDS2 in CRC patients was correlated with poor OS compared with LODDS0 (LODDS1 vs. LODDS0: HR = 1.77, 95% CI (1.38, 2.28); LODDS2 vs. LODDS0: HR = 3.49, 95% CI (2.88, 4.23)). Meanwhile, LODDS1 and LODDS2 in CRC patients was correlated with poor DFS compared with LODDS0 (LODDS1 vs. LODDS0: HR = 1.82, 95% CI (1.23, 2.68); LODDS2 vs. LODDS0: HR =3.30, 95% CI (1.74, 6.27)).

CONCLUSIONS

The results demonstrated that the LODDS stage was associated with prognosis of CRC patients and could accurately predict the prognosis of patients with CRC.